continues. host: josh kraushaar is back

with us, p >> back with us as a senior political columnist where he pens against the grain man —- against the grain last week you took some time today again to the presidents falling poll numbers so just how worried should democrats be right now? >> they should be very worried the average job approval according to the polling averages 44 percent that is lower than every president in the administration the last 50 years other than donald trump that is a whammy because the president is losing support among independents the average support is now down in the thirties in most of these polls and youon have the intensity of opposition that even some of those independence seek disapproval from a sizable plurality

voters and there's evidence democrats are disillusioned as well covid is not going away the economy faces a lot of head when dan the white house a few months ago thought they would be politicking on a good economy and covid going away. inflation is a real issue but just the after effect of covid inweather shortages and stores caddying hours or services. talk to democrats who are using the word malaise a lot to describe the public mood. that is not a good sign that is the tag that sticks with the carter presidency and what nobody wants to repeat. >> show viewers the real clear politics chart from january

and february through the latest numbers you can see the trend line going down and underwater early september historically, what we see here is not the usual and of the honeymoon phase this is something different? >> polls go up and down and then midterms are a a year away there's plenty ofcy time but one of the more concerning elements is that unlikee president trump and obama who could rely on a rocksolid space 80 or 90 percent during the obama and trump presidency saying they would support them no matter what. you don't see that same degree of support with president biden. he kicks off the left and then

with the trillions of dollars in a big spending package so at least with trump and then for our parties even though we have a letter the headwind. biden doesn't and i am so talented for him. >> midterms are a year away but now the close race in virginia is now just weeks away. so how does this play off the democratic governor of fridge and yet if he loses a state that president biden wind less than one year ago by ten percentage points. >> that is the virginia governor race that will be very strong about what the

public mood is looking like democrats thought it would be a walk in the and then by the president by ten points and dragging political democrats want every governors race going back to 2013 the presidential elections go back to 2008 but they underestimated those that year after the presidential election there wasia a desire to check the party in power and then you add on top of that with the party of power and then the support he had in the state winning well over 50 percent of the vote last year his job approval in virginia is now in the forties and underwater. i assume the president would

come in in the closing days of the governor's race but i'm not sure president biden will give terry mcauliffe that much help because but that is a warning sign that you are looking to get enthusiasm at a time when that was nondata challenge at all. it is a lot harder to see democrats showing up in the off year elections. >> if he were to show up it would be doing a busy time. and the finalat number on that should be. how long will the state to the president get the budget reconciliation bill through the house and senate?

>> usually the notion in washington is something that important is too big to fail. so the trillions of dollars of proposeded spending may be too big to pass. 50/50 senate with joe mansion and kyrsten sinema is not partyline voters so these are notes easy and then you look at house and policy and biden can only afford to lose three house democrats and you only have a couple on the record who are already wary of the spending levels of what is proposed and may want to pass something also enough but then

three and half trillion dollars ofio additional spending on top of the bipartisan proposal for infrastructure or covid relief there's nothing better than a 50/50 chance inside to get everyone in line. >> on the smartest minds in politics and then political reporter from the national journal but against the grain of the podcastst of the same name and as usual by political party.

>>caller: good morning. biden is not making decisions he is a puppet everybody knows it look at the extreme policy view we will define the money to build the wall with environmental stuff that will not stop the illegals and by the institute for immigration studies it cost american taxpayers last year half a trillion dollars on illegal immigration. and as far as the news media goes talk about the january 6

commission but you don't hear about biden son laptop or art deals. nothing like that is not 50/50 ten forneties / conservatives and republicans and especially donald trump. >> the caller brings up an interesting point which is the trump factor in the need to that he himself is not on the ballot one of the signals out of virginia is that mcauliffe has promised much of his campaign on connecting his republican opponent to former president trump the numbers suggest it would be similar to the 2020 election a critical mass of voters who may have voted for joe biden but now looking for a different approach and connecting those hasn't worked out they had

hoped but that is a warning sign for them midterms because it is connecting every republican on ballot to trump anyone who defends and were voted for him is hated by the red flag is not a winning issue in wisconsin or a competitive battleground states. so one of the many reasons virginia is that they though whether to attack republicans. >> let's switch playbooks in the midterm elections one of the headline to win back congress republicans must work past his turf. >> the flipside of the progressives on the left is the republican party has been taken over.

