we are going to have the book signing innc the back don't skip the announcement for reference to that cluster. >> yes. hello before you exit this lovely, lovely barbecue have a bit of protocol for all of our lovely guest joining us today and members. our protocol would get this right and going to read for my phone. we are asking everyone exits out of the east door for the book siding in the atrium it will set the will be in montgomery hall we are not doing any sales while service and but this was going on. we are asking once your books are signed exit to the west door. no one will be able to come through the atrium west door. alright thank thank you for cooperating in this lovely effort. we look forward to getting those books assigned. thank you. >> now on a book tv more television for serious readers.

click sent honored to be here tonight sharing the stage with commissioner bill bratton and rafael mangual. it is great to see so many of our friends in the audience including mi president emeritus larry enter trustees and to celebrate the release of ralph's brilliant new book criminal injustice. this book represents a combination of years of rob's hard work. not long ago the conventional wisdom held the biggest problem with our criminale justice sysm wass that it was far too punitie and urban neighborhood stated mostti was for the police to stp being so proactive in their efforts to fight crime. ralph warned this was a dire mistake. the transform great cities was a fragile achievement in cities around the country would regret their headlong rush toward the policing and incarceration. needless to say he has been

proven right. ralph is dedicated his professional life to doing everything in his power to restore public m safety, especially for our most vulnerable citizens. it is therefore fitting ralph introducer tonight commissioner bill. over the course as long distinguished career commissioner as saved countless lives. he oversaw nypd's transformative implementationic of broken winds placing in the 1990s which greatly contribute to the city's massive crime decline in that decade. he let a similarly dramatic transformation at the lapd during the 2000's. at the federal level commissioner has served with distinction on the homeland security advisory council which she now cochairs. and today is executive chairman of the consulting firm and the author of the profession a memoir of community, race, the arch of policing in america. i'm proud to say commissioner set a long and fruitful relationship with the manhattan institute.

his signature policing strategy grew from his intellectual partnership with the late george kelly they're not mi scholar who co-authored the 1982 article that first introduced the concept of broken windows policing to the public. telling an commissioner work together on a piece for city journal explaining nypd strategy forr fighting crime which has proven enormously influential. he is also served as exceedingly generous and tour, collaborator, and friend to ralph. with that i will hand it over too commissioner. [applause] >> mercer commercial? don't walk, run to buy this book. it is extraordinary. oh speak about in a moment. the person thank you, think it's manhattan institute for sponsorship of tonight's event. thank you and the institute for the work you have done over the

decades to try to shine a light on how to do things the right way and not to do than the wrong way. because right at the moment we need a brightne light on what is going on because it's been done the wrong way. it is the right book at the right time. it takes apart so much of the misinformation, the lies, the misrepresentation of so many of the ideas in our city, state and country apart. what times the first to tell you that he is not to the right. he is not to the left. he wants both sides to listen, to read, to seeee the strong arguments developed from his years of research. his exposures of the best minds in the criminal justice system in america. a lot of them introducing relationships with the manhattan institute.

parents are here tonight very proud parents. i can see where rafael comes from. [applause] is the spitting image. maybe raffaella keep calling ralph but' it's rafael i guess the english version. rafael may be the origins of interest in the subject came from his dad who was a detective nypd for 20 years. during the turbulent '80s, 90s and then in the aftermath of 911. appeared at a time extraordinary change i thank you for your service to this city. [applause] you and your wife, thank you. i had the opportunity to meet rafael several years ago. george kelly was in his last year of life had a long bout withd. cancer.

he was a friend, colleague, mentor, co-author. he was just an extraordinary individual who had great influence on these issues. his work with jim wilson, broken windows. ies was the practitioner broken windows. put their theories into practice with great success. because they understood you could not focus just on serious crime pretty also to focus on the disorder, the broken windows that people saw every day. any e moment. rafael and his book basically looks at all of these issues and the importance of them. but i first met him when i went to george in hanover, new hampshire, rine cole, and went up there four times during that last year and on the first visit, there was a young man working with george and they >> working with george and they were collaborating on something that was a great interest to george. in his last year on this earth, george was very disappointed

