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tv   Andrew Selee Vanishing Frontiers  CSPAN  July 7, 2018 8:01am-9:01am EDT

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krista lawless and the effect it's having on our bodies. computer scientists in a philosopher argues against the use of social media they advanced into enemy -controlled parts. that is all this we can on book tv on c-span two. for complete schedule visit book tv.org. we kick off the weekend with injured seeley. its influence on the u.s. is my great pleasure to introduce to my speaker mister injured seeley.
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he is a regular, calmness and previously serves as a member on the council of foreign relations. please get a very warm welcome to mister injured seeley. thank you louis. thank you to gregory and joe and bianca and everyone else. this is a phenomenal organization an opportunity to be with all of you. not only connecting people with ideas but also really cataloging and dissecting that. it sounds like it's about the united states in mexico and why it is as much mexico.
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are they becoming one country. i think the answer is probably a resounding no. we are much closer than we think. we are much closer than people on either side is. they had been beginning to fall apart. they're far more connected than we've ever been. let's start with the news of the day. 2026 whose hosting the world cup. mexico the united seats in canada. north america world cup bid. very exciting actually. mexicans would've been reluctant.
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i suspect mexicans would've been reluctant to do a bit with the united states seen as as an overbearing partner. in my sense is we probably didn't have the awareness respect to do it 20 years ago. a lot has changed in the short time. my guess is that would've taken until now for this to happen. it may seem odd we are at a time where if we listen to the political rhetoric things are pretty tense. if we believe the tweets that we see coming across were actually driving further apart from mexico. i'm getting to argue to you tonight. that we should believe more in the world cup bid than what we see in politics. they were actually coming together around north america. it's more where we are headed in the future. and what we see coming out in political discourse. in stomach that doesn't matter it's not because it comes down to that.
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or that are happening below the political level. and in the book vanishing frontiers. and ultimately tell it as a story. i meditate for four stories it's all different assets. into a larger story. but perhaps what i'd i like to call intimate strangers. without the ability to understand how that comes together. let me start where the book starts. not at the border.
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i decided to start in hazleton pennsylvania. a number of people who have been there. my guess is that if you've heard of hazleton except if you had spent time there. we have probably heard of it because there was a place. that was in 2006 not that long ago. there were protests for and against immigrants. it was largely put on the national map. it is a city that has gone through. it is a fascinating town.
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i think it's actually going places. and as a town that wears immigration on its sleep. but pass immigration. when you walk down the street you see churches of almost every denomination. and then other kinds of churches. it is a city that was built by immigrants. and happens from the earlier migration. it happens in the mid- 1990s. mostly people who have lived in new york.
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there were jobs in hazleton for the first time. and the quality of life for people who had grown up. they wanted to give that to their children. it's not surprising that tensions would've wrapped in hazleton. there is a very rapid shift in demographics. some of those were over services. there is also a spike in crime. as you all know they are much less likely to commit crimes. we utilizing teenagers growing up in new york city. and later went down. has anyone been to hazleton
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recently. you will see it as a town that does not it was filled with boarded up buildings. today it is thriving. the small businesses everywhere. even a very classy men's store downtown. it's not surprising. whether they are from latin america or from europe or asia or anywhere else in the world. and something we don't completely understand. you see a turnaround that have been in the long economic decline. now, not only has immigration harness new energy and done
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what immigrants done. they're in this book actually. of immigrants and one of the stories i like. they have a long way to go. they become a very long way in a short. of time. the migrants themselves investing in their home towns. this is something you see in hazleton. and something you see here in the los angeles area.
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about what they are throughout the united states. in the development arm. they did to move beyond what migrants had always done. things that really do a lot of good for communities. it was important to invest in businesses. read that chapter. they were creative in how they did this. this is how they went about finding ways of investing in these businesses. the other thing that happens in hazleton that as fascinating is that it was the epicenter of the american
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immigration debate. but a few years later it turns out there were four factories. providing employment to american workers. two of them that are inside hazleton. fuller to spread company in the world. it's a mexican company. you even know in the united states sara lee. or thomas english muffins. not as english as a used to be. it turns out that the largest bread company comes from a mexican company. there is a tortilla plant in the next town over.
