>> "washington journal" continues. host: we >> now nine months from election day 2022 it's a good day from the senior national political columnist at the national journal and host of the national journal against the grain podcast the latest column that you have is against the grain wave watches

the headline but look at the political potential upset in the 2022 midterm so explain what a wave election is and how we know when it will hit quick. >> me had a lot the last ten or 15 years just because voters have been satisfied with whatever party has been in charge it is a rejection of the government party where the party that is not in power generally takes control of congress are picks up a lot of seats in the house and the senate and ite. has been a reality since 2006 we have seen a lot whether trump rejected in 2018 and democrats taking control of the house are republicans in 2010 and 2014 capitalizing on anger against former president obama and part of the reason we see

so many is the public doesn't trust government for either party and the power goes from party to party. >> is a red wave a spec certainty do you have any sense of how much that wave fled wash away inas the house and senate quick. >> nothing is ever a certainty ten months away from the election, but the signals are not looking good for democrats the president's job approval rating is at pretty dangerous levels in the low forties you have that intensity gap that should be alarming for the biden administration that even whthose that support him will support him intensely they had stronger support for their own base of the party and then to commend the same degree of loyalty that and you look at the smoke signals on the economy but inflation is a

real a concern the state of the pandemic is a concern and frankly the biden administration has not shown a lot of confidence on a lot of fronts and the covid situation is a good example you see democratic governors in states like new jersey and connecticut taking a lead role to getin schools back to normal to set up plan for having kids take their masks off and then to leave the area they should be benefiting politically as a micron starts to fade away. republicans have their own issues with the trump factor playing a role in some of the primaries but fundamentally it's a very tough environment right now. >> what would be a realistic scenario that you could imagine for democrats in the house and senate quick. >> holding the house will be

tough probably less than 5 percent just because they have a very small majority and redistricting hasn't turned out as good as they feared but is looking worse than they expected one year ago so they need the economy to get back on track and then we need to see inflationwe dissipating which is looking likely as the fed is expected to raise interest rates and you have to have a sense of normalcy if the voters are going to the frustratedhey are at covid regulation that is another variant that would be a big problem for the white house so there are things that could improve the standing but the house will be difficult

for democrats to hold that the senate is another story even though they only need one seat to take back the senate majority republicans have a lot of issues with their candidate or lack of candidates running in r these races so democrats have a much stronger chance to hold the senate majority with that's challenging. >> is the most vulnerable democratic senator out there quick. >> i would say senator cortez masto in nevada that goes against conventional wisdom likeph arizona that has more republican leaning states that nevada is a state where you have a large hispanic population in a large working-class population in both of those get away from the democratic party and you also have the likelihood of a credible republican candidate state attorney general the greatest candidate that republicans have this cycle that someone who is acceptable

both to both wings of the party and to have that unity consensus within the republican party is hard to come by celexa +-plus-sign. >> if you like to talk politics now it's a good time to call in author of against the grain, and the podcast senior political columnist with the national journal will be with uss until the house comes in at 10:00 a.m. eastern we will chat about any of the house or senate races you will talk about the midterms and let us know what candidate you want to talk about. >> and minute ago you talked about the trump factor in the republican party want to talk about that in the wake of that

speech that mike pence made breaking with the president rejecting the idea he could overturn the results in the 2020 election and then restart republican lawmakers many of them defending mike pence and republican leaders on capitol hill questions about that yesterday we will see if that continues to the rest of the week does that play into any of the projections for nine months out or do you think that's just a couple they story quick. >> it is a challenge for republicans if you see a low-level were brewing between the establishment with the party and the fact the republican national committee condemned lives cheney at the very least dividing a party there has been a lot of anti- trump republicans but also a

lot at still one is the candidates to endorse what happened on january 6 there were condemning those of good standing whatever you think of epher as one of the most prominent republican party families in the country so there is a civil war that's taking place under the radar in many cases you have primaries and many important battleground states and it could get ugly and i know the party leaders want to avoid those in wallpaper them over but this is the biggest challenge facing the party that you have very right wing trump aligned activist within the party that they were nominees and big races and that could cost republicans a very important seat that is the biggest problem affecting the republican party the presence of candidates and not electable to a more mainstream audience.

>> if you're a democratic candidate you want the president to campaign with you?au >> no. unless his number is maintained at is a drag on the democratic candidates striking that republicans are now using joe biden as the bogeyman in the campaign ads more than aoc or even doctor fauci bad bidens numbers are really rough for the president and his first midterm election. and the economy has a lot of frustration there are education issues that they

have been out of touch so biden was once seen as the guy who to go to little america or the swing districts to be an asset but that's no longer the case and i w think you'll see him campaign and many swing states for this cycle. >> good morning. i understand a lot of people want to downplay biden at this moment and i think he's doing an outstanding job for what he has to work with the republican senators don't want to vote on anything. anything but the democrats pull the load if you look at it they vote on saving the

