she has also served as a member of c-span's advisor team, the networks periodic surveys of ranking us presidents class and jean metzger on both notes plus

book notes plus is available on the free mobile or aware of whereveryou get your call >> good morning , we're back with the bipartisan policy center senior vice president william hoagland discussing the debt limit, the debate over how to raise it and more on how the us on asked of $31 trillion debt. the morning. >> guest: good to be with you. >> host: thank you for returning to washington journal. tell us about the bipartisan policy center at the work you guys are doing to educate people about debt and deficits. >> guest: thank you. the bipartisan policy center was established 15 years ago by 4 former majority leaders in the senate the late senator bob dole and howard baker on the rollicking side, tom daschle on the democratic side and as the name would imply, it's a little hard to

believe in washington there's something called the bipartisan policy center we tried to approach major issues and find common ground because we believe some of the most sustainable policies are those done in a bipartisan way of issues related to a number of areas. energy, immigration and on fiscal policy there are issues that fiscal policy we have developed a little reputation for that organization this is called the next day when the federal government will exhaust all its resources available to pay bills. >> and i know it's not a certain date. it shifts what do you think

x-date is and what are the at factors that contribute? >> factors impact this uncertainty associated with the level of revenues, and the level of expenditures. the federal government pays monthly something like 80 million in checks some of those checks will our current estimate has been sometime between june and september. that was our estimate, months ago. later this week or early next week to update our estimate as well as i understand secretary of the treasury yelling will also do for estimates to update e there is some indication that the revenues that came in, those revenues that came in were less than what we had

expected so maybe it has pushed the date. we will try to refine this but as i say it's a difficult estimate to make because we have to take into consideration all these uncertainties and of course if there are issues we can anticipate whether it's on the fema or maybe a disaster, something of thatnature . those are the kinds of things that will change thatestimate rather dramatically . >> we are talking to bill hoagland from the bipartisan policy center about the national debt i want to give our viewers and listeners the number to call in any comments on the issue or any questions you may have for bill. democrats cost at 2027 48,000 . if you're a republican we want you to call us at 202 748-8000 one. independent style 202

748-8000 two. will get your calls in just a moment bill in your in addition to what you do with the center you also have a long career on capitol hill. you're a stranger to this debate on the debt ceiling how do you see it playing out in the current congress over the coming weeks and months? >> that's a good question. this is a job in many ways i seen this movie before. this loan is a little bit more scary from my perspective as opposed to the first time i got with that limits issue was when i was having the senate budget committee essentially that the situation where we were the same goals as a situation where we had a this time in the house mister individuals democratic-controlled house

and working with an issue of trying, on behalf of of the resolution in the second resolution has been sent by one vote and george w bush, george was the first president was vice president but this is something that republicans put together a budget and what it was if you can believe it was to reduce a deficit time which was $200 billion in order to visit a long story short budget waste to the house and is included in the senate a very controversial budget resolution because it had a one-year freeze on social security e and it is president reagan's defense budget what happened was in the house and the house mister eyeballs at that time senator dole were basically under my president reagan said you not support

so it came back and it caused a lot of controversy for republicans and stretch their next online to look at trying to reduce the deficit. that led to the next wish was there was a movement by senator robin in the senate, bill graham that's it, are going to now in the visit was october 1985 were going to increase the statutory in dollars, where it too. it wasn't long ago. >> it was five years ago the national debt was. >> five what center senator robin said is your vote to raise debt limit which requires 60 votes at least in the atsenate unless we get

policy that resulted in this case called brown running which was a precursor on something that followed . 82, 2000 where reset caps on spending and it spending exceeded that there would be what we call the first time ever heard the word, called sequencers. we would cut spending will graham read and all things we can argue was designed to get us a balanced budget again. i don't think it was as successful as the pot did set up a process and mechanisms that lead to agreements and then also with this mister clinton in 1997 program

negotiations. while is required negotiation and i know and i respect the presidents. i essentially worked with him when he was a senator here and i respect the process but i think you have to recognize that we are going to have to negotiate. i'm a little worried about this game of chicken right up to but it will have major impact of not only domestic but globally is the federal this work for the first time in its history as defaults on paying his bills. that would be a real disaster. both for republicans and finally. >> we will be at more before with you but before we get to the phone lines i want to, can you explain what is the difference between the debt

and deficit? >> guest: .wesometimes assume people understand this . a deficit is the annual difference between your di spending and your revenue as an example today we have a deficit for the fiscal year of about dollars, $980million . if you go back to the beginning of and had up all the deficits offset by when we had surplus which had been that much, that will be the cumulative. so debt is the accumulation of deficits from the beginning of the two today. >> host: i'm showing on my computer the us ¦or clock which is cutting up but showing $1.7 trillion debt,

national debt. that shows the phone lines. first we have nearly calling from connellsville maryland on thedemocratic line. what's your question ? >> thank you for taking my call. my question is i've heard from the republican side that buy-in has done little to reduce the deficit and i've heard from the democratic side that trump, former ministers from who i'm not in favor of increased the deficit is the during his number of years as an as reduce that deficit

substantially despised the war in ukraine, despite covid, despite his number of things going on in the world . which the united states has had totake part in . i believe we need to work ukraine, we need to do anything that we can at this point democracy is unresolved . it was under assault on january 6, there's no disputing that. i have from this year's related to trauma in particularregaining the white house . i don't see that happening. but should that occur, even if he should run i think we're going to have major problems regarding election in this was proven to reports