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if anyone has eat lived on the east coast. the official potato chip four factories around hazleton owned by mexican companies. it's an interesting story not because this is a story of every tab in the united states as it moved for a time where a lot of people were going across the border. and the capital across the border. it's not just bread or tortillas. it's one of the largest in milk and yogurt.
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and reports actually. the port of los angeles largely operated. as well as seattle and new york and a lot of the other ports in the u.s. let me tell you about this for a second. is about $17 billion. that's a lot. but it's still up small piece of our overall economy. it begins to tell you the tie the complexity of this relationship. like hazleton and the towns around it. towns that once have a large flow of mexican immigration. and it begins to create a different relationship. it's in a place called popular -- poplar bluff missouri.
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the largest nail plant in the united states. it's not an industry that has been particularly well in the united states. they have largely displaced the u.s. nail industry. we would have this conversation outside on the lawn. it was trying to hold itself against the tide. it was brought by their provider of steel. in the first encounter in the story of the book. they go to the midcontinent plant and says were going to expand the plant. down the street they have just closed and air-conditioning print and moved it to mexico. they have every reason to
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believe that they are next. i talk about this. this is a complex relationship. our relationship with mexico has been critical in creating jobs overall in the united states. there is a net benefit to us economically. you can't separate the industrial platform. it doesn't mean that no jobs had ever moved to mexico. it doesn't mean that no american companies had ever come in this is a complex relationship. a lot of things happen. the workers look to him distrust fleet fully with every reason thinking that he was about to close down the plant but sure enough overtime they managed to integrate the seal from the company. to stay ahead of the curve and compete with imports. in to hire more workers.
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nails is a small niche industry. i insist without nails we would not be here. let's take a larger industry. automobiles. automobiles if you remember those old enough to remember that 1980s and early 19 '90s we suspected and we fought at the american car industry and it was about to collapse. that didn't happen. the u.s. car industry became more efficient. they managed to make better cars more efficient cars but one of the critical things that happened was the u.s. auto industry into grated. it's not just the world cup bid. also in terms of automobiles we make cars together.
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almost impossible to get into a vehicle today. got into a vehicle somewhere so that a car or bus or train an airplane almost certainly it was made jointly by workers in the united states and mexico in canada because the industries are completely there across the border. chances are that vehicle was made in north america and primarily in the united states but with some component parts coming from mexico in canada. there are still a few imported cars. but there's not very many. they are made in north america. a few of them are assembled up in mexico.
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they have a lot of component parts from all three countries. that is because the three they became incredibly competitive globally. and largely saved the auto industry in north america. when we talk about trade with mexico. when we talk about nafta we talk about it as though it's trade and it is trade. there's a lot of trade. that is a real trade. we do make things and send it to the other country. but much of what we do in mexico and canada is not actually trade in the strict sense. they're not things were just selling to the other side. but the actually things actually things that are
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moving within companies that are making a single product that we will sell together at the end. we talk about trying to save the american industry it's impossible without thinking about mexican industry and canadian industry. all three have become deeply integrated. now there's things we can do to improve nafta. but ultimately it's impossible to think about taking apart the integration that we head among the three countries without doing damage to ourselves. right now we just imposed steel tariffs on mexico. they import more sealed to us than the export from us. it's a huge danger.
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just looking on the face of this. i think it's a huge danger he may actually be undoing our own nail industry in the process. and mexico puts tariffs on cars coming from the united states we begin to add to the cost of making a car in north america what we do is ultimately shifted shift production outside of north america. it turns out we make more than just industrial goods together. technology. as for the rude but it's fun to write. is an incredible amount of innovation going on. in the printed magazine. that i wrote talking about the
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new silicon valley. and it's really becoming that. they are invested in technological innovation. has come quite far. the technology industry that is very tied to the u.s. and it was simply about producing chips back in the 70s and 80s and eventually moved into some research and development itself. in its most recent round has started to develop its own set of startup companies. i tracked some of those in the books actually. but also ideas flowing back and forth on how to start companies and you begin to have the first generation of truly we also do a lot of
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sports together. not only the world cup which is the world's game but the nfl. has anyone watch the nfl games in mexico. they had played regular-season games. they are committed to do for four more years. the nba also played four games last year and they're committed to do that. major league major league baseball. last year in may. the dodgers and the padres. and it is committed to continue to do this as well. a lot of connection with sports. and this is about appealing to a big market next-door. part of it is about appealing to a million to two mexicans and the fans in the united states.