that so much of what he's spent life devoted to trying to educate the importance of community policing, the importance of broken windows. that it was being attacked and being attacked successfully unfortunately. and so the idea that he was about to leave his life his life's work was being torn apart. and he had the good fortune in that last year to meet rafael and i would like to think that a lot of influence in this magnificent book was to that exposure to george his manhattan institute was a 3000 word effort that coauthored by rafael effectively defending community policing and that community policing effectively was what couldd make america safe. so from that exposure to rafael developed a friendship in admiration. mentorship not normally of me or

him but he of me and he's an extraordinary young man with an extraordinary researchh capability and most importantly the ability to take what he's learned what he's analyzed and present it in a user friendly fashion so many academics so many writers, so much researchers they effectively write for themselves and other researchers. rafael write for the people. on the left on the right an in the center. the idea you're trying to bring them to common ground. the ideaa of this issue of publc safety is too important to be in the trenches throwing hand gray naisd at each other constantly and try to find a wie to get us out of trenches on left and right to get us into no man's land and have it become common ground. pushes back on misinformation that's taken hold over last ten years and i'm hoping that if we can advocate forcefully for myself and many others who will

have the opportunity to read it we will begin to turn negative tide that's engulfed america over last half dozen years. we were in a parollous place at the moment. but new yorkers we're in a perilous place in years past. and we got through it and we got through it with hard work and we got through g it with inspiratin and got through it with knowledge rafael hard work is providingg us inspiration it's providing us with knowledge. it's providing us with the ground work the platforms to stand on to begin to make a difference to once again take back our city from those who will destroy it take back our state and take back our country. my prediction is that this won't be as influential in the criminal justice work as broken windows ftion back in the 1980s. why? because it's common sense. it makes sense. so rafael, thank you for your incredible contribution to this area of research but more

importantly to the real world. thank you. [applause] wow. >> you know when you get an introduction like that, from someone as important as commissioner bratten before you deliver a talk about first book and a a great room at a club associated with elite universities in the world. it becomes basically impossible to resist the sense of accomplishment that i'mse feelig right now. and so before i get into the talk i wantnt to take a quick moment, a brief moment to acknowledge some of the people that have helped me to get to where i am for my family, my mom, my dad wife, friends, mentors, but also the supporters of the manhattan institute the organization that has given me a professional home. l our trustees and in particular

mr. nickell nell. who has not only just generously supported this project but has been an incredible sport of my work and work of the institutes for -- years now and i just want you all to know how deeply appreciative i am for that support. i couldn't have done it without you.' >> so -- now, if i'm being honest. my sense of accomplishment i think makes me a bit uneasy and the reason for that is that its intention with the reality of always animate my work on issues the issues i'm here to discuss and that reality is that this isn't about me. tonight, this book, the debate that it contradicts to are first and foremost about the far too many m victims of the sort of injusticesor that inspired my book's title. injustices like the 2019 murder detailed in the book introduction of a young unarmed chicago mother allegedly shot by a parole werks nine convictions

including one for second-degree murder. in justices like little boy forced to run for his life in that same cityn earlier this summer backpack in tow, as he dodged bullets meant for the group of young men he made the mistake of walking past at the time. andin injustices like young womn police say was stabbed to death in her low side apartment earlier by a homeless career criminal with not one not two but with three open cases. and finally like the incredibly strong woman who wasas robbed of her husband detective jason a man many of us watched her eulogize after wilbert by a repeat offenders and i wrote because i was tired of reading about heinous crimes of those who had no business being out on the street. stories that the data may clear are not outliers. and i wanted to do something about it. a desire that only grew as i watched 2020 unfold. and the wake of george floyd's

murders and all of the unregs and political grand standing that followed it, politicians and activist sought a wave proposal aim at statistically closuring commission and raising transaction cost of law enforcement. according to "the new york times" more than 30 states collectively passed more than 140 police reform bills in the year following george floyd's death. this is a unprecedent acceleration of a term that was slowly taking shape since at least 2010. and to my mind the acceleration of this policy agenda was going to do real damage to public safety particularly in the communities reformers say they wanted to help hence subtitle with push for decars ration and depolicing gets wrong and who it hurts most so entirely unsurprised when 2020 saw homicide spike 30% across the united states. the largest one year increase in generations. and i remained unsurprised by the fact between 2020 and 2021

