up next on booktv, a look at the decades long rivalry between iran and saudi arabia with kim ghattas evening. i am andrew, the director of the scowcroft institute of international affairs and the bush school of government here at texas a and m. university. i'd like to welcome our special event this evening with kim ghattas who's going to speak on the recent book, "black wave" saudi arabia, iran and the

forty-year rivalry that unraveled culture, religion and dollective memory in the middle east ." i have to say i spend the weekend reading it. i couldn't put it down it was so interesting. if you haven't read it after thisis evening i'm sure you will try to get it if you haven't already. i would urge you to to read it. it is fascinating, very well researched and i that there is a narrative flow to it and it is very troubling i have to say that that is the purpose of the book i think. i would like to announce unfortunately our event in two days with ambassador dennis ross was another expert in the middle east is unable to come to the collegcollege station. he had a family emergency and so the lecture will be postponed until later. kim ghattas is an emmy award-winning journalist who covered the middle east for 20 years for bbc & financial times. she reported from iraq, saudi

arabia, syria, lebanon and the war between israel and hezbollah earning an emmy for international news coverage. she's also reported on the state department and on american politics regularly traveling with secretariesg of state including condoleezza rice and hillary clinton and john kerry. she's been published in the atlantic, the "washington post," the foreign-policy and is currently in non- resident scholar at the carnegie endowment for international peace in washington.oo her first book is a "new york times" bestseller. she regularly speaks, continues to speak on american television and radio and was born and raised in lebanon, but she now lives between beirut andd washington, d.c.. if you have questions, please write them on the cards, the school ambassadors that have the blue blazers on half with them they've walked up and down the aisle that they will continue to do that and then once you break

the questions and pass them to thee isle, give them to me and i will go through them after his kim ghattas speaks. the two of us will sit up here and i will ask some questions and then take your answers on the cards. please join me in welcoming kim ghattas to the stage. [applause] it is a delight to be here this evening. thank you for the very generous introduction and for hosting us hereen at the annenberg conferee center and the scowcroft institute and the bush school for hosting me. i see my good friend thank you for helping to make this happen debate happening. i must complain about the

weather but this should give me a good excuse to return. i'm here to speak to you about my recent book just out a few weeks ago, black wave. as any book, it is the result of a journey. every writing endeavor is a journey and i'm sure many of you have written books and you know it can be a very isolating experience i and intellectual ad lonely experience. every book is a journey but this one is also more than a journey of the writing. it's the journey of 20 years of covering the middle east and the combination of my experience growing up in the region as a child of thece war in beirut. i grew up in the civi a civil we 80s and i wanted to write a story that wasn't your typical story about the region.

i'm sure many of you have read about the region and our experts sitting here this evening. i wanted to write more about this because i have questions i didn't find the answers to. i wanted to answer the questions about the region that are often asked what went wrong, what happened, why is it the way it is but i wanted to come at it from a different perspective, from our perspective from the region because i do think what is out there at the moment ist' not enough to explain why we've got to where we are, and i also think that it does not do justice to the people of the region who have tried as well through the hard to find this path forward. the way i drew my talks and readings as i tried to make it

accessible and i'm sure many of you here tonight are experts on the middle east by go vegan to thee experts i can bring some different answers and perspectives as to why the region is the way it is today. what drove me to write this book as i said there wasn't much out there that addressed the core of the problem and it took me a while to even put my finger on what was the problem with the point at which things had changed. that's what i want to d give asa starting point is give you the conclusions and i know that is the wrong way around but i do think it is important is in the research i've done is to go against some of the ideas people have about the middle east

because of the coverage into the headlines and the intensity of the news that comes to us from the middle east. so i want to start by telling you some of the things you know about the middle east and i hope that you will allow me to start like that. i want to point out three things. i want to start by saying that iran and saudi arabia, despite the headlines we see today and the last few decades have seen to indicate it always been like that, saudi arabia and iran have not always been rivals or enemies and wes forget that. there was a time that they were plain colors to counter communism and they were allied in that endeavor. you had visits exchanged between the royals i and the two countrs and they called on each other with titles.

they were not necessarily the closest of friends but they did cooperate in a lot of ways so that is a function dimmick tod today. the other one is a phrase we hear bandied about very often but it's always going to be about that and closely you will hear the sunnis and shia have always called each other. it's like the catholics and protestants. the sunnis and shia split after the death of prophet mohammed some people thought they should be the closest confidante that

even in the first few decades following the prophet's death, those identities were not as clearly defined and the identified overtime so that is another preconceived idea and misconception people have about the region when even president obama said david killing each other for a millennia it's always been like that and i would like to point out it has not been like that and therefore it doesn't need to be like that forever. and that is part of what drives the writing in this book. it can be different. in the final misconception people have particularly because of the constant droning on at the headlines that are focused on tyrants and dictators, the region has always been in the throes of violence and intolerance. that cultural intolerance is part of what defines the region and i would like to tell you