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we also do since were in the los angeles. we also do film together. for the last winters -- winners. that's really unusual given how truly global hollywood is. it's actually three people have one at four times. they grew up together. they came into global cinema together. and then there is some story about them individually. and certainly they have trailblazer for mexicans and hollywood but it turns out there only they're not the only once. you don't get more global than
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gravity. or the shape of water. these are stories that had universal appeal even though they're made by mexican filmmakers. they're not the only once. they just did the last season of darkness. have you ever seen it. or has produced two movies. or if you have seen the cameramen. who has also won an oscar. they made movies like skype -- spike in. the star trek discovery.
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there is a lot of writers and editors. and other people in hollywood who started their career in mexico. between the film industry and mexico. those are all set up filmmakers do both. they actually work in hollywood a lot but also work in mexico a lot. they come back and forth across the border. is not just cars and nails. all of these stories have been about things outside the government. and that's not an accident. my sense is that most of the creativity in this relationship is happening now in washington dc where i live
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or mexico city. it's happening in other places like los angeles. it's happening by people who are not necessarily tied to the government. it doesn't mean the government is ever created. in fact there is a great deal that goes on between the national governments in mexico and the united states it's incredibly creative. there's a lot going on at the state and local level. between mexico and the united states. it is a personal story for me because i lived there for almost six years in the 1990s. i went back and forth frequently. it was hard to believe that these were similar in sized cities close to each other. because they were so distant and some new ways.
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it was a rough-and-tumble city. piecework low value added manufacturing. san diego was a beautiful but isolated beach town. i was hard to imagine that they would ever get together. something started to happen in the early 2000 began to evolve. its own research and department operations. you saw the growth of some state capacity. and the cultural scene coming out of there. has anyone gone to tijuana not to tijuana for lunch or dinner. they have some of the best food scenes anywhere in mexico. anywhere on the west coast as well. great success this to goes
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from electronic to classical music and opera. i say this in my peril. i know it was a little bit of competition here. san diego was once the quiet little town. a nice place to go visit. san diego has really become an innovation powerhouse. but also in terms of sound equipment. it actually has some areas where it is a leading city in the united states. somewhere along the way they began to notice each other. there were a few people who realize this before others. it wasn't until recently that leaders begin really to notice the potential. that was the question of the airport. if you have flown into cynical airport it's a scary
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experience. thankfully pilots were wonderful. they do a great job landing. but the san diego airport is right downtown. it's been a very long time. there is no way to expand the san diego airport. it's right in the middle of a lot of things. i began to think of itself as a town of innovation. .. .. when i lived there there were several options where you could move the airport and none of them seem to work, couldn't
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move them downtown, couldn't move the marines, can't move the bay very easily as well. we are running out of options until they started to realize the best option was not to build another airport in san diego but to join forces with tijuana which has a large airport and already had flights to asia and the tijuana airport is right on the border, next to the border. instead of building another airport in san diego you build a bridge over the border to the tijuana airport and that is what they did. there is a little rusted border fence where some of the fencing on the border started so down below the rusty border fence and a beautiful bridge that connects san diego to the tijuana airport, you check on the side, english or spanish, check-in on the us side, go through immigration and customs and go to your gate almost as though you're in the united states and then do the exact
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opposite. works incredibly well and also has become a symbol of what the city's can do together. they started to realize they could use the same airport and start thinking about other things they could do in terms of economic planning. i didn't interview with the mayor of san diego who said we don't talk about two cities but one region. it is something i found echoed repeatedly when i went back several times as i was looking at the book, people talk about one metro region. we need to think in terms of that, it turns out the same top 3 industries in tijuana and san diego do some of the same functions but also some complementary functions on both sides. though increasingly you see city leaders meeting to plan things together. right now they are trying to figure out how to develop a piece of real estate on both