government from a shutdown we have to democrats who don't want to carve up that filibuster so all of the republicans that have run in all the gerrymandering states and counties but the carveouts can you tell me how much that plays into if the republicans do happen to take the house and what do you think about these studying restrictions and suppression and the one ballot box drop off for 1 million people how does that play into winning they will crush the house? i don't believe it. >> so the encouraging news for democrats is those worries about gerrymandering and how that could affect the democrat

ability that did not transpire like they were worried about democrats in many states including illinois new york nevada new mexico had very partisan gerrymandering and republicans and some big states like ohio and north carolina the courts have overruled the republican and forcing them to go back to the drawing board so my colleague and good friend at the current political report predicted that democrats may actually gain a couple of seats when it's all said and done as a result of the redistricting process democrats lose the house has nothing to do a gerrymandering but the political environment. with voter suppression and voting rights even to

demagogue the issue from the tbeginning when they could not pass any of their voting bills through congress i think it cost them a lot of political trouble because it raise expectations so high and then they exaggerated in some cases and in a way that was beyond reality and then talking about other issues beyond the voting issues but that could be damaging for the party in a midterm election like georgia where president biden spoke laste month to kick off the new year. so yes these issues will be debated going to the political process turnout is not historic levels i don't thank you will see any major changes to voting rules that will

limit the ability to fill in any state. >> good morning independent line. >>caller: hello. i want to ask you as we are always trying to be fair so i think i can keep it pretty quick. you have hunter biden i work naval intelligence you will not find a more credible land and tony he has a lot to say can you tell me that hunter biden is getting treated the same way as one of trumps kids? our brains work 90 percent of the visual with the

decision-making process butoc when we put our things out for over a year or four years against trump the way we did in the visuals and we all do the same wayre with biden because he is in a different party? i find that weird have you interviewed tony? let's get him on here and bring out everything we know about hunter biden and treated the same way as one of trumps kids. >> the caller may have a point about double standards but hunter biden is not a issue republicans will not try to rally that doubles standard and if they find that is an issue for the white house but

it's not aly voting issue for most. >> heading intoea primary season so what would you put is the biggest success and failure for democrats and? >> . >> with that wide-open primary field now you have one candidate who wound up being a favorite in the primary the trump national security

advisor anda a hedge fund owner and background in the business world as the nominee in pennsylvania would be a very strong candidate i thinkll republicans dodged the bullet because trumps issues dropped out of the race but he may have dodged able

and they did very good at that so much so they can offerem themselves.

>> talk about gerrymandering because there is no restrictions on that in dealing with the state supreme court and many of the biggest dates in the country ohio and north carolina but in new york as result of a very efficient but in ohio north carolina the

courts blocked that from taking place so what parties want to maximize their power but they have been more skeptical and we will see what happens where's they face a legal scrutiny that a lot of the liberal new york state supreme court it's the same thing as ohio north carolina. >> so the supreme court on monday reinstated a map on a lower court suggesting they say it was more skeptical based on claims of racism and with the three liberal members in dissent. >> it involves racial

gerrymandering and alabama as one district that will tackle a lot of african-american voters in and in the lower court essentially ruled to give black voters a chance to win seats in the state of alabama they overruled the lower court and they put a lot of skepticism in the district in the day picture and with that traditional gerrymandering it is a complicated issue because even democrat something about iaunholy alliance with the republican political leaders and with that representation

and with all of the nonwhite voters so alabama will be an interesting case study in the short term but in the longer term to have all the black ford voters at the minority representationai with that ideological alliances that approved racial gerrymandering. >> from alabama tois mississippi independent. good morning. >> . >> i want to let him know that what they are talking about how can anybody say the

president is losing when you have to democrats and all the republicans most of them to turn away from him and they lie about this economy because they refused to help him of that build back better package and coming from thebl republican party so that the democrats will set back in a situation to go over their head it will be more than 87 million or whatever is just like presidents election coming up.

>> but senator manchin is not on the ballot. >> that the reason why biden is because of the republican opposition that because they failed to secure the support a senator senate cinema so he has his owne house to worry about and his party is divided then you will lose the argument and you need that political capital so this just stems from the president's overly ambitious agenda and he promised to pass trillions of dollars in spending that was not tenable in states like arizona or west virginia but from the beginning the president misled the mandate he campaigned on bipartisanship in a 50/50

senate and nowhere near a majority in the house it's hard it's one of the most ambitious and agendas if ever seen and that's a lesson you cannot outline your mandate or you representation. >> independent linee good morning. >> good morning thank you very much for taking my call very interesting discussion. at this point i just want to comment that the wind of political opinion can change fairly rapidly. and in this case the president has passed the largest infrastructure program andth decades frankly they need to

put their hat on that and then over time the fact that we're finally out of afghanistan that blood period will look better and better with time but whenever you lose the war it never looks good when you leave and now to those service people who give their lives now. build back better yeah but what they need to do just look at what they can pass and do it and voting rights. >> build back better and afghanistan and, infrastructur. >> let's do afghanistan because that is the moment the osbiden administration lost its political standing with the issue of credibility with the

