>> hello, everybody better:. welcome. i'm the executive director here. how many you are here for the first time cracks welcome. it's wonderful to have you and welcome back to everyone who has been here before. so cool.

we think it's a very special place. with our highbred center for culture and ideas in the synagogue every imagines the way a community can be useful in personal in our everyday lives and we are pleased to have mark penn here. he's been a singular force in polling, marketing, advertising and political strategies for over 40 years and advised people you have probably never heard of like bill and hillary clinton, bill gates and tony blair and worked with some of the most powerful brands in business including forbes, microsoft and mcdonald's took he changed the way we thought about swing voters by zeroing in on the soccer mom which is a term he coined and brought trends to light like the new york rise of the internet of internet dating. how many of us-- not me, swipe left, swipe right.

tonight we will hear about his newest book trend for which bills on a powerful premise that the behavior of one small group can insert the disproportionate influence over the entire us. it prepares us for things for what's coming next and some of the things we might be ready for and some we may not be. the rise of intelligent tv. yes, please. nerds with money, great. the rise of open marriage, i'm not ready. after mark's presentation he will open up the room for questions and when he does please lineup to use the microphone in the center of the room and following the conversation there will be a book signing and at that time you will line up against the back wall. before i woke a mark to the stage it would like to thank him and his incredible powerhouse of a wife, nancy jacobson, who are

dedicated supporters and without whom we would not be able to do the wonderful things we do every day, so thank you both. please join me in giving that mark a warm welcome. [applause]. >> so, first of all, thank you very much for coming out tonight i went to think nancy and the book is dedicated to nancy and my poor children-- four children meredith is also here. i appreciate you coming out and i will give you kind of a round up of microtrends estate case. so, i have the theory of the

case of microtrends, which is that if you kind of think about the things that have been happening, just 800,000 people, daca recipients have created incredibly big political group. the last election was decided by about 80000 voters in critical states and so a lot of the point of book that these things shugart is too small or insignificant has turned out to be pivotal in deciding how things come out in society particularly in today's society where even small groups can yield incredible outside influence and then you kind of, i think, if you read the book i tell people the most interesting thing about it is to find

yourself in it and if you find yourself that gives a lot of credibility to the chapter about other people because a lot of would you say the problem today is that people know about themselves, but they don't necessarily understand all of the other lifestyles that people are living and i think the book tries to cover in a counterintuitive way some of those. before you get to the microtrends and there are 50 and i will call-- cover 10 or 15 in the talk today. there are certain things that are happening in the larger society that result in the microtrends. the first is the drive for personalization and individual choice because after all if everyone were after the same and were the same close you wouldn't have microtrends that all. it's about the differentiation of people, their views, their lifestyles.

now, in the business i go back and say, well, it you remember henry ford and he really created the ford economy. he created the assembly line, the ability to mass produce product and he had a any color you want as long as it's black. based on a theory, today we would all have the same close, that's just how the economy turned out. 10 years ago i wrote about the starbucks economy. about starbucks economy is 155 different varieties of a commodity as simple and as black as coffee. and when you go into starbucks, at starbucks they did all the work. you just told them what you wanted. they gave you this choice. in other things, if you think about it the ipod, which is out of circulation but the

soundtrack for a while you did the work. the ipod was any color you wanted as long as it was white when it first came out. its unique feature was that the phones were personalized the, so if the starbucks economy. today we have uber economy. uber picture from anyplace intentionally pushing what. that means you're in a world not of 155 choices, but the world of infinite choices and that pretty much is standard micro- targeting of one individuality, personalization and that's a critical factor, i think, in generating the change we see. there was an unexpected problem with all of these choices. of the problem was more choices actually led to less choice. how is that? would oh, i mean cracks iced try

to illustrate this. assume america was a restaurant and just a chicken or fish, kosher of course. it could just choose chicken or fish, not a tremendous amount of passion. a lot of people unhappy. so, let's add other things to the menu. let's add steak and sushi. sushi eaters love it every day and just have sushi in the steak eaters everyday just have steak. now think of that in news. everyday people watch msnbc. everyday people like fox. more choices resulted people dividing themselves out in the things they like and then they stop experimenting. when people go into their starbucks today, they say give me the regular.

so, choice became so good if found choices people like and its car people up. that explains a lot of what we see now. now, another thing that i emphasize in the book is related to the cover which is sort of an impossible version of what i really say is the newtonian law of trends, which is that for every trend there is a countertrend. for every, you know, technology loving group there is a luddite group. for every-- every political movement. newton had to be opposite at equal. the don't necessarily have to be equal. counter trends are typically bigger than you think. i didn't realize 2 million flip phones were sold in america last

year. in fact, production of flip phones are going up because people see smart phones and say i don't want to live that fast and that's the way's are cited survives. now, let's look at big trends and counter trends that really delves into a lot of the stuff you see. we are in the age of information and we are also in age of misinformation at the very same time. millennia. many a lot of the cultural scenes. nonagenarian's and older folks have never been more powerful. smartphones and flip phone search, silicon valley versus the old economy. what do you think is going on when the president says i want tariffs and by the way amazon is cheating the post office?

