this is half an hour. >> doctor jacob black i welcome you to the podium.

>> at this time, it's a distinct honor and pleasure to introduce the secretary of commerce, mr. wilbur ross. ... administration. welcome, everyone and thing you for joining us today for the annual outlook on the 2019 hurricane season. the united states is fortunate to have such dedicated experts at the forecasting offices and at the national hurricane center

including the pilots and staff who fly to g. for hurricane hunter aircraft that you see here. the hurricane hunter aircraft will go for 800 hours last year. year. while on the ground, i had the privilege of meeting many of these men and women. they are professionals. they generate heaps of data used to determine storm's intensity and direction. it's not just the center of a biometric low that is measured and analyzed, but the air for thousand on all sides of it including above and see his. professionals worked tirelessly to issue alerts to the public and emergency officials about

the potential for hazardous weather. they work even harder during the off-season. they learn from every storm and apply that to future forecasts. i'm proud to note that the predictions are far more accurate than they have been in the past. noaa has invested in technology and personnel. it has more powerful supercomputers, better software and algorithms and more precise observational system is. it's in the polar orbiting satellites it has betrayed the people needed to update the

systems and interpret the hundreds of bytes of data that generates every day. noaa has improved the forecasting of the tracks by 30% over the past decade. it has been approved the meantime of its forecast by three days meeting five day advanced forecast now is the same accuracy as its two-day forecast and seven-day trek now is what the four-day track used to be. that's important because advanced warning saves lives and gives people a better chance to protect property. the system is even getting better starting in june it will transition to a forecasting model with a new dynamic for

with the marvelous name of the finite volume of pf b3 bath will be the first update to the dynamic corner of the global model since 1982. it will improve the current version return on the punch code and for these we owe every one of the noaa noaa a debt of gra. [applause] as a florida resident, i am acutely aware of the tremendous tax that hurricanes can have on lives, properties and businesses. we had an extremely busy hurricane season. as you may remember at one point

last year, for m forming the sts were enacted simultaneously. like slings and arrows of outrageous fortune it cost $40 billion in damages and retired to the notorious name michael and florence. the bottom-line o bottom line o9 outlook is really about being prepared as much as it is about the number of storms. with many strong tropical storms especially those that consist install the greatest destruction occurs beyond the coast. it was severe and life-threatening. the impacted by deep tropical

depressions to stay and be ready to heed the warnings and two emergency management community. the department stands ready to serve the nation before, during and after any storm. so again, thank you for being here and congratulations for all of your activities. the primary goal of today's outlook is to encourage the public to take steps to prepare for the hurricane season which begins on june 1. preparing means reviewing and creating emergency evacuation plans and gathering supplies now in case your area is hit by a

hurricane. we will hear more about prepared us shortly. before i announce the hurricane season outlook i would like to discuss how noaa is prepared to keep the public safe and informed this season. we strive to deliver timely and accurate forecasts supported by the weather models which are incredible amounts of data from sources such as the noaa satellites and drops on deploy deployed. the turboprop which is over here is vital to the hurricane response assistance and is used to conduct low altitude surveys of the coastline damag damaged l to emergency managers and homeowners who have evacuated. the rapid response teams deploy after they passed to survey the waterways to ensure they are free of debris and safe for shipping.

advanced polar orbiting satellites that provide vital microwave data that drives the forecast models used to predict hurricane track and intensity this season the national weather service will update the american model. this will mark the first revolutionary upgrade to the dynamic core indicates it represent the first step in the forecast system to provide the best possible science predictions of the nation. and of course there are hurricane hunters. they collect data from above, around and inside the tropical systems. providing essential input to

improve the track and intensity forecast. collectively, noaa's sophisticated technologies and services enabl that enable the decision makers and the public to take action before, during and after hurricanes increasing resilience in helping build a more weather ready nation. now on to the 2019 atlantic hurricane season outlook. this includes activity in the atlantic ocean, gulf of mexico and caribbean from june 1 to november 30. atmospheric ocean conditions that factored into this outlook include competing signals. on one hand the ongoing activities of the atlantic hurricane season. on the other hand it combination of the temperatures in the tropical atlantic and caribbean combined with a west african monsoon fever increased activities. overall, the atlantic hurricane

