>> ladies and gentlemen could morning. welcome to the council of the america. spearfish had the opportunity to welcome you back here for what promises to be a fabulous conversation on venezuela and what's next for the dp we troubled nation. my name is my name is eric farnsworth and i had the washington office of the council which for over 50 years has been a leading voice in the promotion of the mock or see open markets and the rule of law across the

americas. on sunday may 20 the venezuelan regime led by nicholas maduro reelected itself in elections that were rejected by unanimity by the international community for subsequent the united states and other nations have imposed further sanctions against the leaders of that regime in an effort to encourage venezuela to return to its democratic back. in response venezuela determined to u.s. diplomats and i safe have retaliated in kind they venezuela wants the wealthiest nation with the world's largest proven reserves of oil now experiences hyperinflation, shortages of good and medicine gross personal insecurity and increasing repression is the government uses all toolsets its disposal to maintain its control. desperate people are leaving venezuela and a gathering humanitarian crisis with some estimates suggesting fully one tenth of venezuelans population resides outside of the country.

meanwhile other actors from outside the region are increasingly active in the country and they have developed deep relations with the regime which continues to grow. the united states has clearly indicated that the highest level its commitment to counter the authoritarian march in venezuela it's a complicated and difficult snare up in our program today is to unpack the path forward and what the international amenity can do to help support the long-suffering venezuelan people. we'll begin with introductory comments with a top official for western hemisphere affairs at the white house national security council. he will be filed with a panel of experts including jennifer loton and with your edition of american states dany bahar the venezuelan economist at the brookings institution and hector schamis an expert on democratization at georgetown university. ladies and gentlemen please join me in welcoming each of them

this morning. [applause] one it's an incredibly busy time for you but there's a whole lot going on. thank you for joining us on this important topic this morning. and what to ask you up front, where do we go from here? >> eric thank you and good morning and thanks to all of you. eric asked me to participate in this panel he said i wanted to comment on something about the elections and the election results but more importantly on the way forward. for the united states there was no election. there was a selection. newsflash, maduro one and anyone who thought there would be any other outcome -- but nonetheless there are a few takeaways from this election that i will leave with you which is maduro mentioned he would win by at least 10 million votes. we know he got substantially less than that but a number that

is too close to the best of electoral numbers that chavez put together. i think everybody knows that is -- also troubling where the rates and because of the opaque nature of the regime and the numbers we don't know are probably 20 to 40% of the people came out to vote and that's very consistent with venezuelan history. the issue recognition that has been a handful of countries with the predictable a few. add to that the reports of sequestered military over the weekend. i'd say this spells trouble for the regime even one that's choreographed. the ship is taking on water and listing to one side and if i would have to say something if we look back on this one venezuela history will prove that this was probably a lost opportunity. it's an opportunity for him to

please the opposition with the international community and even though the catholic church under conditions would be respected by all. so what is next and what have we done about this? you know that last week friday the treasury department desert dated the money-laundering network for corruption and i will probably leave you with one thought which is he is one of several people we have in the hopper. these are senior folks who receive sanctioning for their corrupt prep versus. we also sandwich the -- with the president signing an initial executive order but if you heard or watched maduro's reaction you could tell it affected him deeply for we have sanctioned 70

individuals and it had 40 individual orders under this president of this is done primarily to punish those the end venezuela's public coffers but i also remind you that sanctions are not just about punishing. there's a principle aspect of sanctions that often don't get the proper coverage which is they are intended to change behavior. they are intended to change behavior so they can try to find a way out and correcting their behavior. it's also to be a persuasive factor for those who are doing the same or contemplating doing the same. you won't be sanctioned in perpetuity and there's a way out and that's the message we can remind folks of this we look at unit that measures or actions. what i would say it's to punish those who refuse and so in this aspect i'm tempted to compare

them to pol pot regime. let's talk in terms of the way they are starving their own people and how they use food as a political manipulation. these are crimes against humanity and the world will hold them accountable for it. the future lies primarily in the hands of the venezuelans. let's speak with her about that. the u.s. and the world will company it. they need to do more and every citizen needs to do more. our options are limitless to people sometimes think that we have sort of played out everything we have done until now. simply not true. we will continue pressure to restore democracy in venezuela.

