[inaudible conversations] >> ladies and gentlemen, good morning. i'm very sorry for the delay this morning. other news is keeping our moderator busy, but he will be here in five or ten minutes i thought in the interest of time

and because we are on air on c-span we should get moving. i'll be giving some opening remarks. i think we'll get started on some of our opening remarks and then very swiftly alex will be a real start a moderated discussion. but first of all issa, welcome to the middle east institute. thank you ever so much for joining us to this extremely important event. someone who is worked on syria and particularly on idlib nonstop for the last nine years, i can safely say that events like this couldn't come at a more important time. i'm also not aware of any other events like this one happening in washington these days, so i'm extremely glad it's taken place. the american crisis that is developed in northwestern syria in recent months is entirely unprecedented. not just after nine years of war in syria, but in this whole world modern history. and yet despite the sheer enormity of the crisis, the world has really get to do more

than issue public statements of concern. i'm going to keep my opening remarks pretty brief because if i get carried what i'll end up saying everything i i plan to y on the panel. but one thing i do want to sit y from the outset as a grateful i am to have such an esteemed panel of experts and practitioners, all of whom will lend -- you'll see the specialty -- and in valuable perspective to understanding what relates a complex but extraordinarily important issue. first on our far left we have dr. zaher sahloul who is the founder and president of medglobal, and medical in june of that seeks to reduce healthcare disparity by providing free health care to refugees and displaced people. dr. sahloul has just returned from a medical mission inside idlib where he visited humanitarian partners, , met wih recently displaced people in idp camps and treated patient in the largest hospital still standing in idlib.

he shared his experiences in the last few weeks in details of the ongoing crisis with the u.n. secretary-general office, you when ocha and key you member states. dr. sahloul is also a former president of the syrian american medical society, the cofounder of the american relief coalition for syria, and a cofounder of the syria take initiative. he was also awarded the chicago when of the year in 2016 by his medical work. elizabeth tsurkov is a fellow and middle east program at foreign policy research institute. she's a doctoral student in political science at princeton university, and i should add a prolific writer on all things syria. her research is primarily based on an large network of contacts she's cultivated across syria as well as work across the region. she's also research fellow at the forum for regional thinking, a progressive israeli-palestinian think tank based in jerusalem. elizabeth has worked as a

consultant with the international crisis group, the atlantic council, and the european institute for peace, among many other places. she has a decade of experts working with human rights organizations in middle east defending the rights of refugees, migrants, laborers, palestinians and ethnic and religious minorities. alex marquardt will be here shortly is an award-winning national correspondent based on cnn washington bureau focusing on national security issues. alex spent most of the past decade as a foreign correspondent for abc news based in moscow, jerusalem, beirut and london. he spent considerable time on the front lines of wars and uprisings in the middle east. he reported on the refugee and migrant crisis here to cover the of terror attacks in europe but isis. he was among the first correspondence and, as the revolution exploded, and to make many trips in syria to report on the war from both the regime and rebel sites. he was ground in gaza during the wars with israel and he traveled across ukraine as the russian

military invaded. so on behalf of the middle east institute, welcome to soon to be three of you. really looking forward to this important discussion that will follow. the last thing i will say is one final note before we do hand over here, to let you we're all going to be taking westerns, questions for the panelists, and polling questions from all of you in the audience and from live television via the interactive site -- i believed information, yes, is on the screen here. if you go to the website under smartphones or any electronic device and enter the code 622500 you will be able to submit your own questions throughout the event, answer two polls which are go through in a second at anytime during the panel and you can see and upload other peoples questions threat the panel as well. this will essentially allow our

moderator to keep the engage discussion going with all your input throughout the whole event. and i should just add the first poll here is a relatively straightforward one, should the u.s. try to play a role in stopping the violence in idlib? you can vote yes or no. you will see the results change as we go and the second one which am hoping will come because i don't have it in front of me will be similarly straightforward but will be a second one with more answers to the question which will probably give us a bit more of an interesting more complex response. so on that note i will go and sit and take my place on the panel. alex i see has rights we'll be a very shortly and will start going through with elizabeth first. perhaps i will follow on and

then dr. sahloul will conclude. >> so thank you so much -- [inaudible] -- a crucial moment in history of the syrian uprising that turned into civil war, and i think when we reflect back on this time, also in the history of the 21st century this is essentially a humanitarian crisis of extreme proportion. and it actually has the significant potential to get worse. so i wanted to draw our attention to the fact that, first of all we're talking about -- [inaudible] since the start by the regime in

russia and later on iranian forces join as well. were talking over 1 million people flee from their homes towards the border with turkey. those individuals cannot return to their homes. unless cease-fires put in place. these people will not be able to return. we're talking about the start of a protracted displacement crisis, or more correctly, the acceleration of a displacement crisis. essentially most of the population in idlib, population about 3 million people, most of them are now displaced from their homes. they are no longer living in their homes and living alone stretch the land on the border with turkey in camps if they are lucky. and just outside in the cold, under trees, if they cannot even find --

[inaudible] this situation will not improve and last measures are made to secure the area some which people fled to allow people to return. two areas that will not be under regime control because the population -- if they remain, population largely not return, not safe return and, therefore, were talking about a crisis, but these people have no homes to return to. in conversation with people in idlib, i've been speaking to people there for many years. the level of desperation and the genuine belief that they are about to die in mass is very prevalent. this of course has an effect on the ability and willingness of people to resist what is

happening, to resist both in trying to still care for the community and trying to remain resilient and also military resistance. there is a sense that this is futile, but asset actors have basically decided their fate and, therefore, they might as well take up and leave instead of trying to save the town and this is -- [inaudible] even able-bodied men towards displacement camps. this is what is contributing to the rapid advancement of line forces. i think that for people who spend time in idlib as dr. sahloul has people who speak a lot to the population, there's also the sense that this population -- [inaudible] this is a population who even before the court crisis, half of

that were displaced in other areas. so people refuse to live under the assad regime led a robust to these areas -- who were bused to these areas. enormous bubbles of violence with institutions, with mutual support. this is breaking apart. people are being pushed to the edge where they can no longer take care of their community. they are now focusing on new survival, of survival for themselves come to feed themselves and their children. the humanitarian crisis -- this society, this very, very strong resilience is not breaking apart. there are still people for trying to help others. there are major ngo workers but there is this sense that everything is just falling apart.

