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>> we welcome back to our desk, jacob of the nonpartisan race rating and analysis group inside elections. joining us this morning at the start of a very busy month when it comes to mud term primaries. -- midterm primaries. is that calendar, like it seems like everything else is this elections cycle, has that been impacted by the redistricting process? are we seeing more primaries this month than we usually do for a may? >> guest: every state determines its own scheduling over the course of the election season when they hold their primaries, when their filing dates are. and in certain instances, the states that haveta scheduled to have the earliest primaries, a state like north carolina, for instance, which is coming up in a few weeks, was originally supposed to hold their primary habout two months earlier. but because of ongoing litigation aboutgo the redistricting process which

itself had been delayed because of the reapportionment process, they got pushed back. so, yes, it's a more concentrated schedule than perhaps we're used to because of a whole cascading set of issues to over the last year. >> host: and it begins tomorrow in the thesier state and the buckeye -- hoosier state, and the buckeye state. who is the expected candidate that's going to be trying to holdte that republican senate st that rob portman is giving up? >> guest: it's looking like least a two-man race for the top spot, potentially a three-man race. j.d. vance, the venture capitalist and memoirist, obviously securing that trump endorsement was a bug boose -- big boost to his campaign. he has been polling first for the first time throughout the entire campaign. josh mandel, the former state treasurer who's run for senate before, is a well known figure in the state, continues to be one of the temperature polling candidates in that -- top polling candidates. and then perhaps the most

interesting developmentek is mat dolan who's part owner of the cleveland guardians' baseball team who is the only candidate running as a perhaps post-trump candidate rather than a pro-trump candidate who has spent many millions on campaign ads. he has started to see a bump in the polls as well. >> host: "the wall street journal" told talking aboutl l e month of primaries. may primaries test trump's sway mt. gop -- in the gop, is the headline. and therehe you see. >> -- there you see j.d. vance in that list of pictures. an interesting development as well when with it comes to donald trump was a club for growth ad that came outta seem -- out that seemed to ding donnell trump for his support -- donald trump. i want to play that. >> i'm a never trump guy. >> has trump seen this?

>> president trump tweeting -- >> a surprise endorsement of mitt romney. >> how'd that turn out? >>. look, i love trump, but he's getting it wrong with j.d. vance too.o. >> people wouldn't -- would have voted for trump if it weren't for racist reasons. >> we've got our own eyes and our own ears. j.d. vance is a fraud. >> club for growth is responsible for the copp tent of ad -- con tenter of this ad. >> guest: the club for growth and donald trump have had very fractious relationship over the alcourse of the last half decad. originally, the club was one of the most prominent anti-trump groups in the primary, they butted heads quite a few times in that race. after trump won, like the rest of the republican establishment, the club came around and became one of his most vociferous supporters. however, the club still does

adhere to perhaps a greater degree of ideological rigor than president trump when selecting candidates, and the club has been onboard for josh mandel since the very beginning of this race. they were very clear that no matter who the president enors doered, the former president endorsed, they would be sticking by josh mandel. and so this has become one of the few race rahs where the club and trump have have diverged and are now very much going at it in a public way. we're not necessarily used to since the 2016 rex. >> host: and we'll see how much more tonight. georgia republican senate debate is being hosted by the atlanta press club. 7 p.m. eastern is when that is, and you can watch it on c-span, c-span.org and on the free c-span now video app. what will you beap looking for n thatat debate? >> guest: the georgia senate race, herschel walker, the former university of georgia football star, heisman trophy winner,, endorsed by former president donald trump, he's

actually not going to be there. he has adopted a strategy of avoiding debates, doing very few public appearances, certainly very few news interviews and really none outside of friendly media outlets. and that is a strategy designed to preserve his lead in that race where he currently looks poised to win the primary without aut runoff, exceeding tt 50% threshold.. and that's because he's not the most experienced candidate. he's never run for office before. he does have a habit of putting his boot in his mouth at certai. so their campaign is really trying to keep him under wraps as much as they can in a managed environment until they absolutely have to bring him out in the general election. >> host: the peach state primary, may 24th, the same day as alabama and arkansas. that's the bookend here of a month of primaries from the indiana and ohio races that are taking place tomorrow. all ofre talking about