we will try to get food aid to the country despite the repeated resistance by the regime to accept the food and to reject all the offers had been made for humanitarian food aid by a whole host of countries. and we will honor those who understand that the future of venezuela will be shaped by those who respect constitutional obligations. it's not the first time in an event i cite articles from the constitution written under chavez himself, a constitution that maduro is laboring to undo but that's a constitution that is today and i would like to read article 350 of the constitution which says the people of venezuela true to republican tradition and the struggle for independence and freedom shall disown any regime legislation or authority that

violates doma credit values principles and authorities or encroaches upon human rights. the shorthand on the significant parts of that, the people of venezuela shall disown any regime that violates democratic values and human rights. changing themes here, we are coming up in two weeks on the organization of america's general assembly and this is an opportunity to see who sides with the mock or see humanity and decency and what countries decide with cheating, lying, starving its own people. we will be watching and we will take notes. leslie is a reminder we will work with those in any country

who is interested in restoring democracy in venezuela. thank you. >> thank you very much and i know you have to go and i appreciate it very much that you were able to stay here but maybe i can sneak a quick question in before yet to take off. when she was at her annual conference just a couple of weeks ago the u.s. ambassador to the united nations nikki haley spoke very eloquently about venezuela and she also talked about the amount of firepower from a political perspective that the administration is giving to this very complicated issue. you alluded to additional steps that could be taken without asking precisely what those would the. if you want do we would certainly learned but to the extent there's anything further on perhaps a timeline or things

you'd be looking for from within venezuela that might be triggers of those additional steps that would be very helpful. >> of course anyone will gravitate to the option of statements -- sanctions. we want to be careful that we segment that in a careful way. if we sanctioned everyone who deserved to be sanctioned in venezuela it would lose a lot of its impact and i fear it would have a numbing effect and a powerful effect. we will continue to sanction those who need to be sanctioned especially those at the highest level for stealing from a venezuelan people and more portly is that of using that money to buy food to line their pockets. ..

>> make no mistake about it, with the venezuelan regime that is not. we don't want to contribute to that. we leave all options open. what we do next is work in concert with the nation that are like-minded on this and i am very proud. we are lockstep with those countries and that you and we appreciate that with the added

credibility for those who would like to criticize united states and what i would say is we will be as creative as we have to be to make the world smaller to make sure it is hard for you to spend it and harder for you to have access to it or family members to have access and we are working with other countries to make that world smaller and smaller for the venezuelan regime to profit from it. >> thank you. we all have questions above but we are mindful of your time. ladies and gentlemen. [applause] connect now we will continue with a panel discussion and

there was a perfect segue i don't know they were intending to do that with the leadership role on some of those issues and then ask them to speak topic with one quick acknowledgment with your government leadership and in that context but also with the g7 context into those of you who have not seen the recent statements from the g7 leaders i call to your attention focused on venezuela it truly nationalizes the topic it is in latin america but global democracy at the very highest level so thank you for your leadership there. >> it is a great pleasure with

you today and we are extremely pleased to talk about how we see the crisis in venezuela he said what i was going to say. [laughter] but essentially a problem happening in the americas to global proportions and significant and for that we are going around to others as well but bilaterally and multilaterally he think the theme for this 25 years we have been members to support democracy and human rights. and we have done a relatively good job of that you have that strongest document with the charter but the failure is to implement so how do we actually make it matter? it is important to keep in

mind what we are looking for in venezuela the constitution is a strong document. venezuelans have a democratic history and tradition they also deserve a democratic future. it seems unfortunate that to achieve that it has to come from the outside. the reason it has been removed through an election that has been globally announced as false we are not alone in that coming to that conclusion. political prisoners and opposition hijacked electoral commission we all know the reasons why this election was declared false. what do we do? how do we use those tools to bring pressure to the venezuelan government? the difficulty with the consensus -based organization into a large degree that body

has held too strictly to the principal one country disagrees then they said i guess we are all wrong but not even a cocktail party operate like that but generally speaking others can be brought forward in an agreement is developed. so the habit that we encourage is what we are all willing to do as opposed to what we know what we should do. of those that produce document and the democratic charter to find yourselves up against a wall to offer very clearly. so we spend a lot of time reminding people what those principles are and how we make them happen. when we try in that context that with cancun with a special ministerial meeting.