that is the conflicts between that silicon valley and what benefits it and the old economy and those voter from indiana to pennsylvania who voted quite strongly in this election what benefits them and you see it actually taking place before your eyes and understand that what you see in the reason there is so much combat is the power is going back-and-forth among these trends and counter trends. egghead policy versuscommon sense politics. egghead policies is international trade, quite difficult to understand unless you have a theory of giving more to your people overseas results in more jobs. those are egghead theories. if i am better to iran they will more integrated into the world economy and integrate into the more a car me will change.

those are primarily theoretical versus commonsense policy. so, you have seen a reestablishment here of, hey, those egghead theories were great, but how about more direct , and a sense and something i cover extensively in the book is people have never ever been more educated than they are today more than two thirds of college and the problem-- one of the biggest problems is that the elites, the most educated among us have in fact become the most susceptible to talking points. i hired a phenomenon when i was working for hillary. someone would come up to me and say if hillary were just more likable i would vote for her, phd. then someone would compensate you know, if hillary's health care plan emphasized cost opera coverage i would be more interested in voting for her,

middle-class. now, you would think it would be reverse that the person who is coming to you about the intricate details of the health care plan would be the phd in the person who just wanted her to tell better jokes was an-- not even a middle-class voter. it was not that way and in fact what has happened is that elise had become so removed from these problems that they have no idea what they pay for healthcare, what their employer pays, with the daily problems really are and the middle-class voters are far more educated with greater access to information have a much greater connection to policy and so there has been kind of a flip around of our data kraut-- democratic model and one of my jobs that way 500 people dedicated to pushing talking points out to elites who are the most susceptible-- susceptible to talking points.

the smarter you are the more susceptible you are to just taking someone else's opinion and that's why understanding the battle between the trends and countertrend, it's important to understand a society that seems beyond understanding. so, although the book is not an election book is more about lifestyle. and didn't think i could get away without kind of giving comments on the last election and what i thought was pivotal in that. i don't think it was about hundred thousand dollars spent on facebook. i do think it was about these old economy voters right now interestingly when i left working for president clinton, manufacturing jobs had stabilized at about 20 million and i thought they would stabilize for some time because we had growth of about 24 million jobs and we kept manufacturing jobs about the same.

it turns out over the next two presidencies half of those manufacturing jobs were lost. that was the enormous transformation in many states that went completely ignored by the political system and with a powerful political force was then mobilized. you know, we think everything is dominated by young people. if there are more older people in our society today than ever before. when john f. kennedy was elected , younger people 18 to my 29 were roughly twice as big a population group is those over 65. today, it's about equal and climbing on the older side. what you saw is older voters who are here reasserting themselves and saying wasn't ready for open marriage, i'm not ready for a lot of the things that make him in the millennial's.

and i think they took power back society divided themselves into more niches than ever before. we are about the same number of liberals and conservatives-- actually more conservatives in this country than liberals, but more very liberal, more very conservative. people have become more intense as a consumer steak and sushi and i think we have seen essentially this polarization then drive our politics to be much more combative, but i do think the swing in the old economy voters, democrats, republicans are the critical factor and of course impressionable elites, none believe that donald trump could win. of the "new york times" said it was 93% chance hillary was going to win and therefore they accepted the talking points. they didn't elites see changes occurring to make a possible and

so they were stunned in shock ever since. so, not only have there been a dynamic and politics, but there are couple of critical things that have changed particularly since the last micro trend that i think is also concerning. number one, what i call footloose and fancy free millennial's now typically will go to college, have years of work and have pushed back five years marriage, family and children. that means that a lot of people will now spend 10 to make 15 years in more urban areas going to six and i which is uniquely i think caters to exactly that phenomenon because when people came out of high school and married her high school sweetheart the number of years they had on their own were almost none. now people have a lot of years on their own. time for roommates, time for-- well, it's a great thing for

post mates. used it to be chinese food, but i think that's changed its. dating, number relationships people have and the implication of the sums people spending more time in urban areas together in this lifestyle i think is just beginning to understand unfortunately, in the end one of the things we observe in the book is that the more money people get and the more time people get the first thing they tend to get rid of is kids. you would've thought it was the opposite. almost every society there is tremendous population growth. we are in danger of almost going negative and population growth in the next 10 years. seniors are living longer. they are richer than ever before because of policies put in place 50 to 100 years ago and they are on the one hand more conservative and having more fun

keep that and we will-- rural versus cities, the cities have had a real revival while we were role areas have had population drain. during that they kept a lot of their political power because a lot of the political power is divided up by stating an area in the electoral college emphasizes that. about question will be what we do with all this land that people no longer live in. we always thought again as a kid we were told basically there would be no land left. where will anyone go if anything we have been throwing more-- [inaudible] so, changes in technology yet given mind. data is the new oil, the new gold, the most valuable thing because for every marketer they need data. i'm going to talk a couple minutes ai bots are coming.

