several friends who are trans. this new policy i guess is currently called because a tub and four voted him or propose i don't believe, is in my eyes just further evidence of why the government has no business, has no business being in so involved in my life. i really don't think this is something they should have a say in. but they been voting about a lot of things they shouldn't have a say in. it's important to me that this is resolved because it's not just, takes away more rights from me and my ability to exist. >> voices from the states, part of c-span's 50 capitals tour. >> real clear politics sean trende he joins us for the next hour to discuss house, senate

and gubernatorial races. you're most interested in the cycle but let's start in the house. you wrote a piece for real clear politics at the end of last week. what a democratic wave and house of representatives look like. start by defining what a weight is, what number democrats would have to reach to achieve a wave? >> guest: >> it's funny, journalist talk about this concept of waste all the time but we don't have real good working definition of it. what i would sit is a wave election is when one party it's all the breaks up and down the ballot. in this cycle it probably would be democrats picking up 35 or more house seats, may be breaking even or picking up a senate seat, taking the senate would count and in getting based on what overseas and the, getting six or seven more governorships. >> host: what is the biggest barrier to democrats getting those breaks tomorrow? >> guest: there's just a lot of uncertainty with who was going to end up voting on election day. we saw this in 2016 where people

thought the run-up in election things were looking great for hillary clinton and then we saw the election day boat, huge for republicans. that's kind of the big a note is we still get a lot of people turn out to vote on election day. they don't vote early. they're not robust and of the early vote and only to some surprising results sometimes. >> host: the companion piece to the first we mention and real clear politics what a republican hold in the house might look like. how plausible is that democrats don't reach that magic 23 number? to republicans need a political miracle? >> guest: not a political miracle. we would probably say one in four, 15 but that's roughly where we had donald trump at in 2016 for winnie. these sorts of events occur and when you go seat by seat in the house races there are a lot of racist city on a nice edge so the can to break towards

republicans day. republicans really could narrowly hold the house. >> host: the phone lines open if you want to join the conversation. let us know what races you interested in. sean trende, stokes are calling in take us through how you read election night. what's the first tell for you in terms of what direction weathers going to the first article the democratic wave or the second article of republican hold. >> really fortunate we oppose closing before 7:00 in two states that have some kind of competitive races. in indiana with joe donnelly against his opponent. this could be a very close race. if donnelly is losing or if it's not a nice edgecomb republicans are in good shape. if he's running away with his winning by four or five points, a long night for republicans.

also in contact with the race of andy barr versus amy mcgrath. if that race is looking like a tossup, this is a district that went for trump, or republican less last couple cycles by about nine points on average. if this is a race that's what you like it's a nice edge, again, it's not a good look for republican. >> the first tell, when will it be confirmed on election? >> probably gets confirmed one way or the other by 8:00. a lot of states with very competitive races that close at 7:00. we start to get some medication from virginia. the open fifth district in virginia. we'll also get our rehash of the special election in georgia six but that the race that looks like karen handel might lose an election. it will be a long night for republicans because most people thought she would win by four or 5. >> host: remind viewers how many races on the midterm

election we are usually waiting on by the following morning pick is a quite a handful? a dozen more? >> guest: one of the issues is california gets a ton of mail and politifact account my hand. it takes forever for them to count. there are five or six competitive races out in california where we could be waiting weeks to get the final result, if it's close. there are other races that it will take a while for the bows to trickle in, different states count the ballots at different paces and in very close races you have to count to the provisional ballots which can be heavily litigated. it could take a long time to know exactly who's going to control the house. >> host: walk farther down that scenario it is the panel and that california races. what happens you with the national party, who gets sent out to california to watch this process? >> guest: in the scenario

where the control of the house is on a knife edge it's going to be, i don't know how may of your views are old enough to remember the florida recount were hand lawyers descend upon the state, it will be similar because people are going to fight over whether alex should be counted or not. with all the technicalities of the lab and followed, it signatures match. that is a nightmare scenario for the country weather will be a huge legal battle if he comes down to close races in those districts. >> host: sean trende, a veteran of many campaigns taking your calls. let us know what races would focus on. we'll start with rock hill, south carolina, a democrat. >> caller: yes. listening and i think most of the people calling are probably old enough to do my parents and so i've represent most of the new wave of voters coming in. it's pretty disturbing to listen.

i find a lot of the older voters are very content with voting for the party that their voting for simply because of what they hear versus what is going on. let's be 100% honest and say this wave of lowering of jobs and increase of, , whether it be if you look at the numbers. this is passed on here for eight years you can't take what was going on in the cotton and say that that is due to trump less than two years in office. honestly or two years in office. you cannot say that this race or his time in office has been all of his work. let's just be honest. it really bothers me because we have become a nation and it is literally basically just going against each other based upon what we are against versus what we have in common.