. i don't know how many mtimes more than 60 i believe that there was no was no tampering. was donating and just won his lawsuit . >> were left guiltless on to the points she may not the difference. >> first let me say this is a maybe this is no surprise somebody you know i work for republicans in the senate for many years this is a bipartisan problem . we used as a rule of amounts is scarcity are the first law of politics is to ignore the law of economics increase,

this increased debt and deficit that we have is the result will republican and democraticpolicies over the years . when you said that the buying reduce the heat reduce the deficit westward this way the deficit in about three. >> this is the annual deficit in place i was 3.1 that was covid, all the other things going on@ yes, the deficit, the deficit has gone from three down to about $1 trillion. that's coming off covid problem is next to deficit your annual deficit t is not the debt this all continues to grow in fact yet has grown under this administration but it's not just as you go quite

a ways this is been going on for a long time and some of the programs we have on the books today be honest with you such as social security and medicare created many years ago the roosevelt administration, johnson administration, even under expansion of the food stamp program under nixon administration, n,those programs are all the books they are creating a draw on our spending so this is a combination of number of policies will republican democrats over the years it's a not one estrogen is for a level of debt we have today is a culmination of many years of policies we've established a or currently pay for our expenditures on an annual basis. >> all on screen you mentioned washington post did

nine key moments of the national debt and is things like the bush tax wars in iraq a afghanistan, medicare part d was prescriptioncoverage in 2006 2008 esrecession and response, that was under president obama the obama gop to extend which taxpayers which was wrapped up in the debt ceiling discussion in 2013. tax cuts of 2017 and bipartisan spending bills under trunk. of course the pandemic response was $5.3 trillion and buying economic agenda is another 2.7 trillion from the washington post. that's over the last 20 years or so. he points that didn't address

or extend the national debt. let's go back to the phone lines now, we have gary on the line in sterling virginia line . >> three asks or sees and before i get to that. could you ask you on must to come on and tell us what he wants twitter to be? does he wants it to be a bastion of common sense or something it's? also ask brian lamb what i said to the evangelists when they asked him today and an antiabortion plank of the party glass ask is that you look up in late february 1978 or 79 those press releases in the washington post on climate change?

now lithe debt limit. i asked mcconnell what's to be learned in the fourth kingdom because the first time we went under obama i lost 12, 14 and 18 percent. the last time was when movies five star rating was lost. and then ask jim jordan and kevin mccarthy whether or not you're going to be the keystone pipeline my head because said 500,000 jobs were lost and jim jordan said for work atthe thousand . so they must be wanting to

get things and bad. thank you very much for letting me share . >> host: all right bill. >> guest: i can't comment on the later comments about mister jordan and others i will say as it relates to where we are today i think it's clear that we haven't really had the senate way in and mister mcconnell as mister schumer have been through this exercise a number of times. and yes, just because the house passes legislation last week, it is clear that legislation is not going anywhere in the senate as i say, i believe that compromise is the way you move forward and is going to be very up to your other, yes . this is dangerous for

investors. this is dangerous for the overall economy and dangerous or outstanding in the world as the firm your currency and there are challenges from china and other places that want to take over the dollar as the reserve currencies and this is something you and your savings and investments it need not find a solution and find a solution. >> host: next up is tracy and marilyn on why. >> caller: thank you. i wanted to mention i can remember when reagan came on the tv and she said that we all need to tighten our belts because we have a debt and deficit. i don't know why presidents don't come on tv and tell us the truth.