season outlook calls for a near-normal season with a 70% chance of mine to 15 named storms with top winds at least 39 miles an hour and of those, four to eight will become hurricanes with top of at least 74 miles an hour and two to four major hurricanes reaching category three, four or five. it's made possible by the work of jerry bell, forecaster at noaa's climate prediction system. his team as well as him are here today to answer any questions you may have about the outlook during the q. and a session. please, keep in mind that this outlook does not suggest how many of the storms strike land

speaking of the weather service, i would like to acknowledge the director of the national weather service who is here today and in addition to the normal duties he's also campaigning to be the next president of the world meteorological organization. i wish them the best of luck and strongest endorsement now a month away from the election in geneva. back to the hurricane outlook to summarize the new normal atlantic season is expected taking great strides to deliver the best forecast to keep you informed ahead of approaching storms. while we cannot prevent the storms we can take action to be prepared for such a severe weather and an act on the communities. i would now like to invite doctor daniel to discuss what people can do this upcoming

season. [applause] it takes one landfalling hurricane to cause great destruction to a community. we need to prepare now. of course if he does state and local and federal partners but that also means you as individuals, families, communities. you need to come together and take action now to protect yourselves, your property and your financial future. there's a few easy steps to take care. build a kit, make sure it has food, water, educations for at least 72 hours.

also realize you need a plan to communicate with your friends and family. it the networks can be down following a disaster. you need to know your route and practice evacuating before the emergency. you also need to follow the advice of local officials. they know best about what you should be doing as a hurricane approaches. to receive the messages you need to make sure you have a battery powered radio and also downloaded the app atms, credit card machines rely on electricity, communications networks both of which could be down following a hurricane. you also need to have insurance, it's up to date up-to-date, sper local insurance agent and make

sure you have flood insurance. it's not included in the home owners policy. you need to request it separately. why must you have flood insurance let's look at hurricane harvey. 2017 extract this and cause mass devastation we are all aware of that. do you know what the financial impact was to the individuals that were uninsured? the uninsured disaster survivor received about $3,000 i gladly put u in the hands of those following that hurricane $3,000 isn't going to make you whole. insurance makes you whole. on average the cost of flood insurance following hurricane harvey wasn't 3,000, but when did 17,000. so, please go to flood smart

.gov and check out insurance options today. i also encourage you to visit for more information on everything i just discussed. thank you very much. [applause] thank you to the speakers and we will now have the two and a q. a portion of the program i would like to welcome jerry to the stage to help address questions and operator, please provide instructions to those that have been dialing in. if you have any questions please speak your name and affiliation before your question. >> have short-term forecasts are

getting more and more accurate given that you are talking about a pretty wide range of the potential number of storms what is its value to the public. we issue the range of activities with a 70% likelihood that we've seen during past years with similar climatic conditions and uncertainties to this year. but given that we issue them with a 70% likelihood that means we expect them to verify about 70% of the time. 2008 and 2009 they had been sustained since we started getting very sophisticated climate models like the global forecast system. we now have significant modeling efforts and dynamics lab.

we verify the ranges and expect to be accurate seven out of ten season, and they are. >> what did you learn from last season and how does that inform the preparation for this season? spin it in terms of the preparation, i would go to not from the meteorology perspective but we also saw two completely different types of impact. it produced the record rainfall throughout the carolinas.

it's a different scenario where it is a very strong story and became a landfall and decimated everything in its path. in that case there was relatively short time to evacuate or finalize the plan so both of these hurricanes highlight the ba them. the types of impact you can see they point to impacting different people in different ways to replace myself, my area, my family could be impacted. >> noaa addressed lawmakers about the spectrum option over the concerns of the potential effect on forecasting capabilities?

>> the concerns would be the out of bounds mission and interference right now the subject matter experts are working with the subject matter experts at the fcc to try to come to an optimal solution where we can have both vi five . deployment as well as accurate forecasts. >> any other questions in the room? >> i just have a quick question i know during the winter there were a few issues but we kind of held it back as far as winter forecasting and now utilizing this for the hurricane modeling

is there anything to work out the kinks. >> there was two different bugs one of the radiation and one in the snow depth accumulation. those have been addressed and we have gone through the testing verification which is in the process right now. we have a date set, mid-june to operationalize assuming we don't discover any more issues. but i'm confident it's going to be more skillful. the testing and verification process on the previous storm season has proven that, so very optimistic we will have an upgraded forecast.

