tell you this is urgent. each morning we sit there are intelligence briefing and i'm here today with the urgency and a purpose. right now in some dark corner of the internet that are step-by-step instructions on how to build a bomb with items you could pick up in any hardware store. right now a terrorist recruiter with hate in his heart is feeding allies to a confused teenager.d right now someone in the country is being tested. do they become a soldier for the caliphate, or do they turn away? but working together we can change the outcome, and we can change lives. we are all terrorist prevention stakeholders, even if we don't know it yet. thank you. [applause]

>> thanks, tim. so i am very happy to be a today to introduce amy webb. her title as i understand it is quantitative future futurist se totally has the most interesting time of anybody in this room. she founded the future today institute and she teaches at nyu stern school of business where she studies how technology and science will disrupt business and ignite geopolitical change. where she guides universities, industry and governments on how to navigate thates change. she explores a range of intriguing ideas like what she calls quote, fair and equal codebase, as safeguards against the dangers of online buyers. amy is also an accomplished author. her most recent book, the signals are talking, teaches us how to think like a futurist and how to distinguish the real trends from the merely united states. it was selected as one of fast companies best books.

a brave soul, and he once chronicled her adventures in online dating. as only someone with a degree in game three she crated an algorithm for love. which letter to the love of her life. for those of you who are single you can check out the ted talk on this which got 6 million views. amy will be joined by the tech policy chose for yahoo! news. please welcome rob and the woman who was named by forbes force f the women changing the world through technology, amy webb. [applause] >> thank you. good morning. so time for some game theory? >> i want to start come a naïve question but i want to to level 70 can cipher botnets a lot this morning.

as though this is a new phenomenon. i'd like to take you way back to 2011 when we saw the first emergence of botnets throughout current modern social media. in 2014 there with somebody experimenting with something called the random darknet shopper. how many people in this room have heard about the random darknet shopper? this is a problem. in the year 2014 that botnet was deployed and it wasn't until 2015 that authorities realize that the darknet shopper had bought ecstasy pills and fake hungarian passport. the problem was there was no case law if there was no policy, no thinking around what do we do. to me this is problematic for two reasons. first, i spoke with several different government agencies, including state, about the rant of darknet shopper and that it illuminated two very important things.

first, there such ath thing as a botnet that we all want to be paying attention to. and second, we don't have any thinkingd around botnet because if it botnets can be deployed to purchase stuff illegally, that's hard. spreading misinformation is actually pretty easy. we are now at the four-year anniversary of this botnet, and to my knowledge there is no case law, there is no policy, there is no thinking around the future of botnets. and instead i keep hearing lands to fight something that's already happened -- plans. this is an called important because that technology compared to what's already on the horizon is like child's play. we are entering in an entirely new era of computing, , artificl intelligence. this is not code based. it's not a tech trend. it ise- the third era of computing, and the united states not only doesn't have any realistic depoliticize policy

are thinking around ai and any cohesive way, but we are not pouring the money into this field the way that others are around the world. the problem is thathe at some point everybody is going, somebody's going to decide that this is a problem because some of the country is done something that we don't like. yet again it will wind up being politicized. we don't have office of technology assessment anymore. even the of the country ton around the world, so what winds up happening is we have people who are constantly recognizing far too late that a technology may be can behave in a a way tt we don't like. we don't have any kind of united sought between business and policy. we don't have the funding behind it. and then enters into the court of public opinion where everybody is woefully misinformed. we are not, you, i don't know any of you but you're not anticipating what's coming next. that's going to come back and

bite us all in the ass in a way that is going to become increasingly more uncomfortable. i will just close of this by saying i've yet to meet a public official whose high ranking, who can explain to me what a botnet is, okay? and i meet with them all the time. botnets are easy. you can explain what a botnet is. i haven't yet met a person who can explain to me why artificial, what artificial intelligence is, what it is not, and why it's important. so we can talk about it, but like you're just starting this conference today, and it really concerns me that everybody is fireday up about a technology tt is now four years old in terms of wreaking havoc around in it in ways that seems to be surprising people. >> so the government has been thrown down for the next speaker. you better have some good talking points about botnets. >> it expands when nectar jelly