that it hasn't always been like that. i would like to give you a very different approach, because that question what happened was we repeated like a mantra from lebanon all the way to pakistan from saudi arabia to syria. for us it is a different country. it's one that isn't mightier than the hoarders of the sectarian killings. it is a more vibrant place without crushing intolerance of the religious zealots in a seemingly passed was not perfect. they work on pain in time and space into the future did still

holds much promise. the problem today in the region doesn't occur to those too young to remember when the vibrant colors and societies were the norm. those are the ones whose parents didn't tell them. it's a very different connotation related to beirut or riding their bikes on the banks of the rive river tigris and ba. all of these seem impossible today but i think especially the question was a surprise to those in the west assumed it had always been as it is today. it makes us think the past was perfect. i know sometimes in the united states there are people that have nostalgia for a different time and for the 60s were the

50s and they forget the things that were not wrong at the timee because we tend to idolize the past and i wasn't idealizing the past but i wanted to understand why things have unraveled and what was the starting point. and it unraveled slowly at first without people really noticing what was happening around them and then it took on an unexpected force in the last decade or 15 years. there are many turning points in any country or any regions history explained what happened, and there are of course many turning points in the middle east history whether it's the end of the ottoman empire, the fall of the last islamic caliphate after world war i and that this is a moment when the world lost its way, or some people who cling to the creation of israel in 1948 and subsequent

defeat in the war in 67 as the moment when there was a real fissure in the psyche of the arab and muslim world. and others were directly to 2003 at the moment everything became worse. people will therefore because of the headlines of the last two decades or so."

as i dug deeper and deeper into trying to find the answer of what happened and kept coming back to that one here 1979 a lot of you will remember that year as the year of the hostage crisis in tehran. it was also the year of the iran resolution, the hostage crisis was then in november. atam the same time as the hostae crisis in tehran, you had another type of hostage crisis in saudi arabia and mecca. and later in december on christmas eve you had the soviet invasion of afghanistan. those three events needed to resolve in some respects but the

siege ofge the holy mosque and invasion of afghanistan was seemingly independent of one another but they became completely intertwined into the combinations of all three was toxic. first of all, from this confluence of events was born the rivalry as i mentioned they were friendly rivals before and there was no reason they should have become enemies right after. there was no apparent reason they shouldn't have been enemies or rifles except for the fact that they saw themselves as the leaders of the muslim world and they were also of the two holy sites of mecca and of islam in mecca and medina. the ayatollah khomeini who

landed in tehran in february of 1979 also had planned a mission gone just iran, beyond just even the community of shia in his own country and beyond. so you had two countries, saudi arabia and iran, one shia and suddenly buying for leadership of the muslim world and that is what not only changed the geopolitics of the region that started to slow the growth of the sectarian language and identities as both countries yielded those identities and efforts to dominate the region and rally the people to their side. and in that battle, they both distort and exploit religion and the pursuit of something very simple that any world leader would understand and that is raw

power. that is the constant from 1979 to this day that flattens out everything in its path. and i believe it is as deeply as the events of 1979 and it's a way that started after those events. other pivotal moments or undue alliances. the end or start the war, they bring the end or see the beginning of the political movements and ideologies but 1979 changed the geopolitics turned countries but it did more than that because these countries started using religion as a tool. it had an impact in society and culture and so what it did is begin a process that transformed

societies and offer a cultural and religious references. the dynamics that were unleashed on changed who we are in the region and hijacked our collective memory and that is why i was keen to have the words collective memory in the title because i think that it's important to understand the processes that are unleashed by the events like that when they ripple across not just years of several decades. over time people's memories of what came before and a lot of people in the united states forget that actually the iranian revolution didn't begin as an effort to bring theocracy to the country and a lot of the moderate were involved.

the ayatollah khomeini wrote that and came out on top. the year 1979 and the four decades that followed are the stories that i telling "black wave," because it went beyond geopolitics and descended into a constant effort to outbid each othercs in this effort to show o was theu real leader of the muslim world. they fought the legitimacy and the cultural domination and changed society not just in iran, very obviously, not only in saudi arabia in a more subtle way, but in countries that extended all the way from egypt to pakistan and beyond. i couldn't include everything in the book because i try to write it as a story in a narrative as you so mentioned and it's hard to keep a narrative on track if

you included too many details and countries and places. i know you'll say pakistan isn't part of the middle east and i haven't forgotten my angiography, that's what i wanted to really do is show how the dots are connected across the countries and across even the continents, because there is a tendency to look at the middle east as only the middle east and to book at pakistan and the continencontinent and that dynas something separate, but actually they are very intertwined as well. the modern history is very connected to those in the middle east. not only because of the jihad soviets that began after the invasion of afghanistan in which pakistan played a crucial role and of course everyone remembers or should remember that that was the war that the u.s. backed as well and that's why pakistan is

central to w the narrative in te book as i look at how about your ownk revolution rippled out agan to look at the revolution hell it affected it on or how did it affect their role in the region but it kind of rippled across the regionpl and how the world reacted and interacted with it and other arab countries. because there were a lot of reactions that initially they were not all negative. a lot of people admired how they managed to rise up and bring a theocracy to power. the research i conducted for the book into the fact that i pointed out 1979 as a crucial turning point was that i found that everywhere i asked a question i found reactions to my

thesis because i was met with a flute of -- flood of emotions. in pakistan from egypt or baghdad, tell me about 1979. 1979. out came all their memories and emotions and everything. to comee to terms were analyzed what you're going through. let me tell you how that wrecked by a courier or my marriage or my children's education and why i had to go into exile at that time and how i have to lose my job after 1979 and why.

