>> c-span brings you an unfiltered view of government. our newsletter word for word recaps from the halls of congress to daily press briefings to remarks from the president. scan the qr code at the right bottom to sign up for this email and stay up-to-date on everything happening in washington each day . subscribe today using the qr code or visit c-span.org/connect. >> we're back with charlie cook of the cook political report, here with us today to discuss the campaign 20 2010 2022 and political news of ne the day. the tag you herewith us . the world getting back to normal. >> i hope so. >> which means of course we have a political season coming on. let's just jump right into

it. how would you describe the current political landscape right now for both parties on encapitol hill? >> midterm elections almost always bad for the party in power and what happens is in a midterm election if your party has the white house and particularly alsohave the house and senate , you're likely to be satisfied, complacent, maybe a little disappointed but don't turn out in big numbers. if the other side won the last election you hate it. you want revenge. you want to get back in power. you hate everything the other side doing so your hyper motivated and in about 10 percent in the middle that don't lean, their independence that don't lean either way tend to bevery fickle and they tend to get buyers remorse . they vote against the party in power almost invariably. that's why midterm elections are the way they are. it's what isit , 37 out of 39

midterm elections since the civil war and 19 of the last 25 midterm elections in the senate. so it's even down to state legislatures it's that way. >> so right now democrats hold the whitehouse, senate and house . don't hold the white house because the white house has four elections. senate and the house, but first start with the senate. what does it look like for the democrats? >> they can't afford to lose anything. it's 50-50. i think if you were going to say the over under, there's a 50 percent chance it will be worse for democrats and lose two or three and a 50 percent chance it will be better but two or three is sort of the median point in the senate and in the house i'd say net loss of 20 seats would be the

over under in the house. and obviously five will tip it over so it's looking pretty tough for democrats. >> what are the particular vulnerable seats in the senate right now? >> democrats are defending four seats wthey have to worry about. arizona, mark kelly. rockdale warnock. catherine cortez must and maggie in new hampshire. so those are the four. after the horrible life for them yto lose or come close to losing anything else. for republicans it's more open seats. open seats at north carolina. pennsylvania, ohio. one income is, ron johnson in wisconsin. and there are circumstances that misery could get interesting,something like that . >> are there any particular places in races in the house you're following closer than others?

>> not really. it's the small, the thing is the universe of competitive house races is getting vesmaller and smaller . so it will probably be fewer than 2000 and the entire senate and there have been times the 50, 60, 7080 but i'd say any democrat that one by more if you one by five or six, seven points or less your insole or if by anyone your districtby less than 10 points let's say you want to be paying close attention . >> that's a perfect segue to talking about president by. we've seen the presidents job approval rating, they seem to be getting lower every week. how does that affect the upcomingmidterm election should we be attention to these numbers as far out from

an election ? >> actually donald trump is the only president that actually gained in approval rating from this point to the november midterm election . they almost all go down at that point. my guess is president biden's numbers are probably about rock-bottom averaging about 41, high 30s, mid-40s but averaging about 41, 42 and that's a bad place to be. that means typically it means your side is demoralized. the independents are not going to come your side, your way and that usually translates into a bad number but you watch the presidents job approval rating, the conventional ballot test. those would be pulling lies two of the best measurements of which way the wind is blowing and is it light, moderate or heavy?

>> let me take a second to remind our viewers can take part in this conversation. we're going to open up our regular lines that means republicans, your line will be 202-748-8000 one. democrats, you can call 202748 8000. independents, your lives 202 748 8002. keep in mind you can always text us at 202 48 8003. we're always on social media, on twitter c-span and on facebook at facebook.com/c-span. right now the republicans are running ads that seem to be focusing on inflation. how much of an issue will inflation be inthe midterm elections this year ? >> a better question would be will there be any other issue e other than inflation? it's normal for people to vote the economy to have a

