i'm honored to be here tonight sharing the stage with commissioner bill bratton and ms.. o'donnell family. fellow rafael manguel. it is great to see so many of our friends in the audience, including mrs. president emeritus larry bone and our trustees ravenel, currie and charters and nikko. now and to celebrate the release of brilliant new book criminal injustice, this book represents the culmination years of ralph's hard work. not long ago, the conventional wisdom held that the biggest problem with our criminal justice system was that it was far too punitive and that what urban neighborhoods needed most

was for the police to stop being so proactive in their efforts to fight crime. ralph warned that this was a dire mistake, that the crime decline that transformed america's cities was a fragile achievement, and that cities around the country would regret their headlong rush towards. deep policing and decarceration. needless to say, he's been proven right. and ralph has dedicated professional life to doing everything in his power to restore public safety, especially for our most vulnerable citizens. it is therefore fitting that ralph's introducer tonight is commissioner bill bratton. over the course of his long and distinguished. commissioner bratton has saved countless lives. he oversaw the nypd's transformative implementation of broken windows policing in the 1990s, which greatly contributed to the city's massive crime decline that decade. and he led a similarly dramatic transformation at the lapd during the 2000s at the federal level. commissioner has served with distinction on.

the homeland security advisory council, which he now and today he is the executive chairman of the consulting firm teneo risk and the author of the profession, a memoir of community race and the arc of policing in america. i'm proud to say that commissioner bratton has had a long, fruitful relationship with the manhattan institute. his signature policing strategy grew from his intellectual partnership with the late george kelling, the renowned scholar who coauthored the 1982 article that first introduced the concept of broken windows policing to the public kelling and commissioner bratton worked together on a 1994 piece for city journal explaining the nypd strategy for fighting crime, which has proven enormously influential. he's also served as an exceed league generous mentor, collaborator and friend to ralph. and with that, i'll hand it over to commissioner bratton.

to first the commercial don't walk one to buy this book. it is extraordinary. and i'll speak it in a moment. but first, a thank you. thank you to the manhattan for its sponsorship of tonight's event. but thank you. in the institute for the work that you've done over the decades to try shine a light on how to do things the right way and not to do them the wrong way. because right at the moment we need a bright light on what's going on. it's being done the wrong way. and that's the strength of rafael's book. it is the right book at the right time because it takes apart so much of the misinformation, the lies, the misrepresents portion of so many of the ideas that are cheering our city, state and our country apart. well, phil knew he'd the first to tell you. i feel that he's not to the

right. he's not to the left. he wants sides to listen, to read, to see the strong arguments that he has developed from, his years of research and his exposure. some of the best minds in, the criminal justice system in america. a lot of them introduce him to relationship with the manhattan institute. his parents are here tonight, is very proud parents. and i can see where rafael comes from. his is the spitting image. maybe rafael's i keep calling ralph. well, but it's rafael, the i guess the english of rafael. rafael maybe the origins of his interest. this subject came from his dad, who was a detective in the nypd for 20 years during the turbulent eighties nineties, and then in the aftermath of 911. and so during a period of time of extraordinary change. so. so thank you for your service

the city and to to to you and your wife. thank you, rafael. i the opportunity to meet rafael several years ago, george kelling was in his last year of life. he had had a long bout with cancer. george was a friend. colleague mentor, coauthor. it's just an extraordinary individual who had influence on these issues. his seminal work with jim wilson broken windows. i was the practitioner of broken windows and i put their theories into practice with great success because they understood that you could not focus just on serious crime. you also had to focus on the disorder. the broken windows that people saw every day. the disorder that we are not attending to with any at the moment. rafael and his book basically looks at all of these issues and the importance of them.

but i first met him when i went to george in hanover, new hampshire, where he's living with his wife, catherine cole, and went up there four times during that last year and on the first visit, there was a young man working with george and they were collaborating on something that was of great interest to george in his last year on this earth. george was very disappointed that much of what has spent his life devoted to trying to educate the importance of community policing, the importance of broken windows and that it was being attacked and being attacked successfully, unfortunately. and so the idea that he was about to leave this life, his life's work was being torn apart and he the good fortune in that last year to meet rafael. and i'd like to think that a lot of the influence in this magnificent book was through that exposure to. george george's last work for the manhattan institute was a