even people who were not born before 1979 had a story because they are in the beginning of an understanding of the region about what that year has done to us. it felt like i was conducting national figure they sitting in people's studies with their living rooms as they sort of poured their hearts out to me. i am a journalist, not an academic that this is more than the reported narrative i relayen my interviews with people in these countries we dug deep into the archives with my research assistants. we looked at old footage and read articles, academic articles written at the time, because it is very interesting to see how perspectives change with time when you look back at economic articleshe immediately after the iran resolution or the siege to

sech cbeassessment at the time d about it now. when you put it all together, you get a virtual library of the history of the region. i have 19 blunders full with printed papers that told a story because i thought it was important to be able to see in front of me the pictures, the writings copied articles and headlines. imagine finding a headline from february, 1979 where saudi arabia while calmed the iranian revolution. those were the trends at the time. they could o relate even thoughe was a very conservative man.

he wanted to brin bring back one country and they welcomed that and said we hope we can cooperate on the basis of our common religion and understanding of hoin theundersd be applied tond society so when you look at these events and details, you put it all together and put together a puzzle of the forgotten events when you have the puzzle in front of you it gives you a different understanding and breeding of the last four decades of history and from egypt, pakistan, saudi arabia, iraq and lebanon. and it shatters some of those accepted truth that we have in the region because they can so they could tell you sometimes even we forget they haven't always been killing each other. i grew up in the civil war in

lebanon and if those words were never used. it wasn't that kind of conflict but today it is so accepted in our collective memory that we forget it looks like this before. and that rivalry evolve and mutate over time with consequences. i am trying to present a m different approach. you will find a love of poetry and literature and music and cultural references in this book, because i think it is important also to remember the richness of the region and to humanize the region which has been so devoid of context in the headlines. so this is an advocate of tourism.

it isn't even about the dangers that it poses for the west. this has been everything that you've already read, everything that you've already seen on television in the headlines out of respect to my colleagues but even i sometimes because that is just the nature of our business, and i think that is why i wanted to take a step back and bite this book. this is a story of the people and they are very, very many. their voices have not necessarily been heard but who are not silent because they continue to fight against day our men and women with an equal number of characters in the book because your don't hear enough

from the women in the region. even though they are very feisty and very strong and very powerful you should see what is happening in iraq, lebanon and iran today with women repeat leaving the protests against the corruption and mismanagement of the country. they are mostly devout like you go to church and should still believe in the separation of church and state so you don't have an oxymoron. you can't believe in this n. of the mosques and the states. these are progressive thinkers that represent a very vibrant and pluralistic society. they've suffered immensely at rhe hands of those that yield power or they are relentlessly intolerant of other people.

like my friend and colleague the saudi journalist who was murdered in the consulate in 2018. you will find the story in these pages when he returns to the u.s. from a his days as a student in the u.s. and then you will meet him again a few chapters later when he becomes a journalist covering afghanistan. you meet him a few chapters after that when he returned to saudi arabia and the narrative after 9/11 coming and he is the editor of th a newspaper that gs fired for having printed the critical criticizing the creed

of islam that is practiced in saudi arabia. fortunately, you will meet him in the last chapter. i was writing a passage around the time of 9/11 when he disappeared and found out that he was killed. it is one that i did not expect but one i do think is in that rivalry, the connections between how this was part of the larger ystory, but it really wasn't. now, i've given you thehe conclusion of the concluding thoughts, and i've given you the ending in the last chapter, but of course this isn't enough i'm being told it reads like -- we know how it intends to some extent and it's not in a great

place, but they also note how it ends because i do believe that there is a better future ahead. i believe that because the peoplthat's because thepeople tn iraq and iran and lebanon today that are again paying with their lives and facing and continuing to take to the streets including the women and lebanon stand as a defense line between the men behind them and the police. they stand behind them because the repression of the police. the women in baghdad are just absolutely incredible. and how they are taking to the streets and mocking those to return home in their call for segregation in public spaces. it's where we are in 2020.