them in this 45 minutes with jacob of inside elections. are let me invite viewers to join in the conversation. democrats, 202-748-8000, republicans, 8ing 001, independents, 80002. let us know what races you want to focus on, what you're watching especially if you're in some of these cay states to holding their -- key states. we mentioned ohio, we mentioned georgia, pennsylvania having its primaries this month as well. pennsylvania will be may 17th. what are you watching for many that key senate race? >> guest: pennsylvania's one of the few states on the map where we've got competitive primaries on both the democratic and the republican side. percent most part, democrats have done a good job of avoiding competitive primaries, but at least two states -- one of which is wisconsin, the other of which is pennsylvania -- they do have competitive primaries that they are sorting through. in addition toim the republican race which has seen a celebrity

surge in dr. mehmet oz, david mccormack, each spending upwards of $20 million of their own personal funds on really nasty campaigns for the republican nomination. sore trump has endorsed dr. oz o had not been the polling leader. that race now looks tied up again, but there's a lot of money flowing into that state. david mccormack still has a very real shot of winning that race. and whoever wins it, whoever wins the democratic primary which at the moment is looking like lieutenant governor john fetterman, they will be in for one of the most competitive races in the fall. >> host: a republican pray mare, one of the ads from dr. oz, the trump-endorsed candidate. this is dr. oz. >> you've seen ads lying about me. yes, i worked in tv which taught me how to fight the woke media with. i've taken on pharma, facebook and fauci to protect you. you know who else were from

hollywood? the two greatest presidents in history, conservative outsiders. this scares people from the wall street, washington revolving door like dave mccormack, peopleic who don't share our values. don't be scared by the swamp. i'm dr. oz, and i approved this message. >> host: state residents seeing that ad, and as you mentioned, it looks like a two-man race with dave mccormack. here's a recent ad if from him. >> the real mehmet oz. >> hillary clinton, one of the smartest people i've ever met. dr. fauci is too, a wonderful scientist. i loved working many china. challenging your beliefs about what it means to be male or female. how do we cope guns out of to -- keep guns out of the wrong people's hands? we haven't had any interaction with president trump at all. >> mehmet oz, a complete and total from fraud.

>> host: jacob, on those ads and the a amount of ad spending in this race as well. >> guest: yeah. this has been, if ohio didn't exist, i think this would be the most expensive republican primary contest in history. it is certainly one of the most expensive. what we're seeing here is a real tension between, again, the more conservative, policy-oriented wing of the republican party and the trump wing ofar the republin party which is still very much in the driver's seat. sometimes those two get conflated as equals, and in this day and age they're simply not. but what we're seeing from dr. oz is he's really had to counter these perceptions that he's a liberal, he's a hollywood guy, he's not from pennsylvania, and he has a lot of positions that he's taken over his two-decade-long-plus career on tv the when he's been on tv every single day talking about the issues that are not traditional conservative or even

modern conservative stances to be taking on all those issues we i saw there. things like transgender rights and gun rights and things of that nature. so he's been trying very hard to combat those perceptions. he's been using the trump endorsement as a shield to deflect those criticisms where dave mccormack has been trying to inform voters that he's not just the friendly celebrity surgeon you've been seeing on your tv all these years, not just trump's buddy, but he is, in fact, a liberal out of stater trying to come in and buy a senateme seat. >> host: that pennsylvania race in the area, about $40 million spent. again, this is just the primary in that republican primary. you mentioned ohio though taking the top spot when it comes to total spending. the ohio republican primary somewhere mt. area of $60 million -- in the area are of $60 million. these numbers compiled by "the wall street journal." what races do you want to talk