more than a dozen cities set all time records for homicides and more than a dozen more cities flirted withoz their 1990s peak. over last several years, serious violent crimes shootings, homicides and in particular became a much larger problem here in b america. but not one who effects are evenly districted throughout our society. criminal violence has long been geographically and demographically hyper concentrated. here in new york about 3 and a half percent of streets segments see about 50% of the city's violence crime. and every year for well over a decade a minimum of 95% of all shooting victims in this city are either black or historic the vast majority of them male. uncomfortable asor it may make people in certain circles you'll see shooting suspects -- nationally black males constitute between 6 and 7.of the population but make up -- but murdered nearly ten times

rate of their white counterparts and crimes like homicide are tightly clustered into relative handful of neighborhoods in and around american cities. for example, in 2019 the national murder rate was 5 per 100,000. ten most dangerous chicago neighborhoods on the other hand which are 95.7% black or latino 2019 homicide rate was a whopping 61.7 per 10,000 as high as that number is it understateds how dangerous some of those neighborhoods actually are west garfield park for example had a 2019 murder rate of 131 per 100,000. now, my book highlights data like these for two reasons first age thorough understanding of how violence is and has long been concentrated helps us understand who it is that will suffer the most should a particular policy program diminish public safety and biological extension who it is that will gain the motion should a particular policy program enhance public safety.

which takes us to the second reason i highlight this data. the reality of crime concentration can help contextualize some of the disparitiesin in enforcement statistics that we hear about despair disparities made to make decars ration and depolicing as a means of pursuing racial equity. if, in fact, the most serious crimes are occurring in very small slices of cities affecting demographic more than others, then it is entirely reasonable for enforcement resources to be disproportionately to disparities arrive from that uneven distribution of law enforcement resources. in other words, if we accept as legitimate, the decision to police neighborhoods were victimization rates are highst we must also accept as legitimate that police are going to interact disproportionately with people spending time in those neighborhoods toor focus n the desperate rate of interaction and vacuum to ignore

really important context when accounted for undermines the assertion that law enforcement disparities are driven exclusively by racial. another example of this very thing can be found in the studies of racial disparities and incarceration which show that when you control the type and severity of the crime committed as well as for the age and criminal history of the offenders in question, the racial disparities and sentencing shrink substantially. leading us to same conclusion drawn by academy of sciences in the 20in incarceration which i will quote very verbatim, quote, racial bias and description are not causing of disparity or sentence and rates of imprisonment overall when statistical controls are used to take of statistics and prior criminal records and personal characterizes black defendants are on average sentenced somewhat but not substantially moresu severely than white.

contextualizing data that inform our criminal justice debate is a major theme of this book because placing the data in their proper context often mutes rhetorical impact of some of the harshest critiques of the american justice two prominent examples include charges that america has a mass incarceration and police violence problem. let's start with mass incarceration. we often hear that the united states house just 5% of the world population by 25% of its prisoners or u.s. has a incarceration higher than other develop democracies but much of that difference canch be attributed to simple sad fact that the united states is home to u many more pockets of highly concentrated criminal violence. violence of the sort that would result in lengthy prison terms, even in the countries that were so often unfavorly compared with in 2019 german and wales experience approximately 3200 homicides with a combine

population of 142 million people. o by contrast, just a few neighborhoods in just four american cities, chicago, detroit, st. louis and baltimore would combine population of just over 470,000 saw 336 homicides that year. in other words, just a few american neighborhoods saw more than 10% of the homicides experienced in three whole countries despite housing less than half of a percent of those countries combined population. i would also note here that germanyan sentences a higher percentage of convicted murderers to life in prison than does the u.s. and in the u.k., the mandatory minimum for illegal gun possession is five years in prison. such offenses are regularly met with probation in cities like new york. so no, our comparatively higher incarceration is not primarily a function of a more punitive approach to crime. what about police violence? well, it turns out that it's

thankfully gotten way less common over last few decades now common at all in 1971 nypd shots over 220 people that number is now down in the low 20s. the problem is that you wouldn't mow this from listening to the critique of law enforcement amplified in the legislate city meeting what you'll see a lot of if you're a casual consumer of the coverage of police is a hyperfocus on statistically rare but highly sail yengt anecdotes of allege police misconduct and data on police use of force presented in least favorable light possible. now,w, sometimes the injustice f a particular police action is plain to even untrained eye. the murder of george floyd is i think a clear example of that. but the reality is that that police use force somewhere in range of 1% of all arrest. they fire their guns in about 0.03%. of allt arrests --