this is the fact that artificial intelligence is creating things to have a relationship with. it's increasingly going to be a factor in the way you interact with technology and that will add a new dimension. unfairly negative on driverless cars. i don't think they will be a reality for quite some time. i think the car companies are beginning to find that out and i will also come back to that. big data obviously is here. i'm lucky if i have a single picture of my great-grandmother. today, every person has a dataset that begins at birth and whether they were breast-fed or used pampers or took formula and goes all the way up with an amazing amount of data. i was always amazed and one of the first customers of microsoft for the cloud was an elevator

company that had 50000 elevators, so they then took information of every elevator and how may people went in and which florida went to and it gets recorded. no idea as you go through daily life now how much of what you do is recorded so they could predict when an elevator would break down. where they could back if they had a camera and look who was in the elevator. you have no idea how much data information is out there and how much personal information is being created. that's why this whole thing over facebook because i think bringing in-- bringing back a debate of personal data when i was at microsoft iran to campaign-- i ran a campaign where i said hey you know your mailing text is scan and read and all this information you think is private is analyzed for a human to the doctor might a medicine, so you have no idea

what information the tech companies are gathering. i don't think it's a bad thing necessarily they gather it. i think it's a bad thing you didn't know they gather it. that you couldn't choose privacy because in fact they just slid past you and it's interesting as an exercise facebook and google if you want be horrified have revealed how you can download the information they have about you and it's amazing and even i was like-- so, take all those things as backdrops as kind of big things going on and let's talk a little bit about some of the microtrends. there are 50 in the book i will cover a few of them are quite a my favorites is bachelors. it turns out that if you are age 65 and a single, which i'm not, it turns out there are 100

single women for every 62 men. this actually ratio has been closing a bit, but everyone-- you know they didn't have internet dating in the past and they are a little richer and so sexually transmitted diseases were not a problem before in these communities. let's just say that, in fact, seniors now are living a whole new dating life and guys that couldn't really make it in high school if they make it to 65 and they are single they are having the time of their life. [laughter] i would say the book starts out with relationships because i want people to kind of get interested in the book. this one, i love this one so i will ping-pong a little bit from the older generation. single with pets. typically, the old pets model

was that you had a couple of kids. they reached five, six, seven, eight. they demanded a pet. you reluctantly gave in and the pet joined the family. microtrends one i cover how the kids went off to college parents felt they were empty-nesters and so they then got these pence and treat them like children and gave them incredible amount of disposable income. now, because people hang around for 10 or 15 years before they get married or have a family they say hey, it's a long time until the first kid. publication a dog now and so like 70% of millennial's have some kind of pets. if you look at i think the pet industry is like the-- it's like $70 billion with incredible growth. the only problem with this because this pooch also cuts incredible amounts of love because there are no children

and also cuts-- then because they might get a dog walker and somewhat guilty feeling parents get a gml food and so pet hotels, pet spas, all of that stuff. only problem is later on if the single pet gets married and has a child that dog is in for an incredible shock when they are never to and of course we will need more pet psychologists. so, managing areas-- nonagenarian's call of those people over 90 or pretty much a rarity and i actually-- i didn't realize until 96 and they have quadrupled from 700,000 over 92

meant to a half-million and we are headed i think in the next 20 or 30 years to 8 million so you will have a tremendous explosion of people living over 90 and if you get to 65 you have about a 30% chance of being nonagenarian meaning one of the most explosive job categories is home health aide. we have a shortage of them and it's also actually an interesting area for robotics. these are my footloose and fancy free-- this is kind of the point i was making that really if you think about this once marriage age got pushed back all of these years and then it turns out you spend 10 or 15 years on your own , you know, sharing is not your first instinct. so, you do get married there is

actually a chapter on independent marriage which is to say more separate bedrooms being built than ever before. i'm married, no problem, but i like the light off. i like the light on. so, a lot of these habits start to transfer into that and that's the way couples resolve. there's going to be, i think, many repercussions and i think it's critical to revitalizing the urban area and urban housing now, it's been bad for religion because a lot of people don't get as religious until they have their first child and that becomes a transformative experience and so one thing that six and i does so well for people in this age range is to keep them interested. pilot nationally you look at younger people during this period and you see religion falling off, so on the other end

of the spectrum is cancer survivors. each of these stars and actresses is a cancer survivor. there weren't a lot of cancer survivors before because part of what happens also is that other diseases like heart disease were pulled back so people there to live longer and then there's more cancer. so, there's a group in terms of the numbers, i think, we have about 13 million cancer survivors and as a class and i would actually in the book put myself in this class, it's an incredible experience if you get that diagnosis. tremendous amount of tension. then if it is successful, nothing. nothing is good, but there's like no support groups people don't even harass me for contributions. they just lose track of you