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sides of the border by one of the border crossings and a joint national project to figure out what to do and one side is not as effective as both sides. two cities as far apart as you could believe 20 years ago when i lived there have become the largest binational metropolitan area in the world. this is rather striking. but it turns out it is not just mayors who are pragmatic. we expect federal governments to be less pragmatic. it turns out even on the federal side there's a lot going on between the two countries that is surprising at a time where national politicians say angry things about each other and send sweets about each other, maybe more one side than the other, there's a lot going on even in security cooperation. we have a problem in organized crime between hunger for
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illicit drugs and organized crime. i say disorganized crime problem rather than a drug problem. it is both but it is manifested as a drug problem, violence and organized crime and both in both places but there is incredible cooperation that goes on between law enforcement intelligence communities, the military and ngos. even at the border, we see a lot of tweets how out of control the border is even though we have seen the lowest numbers of illegal border crossings in the last 40 some years, 1971 was the lowest number of illegal border crossings but there are issues at the border. even at the border the tendency has been for two governments to work together to figure out how to make the border more secure and more efficient. one of the things that are two things that have been tried, unified cargo boxes where they
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pioneered this, doing something similar in a couple other places including tijuana where they have us and mexican inspectors standing next which other and a single process you come in, you have a truck ahead your papers to inspectors, they check in and share intelligence if they know something about the truck that is coming through that could be damaging. the idea is you actually instead of separating out you get mexicans and americans standing next to each other, working together, much more likely to catch a problem and likely to be efficient more than going through two processes in sequence but also turned out to be a lot more secure and the tendency on the border as much as we hear the political rhetoric and people talking about that is to try to get mexican and us inspectors standing next to each other in the same physical facility in the everything is pre-inspection where we have american immigration customs agents inside mexico and
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mexican customs agents in the united states inspecting trucks that are coming through. we do the same with canada regularly. you have gone through immigration with immigration agents before you get on a plane. and in the united states you are home free. then take whatever you have, make it more efficient but also doing this for trucks which is a huge piece of the traffic through their means instead of a bottleneck at the border you get this done particularly before people get to the border and send them on a specific clean so they can't wander off and they get through or in laredo texas airport, that happens with the texas airport. even at a time of deep political divisions within government especially local and state levels but even at the national level there is a lot
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of creativity that would be supplied and i talk to people in the trump administration about be surprised, you would assume the tendency is think that mexico is the enemy but that is not true. anyone who has to solve a problem discovers how deep the ties are and how much self-interest is to work together on these issues including energy. to wrap this up and bring it together let me say i don't think politics is irrelevant and it will make for a rocky relationship in the next few years and politicians are playing to a piece of the country that is skeptical about mexico and politicians in mexico will play to a part of the mexican population that is skeptical about further engagement with the united states. sometimes it has to do with mexico but i tell my friends and colleagues not everything we say is about that. sometimes when we say mexico we
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are talking about ourselves, talking about our own struggles. sometimes we are talking about our own fears about globalization. sometimes we are talking about fears of a legitimate about how work is changing and our fears of competition and we shouldn't discount these fears, some have a legitimate basis and some don't but nonetheless they are real fears and how politicians use them is a different question but sometimes when we say mexico, we want to build a wall on the border with mexico we are not trying to keep mexicans out, we are 20 the world out and that is a conversation about ourselves more than mexico. a conversation about how we look at the world and i say to my friends and colleagues in mexico sometimes we are talking about you. don't think it is not at all about you. there are issues we have to deal with. americans have concerns about
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trading relationships and there is a net benefit for jobs, immigration with mexico. people have different experiences. the fact that on net average mexico has been good for american jobs we don't live in that average so people have different experiences. but overall we will in the long term continue to have a good relationship with mexico and most americans in public opinion polls specifically younger americans have a very good opinion of mexico and mexicans have a strong opinion of the united states, dropping a bit at the moment but for the most part, we will continue to work with mexico because it is in our self-interest and we will continue to draw closer. in the end you have to measure the future by whether the latest that between politicians is where we are headed for the world cup where we join together is where we are headed. i would choose the world cup.