big impact on things but i think people tend to underestimate how powerful inflation is. if you think about it, post-world war ii average unemployment rate has been in under six percent . which means that low unemployment would be four or less w. i unemployment would be eight wor more so it's a four difference but 100 percent of people are impacted by inflation. like 25 times more and whether you're underemployed, retired student, whatever your old impacted by inflation and it's just dramatically more. to the extent the biden administration was seen as focused on job creation as the inflationary pressure started picking up at a lot of voters say were not going to have any, it will be

little, it will be transitory, that sort of thing and that's just eating them alive right now. >> i want to show an ad at the republican national committee has been running attacking president biden on spending and inflation. here's the ad. >> food, gas, housing. inflation is through the roof. how did this happen? biden said his spending plan would save america. biden said this money would go towards saving jobs, fighting the pandemic so why are americans worse off? where did the money go? >> broward county broke ground on a new luxury hotel using millions of taxpayer dollars intended for release . >> democrats use relief money to battle their projects, $140 million tobuild a hotel . millions in payments convicted criminals, millions for taxpayer did advertising campaigns and now tsbiden wants

to spend more higher prices, wasteful spending and noilaccountability . democrats moare hurting hard-working americans . >> how effective are those ads when it comes to the midterm elections . >>. >> people feel this in their daily lives so they don't need much of an ad to remind them but it does store them up. the thing is we were heading into when the coronavirus hit , we're staring into the abyss and the republican congress passed and president signed one coronavirus package in march 2020. the fed with monetary policy pumping money into the economy and when democrats took over in march 2021, they put in yet another coronavirus release package f and basically to steal a line from larry summers they

hadn't filled the bathtub, it was too much stimulus. as a result they created too much demand. inflation goes by so it was the cumulative impact of a lot of stimulus from different quarters but biden and the democrats were ones that put it over the top with the most recent of those sort of three elements of fighting the coronavirus in terms of htstimulating the economy and lessening the impact. >> which brings me perfectly to my next question. t how much does the covid-19 pandemic affect the midterm elections? can democrats say we're trying to get this country over the pandemic? does that work at this point or is the pandemic yesterday's news? >> i think the pandemic affected all kinds of things and then those affect the election but i have a theory of issue contamination that

eowhen people get mad at the president let's say about one thing that's important to them, if they get mad about one thing it can contaminate how they view that president on everything else though no matter how great a job you may be doing on handling the russian invasion or coronavirus or anything else, if people are mad at you on inflation or more people are mad on inflation nothing else matters. >> which brings us to this and that the democratic party's house majority pack is running. i want to see what you think about this. here's the new ad from the house majority democratic party highlighting democrats accomplishments . >> two years ago we were in at crisis. democrats rescued the economy. they just single year gain on record, 7.9 million in jobs, a record drop in unemployment. now that democrats are tackling gas prices by releasing 1 million barrels

of oil a day from our reserves and faster $35 a month on insulin. democrats are getting things done to create jobs and lower costs. house majority pack is responsible for this. >> if i'm hearing you inflation is really all that for democrats . >> it's stepping on any other messaging they're trying to do and it's just sort of in some elections you got the wind at your back and you win everything that's close and everything and then sometimes it's in your face suddenly you lose all the close ones. you lose once you don't expect. that sort of thing but you can't get any messaging through. i think this is really more a case of maybe we hear pollsters say that democrats didn't deliver what they promised and the focus is usually on the delivery. i would argue given how close the houses that are wondering the past anything it was more

of anoverpromising and under delivering . they had proposed an agenda that had some really good things that would benefit lots of people but it's an agenda you would pass if you had 60 seats in the senate, not 50. if you have 282 members in the house, not 222 h hit's an fdr lbj agenda with microscopic majorities and having won the presidency 132,000 votes in or states. so they kind of got overextended. >> let's let some of our viewers take part. we'llstart with will was calling from portland me . on the democrat line. will, good morning. >> hi charlie. you've talked about federal races but i'm wondering what you see going on in governors races b. are they going to be insulated from the biden