because the system was never set up for survivors and so-- and they were never much of a class of people, but when you look at this they become a larger more active class and they have been affected in many ways in terms of the way they look at life. a lot of microtrends just same like these are people who soccer moms that could be recognized as a group. it could be crystallized as a group, brought together for some reason our public good. kids on meds. so, there has been this incredible spiking of the adhd diagnosis. we are talking about like a tripling. if you look at it, it somewhere with the age category between 10, 11 of 15% of children and

teenagers below think 3% of two or three -year-olds are diagnosed in 80% typically will be medicated for the disease. i would say my daughter who is a psychiatrist has a said you got to understand-- and by the way it's almost all boys. two to one boys. interestingly it was very little in the minority community and tell i think the obamacare expansion made these drugs in this healthcare more available to broader classes. you have seen an increase in minority families whose kids also have these drugs. the question is is it a good thing or a bad thing. the case for a good thing and the reason why they give it is because it's an credit-- it's difficult to get through school today. it's much more demanding,

requires more attention, patients, focus. you look at this and say this is helping millions of kids not only make life easier for their parents, but also to get through school. the bad thing would be well we don't really know the long-term effects of having kids on medication from age two or five or 17 and do they expect to have that medication to be lifelong? will they need it, will sum the symptoms fade away? we don't know, but part of microtrends is here is a rising phenomenon, no one is focusing and everyone is so busy and opioid crisis they aren't to looking at explosion of kids on meds. typically don't look a problem if he goes to bigger of control and here's the time we can look at this insight is this right? is this good? bots with benefits. the bot industries information.

about first bought i think people interacted with was really the atm machine. i am old enough that i did polling for banks for atm machines. i did polling for banks and people were incredibly frightened. you have no idea. now, they don't go talk to a teller. it's ridiculous today you have to be careful because with things like alexa. alexa is programmed to respond to your questions and is a much more sophisticated bot. in the book i talk about the sex bot industry and how that's likely to take off, but for now i will stick to alexa. so, is alexa a he or she. does anyone want to answer that? alexa is on it. it's a fundamental ethical

principle that a bunch of code is never called a he or she and if you read through the literature of the company very carefully they danced around this point. now, if you ask alexa if it's that he or a she, alexa says i'm in female character. now, that's a slimy answer because it avoided the question. alexa did not say i'm on it. today she left that part out. i made the mistake and called her a sheet, but that's the concept. the concept is to make you feel that you are having a relationship. when, in fact, are you talking to a sales person sitting in the middle of your living room trying to sell you the next amazon shipment or you talking to a friend trying to help you with the weather? you don't know. i worked in tech, so i know. in the book i tell you, but what

happens is overtime with technology typically is that they start out with your friend helping you in the drive for monetization transforms it into essentially selling you something. if you look today's hand the google page more and more advertisement unless organic search. even if you use one of the mapping programs is now trying to cellulite uber in the middle of it because someone at headquarters said let's get more money. let's not stop giving them information for free and that's the course of things in the problem is you don't know, so you don't know what these bots will be like. you don't know who they are working for. you don't know how they are programmed. if you have a driverless car it would be good for you to know the driverless car is facing a choice between killing you and killing a pedestrian which will it choose. at least you should know. so, i do warn about that.

uptown stoners. uptown stoners is about the emerging marijuana market, got a 7 billion-dollar market. 20% now because california colorado's work racial marijuana. liquor industry in contrast is about 200 billion in the size. i was reading an article that the canadian cannabis stocks are fairly high. what i suggest is like if you think of products big market would be an upscale marijuana. it will be in spas, cruises restaurants, clubs. the rest of the market will be the monetized and advice people that this is something you should keep track of if you are so inclined so, korean beauty. very good example of how by following trends the koreans and

actually the koreans have ordered more of these books than any other country. small country, but they follow trends. in following trends they have been successful and this k beauty industry is about 13 billion-dollar industry. they heavily export the beauty products. they have created this concept of skin that blew away the french in the previous paradigm of cosmetics. so, this is just an incredible example about how microtrends can be carved out of nothing with really smart enterprising business people. pro protein nurse, you remember when the government told you you had to go have, hydrates and everyone got that. than the government said no, we were wrong and they made the protein bigger, but basically

people today believe protein is it. so, then we went to examine what protein was the big winner now that protein surge. okay, chicken. chicken is the enormous winner because in fact chicken consumption went from 20 pounds a person in the us to 90 pounds if person a year. i immediately went out and bought chicken stock. i think that china would be an incredible growth market, but people decided chicken tastes good enough, in the right cost zone. doesn't have as many health problems. the trend with beef and pork were collapsing them and they kind of stabilized, but salmon went up. americans don't eat a lot of fish i thought sushi would be big and that i realize you can only serve sushi and restaurants , so that was a very washington dc view. so, my father was in the chick