we all need health care group we all need to be protected and we all came as immigrants. when it's all set in done it bothers me because i'm so ready for this new wave of voters to come in because we want love it more people to get along and this is what's going on. the division has to stop. >> host: thanks for the call. sean trende, she brings up the economy, , healthcare, emigrati. when we look back on campaign 2018 what you think will be the defining issue? >> guest: i think a lot depends on how it turns out here are post analyses tend to be too much results driven but if the economy were doing worse trump which are some of the play but not all of it. we find that it usually takes about two years for the electric to really start to blame or give credit to the electorate . trump is getting some support for the economy but if it's

going as this will in four years and will be viewed as the trump economy. the same time emigration is something that is driving republicans to the polls. you have healthcare driving democratic voters in some independents to the polls. there are in this election particular a lot of issues driving people one way or the other. >> host: you mention 2020. when did when did the race to 2020 begin? >> guest: it's begun already. there's something called the invisible primary which is where you don't have candidates running around openly campaigning. they're starting to try to put together teams, secure donors, get endorsements that they can roll up the first couple of days. delete me the fight for 2020 in the democratic party has already begun. >> host: to the all-important battleground of ohio, columbus, ohio, patricia is waiting, a democrat. good morning. >> caller: good morning. i'm 82, and 60 years ago i wrote

a poem and that's still prevalent today. i'd like to dedicate it to donald trump. i'm from the old school, each one, teach one. it's not the call of the person that matters. it's the person. it's not the religion or the politics one follows. it's the person. does a person have a heart as pure as gold and clarity to win a lonely soul? that's what matters. god loves us all, no matter if we are red, white, yellow, brown, black or blue. he create it as equal basis, and actually makes another just as good as you. so be not so quick to down someone who is different or whose ways are not quite the same as yours. but be thankful, be so ever thankful that god gave us so many different races for us to honor, respect, and the door. thank you very much.

>> host: that was patrician clumps oil. chuck, alabama, republican. >> caller: good morning. you know, don't cut me off but i been listening to you, i'm 80 years old and i don't care what anybody says in favor of the republicans. you jump up and you start barking something that somebody that sent in a tweet or something. anybody knows you never served in the military. you can't go out here and just present the facts as it is. i mean, i remember, i was a kid but i remember tokyo rose. you could stand shoulder to shoulder with her. >> host: so what races are you interested in? >> caller: pardon? >> host: what races are you most interested in in 2018? >> host:

>> caller: alabama. you people like to throw -- between the truest presence we ever had was jimmy carter and obama. >> host: that is chuck and alabama. take us to alabama? >> guest: aspect alabama does not have a lot of competitive races unless we get us a price somewhere. we do get surprises on election night but you have governors race where you had a governor who is was forced to resign. there's some speculation that the governor took me over might be in trouble. the polling suggests she is running safe so alabama is a state and think will not see big shifts. >> host: you mentioned surprises. if you have to predict, accuse w surprises, where should we be looking? >> guest: i think because the "new york times" has been a doing a lot of time i think with toil the soil pretty well. one of these experiment districts, like georgia seven,

which is a district that is traditionally been republican but if we do get this kind of red suburban wave we could see a district like that with maybe new york second district peter king out on long island, a district that if we see a big mass suburban defection, that could flip. >> host: focus on steve king going up on the air for the first time last week in his campaign. use in danger in that district that he and president trump have won handily? >> guest: i think what we're seeing this cycle is a lot of democrats have gotten 500,000, 1 million, $1.5 million which is enough to run a a credible campaign. there activated a latent democratic base that has not been activated in the past which is probably in some of these districts enough to get into 46, 47%. the question is can he get to 50% +1? i think in iowa what you're seeing is speaking is thinking

there's enough going on that actually work to get my face out. at the same time it would be a huge upset if he were to lose but that is the type of thing we see in wave elections. i think he's the favorite but not prohibitively. >> host: louisiana, malcolm, independent. good morning. >> caller: good morning. i live in louisiana we don't really have any national things that are big down here. we have all the house crisis but i think it's all pretty said. some amendments to the constitution but i but i triedt in this weekend when i i heardl these people talking about all the hate speech and the hate that is coming from the republicans. if you look at the way things are going, if they would see how many people that are running on the republican side, how many have been attacked. when obama was president i don't member ever seen anybody from the administration or congress

