it's great to have you all here and. honor for me to be here for the first time with such an guest for a conversation on what's his name. well, welcome the eventual republican nominee in 2024 up here. and i just want say there they are karl decide like he usually does it's great to be here with karl, who we all know a veteran republican political going back to his first meeting with george w bush in 1973, his work in college republicans. but he's also an esteemed author. and his book and consequence, a terrific read about politics it's about public service in the white house. but i thought we'd begin. karl this conversation in looking at another book you wrote the triumph of william mckinley why election of 1896 still matters and. i was reading it again the other day and.

it's clear. it's very relevant as we think through this political moment. 1896, you may have read the book. if you haven't, karl, help us understand when we look at that election, that time, what it could help us understand about the chaos in division of washington. well, first of all, thanks. thanks for having me. and thanks for rereading the book. as he can tell you, as he could tell you, it's a hell of a it is. and it's available outside. yeah. yeah. look, it may sound sort of drive it. it's got and violence and backstab and betrayal it sounds like an alternative fact and everybody has really cool nicknames. did you love the quote? that's true. the republican nominee is the napoleon of protection and the democratic nominee, the boy orator of the platte. and there are republican bosses. they call themselves the combine and they're led by the easy.

senator thomas, call your plan of new york and the frontrunner for the democratic nomination, the leader of, the silver forces inside the democratic party, who for 20 years has led the fight for the free, unlimited coinage of silver at 16 to 1, a cause calls the cause of humanity itself is silver. -- from missouri. --, i thought i made something different when i read it in the new york times. but anyway, carl, we just saw some punches almost during the speaker vote. and i thought to myself when i was inside of the house of representatives, it can it never was like this before. but then i was reading again in your book, the election of 1890, when the gop wins house. yeah. remind us about what it like then. so 1888 the republicans two years off but that's okay sorry. look look first of all, it was a long day of travel. i looked let's be honest. let's be honest. and let me start just outside of the gilded age. almost everybody in this room remembers when our politics was more broken than. it is today, late 1960s, early

seventies campus is aflame. cities up in flames when martin king was assassinated, it looked like our country was coming apart. we had a bigot running for president twice in 1968 and 1972. and our politics was broken and somehow it got healed. you think it's bad today? go back to the gilded age. we have 20 years of divided. two years with a republican president. house, senate, two years with a democratic president, house, senate. but they hate each other and nothing gets done because they're still fighting the civil war. when the democrats take control of the in 1874, for the first time in 18 years, it's called the victory the brigadiers. because so many former confederate officers are elected and read congressional record, you'll be shocked. i'm reading the dry debate in 1884 over a tariff measure and the democrats who are in the majority expect to win and they lose unexpectedly because of defections. and one democrat gets up and

begins excoriate his colleague. who led the defections? who's the former democratic speaker of the house and he it's deeply personal and vicious. and finally the former speaker, samuel randall of pennsylvania, said enough. he stands up and says violent members violating the decorum of the house and the member turns to him and says, i would not blank you if you a dog. four letter starts with an f answer the k you fill in the rest that's in the congressional record. remember years ago the woman iowa who won election by seven votes? mariana meeks and the democrats said let's invest gate that and then they said you know we did that in 1984 with the bloody eighth republican was elected congress in indiana by 36 votes. speaker wright says we're going to investigate it. they throw out the republican replace him with a democrat and a poison the well in the house for years afterwards. so they decided not to do it with. mariana meeks during the 20 the last 25 years of the 19th century, guess how many times

the majority party in the house of representative, democrat or republican would phony up an election challenge against a member who had won by a small number of votes and kick out the minority member and replace him with a member of the majority party to build their their their numbers. you want to guess how many times in 25 years? how about five? wow. in fact, in 84, the future president of the united william mckinley, who's one reelection by 50 votes legitimately in. his swing district in ohio is out by the democratic majority in 1884, before the election. and the only thing that is unusual about it is that seven leading democrats vote to retain him as a mark of respect. but this happened routinely. the fever finally breaks in 1902 when john show fourth, a democratic congressman from colorado who's been by a small number of votes. they have an election commission that looks into the election he watches it stands up on the floor of the house on the day that's going to make his report and says i paid careful