i can also remember when president bush gave back money, $300 to all of us. i was thinking 0,why doesn't he just save that for a rainy day? i don't understand the ?mentality of not being fiscally responsible. >> guest: thank you. my response to that is your right. it behooves our elected officials to be honest with the be very transparent so let me be at least, i'm not running for office, i talked to many constituents but the discussion on sending with if it was to be an honest discussion would not be focused on 13 percent of

federal spending that basically is what was in the hospital last week it which is what we call on the defense is secondary but i know what is really driving spending in this country unfortunately are the guardrails of politics is the air. social security, medicare, medicaid, healthcare those are fast paying interest on debt, fastest-growing components for the fact that you know president biden and i am disappointed in his position on this was before a state of the union address and basically makes all things in the house into saying that social security and medicare were off the table. let's be honest, if we do not make changes in those programs in the future that may, that will result in make those changes social security trust fund will exhaust in a year to free the hospital

interest on will exhaust in 31 if my dates are correct and it happens there will be options from what people thought they were going to get in socialsecurity . there will itoptions in medicare payments. if you're being honest on the spending side and you have to talk to them straight up in's we have been on the books in mind when he's back even before buying an obama as i say, these major income programs available for a long time now seeing the consequences of the expenditures listen, i want to believe in counseling sending. i think we should go and there are areas which we can be and you are. unless you're willing to tell the public what is the real drivers of spending that

let's take the other side of the equation. let's not pass this on to future generations. let's talk about other office is mediation starting for the benefits weenjoy today . ask taxes. >> will positions you layout for our officials. we get a text message from robbers in the georgia . he writes what is this all that owed to the us countries utilize? >> that's a good question. but it's change over time and about 40 percent at one time on the guest held by the public, that's what we're talking about here was on my foreign investors. and if i had a friend that

just as a former ceo doctor, we best looking horse inthe factory . one being that we have been placed we are secure in terms of paying our interest on our debt . so that's is an important question at china and japan and you, investors like our t-bills and ams but is the issue i raised is that could change ready dramatically if we do not raise the debt and pay interest on the borrowing going forward. as i say i think is today rw about 30 to 40 percent of the town is owned by foreign investors. >> let's go to mark indianapolis maryland on a timeline, nawhat's your? comments?

>> just a quick follow-up comments related to private sources and uses, what can you related to expanding exports of traditional carbon-based fuels, oil, natural gas or is he a substantial reduction ofthat . also alternative energy technologies. again with raising funds but also on the spending side really a clearer view your really extending social security ages so those entering the workforce you're basically targeting studies you, is probably being an eligible age of social security 30 years of state frozen workforce. because money is and he was probably 2 to 3 years beyond

mortality age so mortality was 60 and 94. eligibility was 63, 62. so it would be interesting to see what mister hoagland's comments on this are. >> guest: first of all i, on the first part of your question about expansion of trade . certainly i believe in free trade and i believe there's always that opportunity to increase our exports and it should be and that would have a beneficial effect on the. i think it would also therefore increase opportunities and income and raise revenues but in terms of its impact on the immediate problem of increasing the debt limit backs to your other question is your ego again on social security

, the bipartisan policy center has that this we had a major commission focused on with former members of commerce as well as trustees of the social security on this issue and we think uewe would take the position that mark at when that age was established at 65 and then we (exercising the 80s, where we were faced with that on being defeated and there was a ever made by five again is her goal and senator my hand and others. we did modify the age of eligibility from 65 to 67 saying early retirement still at 62. my quite frankly work the work that the thbipartisan budget review that we should be looking at adjusting 67 or as longevity.

and for the past years longevity has declined due to think the main factor being the only issue but the long story short here again there are ways you can send social security, made more available and at the same time without the benefits for those want to work longer and receive social security and not just be on the age adjustments. you have to modified form. protecting those lower income that receive social security. social security is a major poverty reduction program for the elderly and i think we should continue to retain are ways you can modify this program at an aspect of it was a recommendation by a person wasn't on the spending side is also we may have to

seriously consider some form of update in the payroll tax to make the program solvents or a longtime time. >> let's next online is sergio in pompano beach florida on theindependent line . >> .. how did this $31 trillion debt started in the first place? and also how can we can be self independent like we used to be '70s and what have you from china and whatnot?

-we correct that problem? because i believe president biden is doing apr hell of a job keeping our country in prosperity and so forth. he got rid of the covid in everything. he's doing a hell of a job.yt but the republicans are having a problem with that, holding our economy hostage but that needs to stop.ee how can we work together like they used to back in the day? >> guest: your question is one that hauntsqu me daily. i worked here in the capital for many years, and it was a different environment than we see today. we have obviously a very polarized environment so i don't have any simple s solutions to that. there are some thoughts i have but i will hold them to the side. let me say in terms of how did we get here, as i said, this is

a culmination of spending in excess of the receipts that we take in, revenues, that created the debt the required us to go out and borrow the money. specifically in terms of the history of this, up until 1917, whenever we went out to say have a project, congress passed a bill to say build may be the panama canal, i don't know if that's a proper example, but to build that. at the same time inn that bill t authorized the authority to borrow, to pay for it. the point being each time congress create spending it created, it created the authority to borrow to pay for that project. come 1917, coming up on world war i ended particular into