or anybody that was attacked in restaurants or in airports, gas stations or anyplace. all of this hate speech is coming from those that are pro-speech. don't let the of the site talk it seems. i myself set you could think that these people are going to run the country with all of this hate speech that they don't want to hear, they would be the ones that will be saying it, it's ridiculous. i just am fed up with a lot of this kind of stuff and if you believe polls, you're a doofus because when is the last time they were accurate? have a blessed day. bye-bye. >> host: sean trende, how much faith do you put in polls and can you talk about how you deal with polling at real clear politics? >> guest: the polling this cycle has been pretty good. we got a number of special elections in alabama, southwest pennsylvania, , and ohio and the polling averages have been pretty close within with an apt

to to how things turned out. at the same time there is a a tendency to over interpret polls. people see the number this put up 49-47 or 46-42 46-42 and thk that the things are going to turn out. it's not the case. polls, because they are just small samples of the population at large, they have we call air margins and that means we think that number is right but it could be a couple points off either direction. that's the real thing. when the polls off a couple points and a few places, it can make a big difference in outcome like it did in 2016. at the same time it's expected here we don't think we'll see massive poll errors. it's not like we see the polls say 45-42 infant democrats went 60-40. they could be easily off a couple points. >> host: real clear politics.com is a website, a great place to go for all your polling information because they

list the results of all the polls. the polls the route yesterday, dozens of posts over the past couple days, plenty of information to dig through. we don't have to wait too much longer. lewis is in perry, georgia, a republican. good morning. >> caller: good morning. i'd like to ask your guest what percentage of polls that we are exposed to through the press, shows like this, others, what percentage of the polls does he think purposely are skewed by the questions they ask to serve the purpose of liberalism, democrats or republicans? i wouldn't personally believe, for instance, that the "new york times" did a poll. i wouldn't believe it, you

couldn't pay me to believe it because i know it's going to be slanted against the republicans. >> host: how do you trust polls? >> guest: there are two things. the first is we do see polls from openly partisan pollsters, from partisan democrats, partisan republicans. those are useful because as your caller suggest they set the bounds of what we might expect things to turn it. the republicans tend to get the best case in there for republicans. the democrats give a best case scenario for democrats. we know the truth will be somewhere probably in the middle of those two. the other thing what is hinted at is the question of like question wording. they could be unconscious bias in how you word the question. that's why to import to do what we do at real clear politics, take a broad swath of polls and tried average of him. again the idea the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. >> host: when you average those, do you find that the

compiled average was closer in 2016 then some of the other polls better out there? >> guest: overtime, the real clear politics average is closer to the truth in any particular poll. there might be one cycle, in any given cycle that might be of particular pollsters that has a good model that does better than average, and that's inherent in averages, but over the years, averages the individual pollsters. >> host: the average now when it comes to the generic congressional ballot, democrats with a 7.3% lead on the generic congressional ballot. explain what that is and doesn't even matter? >> guest: the generic ballot is a question, who too plentiful for, democrat or republican? sometimes your people talk about generic democrat or generic republican and that's what they're referring to. people are saying i plan to vote for democrats by seven points. the problem is people go into

about the and they say i kind of like my congressman even if i don't like republicans or democrats and end up pulling the lever for their particular member of congress. that's why the generic ballot at this point in the cycle isn't the best indicator individual house raise polling is a better indicator. the generic ballot we are not surprised to see it off to a three pointer which means if democrats win the popular vote, the total nationally by four-point or by ten points we would not be shocked. >> host: louisville ohio independent. rick, go ahead. >> caller: the guy from alabama said he was 80. he grew up in alabama. i'm 60 and i grew up in detroit and real quick, the , the diffee between detroit and alabama something called the civil war. we had union labor up in detroit. they had slave labor in alabama.

that brings me to a are right now in this country. like i said i'm 60. i've written three books. accounting, economics to read to private schools. i've owned businesses. i've worked as an accountant. i can reconcile a balance sheet. so what happened here in the past 50 years, we went from the greatest civilization in history of mankind to basically a modern-day nazi germany. it all happened by destroying the political and economic system that existed in the midwest. this was destroyed by the south, beginning with the south and their economic, ideology led by the state of texas with their war, , the oil, their illegal labor. >> host: rick, bring us back today. what is your question for sean trende as we just look ahead to the next 24 hours or so? >> caller: the democrats are billionaires from new york, connecticut and california. now we have a beginning point --

did you cut me off? >> host: no. finish your comment, we have a beginning point to where we are right now. now, the last election, the last election, hillary clinton versus bernie sanders. the election starts and there are 3000 3000 people at a berne sanders convention and there's literally 50 people at a hillary convention, and msnbc and the people that work at their come out and say that hillary clinton has a 30% lead on bernie sanders. so the whole process works its way out, and -- >> host: got your point. you want to talk about the influence on the democratic side of bernie sanders and hillary clinton from 2016 and what it means heading into tomorrow? >> guest: bernie sanders and