now, i'm giving you a little bit of the ending and some of theof conclusions, but the tail actually begins just a few years before 1979 on the shores of the mediterranean in lebanon in my own country which plays many times an unfortunate role in the developmentsn in the region tody and again as well. a few years before 1979 on the shores of my country there is a little-known episode that plays a crucial role in setting up the stage for the resolution, and i'd like to start a book with that because there is such an irony to the fact it turned iran from a perfect kingdom to a theocracy, the resolution that was organized by secular leftists and islamist moderates as you're now reminded him of. the irony is the revolution that

brought the fundamentalists to power over the ultimate cities david and is, the capital of arab modernity and test the city of the enlightenment, the birthplace of the age of enlightenment. if not for the freedom in both these countries, ayatollah khomeini may have died forgotten in a cul-de-sac in the holy city in iraq. i'm not going to tell you too much more about how the story unfolds, wha but i loved what it the researchers i learned a lot about the region. i found a lot of interesting gems hidden in the pages of the history, things that were surprising and the role that the palestinian leaders at the time played as well in helping the

iranian resolution came to be. the fact that the muslim brotherhood, which was still the power to be reckoned with in some of the countries but was still in many ways a more general political force you. it looked to the success and faults we can do this. even though they were suni and he was a shia, they went to visit him to see what he could offer them. those are all episodes that are forgotten but i think it's important to go back because it's important to look at the different pieces of the puzzle to understand why we got to where we are today. as i mentioned, the connectors are not the key that drives the narrative, it is the characters like the television anchor who

said the science we know the future of pakistan who are at iee heart of this book, the stories overlap in times, they cross paths, perhaps not but they all fight for the t same thing. it's for the more tolerant societies. the stories are contained in the historical figures and so what you end up with is 1,000 middle eastern should fix. i'd like to see the story isn't over because as i mentioned. as i was writing this book, i really went back and forth between true despair, but i eventually settled on hope

because there is no other way forward. one of the reasons why, you know i grew up in a civil war for 15 years we waited for it to end and you could say we were crazy to wait for so long, but it isn't that easy p to these in te home country. you have to start from scratch, somewhere else more known. it's hard to leave your savings behind, your belongings. so, we stayed in the hopes that one day things would get better. and that is the hope that i see still today in the region when i look around me. i know a lot of people in the united states have given up on the region, but i would urge yon not to because progress takes time. we have a lot of factors that work against us. the uprisings are not over and they are on a failure, they are only the beginning. and thehe united states took soe

time to become what it is today. after the french revolution that democracy was not the instant results the day after. it takes time and so i settled on hope because another company in the region people that have never known and i see how they want to escape the ghosts of the past. they want to build a different future. they wanted to escape so i've written this book for people in the west in the united states and elsewhere who wonder what went wrong in the region and why i did write this book for those determined the times before and what happened to us. perhaps i wrote it especially for the younger generation who

today ask their parents why didn't you do anything to stop what was unraveling, why did you let this happen and i was amazed to see that question posed in both saudi arabia and iran, but has been very different trajectory but in both countries they were asking the parents why, why did you let 1979 have been to us so i hope not only with the like you -- provide you with a different perspective on my region and our society, but i hope that it also provides clues for the younger generations to help them find a better path forward one that is not determined for iran and d saudi arabia.

it's important to look back and see what happened because the philosopher said it is true life must be understood backwards but they forget the other proposition and that is the only way to go. thank you very much for listening. [applause] >> thank you very much.

we have our own scholar of iran here who has written a remarkable book on religious statecraft if you haven't read it you should because it is a reinterpretation of the iranian revolution and i remember one summer coming back from vacation, mohammed was very excited and said i found a diary in the library at harvard of the leaders of the iranian revolution, and i found was in evidence by the leaders they never intended. they did it because they wanted to prove that they were not in bed with the cia when the u.s. government and i remember the

very i kept looking at the footnotes. footnotes. >> it was instrumental to understand period and not only how they were trying to undo each other but then in the groupings people were trying to outbid each other to come on top. erit was about power. >> i raised this and i understand why you'd do if i wanted to raise this because it is barely mentioned in the book and that is good and. he was educated to the scholar i don't know what that did for the economy of sudan, but he

orchestrated the coup that brought them to power in the summer of 1989. and i remember i was working for the u.s. aig for president bush 41, and i remember we took out a bottle of champagne after hours of course, not paid for by the federal government, and we had a toast because we finally got rid of the democratically elected government which have stonewalled the relief effort and they died asne a result of that and we were finally rid of this and i should havei remembered the statement of brent scowcroft when you think there's light at the end of the tunnel it i is usually a train t to run you over. [laughter] and i learned that very painfully because as time went on, we realized that she was a very dangerous guy and two and a half millionon people died while he was president. so, why didn't you mention this, because it fits into the

narrative perfectly. >> i'm trying to find the one line where i do mention it. [laughter] rifling through the book very quickly, because it is veryy interesting. ic, there is a technical reason why. the technical reason is that while you write a book that is driven by narrative it's where you have to keep the reader engaged. .. i felt terrible that i cannot

write more about yemen. yemen is another one of those on our collective conscience as humanity that we can let this happen, i felt terrible but i only had one chapter on syria. but there was a narrative that i was following, not a specific story that i absolutely wanted to stay by ignoring the story. but i was looking at the trendlines across the four tears and really kim ghattas ten-point thein key moments either cultur, religious or social, pin them down to specific countries where they had happen. so the rise of islamic militancy and the killings, the first moment when that happens in modern times because remember i said they have not been killing eacher other forever and in fact