negativity and what impact will these governorsraces as far as being a firewall for the democrats inthe presidential race ? >> that's a great question . it used to be that state elections, governor state led legislature , attorney general, they were pretty insulated from whatever was going on nationally and federally but we are increasingly becoming more and more parliamentary where people are just voting straight tickets or there either voting or not voting or voting straight tickets so that now there is a very strong correlation between what's going on nationally and what happens in governors races. wso in your case governor mills have to be very careful because if republicans are coming out of the woodwork, if democrats are turning out in big numbers and if independents are in asour

mood , then she's got a problem. jared blgolden has a problem if that's the configuration. you see that a lot. there are, that this turned around. there are five governorships that we have that the cook political report has rated, five democrats that are close-ups. governor kelly in kansas, with in michigango. evers in wisconsin and the "in pennsylvania and then mills in maine would be inthe next category . i >> .. th and there's brian kemp, and, down in georgia who's got, it's

complicated. [laughing] >> facebook status, it's called with your. >> ease issues coming out in from the left and the right. my hunch is he survives. >> host: what did we learn about the gubernatorial races in america by glenn duncans victory in virginia? did we learn anything new about what these races will be like in the midterm? >> guest: that's part of answer i should've gotten to th last question. it had to do with the motivation, and the thing is,on you know, terry mcauliffe was tried to come back to the governorship. he had been a good governor. he didn't make any big mistakes or anything. it was about democrats being down, because president biden had been, number seven dropping since july of lastin year here young can get a textbook example of how to walk this line where

you're not embracing former president trump where you are inheriting his enemy but at the same time you're not pushing away from him so that you antagonize his supporters. so for any republican running in a competitive state or district, i would say watch out glenn youngkin handled it because he finessed it very, very well. that's a thin line, thin line to walk but he managed to do it very, very well. in democrat that was in denial about having problems, the virginia governor's race and the new jersey close call governor's race of what happened the legislature should event a wake-up call. >> host: since we broughthtll it up let's talk about it now. how does former president donald trump affect these midterms? >> guest: it interesting, and i don't know whether it is being off twitter of what but he's not

part of the day-to-day story. he's not driving news the way he did before. i think there is a core element, just make up a number, a third of republicans that will be loyal to him, no matter what. what i think of the other let's call it two-thirds, as much as they may orr may not like or may like some of the things he says or his general positioning, i think the enthusiasm for him among them has come down. so i think you are not going to see trump people winning every single republican primary the way it might have looked a few months ago. he's not becoming unpopular with the republican base, but the enthusiasm level among many is coming down some, that they may think, you know, i would like to have somebody who is kind of like him but maybe not with the personality, you know, they be not was sort of the behavioral

things. but whoever wins the republican nomination in 124, presidential, they will be somebody with a trump messaging on theil republican side, whether it's him or whethern it's not. >> host: let's talk to jim, who was calling from new york on the republican line. jim, good morning. >> caller: morning. mr. cook, i i just want to red the viewers, did you work as a democratic staffer at one point? >> guest: back in the 1970s and early 80s \80{l1}s{l0}\'80{l1}s{l0} i been an independent since the start the newsletter in 1984. >> caller: you are hardlync independent. you've got on prior to the presidential elections last year and youpr said that, that the presidential race would be called thehe night of the

elections. you tried to discourage republicans from voting. and the fact is they had to stop voting in several states and order to get all these illegal ballots into a lack biden. and i really honestly think they're trying to do the same thing. they are trying to give the press the republican vote, because there's going to be away larger wave than 20 seats in the house of representatives. the senate will probably be pretty close, but honestly, i think you are being very dishonest and trying to suppress the vote, and i don't think your record on the presidential election last year was very good at all tragicas well, it's interesting, if somebody was going to be mad at me for depressing the vote, i think it would be democrats right now because we are looking at

something that's happily bringy much of a wave year in favor of republicans, and the only reason why it won't go to 40 or 50 or 60 seats, will not likely go, is there are fewer competitive races than that used to be, plus republicans won 13 in the last elections of their starting from a bigger, from a larger base. but i mean i do know it sounds to me like there's some doubt in the callers might to this day of who won the 2020 presidential. at midnight i think most of us kind of knew what was going to happen, and just to go back to the caller, show me a judge, show me a prosecutor who was found any significant amount, i mean, any amount of significant voter fraud that would've changed any outcome whatsoever. i mean, these are conspiracy theorists, but it was, you know,