attention to the deliberations of the elections committee and i've concluded that twice in 29 precincts in my district illegitimate and illegal activity by of my party has resulted in my inappropriate and illegal election to this body. i ask to join with me in voting to expel from the house and and me with my republican opponent. he wins election as governor of colorado. two years later on the slogan of honest job. but that's what it took. and, you know, look, remember when we had the battle shutting down the government unless, you repeal obamacare and we had the, you know, sort of the few days where that was all about years ago this year, ten years ago this year, in 1890, actually, yeah. 1890. so the republicans have a narrow majority. and in the house and the democrats back then they were sort of civilize you. scott in in march there was no air conditioning so everybody

was sent home until october, november and then you came back in the house, began the congress began to meet in the fall when it got cool in washington, democrats announced that they will not answer a single roll call, thereby denying the house a quorum, have a vote. republicans win. the democrats stands up and says there is no quorum present. they call the quorum no democrat the roll call and as a result, the vote doesn't count. so for october, november, december of 1889, not a single bill is passed in the house of representatives. no. no. post office? no bill, no. nothing. in early of 1890, thomas brackett reed, the speaker of the house, decides he's had. so he directs the sergeant at arms that there will be a vote and the vote is on expelling a west virginia democrat who won reelection a handful of votes with his republic an opponent. and when he calls that vote, the sergeants in the army are supposed to take up station at each one of the doors around the house chamber and allow no one

to leave. and a separate crew is to take boards and barricade doors on the outside. so have them. they have the motion. they have the the republicans win a. democrat stands up from kentucky and says i do not believe in quorum as present they call the clerk calls the roll. no democrat answers the roll call. they're all, you know, spitting, you know, spitting on the floor and, you know, smoking cigarets and feeling really good about themselves and reid says to the clerk, the chair directs the clerk to show mr. jones present. mr. smith president mr. winter president calls out the name of every democrat on the house floor. one you know, you can imagine. what happens? they all run for the exits. one gets out. constantine august of russell county, texas, beats -- out of the sergeant at arms and uses his cowboy boots to kick out the in the door of the house of representative and make good his escape. the guy who started it all stands and screams. it read under god in the constitution you have no right to count me present without my permission to which reed, who's

about six foot three £300, looks sort of like a bowling pin with a walrus mustache painted, he says very calmly. does he honorable gentleman from kentucky deny he's president upon the floor of the house? this kicks off a nearly two month long debate and is ultimately settled by. the u.s. supreme court as to whether or not the speaker has the power to do this. and in the for almost five months not a single bill is in the house of representatives. the debate that begins the very next day, one of the first speakers is william howdy martin of texas, six foot, six inches tall, thin as a mean as a snake, fought the entire civil war with hoods, brigade. he stands up, points a bony finger at reed and says if any member will order me to remove this dictator from his position of power upon podium, i will do so by force forthwith, reed says. the honorable gentleman from texas is out order and moves on. martin is so -- off. the next day he comes in, sits

right in the front row, in front of the podium on the floor of the u.s. house of representatives, pulls out his six inch long boy knife and spends the entire day it on his boots, all in an attempt menace. the speaker of the house. now, our politics is bad bad, but correct me if i'm wrong. did nancy do that with her stilettos when she it over to mccarthy. i can't remember. tell me if i mean listening to that car of mccarthy thinks matt gates is tough i mean that was much like hey in 15 votes to get speaker how about 35 votes to get to be president. do you remember the election of 1800 thomas jefferson you know he neal it ends in a tie in the electoral college because his running mate aaron is supposed to tell a couple of buddies from new york not to vote for him so that back then you voted for the president. the vice president you know, the vice president was whoever the second most number of votes, but

supposed to tell a couple of his buddies not to vote for me. so jefferson comes out on top, doesn't happen. wonder why? so on february 11th of 1801, the election of the 1800 is tossed into the house of representative. and at noon, in the midst of a blinding snowstorm in washington, d.c., the house of representatives meets one vote per state, need nine votes in order to win the vote is held at noon in the midst of a blinding snowstorm. and it looks like jefferson is going to lose because maryland has a has four democrats and four federalists. but one of the democrats is ill and thought to be dying. he insists upon being carried on a stretcher miles through the blinding snowstorm in order to be installed in a in a room next to the floor so that he can deadlock maryland and they vote at noon and it is inconclusive they vote every hour on the hour for 24 hours. every one of them the same. and the next day, the second day, they say, wait a minute, you know what? let's slow this thing up.