3000 word effort that by rafael defending community policing and the community policing. it effectively was what could make safe. so from that exposure to rafael developed a friendship it the admiration of a mentorship not only of me of him but him of me because he's an extraordinary young man with an extraordinary research and most importantly the ability to take what he has learned, what he is analyzed it presented in a use friendly fashion. so many academics, so many writers, so many researchers as they effectively write for themselves and other researchers. rafael writes for the people on the left. on the right. in center. the idea of trying to bring them to common ground. the idea of this issue of public safety is too important to be in the trenches throwing hand

grenades at each other constantly, but trying to find a way to get us out those trenches on the left and the right and to get us into what is no man's land and have it become common ground. with this book, he pushes back on a lot of the misinformed action that has taken hold over these last ten years. and i'm hoping that if we can advocate forcefully for it myself and many others who will have the opportunity to read it. we can begin turn the tide this negative tide that has engulfed america over these last half dozen years. we're in a perilous place at the moment. but new yorkers, we're in a perilous in years past. we through it and we got through it with hard work. we got through it with inspiration we got through it with knowledge. rafael's hard work is providing us inspiration. it's providing us with knowledge. it's providing us with the ground work, the platform to stand on to begin to make a difference, to once again take back our and those who destroy

it, take back our state and take back our country. my prediction is that this will be as influential in the criminal world as broken windows back in the 1980s. why? because it's crime sense. it makes sense. so, rafael, thank you for your incredible contribution to, this area of research. but importantly to the real world. thank you. wow. you when you get an introduction like >> when you get an introduction like that, as commissioner brad when you talk about your first book and the green night at the club associated with the most elite itversities in the world

is impossible to resist the sense of accomplishment that i i am feeling right now. so i want to take a quick brief moment to acknowledge the people who helped me to get to where i am. fmy family friends and mentors. but also supporters of the manhattan institute they have given me a professional home our trustees who has not only generously supported this project and i just want you to know how deeply appreciative i am for that support. i could not have done it without you. if i'm being honest my sense of accomplishment makes me a bit uneasy because the intention with the reality is always animated the work on these issues that it's not

about me. tonight this book is first and foremost about the far too many victims of these injustices that inspire my book's title like the murder detailed in the book's introduction of a young on arm chicago mother allegedly shot with nine prior felony convictions including second-degree murder and like the little boy who was forced to run for his life as he dodged bullets meant for the young man he made the mistake of walking past at the time and mike young woman who was stabbed to death in her apartment earlier this year by the homeless career criminal with three open cases. and the incredibly strong woman robbed of her husband

after he and his partner were murdered by a repeat offender out on probation. i wrote this book largely because i was tired of reading stories of the heinous crimes had no business being out on the street these are not outliers a desire that only grew watching 2020 and fold in the wake of george floyd's murder politicians and activists saw w those policy proposals c that will lower the transaction costs and according to "the new york times" more than 30 states passed more than 140 police reform bills this was a trend slowly taking shape into my

mind this would do real damage to public safety in communities they wanted to help and hence the subtitle. i was entirely unsurprised when the homicides fight across the united states largest when you increase any generation and remain unsurprised between 2020 and 2211 dozens cities set records for homicide and a dozen more flirted with the 1990s peak. over the last several years violents crime with homicide in particular was much more of a problem here in america but not when evenly distributed, violence geographically and demographically our hyper concentrated here in new york

three.5 percent of the city's fighting crime in well over a decade and minimum of 95 percent of all shooting victims are black or hispanic as uncomfortable as it may make people you will see disparities black males cost to between six and 7 percent of the population that are murdered at ten times the rate of their white counterparts so in 2019 the national murder rate was five per 100,000 but in chicago neighborhoods 97 percent black l or latino it was 61.seven per 100,000 and it understates how dangerous some of the neighborhoods are west garfield park added 2019

murder rate 131 per 100,000. my book highlights for two reasons with a thorough understanding how violence is concentrated helps to punderstand who will suffer through the policy program and who it is should enhance public safety which brings us to the second reason and then with those disparities that we hear so muched about and disparities that are seized uponli as a means of pursuing racial equity. the most serious crimes affecting a particular demographic group and that is entirely reasonable to be

disproportionately deployed to these areas andse by extension to see disparities arise from law enforcement resources in other words to accept as legitimate victimization rates are highest also accepten that police will interact disproportionately with the people spending time in those neighborhoods to focus on the vacuum is theun important context to undermine the assertion law enforcement disparities are driven by racial animus. another example can be found of racial disparity of incarceration that show when you control for the type committed the sentencing shrinks essentially leading up to the same conclusion from the national academy of sciences "racial bias and

