>> sam sorbo, bruce herschensohn and joel pollak. also your belinda california thank you for your hospitality. [inaudible conversations] >> hi everybody.

my name is heather and the executive director and how many of you are here for the first time? well thumb. it is wonderful to have you and welcome back. we are a hybrid center for arts culture and ideas to reenactment and the way it can be useful and inspirational in our everyday life. we are so pleased to have mark here with us this evening a singular force marketing advertising and political strategy for over 40 years he advised people you have probably never heard of like bill and hillary clinton bill gates and tony blair working with most the powerful brands in business including ford and microsoft. he change the way we thought about swing voters by focusing

on soccer moms is a term that he coined and also looking at the trends like the new york rise of internet dating. and the fracturing of the republican party in his book micro trends now his newest book "microtrends squared" builds on his promise that behavior of one small group can create a disproportionate influence in the united states and it is such ane interesting read and it prepares us for what comes next and what we might be ready for or might not be. or the rise of the open marriage, i'm not ready. but he will open the room for questions and then using the microphoneo right here and then

before welcome mark to the stage and then to his wife nancy jacobson who are dedicated supporters thank you both. please give mark penn a warm welcome. [applause] >> all this preparation and i don't have the clicker. thank you very much for coming out tonight. the book is dedicated to nancy and my four children.

and the collaborator is also here. i will give you a roundup of micro trends. so i have a theory of the case of micro trends which is that to think about the things that have beenav happening and that those daca recipients are creating a political movement the last election decided by 8000000 voters and critical states. so the point of the book is that the things that you regard as too small or insignificant to be pivotal of how things, and society or

even some small groups can wield some influence. so i tell people the most interesting thing is to find yourself and if you find yourself that gives credibility to the chapters of the other peopleha because a lot of people is that people know about themselves and the book tries to cover in the counterintuitive way but before you get to the micro trends there are certain things in society that resulted micro trends but first is the drive for

personalization and individual i choice because after all if we wore the same close there would not be micro trends at all.out now in business i go back to say do your remember henry ford who created the four economy with the ability to mass producee products so based on the theory today we will all have the same close, everybody in china that just isn't how the economy turned out. ten years ago i wrote about the starbucks economy 185 different varieties of a commodity that has coffee.ks

and when you go into starbucks they do all the work. you tell them what you wanted they gave you choice but the ipod which is out of circulation but the soundtracks you did the work.it and the unique feature so we have the starbucks economy today but today it is the uber economy picking you up from anyplace to take you anybody else thatac means not in a world of 155 choices but infinite choices. and that is the standard of micro targeting with the individuality in that personalization down to you. that is a critical track.

so the unexpected problem with all of these choices. the problem was that more choices lead to less choice. how is that? i try to illustrate this that if america was a restaurant just with chicken or fish, not a tremendous amount of passion. or steak or sushi either they love that but everyday they have sushi the state gators every day have steak. now think of that in the news. every day they watch t i msnbc d every day they watch fox more

result in dividing themselves out but then they stop experimenting when people go to starbucks today they say give me the regular so choice became so good it carved people up so that explains a lot of what we see going on. another thing that i emphasize that is the impossible version is whatha i say is that your county and law of friends that for every trend there is a countertrend or for every technology loving group for

every group everything you can imagine her every political movement they don't necessarily have to be equal but as counter trends are bigger than you think. 2million-foot flow lung -- flip flown lung -- flip phone and then they said i don't want to live like that. that is how society survived. so now look at the counter trends that delved into the stuff that you see. information and also misinformation at the very same time. so millennial's dominate the theme and now those that have never been more powerful.

smart phone and flip phone service and silicon valley, what do you think is going on? that is the conflict between silicon valley and those voters from pennsylvania to indiana and then you see that taking place before your eyes to understand what you see ando the reason why there is so much combat with the seesaw to go back and forth with thosend trends. >> versus common sense politics they have policies. international trade.

