in terms of households and businesses, this is in very good shape by historical standards. leverage in the household sector has been gradually moving down and down and down. since the financial crisis. there were some negative effects on that. people lost their jobs and that sort of thing. the damage has not been as bad. businesses by the same token had a high debt load coming in. many said their revenues decline they have done so much financing and there's a lot of cash on their balance sheet. nothing in those two sectors really jumps out as troubling. .... ....

>> this will involve all the other regulatory agencies to see if we can strengthen those things. that is a broader detailed look. >> thank you. >> chair, help me understand something about the sec in your forecast the inflation you are talking about you say is transitory. by 2023 you are at

two.1 percent, no forecast for a rate increase 2023. if you get three.5 percent unemployment but inflation is only two.1 percent be willing to leave rates at zero going forward from there? could we be in a japan situation where it stays low? >> i wouldn't read too much into the march report. remember what it is a compilation of individual projections by individual members they all make individual assessments and forecasts. economic forecast some have more optimistic summer less optimistic. and remember the sep doesn't include all the things that go into maximum employment. it only includes unemployment.

i would just say we set out clear guidance the message that i would like to leave with people is we set out clear guidance. mentioned what it was. i'm sorry labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment not just unemployment but all other indicators. overall totaling at maximum employment and inflation on track to exceed 2 percent moderately for some time. those are the criteria we are committed to robustly implementing that guidance. that is what this says that's all it says. we will wait until those requirements are met. again, the state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain and i wouldn't want to focus too much on the exact timing of a rate increase that far in the

future. >> before 2019, you are focused on the problems with having interest rates too low. now you say we are willing to live with it until we reach these goals even if we get maximum employment? >> we are committed to giving the economy the support it needs to return as quickly as possible to a state of maximum employment. to the extent having rates low and support for monetary policy broadly to the extent that raises other questions , we think it is essential to maintain the strength and stability of the broader financial system.

and to carefully monitor financial stability questions of that is what you're getting at. we monitor that very carefully. i would point out over the long expansion, the longest in history, ten years and eight months rates were at zero seven years then never got above two.4 percent roughly and during that actually we did not see excess buildup of debt. we did not see that prices form into a bubble threatening the progress of the economy. we did not see the housing bubble. the things that tend to her and economy and have hurt in the past they did not build up despite very low rates. part of that you are in a lower rate environment and the connection between the rates in the financial instability issue is not as tight as people think it is. not to say we ignore it. we watch a very carefully. we think there is a connection.

we say there is but is not quite so clear. we actually monitor financial conditions very broadly and carefully and we didn't do that before the global financial crisis 12 years ago now we do putting time and effort into strengthening the large financial institutions that form the core of our financial system are much stronger and more resilient that's true of the banks, ccp , and other non-bank financial intermediation markets and institutions. monetary policy to me would be achieving macro economic games

financial regulatory policy and supervision for strengthening the financial system so it is strong and robust to withstand the things that couldn't frankly and we learned that 2008 through 2010. this time around the financial system held up very well. we found other areas that need strengthening and that is what we are working on now. >> thank you for taking my question. chairman can you talk to us about the relationship was systemic unemployment and the inspected increase of inflation? what about the expected increase of inflation does the former offset the latter and to which degree?

>> the relationship between unemployment and inflation? is that the question? >> yes if they offset each other. >> yes. i think i am hearing you correctly. there was a time there was a tight connection between unemployment and inflation. that is long gone. we had extremely low and unemployment not extremely, low unemployment in 2018 and 2019 at three.5 percent bouncing around three.5 percent and not just unemployment participation was hide wages removing up. we didn't see price inflation move up but there is a relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. but what happens when wages

move up because unemployment is low companies have been absorbing and that seems to be a feature of late cycle behavior. so when we seek to achieve unemployment we have the freedom to do that based on the data without worrying about inflation. >> hello. thank you for taking my question. i want to follow up understand what you are saying about the message you're trying to send but but that temper tantrum he said it will take some time to