about? we'll head to athens, ohio. anna on our line for democrats, good morning. >> hi, good morning. and i would ask your guest to speak about the redistricting issue many ohio in regard -- in ohio in regard to the decision by the ohio supreme court calling the redistricting unfair and yet it still stands. and then as a very concerned voter, i really dig deep into the candidates. i'm a dem, and so in the primary i'll be voting for john cannily. i went to hear debate at central state when him and nan whaley, and he just stands far above nan whaley in regard toan his work many cincinnati with the big solar farm, the innocence project which, you know, i think his group has gotten 345 people

out of -- 34 people out of prison. he is really steadfast. and then what i know about knapp whaley is -- nan whaley is not helping ael 75% black district n dayton where a 93-year-old hospital was being torn down called good samaritan. she did not do anything about thatat as well as the fbi has described the dayton, dayton officials as a culture of corruption. and so my research, i just -- i'm so going with john cranl everything y, and i end encourage ohio voters to do the same, because he has an incredibly steadfast and very compassion mate record, quite r frankly. so if you could talk about that redistricting issue, i would appreciate it. >> host: happy to focus on governors' races as well. i know we've focused on congressional ones, but go ahead. >> guest: yeah. ohio is one of these states that

has had a very tortured redistricting process. in 2018 voters approved a new redistricting setup that involved both the state legislature expect backup commission -- and the backup commission and in certain cases the state's supreme court. but voters wanted to see bipartisanip majorities pass the maps, so they included provisions that had trip wires for additional steps if these maps weren't bipartisan, additional requirements that they had to meet. given the current political climate, there was never really any likelihood that there was going to beod a bipartisan map,o republicans took theep process o the extreme, did not make good faith efforts with democrats to draw maps on either the congressional or the state legislature level. as a result, the state supreme court stepped in and tossed all of the maps, the congressional maps, the state legislature maps. however, on the congressional district side the state came back with another set of maps,

andck while the supreme court hs not approved those maps, they have scheduled hearings on them for after tomorrow's primary. so, in effect, they have ceded that that the maps will be in place for at least one election cycle before they hear those challenges. and then they could overturn them, send the state back to the drawing boardto ahead of 2024. the unique thing about ohio's maps is given the way that they were passed, with only republican votes, these maps were already going to expire after 2024 and have to be redrawn.d so it'sbe a very messy process. ohio is one of the really emblematic states of how reticketting can be -- redistricting can be a complex and as yet unresolved experiment and exercise that every sate has go to -- state has to go through. >> host: how the are the chances to unseat corporate democratic chantal brown?

will she have enough money to counter the huge amount of money the giant corporate interests are shoving into brown's campaign in. >> guest: so this is a rematch in ohio's 11th district, cleveland-based seat, of a special election we saw happen last year to replace representative marcia fudge who joinedud biden's cabinet. at that time it was an open seat, and nia turner, are prominent bernie sanders surrogate, was the favorite heading into that race. she had raised upward of $6 million. she had support from pretty much the entire national progressive movement, everyone from bernie sanders on down. chantal brown was a fairly unknown cuyahoga city councilwoman, and she was able to orchestrate a come from behind visibly, erase the large polling levered the course of that campaign and win by about 5 points on election day in the primary.

she's now the congresswoman for that district. and as an incumbent, she's bringing in quite a few advantages thathe she didn't hae last time, things like an endorsement from president joe biden, from the professional caucus, and as an incumbent, her colleagues seem less likely to really go to the mats to rye and up seat her. so a lot of the congressional support from people like alexandria ocasio-cortez and the rest of the members of the squad has not shown up for nina turner. in quite the same way as they did when this wasz an open seat. so she's in an unfamiliar position here of being the underdog. and it was brown who was trying to pull off the upset last year, now it really is nina turner who is fighting the uphill battle to up seat an incumbent congresswoman and win race. >> host: members usually don't try to get involved and defeat other members except when redistricting puts them in the