became this crazy juggernaut. it explainsli what everybody is fixated on the future of jobs with regards to ai when that's not the rightga conversation toe having. it explains why ig seems to be now may be part of our national infrastructure. nobody knows. >> we are definitely touching or that. so let's talk about, i look at this conference, this agenda now compared to to you to go. two years ago people talked about the tech and social media as it's the new public square. people of like-minded interest can find one another. now the discussion is more you ruin everything. history will not be kind to you. what was the trends we missed two years ago that we should have maybe you saw them, i know i did not see them. >> in my world, a technology trend is not united states pick these are fundamental shifts in human behavior, all data-driven. you know, and the reason that i

think we keep missing things is because america has become a nation of them were not thinkine about the future and i should mention that i am politically independent so, but our current administration is obviously, junior, backwards thinking and antagonistic towards technology and science. .. ie far behind china in key areas and that is a problem we are behind russia and some areas of technological development and we have three more years of not getting ourselves caught up which is a critical period. so at that period of transition the beginning of the end of this is the beginning of the end of computational technologies so it's a standard

types of computers we are all used to. while we are busy looking backwards and hiding yesterday's and scrabbling over yesterday's news everyone else is moving forward. not only are they moving forward key areas of technology for new alliances being built. the fact that china could emerge as the global leader is -- you know, in environmental e technologies is i think fascinating. >> that they could stand to progress on that from some of the skies i've seen. >> sure. >> you mentioned and let's get to that. it is out there yesterday access, not axis but the trump administration is apparently thinking of nationalizing the networks that are now starting to get built out by the wireless carriers because of reasons it is not quite clear but a matter of national security and unclear

how far along this got whether it was the last intern to get access to the whiteboard for the south. [laughter] >> all of those things. >> did you see any of those? >> 5g, yes, that's what we've been working with lots of groups for a a while. here is what i find problematic. it's yet another leaked thing. the last thing we need at this point is another leasing with very little with actual data got released and that leads to wild speculation and people not mapping scenarios in any way but instead of reacting and we can all react because we all have opinions reacting to what was in that memo. here is the reality. regardless of the policy -- the

whole infrastructure got built by commercial entities and entity should have years ago and it was anybody we all did should have seen that broadband was coming in digital video was coming and the business model wasn't going to work. they built the network so don't

they still have some say in monetizing and you could also argue that the transition to 5d has been slow and has been under all of these conversations now and weren't doing anything good. everyone has heated emotions and it's better to have these conversations ten years ago before we had to make decisions under duress so who knows what this document is and -- and what gets leaked and weak. >> safe bet. so, artificial intelligence is this special sauce you can in product to make it sound more attractive. >> i start artificially intelligent toothbrush. >> i might have a yes, two years ago. >> probably, sure, why not. what of the policy indications you're not thinking about in terms of you know to years ago

if you look at social networks you have thought well, should make sure that people can't take over other people's accounts and there wasn't so much discussion people will create fake accounts to confuse real people and thena we thought well should resolve harassment but how about changing people's minds not by w meaning to them. >> sure. a lot to unpack. here's what i say about ai. ai is not a singular thing. it is a different way of competing and one of the challenges that we have in general is that the bulk of the research and work in ai is being handled by a nine copies. not by research institutions. they can a partnership with academic researchers but all the advancement is essentially in the united states being driven by corporate interests and i'm a capitalist and should be able to make money however at some point due to commercial interest but up against our national interest

and in the interest of humanity those companies and united are microsoft, facebook, ibm, google, and i'm skipping one -- >> apple. >> -ish and so the other big companies and ibm if i didn't say it. the other three are arguably the most well-capitalized and certainly those are in china and those are and what is interesting here is chinese government has honestly made big commissions about the next 20 years and how it plans to be a global leader in ai but what is important to note because they've made industrial policy work in china doesn't always follow through in a way that measures up to the proclamations what is different this time is that china is not going it

alone. there are researchers based in the united states and they are pouring money into us funds but unlike traditional bc or hedging they are not just expecting a return but pleading ip. there is a lot of work being done here that is being done back to the chinese government and there is no way for me to build a scenario out of 20 years at the moment that has an optimistic framing. china, you know, probably heard that data is the next oil and reason for that is because our data that is mined and refined and productized it makes the system work and if that is the case and i should have mentioned the starting amazon. that should've been the first out of my mouth. that's the case in the united states jeff bezos is our new john rockefeller, right? but not nearly as powerful as what we're seeing, china.