those are egg head theories. and to be integrated with the economy. primarily theoretically the base thosens commonsense policies. so you see that reestablishment but how about some direct commonsense? the people have never ever been more educated than they are today more than two thirds go to college and one of the biggest problems is that the most educated among us and then to be the most susceptible. so when i was working for

hillary somebody said if she was just more likable i would vote for her. then somebody would say if the healthcare plan would besides cost over coverage i would be more interested in voting for her. you would think it would be reversed. that the person coming about the intricate details has a phd and to tell better jokes. but it was not that way but what happens from these problems they have no idea what the employer pays for healthcare p and the middle class voters are more educated with greater access to information with a much greater connection to policy. so there has been a flip

around of the democratic model and people don't realize that was 2500 people pushing those points out to the elite. pushing those points out to the elite. the more susceptible you are. so that is why understanding the battle between the trend and the countertrend is important to understand that society that is beyond understanding. although the book is not an election book it is more about lifestyle i did that without giving away comment on the last election and what i thought was pivotal. i don't think it was about $100,000 spent on facebook. i do think it is the old economy voters interestingly

when i left working for president clinton manufacturing jobs had stabilized at 20 million i thought they would stabilize for quite some time because we had growth of 24 million jobs due to the manufacturing jobs but it turns out over the next two presidencies half of those jobs were lost. we were down at 11 million there was an enormous transformation and many of these states and with a powerful political force. we think everything is dominated by young people but there are more old people in our society today than ever before when jfk was elected young people 18 through 29 were roughly twice the population group as those over 65 and today it is about people and climbing on the

oldercl t side and what you saws older voters reasserting themselves to say i'm not ready for the things that need to come in from the millennial's and to take the power back. society divided themselves and we are about the same number of liberals and conservatives may be more conservatives than liberals but we have become very liberal people have become more intense as they consume the steak and the sushi.s so essentially we have seen this polarization to drive our utlitics to be much more combat is but i do think this wing of the old economy voters like democrats is critical and of course the elites in unbelief that donald trump

could win. 93% chance that we would win so therefore they accepted that talking point they didn't see the changes occurring to make it possible. so they were left in stunned shock ever since. so not only the dynamics of politics but a couple of critical things that are changingng that i think that are also worth deserving. so what i call footloose and france -- fancy free now typically will go to college and push back five years marriage family and children. that means a lot of people will now spend ten or 15 years here or in the urban areas

which caters exactly to that phenomenon because when people marry their high school sweetheart, the number of years they had on their own were almost none. now there is a lot of years on their ownes with roommates it is a great thing with the datings and the number of relationships people have andum the implications of this people spending so much more time to gather in this lifestyle we are just beginning to understand. unfortunately in the end, one of the things we observe in the book that the more money people get in the more time they get the first thing they get rid of his kids. you would think it would be the opposite but almost in every society there is tremendous slowing of population growth we are in danger of almost going

negative population growth. seniors are living longer. richer than ever before because of the policies put into place 100 years ago and on the one hand more conservative and having a lot more fun. also the cities have had a real revival while the rural areas have had a population drain during that time they kept a lot of their political power divided by state and area with the electoral college to emphasize that. so the question will be what do we do with all this land? we always thought as a kid we were told where will anybody go as they go to the urban centers? so changes in technology, data

is the new goal the most viable thing because forve every markete marketer, they need data. he will talk how the ai bots are coming. that artificial intelligence creates to haveat been in rerelationship increasingly will be a factor in the way to interact with technology with a new dimension i am very negative by the way i don't think that will be a reality and also we will come back to that but that big data obviously but i am lucky if i have a similar picture of my great grandmother. today every person has a data

set or if you use pampers or took formula it is an amazing amount of data one of the first customers of microsoft and the cloud was an elevator company with 50000 elevators a chicken -- information on every elevator with no idea that you go through daily life y now so much of what you do is recorded to predict when the elevator will break down or if they have a camera look at who was in the elevator you have no idea how much data is out there and how much personal information is created. that is why the whole thing with facebook i think brings back a debate from when i was

at microsoft i presented to people that did you know your mail and your checks are scanned and read in all the information you think is personally in private is analyzed you went to the doctor you need a medicine you have no idea what information the companieswh are gathering and i don't think it is a bad thing necessarily that they gather it but it's that you don't know that to make the intelligent choice that you couldn't choose privacy becausee that just slid right past you and it is an interesting exercise facebook and google have just revealed how you can download all the informationnf and it is amazing even i was shocked. a so take that as backdrop to the big things going on and talk about the micro trends.

one of my favorite, it turns out if you are 65 and single it turns out there are 100 single women for every 62 men. the gap has been closing a little bit but not everybody had internet dating in the past now they are a little richer. stdsot were not a problem before. but now in fact years are living a whole new dating life if you can't make in high school but make it to 65 and single they are having the time of their life.e. [laughter] so the book starts off with relationships because i want people to get interested in

the book. this one i love this but i will ping-pong between the older generation but to be single with pat typically the old pet model was you had a couple of kids then they demanded a pet you reluctantly gave in and join the family. micro trends part one i talk about how when kids go off to college the parents felt they were empty-nesters so then i got pets treating them like children to give them incredible amounts a of staff that now people hang around ten or 15 years before they get married or have a family how about getting a dog now? so 70% of millennial's now have a pet it is a tremendous