same district. give us a couple examples of that this month. >> guest: so the the big story that i'm watching many redistricting this month is actually the happening in west virginia which is not a state of competitive races, it is such a republican s race. but west virginia lost a seat in the reapportionment process this cycle because it was one of the few states in the country that lost population. it was bump down from three districts to two districts. who of the congressmen from west virginia were drawn into the tsame district which encompasss the northern half of the state. they are both run against each other in the republican primary and battle lines there, there are just so many different stories that have gone into that race. it's a generational contest. it's a regional contest. mckinley is from the northern pan handle, mooney is from maryland by way of the eastern

panhandle. it is a temperament contrast between the more reserved mckinley and the more boyce if rouse mooneyment -- boisterous. but like everything in the party, it's also a debate about donald trump because donald trump has endorsed alex mooney if who voted to overturn the results of the 20 election. he is -- trump is against dave mckinley, a more moderate member. i don't think anyone would describe him as moderate, but he did not vote to overturn the election. he voted for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and he has support from guys like joe manchin who actually crossed party lines in this primary to support mckinley and cut an ad for mckinley in that primary. so i'll be watching that to see, again, a test of former president trump's power within such a republican state and such a republican primary electorate. >> host: are these members who liked each other before hay got

pitted gwen each other? >> guest: no. -- against each other? >> guest: no. i think this has been, this was not unforeseen. everyone kind of knew that west virginia was in pretty door straits when it im-- dire straits when itn came to redistricting. early estimates of population from the american community survey, and west virginia was clearlyes going to lose that thd seat.ng and it was widely expected at least in state that it would be mckinley and mooney who were bumped together the rather than the thursday district, representative carol miller in the southern part of the state. andar so i think both guys were gearing up for this fight for a while. a mooney very clearly has his eye on the 2024 senate race, and hay, they seem to be cordial, but at the same time these are not two best friends who are now, tragically, pitted together by circumstance. ..

every candidate on the stage the georgia 2020 president election -- rec the governor certified a rigged election. every candidate on the stage verified that the 2020 presidential vote in georgia was rigged. and they all confronted camp and he never denied it. so that election happened the same way all over the country. it was rigged. you need to watch 2000 mules which is produced which is coming out tomorrow or sometime

this week. so. next one in california, jacob? >> guest: the gubernatorial primary and georgia going on later this month of the incumbent governor formant center david produced challenging him in that primary. brian kemp is number one on former president trump because he certify the 2020 election which again was the most scrutinized election in american history specifically in georgia there is recount after recount after recount every single one pointing in the same direction which is joe biden narrowly clearly won the state of georgia despite donald trump's best efforts otherwise before the race after the race trying to control the secretary of state into finding those extra votes that trump needed to win. that is earned at bryant camp

the end of former president trump that said former senator david produced not been able to in a commanding position in that race thef latest pulling out of georgia would mean kemp would avoid primary runoff against perdue, when that race outright and set yourself up for a rematch against stacy abrams of the property david produced simply has been a disappointing candidate. is not been able to run the kind of race that i think a lot of people in trump's universe were expecting and hoping him to be able tobe do. cracks in the primary outright 50% plus one vote? >> that's right pickwick students werest of the debate rowville bar website viewers can watch c-span.org work mention the georgia republican senate debate taking place 7:00 p.m. tonight. 11:00 a.m. eastern this morning the republicans who would be participatingng in secretary of state race in georgia will be

debating as well for that also hosted by the atlanta press club, that happening at 11:00 a.m. eastern this morning and again the senate debate. a lot going on in georgia on the debate front who is next out of oregon, portland, oregon democrat good morning. >> caller: good morning how are you? i used to live in macon georgia and now i am in oregon. my comment and questions are prime about house races in oregon the other in the prime rate may in oregon or in november. organ is a small state skinner is a progressive candidate endorsed by elizabeth warner. an important race oil canning

endorsed by jane fonda's running for the open seat peter left a long time occupant of that race. the other one is an interesting, gainng oregon gained a seat. salinas is a house' majority leaderga including candidate has wall-to-wall tv ads apparently supported by $7 million in bit coin money. may be your guest may not be following organ is a small state. wonder ifth you have comments bt those three house raisins? through it ongoing to bet jacob has stopped. >> what's going on organ is super fascinating especially in the newest six district for this reapportionment process oregon gained a seat part of larger trend we have seen a population this was pacific northwest.