i think such a strong population is now -- just goes to show -- through airstrikes, the mass displacement. people also know what happens to people who remain behind in the towns that are captured. the few who did so, a tiny, tiny minority, images have emerged of people being executed or people being tortured after being captured and this is something that is creating a real sense of terror among the population. they expect the regime will continue to advance towards them. space is limited. there's an honest belief that they are about to die, and when i talk to people and i try to understand what will they do,

what are they thinking and doing next, when it gets really bad will storm the turkish border which is the main turkish concern. while others are just saying this is our fate and this is what will happen to them and we expect that you should expect it. this -- were talking about population most of the population our children, 51%, many women there. [inaudible] thank you. >> thank you, elizabeth. >> i'm going to start with a quiz. if you're used to -- the man, family or someone with their children about something. who said we are watching -- the

war in syria and has little to do with us? we should be using our diplomatic power to insist on a cease-fire and negotiated peace, instead based on some measures of -- accountability and the conditions for that concern of refugees. who said that? i'll help you. it's not president trump. [inaudible] angelina jolie yesterday in an op-ed. what we are witnessing with the syrian crisis is the lack of leadership in the u.s. especially, and in the u.n. in general. that's why we have an endless nine-year of war and suffering in syria. in order to attract the attention of the media or

policymakers it's hard to be, and president. if we had only a few thousand people displaced, no one will say anything. it has to be 900,000 people in order for the media to respond to the syrian crisis. a couple of days ago cnn contacted me because they want to have an interview about idlib. then they called and they said sorry, we have breaking news. i said was the breaking news? they said the previous governor of illinois rod blagojevich will be released and this is more important for us. so i was thinking that you have one corrupt governor who is in prison and this this is a big s now compared to 900,000 people who are suffering in idlib, who have no shelter. some of them are freezing to death, and the media cannot basically cover these two

stories requires immediate important? because when the media cover a story -- when the media decides that 900,000 humans in idlib should be perceived as humans like us, then our policymakers should pay attention to them. our policymaker will pay attention. this this is not been happeningn syria for the past nine years except when yet short windows of opportunity. i came from idlib a couple of months ago. i'm from chicago so i been going back and forth in syria for the past nine years. mostly ignored in syria but also i other disaster regions including yemen, gaza, puerto rico, columbia to up with a venezuelan migrator crisis a refugee crisis. my organization provides

healthcare health care to the refugees who are displaced. but what i see in idlib is something that have seen in any other disaster region. i'm not saying that because i'm a region from syria. i'm saying as as a humanitarias a physician. a few examples of people i met, -- that elizabeth has been talking about. i met with a neurosurgeon from my city originally used to come to the united states every year for courses and then applied -- back in syria picky was the best neurosurgeon in syria. when the uprising started heat-treated some of the victims of the snipers. for those who do not understand the steering crisis, when the uprising started by demonstrations, peaceful demonstrations by young people mostly in the street, asking for

political reform. the regime used several tactics to prevent what happened in egypt and tunisia where you have a change in the regime, and i think you been in egypt and you witnessed it. so the used snipers to shoot at demonstrators. peaceful demonstrators in many cities. when doctors treated the victims of snipers, then doctors were put in prison. they were tortured. some of them were tortured to death. they also found the peaceful activists that are leading these demonstration by kelly, by torture, by putting in prison. they also -- trained and recruited to fight on american troops in iraq and basically this is predictable what they will do. we know jihadists will start carrying arms and posing the uprising to transfer from peaceful to sectarian and so

forth. and he allowed into felt in many areas in syria. while targeting the moderates opposition in many other areas. he knew that he had the form isis. [inaudible] to in this uprising by using -- more than 200 times. by targeting hospitals and doctors, according to physicians for human rights, more than 580 hospitals were bombed in syria mostly by the assad regime in russia. more than 900 and doctors and nurses were killed in syria while they are discharging the humanitarian duty. the neurosurgeon was part of the doctors who -- his family was wiped out by the regime. his brother was imprisoned and he was surrounded, and then when

the city was controlled by the regime then he was displaced but he continued to perform narrow surgery on the victims of war and also community for brain tumors and stroke and things like that. when the north was overrun by the regime then he moved to idlib and how it ended up in one of the largest hospitals. he continues to go to the hospitals knowing that he may not return to his family alive every day. these heroes should be our heroes here and the physician and nurse and healthcare worker in the united states of america should be aware of these heroes. knowing that they may be killed while treating their community. when we talk about idlib, the main reason -- the fact of hospitals and clinics that are treating the children of the

families and the community is there, people told me in aleppo and idlib that they will take the chance of living in neighborhoods and cities that -- but when you do not have a physician that will treat your kid when the have fever, then they will leave. when were talking about half of the population of syria displaced, half of the population, 12 million people in syria displaced living inside and outside. the main reason is that's what stunned by the assad regime, by the iranians and russians to bomb hospitals, to destroy hospitals, to bomb schools and destroy schools and bond markets and destroy markets. the infrastructure. that is leading to the displacement of the population and show it on social meeting the extreme brutality that will happen to people who are left behind. so now in social media are seeing these videos of

denigration of tombs by assad regime militia. that means -- even your death will not be spared by our brutality. if you move out to the east area, you are going to have the same fate. i'm going to speak also about the children of syria. this is the drawing i brought with me from idlib with children of one of the refugee camp, or displaced camps. this is a drawing that was drawn with mud because it's very muddy. there was flooding and that can't and we had to wear long boots to navigate the mud. this child, she is 12 years old. she was displaced with her family seven times, seven times. in many of the wars you have one

