♪♪ 's. ♪♪ >> discussion of campaign 2022 and the senate jacob inside elections, reporter and analyst for that publication, thank you for joining us. >> but to be herer . >> set the stage for where the senate is now and what 2022 could bring ass far as control f the senate? >> united states senate is

currently split evenly as possible, 50 democrats 50 republicans.ib when joe biden's president, kamala harris is vice president, that means the democrats have a fentanyl majority in the chamber vice president harris cast tie-breaking vote. however, 2022 elections, we are looking at a battlefield that while small, still determine control of the united states senate which is on the line this november. democrats order publicans walk out of 2022 with control of this important chamber. >> if that's the case, for the most important races you're watching that determines the ultimate outcome? >> while there are 34 races up for election this fall, there eight we are watching closely that we below are the most competitive. evenly split like the senate is evenly split, or republican held

seats we are watching. on the democratic side from arizona, georgia, new hampshire and nevada. on the republican side, wisconsin, pennsylvania, north carolina and florida. >> specifics you mentioned arizona, i'm assuming, correct me if i'm wrong from senator cinemas feet and that's what they are watching played over the last few months with her. >> this one is senator mark kelly even though he was just elected last year or two years ago, he has to run for election again because it was a special election for the remainder of the late senator john mccain's feet. mark kelly is in arizona, a similar situation in georgia, rafael warnock when election feels like two weeks ago but have to run again in the fall

the controversy surrounding senator cinemas and her relationship with the democrats based certainly plays a role in the 2022 election in arizona, it would senator mark kelly in an awkward position as he's trying to hold on to the most dedicated voters in his democratic party while not dependent voters she's been hoarding and while not making things awkward between him and a his colleague in the senate evenly divided. while voters will not get the chance to determine senator cinemas next couple of years until 2024, she's so finding her self playing a role in these elections in 2020. >> he mentioned also new hampshire being at play,ti talk about that. >> new hampshire of all the democratic seats the one we see at the strongest at the moment

while nevada, arizona and georgia we have tossup from new hampshire we see democratic race. the reason is because republicans hoped, governor run against you, editor hassett. they believed was the best possible candidate not just in that race but potentially any race in the country cycle and he be the automatic favorite, a lot of republicans i spoke to spoke about that race as certainty for pickup opportunity they believed she would run. of course she decided not to run didn't do just that but launched a blistering attack on the united states senate as an institution saying he had no interest goingte forward and wee try to remain governor so that means there republicans have to resort to take primary election to find their nominee, a bunch of candidates in that state

primary is not until mid-september, one of the latest in the country that of facing a wildly popular universally well-known and well come the governor, maggie hassett get to sit back and build up her support within the state while republicans are holding out until the timber primary and that's why along with new hampshire is a little more democratic than these other states, why we see that democrats are best positioned at the moment. >> this is jacob of inside elections, 2,078,000. independence 202-74-8002. he want to talk to him about the senate, particularly when it comes to election 2022, for the senate might look like after those. he talked about democrats from front of the republican places x are looking at for

republican places we view as particularly competitive. the interesting thing about the republican side we seen quite a few retirements out of republican senators five of them, only one retirement from the seat of thehe democratic senator so pennsylvania, senator toomey is retiring if not seekingg reelection and that makes the best chance at pickup race this cycle while republicans are slightly favorite given the national environment,al pennsylvania wasn the presidential election, -left-curly-bracket from a quick campus if it's a real opportunity for democrats. when you cap wisconsin for senator ron johnson is running for reelection. another state close in 2016, close to 2020 we have republicans simply because johnson is public, they are still working through their primary d role not have a nomine

until mid august. after that we had north carolina from another republican retirement senator richard burr from a similar situation, republican primary democratic -- democrats already have their presumptive nominee, former state, she's already transitioned to general election vote, there still figuring at out but north carolina is marked republican intrinsically that wisconsin or pennsylvania, so we view republicans as slightly favorite in that race as well and we got florida which always seems to play host to these competitive type elections, no matter the national political environment. there we have general election matchup and marco rubio running for a third term, republican and bum on the democratic side, congresswoman deming's, almost