discrimination are not the primary causes of disparity are rates of imprisonment. overall this controls are used for the defense characteristic prior criminal record characteristic black defendants are sent and somewhat but not substantially than whites those data that form is the theme of the book because placing data in proper context often meets the rhetorical impact of the harshest critiques to common examples include the charges a mass incorporation starting with mass and corporate mass incarceration united states houses 5 percent of the worlds population for 25 percent that

is significantly higher than other developed democracies that much of that can be contributed united states is home to more concentrated criminal violence that would result in lengthy prison terms even those that are unfavorably compared with. in 2018 germany and england and wales experienced 3200 homicides and by contrast just for american cities but the combined population of just over 470,000 saw 336,000 homicides that year. just a few neighborhoods more experience int three whole countries despite having less than half a percent of the w combined population. wouldd also note germany's sentences a higher percentage

of life in prison than the us and in the uk the mandatory minimum is five years in prisonti but its regularly met with probation so a higher incarceration rate is not with a punitive approach to crying. it turns out it has become more common. shooting over 220 people the number is nowow down in the low twenties. the problem is youni wouldn't notice listening to the critiques they are amplified but you will see a statistically rare but highly salient of alleged police misconduct as well is what is

presented in the least favorable light possible. and then the murder george floyd is aat clear example that somewhere in the range of 1 percent and in over 1 million calls for service across three police departments resulting in more than 114,000 arrest and police officers use physical force in less than 1 percent of those arrested with that entire data set to capture one fatal police shooting and in 19 percent where they did use force the suspect sustained no more very mild injury.

as important as it is for the statistical realities that i mentioned tonight it's even moream important you understand what i am not arguing. i'm not arguing the criminal justice system is perfect. i am not arguing recent a subset of those constituted incarceration does not serve forus that police do not make mistakes or abuse their power or that when cops do that the mechanism meant to ensure accountability are not acknowledge but those are not perfect does not justify the sort of radical organizations to be proposed in the name of equity. calls for mass incarceration and the policing must be

forcefully resisted. of the deep insincere empathy such resistance precisely what it is of those after one —- misguided are wrong. only then true justice to the crime problem. thank you. [applause] so with that we have time for audience questions.

>> what three or four things would you do differently than what's doing right now? >> i'm not sure i would do much but one of the biggest problems when i look at the data justice outcomes is data from the city of chicago where the average homicide has 12 prior arrest for 20 percent have more than 20 prior arrests but that tells you the police department is doing a pretty good joban of focusing resources that pose the greatest threat to the community but also its failing to do its part to back them up. i do think with the nypd learned is continued today to deploy resources to the neighborhoods that need the most where the crime is more

concentrated. but we have failed to truly understand and appreciate as a society the efforts of the nypd can only do so much good and the prosecutors refused to prosecute and judges refused to prosecute then df fax that would be muted and that is where we are today. >> wide is the legislation with the last two years to create this mess? >> there are a few things at the state level. i'm sure you have all heard is not having any impact on crime don't you worry.

and then to aggregate these individuals have one prior arrest for first-time offenders are not going out and hurting anyone but if we look at thepr population that are most likely to be held in the system they have a very high recidivism rate and what we see in new york is a massive job of violent offenders so we have seen a 25 percent increase in share of offenders so the other piece of legislation is discovery reform that drastically increase the compliance burden the system

without any funding that to give our work for me know that we cannot handle? and then to spend increasing the amount of time which is raising that transaction cost forcing prosecutors to triage and not bring cases at all. those misguided efforts have arbeen backed up by raise the age requirements making it crimpossible with the most chronic teenage offenders which have had disastrous results with a huge recidivism rate jump in that population and now the less is more legislation which makes it back toficult to go prison for violating prison

terms or parole this is the moved to incarcerate on the scale and they are proven to be disastrous in other jurisdictions as well. >> talking a good game of where is this impetus come from and how do they come about ? >> part of that comes from of how bad things were the seventies through nineties as well as a faded memory of the mid- 2000's it reduces the

sense of urgency with respect to issues of public safety. and also makes people much less comfortable that was characterized that is overly punitive and to suggest we overcorrected in the punitive direction and the problem is that has been met with the attempt to throw the baby out with the bathwater than what been done and i think anybody worth their salt would say they never made mistakes but what risks are we willing to take they would never dare set foot in? there are people who are made to feel guilty and that