or two displacement. in syria u.s. seven, eight, can displacement of the families and the population going north or going to idlib, now there's no more idlib. these people do not have any other place to go. the 3 million people in idlib are trapped. they cannot go to any of the place, so some of think they can escape to lebanon or iraq, they cannot flee. it is landlocked. the fate these 3 million people are living -- over and over. she told me she wants to be a doctor. actually most of the children that i've seen in the camp they wanted to be doctors and teachers and architect. our government here can't help them be a source revealing. not only in syria but for the whole middle east. and being a a source of stabily and chaos and extremism. if we just focus on syria, pay

attention to it, because syria is important. not because the iphone was invented by a syrian american but because because of the geography of syria. that's the revenge of geography. because of location of syria, the countries that are around three, the fact that many -- may go through syria, or many things common history of syria, it is very important, one of the princeton professors that you go to princeton right now, , in 196 said syria is microscopic in size, that god makes -- [inaudible] what happens in syria is affecting as in the united states. the large refugee crisis in 2015 when i was invited to the middle east at that time, 2016, created at the refugee sentiment, the rise of hate groups, the

destabilization of europe, , the brexit and election of certain politicians here in the united states. so we have to care about syria because we care about us here. [applause] >> i kind of feel, i guess that would make sense for me to talk first what i was going to talk a little bit more about the light of the land and where we are strategically, but it was just follow on from the very powerful human stories and perspectives is a tough one. i think we've heard of it from elizabeth already, over one main people, the u.n. says 900,000 but i think those numbers are counted, over 1 million -- >> just started december 1. >> so overly people have been displaced just since one december. we're talking we're talking less than three months.

we are already about 850,000 people displaced in north of idlib. so the population along the northern strip of idlib along the turkish border is closed to if not reached 2 million people. that is a massive density of population. idp camps are full. they were for a long time back. there are simply no tents left. people are sleeping in the fields, at least i think eight children have frozen to death in the last two weeks because they had been forced to flee them and with no shelter. so when you went officials and we discussed the puck up the something unprecedented, it truly is unprecedented. the unit itself admitted two days ago i think in the security council they vastly underestimated the scale of funding and equipment, and then doubled that financial from international community to deal with it. beyond that the united nations

is stuck. there was a french proposal the last few days to issue a statement come just the statement calling this an emergency and called on the international community to do what he can to cease hostilities, , and the russians the coded that. just a statement. so the prospect for meaningful u.n. action beyond rhetorical statements is a tough one to consider right now. in new york there's great pressure on the u.n. secretary-general to do something more. he's been virtually silent on this issue because they have other concerns in syria, primarily accessed in the regime area of damascus and it's built to operate in regime controlled territories. there is a think the music security conference which is the week or so ago. the theme of the conference was west looseness, which they defined as the western world having forgotten and lost touch with what it means to be an important player company for player in the world.

i think the crisis in idlib and almost total silence from the western world on the issue is a perfect calculation of what the munich security form called west looseness. there really is no urgency or even attention from our policy makers. military on the ground just to give you all a clear picture of where things have proceeded. in the last ten months since april last year when they really search, roughly 35-40% of north western opposition control syria has been captured by pro-regime forces. so nearly a year and half about one the way there. those lines have moved faster on the map over time than the did early on and to think elizabeth makes an important point that the capacity to continue to defend it to all this military campaign is a limiting as time goes by.

the key regime objective was to take control of the highway which runs if you can picture -- picture map of syria from aleppo all the way south to damascus. that objective is complete. the secondary objective i believe would be to capture the other highway which splits idlib and have a goes across the coastal heartland of the regime. we are not there yet, but the key dynamic we have to be considering right now especially in the last week or so is turkey. turkey has had a military presence in idlib for a long while. they established what they called observation posts. they had explicit agreement with russia come with a scene regime and event to establish those observation posts. there are 31 now in idlib. 13 have been completely surrounded effectively besieged by the regime as it marched northward, so nearly half of those post have fallen.

effectively without a fight. that raises all kinds of questions about why turkey hasn't and more until now to withstand the pressure on an issue which frankly i think is existential for president erdogan. whether you look at his allies in parliament or his opposition in parliament, there is huge pressure to avoid a single syrian refugee entering turkey from idlib or any other area of the northern border. the prospect of 2 million refugees, displaced people sat on the border, if they were to cross or kill erdogan reelection chances, the reversibly come in my opinion. beyond that, if idlib or default with turkey would be cumulative we can see the dominoes start to fall and turkey's military presence and the rest of northern syria begin to erode. so the stakes for turkey couldn't be much more significant and yet the push back has been frankly pretty limited so far. we saw a minor military offensive by turkish soldiers for the first time yesterday

morning but within hours they were pushed back by russian airstrikes. that brings in another interesting new element which is russia and turkey are increasingly coming to blows. if the turkish military has fired manpads, shoulder launched surface-to-air missiles and russian jets as of the last 24 hours. no insignificant development. they have provided their opposition proxy, not jihadist groups but the opposition groups with far more advanced weapon systems, armored vehicles than they have done in this area of the country at any time over the last nine years. they have deployed attacks and idlib, multiple rocket launcher systems. allegedly a highly sophisticated electronic interference system which was theoretically target russian jets and syrian jets at some point, yet even despite all of that we have continued to see the regime advance. my big question is what's

coming? erdogan has issued an end of february deadline for the regime to withdraw the recapture territory. clearly not going to do that but i will expect or i would expect the truth to pushed back in a much more seriously at some point by the end of the month. so the big question is what happens then? how significant is it? does it work or does it not? if then, we really look at catastrophic continued regime advance all the way to the north border. i have loads of more things to say but i will end there. >> let's get into. i want to apologize for showing up late. i covet the intelligence community for cnn and does you might understand in the past 24 hours this been a bit of turnover, , shall we say, ice levels of the intel community. i say that not to .1 tablet but also also to speak to the point about there's so much going on in this country and in the news that is drowned out what is going on in syria.