get fundamental progress on your goals but it seems sometime could be any time. >> we said substantial further progress. now if you go back. november and december and january progress in the labor market slowed very sharply so an average of 29000 jobs per month. if you look at the level of job creation before that come it was very high. very very high. we had no progress on the labor market from november through january. february we saw a nice pick up the jobs report. that is good. we can go so much higher. it would be nice to see to be higher than that and it will be that's the expectation you

will see now with strong job creation return not as high as it was in the early days of the recovery, but nonetheless very strong. okay. what i am saying is to reach substantial progress after three months a very little progress will take some time. we don't want to get into trying to put a pin on the calendar someplace because that will be data dependent. when we see yourselves on track to make substantial further progress we will say so. we understand fully that test involves judgment. remember during the financial crisis, we said quantitative easing number three was a substantial improvement for

the outlook of the labor market. what does that mean substantial improvement that we would communicate when we felt we had that. it is just like that in a way. substantial further progress toward our goals. we will tell people when we think, until we get a signal you can assume we are not there yet. as we approach it well in advance, well in advance we will give a signal, that yes, we are on a path to possibly achieve that and consider tapering. is not different from q e3 and i think what we've learned the last dozen years is to communicate very carefully and clearly well and in advance and then follow through with your communications in this case it is outcome based set of guidance and the rate guidance depends on the progress of the economy. that's why it's important not to pinpoint dates.

>> house bills are sitting on a lot of excess savings if you have an unleashing of pent-up demand how much would that affect inflation? >> everyone who is forecasting what we are doing is looking at the amount of savings and we have reasonably good data on that. we are looking at the government transfers that will be made as part of the laws to make an assessment and what would be the tendency of people to spend that money.

the marginal propensity and from there you can develop an estimate of the impact on spending or growth, hiring and ultimately inflation. that's what we're all doing. we can look at history and make estimates those are transparent and we have done that and made very conservative assumptions at each step of that process. what it comes down to is very likely there will be a step up in inflation as march and april drop out of the 12 month window because they were very low inflation numbers that will be a significant pop but it will wear off quickly just the way the numbers are calculated. past that, as the economy reopens, people will start spending more. you can only go out to dinner once per night but a lot of people can go and they are not

doing that now. they are going to restaurants and the theater the travel and hotels that's not functioning at full capacity. as it happens, people can start to spend so it wouldn't be surprising and you see this now in the goods economy there will be bottlenecks they cannot service all of the demand for a period. we have model that and others have to that we see relatively modest increases of inflation. but those are not permanent things. the supply-side in the united states is very dynamic people start businesses, they reopen restaurants, the airlines are flying again come all those things happen so it will be a one time bowl chin prices but it won't change inflation going forward because

inflation expectations are strongly anchored around 2 percent. we know inflation dynamics do we evolve over time and there was a time when inflation went up come it would stay up. that time is not now and that hasn't been the case over decades. we all think we will suddenly change. we say things tend to change over time and when the central bank doesn't understand that having inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent is the key to it all. anchored at 2 percent gives us the ability to push hard when the economy is really week. if we saw inflation expectations moving 2 percent of course we would conduct policy in a way to make sure that didn't happen we are committed to having inflation

expectations anchored at 2 percent not above or below. if you look at all of that and model it that is what comes out of our assessment. there are different possibilities. it's a very unusual situation to have all the savings and fiscal support and monetary policy. but that is the most likely case and as the data comes in and performs we will adjust our outcome based guidance and immediately adapt to meet whatever the path of the economy is. >> thank you. the last question. >> thank you chairman power all my questions about the supply chain especially on the goods side. are they getting better or worse? we saw the drag on the industrial production numbers yesterday what do you expect them to do short-term? >> it's impossible to say

frankly with any confidence but i would expect it is very possible you will see bottlenecks emerge and then clear over time and see that over a period of time because really a strong data are ahead of us. right now the checks are going out. just now. and that will add to spending. covid cases are coming down and vaccinations moving quickly. there is strong economic data is coming and it should be coming assuming we stay on this track and that is when you will really know where the bottlenecks are. but you can see is not like the supply-side will adapt. the market will clear it may just take some time and some of that may be price. you will see that people are reluctant to raise prices.