let's see. let's vote one time a day and see if we can't come to a reason on the 30th fifth ballot, if finally breaks the next week, and it breaks by the intervention of an unlikely figure. alexander hamilton he has written a letter, george baird, the federalist congressman delaware, and said, i hate them. i them both. but at least jefferson has character and burr has none. given the choice between two evils, take the lesser every time. so on the 35th ballot, barrett says i'm cashing in delaware. we're no longer supporting. burr. i'm going to convince a fellow federalist from vermont to throw in so that vermont will now to jefferson jefferson can be elected. and i tell my fellow federalist, maryland and south carolina, it's done, boys. let's go home. jefferson is going to be president. and on the 35th ballot on february 17th of 1801, jefferson was elected president and sworn into office, 15 days later. so we're screwed up. but they were screwed up, too, and they got it.

let's move a little bit. that's a great point. back to the 1896 moment for just a. when you look at 1896, it's not just about mckinley, it's about williams, jennings, bryan and america seem to be having a populist moment at the turn of the century, many would argue now and in the populism is again on the rise. like representative ocasio-cortez senator sanders and the democratic party progressives and on the right, the rise of trump and his allies with their nationalism. there's a populist moment saw it jennings bryan saw it mckinley it how did the how does that populist moment from that period overlap with today's if at all. yeah well it does because populism you point out can be on the right or the left. populism at its core is a belief that the system is rigged that

the system is corrupt, that the little man or little woman is being screwed over from the right. it's because big government and from the left, it's because, you know, big corporations and the money, power and yet the language. interesting go online and read the cross a gold speech which is a total accident as i'm as i'm as i brilliantly explain in my book but but but then there in the course of bryan says there are two forms of economic theory. the republican theory is that of prosperity will trickle down from above. and the democratic theory is that it will rise up from below and it was populist. it was a populism of the left. the system is against the little guy. and what was interesting was mckinley's answer, we're all in this together. we need to have an economy in a country in which every american is respected, in which every american has an opportunity to succeed.

and he runs a relentlessly positive campaign and does something to unify the country that for the time, completely unexpected. william mckinley entered the civil war as a private, an ohio private and april of 1861 and ends the war a major having received three battlefield promotions for unspeakable bravery, he is recommended for the congressional medal of honor, but refuses to have his application. pressed because said i was only doing my duty, he survived two suicide missions, one suicide mission at the battle occurrence down in the shenandoah valley. he literally rides as ordered by his commander, a brigade commander, a colonel, to ride across an open battlefield in of the union forces to get a critical message to. a group of union troops are about ready to be cut off, and he makes it to his his tent made said, i've never you know, i never we thought was going to die because he was riding literally across his

battlefield. and when he gets the message to the 13th west virginia navy retreat retreat in good order he rides back behind the lines walks into his commander's new tent, in his brigade commander rutherford b hayes turns around and says, i never expected see you in this life again. so he's a civil veteran, a union a union hero, and he does. the first day he won, he is the first republican candidate for president to appear. he or he invites a group of confederate from the campaign where they were trying kill him to visit him in canton, ohio, is hard for us to understand what that meant. but that was an effort at national, he said, you know, he said to these grain confederate veterans, if we're ever forced to fight again and god that we we shall we shall as brothers united the common cause. so you know, this here was a guy who, you know, was recognized history today but was a remarkable human. and what he did was he said

we're all in this together and found a way to bring the country together after a divisive quarter of a century. it was 50 years ago this year, as i noted, that you first met george w bush. tell us the story of that first encounter at union station in washington, d.c.. well, it wasn't really union station. it was the republican national committee. he was coming in from union station. they actually there's one one there's one pre story. so i've just been elected colleagues, republican national chairman and me and my youngest active director is actually a year or two older than i was. we're summoned, but were in the subbasement underneath the parking of the republican national committee. we were down there with the janitorial staff and the princeton shop and all the other toys, and we were summoned to the fourth floor to be given the lecture by. the chairman of the republican national committee, a tall, athletic texas oilman named george h.w. bush. and so me and my executive director, harvey lee atwater of