disastrous for low-income communities. >> and to have a disproportionate that these are not due to more punitive laws but then he would cite various punitive laws that other countries have done so far but theic fact still remains the us still has a significantly larger proportion than european countries. >> because we have more crime. most of thes united states is as any safe place but what's different is we have a number concentrated crime that occurs at levels that would be difficult for most to

imagine. talk of a homicide rate 131 per 100,000 but as a comparison to the national rate we have no that's really like so when you leave the house you genuinely don't know if you have to fight at some point before the day before you come home or if you have to dodge a bullet. the united states has a lot of that a lot of people understand in the context of the gun control debate. that's why we have a violent higher crime rate but then to look at the reality of the disparities of incarceration we would do well to remember that terrible distinction and work to correct it but the main reason why we incarcerate so many people is we have more

resources brazil has significantly more violent crime is because they prefer not to incarcerate they don't have the wealthy united states has at its disposable. >> fantastic job. congratulations many are struggling with early retirement or to recruit police officers president biden recently reversed course announcing funding for the police department that is sad enough to address what the police departments are facing

and you have other recommendations? >> i don't think that crisis a function of the resources being dedicated. we have seen over the last couple of years the profession to be demonized in the way that i don't think any other profession has seen. it makes people really question themselves. why on earth but i take a job that requires me to wear a bulletproof vest only if only metaphorically spit on by the public i risk my life to serve? these are questions i asked myself the same week my father talked me out of becoming a cop because of the reality. and of the news media and to

be engaged in something to look controversial and video so those who have high levels of education psychological stability and to become cops also haved other options but i really don't want to see particular new york city and if we make placing the sort of job that those people want to do? [applause] >> unfortunately we are moving in that direction as far as police officers.

we see a lot of cities lowering the requirements. but that's not the issue i want to bring up. sixty-five people shot in chicago over the weekend the majority were shot and what we would call a drive-by. they were not known to the people who shot them. what is the impact of drugs and gangs on the shootings? most are retaliatory involving drugs and gangs and possibly someone who ratted on someone else and this is an issue the politicians and the media refused to address and it ties into your discussion and one

of the innocent people are caught up. >> and the direct answer to your question is a huge part of thech shooting violence the dea and classified a report that looked at the percentage of shootings however gang-related shootings was a large plurality. but the drug point is interesting with the simple drug possession which persistently happen in most

haveve very lengthy criminal s histories and ignores the fact that the drug enforcement really isn't about drug use it is understood that tool for more serious violent crime like crack was treated so much more harshly than powder cocaine in the eighties we hear about the racist construction of the act in 196 that distinguish between crack drand powder cocaine but it was cosponsored by 16 ofac the 19 members of the congressional black caucus ator the time cosponsors passing 97 / three black americans period played a huge role to establish a

mandatoryla minimum called the black silent majority. so it's important for us to understand that when we talk about drug decriminalization we also talk about an important tool who try to impact violent crime anyway that they can the massive overlap for those who engage in violence and in 2017 the baltimore police department identified 100 homicide suspects 710 had a prior arrest of the idea that a drug offender could be understood to mean nonviolent offender is deeply wrong and misguided. so they actually do drive some of the most serious forms that

is a tool they need to retain in the near term. >> . >> hows. much of this is less of a policing issue to understand the tactics and philosophy and more of thiss is just the failure of the judicial process and how do we fix the

system to actual legislative reform and prosecute lending that communities fall into chaos. >> the general answer is as a political process, we can do is start voting in prosecutors who have beenn open about what they will do if they win the election. [applause] they have not hid the fact that he wanted to incarcerate on a massivey scale he went on the website months before and said what his mother said he would but to pretend the rest of theik justice system operates like well will machine it doesn't need maintenance and then 70 percent of eligible

voters came out in the primary this is a political problem are there good ideas? yes that is to stop all of the bad ideas that we are starting to see there is a really good reason for policies like three strikes you're out and truth in sentencing is to the right number? probably not maybe five those who have those prior convictions who are out on the street to kill and rape and meme and rob and terrorize these are real communities and they deserve better than what they areng getting.

>> that's all the time that we have thank you for coming is truly an honor

>> and to say now and forever inseparable and did not think that the union was free today that the third of the population was enslaved that the union was the vehicle