certain democratic nominee raising a ton of money and while she faces an uphill battle in florida, only aph few democrats have one state died in the last decade, she's a strong candidate for democrats and that the race we have to watch because florida, even when racist are close, they are close by any other state standard. >> there is talk usually aboutk the president's approval rating and where they stand, how much of a determining factor on the ratings on these races and can things change before november? >> the approval rating plays ' huge role in the midterm election and that's because the president isn't on the ballot so voters don't havevo a way to tae out the frustration historically speaking, they take the party instead and as we go back and look at the last 100 years of midterm elections, it's about the party inns power in the whie house was always loses in the

house of representatives and more often than not, loses seats in the u.s. senate as well. but it's pretty clear across the board coming on popular president is a drag on the president voting because voters aren't generally unhappy with the direction of the country, they don't like what they are seeing out of washington and because the president isn't on the ballot, go for the next best thing which is the president's party. if we look at the few situations in which the party in power is not losing control or gained back, generally in the times when the president has been popular in there best example br is probably the 2002 midterms in which republicans gain seats in the house and senate despite george w. bush being in power and that's because the country was still reeling from 9/11 and very much behind george w. bush

politically speaking during that election, that's not the case in 2022, joe biden is an unpopular president cap spells trouble for the houseof of representatives. in the senate no, it's a little different because it's more constrained, not every senator is up for reelection this time democrats have the benefit of only depending seat and states joe biden 12020 so they do have a built in advantage. however, things are so bad for the president at the moment, a lot of those close states, georgia and arizona less than a percentage.flip to republicans even though they voted for joe biden the 2020 election because the president is so unpopular. >> jacobow of inside elections, joining us. democrat line, first up for our

guest, phil had. >> i just want to ask why you people always say house and senate are evenly divided about the power is e evenly divided wn the senate has a filibuster which means we have no power in the senate at all. democrats have note power there. >> in some cases, it certainly is true when it comes to legislating, it's farng more difficult to pass most legislation when you do not have 60 seats in the senate can't overcome a filibuster but i wouldn't say there is none at all. the last year or so demonstrated that pretty well when democrats passed several trillion dollars spending coronavirus relief packages with no republican votes, just with 50 votes plus the vice president in the senate and we are going to see another example of this in the coming

months, joe bidenng nominates a supreme court justice nominee to replace retiring justice breyer, that person, she may pass through the senate with no public in both because of nominations, and appointment on a simple majority. diminishing the wall filibuster plays in the chamber, the reason we have seen a lack of every thank legislating of the u.s. senate last decade or more now, it's because so much commute 60 votes to pass but there are still things a democratic president and majority can do with 50 votes in the united states senate. if democrats lose the senate providing the last two years of biden's first term, it's goingng to get a lot more uncomfortable for him, even more than it already is now with the difficulties they have.

>> joe in maine, independently. >> thank you for taking my call and i want to ask, what other republicans going to run on? in 2016 they were promised to repair or replace and they didn't do it. they did nothing on immigration, they didn't address or do anything but lie about how many miles of wall faith else. now they are going to run in a month or two, they will run a campaign but one of a going to run on? we defended present trump was impeached, refused to look at evidence if they took an oath to be fair and impartial and they obviously just fiddled on that. how are they going to answer these questions? now they've got at. lunatic running around saying he still running election. okay. he's lied repeatedly, the

republicans got behind him and it's obvious it was a lie november 3. >> okay. >> thank you, go ahead. >> what is the message generally republicansen senators will run on? second part, how much does a former resident on the events of january 6 factor in? >> one of the nice things about being a party out of power, a lot of times voters don't really care what you are running on so much as but you are not the other guy. that's really what we are seeing out of republicans at the moment, they are focusing on perceived failures of the biden administration. the thing ith hope here over and over, the cost of living the border, the situation in afghanistan. they are simply presenting themselves as an alternative historically speaking, that's an effective way to get back in

power. they feel like they private the democrats, they don't like how things are going and regardless of the more substantive criticisms on policy, a lot of voters are simply looking for something to do and republicans will and the midterm is to present themselves as a reasonable alternative to what we have going on at the moment. that may well be effective because voters dissatisfied with the country the is going in. your second part of the question about the dangers for republicans as they become unreasonable him perceived by voters as unreasonable and former president is integral here becausese voters rejected donald trump at 2020, lost the presidential election and democrats one back united states senate in one in red places like georgia and arizona, the rejection of trump's him. a pretty clear way.