issue of confidence was raised in fact the issue of compassion he ran as compassionate president and sometimes you look like he was disconnected so afghanistan will not be the number one voting issue obviously but this president ran as a contract on compassion and credibility so i do think that afghanistan was a gateway for independent voters to look at the administration more closely it was like the wizard of oz moment and look behind the curtain and then you have a foreign-policy wondering about what will happen with ukraine and the leadership to prevent russia so i don't

think it was ever that was one of the biggest political blunders. >> the houses and at 10:00 a.m. eastern and at the white house president biden is expected to hear at 1:45 p.m. today all available on the c-span networks if you stay with us throughout the day we talked about the supreme court a little earlier i wondered your thoughts on the implications for election day 2022 if on the final day of the supreme court term the court overturns?

and for those virginia voters

it is good on the part of the democratic base but whoever they are they cannot find it in them to just condemn that and i agree that now you open

up the row v wade talk about demonstrations and protest so if president biden to me who seems like he's pretty together after listening to his press conference a couple of weeks ago on c-span he really does seem like he has it together people insult his mentality that's a shame but i guess they hate to ever they can hate from mlk to the food that we grow and ship it but my question is if president joe biden were to step down during his term to assure for lea short while we have a lady female president of the united

states to me kamala harris seems like she has it together to do some good work to assure that we have a lady president? have a good day. >> andnd i think president biden will necessarily step down unless it was an emergency health issue and frankly democrats are privately worried about vice president harris political stance they been frustrated with her to have an interview with her fumbles on policy issues so she could certainly turn things around that her numbers p if you look at the national polls are worse than president biden and in some cases pretty significantly so that's the bigger question politically if president biden only serves one term then vice president harrison is a front runner she

chooses but that is a wide-open field because the democrats are not impressed with her. >>caller: good morning my first question is as it concerns the economy a full on —- food prices and food i just paid four dollars a gallon for fuel and then a page $2.17 for fuel oil and as far as the energy that i'm talking about is that we had energy of independence in this country president biden is begging the saudi's to supply sn people should take into consideration how many billions of dollars as the working-class person

paid for what it cost at the pump? and has been expensive for people just to survive and also when i finish with this i always appreciate his father's input and josh you have not fallen far from the tree spent the price of gas in goods and inflation that is the number one economic worry ofer most americans at one point they said it is transitory it's only around as we get to the pandemic and then we will stabilize it doesn't seem to be the case anymore that's the biggest along with covid but the inflationary environment with interest rates over 2022

economic environment even bigger jobs report is still very volatile. host: what is your dad into political prognosticating? >> i'm not sure who he was thinking of. >> california independent. >> i believe our country is in bad shape that only democrats or republicans and i myself are really disenchanted i voted and i regret that i did and i gas prices are so high and the food has doubled we are suffering. and i believe like the colors who called the four break it

into pieces and pass what is important the economy is killing us. can you give us the scope of hope and you have a good day out take my answer off the air. host: you say pass what is importantt so what are the important parts of that quick. >> there are so many. i just cannot point out one or two there is so much also medicare they have to look at this thank you.

>> i think the color is in the same space as a lot of the voters if they voted for biden they were sick of the chaos but not satisfied with the results of the economic reality taking place and that's the problem there are more biden ayden voters and that's why the environment looks very honest forde democrats right now. >> good morning and thank you very much i would like to go back to the redistricting issue. i think it is a very interesting thing to look at the fact that i believe certainly it is something that will affect my congresswoman

it actually has to move to stay in her district, physically move and as a democrat i'm very concerned about the fact if there are competent women in congress and the senate it is so often they are attacked by republicans and i don't understand why they don't want to support women in these roles. i think it's a long time coming and it's important for the women to participate it just shocks me in this day and age we don't have that type of supportin but i would like your opinion on that. >> to the first point virginia was where the court drew the maps it was a bipartisan team

and then the district was a little more republican but not as much as other districts around the country or even as virginia i think her biggest challenge as a moderator someone has very good standing and heard district it's a tough national environment for the democratic party and yes that's part of the process sometimes even with that amount of redistricting and then it creates chaos but ultimately every ten years it has some degree of destruction independent line good morning. >> i want to ask your prospects for the primary

election reform the biggest part of the problem is each party keep selecting extremist within their own party and that's why there is so much anxiety about gerrymandering. thinks. >> that's a great question.

as we expect the house to come in and the next minute or two, has there been a viral moment or add from campaign 2022 in your mind so far? guest: there haven't been a whole lot of ads. there was a viral video of stacey abrams, taking a picture at an elementary school not wearing a mask full of the kids were in masks. it's an issue the generator a lot of controversy and a lot of

tension. one of the big political issues republicans are looking to exploit is the hypocrisy of public health officials. political officials who say one thing and do another. we see that with governor newsom in california, the los angeles mayor. not living up to your own standards, i wouldn't be surprised to see those images show up. host: we will leave it there. josh with the national journal.