hillary clinton kind showcase the two faces of the democratic party. you have this traditional, traditional going back to the '90s at least, kind of new democratic base that the way to win elections was attacked the city, moderate some positions although hillary was more aggressive on social issues certainly then bill had been. you had bernie sanders represented this fledgling progressive wing that's been flexing its muscles in these elections. what's going to be interesting is to see how this plays out in the democratic general election in the democratic primary. if you see solid progressives like andrew gilligan and stacy abrams in florida and georgia windows governorships, despite being unapologetic progressive, it's going to make it a lot harder for centris to win this democratic primary in 2020. >> host: in that article we referenced earlier about what a republican hold in the house might look like, you predicted

even then it's probably going to get bad night for republicans in new jersey. great is in palisades park new jersey, and independent. go ahead. >> caller: if you look at everything that trump has done from foreign policy to the economy, and go point by point, basically he has done a good job. looking at the president i understand he's very unconventional and he turns off a lot of people. it is the final result that counts. as far as the immigration front, if you look at the caravan, and i would not call it a caravan. that's a pc word but you'd look at all those people and announcing all the people are bad people. they are people come here because they have little choice where they are. the problem is though, i think a

lot of people from the left that they want healthcare. they want healthcare for all. even the radical left want, which is ridiculous, they want people to get paid for doing nothing. they want a salary just for being. with all those people come in they will require services, require health care services, education for the children. they will go to the schools and not have the basics of english. it's going to be a problem. it will add to the system. when they say the support healthcare and also support open borders, those two things don't go together. they don't work. >> host: sean trende, issue of the caravan and final days of this election? >> guest: i don't think there's any doubt energize some republican voters and sent them to the polls. what it's really done is the one thing republican so want to talk about is a healthcare bill because it doesn't anyone happy. they didn't get it passed repeal obamacare's republicans are not happy about it. they did get something to the house for democrats and liberal

leaning independents are not happy about it. more republicans talk of immigration that at least appeals to the base, the happier they are. that's part of what the dynamic is, trying to use the president bully pulpit to shape the field of discussion on, at least more favorable than some of the alternatives. >> host: we've been taking a look at ads relating to these issues we've been talking about. here's one from pennsylvania, republican group and working with scott wagner, his ad about the caravan. >> on the immigration there's a big difference between scott wagner and tom wolf. i dangerous caravan of illegals koreans careens to the border, tumor behind it and liberal tom wolf is laying out the welcome mat. he opposes president trump's call to send troops to the border and supports a dangerous sanctuary cities which attracts

even more illegals. scott wagner will keep pennsylvania safe. van century city, stop the caravan from coming here. scott wagner for governor. >> host: take us to the pennsylvania governors race. >> guest: it's its presets not looking terribly competitive. the republicans lost it in in e 2014 midterm election. the governor has been fairly confident governor -- competent covers and you don't find them in an unfavorable situation get what you do see is how the politics of immigration playset in some of these states. if you want to win as a republican in pennsylvania you have to energize traditional democratic voters in southwest pennsylvania to vote for you. these cultural issue how you do it. these types of ms. don't appeal to suburbanites in philadelphia. to lesser degree in the pittsburgh area. use the trade-off that involve for republicans in making these sorts of appeals, and of democrats for avoiding them. >> host: you say that's not

the race that is too competitive but the kentucky sixth district race is one of the bellwethers that will be watching early in results come in. here's the democrat in that race with her closing and in the campaign. >> i flew 89 combat combat missions as a u.s. marine and my 90th mission is running for congress. to take a politician to put party over country. some days this is my toughest mission. i think healthcare is a fundamental right that should be guaranteed. that's what i will take on anyone who wants to eliminate or undermine the affordable care act. but taking my kids to get a shot, i approve this message because i would like to see the other guy running deal with this. >> host: sean trende come on healthcare as a closing at in the campaign. >> guest: like i said that's the issue that democrats want to talk about now. they want to talk with pre-existing conditions, talk

about increasing access to health care because that's something that generally appeals to people regardless the party. notice that advertising is almost all biography. there is a reference to the healthcare issue, a winning issue for democrats but that's how you write and that's a win in a republican leaning district like this. >> host: less than 30 minutes left in our election day each show. sean trende with us until the top of the hour taking your calls about the race is your most interested in watching. ruth in maryland, democrat, go ahead. >> caller: so yes, , i'm in maryland and is a fairly uneventful election, unfortunately been jealous my candidate raised the white flag long ago. but i'm kind of more looking forward to the 2020 election and i'm concerned about the polling