if republicans decide rather than being alternative to democrats to inflation and rising costs, to chaos in afghanistan, if they become perceived as a return to trump some, that could be difficult oufor the party heading into the midterms because voters have already said that's not really what they want so the republican here is how much to lean into association with the former president and not all of that is voluntary because as we know, the guy likes to put himself in these situations and likes to be the center of attention. republicans at the moment are simply trying to present themselves as better than joe biden, not joe biden but they are going to have to navigate not being donald trump either. if they want to have success as

big as they put in the fall. >> monique, washington d.c. democrat line. >> hello, i truly believe -- thank you to c-span from sorry for not respecting the platform but i think invalid in the congress and the senate when it comes to the population of the people as a whole. also the amount of representatives from i am from washington d.c. and we are taxation without representation. we don't get i say in any laws passed legislation or anything. our voices don't count. you also have a lot of states with significant population with more boats. more power than another state

with left population and it's very imbalanced especially when it comes to the south based. they have more power than the norm in so many ways when it comes to the legislative path.hi ... thank you for calling. that is monique. guest: while this goes back to something i was saying earlier about the level of power the democrats have in an evenly divided senate. we saw this last year and two years ago, the movement for d.c. statehood, movement to make d.c. to me d.c. no longer this in

itself territory that has 700,000 people in it who don't get to vote in congress which is absolutelye the case. a grant from a congressional representative united states will increase the size of the united states senate to 102. they passed the u.s. house in the united states senate because there are still a few democratic senators who are not on board with d.c. statehood. where democrats have a larger majority h it's really possible that we could have seen the district of columbia admitted as a state of the union and buts because that legislation is subject to that 50 vote threshold there not enough democrats and republicans like lisa murkowski who has expressed openness to d.c. statehood coming from alaska.

a lot of folks out there weren't alive when alaska was his when alaska wednesday. reduce talking about a half a century ago. there was a chance to correct that imbalance for the district of columbia and democrats did not have the votes to pass it. more broadly speaking the senate these days is a tough place for democrats to be successful because the party is struggling so much in smaller more rural places over the last decade. that is not how things always have been and there's no reason to believe that that's how things always will be. if you go back to 2008 when democrats did have the 60 vote majority in the united states senatete democrats had two senators from montana and two senators from north dakota and the senator from south dakota and republicans had two senators

from georgia and two senators from minnesota. at the moment this is a two-party deposition in a way that democrats earned his advantage in the united states senate and there's no denyingdv that. hosts this since you brought it up the georgia senate race what's the status of the raphael warnock's late and him getting another term in the senate? >> absolutely great this will be one of the most competitive races in one of the closest races in the entire country. raphael warnock one that victory along with jon ossoff during a special election runoff and now he will face in all likelihood a republican herschel walker the former star of the university of georgia and an nfl running back who has never run for political office before and former president trump who encouraged

him to run to help clear the field for him to run. both walker and warnock is will raising incredible sums of money. walker is one of the top republicans in the entire country and george asou a states so a evenly split between democrats and republicans. both of these candidates have a very -- and terms of how many voters there are out there. if you look at the election in georgia in 2018 when brian kemp eight stacey rumsey only won by two points and it was a great year for democrats. v. to 2020 jill biden won by a fraction of her sent over donald trump. in 2021 the special elections were decided by two points. this is a state that holds competitive races in really close races.ea

thiswi race will be focused both because we have candidates raising a lotwo of money [inaudible] >> host: on the independent line, you are next. >> caller: i'm calling about the young man that's on tv here. he was just saying that the democrats never have a chance and everything. i haven't heard a republican or independent or anybody in their party get on tv and say anything about social security. howard they going to handle so such handle so such purity from here on out? >> the people on social security need a word about this. what did the republicans stand on as far as their mid-terms on social security? i'm interested in what's going on with social security. >> host: how did those specific topics like social