self carolina, are summoned and we're given the lecture, boys. we're giving you budget. don't waste it. we're going to give you assignments. it. i don't want funny business. i don't want internet. see in warfare. i want adult behavior. and if there is not, there will be consequences. if made myself clear. yes, sir. do you have any questions? and at that, lee atwater, unbeknownst to me, had a question. and when lee would talk, he would stutter and his clothes would sort of magically begin. but i got i got a question. yes, lee, what it is it true you keep a boston whaler with two evinrude 380 sevens on the potomac river? yeah as a matter of fact, i do. i bought this weekend. there's a really cute girl up from south carolina. i would really appreciate. i could. i've come to the craft before and i'll return it full of gas and going, what the. it had just enough hoods by the bush said okay so this is our contact with them this is it this is we've had 5 minutes. we've been sternly and my my one

paid staffer has now gotten us into trouble by borrowing a boat so i'm like, this is not starting out very well. so for reasons that are completely inexplicable. five weeks later, i got a phone call from the chairman's chief of staff, a fellow named tom last. and this is at a point where the republican national committee, a 63 employees and phone call is chairman bush would to know if you would like to become a special assistant. so in late october 73, i'll be at the age of 22, i go to work for george h.w. bush and the wednesday before thanksgiving. tom says, says the license tuesday said tomorrow the chairman is going to be down at the white house in the afternoon. i'm going to be up on capitol hill and his son w is coming down from harvard business school and this pretty cell phone. so when he gets union station he's going to call and you go to the lobby and meet him and give him the keys, the family car, because he's going to drive out

to spring valley in northwest where the family's home was and be there that afternoon. and we'll get we'll get the chairman home that so i said, great. so the phone call comes from the formidable rosa maria, bush's longtime tells me to go to the lobby so i go to the lobby and this may be hard to fathom, but was the complete nerd. so i'm like complete liar. complete like nerd. so there i am like, goofy nerd and walks this guy with a national guard flight jacket, cowboy boots, levi's little round thing in the back pocket. you know, she can come exuding more charisma than anybody should. and he's like, here to get my keys how you doing, little guy? and i gave him the keys to the family car, which is a some of you will remember these it was a gremlin and gremlin a purple

with levi strauss. the bushes had a long time sort of a, you know, aide named don rhodes. and don was the cheapest human being ever. and he could care less what the car looked as long as it was cheap. and so he had bought the bush family a purple gremlin. so the, you know the harvard business school, who's been working in the oil patch, earned enough money to pay for his own college and also to buy a little red sportscar to drive around harvard yard to impress the coeds is given the keys to the purple gremlin. levi strauss and let's say it wasn't an auspicious beginning to our relationship. you've spent the decade since building the republican party in texas nationally. where is the republican party today? well, it's a mess. it's ironic. party parties can be simultaneously strong and weak. and the republican party does

have strengths. and take the last election. normally, what happens of the distribution of of what congressional districts look like because of the voting rights act? there are a lot congressional districts that are democrat that have 75 or 70% or 80% democrat than there are republican districts that have the same notion. so typically in a election for the house, the republicans are a point or two behind in the popular vote. and we were four points ahead this time around. and yet we have an anemic majority in the in the house. and it's because we have a dozen seats where we where we put up terrible. and you we put up the the guy western michigan against peter endorsed by trump because peter meyer voted for trump's impeachment. the guy had no connection to the district had lived in born on the other side of the state had moved there to run on the opposite side of the state in place. it's pretty and he said nutty. he'd written a paper when he was at stanford law saying that all

of america's modern emerged from the amendment that was passed in. came into force in 1920, allowing women to have the vote. and when he was asked about it, rather than saying, i was young and stupid, at one point he tried to defend the thesis, but we did that and we did that time and time again across the country, we had the guy who in 2020 put together the gigantic display in his front yard in a rural part of northwestern ohio that praised president trump. i don't know if you've ever seen. oh, sure. yeah. the pictures over sort of this guy is like weird because he's got like the all the huge display with flags in trump, you know, styrofoam head, the head of trump and all kinds of weird stuff. i think he had music videos, music videos, and it was just weird, but anyway, trump saw it and heard about it, so he endorses him for congress and and the guy says, well, i'm a combat veteran to boot. and it turned out he was not a combat veteran of afghanistan or iraq. he was a loader on the flight line and cutter for a couple of months loading airplanes.