that's not an excuse but there is a terminus amount of people in washington and in the u.s. cnn has been a pretty good job of covering the crisis in the the. my colleague has done some terrific reporting out of there. but the fact is this is an unprecedented crisis that isn't getting enough attention. elizabeth, you laid that out very clearly. i think for people who watch and been observing and even reported on the syrian crisis, we are used to these superlatives. we are used to shocking figures. we are used to horrific stories and photos. if you wouldn't mind if you could just please put this in a bit more context of why this is that unique moment. speak a little to what charles mentioned there about the bottleneck of why aid isn't reaching these people. it just seems a logical, and yet even things like rhetorical

statements. >> we are talking about unprecedented crisis with the u.n. and other ngos completely unprepared. basically, when i talk to friends who work and ngos inside idlib, they said the first 100,000 we can handle. second we can't can have it ate point they are just gone. we saw it, there's committees themselves, you know, parts of the population is able to afford to rent cars, flea towards the border and with the place with relatives or stay with relatives or rent a place and live in it. but then the force of the poor, you know, most of it lives population is extremely poor. they are willing and able to cope with this crisis in any way. we end up having situations in which the regime is advancing

rapidly and people do not want to stay because they expect to be captured and executed. or taken to prison on all know what happens in regime prisons. the use characterize what is happening there is extermination. so people want to flee. even one who have no connection to any political activity, even i know people who are employed by syrian government. they continue to receive a salary from damascus, , yet they are afraid of staying under the control of the regime of remain in the towns and falling in regime hands. because they see what happens to people stay behind. they get executed. so, therefore, the population wants to flee but they cannot afford to flee so end up having situations in which ngos, and do -- within the ngos run out of cars, out of buses, so people start walking on foot. people are playing as a poor talk about the war in the

previous country. no vehicles around, and families are forced to walk for seven, eight hours towards the nearest town and seek shelter there because there are so afraid of being captured alive. this is something that hasn't happened before. we've never seen, we've never seen a situation in which a person cannot even find a tent. i can't does not offer protection from the cold because the heating inside the tent but at least it protects them from the rain. we are having so many people living in fields. we are seeing more, talking to doctors, i'm sure you've heard this, in many cases you need to amputate body parts due to frostbite. this is something that is, even if there is no willingness on the part of the west to do anything to long-term create some kind of a cease-fire, prevent these people from eventually being captured by the regime and killed or being

forced to flee into turkey, breaking the board and fleeing into turkey, even the humanitarian assistance is insufficient. these children were freezing to death or losing limbs, is simply due to lack of aid. this inability to provide timely aid is definitely something that is very flexible and i would argue also the larger political question of why these people are flying and preventing this continuing plight is also fixable. if russia and the regime were to believe that their jets that are bombing, bombing civilians and are displacing them, and this immense firepower that is allowing the regime forces to advance on the ground, if they knew they have a very high likelihood of being shot down, then i believe they would stop doing so. right now russia and turkey are kind of facing each other, and

the balance of power does not favor any site significantly. but turkey should not be stand alone in this situation. turkey made many mistakes in syria and it led to its own isolation in a way, the route very mistaken policies in the world but at the end of the day currently turkey is the only force that is trying to prevent, thus far unsuccessfully, the regime from continuing to advance and displaced more and more people towards the border. turkey has not allowed to cross, have to pay for smuggled to get across. people are stuck here they are unable to cross into turkey, but if the regime continues to advance, reach forces to the border and people are faced with the possibility of being shot by turkish border police or being captured alive by the regime, i think their calculations will

change, particularly keep in mind the rebel groups inside idlib have the capability to take down -- they have tanks and if they're desperate enough, families are desperate enough that they believe they will now think large-scale massacre. this is a real prospect and this is what is triggering turkish, increasing its presence in idlib in attempts to hold idlib. >> elizabeth mentioned that u.n. -- [inaudible] large number of displaced people. actually the u.n. role for at least one year and half that this will be happening, and also based on that they are standing between turkey and iran and russia and that's understanding. the u.n. ocha office will coordinate the cross-border relief from turkey to northern syria in idlib, warned one year

and half ago that this may be happening and you have to do with one, , 1.5 million people o we displaced. u.n. knowing this will happen -- caught by surprise and the only had $30 million for emergency funds to do with this sheer number of people who are displaced. even since -- a report on cnn yesterday or day before, going into these irregular or makeshift camps, right, the reason that you have more than 600 makeshift camps come in idlib you 150 camps, small province that has 1250 camps can some of them have 500 tents. most of them are makeshift camps that did not have the u.n. can't because the u.n. has made it very difficult and complicated to get even tents inside syria.

it makes a very complicated. the u.n. is not caught by surprise. turkey was not caught by surprise because it knew that was happening, and the international committee was not caught by surprise because they know that's happening. the main reason is because syria is not a priority to all these parties. the millions of syrians are not priority. >> turn your microphone on. >> can you speak more to that? what was the failure at least when it comes to united nations to respond in a timely manner? >> when you have a crisis like this, like what's happening in idlib or see over the past nine years, or you have millions of people who are affected, a million human beings, these are not cats or dogs from your displaced seven and eight times, you would expect u.n. observers to be there.

there is no u.n. observers. the worst catastrophe of the 21st century and actually in the 20th century. there is no u.n. observer in idlib. they u.n. secretary-general should be in idlib right now. he went to the bahamas. he went to mozambique following the last hurricane. he went to libya. why he's not even contemplating visiting idlib? and he has all sorts to be there are standing on the border are going into idlib and i can guarantee you the syrian children and the caps will protect him. the syrian children in the camps can distinguish the sound of bomb or missile or the sound of shelling. although they are not able to go to school because most of the schools were destroyed. so why is he not their quest why is he not shaming russia and shaming china for not doing anything about the bombing of civilians in syria? we've been having 67 hospitals

in idlib being bombed by the russian origin and the syrian regime and nothing is happen. the board of inquiry is making these investigation about bombing a secret. the board of regents itself is trying to keep these results of investigation secret, not making it public because it does not want to kind of shame russia in public because he cares more about reelection than solving the worst crisis that we're going through. >> tells one of the things that doctors on the ground in idlib are telling you. >> they are telling me that they are there for their community and they're their telling me ts their humanitarian duty. their telling me their shortage of iv fluids, of antibiotics. by the way, , with its last wita displacement with a regime that controls northwest of aleppo were yet most reciprocal production, you would expect now to have a real short of medication for chronic diseases, diabetes, hypertension, copd, asthma, cancer.