but what we learned there is that some member states are still not willing to take a look at the situation we were they could take the steps they need to take so we decided we cannot bring the consensus model on that issue so then we will move outside to do something else. so the idea that could work with a coalition to continue to have national pressure on the situation and that has been effective. the members of the lehman group are also members of other bodies but he released a very strong statement the other day that says we also have managed within that context since the last meeting with the climate minister so this is the political conversation but now we go deeper sanctions can be applied bilaterally and they

are targeted they are not meant to be sanctioned on the people of venezuela with those that are robbing venezuela those need to be stopped but the more we collaborate the more impact we can have and with the range with the financial at the act of the task force they can ask for financial transactions naturally but the market to be engaged in to stay aware of the corruption and in addition we can take those existing democratic bodies so that transactions with the government that did not have the authorization or approval. so in addition to engage other financial actors and make sure

they are aware not to put pressure on the government of venezuela but at the time of the americas statement was released and it was also a strong statement calling for the countries to come together to call the government of venezuela not to proceed with those elections that are not democratic it was just the process regardless of the results and there was no way organize the way it was that it could delivery democratic result and it did not. so the leaders felt that they could release those prisoners it isn't the sanctions that are starving venezuela it is the government and one is require the government to open those military and channel

mexico the latest statement by the leaning group calls for high-level meetings focusing on the impact of the situation with the refugee and immigration crisis also in the context of this crisis, diseases we thought were eradicated are now reemerging and now we see these infectious diseases spread and how that exists trying to reduce anti-infectious diseases diseases in the american now the political crisis also bringing to bear to do with the refugee migration crisis as well. and at the general assembly cancun tops the list so you learn and you try again the goal remains the same we can

use the oas do that but we need a harder look at the consensus model with a core of countries willing to do the right thing to implement the tools and principles that have done such good work in the americans. that means we need to consider this whether or not whether it calls for the consideration of that article and they will decide together but he brave enough to look at that purpose for which it was intended. and within the context to expand that circle with the organization of which we are members falsely represents the principles of democracy and we

have to ask ourselves and those are hard questions that we have to be prepared in my repair at all if we don't do the right thing. >> thank you for your personal leadership with these issues it is noticed and very much appreciated those are powerful comments that now to shift from the international diplomatic sphere to work on the ground just on the border between colombia and venezuela looking at the humanitarian situation if you follow on twitter you should follow all of us on twitter. [laughter] we have been showing in real time the crisis and tragedy going on and it is a tragedy into crisis with respect to what is happening and that is

a lesson from the crisis be met. >> thank you ambassador for being here. , yes i was in the city bordering venezuela one of the most important where they are right now those that are crossing every day. and then they cross mainly there are two kinds of people those that are just crossing for the day or for the weaker for a few days or just to find medicine or work or both at the same time. mothers with babies going to vaccinate their kids or we are

just crossing to get insulin otherwise they will die because there is no venezuelan insulin. then was fortunate to work. so for somebody like me putting most of my days they had a terrible story to have a great effort and have a number of public dining rooms with a few people every month but

there are some where the colombian government can do this is used to receive the migrants and ironically that is on the continent that you have those flow and very few countries have but this cost money. with a lot of resources so a lot of these people are refugees because that is one of the aspects that the government of the region was wary of the refugee crisis and

that legal argument to call them refugees are there. and from 1851 and from world war ii that defines people more or less from war but interestingly enough in america in 1984 in cartagena their beaks the refugees the people that are fleeing from massive violations of human rights from massive violations of human rights that so that is the case. so i do think it plays a role because if you don't call them refugees that it means the legal track for them to work and remain in the country colombia does have some

experts that that those many don't have passports for a year so people who have never traveled coming from very low background if they wanted a passport they have no money for that. so that legal aspect is there and the colombians are making an effort so far there is a big effort in the number of people those from the colombian government are 750,000 those sources of more than 1 million they are as we

verify that that should and within a month but they say that's not an issue. but it is important to know those numbers. and then to have a sense of how many resources. but the directors are very generous to provide to provide it is very much welcome that much more. so just to give you an idea that if you think the cost for the refugees like germany or jordan or lebanon and you make that calculation into

purchasing power are talking about $3500 per refugee per year. so i think a conservative estimate would be that you would see her have something that women seen as refugees and think that is very conservative with $5 billion to give that protection such as food and health that is an annual basis. >> yes. >> just to think of refugees so i will also just put up and give you a sense of the right way to think because i want to show you some numbers.

similar countries but if you look of those humanitarian so the latest number 87% includes that 1% living in the extreme according to the 84% in 2014 so in three years this number is almost double. there are some in 2017 that in average over 20 pounds and jokingly be very prophetic.

