a rally at the collesium, ted budd and mark harris, live here on c-span2. with 11 days until the midterm elections c-span is your primary source for campaign 2018. >> with midterm election days away watch competition for the control of congress on c-span. see for yourself debates on key senate races. >> later today on c-span2 we will bring you a conversation with the representative to the united nations from the syrian opposition coalition. that'll be live from the hudson institute beginning at noon eastern here on c-span2.

>> welcome back charlie cook, discuss midterm race that is you're mostly interested in and i want to start with the battle, control for the senate, you wrote a column in the national journal this week, this is what you said, one question that keeps coming back up is whether those who let the outof control demonstrations against kavanaugh nomination understand how much damage they did to democrats, my guess is they don't, explain. >> i think if you just look at the testimony dr. ford did a -- it was compelling, it was good butg, it was so it was the demonstrations, i've lived in washington for 46 years, been around capitol hill working on or around for 45 years. i had never seen those kinds of -- that kind of behavior in the halls of the capitol and senate

office buildings and i think they -- they effectively diminished the effectiveness of her testimony and out in heartland america, you know, we have seen an incredible reaction in senate races where now, you know, going in, democrats probably had a 30, 35% chance of getting majority in the senate and now 5%, there you go. >> host: usually this time of year when we start look for october surprise, it was kavanaugh confirmation and what we sawse surrounding that the october surprise? >> guest: well, the reason i don't like the term october surprise is that it's -- it's sort of suggests that one party is going to -- is going to, you know, sabotage an election or something. i mean, the thing is that our elections are competitive and in the last 60 days events don't stop and there are things that affect, but, you know, in the house and i will get to that, but in the house i don't think

the republican chances of holding on to the house have gone up much but the chances of getting blown out are way, way down. conversely in the senate, republican chances of holding on to the senate were already good and now they are fantastically. >> host: what's the prediction today and what was it a month ago? >> guest: democrats needed 23 seat gain to get majority of the house, i would have said likely 25 and 45, but -- but i would have put a little caveat on that. i would have said, but you knowb what, if i'm'm wrong, if it's nt between 25 and 45, it would be more likely to be north of 45 than south of 25. today i think it's more 20 to 40 which isn't ha big of a -- i

just leave out the chance of it going high. where i think the ceiling for democratic gains has been loweredic and hardened and so while i still think republicans will lose the majority, it's not going to be a really ugly loss. >> host: so run the numbers for us in the senate as you see it? >> guest: well in the senate a couple of months ago i would have said that we could see a billion dollars spent in u.s. senate in this election cycle with, youd know, one of the -- o net change whatsoever. if there was a change maybe republicans would pick up a seat and go to 52 or maybe maybe they lose ae seat and goes to 50-50 with vice president pence breaking breaking the tie but one way or the other or dead even would have been the most likely scenario. right now breaking even for democrats would be about as good as they could get and we are looking at republicans pick up

one, pick up two. you know, it's sort of gone over two clicks that way. and it has to do with what seats are up. >> host: we can talk about the individual seats that are up can charlie cook with us until 10:00 o'clock this morning until program ends, phone lines as usual republicans 202-748-8001. democrats00 202-748-8000, independents 202-748-8002. happy to talk about states with you and charlie cook, as folks are calling in there's article, who is winning the social media of midterms, in most house races democrats have more facebook interactions than opponents. we have seen articles this week aboutho voter enthusiasm, polls that are out, what numbers should wevo be looking at, what are the most telling numbers right now in your mind to get a sense of what happens in 17 days? >> guest: well, i'm about a month short of 65 years old so

i'm probably not the person to ask about the impact of social media, but i will say whichever party is out of power has the mosto challengers, the most younger candidates is more likely to outdo on social media and right now it's democrats. my guess is that's true. we're looking at polling. we're looking at election results since november of 2016, we look at midterm election patterns and it all points to a very challenging year for republicans except in the senate and this is the most lop-sided map in either direction for the senate than we have ever seen. the way i would like at it, we have elections in two different countries, one country is red republican america where the u.s. senate is being hard, where of the 17 senate races where there's any doubt at all for

outcome, 14 out of 17 went for donald trump and election for everything else, house, governor state legislature and that's looking a lot tougher for republicans. >> host: this is senate majority pac, political action committee supporting democrat candidates in the senate. this is an ad in new jersey targeting the republican running against bob menendez. >> donald trump and bob hugin, they have a lot in common, trump's plan to gut protections for preexisting conditions, hugih aggressively raised prices for cancer drugs. hugin and trump, wrong prescription for new jersey. snp is responsible for content of. advertising. >> host: with so many battlefields in red states, why are democrats spending money and time running ads in the blue state of new jersey?