it's interesting. you are used to getting attack by the side that is about to lose an election. and when you say this site is probably going to win it, it's kind of weird for me trying to get attacked to suppress their vote. i don't understand the caller. i do think understand where he's coming from, but i think sometimes people are looking for a cheerleader. they are not looking for an analyst. >> host: polling and pollsters have been attacked over i think the past decade now, as we have seen in presidential elections, midterm elections, gubernatorial elections. defend your industry right now. because it has notca gone a goo, rap over the last decade or so. >> guest: i'm not a pollster did appear in a previous life i was one but i use them. look, there are no questions, there are issues and problems in a polling sector we have known a

long time, but the 2016 and 20 presidential, yeah, there were some, problems there but not quite as many people think. 2018, the polling was dead on. it was just dead on. it was the two that president trump's name is on the ballot, those were the two, and it typically was states that you knew president trump is going to win, states that you knew biden was going to win, they went democratic. and w what happened is a lot of times the ones that are really, really close break one directiot and that's exactly what happened. i mean, and in 2016 the presidency was settled by 78,000 votes in three states this last time it was 132,000 votes in four states. those are closed elections, but the general direction of individual state for the most part, they typically go the way

the pulse say in the way they were expected. but polling is an inexact field, but it's not nearly as far off -- i think a lot of people equate in presidential elections the popular vote with the electoral college. and no national poll even attempts to say what happens with the electoral college. >> host: exactly. let's go back to our phone lines and let's talk to john who was calling from vicksburg michigan. john, good, morning. >> caller: good morning. how are you doing? want to ask mr. cook's opinion on this. i believe that in politics timing is everything. and i believe that jamie raskin has kind of tip the hands of the democrats, and i think that what the plan is, is to drop a bunch of subpoenas and charges on

republicans just prior to the o midterms to try to sway the vote at that time. what does he think about that? >> guest: i don't think january 6th is going to change any minds from this point forward. i don't think there are any events that can happen from this point forward. i mean, the people that are capable of being outraged were outraged long ago, and the people that haven't been outraged are not likely to get outraged.. and so i think this election is going to be a whole lot more about inflation or whatever. for democrats to try to do whatever you can do but that's not my job to tell them what they should or should not do. my job is to say what looks liks it may work or won't work. i think trying to steer voters away from an election being a

referendum up or down on who has the office right now, and in this case, inflation. i don't think that anything is going to steer this election any other way other than being decided on those elements. >> host: in presidential election years we always hear about october surprises. does that equate to midterms? do we see major news late and a cycle that changes the races like we expect to see in a presidentialla year? october sut of times when it is used, each side's base believes there is nothing too low that the other party would not do to try to affect elections. it is the ultimate cynicism. having said that, i think the october surprise in 2020 was after president did so badly in that debate september 29, you

started seeing the blue wave. the democrats were going to add to their majority in the house. they were going to win the senate. biden was going to win easily. all of this blue wave talk, i think it created a backlash in the sense that a lot of these independents were thinking i am ok with replacing president trump. i'm willing to give biden the keys to the car but not a full tank of gas or a credit card. defund the police, democratic socialism, pack the supreme court. there were second thoughts about the blue wave. i think that was the october surprise of 2020. host: one of our social media followers has a question they want you to address.

this person wants to know, can you talk about the impact of abortion policy platforms on the midterm elections? guest: another question i get asked is, what could possibly change where this election seems to be headed? the only thing i can think of would be if the supreme court throws out roe v. wade lock, stock, and barrel. i am not sure it would, but that is about the only thing i can come up with. keep in mind, a lot of states, new york state, california, illinois, they are not going to change their laws. other states. the abortion issue is the one thing that could cause a detour.