80% of households .4 million venezuelans suffer but the official numbers of the percentage of babies at a 300,000 with the infant mortality rate. the numbers between 2015 and 20 team 80% benign b9b9 and from the dialysis treatment and in those diseases that they did get rid of in the

1960s they got rid of malaria but now they have 100,000 pieces. but still the major is between 2013 that the said 100 30,000 in those years. this is part of the reason we see people fleeing. so i think they are conservative between the number of venezuelan tween 90,900,000 as we said before they have 150,000 but venezuela is in a state of war and that is why with the

refugee crisis to either center on the un or the situation keeps getting worse and then with what they are receiving. >> you can't ask the problem until you recognize the right problem and those are not good statistics nevertheless because we have been vaguely aware of but when you put it in those terms it really hits home so thank you. and now we have hector brought into the conversation a true expert on democracy across latin america actually we have

seen some interesting developments across latin america like we never had election or governments traditionally reluctant to pay dues and much of the republic suddenly has become much more interested in addressing these issues like other countries and canada and the united states also in your home country of argentina but what issues can you bring to the table? >> thank you for inviting. so talk about the future,. >> so in the right direction

because of the different government whether left-wing or right-wing governments for elections is not going as fast as you like it to happen as they are very hesitant that one of the things i said on sunday was is time for the latin american countries to have sanction like the european union and although not a member of the european union but yet as a government official is not impossible that they know the assets or

the media in the most exclusive on-site. so that is one thing. with they should know because technically that entails as a result of the election into the ambassadors. and the european ambassadors are witnesses to what is going on. so there should be more obligation in not less.

it was the prisoners were there. >> and what happened and i think the community has the obligation at the very least this juncture especially for the latin american deal with the elephant in the room we

haven't had the word cuba yet. and 20000 more modest or 50000 in those estimation remaining it is very difficult to produce. and the officers are there to point fingers for those who are arrested and for the cubans to pull out but cuba has that liberation army.

and as long as that continues you once investment okay. there is a political negotiation there. but the other thing that is extremely important now to have a conversation with a couple of decisions leaders that it is time for the government in exile to be created and during world war ii to have a government under occupation to be occupied by series of criminal invasion. so the supreme court that

there needs to be a branch in exile as well. . . . . >> to get that information and more. finally, we need to start

thinking as today i'm describing the news that you can find around infant mortality syria, the crisis in the americas, the worst refugee crisis we've seen in history. we also have to deal with internal -- in the place of columbia. it is time to perhaps explore the possibility of -- with brazil which are the largest recipient of refugees.

it's under the affairs of the un. it's time to work out the diplomatic steps. if the intervention entails some degree of logistical operation workers don't go there by themselves, they go with the force in a conflict zone. and the regime have rejected in the form of a and will continue to do so. it has been written profusely. it is a cuban recipe. whoever stays stays subjugated. but that needs to be expedited.

they need to act upon what it is they need to work as long as the regime is in office. the worst refugee crisis we ever had. on that note. thank you. i will stop. >> hector, thank you for your outstanding comments. that is a lot to take in. three outstanding presentations. i'm can ask to react to some of these comments and give you the first opportunity to do that. hector raised a provocative comment subtly. this one talk about the elements being cuban.

the issue of humanitarian assistance, if the government does not accept it somebody has to push it in there. that implies some sort of use of force, does it not? jennifer, let me ask you that question. as a master, you can help us with that i. >> thank you for the question. the comments we made at the outset were very quick in the conflict situation there is a lot to say. one thing is that contributions canada has, you cannot impose sanctions and not take into consideration the impact. numbers, $4 million which

hopefully we can get things in, also $2.2 million being channeled locally. the ambassadors are active and engaged in visiting some of these areas. you use the tools you have at hand. it throws it into a sharp release. the reason the aid is not getting it is not because it is not being offered. there's plenty of efforts underway. but, the government of venezuela continues to refuse to allow this. and american institutions are trying to do their job and do something about the rice. we need to continue to provide support, political and diplomatic and moral supports.

at the end of the day, the responsibility is clear. in needs to be on the shoulders of those in venezuela and those who are supporting the regime. either through their action or lack of action are allowing it to continue. those who refuse to stand up and join and to the right thing, what our own documents have said we are doing. they must ask themselves questions about that what they may be a. we have been active to try to impact the crisis. we have done it globally and within the hemisphere and to create partnerships. the most important ones of those in the government of venezuela and those who will not stand up into the right thing. >> fair enough.

for those who may not be familiar, -- we will come back to hector. you are the economist on the panel. on one hands we talk about sanctions. not just squeezing individuals for democratic but we are squeezing the macro economy so the government finds it in its interest to return to some democratic path. is that the impact that will be had? as governments are taking the steps, is that going to have or will it that be the intended impact? what could be done further?