>> 2018 report that was released in 2018 talked about among other things the problem with having the staff dispersed at the beginning of the hurricane so many other disasters. i think it' it says 30% of the f tending to other disasters and there was a conclusion about wanting to try to focus at least it's personal now more on the catastrophic disasters and building up local ability to handle that. as it starts, how many people do you have felt in the field that these other disasters? >> over 50 open disasters right now all over the country. right now where the personnel are staffing those because the lesson learned as you pointed out from the 2017 hurricane

season, we took at least two actions. one is making sure we can rapidly redeployed personnel to other disaster areas. disaster areas that may emerge with no notice. they are not just hurricane. the disaster happened today we are confident we could deploy the resources and personnel as required. as a result of the busy 2017 and 2018 hurricane season, the personnel are pre- deployed to those areas that would be impacted, so in other words we have pre- position unintentionally our personal now to the atlantic and gulf coast that are nearby and wherever a hurricane might strike.

any final questions in the room it will come back afterwards but operator, can you please send the first question and provided the name and affiliation? >> the line is open. >> almost all the other private are calling for more of a below normal season so especially because of el niño. can you explain why you are closer to normal then below normal. as the climate change oriented or is it for the west african mn monsoon, and can you explain how that would affect us? >> there are competing climate

factors competing with el niño is the ongoing pattern we have seen since 1995 in association with the high activity era where the tropical atlantic ocean temperatures are expected to be warmer than average and with that expecting a stronger west african monsoon so that the warmer temperatures they favor more activity. so it's these competing factors. there is some uncertainty based on how strong each of those factors will be. most of the models at this point are predicting a weak el niño with limited impact, and most models at this point are predicting warmer atlantic temperatures but not much more. there's still a lot of activity.

four to eight hurricanes is a lot. in the climate change factor? >> i mentioned the need for her going into the season cellblocks in the conditions over the tropical atlantic. from the major climate patterns committee el niño cycle is a major factor that influences hurricane activity from one year to the next. there is longer-term patterns for the atlantic and the main one is called the atlantic isolation for people who know the sport. it lasts anywhere from 25 to 40 years historically, and the pattern since 1995 has been

produced associated with warmer atlantic temperatures, african monsoon which has really been giving this increased activity since 1995. there is no indication but we are out of this phase so those are the two main climate factors for this year's hurricane outlook. >> the line is now open. >> you addressed the question that i have basically we are still in this active period. do you see any indication at all for the cycle is in any tradition or is this basically impossible to know, one of those fayou are out of it when you are out of it?

>> we are not seeing any activity that we are getting out of this yet. as far as predicting when it will end, there is no way to know. the cycle goes way back and we've seen it back into the late 18 hundreds when we started getting kind of defense ocean data to be able to monitor the patterns. there is no way to know. >> for the official start of the season -- >> we can't hear you very clearly. that didn't help either. >> can we get the next question?

our next question comes from pennsylvania. wine is now open. >> what role does that play in this sector? >> the changes in circulation are associated so wit the part d parcel of the same thing is the deep ocean part of the circulation. various studies are indicating that it may be changing and it

is remaining stronger than average. last year was a very strong west african monsoon and strengthened the season so no, we are not out of this yet. the next question comes from stephanie. >> did your modeling show you had any changes in the level [inaudible] >> we have been seeing a lot of rain and flooding so i just want to check their. >> as far as predicting the streams of the hurricane season, i'm not sure how to really answer that question.

>> your line is open. >> wondering if the main storm we already had his included in that frame should. >> yes it is. if the caller that got cut off for you seeing any pre- activity? >> very rarely what you see a major hurricane in june or july. by far it is august, september and october that is when most of

the major hurricanes form. back to the early part of the season if we do get a storm like the preseason storm or some of these that do form in june or july it's from the frontal boundary or depression and the jet stream they tend to be short-lived, and that's it as we just saw. in contrast during the peak month of the hurricane season, those are the systems that come from the cloud systems moving westward to africa. those are the storms that very often constrain. the early activity is typically not a signal of what to expect for the rest of the hurricane season. >> thank you again for all the questions on the phone. are there any other questions in the room?

>> (202)748-8314 thank you again for joining today. [applause]>> "washington journa"

continues. host: this is chris pope, a senior fellow at the manhattan institute, talking about issues related to health care. guest: thanks for inviting me. host: the manhattan institute, what positioning does it take on issues of health care? with health care, the cost is a big issue and a big