but if the court just nibbles or moves it from trimester to -- they could make some changes but not enough, so i am not even sure that will. that is the only thing i can come up with. the only known unknown, to borrow the dawn rumsfeld phrase. host: let's talk to fran calling from wisconsin. on the democrats mind. good morning. caller: good morning. i have a couple of short comments to make. if you would please let me get through the comments and then mr. cook can talk about it. first of all, it was nothing but propaganda. it is not surprising because

their supporters eat up the propaganda. the other thing is nobody ever mentions gerrymandering. it is all about how the republicans are going to take the election. what about gerrymandering? to me, those are not victories. the other thing is we know what the republicans are up to. we know what trump is up to. people better wake up because nothing is going to matter in this country if we lose our democracy and rights and independence. nothing is going to make a difference. inflation, high gas prices, nothing, if we lose our democracy. people better wake up in this country. we see how any people are ok with what happened on january 6. that is pathetic that these

people are still living in this country and going along with donald trump. guest: let's start off with the caller says the rnc ads were propaganda. ok. host: all ads are propaganda. guest: propaganda is what the other side does. it is like dark money. dark money is largely unreported, unlimited money spent on behalf of the other party. if it is spent on behalf of my party, it is concerned citizens wanting to improve the country. there is plenty of hypocrisy on both sides, which is a good segue to gerrymandering. i think more than campaign finance or anything else, i think gerrymandering is the

biggest political reform or one of the two that would be most important to do. republicans did it fairly well in a bunch of places. democrats did in new york and ellen neu -- illinois. usually, if they have a chance, they will unless there is a compelling reason not to. one reason they did better in redistricting than expected is there were a bunch of states where it republicans through the line 10 years ago, they decided to shore up weaker districts instead of trying to grab every additional when they possibly can. if i could wave a magic wand, i would have every state do it

exactly the way iowa does. i think that is the textbook way that it should be done. the other political reform. i would go to district-based counting on presidential. the whole country do like nebraska and maine. if you win the congressional district, you get that elector. and then, whoever carries the state. we will not get rid of the electoral college. but at the same time, it does bother people when one side wins more votes than the other. this would be a better way to do it. in terms of trump, i think this election is going to be more about president biden than president trump. if it is about president trump, that will not be a good outcome for republicans. i would say to the caller that you feel passionately about this. as a democrat, you should.

you should do everything you can to get people like you to turn out. nbc news combined their january and march surveys and found it was 46% each. normally, democrats have a natural edge. even is not a good place. when they asked people 1-10 how much interest you have in this election, of the people who said 9 and 10's, the most likely voters, republicans had the lead. i would say to that caller that you need to find a lot more people like you and make sure they vote since you feel as passionate as you do. you need to get the enthusiasm level up for democrats up to the point where it is for republicans. host: there are many primaries coming up in may.

which ones are you watching? guest: oh, gosh. north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania is coming up. we have a whole bunch. i think we will be watching the ohio senate primary. and the pennsylvania senate on the republican side or both sides. i don't think democrats are going to get their best candidate in pennsylvania. i think lieutenant governor federman is more likely to win the nomination. i am not sure he would be the strongest candidate. the ohio republican primary. it is like a dumpster fire. who knows what will come out of it? north carolina, i think the weaker republican will probably win the republican primary in north carolina. but i think given this environment, even the weaker republican is more likely to win

the general election. host: let's look specifically at ohio. i want to show an add from j.d. vance. here is his add touting his endorsement from former president trump. [video clip] >> donald trump has officially endorsed j.d. vance. he will continue trump's fight to protect our borders and stop joe biden. president trump's endorsed america first conservative. >> trump fought back and so have i. now, i will take our fight to the u.s. senate. host: he had a rally with president trump last night. did that tipped the needle in j.d. vance's way in the primary? guest: because it is such a big

primary field, something like former president trump jumping in is a huge boost. just as sure as the sun is going to come up in the east tomorrow, you will see ads of vance back in 2016 attacking donald trump. trying to say he is not trumpian enough, you will see other republicans running ads like that. it is trying to tap down the trump people on his behalf. it is such a big primary. he was not doing well before. i think it will probably be a pretty big boost. host: senator mitch mcconnell of kentucky has recently warned the gop takeover of the senate is at risk if the party nominates what he calls unacceptable candidates.