them more ctc and georgia and is a favorite to be the republican nominee. and a lot of republicans are concerned about i can —- candidacy the trump endorsed him. and then to take over the republican party making it harder to compete that could hamper their chances to be in a favorable state.

and to be the ceo of the carlyle group if you want the nomination of liver state like virginia you doing very well in the general election and the governor has not yet announced his plans but it's a good chance he runs for the senate so republicans have avoided in that state compared to others so look at the day picture with easier to windows states to go through new hampshire and nevada but the states like arizona and georgia would be lower because

of the candidates. >> when the last time we did not have a wave election? i have discovered politics since 2004 most every election if you go back and forth because people have said they are dissatisfied. and with b the rack war and hurricane katrina and distressed the government to do its job you the same complaints was 15 or 20 years later the public is dissatisfied with both parties and leadership and then that is the case. >> and wording keyport new

jersey. i wonder if we are getting an accurate picture to be anti- science. and then to get onstage the if push comes to shove that may omotivate people but that's my comment. thinks. the leadership of both parties it's about public in the can't it's a cult of personality and but that is still the defining issue and still believe that climate change is an important

issue with the most progressive parts of the parties so that a lot of the progressives priorities that the biden administration is pushing is popular with the classic swing voters. and then to blame the position as the retrograde cult and then the challenge that a lot of others want to hear more about the economy and then to deal with inflation and the wage hike of payment through child tax credits but inflation has wiped out so there is a big concern among democrats with their own economic situation and by

talking to those issues and then the issue and that is a risk. >> >>caller: k hope you give me a minute because i think your host i'm sorry your guest is missing something big. starting with virginia, gary mcauliffe isn in trouble and he refused climate anyone look at the federal level and the corruption on the democratic side is mind-boggling. and then refused to have a vote then you know it is a

fraud party they are just taking money from the health insurancee industry and that reflects in the midterms. take a look at the public option biden said he would do. look at the minimum wage $15 an hour. those white senators from the $ northern states made sure we didn't have a $15 an hour minimum wage but you want to be rewarded in the midterms? can you address some of these? >> i think the caller has an interesting point which is thatro and talk about medicare for all and there is good reason for that and there are some voters on the left that want that.

so you're kicking off the left because you overpromised but then you kick off the middle and the right like the bernie agenda. so part of the problem in virginia and independent of the program progressives and went to spend the political capital and being more moderate and sacrifice that enthusiasm and for those samantha voted for republicans in the past. so that is the question of feces across-the-board they

don't want to make any hard choices about the agenda and what it takes. >> so under bill clinton now for the center for american progress so democrats have to unite to findat common ground or risk and electric that is angry and despondent and in the election and thereafter and rightly so. they went on the promise of adjusting the challenges republicans have long refused to acknowledge to lift up the economy workers centered and supports the middle class and on tackling the climate crisis with a cleaner and greener economy but then it is a thing of the past and they need to understand to win the next election orn any election in the near future they needhe to

show they can't govern. >> i think john podesta is on the many. his political guidance for those to compromise on thehe scope of the social spending bill closer to the one. 5 trillion senator manchin and kyrsten sinema have advocated. understanding the politics of congress there are limitations. and those to the same point that if you spend one. $9 trillion and they have one

and then to push further and further $6 trillion as the opening bid in the social spending package and now on top of everything else there was a larger ideological war and then to keep demanding more and more so the compromise has to beth in the direction of the moderate because of the makeup of congress simply because senator manchin and senator sinema one —- senator sinema have that degree of additional spending. are watching live cove

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