and by the way we think in crisis like this that most people will die from bombs or die from infectious diseases, but actually most people die because of chronic diseases, because a heart attack in the middle of the night and you cannot go to the hospital. because a pregnant lady is bleeding and you can go to the hospital because there's no doctor to treat your child. that's what happened in syria. now with the lack of shortage for medication for chronic disease and you'd expect even more. doctors also don't have salaries. salaries are sobered by ngos. ngos have massive less fundinge have to deal with shelter and evacuation and have to deal with the heating. idlib is not tropical area. people who think that syria is topical, it is not. it is very cold the winter is harsh. a child who is four months old

-- froze to death. it's very cold. when i was in idlib i had to wear multilayer stews to stay warm just inside the car which is easy. it's very cold and people are going into extreme things to keep their kids warm in the tent. they are burning all of pets. in idlib your 14 million all of trees. it's a source of olive oil which is the best thing in the middle east, the best olive oil in syria is in idlib. they are burning shoes. they are burning plastic bags. they are burning garbage to keep their children warm. in spite of that your people who are freezing to death because it is harsh. >> bring it into the tents. >> carbon monoxide, absolutely. >> charles, let's talk about that border with turkey which

turkey shut down several years ago. that i would have 3.5 million refugees in the country. they are not letting anybody across, and at the same time we have erdogan making real noises about the possible of the significant military incursion. turkish troops already inside syria and to talk about some of the fighting that takes place between the two sides. what is the risk of this escalating significantly between the turks and the syrians and the russians? >> i think it depends how much of a risk the turks are willing to take. i mean, as they say my perception of this is it's an existential issue for erdogan himself and his political future, for the akp parties future. and if they willing to take enough of a risk than yes, that is a risk of escalation. i think what surprised me is i think we all of the turkish russian relationship -- [inaudible] and it's about much more than

idlib. the turks and the russians just cite a huge gas pipeline to which neither side wanted to see eroded because of an issue like idlib from which to put in very cold terms isn't necessarily the biggest issue on either russia or turkey's agenda when it comes to their bilateral relationship. what i would be surprised how hd russia has played this. my so to understand the situation six months ago is what would've already come to a compromise solution whereby the russians and turks would draw a line on the map and say that's it, no movement. it would have been a terrible humanitarian situation but we wouldn't be in place when we would see the light continue to move north like we are now. so i think all of that together does risk escalation. i think turkey has no choice but to gradually escalate, which is undoubtedly what we've seen over the last week or so. they have probably nearly tripled the amount of soldiers just in idlib which is is 3% of

syrian territory that all of the united states troops in all eastern syria. their scale of the deployed military equipment, heavy weapons far outweighs anything the united states has in syria. it's 3% of the met. if turkey would want to get serious about this they could do it very swiftly. the key question in peoples minds was, the key assumption would be turkey might do that but we do every everything to a war with russia or a fight with the russians. that calculation has clearly changed with firing shoulder launched missiles at city aircraft -- russian aircraft yesterday is a big game changer in terms of the calculus that is being placed into all of this. really i think we're getting again with an unprecedented situation, the largest standing army in nato with highly sophisticated military equipment stuck in incredibly implicated war zone here facing off against

the russians who are playing hard-nosed as you could possibly be and begin the syrian regime which will never compromise willingly on anything. as they say, given the stakes for turkey in particular, i just fight hard to imagine they would. the question which i can't answer is if and when it does happen, how with the russians respond? it will not want to be humiliated on the world stage. they have a very troublesome outlet in the syrian regime who consistently has compromise on the thing. we are all hoping for some form of compromise. it's not going to be a good one for the 3.5 million people stuck in idlib my only hope is it will be less bad than where we are headed now, which is as bad as soviets you can get. >> how much you think u.s. withdrawal has exacerbated the crisis? >> i mean, the u.s. doesn't have a great deal of influence in western syria anymore. it ceded that three years ago when donald trump decided to cut off all support to our four or

five-year-old partners in the -- that seated our credibility and also our influence. since then the russian government has effectively lock blocked percentile of the northwestern airspace with three small strike exceptions in the last three years my count. and so yes, there's a sense to which there is an understanding, whether it's in moscow or ankara damascus or tehran that use is we, fragile and has a president who doesn't give a you know what about syria. and to think that has emboldened all of those players to play hard against the more cold-blooded about the way to deal with these issues, including turkey but quite frankly when it comes to the russians being involved they do control the airspace, the s-400 is not to be messed with.

that is an added disadvantage for turkey. turkey has to maneuver a a very complicated environment to do what we are all i think from a community perspective hoping it will do, which is force a stalemate or a cease-fire. but the risks are incredible come much more significant i think then any geopolitical crisis we've seen in syria over the last nine years. .. want to see and with the international community be willing to talk? >> they are definitely not --

the jihadist group or is law must group that is largely the dominant power on the ground. the support was site limited before and now with military losses and the widespread belief, i think it is a conspiracy theory but the believe that they are fending off territory and there is a secret russian field. therefore, even more of the support they once enjoyed. particularly even more radical g hardy faction, they have lost so much manpower. it is just astounding.

