[applause] thank you for that kind introduction and largely inaccurate but that's okay. i work hard with that reputation to be the s ob and you demolish that in ten seconds after decades of hard work on by the wayside. i supposed to talk about america's challenge this morning i went to the jackson panel then and now and john meacham said he basically remembered e-mailing that title in from somewhere in the backseat of a car so i think america's challenge is similarly broad.

so here is what i propose to do. and where we ought to be focused and then answer your questions. [laughter] we really are in a weird place as a country. is not the first time we have been here but were at a place where politics seemed broken and we are undergoing a moment of populism so we really have gone through the period of 17 years which our trust has been declining in particularly after the financial crisis that somehow the relationship between the ordinary person in the government has been broken and needs to be rebalanced.

and the little man is screwed to rebalance that relationship but on the right the government is in bed with those who have a loophole. and then to take money out of the pockets to give it to deserving institutions. so these concerns have grown worse not just economic in nature that which is seen on the left but it also exist on the right but also cultural populism that somehow the country on the right is changing too much becoming something that it wasn't in the past and to reach the true nature and so in that travel

moment if you are a democrat and your leader is attacked if you agree or not you defend it if you're republican you get it regardless and the number of people the true independence has been shrinking the last 30 years where in the last election one out of every 11 americans with the weekly link before who they had to vote for. the two-stage election the primaries when those including the governor's the second and third and one who has never run for office before who

promises to take a brick throwing it through the plate glass window and end things as they are. hillary clinton was a candidate of the status quo. that's right. if you voted for clinton by a margin of 89 / eight the only problem that was only 32 percent of the country. the rest of the people 60 some odd percent voted just enough to elect donald trump president. that was an unbelievable primary she lost to obama in 2008 but the party was united the president was behind her but yet bernie sanders who has never made a mark in the senate now is the darling of

the democratic party 47 percent raising e-mails without a single fundraiser. ask senator danforth how many fundraisers he had to go to it will bring on pts. [laughter] but here is a guy who raise hundreds of millions by simply being coming in with 47 percent of the vote than the unusual general election were turns out the democrats have achieved the impossible to nominate the o person in america who could lose to donald trump. [laughter] [applause] in this election 18 percent of the electorate thought neither was qualified to be president of united states that is a highest percentage i have ever seen in any presidential election that they think neither is qualified but they voted overwhelmingly for him because he was change. also the election the highest

it should be the lowest percentage of people saying they would be comfortable if the other side one. no matter how strong the feeling was if my guy loses i feel comfortable the country will be in good hands with the other person but this was an all time low if the other side wins the country will be all right so then donald trump 37 percent say i like him he is qualified to be president we have favorable opinions i am voting for him 9 percent that i don't like donald trump he's not qualified but he does represent change and i hate her so i am voting for him. [laughter] as a result with 11000 votes

in michigan, 22000 in wisconsin 44000 in pennsylvania everyone representing a 1 percent margin becomes president of the united states receiving a majority of the electoral college minority popular vote as a result has had little or no honeymoon. part of that is self-inflicted. [laughter] also the first president in our modern age never to get to 50 percent approval. never. not one day after he was inaugurated the high point was after the first so-called summit after little rocket man. the animal spirits was small business confidence big levels

are high levels we haven't seen in decades regulatory relief by stopping things and not doing things causing people to say want to invest in jobs and equipment and tax reform. if you told me there was a chance we were the only industrialized country in the world that didn't have the territorial tax system if you made a product if you were ge and sent it to germany to make a profit and then brought it hom home, then you pay a second haircut. otherwise you could take it home to germany without a

second haircut. we have the highest corporate tax rate of the major industrialized countries and the only one so there we try to compete on the international stage with every american worker with one arm tied behind their back and we change that. is a result of these things to cause us to grow economically 2016 gdp one.5 percent we were told this is a new normal. slow growth growth increased 50 percent quarter one, two.2 four.2 estimate will be above three. we are going growing twice as fast and that is a real difference to a lot of people.

that means a job, a paycheck, a confidence in the future to take care of your family. take them on a vacation put some money aside for retirement. now we have unemploymen unemployment, three.9 percent. we will know what it is tomorrow and his store close lowest african-american rate since we began keeping track in 1948 knots of people who only have a high school education entering the workforce workforce participation climbing back up because i'm sitting on the sidelines there's no opportunity but now there is. conservative judges will serve for a long time and then some changes which nobody is paying attention to?

