>> "washington journal" continues. host: a conversation on crime trends in the u.s. with adam gelb from the council on criminal justice. what is the mission of the council? why did you started? -- start it?

guest: it is an commission of years i had in, justice and recognition there needed to be a nonpartisan think tank that wrestles with the pros and cons and the trade-offs of the policy options. we are a think tank and membership organization. host: how do you go about composing that mission? visit reports -- is it reports or lobbying? guest: no lobbying, but we try to anchor these very -- these very difficult conversations about crime and criminal justice with the facts and evidence of what is not. the primary way we do that is forming taskforces of our members, asking diverse sets of people from across different sectors, and ideologies to find common ground. we have done that in abrupt times. -- we have done that a number of times. we have been an organization in little over -- years now with

gonzales who helped us start a path. we did with sal yates and trey gowdy. we have a veterans justice commission working right now that has senator chuck hagel and former defense secretary hagel. up with a former white house chief of staff and defense secretary. we are building common ground across the political spectrum for things that actually work. host: counciloncj.org is where people can go. when we talk about crime trends, it is usually bad news first. let's flip the script. the headline on your opinion piece, on criminal justice, don't just focus on the bad news. we ignore progress at our peril. what is the progress? guest: if you look at this long-term, we are in a better

place than work. sometimes it is easy to focus on what is happening now. there is a general sense that in the country things continue to get worse. the effect of the matter is whether you are concerned mostly about crime or about the rate of incarceration in this country, both of those things have come down dramatically since the early 1990's. crime is at least 50% lower than it was in the 90's and the incarceration rate, people have an impression that the incarceration rate has continued to grow and skyrocket. in fact, it has dropped 30%. racial disparities, which is a crucial focus in this field, a lot of people think racial disparities are getting bigger and bigger. disparity gaps between blocks and whites in prison has shrunk. host: what should people know about crime trends in 2023? guest: that is a very muddy picture.

maybe some viewers are still having breakfast, so it is as clear as a glass of milk or a glass of orange juice is. it depends your time period, what day you look at. if you look over the short-term, we have been given a master class in criminology by the pandemic. looking over the past five years, what we are seeing is significant changes in motives, means, and opportunities to commit crime. that has meant a spike in violence that occurred antisocial justice protest of 2020, homicide jumping up to 40% above where it was pre-pandemic and now receding. on the property crime side where people work at home, it became harder to steal things so we saw a drop in property crimes, including retail theft. now we are seeing that rebound. we have both trends reverting

back to where we were pre-pandemic. host: the risk and follow along at councilofcj.org. their report of trends and criminal crime activity. homicide, aggravated assault, domestic violence, down year-over-year from january to june of 2022 to january of june -- anyway to june 2023. the place it is up his motor vehicle thefts. why? guest: a lot of speculation as to why and it is fascinating because motor vehicle theft is a crime that was virtually wiped out. it dropped 75% or more through a series of anti-crime techniques

and targeting truck trusts. all of those cars that were built without a mechanism that makes it more difficult to hardwire the car. this video has sparked a wave of thefts of kias and hyundais. it is not the entire situation. a lot of that is joyriding. we have seen an increase in the prices of used cars which became difficult to get. there are a number of different things driving that increase. it is one thing that runs counter to what i said about the crime trends reverting to pre-pandemic levels. motor vehicle theft continues to increase. guest:--host: up 34% year-over-year. guest: and double in the last few years. host: adam gelb is our guest of the council on criminal justice. crime trends is our topic.

before the house comes in, if you want to join the conversation, phones are regional. if you are in the center or eastern time zones, it is 202-748-8000. if you are in the mountain or pacific time zones, 202-748-8001 . go ahead and start calling in. you were talking about retail crimes, retail executives testified before the house committee -- house homeland security subcommittee. this is -- on the impact of organized retail crime. [video clip] >> i spent 36 years as an asset productions professional, apprehending shoplifters from a major department store to holding several roles with a retailer. i may just -- multi-branded global restaurant organization. i have witnessed the evolution and progression of theft across the retail industry.

shoplifting and organized retail crime is not new. the landscape of today is unprecedented and unmatched. the frequency of theft, the openness of criminals, violence, at the quantities and types of merchandise are indicators of criminal activity beyond amateur or opportunistic shoplifting. these are markers toward the proliferation and evolution of organized retail crime. networks orchestrate and influence and create demand for those committing theft and fraud. shoplifting, cargo theft, burglary scum smash and grabs, and various frauds are just a means to the end. these networks range from loosely organized, local and regional groups to highly sophisticated hierarchies operating a transnational level. these groups thrive on enabling

others to commit their crimes. they prey on the homeless, the addicted, and even victims of human trafficking. a profit from the reselling of stolen goods online, redistributing goods back into our marketplace, and the transportation of stolen goods beyond our border. we believe these groups use organized retail crime is a great way crime -- okay we crime -- a gateway crime. these groups must be the focus of our local, state, and federal efforts. host: organized shoplifting by transnational groups? explain. guest: it is very difficult to get a handle on how much of the increase we have seen the last couple of years in shoplifting at retail theft due to those organized efforts or simply based here in this country