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i would also choose the innovation connections that are going on, the football, baseball and basketball connections which i would choose the film connections, the manufacturing connections. i choose the problem-solving connections at the border because this is the future of our relationship with mexico that overtime will continue to grow more interconnected and over time we will begin to understand each other. it is going to be hard and it will take time but we will understand these interconnections and embrace our differences. thank you. [applause] >> thank you. this is the part of the evening we take questions from all of you. there are two of us going around with microphones, please raise your hand and we will come to you. this will be recorded and published tomorrow morning. your first and last name before
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asking your question. >> my name is victor. so so far, a very compelling view, and optimistic take on relationships between the countries but i am curious to know what is your response or what would be your solution to the ongoing security crisis in mexico that is coming and going, surely you know that last year was one of the most -- and that phenomenal impact, that perception of mexico, what would be your solution to organized crime? >> i wish i had the answer to
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that. the two most pessimistic chapters in the books are the chapters about security cooperation and they are not pessimistic because there are not good things going on. after interviewing people in law enforcement, the military, intelligence, ngos working on this issue the amount of cooperation is incredible and the trust that has been built on both sides, inside and outside government, those pressuring for change has been quite incredible. there has been real lack of leadership and we have wandered away from paying attention to this and one thing that has happened is we lost direction in figuring out what to do with organized crime. and attempt to actually address it, both countries have not placed it as high priority and the second thing is apps and fentanyl and others synthetic opioids which really shook up the drug markets. drug markets are generally not violent. there is always some violence,
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you have to enforce contracts. there is always a little bit of violence, usually the threat of violence rather than actual violence, you have real violence when things are shaken up, some incentive for violence to happen and part of what we saw in the past few years, markets were shaken up, apps was a marginal drug for most of the organized crime groups and now it is becoming a central part of their business and that is really shaken up how they operate in mexico and to some extent in the us. there are several things, there is no magic bullet on this. one is in mexico, a huge need for investing in prosecutors and defense, writing and creating a system for rule of law that functions. there has been some success on this was one thing i say in the book is there are some cities that are much better off than they once were, not that they are perfect but you could walk around tijuana at night in a way you would not have done
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before because violence, there was a time homicides were accompanied by kidnappings, extortion, violence was public and in street scene outside schools, tends to happen among people in the business, not exclusively but much more so and that is because for the first time there is some fear of the police and court system but more than it was ten years ago. the murder capital of the world, same thing is true today. guerrero the things of gotten worse, there are parts of mexico were things have legitimately gotten worse and is a drifting institution building. there is a lot more pressure needed and a lot the us can do to help. the flipside is ultimately all of this is driven by consumption in the united states and there's a huge need to look seriously, we keep
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talking about dealing with the opioid addiction crisis but we haven't done much yet on it. there is a real need to raise this to a much higher level, a need to deal with the money that flows back into mexico for american consumers, these are issues we have been reluctant to touch the a lot of cooperation going on, really good story in some ways and yet a lot of things that are most important are not happening. >> next question on the right. >> jonathan boxer. my question is you have spoken positively about relationships between mexico and the united states, going back to ross perot and the great sucking sound to the current administration speaking negatively about the mexican relationship, where are the institutions that will publicize the positive aspects you are talking about? where the auto companies, auto parts moving back and forth, where are the academics, the government people who can
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highlight the positive things you said to impact public opinion? >> we don't know as much as we should but we don't know nothing either. we do, there is a conversation about mexico's connected this to us. one reason we have not withdrawn from nafta, this was a campaign issue of the president of the united states to withdraw from nafta, we can close to doing so at the end of his hundred days, it is not happened, in large part because there has been enormous pressure first from the agricultural industry who would be hard-hit from this and the auto companies and from the states that would be directly affected including a lot of states that voted for donald trump. so this is part of his base that is very sensitive to withdrawing from nafta, opened the idea of renegotiating nafta but not withdrawing. there is a huge x factor, we don't know in the end with the president will decide on nafta and how negotiations will go but so far the reason we
