>> with 15 days till election day, we will have more live campaign coverage today. tonight at 7:30, president trump speaks at a rally in houston for texas senator cruz and his reelection bid. live coverage on c-span. your primary source for campaign 2018. here on c-span 2, republican congressman whitman faces the democrat, live debate coverage from frederick starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern. >> we're glad to welcome back charlie cook to the program. publisher of the cook political report with us for the next hour to discuss the midterm races that you are most interested in and i want to start with the battle of the control for the senate.

you wrote a column in the national journal this week. this is what you said. one question that keeps coming back up is whether those who led the out of control demonstrations on capitol hill against the kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to democrats and the party's chances of winning majority in the senate. my guess is they don't. explain. >> you know, i think if you just looked at the testimony dr. ford did a -- it was compelling. it was convincing. it was so good. but it was the demonstrations -- i've lived in washington for 46 years, been around capitol hill working on or around for 45 years, i had never seen those kinds of -- that kind of behavior in the halls of the capitol and senate office buildings. and i think they effectively diminished the effectiveness of her testimony and out in heartland america, you know, we have seen an incredible reaction

in the senate races where now, you know, going in, democrats probably had a 30, 35 percent chance of getting a majority in the senate. now it's probably about 5%. there you go. >> usually this time of year when we start looking for the october surprise in elections, was the kavanaugh confirmation and what we saw surrounding that the october surprise? >> well, the reason i don't like the term october surprise is that it's -- it sort of suggests that one party is going to, you know, sabotage an election or something. i mean the thing is, our elections are competitive, and in the last 60 days, events don't stop. there are things that affect. but, you know, in the house, and i would get to that, but in the house, i don't think the republican chances of holding on to the house have gone up much. but their chances of getting blown out are way way down. conversely in the senate, republican chances of holding on

to the senate were already good and now they're fantastically high. >> let's put some numbers to that in the house. what's the prediction today and what was it a month ago? >> right. democrats needed 23 seat net gain to get a majority in the house. if i were sitting here two months ago, i would have said it would likely be somewhere between 25 and 45 but i would have put a little caveat on that. i would have said but you know what? if i'm wrong, if it's not between 25 and 45, it would be more likely to be north of 45 than south of 25. so sort of that it would not be symmetric. it would not be a pure bell curve. today i think it's more 20 to 40, which isn't that big of a change. but i just leave out the chance of it going -- where i think the ceiling for democratic gains has been lowered and hardened, and

so while i still think republicans will lose the maj majori majority, it is not going to be a really ugly loss. >> run the numbers for us in the senate right now as you see it. >> in the senate a couple months ago i would have said that we could see a billion dollars spent in the u.s. senate this election cycle with, you know, one of the most plausible outcomes would be no net change whatsoever. in there was a change, maybe, you know, maybe republicans would pick up a seat and go to 52 or maybe they lose a seat and it goes to 50/50 with vice president pence breaking the tie, but one seat one way or the other or dead even would have been the most likely scenario. right now i think breaking even for democrats would be about as good as they could get. and we're looking at republicans pick up one, pick up two, you know, it's sort of gone over two clicks that way. it has to do with what seats are up. >> we can talk about the individual seats that are up

with charlie cook with us until 10:00 this morning until our program ends. phone lines. republican 202-748-8001. democrats 202-748-8,000. independents 202-748-8002. tell us what states you are most interested in. as folks are calling in, an article today in new york times who is winning the social media midterms? noting that in most house races democrats have more facebook interactions than their opponents. we have seen articles this week about voter enthusiasm, polls that are out. what numbers should we be looking at? what are the most telling numbers right now in your mind to get a sense of what happens in 17 days? >> well, i'm about a month short of 65 years old. so i'm probably not the person to ask about the impact of social media. but, you know, i would say whichever party is out of power has the most challengers, the most younger candidates is more

likely to outdo on social media, and right now that's democrats. so my guess is that's true. we're looking at -- we're looking at polling. we're looking at election results since november of 2016. we look at midterm election patterns. and it all points to a very challenging year for republicans, except in the senate. and this is the most lopsided map in either direction for the senate we've ever seen. you know, the way i would look at it is it's like we have elections in two different countries. and one country is red republican america where the u.s. senate is being fought, where of the 17 senate races, where there's any doubt at all about the outcome, 14 out of 17 went for donald trump. and then there's an election for everything else, house, governor, state legislature and that's looking a lot tougher for republicans. >> one ad i want to show our