>> first of all, you could be very sure that democrats are not happy about having to do this, a state that president obama carried by 18 points, hillary clinton carried by 14 points. occasionally new jersey will elect a republican governor just to keep the legislature honest but for federal elections it rarely goes statewide for republican. but when you've got a democrat incufn antidepressant who had been indicted for bribery charges, yes, it was a hung jury but that doesn't mean declared innocent by jury of peers and means they. couldn't get unanimousus verdict. i still thinkt menendez win by a few points, is this closer than it ought to be or causing some angst among democrats, absolutely, having opponent who can a drop 24, $25 million personal in -- >> host: is that what he spent so far?

>> guest: so far. >> host: 17 days to go. >> guest: that's after tax. >> host: doing well, go ahead. call call i would like to say this, ford, she very good job as far as her -- forward to announce kavanaugh. that being said, kavanaugh, he's unhinged, he lied and include hillary into it. >> host: what does that mean in michigan for you the kavanaugh confirmation, what are you seeing in michigan and what do you think it'sin going to mean n 17 days?

>> caller: right now my friends -- [inaudible] >> caller: one thing in michigan, the ballot used to be able to say -- now they changed it where rare i will have to contacts to have to go through -- >> i am sorry. >> host: i think we've got your point. >> guest: i was in deer born and ann arbor last weekend. you know, i don't know what happened, everybody else i know is positive they know what

happen but i don't, i'm just here to judge the political impact of it. and i think it had -- it was what i call a color enhancement event where it made reds redder and blues bluer but i don't think it changed a lot of minds, it intensified, intensified emotions out there but i'm not here to litigate who -- who was right or wrong and that's not my field and that's not something i'm going to talk about. >> host: what are you watching in michigan? >> guest: in michigan we are watching actually the governor's race is very, very close and looks like there's a better than even chance that republicans lose the governorship and, you know, michigan that's kind a big deal and, you know, if -- i don't think michigan -- well, if republicans are having bad night they can lose the michigan house of representatives and, you know, one of the thing here in washington we tend to get

fixated on congress and the house and senate, but to me, the most -- the unwritten story of this election is the state elections. washington in the last 20, 30 years has been increasingly unable and willing to deal with a lotth of problems facing the country. it's created a vacuum and state legislators and governors have picked up, become more aggressive and taking on more power and republicans scored huge gains during the obama years, a net gain of 6 governorships in over 700 state legislative seats in 2010 and two more governorships in an 300-state legislature seat in 2014, so the republicans now have more elected offices today than any time since 1920's and all that's up and a lot of open seats and this is going to put aside the house and senate and this would be a big-time

election. >> host: michigan governor seat currently rated lean democratic. you can see race ratings and the house senate, cook political.com and you click ratings and scroll through them, plenty to search through as we hear from jeff in wichita kansas, republican. >> caller: good morning, john, charlie, big fan. i would like to have your view on how this year elections are going to go, i'm particularly look at the kansas 4 and any other races you care to comment on, sure appreciate that. >> guest: sure i was in wichita earlier this year. >> host: you travel quite a bit. >> guest: i do.. i do. the governor's race, normally republicans have no problems and we are seeing in places like

kansas, places like oklahoma closer gubernatorial races than you expect and i think some of it is you had some -- some of the reddest republican states taxes cut a lot and spending cut a lot and education becoming a big issue and teachers demonstrations and all that and there's been something of a backlash there, so we've got -- the canvas governor's race is very close. the secretary of state is, you know, maybe a couple of points ahead but it's closer. it's closer than it ought to be. you were saying -- >> host: kansas 4. >> guest: 4 solid republican, the two races that we are watching most closely there's open seat the jenkins open seat in kansas second district and then yoder, kevin yoder