in the business. i wish he had lived to see this. old economy voters as i said to you before i think they played a pivotal role. i think that the last three or four presidencies-- look, they were right in the macroeconomic sense to pursue these policies from an egghead point of view, but they really underestimated the economic damage to some of the factors, and in politics and democracy it counts. it's not just about dollars. hillary said recently she got the votes from the gdp area, well, that's the whole point. that's the whole point. there were lots of people in sub gdp area that said policy has raked us under the cold and i think we did not adequately understand that and i think that

has now been made clear. couch potato voters. it turns out that there are about 90 million people who are eligible to vote who don't votes , so i call them the couch potato voters. go through the numbers and of the problem with this is that that's potato is so large that when you are running campaigns and campaigns that i ran we would go for swing voters and you go for swing voters you are pitching to the other side and i pitch into the other side you are bringing people together. people said, it's really hard work to get someone to cross from one side to the other, but i could really by being more inflammatory my slice of the potato to the poll. it's a defect in our system that this potato is as large as it is because if we had more universal voting people would go back to

getting swing voters and turnout would not be the decisive factor. when turnout is the decisive factor division is the way people when elections and that means the day after the election incident unity you have before the election that is just a problem. i think this is the final one of the trends i will tell you about of those of us who-- you don't have to be a nano engineering, but if you are in your 50s or 60s and you remember the hazel were a single housekeeper took care of everything. powerpoint today is theirs than an explosion where people say why are semi- people employed when we have so much technology. it turned out that rather than buying more things i'm a rather than car what people wanted were more services. yoga, medication, spas, dog walking, nails, therapy, pet

therapy and a so on. 40% of our country is in the service industry in today's 56. we are now in the pampering economy, what people do with their extra money. before they would spend it on having more kids and now they spend it on themselves. they spend it on themselves more with services than products than ever before so your life now doesn't have a single hazel, but can have five or 10 people who know intimate details of you who helped kind of get you across the finish line. so, the book goes through 50 trends like this and i eventually come down to hate, what are the benefits, what are the changes and again probably a little more time going through this. i do think some of the benefits,

look, we have had incredible trends and personalization that has had incredible benefits. technology is richly universal and you and the very same smart phone that bill gates has. you have many of the things that were available to only a few people, but on the other hand bit tech has become super powerful. ai can be used for commercial purposes. big data does breach people's privacy. kids and family are victims of prosperity and so my point coming out of this book is we have got these wonders, but we really had to start working on the other side. if we don't we will find ourselves in increasing problems and so i go through in the book changing the antitrust laws, starting at the benefits of the economy, having a new set of ethics, giving people more

control over their personal data , but i try to say look not just that we had these problems. i give what i say is pretty good to set up remedies for those problems although he down to getting rid of the caucuses that give activists too much power. intimately i would say everyone, i hope, who reads the book will find themselves and also understand a few things that data is king in the sense that if you are in business you have to understand your customers and in deep and meaningful ways because if you don't your competitor will. your competitor then we'll go more effective and marketing and you will be out of business and that is just the cold reality. i think his services as much as product, remember that forever marketplace. there is a counter marketplace. there will be a corollary for

every trend there's another trend and they hope everyone here will find the kind of microtrends whether it's their personal life or religious life that can have meaning and really understand society and give them some direction and explanation. with that, thank you very much. [applause]. which take about 10 minutes of questions. it's always tough to get the first question. >> so, when i first saw the topic i thought i would ask you about teacher strikes and what that tells you about any changing of the fundamental activists trend, but then i saw your book this chart that showed that something like say people lie to pollsters in person they

give more meaningful information when they are online. what does that say about data integrity and understanding trends because of the data integrity issue? >> well, let me first say that the teacher strike we have a chapter about how don't go into language teaching of the moment. not sure there will be language teaching when we get universal translators, but i am very much taken by finding one of the poles i do, which said that 40% of people are afraid to tell their political views to their family and 60% are afraid to do it work. so, we do believe and i kind of conclude that there are 10 or 15 million people who are probably more conservative in polls and probably some liberals

and conservative areas that it would be the countertrend to that and it is a problem. i do think overall there's about 5% difference between online polls and polls done with allied interviewer and i think that is the affect of people feeling more comfortable and more anonymous online today, but always remember the secret ballots is very important. you know, poles i believe in polls. polls are indicative. there are differences and it wouldn't govern by polls. i would use them as an aid, but not definitively. the questions? other questions? >> what to do you see in the cryptocurrency trend? >> a disaster. >> regulation?