they've lost hundreds of fighters over the past -- and the start of the offensive. they are military weaker i think the only alternative right now is turkish control and we see turkey has 16,000 troops inside -- by the level of military preparedness - turkey has no interest in fighting a war with hds. it would be vulnerable to attack and it encourages cooperation. hds helped isis cells -- tried to capture and assassinate him. i don't think turkey is

interested in launching such a conflict. with engagement and pressure, the drug area collapses and should expect this. with his leverage, turkey has the ability, not in this case but to significantly instruct or influence what hds chooses to do. those have knocked out repeatedly most leadership to hold on. they see it as governance of this territory, they abandoned

regime change and liberating damascus etc.. it is important to hang on to the staircase. hds is more than previously to engage with westerners and outsiders. last week, the director for media insisted on having his name mentioned in an article even after i pulled them and citizenship and previously, they got fired because they mentioned the same article. they are definitely shifting in their conduct and are interested in engagement. at the same time they hold onto power and this support means the population is highly authoritarian conduct. >> i think i will try to

envision the least bad scenario on the table. you start to see something which is some kind of established status quo which is again from a humanitarian perspective. there's a reason you call it the gaza scenario, not just because you have an area that is densely populated but also because of who will govern it. if govern is the right term. i think turkey knows that if you look at the recent military deployment, clearly trying to draw a red line on the map to indicate that they may be willing to agree on that,

leaving the northern half hds controlled. turkey would have no option but the salvation government to assume the mantle of ruling that territory with or without turkish troops on the ground. my understanding of turkish policy is hds is a threat. they have established themselves as the only organization, right or wrong, capable of using an asset to keep the internal dynamics more stable than their opposition rivals have in the past. i could imagine therefore in the long-term turkey would seek to use its leverage to negotiate a power-sharing arrangement. the only other option would be the turkish message would be if you want to be the only ruler, you know what is going to

happen. the russians and regime will never accept that as the long-term status quo. how to share power with other civilian and actors under heavy turkish control or else. i don't know if we are going to get there but in all the feasible scenarios, that is the least bad one. the reason hds is an interesting component is they have seen this coming for a long time. they have been engaged in a determined pr effort. they have been reaching out to both of us and many others in hopes of getting westerners, to give them a chance to present this new face they are trying to send to the world for precisely this reason. at this point the international community will establish ats with this kind of scenario as

better than seeing all of northwestern syria concord and smashed into the earth. whether or not that will work, the international crisis group visited the leader and visited him for four hours. it is paid off a great deal right now but exists for a reason. >> can you try to answer that question? >> the model will not work. >> when i spoke with people on the ground, it has power. and the fact -- i will not think of it is northeast, and

this is for the other part, many syrians don't think syria is one country and there should be a end of this crisis going through the security council resolution which is the road to peace and national reconciliation, and reconstruction and without that, what is working out for the long-term.

>> in 2013, i had a meeting with president obama in the white house outside the massacre. and gave him a letter on behalf of of the syrian american doctor. i believe your legacy will be determined in by what you do in syria. >> there are other things. and what he did not do, the legacy of donald trump would be determined and shaped by what he does and does not do, and the debate around the democratic candidate and one question about syria and it is important to know who is the president of mexico but also

important - i think other media outlets should ask if this presents the worst humanitarian crisis, and our candidate should tweet about this. they tweeted about pete buttigieg, how come - democratic candidates for the president, not talking about that. >> i completely agree. it is the best alternative and it is important to understand - this is a better alternative,

under trump's watch. and you're absolutely right, by what he has done in syria and obama administration officials respect and say it was a mistake to draw a line in the sand. killed over 1400 people not to react in any way. and and and mass slaughter happened in our watch. it happened on our watch and they knew it was coming.

it was evident the regime would try to conquer it. we issued statements, made some sweets and did not halt this when we had the opportunity. >> important that the regime complete this takeover when you look at the kurdish area in the northeast, outside regime control. town.is it for bashar al-assad to take it back? >> in logical terms it is not all that important. from bashar al-assad's point of view in principle terms the most important thing, as the sovereign president of syria i have the right to retake every region and everything he has done in the last nine years is to realize that at any cost to

cleanse the country as he has said and that is what we are seeing, the same tactics being developed everywhere else. hit the market, hospitals, the schools, no other choice but to continue to flee. the reason it is unprecedented is every other place, no weather where it is or southern syria they always had an out. always somewhere else to flee to and there is a lockdown border with turkey and that is why it is so unprecedented. more broadly speaking, another relative the conversation, from a strategic perspective it is extraordinarily stretched, they have taken huge casualties, 600 fighters died in the last couple months.

a high number of senior officers more than losing foot soldiers. there is a question how long the regime can sustain the intensity of the campaign, putting aside all of this from the diplomatic equation and putting aside the military dynamic, the regime has manpower for the last year and a half to contain any resource, southern syria was reconciled, meant to be the perfect example of reconciliation in syria from a russian perspective and in 18 months since, the regime has been in capable of restoring any services in the south, crowdsourcing on the internet for funds in their villages and towns. beyond that, the russians have

been capable of deploying over 100 military police and what is the result? 320 attacks in the last year, with instability in the next year or two and only because the regime doesn't have the capacity to rule over the territories and control the government territory it is retaking and to expand these resources for a tiny 3% of the map in a situation where at great expense it is asked extremely stupid but it tells you about the regime's mentality. it doesn't tell you about the face of people that reassert control over. reasserting control on the map,

and there was nothing you could do about that. that is driving it. >> the thinking of the regime, being an older classmate, a way of understanding his thinking, he mentioned a few things. he is a doctor. he says there are millions of germs that need to be cleansed. when we are talking 6.5 million refugees, these are people they need to be cleansed and depopulated. many of the areas that qualify with control of the regime, people who were displaced from them were not allowed to go back.

only a few people -- this was strategic and tactical to an area that is considered an antagonist to the regime, even before bashar al-assad has taken revenge. you have blood on his hands doesn't mean the murderer, an area that is part of the disease that is infected. a couple of days ago, he made a speech in which he declared victory because he pledged the military as part of syria so this will continue unless he is pressured to accept certain terms. >> one of the major debates is what to do with foreign fighters.