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haven't withdrawn is there is a fair amount of pressure going on. could we do more? yes. the reality is most americans have looked at some poles during the book, over the last 4 or 5 years increasing positive attitudes toward mexico. the majority of americans have a pragmatic engagement with mexico and it comes through food, film, their jobs, vacationing in mexico or knowing mexican neighbors. we have engagements with mexico that made us more positive over time but we need to tell the stories that are in need to raise this a level higher than it has been in the past and if we don't do it we may do some things that do damage to ourselves or hurt the mexicans that will hurt us as americans as well. >> next question on the left. >> my name is that watergun dollars, thank you for coming to the talk, it has been
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informative. a student of immigration, scholar of immigration, i can't help but notice good and informative ideas about the movement of goods and capital but what seems to have been left out is the question of migration and immigrants and where they plays into a story we know too alleges bifurcation of globalization. as we learn about and listen to stories about innovation and movement of capital and fluidity across borders we must also recognize the rigidity we see the united states border and mexico impede the flow of people, this can be said about workers and higher skilled opportunities and my question is as you paint this optimistic
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picture of the future of binational relations improving where is the role of migration coming into the picture with the united states cracking down on immigration at the united states mexico border and also southern border of mexico with guatemala where we see the united states border patrol, customs border protection helping stem central american migrants in the south, the policy never seems to go away. >> yes and no. we have very robust immigration from mexico. in the past few years we have very limited unauthorized immigration these days from mexico. since 2007 probably net outflow of the population towards mexico, we have robust legal immigration from mexico these days. high school those cold family although mexicans are now behind indians and chinese immigrants in terms of overall flows but nonetheless a quarter of all immigrants in the united
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states are from mexico. i worry that the tenor has changed at the top, it is less about the current flow of mexicans potential americans that the population living in this country and what we were talking about, unauthorized immigrants to the 15 years ago we were talking about people who for the most part had come relatively recently, today a majority of people who are unauthorized immigrants have lived in the us for more than 10 or 15 years, people with deep roots in american society with families in american society and that is a huge pending issue and it is a huge pending issue what we do with the immigration system. we have an incredible regime, one of the more generous family integration systems in the world, one of the least generous employment-based immigration systems in the world. one thing we need to look at is how to deal with employment-based immigration at all levels from low skilled the
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high skilled and middle skills. we forget the middle skills, middle skilled immigrants are an important category. we can't even start to have that conversation until we recognize that unless you are 100% native american all of us came, willingly or not, part of our history was forced migration as well but all of us came from somewhere else or we came from somewhere else and until we get back to that conversation where reasonable people can disagree on the policy but we all agree immigration is part of who we are it will be hard to have a serious conversation. central america, mexico, increasingly trying to control its borders. i'm not sure that is necessarily bad. it is a question of how you do it. the question is do you create real channels for people with legitimate fear of persecution and does that go beyond the refugee standard? there is really strict, we tend to fall really strict persecution standard that got stricter in the past week, the past couple days.
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a lot of people might not meet that standard but are fleeing from real violence, they have real fear of returning even if it is not individual persecution and what many countries have done, mexico is a little better on this but still not much further is expand the definition of who is considered a refugee. that is something we need to talk about. we need some border control, we can't let everyone in but there's a question of how we expand but we can't have these conversations seriously until we get back to a rational conversation and we are not there yet. >> next question on the right. >> why the relationship is changing, the hamilton story again, ultimately because one 10th of americans have mexican heritage, it is growing over time and it is growing not because of immigration, there's a lot of mexican tv and legal routes both ways but it will change also, because of marriage and we within the same
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neighborhoods. this is a piece of the story of why we are coming together. all the things happening, that may be the strongest part. >> if you didn't get a chance to ask a question we will immediately afterwards, thanks a lot, second to last question here. >> brilliant book, fantastic. i have to quibble. >> please quibble. >> cities experiencing rapid demographic change, played them by offering the border, the wall, the metaphor, we have to be careful because the trump paradox is 98% of the counties that voted for trump have never met mexicans and don't import competition from them.