i knew showed up to be supported as the callers said several million dollars put into a super pack has been running more tv ads for him then pretty much here's the real sticking point with the house majority pack which is the democratic leadership aligned a super pack based out of washington d.c. that is charged with defending the house majority. very, very, very rarely the democratic primary magically open seat primaries. a large part of these limited disclosures the super pack have to make it.

he's a 30-year-old billionaire who found that a crypto currency market which is one of the largest crypto currencies exchange and he has really established himself as a major donor on the democratic seen in this race in races all across the country. and he certainly ruffling some feathers is putting in millions and millions of dollars in races like oregon at six for other one i want to touch on is mcleod skinner and schrader race this is another example of just how difficult to unseat an incumbent. jamie mccloud skinner is an accomplished candidate she ran for another organ house districts in 2018 per performed very well relative to the partisanship they interviewed a couple of months ago. she has a compelling case to

make however she is up against the weight of the democratic establishment in d.c. which is supporting schrader. one of the primary argument is the position on the modest squad or the moderate nine are unbreakable mind, that was a thorn and democratic leadership side last year about "build back better" in the infrastructure bill, his position on some of the pti prescription drug bills. those are no longer in the news anymore. while those were the dominant story in the fall back when jamie launched her campaign, there's other things on voters minds and now so she is having to work really hard to reintroduce those issues at the most salient ones in the primary. it's always an uphill battle to oust an incumbent inn congress. >> wanted test jacobs any congressional race in the country in a year end the redistricting has made a lot of

changes. i dare to find when he doesn't know much about republicans in (202)748-8001. independence (202)748-8002. he has with us about the next 15 or 20 minutes this morning so go ahead keep calling n, elliott new york city democratic go-ahead. >> caller: good morning this is a terrific segment your guest is full of knowledge but i have to ask a follow-up in oh six big money campaign, flynn has spent almost none of his own campaign money. almost all of the money has comf winning and what is it c an eigt candidate field? i'm just curious to know that i'll get to my sent if you don't cut me off. >> given the pennsylvania

question we can answer both. what's a pennsylvania question? >> caller: pennsylvania also it is big money and big money on both sides. in the primary both republican and democrat and will be big money. i am wondering how that favors the other side, which candidates benefits from the fact there is so much a money streaming in. and then also curious to know which canada on each side is more likely the candidate on the other side. the better chance for the democrat. >> guest: i'm cracks switch at there's real likelihood there's a democratic nominee and organ six given how it's an x

congressman from the district. i especially congressional primaries, money does matter. having more money than your opponents it's not his money it's money coming intoo support him from this different entity, the super pack. it is certainly beneficial for him to have millions of dollars in campaign ads being run in support of him in his district. whether it is enough to get a first time candidate who isn't really known by the political scene there across the finish line in such a crowded field, remains to be seen. but we certainly should not discount the possibility i think and pennsylvania the candidate that benefits the most from that money streaming and is the candidate for whom the money is supporting. in the case of the republican excuse meet senate primary is much as it used to be, doctor oz and david are going dollar for