that really came up when the first turkish incursion happened in northeastern syria with the talk about people being held by the kurds. i want to get to another audience question, broadly speaking what treatment do you propose for the thousands who were fighting broadly in the northern part of syria? >> it is appointed establish between the northeast and northwest. in the northeast they are also, their relatives, most in the camp, they have the responsibility to repatriate individuals, the majority our children. with regards to the men, there is a proposal by the administration to put them on

trial in the northeast and they will serve their sentence in the west, legally tricky solutions because many do not have the largest for a long time because there is no evidence of their crimes and difficult to collect. with regards to the situation in the northeast there are foreign fighters, a large contingent are muslim from china. we know what happens to muslims. basically mass execution in camp. the number operating - quite small. because we saw the major split that occurs in the islamic

state, isis basically saw most foreigners join isis, hds largely being syria. there are some more fighters there. without any foreign soil, the small number that are perceived to be a threat have been assassinated by missiles. i think this is probably the way to go. can be assassinated but overall the foreign fighters who are there, are small and decreasing rapidly. these units, these factions, there has been concentration in

the latest offense of. earlier this week an entire is back -- is back -- was destroyed. if they start watching something else, the us comes in. assuming they -- that seems to be the solution. you shouldn't let hundreds of foreign fighters, maybe thousands but in the low thousands from the fact that there are 3 million civilians there, should not pay the price for having them come into the area by getting bombed and displaced. >> i want to mention something about these questions.

they are very important but when the media focus on these issues, the fact that you have hundreds of terrorists in some areas and people justify in their minds intentionally or unintentionally to let the other 3 million exterminate, and unconscious thing because it is the war against terrorism. when you focus on the few and forget 3.5 million people, that is what people think -- been in place, you have a president of the united nations, we look at it logically, defending the rights of these people in yemen or other places but do not achieve the same ports and fixated on the president, a few extremists.

>> as is we assad regime. >> the russian ambassador a couple years ago, i was showing him pictures of the reform at that time and where a woman, wore conservative dressing and he jobs and had shown him pictures and he looked at pictures of the woman and said these are isis. in their mind and everyone in aleppo is isis but they don't see, the new york times, they see that so that is their formation. >> if i may, to reiterate that, extremely important point. just yesterday a spokesman for inherent resolve, the us coalition to fight isis, interview with sky news in

which he parroted the assad regime's talking points. he was asked by the interviewer why it is important and his answer was if it is controlled by terrorists, what we are seeing now, mass civilian slaughter, so long as terrorists continue to control, we will see human suffering and humanitarian crisis. that is the perfect encapsulation of how to get the 3.5 million people and think only of the 3 or 400, very easy to deal with in comparison. >> from james jeffrey -- >> we are not. there is clearly a division but the fact that a spokesman want to be coached before hand in how to deal with an interview said something you literally could have copied and pasted from syrian state media is a

damaging thing. it is covered all across russian and uranian media that they justify the continued campaign. there has to be context and broader understanding. that - my gut tells me to look at the bad guys, but having followed syria for nine years i know full well the situation is more complicated and the priorities are totally different. conducting a campaign like this, ironically, will strengthen the ideal. this gives a new briefing force for the extremist ideology that has always said the world will give up on you, we are your only protector, the west doesn't care about your lives

and eventually this eventuality will happen. to speak in that way and see this carry-on is as bad as we could be. pr policy, strategy, etc.. >> hts, for all their faults, are focusing a situation in which the regime and russia take over. they will kill a lot of acs fighters and civilians but some of them will survive and will transform from an entity which is in charge of governing its territory, quite a problematic matter but governing the territory and fixing roads, trying to provide the needs of millions of people they will have none of those responsible he said revert to an insurgency, the isis

insurgency, even from a counterterrorism perspective this kind of incursion to areas controlled by hds which wants to be left alone, there was a start to the offensive, new operations the on the line, it was often the response to the regime. if left alone they will not launch attacks whereas going in and destroying everything and killing civilians and distributing them are cross syria into turkey, counterterrorism perspective does not make sense. >> we can start wrapping up. >> well, then. i want to follow up on the us perspective given where we are in washington and what you were saying about pete buttigieg

being the only one talking about this, foreign-policy was not something that was raised at all. james jeffries, former ambassador, special representative for syria. to what extent do you think he has a loud voice in this administration? to what extent do you think the issue is breaking through to the highest level? >> i have great respect for ambassador jeffrey. he has put more energy into this role than any of his predecessors have for the last five years. a clear determination to uphold the principles the us embraced very early on. he has -- i don't want to speak to him but he has one big challenge which is the president of the united states doesn't really have a foreign policy and doesn't really know

syria exists unless he potentially sees it on fox news in the morning. what we have seen primarily since ambassador jeffrey took on his role, he has done the right things, put energy into us policy on syria and 2 or 3 times, destroyed all the progress he made militarily. and jim has had to start again. ambassador jeffrey traveled to ankara with the support of mike pompeo. he did in my view all of the right things which was to let nato support turkey, to encourage turkey to assert itself more strongly and say you have our support as the united states and nato and then that night, this is the most telling thing, the national security adviser went on tv and

said the united states is not going to do anything about it. we don't have any resources to do this, pulling the rug from under ambassador jeffries's feet as he was still in and cara trying to negotiate to encourage them to do more and that continues to be the problem obama and his administration, there was a process, took the wrong judgments. this administration, there is no process, no structure. the state department has a good team, highly qualified team that knows the issue but they do not have the backing of the white house and that is a real shame because it has set back what has been some progress in the last three years over and over and over again. >> the best analysis which i agree with is the fact that

even though i disagree with many aspects of the policy of donald trump in syria, particularly closing our border, the syrian refugees which i believe is shameful that we tolerated it in the muslim ban in the last year we had only a handful of syrian refugees compared to 10,000 in 2015, or 2016 and this is something that has an effect on the country, all of our values our country is based on. we are a country based on values and principles that should not be difference whether we have donald trump as president or president obama as a president but donald trump did a few things supported by the public and the united states whether democrat or republican.

with the use of chemical weapons, punish the regime for its views like that is something people supported. talking about children suffocated in the chemical weapon attack he said these are beautiful children, he cares about syrian children. syrian children are freezing to death. the state department trying to do the same thing and donald trump, for those - show him the pictures of syrian children freezing to death and tell him do something to prove you have the upper hand in syria. right now cnn broke the news about russia trying to interfere with our election in