world war ii that just was unsustainable in terms of the amount of expenditures needed to fight thatde war. we had to establish this debt limit so we didn't have to do it on every bill that came through. that established the debt limit, as i said, it's the law and gets adjusted and we are now at that point where we have to adjust it again. and by the way just looking at my numbers here again, even when we adjust this and i think the role the legislation the house passed last week t was to raiset 1.5 trillion, or by march 31 next year, whichever comes first. let's just be clear, that level of debt that's on the books today, what we have already made commitments to, as a safe entitlement programs, spending programs, if you believe the

projections, we are still looking at debt continued to grow. and fact i would point out we did mention this d earlier, buti look at debt as a share of the economy. and it used to be that that debt was closer to 30, 40%, and now now it's well up into the hundreds, 100% of gdp of gdp is our debt today. if we go out, he could take the house passed legislation last week, even if it were to come to pass we would still be facing in ten years debt to gdp close to 100% of gdp. we really do have to make some fundamental changes in our spending and our revenues policies going forward. otherwise we are simply passing on this debt to our children, grandchildren, my grandchildren and their level of living standard will be lessened because of this burden that we

are placing on them. we should take the burden on ourselves today and not pass it on to future generations. >> host: as a look of euros debt clock.org assist total debt to gdp ratio is currently 130 4%. i want to to ask you quickly -- >> guest: cannot clarify quickly? that is 134% is total debt which you're talking about today. when i talk about debt held by the public, not the inner governmental debt, that's the 100%. >> host: gotcha, gotcha. just quickly do you think the debt limit should go away altogether, get rid of it? >> guest: i think there's only one of the country in the world that has aer similar kind of de. i have mixed feelings about this. i a understand the house positin and understand where senator

graham, senator wyden were. it is am forcing mechanism to have us to focus on this issue. so i have mixed feeling about it. i don't think it's accomplished what people thought, i don't think graham rudman hollings really achieve what wee wanted o achieve in bringing some sensibility but at least it does get us to this discussion mountain today about the level of debt that's out there and what it means. so i wish it wasn't as difficult as it is. but it does force congress relations i guess i'm filibustering your question by not answering it. >> host: let's take another caller. thomas in riverdale georgia. thomas on theoc democratic line, what your question or comment? >> caller: i really enjoy this

program. one of my questions is how come no president has ever tried to pay off the debt? and then also why can't we just pay japan or china, pay off a few of our debtors just to keep from paying them interest all the time? and another idea or something, you know, when the gas prices on the why can't we just increase attacks a little bit for maybe a short period of time to try to pay off the debt come just to increase revenue or something? and is or an advantage of having debt or staying in debt? >> guest: thanks, thomas. first of all the was a president who tried to pay off the debt completely, his name was andrew jackson. a it was somewhat successful i guess, and then we entered into

the civil war. but pay off our investors overseas, i'm not quite sure, thomas, how that would work. because if we paid them off and said we don't want you to purchase our treasuries, then we would have to force an increase if you like in interest payments to encourage domestic investors to purchase our debt. so i think that's a little bit difficult to say we just pay them off and tell them they can't purchase treasury. this is a global economy now. we are interacted with all over the world.. it is something that would be very difficult to achieve. taxing, there were times and i don't disagree with you, thomas, that there should be in times of may be war, in times of specific disasters, maybe we should just

say weis have a tax to pay for that particular activity without, on a one-time basis. long-term you need to look at the overall taxing of the country and where it stands and apply it in a more uniform rather than a one-off basis. >> host: all right. let's go to colorado. jack on the independent line, good morning. >> caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i have a question. toll me that ought to raise the cap on social security to begin with. but how is, the federal government is the biggest employer in the united states. we never hear anything about how their retirement is running out ofof money, so how is that compared to social security? may be the ought to just switch

all federal employees over the social security. that would cure everything. and that's the only question i have. thank you. >> guest: thank you,th jack. all transparent, i am a federal retiree, and so i am aware of the federal retirement program. it was converted a few years ago into a system similar to what most people have in terms of retirement outn there. in their 401(k), so i'm not sure that this would be possible to simply convert everybody over to that particular type of program. i think i like your idea of social security, taking the cap off. i think it is, i'm going to say $120,000, i can't remember the exact but you're right, there's a cap on that and that should be

modified also and moved up. in fact, i think it should be,, again, reflecting the changes in overall income out there that that cap should be adjusted upwards. thank youho a jack for your question. >> host: thank you so much. again, bill hoagland, bipartisan policy center, senior vice president. thank you so much for joining us. >> guest: thank you. >> c-span/ipsos a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view of what's happening in washington live and on-demand. keep up with today's biggest events with live streams of floor proceedings and hearings from the the u.s. congress,e house cave-ins, the courts, campaigns and more from world of politics all at your fingertips. you can also stay current with the latest episode of "washington journal" and find scheduling information for c-span's tv networks and c-span radio plus a variety of compelling podcast. c-span now is available at the apple store in google play. download it for free today.

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