it is the wage phillips curve is implement goes down wages go up the companies choose not to pass that price increase along to their customers. he will see that here but that is the basic sense. thank you very much

>> my big problem is that if this is a massive bill which is totally disconnected and

brought on by this pandemic. >> thank you madame president. i wish you and everyone happy st. patrick's day it's a big day for celebration and boston all across the country in the world everyone is irish so i wish everybody that happy st. patrick's day today. and right now on the floor of the united states senate there is a reason not to be so

happy, and that's why i look forward to very soon casting my vote to confirm teetwelve to lead the department of health and human services one of the most qualified and forward thinking minds that will have ever run the department of health and human services. but today republicans are using this confirmation vote to continue the agenda of obstruction deflecting attention away from the nominee who will be the head of the chief federal agency responding to the coronavirus crisis to revive anht unnecessary blatantly political debate on reproductive rights. this ridiculous delay tactic only highlights how out of step the american people the senate republicans are. antichoice, anti- woman anti- rhetoric is on full display and sadly it is not new.

they want to rollback roe vs wade income allies abortion care, they want the government to control women and their bodies. they want to rollback title ix protections for women on university campuses and completely get title x programs to find critical providers like planned parenthood. republicans have put in place the antichoice majority by confirming justices neil gore such and justice kavanaugh to filling ruth bader ginsburg see with justice barrett. there ever was a reason to abolish the filibuster it is to ensure we passed legislation to expand the supreme court so we cannot over cheney on - - overturn roe vs wade and then to state - - but equal access to

healthcare in our country but today the republicans are attempting to disrupt hhs with a political pay play to their days at the expense of americans. to rather play politics. and then to beholden to the far right interest groups that the american people sent us here to do. for the past four years. and with those far right policies in november how did american people respond? they voted him out with those interest groups for healthcare and women's rights and that is why i stand on the floor the united states i senate today to say abortion is healthcare.

we cannot stand for any more disparities or delays or denials more than ever in this country we need to stand up and raise our voices to restrict access to health services. we have a fight ahead of us to make sure birth control is affordable and available a fight for her title x to make sure low income patients receive quality family-planning and reproductive health services.ie voters expect the biden harris administration to take bold steps and protect and expand access and to ensure every person has the fundamental right to make their own healthcare decisions because they want it.ig public support for roe v wade is that a record high.

70 percent support that historic supreme court decision that goes beyond a simple majority to the overwhelming consensus. couple years ago one analysis is there is not a single state in the united states a majority of voters support making abortion illegal in all circumstances the people who have had that debate republicans seem committed to resuscitate on the floor today they are on the wrong side of history and on the wrong side of people that confirmation vote of teetwelve enough with the era of extreme bodily discrimination enough to take control over what a woman can or cannot do with her body.

enough with barriers to reproductive services and birth control enough with criminalization of abortion care. enough with creating roadblocks for poor women immigrants and equal access to healthcare. enough with the offensive debate steeped in misogyny and tyranny. it is time to guarantee quality affordable healthcare regardless of race or status or agenda it is time to rectify the healthcare and reproductive injustices costing lives for too long. and then ton recognize this can promote equity we can shape with the constitutional rights of all people by delaying teetwelve nomination for secretary of hhs republican see more interested with the

health rights of americans and protecting the health of all americans. plain and simple harvey year the sarah is exceedingly qualified to be our next hhs secretary he has proven he prioritizes science to make health and medical decisions about our own bodies and that fighting for those most vulnerable. his record in support for reproductive freedom reflects the will of the bat vast majority of americans it is committed to reproductive freedom and understands the importance tender sure one - - ensure people to make the best decisions for their lives and their families javier becerra

will lead with conviction and compassion and care and ready to undo the damage that has been done by his predecessors. as america continues to battle the coronavirus i'm proud to support javier becerra secretary health and human services. he will be one of the greatest secretaries that are country has ever known. madame president, i yield back