>> you know, it's your classic impressionable, i mean, i'm with the crowd that says there is no value. i mean, i think that people think that there is a methodology and block chain that could be used to complete confidential transactions and verify transactions. that is different from cryptocurrency marketplace that is now down. it's come down 6000 or so. there is no government behind it. you know, barely believe in currency that were backed by government. why would people believe in currency that is backed by no one? this whole phenomenon to me is so classic impressionable to me. i see nothing but doom and gloom minute. i could be wrong. [laughter]

that's where i said i would tell you that i do think driverless cars will take another 20 or 30 years. they are kidding themselves when they think computers are good enough and ai is good enough to go 100,000 miles without a fender bender in a couple million miles. i think they are discovering that relatively quickly. not that they will never come true, but i think they are overreaching, overexcited about that and over invested in that technology. last question, if you're not a big question group-- sure. >> do you think there's a correlation between the increase in adhd medications and if that correlates anyway in the opioid addiction we are seeing now? >> well, it would correlate in

the sense that they both, i think, came up at the same time, but i don't know that i find a causal relationship like i don't think it's because parents who were taking opioids have been prescribed to kids. i do think that this was a phenomenon, you know, first it was more upper-class and now it's spread more universally. i tend to think it correlates more with the greater availability of perceptions. the greater faith in doctors in the medicine themselves and i think more and more parents wanting their kids to succeed in school work i don't think they are connected because i don't think there's a causal relationship. i guess the question you would have is well in some way or drug

companies cynically behind this. [inaudible] [inaudible] >> well, that's what i'm hinting i think this has developed now in the past 10 or 15 years, so i don't think those kids are opioid kids. i think the question is whether or not these kids will become opioid kids and that's why i say we better double check this and make sure that doesn't happen because now you are talking, not about small number of kids taking medication. you are tagamet 10 or 15 million kids.

>> you just spoke about healthcare, but i have a question in a different aspect. we have seen mergers even since the first of the year. i see in etna, now walmart, atlanta, scripts, the pharmacy benefit managers, what is this leading to? we are breaking down the silos in that industry where people could perhaps be not insured, but members of a healthcare conglomerate that can offer all of these things and maybe they can compete. may be each one will be like a mini national health service like the uk and that might be good or bad. i guess my question is what do you think this is leading to and will we have to worry about mandates in the affordable car-- affordable care act anymore in the future this trend continues? >> i think it's an unexpected development that the resurgence

of the insurance companies. i think that the conventional wisdom was that insurance companies would be gone by now. and that they really didn't serve that much of a purpose in the marketplace and that either was wrong or government policy decided not to tango, so i think what you see is kind of that insurance companies seem to have a more lasting a presence in the marketplace and you will continue to see that. i think some of these mergers in the pharmaceutical and healthcare insurance and then that individual service, they are trying to occur which is to say on all three levels of the industry right now and again, where are you now? well, you're entering a period where there will continue to be sustained growth and healthcare because the sustained growth in

older people and so that will result in continue growth and opportunity. i think second, you think about big data and how that's revolutionized the country. cvs isn't the old cbs and even frankly they are not the amazon of the cbs. unsurprised if someone came along and did an incredible experience-- [inaudible] so, i think we see less change. the bottom line is less change than we thought on this. are not quite sure what the reduction mandate will do. you know, that was paid mostly by young people who didn't want insurance anyway. i think we will have to see where that goes in the next year or two in politics will swing back. so, stop the way it was going.

if it doesn't swing back the next election we are sure it will swing back the election after. >> in listening to the un i have not read the book, but in listening to you it seems like a lot of the microtrends are focused on the us and i'm curious how they relate to the rest of the world given the internet and if you take thomas friedman's the stuff and things happening. >> we do focus about 80% on the us. we do a double check on some of these internationally because most of them in the book we then say is the same thing happening, so take for example my first one , bachelors. it's happening pretty much everywhere with one exception.

does anyone want to guess the exception? china. china is the exception because they had a one child policy and so mysteriously that one child policy people only had guys, so they have a zillion guys in their 60s and their countertrend, so what we try to do is say look many places america is a trend leader and we look to see the same things happening because things typically spread and other things like k beauty and we look for certain ones around the world and kind of give credit to what's originating, so that's how we did it and i think it makes a more relatable book. >> thank you for next line to presentation and a look forward to reading the book.

i imagine there were probably more than 60 trends and i love most of it would give the policy change i was interested in how you chose that 50. was a because you are-- i guess i'm asking if some microtrends are more important than others. >> that's a good question and i think a lot of time with meredith and we have kind of refined the list i thought actually we would have to do 60 or 65 to get to 50, but i try to do something that sort of is counterintuitive because i don't want a bunch of trends you've already read about the environment and things like that, so part of that is the kind of to give you something a little interesting to think about. the truth of the matter is there could be 500 microtrends.