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something deep is going on here. i want to ask you to respond in the form of what do we tell men incoming president of mexico on how to deal with donald trump? how do we specifically try to talk to the vast majority of this population that has a racialized metaphor that has been instituted? that we need to reach out to them? is it going to the congressional districts that we know are going to get hurt because that is a lot more of the population will get hurt in the future then has ever experienced relationships with mexico to this point? >> at ucla a study showed the county did a county level, counties that voted for donald trump tended to have less experience with trade with mexico in the 16th with immigration. there is evidence the rate of increase in immigration nearby,
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not always in particular cities have a huge effect on people's reaction so it is an outlier in some ways but often it is rapid change even if it is 0 to 5% or 01010%, it may not be in your city, maybe the city next-door but often that is the trigger so we can argue about that later. on the other question, one thing i would tell a new mexican president is don't upset about donald trump. i would probably say that about whoever the president is but at this time even more. don't think this is a relationship about two pres.s. this is a broader relationship and engage as a broader relationship so make sure you engage at the cabinet level, the subcabinet level, engage with governors and mayors and civil society and the business community. the more you make of this you
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acknowledge and recognize how complex a relationship this is and engage the largest number of actors. the more firm the relationship will be and more constrained the federal government will be on the other side. and frankly if i were to give advice to a us president, not saying this president has sought my advice but in general i would say the same holds true in the inverse at least in normal times, which is us politicians are advised also to think of this is a complex relationship and president to president, we will fix things, that probably is not going to happen now. >> last question on the left? >> my name is stephen. you discuss nafta at this point. at the g7 summit in québec the right hon. justin trudeau
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discussed the nafta deal. in the presentation the economy is increased exponentially for the last decade or so because of nafta but the current administration is arguing not to say withdraw but renegotiate nafta with the sunset clause. let's look at the political context, the minister of international trade of canada and minister of trade of mexico come together and talk with the cabinet secretary in the united states so what if, if there is a sunset clause that is in -- negotiating with nafta, do you think of mexico and the us could benefit from a sunset clause and if not, if so, what are the consequences they are going to face, mexico and canada and also the united
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states? >> there's a reason we don't put sunset causes in trade agreements in normal times. it undermines what they are trying to do which is create certainty. this is particularly true in the case of north america where you have decisions being made whether it is a nail plant or auto plant for the long-term, people are thinking in terms of 10, 20, 30, 40 years in terms of the investment and if they don't know 5 years from now if there could be tariffs, we are likely to see much less investment and other parts of the world look more attractive. this undermines us if we go this way. my guess is they won't agree on that. it is something canada and mexico have drawn a red line on. then again i have made lots of certain statements in the past couple years, said things with great certainty and been completely and totally wrong. we do not live in usual times where things are predictable, you can decide whether that is
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good or bad. but my sense is in normal terms that would be normal times i cannot see canada or mexico agreeing to that nor what i see us negotiators one thing that because it is not in the interest of us industry or us investment because it goes against the stability factor. >> before we close i would like to thank c-span for being here tonight, they recorded tonight's future for future broadcasts and i would like to thank you for joining us tonight, please take around for the reception. we have skylight books, selling copies of the new book, "vanishing frontiers: the forces driving mexico and the united states together". is a big round of applause. [inaudible conversations]
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>> booktv once to know what you're reading. that is your summer reading list that booktv on twitter, instagram or facebook. booktv on c-span2, television for serious readers. >> and now it is booktv's monthly in depth program with novelist brad thor. his books include "the lions of lucerne," the last patriot and most recently "spy master". >> host: over the course of 18 books how many people has scot harvath killed? >> i lost count. he has killed a lot. >> host: why? >> guest: my children's godfather is a former special forces group person, he works for the state department and he

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