that shows the midterm could be problematic for the republican. i think that sometimes the polls give people a false sense of security so that may be not as many democrats will turn up. i'm also concerned about the fact our most reliable paper, the "washington post," is so anti-trump that the picture on the front of the "washington post" today shows trump speaking to a group of what might be 75-100 people but it's apparently a rally in macon georgia that was 40,000 people. i just think they are giving democrats a false sense of security so i'm actually worried about democratic turnout and a wonder what you think about that as a pollster? >> host: sean trende, we will like to respond as we should use the front page of the "washington post" today. >> guest: we don't see a lot of evidence democratic turnout

is tethered to the contrary we see higher levels of engagement we've seen in previous midterm elections. what's new is worsening high levels of enthusiasm engagement from republicans. this is an election where i think some of the traditional concerns of democrats don't necessarily apply. we usually see come have seen a drop off in democratic turnout in 2010 2010 and 2014 but not h this time. it's reflected in early voting for democratic turnout has been robust. it's not a situation where it will collapse. doesn't look like it's absolutely through the roof either, but we also have the election day vote to go. >> host: patrick is in fairfax, virginia, republican, good morning. >> caller: hey, good morning. one thing i wanted to talk about was just how crazy this new wave of voting is, not really the people voting but just the advertisements for voting targeted at younger voters just all over social media, for

example. they are asking kids come have you registered for voting? begins asking kids to vote. it's crazy. i was curious if you could talk about the virginia governor's race and thank you for taking my call. >> host: how old are you? >> guest: i mean, i'm like 24 and a going to vote in the first time i put it was in the first obama election. i remember then coming for us then but it just, , now it seems like it's targeted in a lot more tacticians ways. >> host: do think it is going to work in 2018? >> caller: oh, yeah. i know the people are more, i know kids, given my age are more excited about voting now than they have been just because they think that, well, it is such an important race. if you look all around what's at stake in the senate and in the house and the fact that we just got tablet and as well.

so we really have a risk of all three branches of our government in control by one party, which is kind of scary which is why this election is so important i think. >> host: before you go, you wanted to talk about the governor's race in virginia last year or the senate race this year? , the senate race. >> host: on youth vote in the virginia senate race. >> guest: we are seeing some indication in the youth engagement is although we usually see mica said a lot of people on election day so we will have to wait and see whether that carries through. the democrats would love to see the early youth vote out because it tends to be more democratic these days than the republican vote although that's not always been the case. as for the virginia senate race most of us have regard that as being over at least since the republican primary. corey stewart is a just isn't right for the virginia we have today where a large chunk of the ballot is being cast in cities

like richmond and newport news and up in the virginia suburbs. he just doesn't have enough appeal to the type of voters who cast the most votes in virginia today. >> host: walk through your senate map and especially the map that has the senate with no toss up races, what that means and where that would leave us if that is indeed the turnout tomorrow. >> guest: right now i believe we're getting polls every minute so since i've been in this chair, the races have probably changed but i believe we have republicans picking up a seat in the senate which is a disappointing result for them given the number of seats that democrats were defending him unfairly territory. the democrats are defending ten seats in states donald trump one. five of them in states he won walking away. the ability to get out of this election losing just one seat. we can't rule out all the possibility republicans break even or even lose the seat. that's a tremendous result for

democrats. at the same time there's always error margins and a lot of these races are close. it would be shocked to see republicans in that game two or three. getting republicans back up to 52 seats in the senate would mean it were not depend on lisa murkowski and susan collins. jeff flake will no longer be a senator so if there were to be another supreme court vacancy that's the main stakes and assent is that they wouldn't be depend on those two moderates republican votes for the replacement. >> host: walk through that map, , the way he would have toy is republicans picking up claire mccaskill his seat in missouri, heidi heitkamp in north dakota but democrats gaining that arizona state, the retiring senator jeff flake. loretta, cleveland, ohio, democrat, go ahead. >> caller: morning america. with all the voter suppression

going on, it's a wonder republicans are not picking up more seats. i'm just wondering why do republicans have such a hard time with the golden rule? you are supposed to treat people the way you want to be treated. what i'm looking at is republicans turning white supremacists, coming with all this hate, putting babies in cages and killing people in the street. what's going on? are you showing us how you want to be treated? >> host: barrette in ohio. we will stay in ohio with mike, an independent. go ahead. >> caller: hey, good morning, everyone. thanks for c-span.