and one study over one million calls for service over three police departments calls that resulted in more than 114,000 criminal arrests police officers use physical force in less than 1% of those arrests and that entire data set it captures just one fatal police shooting. and in 98% of the cases in which police did use force in that data set the suspect sustained either no or very mild injury. now, as important as it is to me that you all understand the statistical realities that i present this the book that i've mentioned here tonight it's even more important to me that you understand what i am not arguing. i am not arguing that the criminal justice system is perfect. i am not arguing that there isn't a subset of america prison and jail populations constituted by people incarceration doesn't

have end or that police don't misuse power and not arguing when cops do mess up that the mechanisms meant to ensure accountability are batting a thousand. ,however, the fact that the institutions traditionally relied upon to play mortgage roles in precision of public safety aren't perfect does not justify the sorts of radical reorganizations or reimaginings being proposed today in the name of equity. calls fromfo nasty cars ration d depolicing must be forcefully resisted. not out of for criminal offenders but a deep and sincere empathy for the comupghts that those offenders harm. such resistance begins with understanding precisely what it is that the advocates of this misguided program get wrong. and who they'll hurt most if they get their way. only then can we bring true justice to the communities suffering under weight of

america violent crime problem. thank you. with that i think we have some time for audience questions. so just raise your hand is there a mic going around i think there may be. if not yes -- there is joust raise your hand wait for the mic and -- we'll go from there. okay gentlemen in the blue shirt mic is coming to you. [inaudible conversations] you were running nypd and then based on statistics you, you know, enumerated like what three or four things would you do differently than what's being done right now to remedy this? >> i'm not sure i would do very much differently one of the biggest problems when i look at the data on criminal justice outcomes are -- data for example like out of city of chicago where the average homicide shooting suspect has 12 prior arrests

with 20% of the individuals have more than 20 prior arrests. you see the same thing a lot here in new york city with that tells you is that the police department is actually doing a pretty good job of focusing its resources on the individuals that post a greatest damages to their communities. whatting it also tells you is that the criminal justice system around policing is failing to do itsdo part to back them new thoe efforts and so -- i do think that what the nypd learned from the 1990s is being continued today they're continuing to deploy resources to the neighborhoods that need the most to the places where crime is most concentrated hot spots, so to speak. but what we i think have failed toai truly understand and appreciate a as a society particularly in this city that efforts of the nypd can only do so much good the rest of the criminal justice system will allow them to do and if prosecutors refuse to prosecute and judges refuse to incarcerate and parole boards refuse tholed anybody inside the effect of an nypd arrest will be increasingly

muted icr think that's where we are today. >> question here up front -- hang on for the mic here. >> what is the legislation perhaps last two years -- have created? >> absolutely so there's a few things that's happened on criminal justice reform front at the state level so we've had the dale reform i'm sure you've all heard about and i'm sure you've heard, been' told assured in "te new york times" it is not having any impactt' on crime don't you worry. they're wrong. it's plainly obvious they're wrong what they like to do is they like kind of aggregate criminal offends population into one big pile and say hey well these individuals who have no maybe one prior arrest or first time offenders yeah they're not hurgt anyone but when you look at the population of thoughts likely to be held inel a system that's properly functioning with respect to pre-trial detention

those individuals have a very, very high rate and one of the things that we've seen here in a massive jump in the share of offenders particularly violent offenders who have open cases so both where with respect to violent felony arrest in new york city we've seen a 25% increase in share of offenders constituted by people who have open cases i think that's a major hold in the bail reform defense. other piece of legislation which is passed along side from discovery reform which drastically increased the compliance burden associated with bringing your criminal prosecution in new york time. this wasse done without any funding to allow prosecutors to absorb that new burden i think that was done by design this is a starve the beast kind of approach to criminal justice we don't like this thing so let's give that thing way more work that we know it can't handle and no money -- with which to do it. which is forced prosecutors to spendro increasing amount of tie doing grungt work and paperwork which is raised a transaction cost of a criminal prosecution