over the course of the history they have killed each other less than catholics and protestants except these are the headlines today. but a moment where i happen was in modern times in pakistan, it was not even in thehe middle ea. so pakistan is a chapter where i explore that so in every chapter there is a specific point or turning point or an issue where i explore, i have this on the wall where i had the seven countries that i explore in the four decades and they had posted various events happening in each of these countries in the various areas to protect the line and i have to eliminate a lot and unfortunately sudan was important but it did not set the wider. but i do mention in the book because it's very important and part of what we have forgotten

even in the region, it was an addiction intellectual secular progressive thinker who was trying to fight back against the rise of intolerance that was beginning to sweep his country after 1979 and he had fierce debate with muslim thinkers with the muslim brotherhood and other groups. he pushed back against them in a public debate once where he said i will never accept the islam be insulted, i am a muslim, always be a muslim you can insult communism, but do not insult islam. this is a progressive thinkerer talking. and then he said when you asked for an islamic state, which one are you suggesting exactly as a

model. this isy the '90s. there were no successful examples, iran, saudi arabia and sudan have been failures. this is an islamic thinker, intellectual in the '90s in egypt pushing back against more conservative thinkers by saying, point tot me once a sexual is taohmiwith theislamic state fors since the first century after the prophet, only 1% of people have advocated for a religious date, when 99% have advocated for what we are a calling for which is a civil state. he was assassinated not long after this and it's one of the key turning points where you see this man who is so outspoken is more in as a martyr of the

nation when he is killed by radical extremists. 20 years later, the same thing happened in pakistan where a governor is declared for defending a christian woman, he is murdered in cold blooded in broad daylight and no one dares anymore to come out andmo mourn him and declare him a martyr of the nation. that's how fast things unravel. >> one thing that is curious but interesting, the shieh only make 10% of islam. it is not 5050 or even two thirds, one third, is 10% versus 90%. >> it is a bit more, a bit more but not very much. >> 90, ten i thought somewhere around there. in most of the shieh, only the mccourt under majoritmajority, s

you point out. >> 35. >> the largest population outside of iran. >> in pakistan. >> and some -- i actually brought up prints who is the leader within shieh islam and even the shieh objected and says he is a heretic and i brought it up to in a saudi diplomat and he started yelling at me, they are not muslims and on and yre on. so even within each of the great traditions there are sub and i walked into a mosque in morocco 15 years ago i thought it was an orthodox church because the chanting of the men is very similar to the chanting of an orthodox church. it is very beautiful, very mystical. >> part of the heritage thatt we lost. >> that is exactly right.

the question is, how is it that a country only makes up ten, 15%, whatever% you want, why does it pose a threat to saudi arabia. if you talk to king abdul and jordan were the egyptians private, is a huge the of iran, it is a small percentage of the arab world and then there's the fear out of the muslim world. why? >> it goes to factors in a nutshell. after 1979 as a i mentioned, he wanted to appeal to the wider muslim world, he did not want to be an iranian leader or a xian leader, he wanted to appeal to on world andt was he did two things, he challenged the saudis as the holy site in islam, the iranians until

recently still often called for a joint body to be custodian of the holy site and that drives hethe saudis crazy because thats where they derive the germans ly and power and money as well. it's very lucrative to be to the holy sites. at the time right after 1979 or as a part of the preparation for the revolution t of iran, he had cleverly identified the palestinian cause as one that would give him appeal beyond his borders, beyond the xian community. this is one of c the episodes tt begins the book where i explore that alliance between the salestinians, having been

disappointed in 1967 against the israelis, hauling self betrayed and starting to make moves towards american camp and makes moves towards the israelis out of who is going to help me now. so there are connections made with iranians in lebanon, the militants who are working towards the fall and they are trained, many of themy are trained in the palestinian camps in lebanon, and that's how that unfolds. but humanity had identified it away to transcend a run and take over the sunni, the arab to

appeal to people across the region as the man who could come and where the arabs had failed and potentially as they put it, liberate through lemon and regain land. >> even though it was very secular and remained to a woman.an >> it is about power. madison had no problem greeting him and he was the first leader, the first foreign leader to visit humanity after -- if you want to call it that. he was greeted ass a hero today and tomorrow jerusalem.