number. look at the pet industry like $70 billion it is incredible. the only problem with this is the pooch also gets incredible amounts of love because there is no children to compete and then the dog walker and then the guilty feeling so they get the food and pet hotels and spas and all of that are doing incredibly well if the single with pat gets married and has a child and that dog is in for an incredible shock when they are number two. of course then we will need more pet psychologist. [laughter] so the people over 90 are

pretty much aware. i didn't realize i was looking at that yesterday about 96 but it has quadrupled from 700,000 at two and a half million and headed in the next 20 or 30 years at 8 million so to have a tremendous explosion of people living over 90 to get to 65 you have about a 30% chance to live at least 290.ob one of that exposes job categories we don't have a shortage of them and it is an interesting area for robotics. so footloose and fancy free the point that i was making that if you think about this

all of these years and it turns out spending ten or 15 years on their own sharing is not your first instinct. [laughter] so you do get married but i have a chapter on the independent marriage that says more separate bedrooms are being built there never before. we are married no problem but i like the light off. so a lot of these habits are the way couples are revolving so there will be many repercussions and it is critical to revitalize the urbanoin areas and urban housing. now it has been bad for religion. a lot of people don't get ase religious until they have their first child and that is a transforming experience.

one thing that goes so well is that they do keep interested nationally looking at younger people you will see religion falling off. on the other end of the spectrum are cancer survivors there were not a lot of cancer survivors before because part of what happens is disease like heart disease were pullbacks of peopleve could live longer and there is more cancer. so there is a group in terms of the numbers i believe 13 million cancer survivors think in the book about myself in this class it is an incredible experience if you get that diagnosis with a

tremendous amount of attention nothing is good but no support groups people don't even harassed me for contributions they just lose track of you because the system was never set up for survivors. and it was never much of a class of people. now they become a larger more activela class and effective in many ways the way they look at life and a lot of micro trends are people like the soccer moms could be recognized as a group and brought together for some reason or for public good.oo kids on medications, there has been an incredible spike of

the adhd diagnosis. and we are talking triple in so depending on the age category, ten through 15% of children or teenagers below who are now diagnosed with this and 80% typically will be medicated. now my daughter who is a psychiatrist has said you have to understand, by the way it is two/one boys and interestingly very little in the minority community intel the obamacare expansion made these drugs with their healthcare more available to a broader class so you have seen an increase in minority

families whose kids also have these. so was that a good thing or a bad thing? the case for a good thing is it is incredibly difficult to get through schoolff today. it is much more demanding requiring more attention and focus so you can say it is helping millions m of kids not only make life a little easier for parents but also to get them through school but the bad thing is we don't really know the long-term effects of having kids on medication from age two or five or 17 and today expect that to be lifelong? will they need that? we don't know that part of micro trends they hear is the't phenomenon, everybody is so focused on the opioid crisis they're not looking at the explosion of kids on meds

typically they don't look at a problem until it is too big or out of control but now we can look to say is this right? is this good? so the bot industry is information the first bot i think people interacted with was really the atm machine. i e am old enough i did polling for the banks with the atm machine people were incredibl incredibly -- frightened. [laughter] now they don't want to talk to the teller. but today you have to be careful because we have things like alexa who is program to respond to your questions and is much more sophisticated i talked about the sex bot

industry so is alexa he or she? does anybody want to answer? it is and it's.th a fundamental ethical principle that a bunch of code is never called he or she the literature very carefully they dance around the point if you ask alexa alexa says i am in female character. that is a slimy answer because it avoids the question. alexa does not say im it. she left that it went -- out. but that is the concept to make you feel you are having a relationship when in fact are

you talking to a salesperson in theer middle of your living room trying to sell you the next amazon shipment or talking to a friend? you don't know. i work intact so i know but what happens is overtime with technology it starts off as a friend but that drive for monetization transforms into selling you stuff was on the google page more and more advertisements less and less organic search even if you use one of thepp mapping programs now they try to sell you that are in the middle because somebody at headquarters said let's get some more money. getting this information for free. but the problem is you don't know what the spots will be like or who they are working for or how they areyoon program.

it would be good for you to know there is a choice between killing you or a killing a pedestrian which will it choose? i do warn about that. also the emerging marijuana market 20% now because of california and colorado is recreational. but the contrast is 200 billion in size with the canadian cannabis fax but what i suggest if you think of products to be upscale marijuana will be in cruises and restaurants and clubs the rest of the market is a commodity.