the united states lacks in a lot of ways -- ai is this next era of computing from which there are many spokes which includes things like biotechnologies and those two things go together and automation and our transportation is all these different areas and we are we don't have a national biology policy if you think of biology as the most important forms of the 21st century we don't have a national biology platform strategy. we don't have a national ai strategy that i know of and that includes i can't talk about it but that i know of i'm not seeing a lot of the same enthusiasm. instead what i'm seeing is avoiding the subject and we are waiting and foreign money into yesterday's technology. i think is infuriating because

it doesn't have to be that way and i have a seven -year-old boy don't want to wake up 30 years from now and realize that she's no longer living in a global superpower. >> same. >> right? we could do something right now but he can't keep building counter narrative strategy for botanists that everyone else and that such it's great that we are trying to catch up at this point but i don't want america can't be the ketchup country going forward. i would hope you would feel the same. >> so, the other trend around ai are seen is that here the approach is as well companies and will see what happens to the european union has an actual explanation at some that affects you and you're supposed to say where did this come from. >> they have not thought that through either to be fair.

>> it would not be the first time the eu stepped over a little bit. >> no it wouldn't but the problem is one of the things we will all have to be a doing going forward is to write policy and way that makes sense given the technology that that policy and regulation is intended to govern because at the moment technology is advancing far faster than anyone's ability to write policy for it or to legislated and given that the scenario one would have to wonder how that will get enforced and if you're worried about fake news now but if we have a you're entering an era of a splintered internet where depending on where you are in the world there are completely the internet absolutely has geopolitical borders and task borders and as of may, some incredibly stringent regulatory borders in what passes for content that is legal in germany

may not also be legal in italy and may be different in canada versus mexico and how are you possibly going to enforce that? you know, again, i think we have to think very critically and carefully about how we are creating policy going forward given that the people creating aretechnologies that you trying to write policy for, you know, you don't want to stifle that innovation and development but on the other hand you can't regulate it three years after the fact that you have to anticipate which is why again this is dangerous that we don't have an oca or an equivalent. people could argue there are different pockets around dc that serve some of that same function we do not have hundreds upon hundreds of trained scientists

and technologists and mathematicians and actual futurists who are nonpartisan job it is to educate the people who are writing policy and voting. we don't have that anymore. >> refresh the memories of some of the younger folks here. i know it was shut down in -- >> ninety-six by newt gingrich. >> , 22 say for track. >> so much that was a seat on an aircraft carrier. >> it was a seat on air force one and those aren't cheap.ut >> but the sick thing is the ota in the united states became the template for lots of other countries around the world and it still exists elsewhere. we don't have the equivalent of that now which is why we keep having these partisan conversations about technology. we also should probably have the cdc for digital public health so we do have something like that called the us cert and i'm -- my dad isn't. my dad is a very, very smart person and he is house for w

technology and he applies no firmware updates so now someone will ask my dad if they're watching c-span spirit not the most human readable thing ever. >> it's not. it's not but if we start if we reframe the conversation of the technology that we use and we assume that the digital order is important than isn't it time that we have something like a cdc. it is to in a very effective way in a measured way educate the everyday person about the benefits and the dangers ofra using digital tools in its structure and online media and you know -- but in a way that is relatable. >> in the last election cyber security was -- what are the signs you be looking for that we should be looking for to see that we are getting more

intelligent and we cannot have a debate on cyber security that features the 400-pound hacker on the bed or maybe if the bed was 400 pounds trumps taxes whenever clear on that point. >> here is how out of touch folks are. you assume hackers are still people. they are not. on the more the inside of the space people have now written programs to do this automatically so the 400-pound slovenly hacker that you are picturing as the cause of election problems but that's not what we're talking about. >> it's a 4-pound laptop. >> sure in smaller than that. when you think of packing like you're probably still thinking about computers. we are within our lifetime probably sometime in the next 15 years will have new types of technology that we ingest that we wear for a variety of different informational and medical purposes, right?