republican incumbent in third district and that one we actually have rated as lean democrat. back in the old days we didn't -- we used to have a policy of not putting unindicted incumbents because they have a way of coming back. the elections have gotten sort of more parliamentary, midterms, more explosives, so we've actually got that lean get away from him which we didn't used to do until the last six or eight years but that's tough, there are 6, 8, 10 republican seats that they look pretty likely to tip over the side and that's, you know, kansas, that's quite something. >> host: we talked about new jersey a bit already. vaughn, in edison, new jersey, independent. >> caller: i had two questions, last comments, the first one when you mentioned about the

kavanaugh protest and you said it turned the heartland. how is that going -- fair because during obamacare protests those voters came out to protest on i'm care, spitting on congressmen, that didn't tilt the heartland -- >> guest: well, there were some tough antiobamacare behavior on capitol hill. i don't think it was this bad. i mean, you know, all i can say i was there and i didn't -- i thought this was more -- and the thing is that these people that were protesting -- i know they are passionate, they felt strongly about it but they really hurt their cause and if i were dr. ford, i think i'd be pretty ticked off that, you know, that what she did was undermined by people out in the hall and in the hallways who

were not acting the way you really oughtay to act in capitol building and u.s. senate offices. >> host: democrat, good morning. >> caller: good morning, thank you for taking my g call. i just want to ask mr. cook what he thinks about the democratic messaging. it seems to me that they do a terrible job at messaging. i will give you 3 examples. on immigration, the republicans say, oh, democrats are for open borders, the truthth is obama deported more illegal aliens than the previous several presidents combined. democrats don't say that. they always play defense. on the economy, the economy was already doing well and trending up when obama left compared to what he inherited. on health care, the democrats -- i mean, sorry republicans came

in 2010 promising a replacement to obamacare, they never offered any replacement and democrat -- >> host: got your point. on messaging. >> guest: let me and i was listening to cable show yesterday morning, i watch very little cable but there were people m complaining about, wel, the democratic messaging and i thought they were totally wrong, take immigration, for example, yes,ig the obama administration deported a whole lot of people and more people have been deported so far, is that really a message they want to do when they can't get latinos out to vote, really having a hard time, is that a message that democrats want to do, no, i don't think so. i don't think that's what democrats ought to be talkingng about. and the fact is that lots of times the economy gets going, something happens in one administration and it works to the benefit of the other.

you know, president clinton was the beneficiary of president george h.w. bush effectively sacrificing his presidency by raising taxes which cut deficits enormously. clinton was the beneficiary. it just sort of works that way. the thing about it is midterm elections are referenda on incumbent presidents, that's always true. when you have a polarizing president where three quarters of americans either love him or hate him, 3 quarters, this is, you know, the democratic message is very, very simple, checks and balances, the system is based on checks and balances, democrats are arguing that republicans in congress have not been a check on president trump and that a democratic congresss would. that's their message. he got the health care. the thing is -- it's preexisting conditions, if you're a democrat and you're talking about

single-payer, you're brain dead. i wouldn't even go with medicare for all, talk about single payer, you're looking at swing voters, that's what's important. so i think -- i understand the caller's positions but these two parties, they spend a lot of money on polling and focus groups and occasionally they are wrong on messaging but they're more often closer to right than wrong. >> host: let's talk about republican messaging especially a message that we've heard in pastst cycles, the message nancy pelosi, this is nrcc ad tieing new york democrat anthony delgado to nancy pelosi, new york's 19th district. >> paying too much in taxes, antonio delgado will make you play -- pay more. delgado supports radical takeover of health care, to pay for it they would have to double

income taxes on every single person in america just like cuomo and pelosi, antonio delgado another big city liberal we can't afford, the nrcc is responsible for the content of this ad. >> host: nancy pelosi in ads. >> guest: for 8 years republicans were able to use president obama and hillary clinton as a foil to beat on and did it, you know, effectively in some years. they are out of the picture, nancy pelosi is what's left. a distant third but some places it may make a difference but, you know, if you're going to ask me for better or worse is this election more likely to be about donald trump or nancy pelosi, it's a lot more likely to be about donald trump than nancy pelosi but in some districts it works but for republicans, i think they've got two different