and it turned out he said, well, you know, i was reduced in rank because i got in a fight in a, you know, in a bar and it was in the dormitory. well, it turned out he got reduced in rank because shortly after 911, he was driving a large piece of equipment on, an air base, completely and totally drunk. and it was only because it was after 911 and we needed everybody on deck that he wasn't thrown out of the air force. but that's the kind of person that we ended up. and you add him up and there i count at least 12 of them that we lost. and some of them by the a point or two that we should have won because we had bad candidates. and we are at a point where we're not you know, we have we have a the governor of ohio once you remember when ohio was a battleground state, remembers it. and the governor of ohio gets reelected by 27 points in every one of the rest of the republican ticket wins by 22 to 24 points except for us senate candidate who wins by seven and why? because he make a case to the people of his state that he

ought to be that he ought to be their representative in the united states senate. so he gets elected but he gets carried in on the coattails of everybody but below him. florida used to be battleground state. remember that desantis wins by 19.4 points. the largest victory of any republican in the history the state and carries the rest of the ticket and two thirds of the state legislature in with him. so we're simultaneously strong but weak because and you know there's a lot of admirable things about donald trump but you know he's he is not the strong effective leader at the top of the ticket. i would never ask you to speak the former president, but how do you see president george w bush's in american life since he left the white house? he made a decision that he was going to be a former president, not somebody on the stage he very much believes it was his job to do everything. he could leave nearly nothing back, put it all out on the field and then let the next let the next guys come along.

and he feels rather strongly about it. i mean, he did he did not get into public life order to be in the public space, wanted to achieve things and do things. and he's still very active but it's things that are you he's very active in aids efforts in africa, which i don't know if you know this, but i mean, do you know where america is most popular? i was talking with mike milk and the other day about this, he said it in the survey work all around the world. you know, where america is most popular around, the world, sub-saharan africa. and you know why? because we've saved the lives of millions of people with pepfar and the aids relief effort that was begun under bush. and he's still active. that he's very active. there's not a week goes that he does not work with and meet with veterans and, particularly wounded warriors, because he a keen responsibility those men and women went into harm's way on his order and he feels a personal responsibility for what happened to him and so he is with them all the time doing

things to help make their lives better. he's also involved in efforts to on immigration and education, but his object and energy and national security. but his object is not to be that guy. it's his job he thinks to help facilitate other people to step forward and help lead the country, particularly younger, a younger generation. speaking of the military when you look at congress now, one of the big debates in the coming months will be how to handle ukraine, especially with divided government, how the republicans in the house will interact with president biden on this issue, the bush years, the bush three years, there was an intervention, a strain in the republican party about having some kind of influence in the world, whether it's on the ground in a war or just in terms of advocating for democracy is that strain, that dynamic still, a vital part of the republican today, especially with ukraine? yeah, well, it's diminished

somewhat, but only only somewhat because there are i mean, you may have seen on sunday, for example, my neighbor in austin, michael mccaul, who's new chairman of the house foreign relations committee, he was asked about this comment by, republican from arizona saying we shouldn't give to ukraine because american military will be driving those tanks. and mccaul said we're giving the tanks to ukraine. so ukrainian can drive tanks and so there is an element in our party if you want to step back, though, think about this. one of the amazing bypass agreements last year with a democrat, then a democrat, senate was that the proposal of a democrat president with regard to national security was completely insufficient and as a result led by democrat chairman adam smith of the house armed services and his minority counterpart, mike rogers, the house plussed up the defense budget, $75 billion because they said we faced china, faced north korea, we faced russia.