i was just calling to find out if you could give me any numbers on the 13th of ohio congressional district, incumbent tim brian the democrat against kristi piso? >> guest: that was a race back in 2016. without maybe this was a district that are starting to shift away from the democrats for president trump did very well in the district. we know he's had a lot of appeal among blue-collar whites. at the same time we haven't gotten any polling out of there so we don't know what's going on but we've seen some similar districts, a district in northeastern pennsylvania, matt cartwright took a couple polls suggest he xenophobe position. if two more to lose the would be a major, major upset. that's something i think anyone is seen coming right now. >> host: if you're joining us from ohio, what could be the changes to the house met in

ohio? >> guest: we have a couple districts in the liens category and one tossup which is the aisle 12 district where i live. it's the columbus suburb common area that's been tradition the republican but her shifted away from republicans. we had a close special election this fall decided by about 1200 votes. at the same time have district in suburban cincinnati, a district in suburban cleveland will rethink the republicans have an edge but the polling hasn't been very robust in individual house races. we have no idea what's going on in the 14th unless and less las going on in the first. republican losses would be a surprise to us but not shocker. >> host: stephen, idaho, republican. good morning. >> caller: good morning c-span and thank you for taking my call. i had just a statement i would like to say. out in the intermountain area we are looking good for republicans.

and the gal who called in, the democratic gal who called in who said we are keeping children in cages, she of course realizes that when you want to be treated the same way, obama did the same exact thing to the quote caravans coming up here from the south. so she needs to check her fax out. go republicans. >> host: to john in herndon virginia democrat. good morning, i'd like to ask about first of all the governor raised in wisconsin. my next question is, i think most of us were very quiet about that because republicans led us down because the reason they did that, they should control this president is out of touch and a lot of us i don't really care about republican or democrat. i always voted my conscience and my pocketbook, and whoever that

a think is going to do something good for the country. we need to get off this bandwagon just like the previous caller who just called. this is ignorance that we need to -- [inaudible] republicans will get punished because they didn't do their job to control donald trump, his rhetoric, his attacks. that is not what kind of country we are in. but again i want to ask your guest, i think you guys made a mistake last time. we believed that you guys do a good job when it comes to the polling, but --, we'll ask him about that governor's race in wisconsin. sean trende? >> guest: the governor's race in wisconsin, scott walker has been perennially endangered since basically since he won in 2010. he survived a a recall election picky survived a strong challenge in 2014. it looks like 2018 might be

different. he hasn't been pulling particularly well in wisconsin. he's been trailing his relatively unknown democratic opponent. if we end up with a democratic wave, and not a very powerful and would be needed to put scott walker out of the governor's office, but it is doable for the democrats. >> host: your governors know tossups production right now has democrats plus seven seats, 24 democratic seats to 26 republican seats. talk a little bit about how that expectation has changed over the course of the cycle. >> guest: when we started we knew republicans would be in trouble in a couple of seats. we knew the open governors rang base and the open -- rachel thed on 2014 but this environment, those will be tricky. it was the same story in illinois where bruce was just not popular and that's what

we've seen play out. what's been more of a surprise has been the way things have played that that in some of the swing states, wisconsin, ally which looks look like it had ag towards republicans in 2018, 2r 2016 but that seems to have receded. we have these governors races in georgia and florida where very progressive african-american candidates look like it really might pull off what would have been considered shocking victories a year ago. both of those races feature republicans are probably too conservative for the state but still it's a testament to the playing field and how things have shifted against republicans in the last couple of years. >> host: why do you have andrew gillam have a better shot of picking up that florida seat instead of stacy abrams in georgia? >> guest: for these we go off the poll averages. the poll averages is better for andrew gillam in florida.

florida is a perennial swing state. if you add up all the presidential votes of the 1982 in florida, the difference between republicans and democrats is about 10,000 votes. when it's not a great divide for republicans we are not surprised to see a democrat. george is more republican, has the republican link to it. it's not surprising again that individual candidate in georgia would run a little bit behind a gubernatorial democratic candidate in florida. >> host: with about 15 minutes left, we can to marry in potomac, maryland, independent. >> caller: yes. i live in maryland but about ten of us from maryland went to help a suburb outside of richmond. i had to knock on about $33, and out of those 33, only one said that he was not going to vote

for brett. the reason was that the 33, the other 32 said that they were all republicans and now they switched to democrats. lies that trump is talking about. the main one is the democrats want open borders and they don't want any members coming in. the second one that bother them was that 18 times the republicans try to repeal the pre-existing condition in healthcare, and now they want the votes, they are making, doing a real 180. that is what bothers them the most. >> host: that is mary in maryland. sean trende take it to the virginia house map. >> guest: that's a map those initially drawn as a solid