viewers from senate majority pac, the political action committee supporting democrat candidates in the senate. an ad in new jersey targeting the republican running against bob menendez. >> donald trump and bob hugan have a lot in common. hugan backed trump's plan that gives billions to drug companies and trump's plans to gut protections for preexisting conditions. he raised prices for life saving cancer drugs and paid himself more than 150 million dollars at the expense of cancer patients and taxpayers. hugan and trump, the wrong prescription for new jersey. smp is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> with so many battlefields and red states, why are democrats spending money and time running ads in the blue state of new jersey? >> first of all, you could be very sure that democrats are not happy about having to do this. new jersey is a state that president obama carried by 18 points, hilary clinton carried

by 14 points. occasionally new jersey will elect a republican governor. i think just to keep the legislature honest. but for federal elections, it rarely goes statewide for a republican. but when you've got a democratic incumbent who had been indicted for bribery charges and yes, it was a hung jury, but that doesn't mean declared innocent by a jury of your peers, it just means the prosecutors couldn't get a unanimous verdict against you. i still think that menendez will probably win by a few points. but is this closer than it ought to be and is it causing some angst among democrats? absolutely. and having an opponent who can drop 24, 25 million dollars, personal -- >> is that what he's spent so far? >> so far, yeah. >> with 17 days to go? >> yeah. and that's after tax. [laughter] >> let you chat with some callers. raymond is in southfield michigan, a democrat. good morning. >> yes, how are you this

morning? >> doing well, go ahead. >> caller: first of all, i would like to say this -- [inaudible] -- she did a great job as far as her denouncing kavanaugh. that being said, he lied. >> what does it mean in michigan for you, the kavanaugh confirmation? what are you seeing in michigan and what do you think it will mean in 17 days? >> right now we -- my friends are -- [inaudible].

one thing in michigan, the ballot, used to be able to say -- [inaudible]. now they changed it it's complex have to go to -- [inaudible]. i'm sorry. >> that's all right. i think we got your point. >> i was in dearborn and ann arbor last weekend. i'm not here to litigate the kavanaugh nomination. i have never met him. and i have never met any of the women that were accusing him. you know, i don't know what happened. everybody else i know is positive they know what happened. but i don't. i'm just here to judge the political impact of it. and i think it had -- it was

what i call an enhancement event, where it made reds redder and blues bluer but i don't think it changed a lot of minds. it just intensified -- intensified emotions out there. but i am not here to litigate who was right or wrong. that's not my field and that's not something i will talk about. >> what are you watching in michigan? >> michigan we're watching actually the governor's race is very very close. it looks like there is a better than even chance that republicans lose the governorship. you know, michigan, that's kind of a -- that's a big deal. and you know, i don't think michigan -- well, if republicans are having a bad night, they could lose the michigan house of representatives. you know, one of the things here in washington, we tend to get fixated on congress and the house and senate. but to me, the most -- the unwritten story of this election is the state elections, that washington in the last 20, 30

years has been increasingly unable, unwilling to deal with a lot of problems facing the country. it's created a vacuum. a lot of state legislatures and governors have picked up -- have become more aggressive and taken on more power and republicans scored huge gains during the obama years. net gain of six governorships and over 700 state legislative seats in 2010 and two more governorships and over 300 state legislature seat. republicans have more elected offices today than any time since the 1920s. all that is up. there are a lot of open seats. and this is going to put aside the house and senate, this is going to be a big-time election. >> michigan's governor's seat currently open, rated as leaning democratic right now by the cook political report. you can see all their ratings in the house, senate, and governor races. cook political.com. click on that little tab ratings

right there to scroll through them. plenty to search through as we hear from jess in wichita, kansas. a republican. good morning. >> good morning, john. good morning, charlie, big fan. charlie, i had like to have your view on how this year's kansas elections are going to go? i'm particularly looking at kansas 4 with estes against thompson and any other races you care to comment on. sure appreciate that. thank you. >> sure, i was just in wichita earlier this year. >> you travel quite a bit. >> i do. i do. it's -- the governor's race is -- you know, normally republicans have no problems, and we're seeing in places like kansas and places like oklahoma, closer gubernatorial races than you would expect. and i think some of it is you

had in some of the reddest republican states taxes cut a lot and spending cut a lot and education becoming a big issue, and teachers demonstrations and all of that, and there's been something of a backlash there. so we've got -- the kansas governor's race is very close. secretary of state is, you know, maybe a couple points ahead, but it is closer than it ought to be. you were saying -- >> 4? >> 4 is solid republican. the two races that we're watching most closely, there's the open seat, the jenkins open seat in kansas's second district and then kevin yoder, republican incumbent in the third district. and that one we actually have rated as leaning democrat. back in the old days, we didn't -- we used to have a policy at the cook political report of not putting unindicted