dollar against each other. both of them filed their personalre financial disclosures recently. each of them has at least hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollarsar in assets they have been able to deploy thus far. and the real effect there has crowded out the other candidates who are running and that race but there are a group of three or four other candidates who have been in the race for the better part of a year. they simply have not been able toga gain traction now that the airwaves are flooded with ads from doctor as in david mccormick read democratic side, the fundraising and pullinghe leader. he looks pretty well-positioned to win that primary. as a real candidate he is a credible candidate has not been able to put together the financial operation to really make a late play ahead of this primary. when it comes to the general this is going to be highly competitive race as a republican leaning yearsti republicans even

the state is divided as pennsylvania. i think there are plenty of o opportunities for whoever the democratic nominee is to make a lot of issues the same things we are seeing in the republican primary. a lot of the attacks are going to see the general election nice little preview courtesy of doctor oz and david mccormick against each other.re sue and the unlimited funding you referred to their more important or prime rate that a general every democrat that comes through to go toe to toe with whoever the nominee is? >> even a guy like doctor oz to record it is much as four or million dollars in assets, youto will be able to dip into that money. a dollar doesn't go as much as a user could be upwards of 100 or $200 million themselves. we saw democratic candidates and

brazen hard money 100, 120, $130 million. so it matters more primary symbol because it's cheaper to advertise in a primary per there's less going on, on the airwaves pretty can be the only game in town or he gets the general, republicans are still pretty aware the democratic fundraising apparatus outstrips there's pretty special with a candidate like john federman who has been able to develop a nationwide grassroots donor network and be the fundraising leader he have the money he needs to compete and whether or not doctor oz or dave mccormick decide to cut themselves a check for eight figures, potentially -nine figures i don't know if they have those kinds of assets. both parties will still not lose for want of money. >> host: it's joe for democrats

good morning. >> caller: good morning pretty wonder why the electoral college overrules the popular vote. why does everybody on the republican party use of trumps name as a standing stone. cap they run on their own merits? >> the electoral college it seems like every four years we have this conversation. it's a way our country is always done elections. the base tablet that's the best way to do a presidential election. but it is the weight we have got and short of it really substantial change in the politics, out of the current government is the way were going to be working with for a long time in the future. campaigns are just going up to work around that and presidential races. the other thing the caller brought up was a donald trump in the republican primaries. another example of that is

happening in alabama. may 24 republican primary to replace outgoing senator richard shelby the republican whoever emerges will likely be the favorite in the general election pretty want to show viewers some ad campaigns in the republican primary for this is congressman who is running for thatt seat. >> since 2010, brooks is for the most conservative guys inwe washington. wheat, big spending, opera border republicans. there's a cost to being a true conservative and the swamp hates brooks. that is white mitch mcconnell spent over $50 million attacking him. washington winos do not want a senator they what the alabama conservatives do. >> and you had better believe i approve this message. >> congressman without ad, when that republicans he's facing in that primary, top staffer former

top staffer to senator richard shelby. this is one of her recent ads. >> illegal border crossings are at record high. the amount of fentanyl entering our country has increased by 4000%. and human traffickers are making millions a day selling women into prostitution. i am katy defect joe biden still has not been to this border is a disgrace. alabama center i'll fight to finish president trump's wall fan sanctuary cities and deport criminals and illegal aliens i approve this message because we must secure this border now. fax maybe some of the ads this is the one you told me it would be look at the current situation if you said to me six months ago i would've thought you were crazy six months ago donald trump had endorsed congressman moe brooks which is one of his fiercest offenders. january 6 and it really fiery

impassioned speech that lead for democrats to call for his resignation after the insurrection that day. katy and britt seem to be on trumps enemy list. he was issuing very dismissive statements against her and seemed to be working to get mo brooks across the finish line. fast forward six months on endorsed a mo brooks for being not faithful enough to the live at 2020 election was stolen which to anyone who knows mo brooks finds quite stunning. it is a quite stunning turn of events only because of mo brooks made a comment a couple months ago about how we needed to move on from 2020. w walk downtown, over to the shiny domee over there, most republicans are probably say the same thing. most republicans aren't relying on trumps endorsement to win a in alabama. so he hate on -- spending a lot