republican gerrymander, republican scott they would hold onto the second, fifth, seventh district. because the cycle split of those races all different degrees of hullabaloo. those people agree barbara comstock is probably not going to be a member of congress after the vote is held and then you these three districts that are looking like tossups. to those our suburban suburban districts and one of those is a real district that has some democratic dna. so again it consistent with the storyline we're seeing come republicans, special in the suburbs are weakening among their traditional voters. >> host: plenty to talk about in the land of 10,000 lakes. brad is an international falls, minnesota. republican. go ahead. >> caller: good morning, john and good morning to your guest there today. i've been listening to your people calling in today and i've got something that i've been

thinking about for the longest time, and that is that how we manipulate the people. this is how it's done is that you have oversampled paul's and you tell one side that their winning and they are going to vote at this isn't something new. starting in 1950 with operation mockingbird. it was the way we manipulate people to the media. we are at the point now again. i mean, it hasn't ended even though they say the cia quit manipulating but they haven't. the only way that the democrats will have a chance of having the media on their side and telling them that they're going to win because that's the only chance they have. if you don't think they're going to win, they will not come out and vote. >> host: sean trende back to this question about trusting polls. >> guest: i don't think the cia is manipulating arpels but i do think, we have to be

cognizant that polls have their margins in them and they can be wrong. we shouldn't take an entirely literally. at the same time it's also important to remember that in 2016 the polls were uniform against trump are not uniformly but serving some of the upper midwestern states. i don't think the bulls have impact on peoples voting that people assume. if anything else that polls for republicans encourage republicans to vote and put democrats in a a false sense of security. >> host: do you want to walk to the house map and where it stands with a day to go? >> guest: minnesota is another state where we're seeing some republican erosion in the suburbs. the third district which is a traditionally republican district i think we'll probably see a flip there. the second district is more getting out to the outer suburbs and even some rural areas but there's a republican who won in a surprise when in 2016, kind of a talk radio host who is

probably too conservative. the state has two of the few real pickup opportunities for republicans in the snap. the open district in the eighth which stretches up from the minneapolis st. paul suburbs of two duluth and the first district contains rochester and runs across the southern border. those are real republican pickup opportunities and in a close race it could be the difference maker. >> host: arlene in san francisco california a democrat. good morning. >> caller: at you for taking my call. i'm worried about the russian hacking of the voting machines like they did last time. i voted by mail and paper ballot in california. what steps have been taken to prevent hacking of this year's voting machines? from what do you votes were changed last election? >> caller: i think in three states they were, there was some manipulation and that's how trump got elected.

>> host: you want to talk about trust in the voting machine? >> guest: i think having some concerns about the integrity of the ballot box i think that's fine. that's healthy. we should always try to make our election saver. at the same time there was a paper that, it's really unfortunate, was put up by some academics speculated on voting tampering in wisconsin, and sylvania, michigan. some of those states have paper ballots so that just wasn't a way for the russians to come in and hacked the machines. it was kind of wild speculation. it's gotten a lot of people worked up in a way that's not appropriate. overall we don't have a lot of hard evidence that russians actually infiltrated and hacked the voting count. the evidence that they tried to influence the outcome of the election is a different story.

>> host: to champaign illinois victoria, independent. go ahead. >> caller: good morning. most people are debating if the republican party is truly a party of in for the american people and protectors of our laws and our constitution or are other just for donald trump's agenda. so that being said, donald trump's administration has lied to the american people and he himself has told more than 6000 lies in only two years. we must constantly seek out the truth daily. i do. fox news is the fake is of all the networks, and i watch fox news and i want all of the news channels. i watch national news. i watch world news and i'm trying to get a perspective of what's going on in the world because we cannot just trust one news source. i collect all the news and then i make my judgments for myself. so unless you're surfing the news and watching worldwide

news, you are not truly informed about what's going on. trump has these guys are and he preaches hate and they are nothing more than televised klan rallies. >> host: sean trende, for viewers who are not family with real clear politics, you want to talk about it? >> guest: that was, i was thinking that was a softball for me because your viewer will love real clear politics. we go out of our way to find articles, points of you discussing both sides of an issue so your readers can read a pro republican arnold, a pro-democratic article and decide for themselves which arguments should carry the day. again we go to great pains to try to pair stories in our main feed. your viewer would really enjoy that. >> host: real clear politics.com its website. how long have you been there? >> guest: i started in 2009. almost a decade. >> host: currently senior elections analyst and with us for less than ten minutes,

taking your calls about the races you're most interested in watching tomorrow. diane, winter park florida republican, go ahead. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. i am a suburban mom. i voted by mail a straight republican ticket. i have two millennials, 22 and 25 and i do vote. in their interests. i wanted to make two points about trump and a think are unique and just remind our viewers, first of all, , he doesn't have to answer to lobbyists like a lot of presidents before him. he didn't have to have a lot of money behind him. he had my of his own and that's really not what put him into power so i think the reason that he can you what he can do is because he doesn't have to