security and up in election rates in the senate? >> the reality is republicans have stop talking about social security made a stop talking about medicare. a lot of the government support programs that once made up the republican party are looking for ways to restructure and in some cases privatize that. what george bush tried to do a decade and aie half ago those ae one of the central tenets of the republican party and paul ryan who -- and they have learned their lesson which is to stop talking about social security and stop talking about the care. donald trump made it very clear when he said he said everyone wants to cut social security and medicare and i'm going to increase it and that was an

uncommon position for republicans at the time and since then they have realized how politically unpopular it is and they have stayed away from the issue. i think broadly speaking governments don't like -- republicans don't like government spending in any way. that's a real topic of discussion that's much more salient for voters like cost of living the economy in general and some of the other things the biden administration is done. >> host: seattle washington mark on the democrats line. >> good morning gentlemen. thanks for c-span. i just think jacob these very well studied. i think he is missing the mark and that you know nobody wants

to be typed as i'm a republican alll the time. a lot of people will change this election i think and i think he needs to reflect that american people cannot be stereotyped. they will vote the way they will vote and i'm thinking he has a very accurate representation of the way they are going to vote. >> host: what led you to believee that? >> caller: he reminds me a lot of my cousin. he wants to reassure us that republicans will vote this way. for instance normally republicans support war and the wawar effort. they are not doing it this time. the foolishness of war and maybe we'll lose. >> host: how does that relate to the senate elections in 2022?

>> caller: well you know we have got to get a majority in their. it's for too long been a tie so a good question for the election to answer. >> host: mr. rubashkin. >> guest: certainly when it comes to how politicians both the republican party has gone through a metamorphosis over the past couple of years that demonstrates like i was saying was social security sometimes the party moves in unpredictable ways particularly in the age of donald trump who has shifted the party on a lot of these issues particularly on foreign policy when republicans were the party of an incredibly muscular foreign policy and in some regards tried to that back, specifically we are talking about ukraineba a lot now. the former president had a major beef with nato which for a

republicano, was rare. a republican would go up and question lee -- openly question our alliances. that was not the republican position priorat to 2017 body cm to the republican position and now we see a lot of republican media in particular at the forefront of questioning the united states involvement in the situation in ukraine. i make no pretension of knowing how each and every person in each and every republican is going to vote because i understand positions shift and party shift. when it comes to voters voters do this change their votes in swing voters to exist. for the vast majority of voters howma they voted in the last presidential election is usually the best indicator of how they are going to vote in the next

election and that has increased every single cycle. it used to be we saw a lot of split ticket voting and now we see very little. a lot of these races that segment of voters that does change their mind and that being different and that's why states like new hampshire or georgia or nevada the voted for joe biden in 2020 and voted a republican into the united states senate. they could easily elect a democrat so voters to change their minds and politicians do move on the issues. we can't determine and project voter behavior and political behavior on the span of their voting or in their careers. >> host:g let's hear from thomas in florida on the republican line. thomas we are just about out of time so go ahead quickly with your question or comment.

>> caller: i will make it quick. i'm 20 years old and i plan for running for president in 2032. i think we need a new face for the republican party and we see the party of the future. i'm so sick of going on "cnn" and fox in every single day they talk about the january 6 for hunter biden's e-mails or trump or hillary clinton or at all they do is talk about the past and i would like to see a republican party looking towards the future looking at green energy and looking at stem a new technology looking at new economic ideas looking at things to move forward instead of constantly moving back. >> host: that's thomas inse florida. mr. rubashkin for all you said about looking at these races and the outcomes i know it's early. what you see is the outcome? >> guest: it is still early and anything from the democratic gain to f republican gain of a w

seats is well within the realm ofs the possibilities. this field is so small which is rare for a senate battle real. there only four democratic seatf that are particularly vulnerable and only for republican held seats that are particularly vulnerable. we are not going to see these massive swings like in 2014 when republicans picked up nine seats nin the senate in 2010 when the republicans picked up seven seats in the senate and that is highly unlikely. i've got to say they don't need seven and they don't need nine. they just need the one that they have more upper to need to stick a particularly democrats who can't pick up any seats on their own. the national environment is looking good for republicans. the senate gives democrats hope in it this way could go either way. >> host: jacob rubashkin and

if you want to find more about the senate races you can do so. sebastian thank you for your time. >> guest: thank you.