what happened in the interim, iran has worked very strategically on maintaining its appeal to people outside of iran and the shiite community, they discarded that affect and really only paid lip service to the cause. the radical palestinian multi group. part of the islamic revolutionary guard that puts force -- named after the mosque in jerusalem, named after the arabic words, named after jerusalem, arabic words for jerusalem i'm getting tingled up in my languages. the force is iran's expeditionary expansionist military force around the region headed until very recently by

soleimani, i'm sure you know that name by now he was killed in a drone strike of january of this year on the orders of president trump. it was meant to liberate jerusalem for the palestinians in the muslim nation except that soleimani thought the road through jerusalem went from beirut with untold devastation for people along the way. so the fear -- the reason why saudi arabia fears its expansionist policies is because it appeals to a lot of people in ways saudi arabia does not because it firmly in the american camp while they were on is the anti-imperialist camp. i think both of these countries at this point need each other as well, i think to some extent the

saudis need or benefit from seeing iran continue to be a negative player and that means saudi arabia continues to be amicus best friend in the region. you mentioned soleimani's name, i want to mention that because it happened after your book was published. >> his killing is not inm the book but he is in the book. >> he's all over the book. >> the last page of the last chapter is a description of a video animation put together of an online saudi outfit the shellshowsthem liberating, then, giving them self up to the saudis. in real life, they have to leave it up to the americans to do it.

>> tell us, you wrote one of the most -- not that you collaborated but the two most thoughtful articles after soleimani's killing that i saw were when you wrote and a can't remember where you saw. >> it was in the atlantic where you describe what the u.s. needs to do now, you are no advocate of soleimani but you say if youe leave it this way it will be a real problem, you need to follow up to additional messages. what is the effect of soleimani's death on the calculus because we know -- we have to switch sites, he was leading the demonstration to get iran out of iraq, now he is leaving demonstrations to get the united states out of iraq. >> in hopes that the saudis would back him, he broke with the wind. it's important to remember that

soleimani did run a network of murderous malicious around the region from iraq to syria to yemen in the focus here in the aftermath was all my goodness, this is going to be war between the u.s. and around but in many ways it is already constant war and violence and there were a lot of people in iraq and syria who celebrated the demise. >> and in iran. you have seen the footage of>> people coming out in mourning but there was also a lot of people that were relieved that this man in the crackdown against peaceful protesters in the country in 2009, 2017, 2018 in 2019 that this man was finally gone. i think what is happening in the region now is that all the different parties that are

allied to iran or proxies that are closely allies or detached allies are for position kim ghattas uses moment to come on top, i think that looks further i what it's doing. he's looking at how the wind is blowing and whether any vacancies the moment to become theen ultimate leader in the region, i will say a run in iran's allies in the region are very good at turning moments and vulnerability into moments of strength, if you remember after 2003 the u.s. invasionr of iraq, iran feared it could be next and instead of cowering, they seize the moment as well as they could, as much as they could and now many years later or until very recently the accepted state of affairs that the u.s. would really love iraq to iran becaue

they were ready from the get go to turn this to their advantage. i think the same is happening now, they tried to turn the moment after soleimani into somehow a moment where they can solidify their gains because they will not stop violence to whoever is in front of them to seize what theynd can. but they are facing a lot of headwinds because of the protest that you are seeing in iraq and lebanon and iran. against iran strangle hold and the politics of this region. >> you mentioned the woman's movement, i might add the revolution of the uprising that led to the demise of president bashir in sedan -- >> the iconic image of the young women dressed in white with big gold earring standing on top of a car leading the men

enchanting. these are the examples i'm talkingg about. >> i just had a small group meeting with her, it's unheard of in sunni politics. so you mentioneded women, is the some connection between young people in the middle east and the demands theyon are making fr form and change in opening up of the society and democracy because democracy is under attack around i the world. >> democracy is under attack around the world, i try to avoid to some extent the word democracy when i talk about the region because it's become associated with specific u.s. driven agendas and i think people in the region want to set their own agenda and i think we have to trust that we know what we want and what we want is a more progressive, more diverse, more tolerant future but democracy is a cookie-cutter template does not work the same

everywhere, you have variation in representation in the system et cetera. i do think that people across the region are connected in many ways. if you listen to the chanting in the streets of beirut, you will hear them say. [speaking in foreign language] , from beran to beirut, they're not talking by 1979, they arere talking about the protest that are taking place today that are challenging the corrupt leadership, the mismanagement and the authoritarianism and so far in the conversation it is been very much around lebanon and iraq in iran's role but it is important to remember that there have been up raising in sunni countries, this is not a denominational thing. it is not only an ann taylor i

wrong thing, a lot of people are also fed up with the influence that saudi arabia has had on religion and culture in the region and although today they have a crown prince who wants to appear as a reformer and does many things that feed into the agendao of reform, a lot of saudis live a in fear of what their crown prince's doing and it's falling upon their country, women activists who fought for the rights to drive, this is a fight that has been going on for decades, a lot of the young activist and older activist call themselves in jail right before the conference because the orders still come the top. because they have campaign for the right to drive just as the

right was granted to women in the kingdom because in the kingdom of saudi arabia, those rates are still granted by the king, it's up to his magnet to mitty to make this possible. i thinkib yes, and saudi arabia young people are yearning for a different future, they are getting a lot of what they missed over the last few decades with cinemas opening andth muses opening in dj parties and jazz concerts and all of that but again it's out of the western model of culture that the crown prince thinks he should bring to the kingdom and young people in the country are asking what about our traditional arts and culture in our traditional dancing, it's a bit of a crisis of identity i would say in the kingdom. >> there is some evidence that saudi arabia, the crown prince and prime minister is reaching out quietly too the iranians. etis it possible that this war