i think what i also want people to get from the book is this technique of taking a look at numbers first, understanding what's happening may be getting some understanding about why it's happening and most importantly think about what its implications could be and so if you go back to my original thing with soccer moms, soccer moms was about reorienting the democratic party targeted at that point manufacturing workers to women who are going to work leaving their kids during the day and what kind of new policy so in that case it really did not just the advertising, it was policies of tumors, and then would appeal to people in that situation. so, you could look at this book as i said just to see what's

going on. you could look it as an investor into an investor something like pro protein or would be important trend. will continue? can i find places where that will develop? or you could look at this as a business person. last time i had a son haters, which was a chapter about how parents don't tell their kids to go to the sun. they say go out and don't get son, so they retooled their line of clothing to be sun protective i also having worked with president clinton for six years very sensitive to a lot of policy implications at that time in the uk. they actually modeled some taxes after this. there's a big concern about the lack of children and families as a result of prosperity and education and kind of the different kind of work cycle that no one ever wants to talk

about. those requiring a lot of work unless we are willing to be-- have no population growth internally. i think that is one more important, i think somehow take on more significance. certainly, the dreamers. i think the old economy voters took on significance. some things turned out differently than i thought like internet marriage your car thought internet marriage would actually be something that would mix up society in the sense that someone up here could now socialize with someone just out there who they never would have met making more social diversity. it turns out just like my first model, people now use it to choose people like them. so, now they can find 50 people like them. have 50 dates according to people who are like them and so unexpectedly it's turning out to

be exactly the opposite. i think it's important to understand that. all 50 trends are my pets, so i won't choose over the other, but you are finding that importance in them and some are more important to society than not. with that, i think you. i'm happy to sign books and i hope you enjoy it. [applause]. >> here's a look at some authors

recently featured on book tv afterwards. our weekly author interview program including best-selling nonfiction books and guest interviewers. journalist jerome argued there's never to support the presidency of donald trump. facebook cofounder chris huge's shared his thoughts on a guaranteed income for the working class and journalist ron kessler reported on the inner workings of the trump administration. in the coming weeks on afterwards a former defense secretary donald rumsfeld will recount the presidency of gerald ford joined by former vice president dick cheney, both veterans of the ford administration. also coming up former national intelligence director chains-- james klapper will offer insight from the us intelligence community. television and radio host will retrace the transition to progressive politics and this weekend author barbara ehrenreich looks at the science behind how the body ages. >> it's hard to face death if that is what you are like.

you have-- i'm not a buddhist, but buddhist sounding thing i think, you have to lose yourself lose yourself in your work, your art, the movements that consume you and then death becomes incidental because consider, you know, i consider my long involvement in the women's movement in the movement for economic justice. when i'm gone you will go on. other people will do things i've been doing or do them better, so that's good. it's not scary. wonderful. one of my tasks in old age is in fact to reproduce myself to help younger writers, writers of color, people in poverty become journalists and get a start in

those are like children to me and my children of course are amazing, so i just think the-- that's one of the jobs of being old is passing the torch, taking what you know and have begun or accomplished or want done and passing it on to younger hands. >> afterwards ayers on book tv every saturday at 10:00 p.m. eastern and the sunday at 9:00 p.m. eastern and pacific time. all previous afterwards are available on her website, book tv.org. >> it was not a book i was necessarily planning to write or thought i would get to write. i watched these events happen like everyone else, like everyone else i thought they were-- like i thought you know

as a professional wrestler doing a gossip outlet over and illegally recorded sex tape and winning out that that was weird enough like there might be something more going on here didn't necessarily occur to me there. i remember i was in amsterdam when it happened and the news went up everywhere. everyone was very shocked by it. to me it immediately struck me as being almost-- it changes the narrative very much, so i wrote a few columns of hush about it. i'd written about it critically before. i was never a huge fan of the soccer. i think it pioneered a lot of the more toxic trends in today's media, so they reach out to me in the late summer, early fall of 2016. he just said i read your stuff and i would like to get a drink

sometime. so, we ended up connecting and independently i heard from him who had read a number of my other books, so we sort of had this other connection and then the fact that i was talking to both of them was number one, this very unusual set of circumstances and it than it allowed me to play one of them off the other and so nick was willing to talk to me about these things because peter was talking to me and peter kept talking to me because net was talking to me so both of them not only wanted their side to be heard, but i think both endlessly fascinated with the other which probably explain their conflict in a lot of ways. they are so similar and yet so different so part of i think what fuels the book probably would have been smarter for either of them to kill their involvement once it got started it was hard to stop.