here is the guy who should be soft on russia. and every president is worried how we get our allies to live up to their commitments and they can tell you how painful it is to tell the germans to do your fair share. i didn't like the way he went about doing that but now we see our nato allies doing what they need to do to step up and spend money to be part of the common defense in europe and around the world. the iran nuclear deal he said he would and he did. move the embassy to jerusalem. still maintaining close relationships with jordan and saudi arabia and other allies. syria. within the first couple of

months if they usetheir people k the red line like it did with president obama? he said it crosses a lot of lines here we go again. something bad happens it crosses a line than obama did nothing. i was with one of those infinite number of saudi princes in 2016 i had no what number like 578 in the line of succession. well educated doesn't understand politics at the end talking about the state of the world and he said i want to congratulate the united states of america for what you have achieved the last few years. the impossible. congratulations.

you convinced israel and saudi arabia that you are completely unreliable ally. [laughter] and i'm thinking watching the present answer this question here we go again. but not too many hours later cruise missiles, launching off from the eastern mediterranean and one quarter of the syrian air force is destroyed. you saw the pictures those little bunkers. that says something about american technology. nafta. i cannot say mca without seeing the village people but it is an update. [laughter]

the internet and e-commerce was zero and mexicans would never be willing to allow investment into energy industry and financial services was not a centerpiece but now we have updated it. but it is updated. now south america finally paying attention in the neighborhood working in concert when we endorsed the provisional president of venezuela we did that in concert wit after done by countries like canada and columbia and chile and argentina, paraguay, brazil. and the right thing to do. but the jury is still out on north korea and china. i have concerns we are treating our allies and friends but the point is he

does a lot of things some things can be applied if he spent less time tweeting about meryl streep's acting ability. [laughter] but i must admit, i know we are in american politics because do not shut the government down. four.4trillion-dollar enterprise to say we'll take one quarter of that off-line and not run in a proper fashion is an irresponsible thing to do for the united states of america great countries cannot do that. that was a mistake. [applause] but then we are embroiled in an unnecessary controversy over something that ought to be done i had the biggest advocate of comprehensive immigration reform i was bleeding over the issue in the

white house through 2007 working to pass a law. i don't need to prove my issues but there are parts that i spent plenty of time during the campaign saying we needed a big beautiful wall along the us border because we don't. in texas we have the canyon us border is 1100 feet in the air. it is a canyon the mexican border 750 feet. where will you put the wall? you want to keep that one mexican driving down 750 feet and then climbing up 1100 to say i have another 30 feet to get up? [laughter]

i was rewarded for these remarks at the wall street journal to have the future nominee of the republican party stand up for 20 minutes in dallas to spend 20 minutes ripping my sorry ass. a lot of people said who is this north korean karl rove? what's the matter with him? but the president is right. when kamala harris says it is immoral prove that to me. introduce the bill that calls for the removal of the border wall between mexico and the united states tell all those people in san diego you don't want a wall to keep people from walking in their neighborhood into the united states and instead forces them to go to a border crossing do that. rather than just playing stupid politics. that is one tenth of 1 percent of the entire federal budget

to shut down the government rather than sit in a room it will be five.7 billion but three three.7 billion that we know you will scrape together but in return we want an answer to the problem of the dreamers. this is how it's supposed to work. but it's broken because we don't have adults in both parties nancy pelosi wanted to show she was strong but she did not do a service to our country one.5 million people sitting out there saying i was brought to the united states as a child i know no country except the united states my status is up in the air because you want to show you were strong and could defeat donald trump in a political

battle my status is still unknown. i'm so one of several hundred thousand that is granted temporary protective status coming from a country that had a horrible natural disaster or like an internal conflict like south sudan you gave me refuge and now my status is up in the air because you wanted to look strong my status is still questioned look the president should not have got us there but my god everybody has a responsibility to resolve this problem to make sense for the future of our country. [applause] that's a strong message to follow. not that anybody is listening. [laughter] but now we face 2020 this is all about pre- positioning for 2020. so we will penalize people and

then to shut her down and she will grow faster than donald trump. get it done. like i have on the turban and i'm johnny carson. [laughter] who the heck knows what will happen? i can't tell you this the president's job approval today is 41 approved on the approval side he has floated between 37 and 44 approval. that is a very narrow range so what that means 33 strongly

favorable 27 strongly favorable. so not only other presidents numbers wrong but someone else is 47 actually it's 55 somewhere else. that i would remind you this nothing is locked in stone at this point in 2010 barack obama was 43 how did he get reelected cracks a little bit of new policy, summer 2012, talked about what he had done little more than spent most of the time disqualifying

that romney i think we will see trump do new policy but spend most of the time to get the democratic nominee but we will have a positive and uplifting campaign. [laughter] and with that 38 reelected and the 44 percent approval he could get at some point. where are the democrats because at the end of the day they will say that person? but then the basis of 43 percent so the starting point is between that number and 50 percent.