incumbents worse than toss up just because they have a way of coming back. but these elections have gotten sort of more parliamentary. midterms have gotten more explosive. so we have got that leaning away from him which we didn't used to do until the last six or eight years. that's tough. there are six, eight, ten republican seats that they look pretty likely to tip over the side. and that's, you know, kansas, that's quite something. >> we talked about new jersey a bit already. edison, new jersey, independent, good morning. >> caller: good morning. good morning, mr. cook. >> hi. >> caller: i have two questions, comments. the first one when you mentioned earlier about the kavanaugh protests and how you say it might have turned off the heart land. how is that kind of fair because during obama care protests, those voters came out to protest

obama care, spitting on congressmen, that didn't affect the heart land but when the left tried to protest the kavanaugh vote -- >> i have been on capitol hill for 45 years, around capitol hill, there were some tough antiobama care behavior on capitol hill. i don't think it was this bad. you know, all i can say is i was there, and i didn't -- i thought this was more -- and the thing is that these people that were protesting -- i mean, i know they are passionate. they felt strongly about it, but they really hurt their cause. and if i were dr. ford, i think i'd be pretty ticked off that, you know, what she did was undermined by people out in the hall and in the hallways who were not acting the way you really ought to act in the capitol building and in the senate office buildings of the u.s. senate. >> raymond in silver spring, maryland, democrat, good

morning. >> caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i just want to ask mr. cook, what his opinion is about the democratic messaging. it seems to me that they do a terrible job at messaging. i will give you three examples. on immigration, you hear the republicans say democrats are for open borders. the truth is obama deported more illegal aliens than the previous several presidents combined. democrats don't say that. you know, they always play defense. on the economy, the economy was already doing well and trending up when obama left, compared what he inherited. on healthcare, the democrats -- i mean, sorry republicans came in in 2010, promising a replacement to obama care. they never offered any replacement. and democrats don't -- >> we got your point, on

messaging. >> let me -- i was listening to a cable show yesterday morning. i watch very little cable, but there were people complaining about well, the democratic messaging, and i thought they were absolutely totally completely wrong. but take immigration, for example, yes, the obama administration deported a whole lot of people and more people have been deported so far. is that really a message that democrats want to do when they can't get latinos out to vote this year, when they are having a really hard time? is that really a message that democrats want to do? no, i don't think so. i don't think that's what democrats ought to be talking about. the fact is that lots of times the economy gets going, something happens in one administration, and it works to the benefit of the other. you know, president clinton was the beneficiary of president george h. w. bush effectively sacrificing his presidency by

raising taxes which cut deficits enormously. clinton was the beneficiary. it sort of works that way. the thing about it is midterm elections are referendum on incumbent presidents, that's always true. but when you have a very polarizing president, where three quarters of americans either love him or hate him, three quarters, this is -- you know, the democratic message is very very simple. checks and balances. the system is based on checks and balances. democrats are arguing that republicans in congress have not been a check on president trump and that a democratic congress would. that's their message. you've got the healthcare. the thing is it is preexisting conditio conditions. if you are a democrat talk about single payer. you're looking at swing voters. that's what's important.

i mean i understand the caller's position, but these two parties, they spend a lot of money on polling and focus groups and, you know, occasionally they are wrong on messaging, but they are more often closer to right than wrong. >> let's talk about republican messaging especially a message that we have heard in past cycles, the message nancy pelosi, this is an nrcc ad tying, new york democrat anthony delgado to nancy pelosi. new york's 19th district. >> paying too much in taxes? antonio delgado will make you pay more. he pledged to join nancy pelosi in raising taxes, costing up state families 2700 a year. worse? delgado supports pelosi's radical government takeover of healthcare. to pay for it? they would have to double income taxes on every single person in america. just like cuomo and pelosi, antonio delgado is another big city liberal we can't afford. the nrcc is responsible for the

content of this ad >> pelosi in ads? >> yeah, for eight years, republicans were able to use president obama and hilary clinton as a foil to talk about, and did it very effectively for some years. they are out of the picture. nancy pelosi is what's left. it is kind of a distant third, but, you know, some places it may make a difference. but, you know, if you were going to ask me for better or worse is this election more likely to be about donald trump or nancy pelosi? it's a lot more likely to be about donald trump than nancy pelosi. but it's, you know, in some districts, it's -- it works. but for republicans, i think they've got two different messages for two different groups of people. for the hard core trump base, tea party, conservative white evangelical christians, the