of money out really well produce campaign ads. he was part of the military operation that would later dramatize the black was one of the only survivors of those events in mogadishu and has established himself as perhaps the front runner in that race as mo brooks has faded without trumps an divorcement and katy britt who entered the race as the more establishment alternative former staffer to richard shelby very close ties former president to the alabama business council. she has come a note trumps endorsement is back up for grabs begun to pivot a little bit like we saw in that ad focusing on red meat issue like immigration, saying she's going to continue trumps a fight in washington d.c. trumps decisions you have scrambled the race, upset the calculus here for all three of these candidates are none of whom whome have his endorsemento approve who are still looking to

secure the end. >> that primary day, it may toy forth the same as primary day in georgia and arkansas as well tomorrow is indiana and ohio, 12 happening over the next 30 days can in south carolina, goose creek south carolina which one you want to talk about? next i want to talk about a couple of races. but also the u.s. senate race income but tim scott. and, you know, it's pretty much a ruby red every once and then but it's the exception not the rule. but tim scott i don't hear anything about that race. i am assuming the lack of publicity he must think he's got in the bag. you know about the democratt challenges running against? also the republicans.

>> host: got your question, let's let jacob jump in. >> guest: absolutely. tim scott obviously the incumbent senator there, he is very well-positioned for reelection. there are a few democrats running in that race tape represented krystal matthews is running. however, tim scott has amassed a war chest of approaching $28 million but a lotmo of that money i would wager is more likely to be used for campaign in 2024 not necessarily percentage then it will be in a race in 2022. south carolina republican state we saw democrats take a big swing at senator lindsey graham in 2020, jamie harrison race upward of $120 million to go at lindsey graham with, was unable to come close to a loss by about ten points. democrats areok really not lookg

at south carolina there looking at opportunity on this map especially given the unfavorable political environment and the public in late of the state.is in district one, that's a more interesting republican primary we got the incumbent congresswoman nancy mace who has really tried to walk a type rope between being a trump critic and a trump supporter. she is having some difficulty doing that. trump is actually come and has endorsed one of her challengers katy arrington who ran for the seat in 2018 actually lost the seat in a really amazing upset to a democrat and republican leaning district she is back, trying again she has already defeated one incumbent congressman in a primary in 2018 she beat congressman mark stanford who is viewed as being insufficiently pro- trump in 2022 she is trying to do the same with nancy mace and we will see how successful she is.

strong democratic candidate position and danny andrews. butin redistricting made this district a little bit more republican so special in the year like 2022 it is unlikely that any democrat candidate will be able to get over the finish line. but a m few minutes left of hooa questions and within sight election of the reporter and analyst their insight elections.com. we just talk about south carolina, head across the border to north carolina in the senate race there. >> of the north carolina senate race we have got a crowded republican primary. three of the former governor this is an open seat. >> richard burt is retiring for. >> exactly that it richard burt hang it up after couple terms in the night state senate patent open seat bite north carolina is a more competitive state. there will be a competitive general election ass well. the open seat attract a lot of

challengers on both sides initially. on the democratic side the field shas really cleared for former state supreme court justice her two most strong challengers both dropped out ahead of time heard she is going to the democratic nominee on their public incitement former governor pat who lost reelection in 2016 congressman ted at bud who is he trump endorsed canada and then former congressmand mark walker was at former tea party congressman who is redistricted out of his seat in 2018 is now back trying to run for the senate. this is one of these races were what we are talked about earlier today, really has come into effect toha those delays from redistricting and litigation because began this race with the polling lead and with a fundraising lead. he wasdr known statewide. ted budd not as many voters delete bit endorsed by donald trump if this primary had happened on the originally scheduled day i think he would have been the favorite.