to decide not to bring charges at all or to delay them entirely. those really misguided legislative efforts have been backedsgi up by raise proceeded by raised age requirements made it impossible to charge even -- the most chronic teenage offenders in adult criminal court. which has had disastrous results and seen that jump within that population and now, of course, we have the less is more legislation which makes it more difficult to sengdz people back to prison for violating parole or probation terms. these are i think -- just very characterric to move on massive scale and prove to be disastrous for city of new york they have proven to be in other jurisdictions as well. i was going to ask in light of eric adams at least he talks good game and sort of wanting to

curb crime and where does this -- politically where is this sort of defend criminals and put them back on the street where does this come from and what -- how do you see t it and come abt and sort of how do you think it can be solved like -- >> i think part of it comes from -- a fading memory of how bad things were in the 1970s, 80s,s and 90s as well as well a faded memory to get to the point where we got to in mid-2,000, it reduces the sense that we have to have a sense of urgency with respect to issues surrounding public safety and so, i think it is also made people much less comfortable withe operating a system that's long been characterized as overpunitive and there's evidence to suggest that we overcented in the 1990s in the punitive direction. the problem is that that has beenis met with attempt to throw the baby out with the bath water rather than reform at the margin

which should have been done again i don't think anyone worth their salt wouldld argue that te criminal justice system is perfect that it is never made mistakes. the question is what risks are we willing to take with lives that people who live in neighborhoods that most people in this room understandably wouldly never dare step foot in what risks risks are we willingo take as a result of wanting to make ourselves feel better i think there are a lot of people who are l made to feel guilty by virtue of the misrepresentation of what what data and trying to guilt by those of low communities of color. >> you said in your speech that u.s. has a dispronorgs gnat percent of its population incarcerated but that it's not due to more punitive laws then you went on to say various

punitive l laws that european countries have done and so far butac the fact still remains tht u.s. still has a significantly larger portion of its population incarcerated than european countries so why is that? >> simply because we have a lot more crime. again, you know, most of the united states is a safe as any safe place in the world. what's different here is that we have a number of pockets of concentrated crime that -- that crime -- occurs at levels i think it would be very, very difficult for most people imagine. when you talk about, you know, a homicide rate of 131 per 100,000 exist in west garfield park we understand as a comparison to national rate is but we have no understand what that's really like in terms of living in a community and what it means is when you leave the house you genuinely don't know if you're going to have to fight at some point during the day before you come home you don't know if you're going to have to dodge a bullet.

the united states has a lot of that. this is something that a lot of people understand -- in the context of the gun control debate we often hear it, you know, highlighted that well we have soil many guns here in e u.s. that's why we have such what high violent gun rate and we completely forget that reality when we talk about disparities and incarceration and we would do well to remember that -- that terrible distinction that the united states has. work to correct it but the main reason why we incarcerate so many people compared to lots of other countries is our crime also the fact c that we have a t more resources with which to do this than a lot of orr countries right brazil has significantly more violent crime but a smaller lower incarceration rate i don't think that's because brazil prefers not to incarcerate potential murders and rapers and they don't have the wealth that u.s. has to dedicate to criminal justice apparatus. >> my friend here on the left --

>> so fantastic job again on this book and congratulations. many cities are struggling with either early retirement of their police forces or struggling to recruit police officers. president biden i think recently reversed course and now endorse increase funding for police departments, be on republican side also do the same. my question is, is increase in funding enough to address the retention ando hiring problems that police departments are facings or do you have any othr recommendations for this problem? yonch it is enough in part because i don't think that the recruitment retention crisis is simply a function of the resources being dedicated to recruitment and retention. we have seen particularly over last couple of years profession of policing and it is a profession be demonized in a way that i don't think any of the profession has ever really seen and it makes people really question themselves. why on earth would i take a job

that requires me to wear a bullet proof vest and have a gun on my hip to do -- only to be, you know, if only metaphorically spit on by the enable i'm risking my life to serve. these are questions i ask myself in 2010 when i took the nypd exam in the same week. my father who sitting here today talked me out of becoming cop precisely because of the relate that even back then police officers couldn't count on the support of their communities of cities of the news media when they were engaged in something that looked controversial on video. and so i think lots of people particularly peoplepl that we wt policing people who have high level of education attainment who have high level of psychological stability people who want to become cop and serve communities these also people who have other options and when they weighgh those oping it is alongside a career in policing it is not at all surprising to me given the rhetoric of the last two years they chose other options and we're all worse off for it.