so they have an easier game getting across the finish line than he does. on the other hand they can overplay their hand and they did and we saw that with kavanaugh. we raised $195 million if any of you have your checklist this was a reaction to the air line - - unfairness so now coming onto the field if they have close so they became stronger or into better tory. but both they seem to have forgotten the these is there but the real election targets

those that those that are just the reaching for something better for kids may have a primary benefit from friends you will with. but in the west wing i would bee shadow job approval. but i see this channel for that had you feel about this? should start doing that and then challenge that we thought they could have 20 and i that

don't pay attention to the national polls. were not going out on the campaign trail joe biden will be at the top of the butt to see things that will be worth watching. that means by june area ready. says so very much i'm looking forward to it. but that how that plays out is

social media. when i was running in the campaign in 2004 we were worried about 2008 may be fox or see had you get but to be in the news think about it now the youtube channel so why do you think robert francis o'rourke whose nickname i refuse to say is going around the country? because if he gets his teeth cleaned but he has a direct

channel. so what happens? normally we go through a process they can't raise enough money, interest. >> they may not be but that you have enough juice in the tank to stay in the contest. we going to iowa 2016 hillary clinton leads the polls dramatically and strongly then mes the upset and iowa by barack obama does not guarantee another win one week later but it does falter to the top of the polls.

will we see this? if we have 15 or i don't know but it will be interesting to watch. march 3rd use to be a debate of the primary process now it's the day you have a lot of southern states and california and texas. what happens march 3rd? the momentum of somebody in the early state winning new hampshire and those who may have one in the earlier state. the if you are in texas and get so what happens 15 or 20

people that those candidates both at a florida or california. >> i bet this is the first convention since 1952 with ballots at the convention but of those delegates stated that they bind you to for balance and finally my favorite. democratic party is the only .arty that has its own house we call them the superdelegates. they said this time around we will compare authority vertical they don't get to vote on the first ballot.

what happens if it's a multi- ballot now on the party who makes super delegates attending the 1840 convention that nominated pool or campaign advisor to franklin roosevelt in the 44 reelection campaign or for john kennedy in 60 as a superdelegate, they have been around for decades and then what happens on the second ballot when they come screaming at the convention? it could be nirvana for every political junkie in america and mark it on your calendar. it will be one heck of a contest because it will come down to an even smaller number of battleground states. but you can bet every town

county in wisconsin will be covered up by candidates but your mind georgia and north carolina and republicans will read tellier and as i say until the danger for the democrats is the could nominate somebody like that. [laughter] i think i did one hell of a job myself but medicare for also great and 56 percent say we like that idea. now 44 percent call it

socialized medicine if they say your taxes will go up and then you lose your private insurance coverage in 26 percent it may sound good like they guarantee job but not good long-term. i've wasted too much time on the current but none of this is as important what we are missing in america today one is entitlement medicare will go belly up in 2026 the hospital trust fund runs out of money the problem is the average american working couple will pay $160,000 of medicare taxes over the course of their lifetime to take out an average $468,000 to benefit to pass on to kids and grandkids in the simply

unsustainable. the trust fund will run up on - - run out in 2034 they would benefits much match the income stream everybody is cut 24 percent. and sis he was hoping we would keep the current suited and then to raise payroll taxes effective today in order to keep them from going out of business. we have a problem. there is an answer for it we

found a solution advocated by moynihan that one of the duties secrets that is accelerated wages he would think the average benefit is you get $22000 because of the way we calculate the event. weird i should but inflation plus. then we have a problem survey

with a now this morning it is 70 percent now will be more than 100 percent now the problem is spending to but today the federal government spending is equal to 20 percent of gdp averaging 23 percent but now 16.5 percent of gdp so now we

will have a deficit still in less than then to have the venturi that now i will gloss on - - gloss over quickly with russia and china and these are relatively recent.