will end because it's very interesting theory, the united states seems to be pulling back and even though the president ordered the killing of soleima soleimani, many of the supporters are saying now you killed him, let's get out. so the united states may not be seen as central in the middle east were pivotal in the middle east any longer and so maybe the saudis say the united states is not reliable so we will have to make an agreement with iran and if it does, what happens to the complexion of the middle east? >> we have had the talk and the push in the region before, the '90s were. in the middle east where we had fewer wars, no proxy wars, very few battles because the saudis and the iranians were on good

terms. that made a huge difference. the saudis often rushed towards the talks with the iranians when they feel endangered, when they feel their position is endangered. it happened during the iran-iraq war when the iranians were on the verge of what it felt like to the saudis as a possible all-out victory against sue don hussein, the saudis rushed to direct talk, they exchanged visits, the ministe foreign minr went to tehran and they offered huge compensation to iran, billions of dollars if they would bring in and to the conflict because they did not want to see a iranian victory. they iranians had requirements that they could not abide by and that included the issue of a

joint body for custody over the two holy sites that's not something the saudis could not handle and we have seen the moment before and it was ushered and at the end of the iran iraq war when they iranians were worried that perhaps that iranians were defeated but now they will have to deal with sid hussein, it is not impossible but however, he believes all the moments were used by around to solidify its decisions. whether diplomats were smiling the revolutionary guard was thinking deeper into areas of the region, opening cultural centersen that posed as a front

for revolutionary guard activities in he said clearly he will not be fooled again. he will not be full by the smiles of my running diplomats anymore. does he want an all-out were, status quo to some extent. he does not want a run to gain too much more, he wants thehe curve and contain you also worry about president trump not being enough of a solid ally that he's not an ally who will go to bat for the saudis. he will push through american strategic interests, but he will notll necessarily come to the defense if is certain by around. so the saudis feel they need to hedge a little bit and they have been in direct talks between this saudis and iranians over the last few months but i do not see peace between them or a fulo

require real change in behavior of the authorities in iran. i do not seeee that happening either. >> one other massive change, i saw an article in the washington post, i cannot remember what year but maybe five or six years ago when one of the prince's and the royal family in saudi arabia said the israel now has the same interest as we have. you never hear that in the saudi royal family anyone saying something like that. it is not the threat it was before, israell saw egypt since the signing of the peace corpse tab other arab states seen israel as a counterbalance to iran and therefore consistent

with their own interests, that is a big change. >> that is a bigs change, it's a big change, it explains why arab countries did not forcefully reject president trump's peace plan, even though they may disagree, they put out a sharp statement at the arab league but it does not serve much purpose in the statement was p lipservie to the palestinian cause because countries like saudi arabia want to stay on president trump's good side because they want this to be about -- the focus be on countering around. even if they don't as i just mentioned, feel that president trump will necessarily come to their immediate defense if they are threatened by around or attacked by around, they still feel that this is the camp that will serve them best and therefore they are willing to be

silent on certain issues as long as israel is doing the countering off a run in the region i saw a headline that iranians and thens americans and have agreed that one will take on ironic syria and one will take on ironic in iraq and that will serve the interest perfectly fine. >> you have a lot of stories that you did not put in the book. >> it is time for another book. >> so many. >> were there be a sequel to this book. >> i don't know if it will be a perfect sequel but maybe i can write what happened after this book, before that i hope i will write more before that, there are little gems that i found in the research that i like to explore, i do not know which one will have power over the course

of the book, it's always a process as you try to test your thesis and dig into the archives where you have the most information that you can work with, do i maybe want to use some of this to write a novel set in the region, i'm not sure, there is one little incident in the story that i like about thet safari club, the safari club was the name of an intelligence and intelligence group that brought together the saudis, the iranians for the 1979, the french, the americans if i'm not mistaking and possibly the british, it was called the safari club because they met in kenya at thed safari club and t was a grouping of intelligence officers from these countries

where the height of the cold war they plotted and debated in various countries where they were worried about communism. ii always wondered about what more do we know about this, i have not found any books about this. >> i don't think there's many books written about his. >> but i know it existed. >> it existed and there's lots of interesting aspects to it. i think it would be good to read an article and then write a novel based on that. >> when i was president bush 43i envoy to sudan i met with the intelligence chiefs and in egypt several times, ethiopia, kenya, uganda and libya. libya was the most interesting because i met four hours with him, he left very quickly when the government was going down theng tubes. he was very powerful and he had

a map, that's why i was appointed in the peace agreement, there were 70 agents of the intelligence service in libya giving money and weapons out to the rebels because they did not like was sheer. and i said what you are handing out weapons and he mentioned all the leaders i was trying to negotiate with. i realize the oversight, i did not realize how central libya was to what was going on. >> the best conversations i had with intelligence chiefs and when i wrote my history, iea cannot mention in the notes where the information came from but it was very useful to understand the complexity of the region. they keeppeg shifting. >> set in the 70s in the middle east was interesting. >> there will be a movie.