>> l-uppercase-letter point in these conversations did you realize it was a book? guest: pretty early, pretty early. i just didn't know what broke it would be. there are so me different ways to do it. is it a larger book about media in general, is it a story driven factor driven analysis of what happens? i mean, their something like 25000 pages just of legal documents, i mean, you could write a whole second book like i end up cutting out in the book like pages and pages of just a surreal story of one dj doing that sex tape of another dj and there's some a subplot in this think so i kept it very wide-open handbag for a long time and my publisher we just referred to it as you them the, upcoming untitled media book. this idea-- eventually i

settled on this idea of there being a conspiracy , but the idea is singular deliberate conspiracy in many ways embodies all conspiracies and that was the lens i took. so, it was less is it a book, it was obviously a book i think from the beginning. it should be a novel. it should be a movie. so cinematic and insane it was just what angle was i going to take was the real question. >> you decided to use your own words at this a dis- interested observer. why did you do that? is a story people are passionate about on one side or the other and you very much tell it-- i wouldn't say the books point of view, but through the sides of the two different parties. >> what was so fascinating in the beginning to this was, i mean, this was a story that the best reporter

at the best media outlets have all taken a crack at it, gabriel sherman, nick bilton, every major outlet you had someone cover this story and so it was so surprising to me as i read it how much had not been reported. like how much was not there both in talking to nick and talking to peter and looking at the case files. there was just so much that had not been reported and i realize part of it was as soon as involvement was revealed there was such an intense bias there and such an intense narrative that got established that this was an evil billionaire vindictively destroying a helpless little guy. batch got establish very quickly and like before that it was just chaos by: various professional wrestler and the media outlet and so sort of superficial

on that level and as soon as his involvement was revealed the narrative was no reporter was going to say hey, what if steel was right. it's not a journalistic point of view that's going to happen so i to me being someone outside the journalist establishment this just read to me like epic history. this is some story, one of many anecdotes from cornelius vanderbilt's life are almost a shakespeare play. i wanted to tell it more as history unless as judgment and i think the shame of the reporting on this has been that because it's a current event everyone needs a very strong opinion about it and i think that has missed the larger picture of a witch this is just epic and almost unreal. >> you can watch this and other programs

online at book tv.org. >> here's a look at some upcoming book fairs and festivals happening around the country. at the end of may, look for us in new york city at the publishing industry's annual convention where we will talk with publishers and authors. at june 9 and 10, live at the printers row in chicago. later that month the american library association's annual conference held this year in new orleans and featured a keynote talk by former first lady michelle obama. june 23, the fdr presidential library museum hosts the roosevelt reading festival with a damn author program on the life and tenure of america's 32nd president. july 11, to make the 14 the annual libertarian conference freedom fest in las vegas. for more information about upcoming book fairs and festivals in to watch previous coverage click the book fairs have on her

website, book tv.org. >> when i started to talk about my book one of the first questions i drove out to audiences of sometime is what is the first thing that comes to mind when i say police brutality. times have changed, but usually it's been sort of the difference across generations, but almost universally male, so rodney king, oscar grant , it's been micah brown, eric garner, freddy gray and of the list goes on and even this week i think if we asked the question what is the first thing that came to mind this week in terms of police of violent we would hear stephane clark and not cynthia clements who was killed by police outside of chicago last week, so i'm often then asked why is that the case. i think my answer always

focuses on the power of the story and narratives and the story that so deeply entrenched that racial profiling and police violence happens exclusively to black men that we perceive it to be not transgender and not gay even though it might be. and that violence against women is something that only happens to white women in private spaces and some of us are just out here in the cold experiencing violence of both kinds every day. so, the goal with the book is to really expand our understanding of police violence and mass incarceration in this country by bringing into that narrative the story of black women and girls that have driven the growth in the women's prison population by 700% over the past four

decades which means the rate of growth of the women's prison population has increased at a rate 50% greater than the rate of incarceration for men, so what are the stories of the women who wind up in those cages and who are predominantly back-- black women. then, that doubles even again when we look at the population of black women or women in jail. of that has increased 14 times over the last four decades, so women might not be doing as much harder time imprisoned, but probably as much time. they are likely and then out of local jail cells instead of maybe going upstate, but there is even less programming on the less healthcare, less support in those places, but that's not part of our story. if we look at the 13th and read the new jim crow the story is one that doesn't include the story for those women and so the goal of invisible no more was to

tell more stories. to pull more stories in the mix to see how that changed. how does that actually change how we understand things, so would it make visible black women's experience with driving while black beyond the notable exception of sandra blanda? would we see differences of a woman who was the first black attorney general elected in florida who was pulled over for driving while black. would we see the stories of the woman up ferguson the year before mike brown was killed the population with the most traffic stops were black women. would we see the stories that just came out of st. louis and part of a study that shows the only group of people in which the majority of people are killed when their unarmed is black women. so, the police officers are more likely to perceive-- falsely perceived black women as a threat than any other group.

what do those stories tell us and i think it helps us to better understand this narrative of what it means to be black in america. >> you can watch this other programs online at book tv.org. [inaudible conversations] >> good evening and welcome to the strand second-floor art department. i'm nancy. i'm the owner of the strand bookstore and for some history the strand was founded by my grandfather, benjamin-- benjamin bass and 9027 a block over in an area that was known as book row. it ran along fourth avenue