>> we are a but then there were zero in the electoral college but i want the system to work more than anything else.

but the iranians are starting to comply with the deal but beyond for me to take can pull that through that program but they are an economisaste with european investment

if it's more damaging than he has for is there a crisis? yes. with that study yes for ago but today i don't see the person or those conditions coming to pass. those conditions coming to pass. . . . .

not for me, i generally have a very bad allergic reaction to anything the united nations issues the weight of a former declaration on the status of the world. [applause] when the human rights commission of the united nations is shared by representatives of not just authoritarian regimes but totalitarian regimes, i'd rather be judged by somebody other than taken a nations. sorry to be so blunt. [laughter] >> i will close by exercising speakers prerogative and ending on an optimistic boat. note.

trump will shut down the government and my answer is no. he will be forced, there will be a bill that comes out of the committee that he will sign and claim partial victory and auto. no, i don't. they recognize that too much of a bad thing. even they understand it's a bad thing. >> the republican party did not get together like the democrats did. >> haven't been watching democrats closely. [laughter] they are going right now because it's easier to say no then yes. me say, we are broken. the democrats are doing on this, it's my penny, it's ridiculous. as much as we talk about how bad things are, it wasn't this way

before. are not as bad as we have been before. in many respects, everybody in this room i suspect remembers i 68 and 69, 70, 71 and 72 and 73. we were coming apart at the seams. i'm writing a new book, president of decision making, six controversial decisions and what that president knew at that time and had to work their way through. 1800, thomas jefferson, decoration of independent, university of virginia, secretary of state, vice president of the u.s., one of the right victories of our country, he must've been enormously popular. election of 1800, electoral college, did you know that? december 3, numbers of the electoral college for the president and the vice president separately. you voted, if he was the second guy, river came in number two. if you are jefferson, you expect some of your electors with throw

away the vote, vice president and felt for somebody else. in this case, aaron and he thinks it will be them taking care of it. but they don't. knowing how close the election was, he things he has a chance to get it. there's a tie between thomas jefferson and his running mate and third-place john adams in fourth place, adam's running mate. remember the 31 days in 2000, our country was driven over that? congress meets in the middle of the break, 1801 and house of representatives has to decide the election and commit several blinding snowstorm, each state has one vote, maryland is for democratic and for, if he feels to show up, maryland will go for burke, now the semiofficial candidate of the federal federalists.

carried on a pallet through a blinding snowstorm for 2 miles in washington d.c. and installed in committee room next to the house so he could vote. they vote starting at noon and cast nearly 30 ballots by noon the next morning, straight through the night. every boat is exactly the same, conclusive. they talk about it at work for the next six or seven days and finally alexander hamilton ways in. he says i hate jefferson. i also hate burke. jefferson at least had some character. he tells him of delaware, given a choice between two evils, go for the lesser every time. so he makes himself, basically canceling delaware's vote and convinces from from a to make himself absent so the democratic coniston from for not can cast

his vote for jefferson and jefferson elected president after 37 ballots and nearly ten days of debate and sworn in less than two weeks later. you go to the gilded age, which i studied, you think politics today is broken, during the debate in 1884 on a nation that fails, one understands of and the democrats is personal terms of the appended number finally says mr. speaker, the filing the house, determined from georgia is out of order. he turns to his colleague and said i will not blink you if you were a dog. [laughter] for letters. we have appear he of 1889 through 1890 in which not a single bill, nearly four and half because of them at announced they will not answer

the rollcall and thereby denied the house. no business can be conducted. this is we don't care what you want to do, nothing will pass because we won't answer answer the rollcall. got the house plans on one particular day to end this. he locked arms in front of every door, and renounced to the house, barricaded every door in the house on the outside and at the end of the, somebody calls for a call, they call the warm, democrats don't answer, warmth does not exist. mr. smith president, causing name of every democrat before. it happens? all hell breaks loose. they run for the doors. the sergeant walked their arms, one member of the house gets out. he beats the crab out of the sergeant and uses cowboy boots.

he made his escape. one democrat stands up and screams in anger. i'm part of the constitution, you have night no right to tell me without my permission. general donovan from kentucky, upon before of the house. for two and half more months, this is upon and finally settled by the u.s. supreme court. before and half, no bill gets passed. opening day of the debate, another makes a contribution to the positive spirit. and henry, 6-foot 6 inches tall, meat is a snake. the entire civil war and stands up and points his finger and says, if any member will order me to remove this dictator from his position of power, i will do so by force fourth wit. he says, he's out of oer.

the next day, martin chose up, takes out his 16-inch enough, he sharpens it on his boot so. i don't remember pelosi doing this in 2011. [laughter] we've been here before, we will get out again. [applause]

>> booktv continues now on c-span2. television for serious readers. >> good morning, thank you for being here. thank you also for all the hours you spent in your favorite chair or sitting on a backboard or backyard or the beach. wherever you do it. thank you for reading. i don't know where i would be without you all. i have been a write f