message would be if democrats take over, they want to impeach. they want to remove our president from office. and it's -- that's the central message. for the republicans that aren't that crazy about president trump, overall they kind of like generally speaking what's going on, they may not like his behavior on everything, the messaging is do you like where the economy is? do you like 4.2% gdp growth? do you like where unemployment at 3.7, the best it's been since 1969? do you like looser regulations? if democrats take over, they're going to reverse all of that. and so with that part of the party, it's a messaging that's not oriented towards president trump. with the first part of the party, it is oriented towards president trump. >> that's the difference between a west virginia senate race and barbara comstock's house seat in suburban washington, d.c. >> right, and gosh i don't want to -- i'm sick of talking about

the kavanaugh fight, but the thing is, the kavanaugh fight in suburban, classic suburban swing districts, it didn't make a whole lot of difference. it was out in small town, rural america, working class white males, that's where it backlashed, but we're looking at some fascinating numbers. i mean the gender gap has been around since president reagan's first term. but we're typically seeing among men, republicans are running 3 to 5 points ahead and among women, democrats are running anywhere from 15 to 25 points ahead. just a massive gender gap, and it's suburban women, college educated women that republicans getting buried in these suburban districts. that's where the big fight in the house is, not the senate, but the house. that's where it is. >> huntersville, north carolina,

democrat, good morning. >> caller: good morning. i just want to say that democrats are tired of losing. you know, we have -- i mean, we have nothing. the republicans have used every -- everything to cheat. they're cheaters. and democrats are tired of being cheated. they've used gerrymandering, sure. democrats might have done some gerrymandering years ago, but the republicans took it and made it nuclear. they have all the governorships, and now we have this slime in the white house. democrats are tired of losing. >> you know, if i were a democrat in north carolina, i would -- i understand how she feels. in north carolina, you know, i'm being nonpartisan here, but

let's just say republicans were particularly aggressive and effective in pursuing their agenda. now, it is not true that -- i mean i live in maryland where there is a very strong democratic gerrymandering, if you lived in illinois, it's very strong. these midterm elections are huge. not presidential years. it's midterm years three quarters of governorships are up. four fifths of the state legislative seats are up. the last midterm before redistricting is particularly huge in importance and when democrats got buried in 2010, the last midterm before the 2011 redistricting, it was catastrophic. i mean, when you lose badly the last midterm before a redistricting, that is the defeat that keeps on defeating for a decade. that's why republicans need to be really really nervous is the shoe may be on the wrong foot. and you know, we're seeing --

but -- anyway -- >> give you a good chance to talk about a guy whose twitter handle is redistrict, dave wasserman. >> i saw one of your previous guests was from the university of virginia. david wasserman is our house editor and a uva grad and was one of larry sabato's students down there, and when i met him, and he's just fabulous. i mean, the guy's so so so bright. and you know, i used to know all the house races by heart. i knew the stuff pretty well. man, i didn't know it nearly as well as david does. he's terrific. >> we love the cook political report. >> we have a great team. >> we love your team so much. david wasserman will be joining us next week. >> good, good, good. >> charlie cook with us for about the next 25 minutes this morning. louisville, kentucky, republican, good morning. >> caller: good morning. and i just wanted to say that i'm a great admirer of mr. cook.

i've been -- i'm 51. i've been watching him since my 20s. and his analysis has always been very fair and very spot on. >> go ahead, make me feel old. [laughter] >> caller: if the republicans do hold the house of representatives, do you think it will be because the basic nature of the districts that are voting on will have a republican lean to them and that there will be like almost a hidden republican vote that comes out that's not being reflected in the pollsters, and then i would like to ask specifically about the lexington race in kentucky. thank you very much. >> okay. let me do polling districts and then get to andy barr. polling, the national polls really weren't that far off to

be honest. the average was clinton up by 3 points, real clear politics average. won the popular vote which is what national polls measure by 2.1 percentage points. 9/10 of a point is pretty close. the national polls were off slightly more in 2012 going the other direction where they had the race between obama and romney closer than the 3 points it ended up being. but the national polls, these national polls you see from the major networks, they are fairly pretty expensive, fairly sophisticated polls. they are not off by much. where there was an epic poll failure and where people need to be more careful is looking at the state level, the local and state level polling because a lot of that -- some of it is good but some of it this is a technical political science term i mean it is just garbage stuff that's out there. you know, you have to be careful. now, there is a wall -- i mean, the way i characterize this election it's like a blue

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