answer to any of these lobbyists. he can call up the drug company and say, you know, lower your prices. he doesn't owe them anything. i think that's unique about them. the second thing that i've seen unique about him that i've never heard another president duda think is pretty profound is he talks about the people that are wounded in these terrorist acts. not just the ones that are killed but he has talked and i heard him numerous times and rallies, talk about the people that are wounded and how it affects and impacts their lives for the rest of the life and death sometimes that's even more the tragedy than the deaths. because living with a world that impact your life for the rest of your life is no fun. >> host: that's diane in florida. you want to talk about president trump in florida? >> guest: president trump is someone who, there are times that he has shown real

residential behavior. they are just overshadowed by some of the things he says on twitter and some of the things he says in speeches. it will be interesting after this election if republicans do have a rough night if he's able to moderate or if you just doubles down on who he has been. in florida the president is not overwhelmingly unpopular like we see in some of the other deep blue states but he's not popular either. if rick scott comes up short, if andrew gill is elected governor, if republicans lose two or three or even four seats in congress, you're not going to very far to look for your explanation that it's going to be because president trump didn't use his presidency so far to broaden his base and the number of people who approve of the job he is doing. >> host: a reminder that c-span is covering president trump's rallies today on election to eat. you'll be in ohio at 3 p.m.

today. the president then heading to fort wayne, indiana, at 630 this afternoon and then to the show me state, missouri, at 10:00 tonight we will be airing those rallies live on c-span, c-span.org, listen to them on the free c-span radio app. to michael wade in wally -- walnut creek california, democrat, go ahead, the democratic party seems to be saying the two big issues, healthcare and free college. what i don't understand, i'm sorry, pre-existing conditions. i think all of us support the idea of covering pre-existing conditions. but as far as free healthcare for all and free college i have just one major question. how are we going to pay for this? the estimates are over ten years free healthcare for all would cost $32 trillion.

we don't have that kind of money. i do want to hear about three to get a tax bill against one buffett and all these other people because if you put all those billionaires together, we don't have enough to pay for the first year of this free healthcare, so where is it going to come from? >> host: sean trende? >> guest: that gets all of it outside my expertise area of e. i'm an election sky, not a health care policy analyst. the answer you will hear from democrats is going to be that after kind of the latest round of tax cuts, they don't have a lot of patience for the question how are you going to pay for. if republicans can cut taxes and not pay for it they will say they can spend on a pay for. the other thing is most of the single-payer advocates that i know .2 savings on the other savings on the persons in. so in other words, you will not have to pay health-care healths or out-of-pocket expenses anymore. in their view it offsets.

but again i don't have the expertise to evaluate those arguments. >> host: our last 30 seconds or so, tell us about election night at real clear politics. were you going to be? >> guest: i will become a home in columbus, ohio, at my desk with my laptop just constantly refreshing everywhere i can look, and hoping that one way or another we know pretty early in nights i don't have to stay up to watch california return stricklin. >> host: viewers can go to real clear politics.com for the update. sean trende is a a scene elects analyst there. appreciate your time. >> guest: thank you. >> president trump be on the campaign trail this evening one to hit at the midterm elections. c-span will have live coverage at about 6 p.m. eastern from fort wayne, indiana. then again at ten eastern when the president is in cape girardeau missouri. with just one day to go before the midterm elections, c-span is your primary source of campaign

2018. tonight booktv is in prime time with a look at recent books on politics. >> which party will control the house and senate? watch c-span's live election night coverage starting tuesday at 8 p.m. eastern as the results come in from house, senate and governor races around the country. here victory and concession speeches from the candidates. wednesday morning at seven eastern you'll get your reaction to the election taking your

phone calls live during "washington journal." c-span, your primary source or campaign 2018. >> c-span cities tour as exploring the american story in cities across the country. during a recent stop in independence, missouri, we asked voters in the state fifth district which issue is most important to you for this november midterm election. .. >> the most important issue for me, not in the elections but it's one of the amendments we are voting on and proposition 2 or be, for medical marijuana is very

important because a lot of people in misery and opioid addiction and also marijuana can help deal with that opioid addiction. they no longer have to use opioids. my father is someone who has a chronic disease so without marijuana he will have to use opioids which will end up killing him. either the disease will kill them or these opioids will. with marijuana he does not have to worry about the marijuana or opioids killing him for me, being secure in our borders. making sure we have the same security they are requesting as they come in, they want a better life, my life to go down because we're trying to help people out. i don't want to be mean but we have to look after ourselves as well . >> the biggest issue for me is the lack of civility and