we've got to rebuild our military. we've got to modernize our military. and that was done in spite the president saying, no, no, i want to spend here. they said in here and that happened a huge bipartisan vote on two measures. the defense budget and on what's called the national defense authorization act. and i think that's still there. look, i went to ukraine the first time in kiev in 1993. it was a dusty, grimy, ugly town. and there were they were just freed from the soviet domination. i've been back four times since 3 to 3 years ago was my last visit just before the killed in kiev is a bright, shining city of exciting people who love the fact that they're living in freedom and look the west they want to emulate. they want the american dream, but they it in ukraine and they know they've got problems they've got leftover problems. corruption and oligarchs. but they want to live in freedom. and if we allow the russians to

subjugate ukraine. putin made it clear in. july 2020 statement that he views that ukraine is an integral part of russia, as are the baltic regions and parts of poland and croatia. if you want to see the soviet union come back, turn a blind eye to the to the brutality and the horror he is inflicting upon a peaceful people. and so, yeah, i think there will be a consensus to support the. support. and ukraine is not to say. we're not critical. i'm personally critical they should have moved faster and quicker, but they've at least moved meaning the administration and i think bipartisan consensus that's going to defend this policy and we have no choice. if you think it's in our self-interest as a country to have a europe that bullied by the russians, you're kidding yourself. you're kidding yourself. it will hurt our trade, our prospects. it will change the world. or if you think ukraine goes, what do you think? north korea is going to think about south korea? what do you that china is going

to think about taiwan? what do you think iran is going to think about the middle east, all the bad actors in the world are going to be emboldened. not a single has died in ukraine and we're in our uniform. they're americans who've died. but they went there, volunteer to fight on behalf of freedom for ukraine. but but the ukrainians are dying and they're dying for the concept that we hold dear of freedom. and self-determination as a people. and by god, we better stand them. i know many in here are regular readers of your column in the wall street journal. terrific read. but for those who may not have read your most recent columns, give us carl, if you wouldn't mind. a cold karl rove political assessment of two major figures president biden and former president trump.

oh. once you lose your will may be both. actually, i'll give it to you. i'll give them to you together. so anybody here from, south dakota, remember bill janklow, the complete mad man? bill janklow was longtime attorney general of the state. then he was the governor and he was a wild man. and 41 years ago, janklow and an attorney. do you know know the abdullah's well, what was the old man's name? gee, gene abdullah and bill janklow, south dakota. as a substantial lebanese population, and scott abdullah, the leading attorney in the state, our jeanne abdullah. so jeanne abdullah and janklow started the south dakota law enforcement gala and appreciation gala, and they hire a speaker to come and give a patriotic speech. and and it's like 2000 people in what's like looks like a barn.

and it's america. it really is fantastic. they got the crazy catholic priest who has been giving invocation for decades shows up, of course, with the invocation this year on a white board. and every every political person in the state is there, thune is there and introduces me and the supreme court justice leads you the chief justice leads you in the pledge and the woman who sang at the state fair gives does a spectacular rendition of the national anthem. and it's america and mean it's like, where's marty evans? marty from beckwith marty is for 11 years been donating non hundred and £50 of prime rib which you're enjoying to everybody the program tonight everybody show marty your appreciation class anyway so i give the speech a little patriotic thing and they said we want you to shorten it up so you give q&a. i got the q&a and it's huge. i mean this is a big place and there's a sky in the back and they give him a mike. is that what you think about biden running again. and i said, well, i'm going, --

every democrat in the room. i don't think you got to run. he's 82. he'd be 82 if he ran, if he served four years, he'd be 86. he'd be close to 90, then 80. and he's struggling. i said, i worked in that place for seven years. there's a reason why. everybody who occupies that job comes out looking older. the demands are enormous and we need, a young and a younger, more energetic than we got in my opinion. and i said, now i'm going to irritate every republican in the room. it shouldn't be. the 78 year old donald trump i said he lost he was chaotic and he's not prepared to do it again. do we is this really what we want for our country? i said look, i said we're 1959, 1960. we got an admirable president dwight eisenhower, but he was born in the 19th century and the american people said in 1960, we want one of these two young combat veterans of the war in the pacific. 40 some odd year old john f

kennedy, 47 year old richard nixon. and the election of kennedy ushers in a 32 year period during we were blessed to be governed by presidents who are part of the greatest generation, starting with kennedy and ending with george h.w. bush, who who is the youngest navy fighter pilot in world war two at the age of 18, enlist when he's barely 17. then we elect bill clinton. and for 32 years we have been governed by presidents who have been drawn from from the baby boomer generation or in the case of biden the generation before. baby boomers called the silence seriously, the silent generation. and i said, why is it 32 years enough? i said, this country faces big challenges. the world is dangerous place and we need young dynamic leadership, republican or democrat and there are plenty of them out there. and i thought you know, i'm here in deep red, south dakota and i'm now saying no to both of these people. i knew they'd be some applause for the first notion the place went wild.