messagesbl for two different groups of people. for the hard-core trump base, tea party, conservative white evangelical christians, the message would be if democrats take over they want to impeach, remove president from office and it's -- that's the central message. for the republicans that aren't that crazy about president trump, overall they like generally speaking what is going on, they may not like behavior on everything, butne the messagg is do you like where the economy is, do you like 4.2% gdp growth, you like unemployment at 3.7, best since 1969, do you like looser regulations, if democrats take over, they're going to reverse all of that and so with that part of the party it's a messaging that's not oriented towards president trump, with the first part of the party it

is oriented towards president trump. >> host: so that's difference between west virginia senate race and barbara's house seat in suburban washington,a d.c.? >> guest: right. gosh, i'm sick about talking about the kavanaugh fight. the kavanaugh fight in classic suburban swing districts it didn't make a whole lot of difference. it was out in small town rural america, working-class white males, that's where it -- it backlashed, but we are looking at fascinating numbers. the gender gap has been around since president reagan's first team, but we are typically seeing among men republicans are running 3 to 5 points ahead and among women, democrats are runningpo anywhere from 15 to 25 points ahead which is a massive gender gapap and it's suburban

women, college-educated women that republicans are getting buried and suburban districts, that's where the big fight in the house is. not the senate but the house, that's where it is. .. .. everything cheap. there cheaters. democrats are tired of being cheated. they use gerrymandering, sure. democrats might have done some gerrymandering years ago but republicans took it and made it nuclear. they have all the governorships and now we have this slime in the white house. democrats are tiredth of losing.

>> guest: if i were a democrat in north carolina i understand how she feels. with carolina, i'm being nonpartisan but let's just say republicans aggressive and effective in pursuing their agenda. now, it's not true, i live in maryland weather is a very strong democratic gerrymander. if a live-in illinois, very strong. these midterm elections are huge prick huge. in midterm elections, not presidentialge years, three quat is a follow governorships are up, four-fifths of all our state legislative seats are up. the last midterm before redistricting is particularly huge and important. when democrats got buried in 2010, the last midterm before the 2011 redistricting, it was catastrophic. when you lose badly the last

midterm before a redistricting, that is the defeat that keeps on defeating for a decade. that's why republicans need to be really, really, really nervous is this you may be on the wrong foot. >> host: a good chance to talk about a guy whose twitter handle is redistricting. tragic i saw one of your preview guesses from university of virginia. david wasserman is our. house editor and uva grad and was one of larry's students. when i met him he is just fabulous. i got is so, so bright. i used to know all the house races by heart. i didn't know it nearly as well as david does. >> host: we love the cook political report. david wasserman will be joining us next week.

charlie cook with us for about the next 25 minutes. louisville, kentucky, republican, good morning. >> caller: good morning. i just want to say i'm a great admirer of mr. cook. i'm 51 and c i been watching him since my 20s and his analysis hastc always been very fair, vey spot on. my question -- >> guest: go ahead and make me feel old. >> caller: if the republicans do hold the house of representatives, do you think it will be because the basic nature of the districts that are voting onha will have a republican leaning to them and that there would be like almost a hidden republican vote that comes out that's not be reflected in the pollsters? and that i'd like to ask about the lexington race and kentucky.

thank you very much. >> guest: let me do polling districts and then get to andy barr. pulling, a national polls really were not that far off to be honest. their average was clinton up by three points, real clear politics average comes she won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage point. it's pretty close. a national polls off slightly more in 2012 in the other direction way the race between obama and romney closer than the three points it ended up being but aei national polls, these national polls you see from the major networks are fairly pretty extensive, fairly sophisticated polls. get up off. where there was an epic poll. what people need to be more careful is look at the state level, local and state level polling because a lot of that, some of it is good but some of it, the tactical political science term, schlock, the

largest south -- garbage that is out there. you have to be careful. there is a wall, characterized this election is like a blue trim democratic tidal wave up against red republican seaway. in the house of representatives in most not all but most states that is -- >> you can find the rest of this discussion online at c-span.org. take you live now. c-span2 to the hudson institute for discussion of use policy towards syria. >> good afternoon and welcome. welcome to hudson institute. welcome to this debate about next steps for the u.s. strategy in syria. my name is jonas parello-plesner. i'm a nonresident senior fellow.