2020 supporting donald trump and he disagrees publicly on this issue. doesn't have the upper hand in the war but vladimir putin to the war and donald trump can make a difference in syria and prove he has the upper hand. >> if we are talking about the dynamics of the trump administration the top middle east official on the national security council was removed and moved over to do energy so there is no senior director. why don't we finish where we started on the humanitarian crisis. if i could ask each of you if there is a singular thing that the us and international community can do to alleviate the suffering of 1 million people who have been displaced

and many more, what would it be? >> we can talk about money. president obama used to pledge millions of dollars to deal with the syrian crisis and other countries because the leader of certain moral things including sectarian assistance in syria or other places, donald trump pledged supporting 900,000 people in syria and other countries especially in the region that he is friends with in saudi arabia and kuwait, supporting northwest syria a few months ago. they could follow his lead, that is the first thing but more important than this, our mandate is to care about syria not because they are special but because they are like us

and a dream like us. i mentioned the story -- they wanted to be doctors, architects and we can give them the chance to be doctors and architects in syria if we care about them like we care about our children. >> i think money is needed and will help them. but the current situation is untenable and it is becoming a whole defense for people who are not able to finance modeling into turkey or smuggle themselves into turkey or they are too scared to live in the regime control and that is the overwhelming majority of the population.

this is a situation that cannot continue to exist. basically a situation that is way worse in terms of the humanitarian implications of it. the first priority is it is more important than money so people stop seeing that people are able to return to their homes. long-term is not a solution and there are people who live in tents. this is not something -- at the least the current line of the conflict needs to destabilize and put in place and have the ability to threaten regime in russia if they continue carry out strikes, in such a scenario it is not required boots on the ground or any significant

intervention. a cease-fire, turkey will have the leverage to get troops on the ground. at least along the current time and allow people to return to their homes and towns that are not in regime control but are empty. all these towns are empty because the publishing except regimes, they give them the opportunity to kill them in their homes. they fled already. people will be able to return and live in their homes and work their fields and sustains themselves without having to defend on an international basis and in the long run we need a solution for syria. to return to their homes you mentioned the children from -- this area is under regime control. to live under the regime's

current configuration, it needs to change its behavior in a way that allow in the natural area and also people who are refugees and live outside the country to be able to return and live in safety. year after year we have snowfall on syrian refugee camps in lebanon, people live in tents covered in snow, dying and freezing to death, they know what it is in syria and will be tortured. people are able to return home and it is not a solution. >> focusing on syria and paying attention, we forget we are a society of organizations that are related, do not pay attention to syria the way we

do with bosnia or south africa or other things and we have to reflect on this issue. a couple years ago, there was an article why syria needs an earthquake. in one week after the earthquake, the organization received more donations than 6 or 7 years of the syrian crisis, doesn't have a response about syria and pay attention to this whether they are evangelical or catholic or jewish or muslim, the day we had the press conference with a few muslim organizations, the syrian crisis, the first time in the last seven years congress has a responsibility. rashida tlaib tweeted about italy, always tweet about syria

and what is happening in syria. you have a senator from wisconsin who every day in the morning went to the senate floor and spoke about genocide. for 11 years, 3250 speeches about the treaty until it was ratified. congress can do that and the responsibility to push donald trump to do something in syria and then the media. we are a country of people and what is happening is a reflection of that, people in the united states whether they are faith leaders, obligations, the media and so forth and we have to reflect that and change that. >> i will be quick. we are tight on time. we have a long list of recommendations and i agree with all of them.

the united states under trump more so than obama has drawn a red line in the sand in terms of chemical weapons. if you think about that, we made a statement that if any, call weapon is used even if it kills one person, just one person we will conduct military strikes or some form of action and compare it to the scale that makes our policy look utterly absurd. the us needs to get its moral compass right and it's perspective on what we care about and why and get out of this convenient political equation where a use of chemical weapons these days is the only thing that will make us care or act in syria. we need to get over this westless idea that we we care about things that happen inside

our homeland. it is the only thing that matters. if you listen to democrats these days, forever wars, never-ending wars, bring the combat troops home, the trend is we don't care about the rest of the world because there is nothing good we can do. quite frankly that is just not true. we are not talking about 300,000 troops into syria, regime change. we are talking about for example using the fact the united states is the most powerful country in the world by a country mile to generate a diplomatic coalition puts unprecedented pressure on the russians within the un and the international community to stop committing war crimes on an hourly basis. at minimum just use diplomacy. and beyond that, we have had earthquakes or tsunami's or natural disasters, humanitarian

crisis response, the world mobilizes, why isn't the world doing that right now? it doesn't have to go through the un. i'm not an expert on the mechanics of humanitarian processes but the united states and the coalition of the willing could be flying supplies into turkey and tracking them over a turkish control border crossing to assist but we are not. why do we do it with an earthquake or tsunami but not 1 million people are 2 million people stuck in tents and open fields? >> it is an important question, hopefully we will see action all of this. thank you for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations]

[inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] >> coming up on c-span2, a discussed how the us could counter china's influence. live coverage from the hudson institute at noon eastern, watch online, c-span.org or listen with the free c-span radio apps. >> campaign 2020 is in nevada today live at 3:00 pm eastern. as donald trump speaks in las vegas ahead of the state's caucus. live coverage on c-span. watch on demand, c-span.org or listen on the go with the free c-span radio apps.

>> join us saturday at 6:00 pm eastern for the results of the nevada caucuses, precinct results, candidate speeches from joe biden, senators bernie sanders, it was before and and amy klobuchar, pete buttigieg and tom stier and your calls about campaign 2020, live coverage on c-span, on demand, c-span.org, or listen on the free c-span radio apps. >> we are joined by two members of congress from miami, republican congressman carlos c curbello and jason out my are, i want to start with the comment of the viewer who called into this program yesterday, that she is done voti