i think the country is ready for a change. we know in our heart of hearts that our country deserves better. did go to the panel with james carville and somebody him the same question. you'll get the same answer. so looking ahead to 2024 before we get to the presidential, you spent so much of your time these days looking at the house, the senate races, the gubernatorial races, leave the presidential to the side. what's your outlook on 2024 on those levels. yeah set the governors aside because there are very few governor's races in the general year in states that are either red or blue that's not going to be much. but the senate republicans had tough election this year because we had several senators or seats up in states that donald trump and joe biden won and we had no

democrats up in seats that donald trump won this next time around. and we had twice as many up as they had. table gets term next time, twice many democrats up as republicans. the republicans are up in places like, you know, utah, texas the dakotas don't have to worry about those wyoming. democrats have have senators in montana, west virginia, ohio. i don't i don't want to interrupt, karl, but you say don't worry. sometimes in red states, candidate quality can become an issue. yeah, yeah. but you better my sense is that lesson was learned enough on the senate side in 2022 that the republicans going to care about that next time around. and and besides in most instances it's going to be incumbents who are running. i mean, we may have you may be able to make the argument that we could do better than theodore cruz in texas, but he's going to be running and they won't come up with somebody. sounds like a lot of love there. yeah, well, as i just said, he

was going to win, so he ought to be happy with that in wyoming. same i mean, we got john barrasso is up and they're not going to come up with somebody. but i do think a lot of democrats retire between now. i think a couple do. yeah i mean, you know, particularly mean dianne feinstein is going to retire because 89 but but but but but even if they retire you know john tester and sherrod brown and joe manchin have got problems. i mean, you know, if you're sherrod brown, if you get a good candidate against you, you're in trouble in a state that the republican have just carried in the governor's race by 27 points after put up and where you're senate candidate who's who is you know ryan was a pretty he's a very effective candidate far better than our candidate and yet he still came short by seven points. and i don't see the democrats making a contest for ohio on a presidential level next time around. ohio no longer a swing state. that state has swung in part of the coalition that donald trump

created has swung into the republican column. the foreseeable future. so the democrats are going to have a trouble holding on to the senate because in addition to those, you've got two states that they won by 3/10 of a percent and one state that they won by two and a half percent. and as a result, you're going to have, you know, in a presidential action, and particularly if there's a tendency to swing against the party in power, they're going to be in trouble. house don't know. i think it's all going to depend upon do the republicans avoid the same mistakes they made this last time? i mean, we lost a seat, for example, in washington state by one point with a complete lunatic on our ticket. that seat is likely to swing back into the republican column. in fact, if you go in and look at these seats, the hale seat that i mentioned or the two new hampshire seats there is, strong evidence that people were that republicans were saying, i'm not voting for that person. i'm not voting for the gop nominee because i am to vote for my buddy republican state rep, republican governor, you know, in pencil in new in new

hampshire chris sununu runs well ahead of the two republican candidates congress in the state's here and so do most of the that most of the republican state legislative it's a lot of it's going to depend on again candidates right you look at ohio looks like dolan the republican who many and let's say the bush wing the business wing of the republican party admire he's going to run again and sherrod brown. but someone like mitch daniels who you know so well just decided, no, thanks in indiana. so you do wonder this point early. do republicans to use phrase, just stay themselves like daniels did? maybe it's still messy. i don't want to have this primary. well, that's not exactly what he said. i know, because i talked to him at length and his statement. it's worth reading his statement. it it's an indictment of washington. well, but it's also it's also mitch. i said i'm 70 years old. i'd have to spend two years