i don't think that anyone has a clue as to what is coming. i don't think the people in washington dc i thought this through and there are very smart people here whose voices would be great to hear in a way that is easier for everyone to understand but i just don't think i don't think we are prepared. my job is not to constantly look for doom and gloom and you know however, given what i know to be true today and the data i have available i'm having a hard time i'm having a hard time. >> and i guess that were just going further down this path and there is hope for reduction. >> i don't think that we are all living in westworld and that we are preprogrammed box carried out somebody's code.

we do have the ability to change and we have the ability to write the pictures that we want but we have to decide we want something different and we have to push up our sleeves and do the difficult jobs of making sure that all the pieces so that we can create the future we want. if you don't want to live in a world of splintered internet right? returns for you are you may or may not have access to information which will make thei containment of fake news that much more difficult than we can do something about it now. i watched the -- twitter made big promises and facebook has made big promises that they will do something to combat it in facebook sent out and did you get the survey? >> i did not and i feel disrespected. >> i do not either.

>> did anyone get the survey? >> this is how facebook will connect that problem. there's a two question survey, there's a two question survey that was basically like do you trust any of the sources and i mean, that wasas basically it. peter has promised to combat these problems and take new problems on saturday i was in my office working with international holocaust and said on the left rail for all the trending topics and one of them was islam and i clicked on it to see what was going on in the very top of the story was from russia today. okay. you know, and it was a totally made upwo story and i'm not goig to repeat it but this doesn't bear my repeating. it was made up story. and i have a verified account. my question is this is not magical algorithmic mathematical

pixie dust that no one can grab out of the air and is very hard to fix. it's not that hard to fix we just chosen not to. there's a business case for not fixing the problem and we keep clicking because you want to see the crazy thing that will happen next so were part of the problem too. we all have to decide that we want a different future and then we have to do something about it and doing something about it isn't just you know, having occasional meetings where policy moves at the speed of washington dc. that's not a good thing smack on the other hand it seems that there is also the spreading strain of resistant humans and that is the hardest problem of all. >> that's the biggest virus, right? but that is perpetuated and the problem is our current internet plays well to our systems and we are constantly chasing dopamine hit at this point. on the one hand it's our

biology, not our fault, and on the other hand there are other times when we have medical ailments and illnesses and we figured out a way to get around it and i feel like you have the capacity to get around this is. the problem is we are all enjoying this too much. we like to smack talk all of these -- everyone has an opinion on the neutrality why? why does burger king? >> their ad didn't even capture it but that is the point. it doesn't matter if it's big news or actual news or actual information everyone wants to be a part and in the digital realm our attention is currency and it's harder and harder to grab onto that currency and to earn the currency so we have to decide if we want a different

future for ourselves and that's our mandate. >> your book is all about how to be a better futurist and to or start becoming one and let's talk questions people should be asking when they see some crazier part of here is the security breach and here's the paper study that says such and such as possible on facebook and here's this other thing in the closet that you cannot worry about. >> i referenced my a year ago and it's in the book but it's also publicly available and my feeling is that kind of work i do is something that anyone can do but again, you have to make a decision that you want to choose a different path going forward. on the digital literacy front there are lots of amazing organizations that are working on this and alex sitting in front of me is doing some of this and there's a lot of different ways and tools to he

help. in terms of thinking about the future it has to be a deliberate process and it's not reading national and crunch and checking the wind and there's more to it than that but it's something that everyone should be fully engaged in and i think the last piece of advice is i'd like for us all to slow down a little bit. i know that we are living in a fast-paced society but some of the technology that we are confronting is amazing. several years from now we will be living in a magical world but at some point somebody will want to legislate against it and someone will break the law and away we haven't thought of before and i have yet to hear anyone have conversation around artificial intelligence and whether or not some of our constitutional guarantees apply to code and once that code is

essentially enslaved to us and we have a lot of really difficult questions on theno horizon and it's best not to answer those questions under duress so you know, everyone to take a moment and learn a bit more and engage a little more and hopefully will all be better off. >> perfect timing since nowhe there's a coffee break. >> go caffeinated or get a drink somewhere. [laughter] great. thank you. [applause] [background noises]