but ted at bud got an additional two months.mo as allies of the club for growth which upward of $14 million in support of him had an additional two months to get that trump endorsement in front of more voters, introduce ted budd two more voters we have seen he has taken a lead in the primary polling and looks to be in pretty strong position heading into election day. >> one of the things insight election does is race ratings, showing where they think each of these races stand when it comes to north carolina, open seat that richard burt is leaving currently placing in the republican category, why not in that tossup? what word you need to see from democrats to makegu it an even closer race? >> threesome of got north carolina a little bit of a different position some of his other states you mentioned is

that this is a slightly more republican leaning states that the cuts can win elections current incumbent governor is a governor he was one of the only democrats to win in 2020. donald trump carried20 the state senator thom tillis defeated democratic nominee kal cunningham in a race that was also highly competitive. sherry beasley was a democratic nominee lost her reelection race in 2020 by a margin of only a couple hundred votes. but she still did lose and that just underscores how difficult it is for democrats to get over the finish line in that state it can happen it's less common than in a state like pennsylvania or certainly in the democratic health states the states they're arty defending for think the other thing going on here as this is going to be a good year for republicans. all the indicators of the national environment from the generic ballot to present joe

biden's approval rating point to voters being unhappy with democrats and being likely to vote for republicans. >> that's one of those indicators the fact you're tossup category insight election is chock full of pray. >> all democrats. arizona race try to hold his seat, raphael warnock -- those are the close up tossup seats insight elections has rated this cycle part is there any seat and incumbent holds are given the favor to another party? amcu i missing one? >> that isno correct we currenty do not have any seats with an uncomfortable either party that we see is it more likely than not to flip. this time point time we don't have any seats on the map. how by one part of the sea is more likely than not to flit. like you said we've got democrats and aren't tossup category for those are highly vulnerable seats for democrats could lose any of them they could lose all of them, they could lose none of them with the

tossup category is for. but republicans, even the marginal seats they are defending we see those as beginning with an ever so slight republican tilt give it the national environment heading into november.nt >> will make it to care hisai wedding in nebraska line for democrats thanks for waiting. >> hi. thanks for taking my call. i was wondering if i could ask your guests to comment on another governors race in nebraska, what his thoughts are. >> yes. this is yet another gubernatorial race another race in general we are going to see a test of former president trump's enduring influence and the republican party without a trump endorsed candidate who is an agribusiness man he was involved in the trump campaign in 2016 we've got a guy name jim tolan who comes from university of nebraska board of regents is

very close to the outgoing governor got a state legislature named lindstrom was also running and that race we've seen his polling numbers rise as well. this race was rocked by recent accusations of unwanted groping by child charles the trump endorsed canada a republican state senator actually went on record with the nebraska publication to accuse up inappropriately touching her and seven other women spoke to the paper as well making similar accusations. he has denied them but that has opbecome the topic of conversatn and that race in the final stretch polling would indicate all three men are tied up at the moment. any of them could potentially emerge from this primary trump was just in nebraska rallying

remains to be seen if that will be enough to save him from not just the this particular scandal but long-standing stories about his failure to pay taxes over 600 times over the course of his business career he has had to come out and defend pretty forcefully. >> butcher were never going to find a race that stumped you. insight elections.com is the website. do always your time for. >> absolutely. >> tonight on cspan2, friends, family former colleagues forever the life of former supreme court justice john stevens britt fell by the head of the environmental protection agency testifying on the president's 2023 budget request. then president biden and other elected officials speak at a memorial service in minneapolis for former vice president walter mondale. later texas congressman speaks

at a democratic fundraiser in iowa. >> he spent as your unfiltered view of government funded by these television companies and more including media comp. >> the real change in an instant but media, was ready, internet traffic sort and wait never slow down parade schools and businesses went virtual i we powered a new reality because at media, we are built to keep your head to pray. >> media comp supports easement as a public service along these other television providers giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> aim or moral service was held at the supreme court for the late justice john paul stevens who passed away july 16, 2019 at the age of 99 for the event was attended by all nine supreme court justices, the attorney general, and the solicitor general ed law clerks of justice