running and six years serving. i'd be 78, nearly 79 when i left. is this how i want to spend eight years of whatever time i got left? and here's a guy doesn't need to hold an office in order to have an impact. think about what he did and establish a model for the entire country with his leadership from purdue university, he's told every university president, the country you can find ways to the cost for your students and improve the education that's available to them. if only set your mind to it. and what he has done to make purdue even better. think about it. this is not a universal that has kept tuition flat. it has reduced tuition across board for every single student. think many more people are going to be able to go to college or to be able to attend college without having a big pile of debt. because this guy said, you know, let's figure out, let's take sound business principles and apply them to our higher education system and work. realize that our customer is the student and our job is to give the highest quality product at the lowest possible price.

so he's really and i wish you wish he would run because i think he'd be the conscience of the but also look look in your own life, there are things that you said now that'd be nice, but i'm not going to do it because i want to spend what time i have left something else and i think he's right. news just broke in the last few days that governor desantis of florida will be heading to your state in march and early march for some high profile dinners. it's a sign he's potentially moving toward a 2024 presidential bid. former nikki haley has signaled she's likely to jump in the race. she's going to be in texas on february 24th for your event, big political event. i asked karl if i come. no reporters. i may try to stake it out. can come say, karl, i was with you in rancho. yeah, let me in. hello. look, you can come. it's just up them to decide to talk to you. i just read you. can't be in the room. but if i were you, i'd come if i

were you. it's true. i'll take any excuse to go to. yeah, but what do you make of this? we need the money come on to spend generously. you have elon musk living up your bar bill. however, before you leave tarana last time had so ambassador haley inching closer to santos certainly seems to be thinking about at the very least governor young going virginia in the final few here where are we in terms of watching 2024 republican presidential race and how do you see the movement in a way perhaps we don't. yeah, well, i just finished turning in my column for tomorrow so give you a preview. thank you. i'm awaiting the editor. i hope she's. gentle with me today. look, first of all, it's early and i make three points in there. one, people need to get in now. trump didn't enter the contest.

until june 15th. bush didn't enter contest in 1999 until late june. and it's all this. they can go walk around the country they can go give speeches, they can go talk. they can go make friends. and it matters to do that before you formally announce because if you talk to somebody, before you announce, you're saying you're important enough to me that i came to see you before i jumped in and they lose that benefit. they when they jump in. so point one is don't be brushed. trump got in and did in november. oh, that was a mistake. he floundered. it's hard to sustain things that long. better to be under the radar and chart your own path. meet on your your turf and two of them have got day jobs. you know actually three of them. brian kemp. brian kemp of georgia, youngkin of virginia and, the santos of florida are all and chris sununu of new hampshire, all sitting. they got legislative sessions to attend. second point is, is it ignore the attacks unless allows you to

do a little political jujitsu and trump coming out and attacking is wrong. sanctimonious. you know it was it was exciting when it was 2015 and 16 because he was punching. now he's punching down. and when you punch down makes you look weak and. you know why he's doing his beyond me? it's just i mean, i think he feels i think he's scared, which why he's doing it. and it's a different world politically between now and 2015. yeah. eight years he got it changed can't adjust and the third thing is is the republicans had better figure out however how to get in a place where the field trims down quickly in february of 2020, trump got 33% of the vote and 84% of the delegates because the other 67% of the vote was split among so many candidates, they failed to get the threshold to reach the threshold to get delegates. that was in february. in early march, he gets 45% of

the of the delegates with again, about 33% of 34% of the vote because again started consolidate. but still, you have too many people chasing too few delegates in the latter half of march, he gets like 40 something percent, 41%, i think it is. i got right number in the column, but he gets like 56% of the delegates. i'm sorry, 67% of the delegates. he doesn't start getting more than 50% of the vote until may. but but because there are too many people out there in the field still getting, you know, 3%, 10%, 5%, so forth, it's it up. so they got to give the republicans a better figure out how to say to people, thank you for making a shot, but you're not getting there. and my checkbook is closed. my network is unavailable, and i'm turning my attention elsewhere. anyway, it's a good column. i think we'll see. wall street journal columnist, author and veteran political strategist karl rove, thank you for being here