this is something you should keep track of. corian beauty is a very good example of how by following trends, koreans and actually the korean have ordered more of these books than any other country it is a small country but they follow trends and they are veryy successful. and the beauty industry is $13 million they export the beauty products in started the concept of the glass skin the way the french in the. time of cosmetics. so this is an incredible example how micro trends could be carved out with really smart and enterprising entrepreneurs.

you remember when the government told you had to have carbohydrates and everybody got fat in the government said no we were wrong now it is protein? the basically today they believe protein is it but if you examine what protein was the winner? now it is chicken. that was the enormous winter because in fact chicken consumption went 20001 -- 20 pounds perer person now and 90 pounds i think china would be an incredible growth market besides chicken taste good doesn't have as many health problems. but the trend says they were collapsing and now have

stabilized but salmon went up because americans don't eat a lot of fish i thought sushi would be big but it is only a strong. that was a very washington d.c. view. [laughter] my father was in the chicken business. old economy as i said before they play a pivotal role in making that the last three or four presidencies, i think they were right in the macro economic sense to pursue that from the egghead point of view but they really underestimated the economic damage. but with politics and democracy accounts hillaryut said she got the votes from

the gdp area that is the whole point there were a lot of people in those areas that said policy has raked us over the coals and we did not adequately understand that now that has been made clear. couch potato voters. it turns out 90 million people who are eligible to vote. who don't. i called him the couch potato voters. and the problem with this is that it is so large that we run the campaign but now we go for the swing voters and then to pitch to the other side and then you bring people together. people say it is hard work to

get from one side to the other but by being more inflammatory it is a defect in the system that this potato is as large as it is because if we had more universal voting because turnout is not the divisive factor. when it is division is the way people in elections and that means with the unity that you had the day before and that is a systematic problem.f so i think this is the final one of the trends. if you are in your 50s or 60s you remember a single housekeeper took care of everything but now today there has been an explosion wire somebody people employed with technology?

because it turned out instead of buying more things like another car a lot of millennial's don't even own a drivers license but they wanted more services. medication, massage, nails, therapy, pet therapy, dog walking, so 40% of the economy is services today the 56. now we are in the pampering economy what people do with their extra money they spend it on themselves even more with servicesey and products than ever before. so now you can have five or ten people who helped to get across the finish line. >> so the book goes through 50

trends like this and eventually will come down to what are the benefits and the changes? and again i took a little more time and i will rush through a little bit but in terms of benefit there is an incredible presence of personalization and technology today is universal you have the very same smart phone that bill gates has. in those services that were available only to a few people but on the other hand big tech has become superpowerful. big data does strip people of privacy so they can be full can i and families are victims of prosperity. so my point coming out of this book is we have the wonders but we have to start working on theal other side or we will

find yourself with increasing problems. so i go through in the book changing antitrust laws to study the economy with a new set of ethics, give people more control over personal data but i try to say not just that we have these problems but a pretty good set of from eddie's for those problems although down to the caucuses that had too much power. and finally, i would say everyone i hope you read the book will find themselves and understand a few things that data is king if you are in business you have to understand your i customers in deep and meaningful ways because if you don't, your competitor will to be more

effective at marketing and you will be out of business. that is a cold reality. services and products. remember the marketplace there is a counter marketplace. there is a corollary and the hope that you will find that micro trent weather and the personal life or religious life it can have meaning to understand society to give direction and explanation. thank you very much. [applause] >> we can take about ten minutes of questions. >> when i first saw your topic i thought i would ask about

teacher strikes and what that tells you about any changing that is a fundamental change but then i see that the chart that shows that people lie to the pollsters in person and give moreor meaningful information when they are online so what does that say abouten dave -- data integrity and trends? >> first with the teacher strike a do have aer chapter don't go into teaching at this moment if you will be sure it is language teaching at universal translators that i am very much taken by a finding by one of the poles that i do that 40% of people

are afraid to tell their political views to family and 60% at work. so i do believe, and i conclude there is ten or 15 million people who are more conservative son in conservative areas that is a countertrend because overall there isnc a 5% difference between the online polls and that is the effective people feeling more comfortable and anonymous online but always remember the secret ballot is very important. i believe in polls they are indicative but there are differences and i wouldn't govern by the polls. i would use them as an aide but not a definitive method.

>> what do you see with the crypto currency trend? >> it's a disaster. [laughter] >> it is the classic impression but i say there is no value. people think there is a methodology in the block chain that could be used to complete confidential transactions and to verify that which is different from crypto currency marketplace which is now down from 6000 but there is no government behind it. people barely believed in currencies backed by government why would they believe if they are backed by nobody? so the whole phenomenon is

classic impression that i see nothing but doom and gloom. but i do think that it will take another 20 or 30 years but computers to be good enough and ai will be good enough to do 100,000 miles and they are discovering that relatively quickly it won't be never but i do think they are overexcited and over invested in the technology right now. last question if you are not a big question group?