>> what is the moderating influences and iran, let's put some time aside because for a while no, the regime is using this to reunite the population behind the theocracy. that will not last forever. >> i think it already ended.. >> really. >> i think that was a very brief moment of unity, i have seen some i iranians dispute the numbers of people who participated in the funeral of soleimani in the large crowds, i am not an expert in things like that but some people have disputed the numbers and i think in moments like that people come out out of fear for what could happen to their country, no matter what they think of the regime. out of fear that they could be punished if they do not show upd because it's stillau a country that is run an autocratic way so

shops are close, you have to show up, i do not doubt out of sense of nationalism that people also warned him of course, i am not ann iranian expert i'd like to make that clear. i've not spent enough time there. i think when you look at what is happening in iran today and particularly what happened after the downing of the ukrainian plane when 170 people died for of young promising i iranians, iranian canadians and very hyphenated nationalities and the authorities were very clear of the revolutionary guard very clearly lied over the course of several days that they were responsible, they lied or hid the reality, the truth even from

the president, the outrage that people expressed on the streets in the aftermath of the admission that this had been iran's fault tells you at how brittle things are, i am not one to predict the fall of the regime at all, i think it would be very chaotic but i do think something is coming undone. you never know with what speed it accelerates and you never know to what extent the regime is willing to go to hold onto power but whether the young people protesting or the women of the mandatory basis in the regime's control over a society, whether it's the labor movement that is organizing in the country and that the challenges aare mounting, if not to the regime but to the regime's way

of doing things. these are the moderating influences and society. >> i had a student from afghanistan tell me, i looked it up and he was right but in the 1960s there were afghan women wearing miniskirts that the perception that afghanistan -- the evil society for a thousand years, they have not made any progress and it was simply nonsense. this is in the city, not in the rural area. >> i have seen the picture, i wrote an article aboute it as well, when you look at these pictures particularly in a country like afghanistan which are looking up as a westernized elite, the minority. when you see pictures like that in a country that is larger and was at the time more modernized like egypt that women in skirts

was not westernized minority elite but an expression of traces of more than a minority. what i like to make clear is what women in the middle east want to have the right to wear a miniskirt, maybe they do not want to wear a miniskirt, they want the right to choose. whether they want to wear the skirt or not, that's what we have lost is the freedom to choose which is what definede. r society before. even in iran, the people were protesting against the mandatory veil, some of them are revealed and they were there by choice. they want their fellow iranian women to have a choice to wear it or not. that is what people are protesting against. when it comes to afghanistan in particular, we heard joe biden in the debate say the

afghanistan is a paraphrase as a broken country can never be put together, we take issue with statements like that. i think it is too easy to dismiss the whole country like that, whether it is iran or iraq, similar statements were made at the time and it ties in with them how boys kill each other, it's a little bit of a copout, it's a way of saying we cannot do anything, we will not try. that is not to say we are calling for invasions to fix that but it's not the solution either, it is too easy to dismiss as people who cannot get their actno together, we are facing tremendous odds and some of those include the u.s. backing for dictators in egypt, and other countries of the

region, dictators who use preconceived ideas about the region and how it is a backwards place the saints either mean the modernizing man in a suit or the fundamentalistt crazies. that is not the binary choice that is available inhe the regin and we need to haveio more faith in the region. >> we are pastor do in terms of a time to have this talk together. thank you for being with us. we think this was the center of the united states but the rest of the country does not see itr this t way. so we appreciate you coming all the way from washington or beirut. >> thank you so much for having >>me. [applause]

>> we connect this week we are featuring book tv programs showcasing what is available every week and on c-span2. on wednesday, books on appalachia, historian chronicles robert kennedy visit in the winter of 1967 and 68 and how that fueled his interest to run for president. and then cassie chambers looks back at her grandmother aunt and mother who grew up in poverty in kentucky's appalachian mountain region in their decision to remain or leave. after that jd recalls his childhood in a town in ohio, walked book tv this week and every weekend on c-span2. >> up next, retire foreign service officer examines u.s. policy in the middle east in the recent confrontation between the u.s. and iran in his book

"bunker diplomacy". later he explores dwight eisenhower's decision to deploy u.s. marines to beirut in 1958 becoming america's first compact entry into the middle east. >> many thanks to all of you for making time in your day to join us. our gathering includes fasteners and representatives from across embassies including ambassador from tunisia, we have representatives from ukraine, iraq, jordan, morocco, tunisia, turkey, yemen, the netherlands, norway, australia, zimbabwe, and ecuador. from the four corners, we come to hear you. we also welcome distinguish board members and selfless funder of the middle east programs at the atlantic council john de blasio. finally we welcome u.s. government officials, private companies and nonprofits, i predict r