what i really, really don't want to see happen in the united states particularly in new york city is for the delta between the average cop and the average top shrink that's imheact we're going see if we make policing the sort of job that only people without options want tods. to do. [applause] thank you question in the back row. >> unfortunately we're moving in that direction. as far as choosing police officers and we see a lot of cities lower on requirements and exactly the wrong time. but that's not the issue i wanted to bring up. 65 people were shot in chicago over the last weekend. the majority of them were shot in what we normally would call drive byes. supposedly they were not known to the people who shot them. what is the impact and i think

this raises the impact of drugs in gangs on these shootings. most of these shootings i would predict is a former police officer were retaliatory involving drugs and gangs and possibly someone who ratted on someone else. and this is an issue that politicians and the media refuse to address. and it ties very much into your discussion of that it's primarily young minority males shooting other young minority males that only gets attention when a few quote unquote innocent people are caught up in the gun play. >> yeah. i think you make really good points there, and the direct answer to your question is gangs are playing huge part of the shooting violence in the city of chicago. drugs are much smaller part than you would think. dea unclassified to report i

think in 2015 that actually looked at percentage of shootings that were as a result of drug related gang and it was 5.of the shootings. however, gangre related had the marmingt or at least a large plurality. ... ories about people spending, decades in prison, on end for, you know, simple drug possession, which of course, doesn't actually really happen. only about 14% of all state prisoners are incarcerated for a drug offense. most of them have very criminal histories, very lengthy criminal histories. but but it also ignores the fact that the drug it also ignores the fact that drug enforcement is not really about drug use. drug enforcement is often understood by the police to be up tool through which supreme textually attacked mercer's violent crime. if the weather isn't crack was

rooted more harshly than powder cocaine in the 1980s. we hear a lot about the racist construction of the antidrug abuse act of 1986 would establish the disparity between crack and powdere' cocaine. while people don't tie the antidrug abuse act was cosponsored by 16 of the 19 members of the congressional black caucus at the time. not just voted for but cosponsored it past 97 -- three. black americans played a huge role in the rockefeller drug lesser new york city which is not minimum forsc crack cocaine it's a wonderful book by great scholar directed recommend to all the black silent majority by guiding michael. culturally important for us to understand that when you hear talk about drug decriminalization or end of the drug war are also talked about taking a really important tool of the law enforcement officers are trying to impact violent crime anyway they can.

there's a massive overlaps people engage inho drug offenses on those who engage in violent drug offenses. in 2070 baltimore police are identified over 100 homicide suspects. separate intent had at least one prior arrest for drugs. the idea drug offenders can be understood to mean not violent offender is deeply wrong, deeply misguided bird we are about drug abuse is important for the point made they actually do drive some of the most serious forms. violence did in the past. but as a tool to put your pain at least in the near term. and the others? the second question. hang on one second that mike is coming to you.

it's actually for gavin. [laughter] my previous question. when asked what the disparity between u.s. and europe clinton gang-related violence especially gunut violence. floyd asked asking working request from the tough cut of driest feet three how much of this is less of a a policing ise up for the department are well oiled machines. they understand the tactics the philosophy with a criminology et cetera. the failure of the judicial process. i can we fix that system to actual legislativehe reform? simply when the community is fallen intod chaos. lexi general answered your question is that it's a i political process. adult the quicken forced prosecutors bird but we can do

to stop voting and prosecutors have been very open about what they're going to do if they win the election. [applause] of a break did not hide the fact he went to de- incarcerate on a mass scale break that brought him his for the election but exactly what is going to do. what we have done we have pretended goody's operate like a well oiled machine it doesn't need maintenance but doesn't oversight we learned that iss wrong. i think just 17% of eligible voters came out from the primary. the political probably requires a political solution. one of those good ideas as to stop the bad ideas to roll those back. we're starting to see there was a real good reason.

by three strikes and you're out policies like truth in sentencing. as through the right number? probably not be its five. i know i am tired pretty rapidly tired and exhausted and reading stories of people who had 15, 20, 30 prior arrest pretend prior convictions were out on the street free to kill, to rape, to maim, to rob, to terrorize. these are real communities with real people trying to go about everyday life. they deserve better. [applause] is always have. i think all so very much is truly an honor. proceeds are watching book tv taught nonfiction books and authors every weekend. book tv for serious