>> do you think there is a correlation between increase of adhd medication and the opioid addiction that we see now? >> it would correlate in the sense that i think they both came up at the same time. but i don't know if i could find a causal relationship. i don't think it is because parents who are taking opioid or have them prescribed to kids, but i do think this was a phenomenon it was much more upper-class and now it has spread universally so i do think it correlates more with the greater availability of prescriptions and by doctors

and i think more and more parents want their kids to succeed in school. i don't think they are connected i don't think there is a causal relationship but the question you have were drug companies behind it? [inaudible] >> so that is what i am hinting that this is developing now over the last ten or 15 years so i don't think those kids are those opioid kids but the question is if these kids will become the opioid kids and that is where they say we better double check this and to make sure that doesn't happen because now you areng talking

not just a small amount of member kids that attend or 15 million kids. >> you just spoke about healthcare but i have a question with a different aspect. we have seen mergers since the first of the year with dbs and aetna and walmart and scripps the pharmacy benefit managers. what is this leading to? we are breaking down the silo in the industry where people can perhaps the not insured that members of the conglomerate can compete. maybe each on will be like a mini national health service

in the u.k. and it can be good or bad but where do you think this is leading and do we have to worry about mandates with the affordable care act if the trend continues i think the unexpected development is the resurgence of the development will -- insurance companies the thought is that they would be gone by now they really didn't serve a purpose in the marketplace that was wrong or policy decided not to tingle so now you see the insurance companies have a more lasting presence in the marketplace and you will continue to see that. some of those mergers in the pharmaceutical service with

all three levels the now injury. to be sustained growth in healthcare. not result in continued growth and opportunity and second look at big data and how that revolutionizes these companies. cvs is not the old cvs and frankly it is in the amazon either for somebody to come along to give that experience. that this industry is waiting for that. but the bottom line is less change than we thought.

measure the reduction of the mandate that was paid mostly by young people who didn't want the insurance anyway we have to see where that goes and with politics. if there is a stop if it doesn't swing back then it will after that. >> looking at your micro trends focused on date so how do they relate to the restor of the world given the internet with the homogeneity? >> we do focus about 80% on the u.s. because most of them

will say is the same thing happening? so take for example that that is happening everywhere with one exception do you want to guess where? china. because they have a one child policy so mysteriously that one child policy they only had boys. so they have a zillion boys in their 60s -- guys in their 60s they are a countertrend tuesday with that leader you receive the same thing happening? then we look for certain ones around thed world. so let's give some to those that are originating.

>> last question? >> probably there were more than 50 trends. is it because you are shifting these policies. are some more important than others? >> i think spending time we have refined the list. and that is counterintuitive.

what was read about the environment so part of it is to give you something that is interesting to thinkar t about. but the truth of the matter is it could be 500 micro trends. . . . . manufacturing workers and women who were going to work, leaving their kids during the day and what kind of new policies. in that case, it really was not just an advertising slogan, it was a deep exploration of

policies whether it was drug-free in schools or otherwise. and so, you could look at this book is just hey, i want to see what that's going on or you could look at this book as an investor in something like the important trends that will continue or if there's more growth or if you can find places where that will develop, or you could look at this as a business person. last time i had a chapter about how parents tell their children not to go out and get son and they retooled their whole line of clothing to be so unproductive. also, having worked with president clinton for six years, very sensitive to the policy implications. in the uk. they actually bottled

some taxes after the spread there's a big concern about the lack of children and families that are the result of prosperity, education and the different kind of work cycle that no one ever wants to talk about but probably does require a lot of work. unless we are willing to have no population growth internally. i think that's one more important, i think some of them have taken onon more significan, some, certainly the dreamers may have taken on significance. some things turned out differently than i thought like internet marriage. i got internet marriage would actually be something that would mix up society to the sense where someone now could socialize was someone out there who they never would've met and

if it would make for more social diversity. in fact, it turns out, just like my first model, people choose it for people like them and now they can find 50 people who are like them and have 50 days according to people who are just like them and unexpectedly it's turning out to be exactly the opposite. it's important understand that. all 50 trends are my pets so i'm not sure i would choose one over the other but you are finding some are more important to society than not. with that, i think you did them happy to sign books i hope you enjoy it. [applause] [inaudible conversation]

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