>> the way i viewed it is there two types of sanctions, the first one of the ones in place in the u.s. tries to close loopholes still open which is stopping venezuela from issuing more debt. so you get a sense that it is highly embedded. it has defaulted. i saw that they stopped repaying some of their loans very recently. back about ten years ago venezuela could have paid off all its debt with four to five months of exports. today they need over five years

of exports to repay. they are unsustainable. the reason it started is it did the opposite of what you would learn in your first economics 101 class in the very first 30 minutes. when you have an oil boom like venezuela had, you to not go and spend the money immediately and borrow more. you save some money and then when the seven years is gone you have the savings to deal with a bad situation. it's not very popular but that is the right thing to do. but venezuela and chavez, they are responsible. that overspent all of the money.

they destroyed the private sector and that is why it was leading up imports. when it goes down and you have no more money to borrow you cannot import anything. that is why you have people dying of hunger. then you go to the last resource and start printing money. even though some great economist said there is no link between printing money and inflation, i think that has proven it is not the case. so these collapse and drop the gdp of the country has nothing to do with the sanctions. these type of sanctions stopping the government from issuing where debt are important it should be there. but they are cosmetic. this country can get more debt.

i would not lend a penny to a government who will not pay you back. so the sanctions they put on themselves with microeconomic policies. they're good to be there but what they are really affecting the ability of the venezuelan government to manage its econo economy. it is mismanagement that got them there. so, there are sanctions that one says all options are on the table. but there are some for the u.s. to stop buying oil from venezuela. the government of venezuela are so against when they keep

diplomats in the u.s., why don't they stop selling oil through the u.s. but speaking as an economist, that would be a bad idea. it will put more pressure in the venezuelan people but it's good to have a huge impact in the long run. even if we think the government does some point there is something very important with the u.s. buying oil with refineries in the u.s. is if they are not being used for venezuelan oil they will be taking away and refine oil. getting back into the market is costly. the one thing i believe is important are the sanctions. as we spoke, they should not

only be financial. it is important to rally together and freeze assets, but also have people there are venezuelan officials who visit mexico every month to visit their kids and they hang around and use their money. why are we allowing those people to get into those countries? they should be banned from entering. the last thought is the personal sanction they should continue to start targeting middle to high ranking officials. if we can learn something, it's

important to think about the way in which this can be done progressively. and even announced so if a middle ranking venezuelan official knows a month from the sanctions are going to jump, maybe they will have an incentive to go against the government. this could be progressive and have a huge impact. >> i would like to explore that further but we do not have time. that's interesting. and your point about the narrative about what is causing economic collapse that's most comfortable place for the supporters of the regime. and for them to retreat something the international community in the united states for sanctions which have nothing to do with the collapse of the venezuelan economy.

thank you for putting the responsibility for the chavez government. jennifer has been called for a special session so she is going to depart. let's get a final comment in. >> first, a, the only example you provide in latin america about the ability is chilly. unless the, because it has institutions designed for that purpose, norway is in europe and it has the benefit the resource is there. whether it's copper the effect

has always been the same. but the comments about sanctions, there is plenty to be done in the realm of targeted sanctions. relative to the criminal some power they are not guilty but using monies that come out of corruption robbery that is a crime as well. the should i go to jail perhaps but should not be troubling north america as they too. and one more about personalized sanctions. on tuesday the report of the oas and the friends against humanity is coming up. been told is a substantial report with a few hundred pages. i with the accommodation of the

panel of jurists. to be referred from the criminal court and the international criminal court has responsibility on individuals [inaudible] state. you cannot get any more personalized in terms of sanctions. members of the oes are european countries will be good candidates to join this effort every for the report. that would be a good opportunity for collective action strategy among the countries. thank you.

>> the venezuelan crisis is not your typical latin american crisis. it requires a historic and strong response from the international community in my view. i am delighted on behalf of the council of america's with the depth and timeliness, and sophistication of this conversation. it's been fabulous. i hope you will all come back to the council. my only regret is it takes a humanitarian tragedy to bring such wonderful speakers and analysts to the table. on behalf of the council, please accept our thanks and congratulations. please join me in thanking the panel. [applause]

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