what is mitch mcconnell worried about? guest: back in 2010, the obama midterm election, and the tea party movement was really coming-of-age, and you had this fabulous year for republicans, and yet, they lost two key u.s. senate races in delaware and nevada because republican primary voters nominated exotic and potentially problematic candidates. republicans had a great year but they were short of a majority because of who they nominated in those two states. two years later in 2012, it happened again. indiana, missouri. again, they came up short of a majority because they nominated candidates who had kind of unusual views. if you nominate the wrong person, it can make a difference

even in a great environment. i think that is what senator mcconnell is interested in. you can love him, you can hate him, but there is no gauze. he is a very clear-eyed person. if you are a republican voter, you are curious, who is the most electable candidate? i would look and see which way mcconnell's super pac, the senate leadership fund, that would be a good tipoff on who they think would be there strongest candidate. host: let's go back to our phone lines and talk to gary calling from jacksonville, florida, on the democrat line. good morning. caller: good morning. it also happened in 2020 in georgia. no message got through to the people. i called about mccarthy and his

cowardice behind the scenes, how he complained about donald trump and his actions led to the insurrection in 2020, january 6 of 2021. just the cowardice. they censored adam kinzinger and liz cheney because they had the guts to stand up against trump. what he did was absolutely wrong and unconstitutional. there is no republican backbone among the leaders. thank you. guest: to me, the reaction various elected republican officials had in a week or two afterwards was like a truth serum. lots of them said what they thought. but when they started seeing their base was not reacting in

that way, you saw some of them jump back in and start currying favor with then president trump. you saw others that would quiet down and decided to keep it to themselves. liz cheney sort of kept it up. you look at mccarthy and mcconnell where mcconnell has not spoken to donald trump since that day. mccarthy said critical things about president trump after january 6 paid when he realized the base did not react that way, he comes back into the trump column. mcconnell basically decided not to yell as loudly and be as critical as he was. liz cheney showed the acorn does not fall for far from the tree.

she is not going to run from a fight. you can agree or disagree with her, but she is just like her dad. host: quickly, democrats or republicans take the senate? guest: i think both the house and senate are going republican. what ought to scare the heck out of democrats is let's say republicans have a 52-48 majority, you go into 2024, there are 23 democratic seats up, 10 republican seats. what is worse for democrats is there are seven democratic senate seats up in states donald trump carried in 2016 or 2020. there is not a single republican seat up that hillary clinton or joe biden carried. whatever bad happens to democrats this november could be compounded in 2024.

there's never a good time to have a bad election. this is a bad time to have a bad election. >> host: we would like to thank charlie cook of the cook political report and "national journal" for coming on with us this morning discussing campaign 2020 and the political news of the day. charlie, it's it's great to see you. >> guest: thanks for having me. >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by the television companies and more, including wow. >> the world has changed. today asked reliable internet connection is something no one can live without so wow is therefore our customers with speed, reliability, value and choice. now more than ever it all starts with great internet. >> wow support c-span as a public service, along with these other television providers, giving you a front-row seat to democracy. >> the senate returns today at .

lawmakers will debate several of president biden's federal preserve nominees including lael brainard to serve as vice chair. also lisa cook who if confirmed will become the first black woman to serve on the fed board. the house returns tomorrow at two p.m. eastern. later members will vote on legislation to streamline the process for lending and leasing weapons to ukraine. the house may also take a president biden supplemental request for military aid for ukraine. if it's ready for for action. watch live coverage of the house on c-span, the senate on c-span2, online at c-span.org or with our our free video rapn now. >> a senate vote on whether to advance lael brainard nomination to be vice chair of the federal reserve comes up at 5:30 p.m. eastern today. here's a look back at her confirmation hearing before the senate banking committee. lawmakers on the panel also considered the love nomination said thompson to be director of the federal housing finance agency. this is about two and a half