versus lone wolves, individual people stealing for their own basic human necessities. the data is atrocious. we have tried to shed some light on this by looking at police data and understanding what is being reported to police but there's a huge chasm between what is reported to police which i think everyone acknowledges short of the total volume of these incidents and what people are hearing from the retail industry. huge numbers, $112 billion of total losses. filling in that middle is a critical thing for congress and the retail industry. host: i am going to let you chat with some viewers. out of indianapolis, indiana, independent. go ahead. caller: what i wanted to know was, has anyone thought of maybe the snatch and grabs are due to

the economy, the high pricing of items, and he goods being so high -- and if the goods being so high -- and the goods being so high? why doesn't the government to control of the price gouging? i think it is also do to homelessness. when you have lived in an apartment or home or wherever you live and the rent is going up and you watch her parents every morning going to work, doing everything they can to keep the family with a roof over their head, and all the sudden you look up and after covid -- when are they going to get control of the housing and of the price gouging? host: inflation and homelessness, impact on retail crime? guest: there does seem to be some link between inflation and

theft crimes. we are studying this more right now. we will have more out fairly soon with what the latest patterns are with respect to what has been happening. over time there has been a link there. the key distinction is between people who steal to live and people who steal for a living. that is the distinction you were getting out as well a moment ago which is very hard to get at. we don't have a good sense of the extent of the total volume of that going on from stores right now being orchestrated by people preying on homeless and other people. we say this is how i would like to make a living, i would like to steal things from stores and sell it on ebay will be part of a theft ring. that is my job. host: to new york, this is rob. good morning. you are on with adam gelb. caller: good morning.

a comment and a question. it has been reported that venezuela has control over its most violent prisons and with 500,000 immigrants released into the u.s., and we have no way of checking them. we have no commit occasion with venezuela. -- communication with venezuela. what is being done to make sure the crime done over there does not explode into the u.s.? guest: i don't have a lot for you on the border situation. this issue has become a giant political football with the notion that not only are there a lot of criminals making their way over the border along with people fleeing desperate situations, but doing so with that no rush with fentanyl -- with fentanyl.

host: which brings up another viewer's call in open form, he asked if the department of justice has any -- has done any kind of assessment on imported crime by illegal immigrants? guest: there is good research that indicates immigrants are less responsible for crime than people who are naturally born in the u.s.. you think about it over time, it makes sense as people assimilate into this country. they are coming here to seek a better life for themselves and their families. it may be rough going, but that is what they're coming here for. they built legitimate businesses and contribute to this economy and the vibrancy of our country. host: one of the reports that viewers can find on your website, homicide, other violent crimes decline in u.s. cities but remain above pre-pandemic levels.

how do you assess this? where are you getting data from? are you talking about every city in the u.s. collecting data? guest: there is any issue with respect to data collection about crime in the country. we are in a bad situation for good reasons and that is that since the 1960's, the fbi has been collecting data from police departments across the country. at the super social -- at the very superficial levels. there is a new situation that started being rolled out to try to understand crime in a much more detailed way. it has taken a long time for police departments, many of which are tiny, less than 10 officers, to have the capacity to focus on the data collection part as opposed to the crime-fighting. the department and the fbi said we are not collecting the old data anymore, we are switching

to a new system. a number of departments were not able to do that. but we had a situation where there was not a national crime report coming out. we have tried to fill that gap by taking samples of cities that published real-time data on their websites to try to give some sense of what is happening in real-time. host: when it comes to a report like this, how many cities are you talking about your pulling the data from? guest: about three dozen cities and we wish there were more that report data from a motor vehicle theft and everything in between. that is about all. host: party 83 largest in the u.s. boys is a sampling of medium and large cities? guest: it is medium and large cities. host: counselorcj.org.

if you want to call in with questions, do so on regional lines until he has comes in at 10:00 a.m. eastern -- until the house comes in at 10:00 a.m. eastern. this is claudia. caller: i wanted to ask, i have been confused about why we are saying smash and grab? isn't that stealing? i wonder why the terminology has suddenly become smash and grab. along that line, the sentiment appears to be that we don't want to call things what they are and instead -- i have watched this i think from the beginning. we have not heard any discussion about the shop owners. some of these people are

mom-and-pop businesses. when are we going to as america and people who work for a living , when are we going to talk about these people whose families have owned these shops for generations? not only can people access the shops because there are so many homeless blocking the doorway and the cities are not doing much about it. secondly, when are we going to talk about the fact that people are losing their livelihood? host: you bring up a couple of points. let me let adam gelb jump in. guest: let me start with the second one. there are a lot of people who do not seem to have much sympathy for the big national corporations that are losing money to theft. they feel in some way that these corporations are making plenty of money and this amounts to some of what percent or 2% of their total revenue so is not a big deal.

-- so it is not a big deal. that neglects the mom-and-pop's. we have seen examples of mom-and-pop stores shutting down on account of theft. it is a real tragedy for those businesses and people with jobs and for the vitality of a lot of communities and the availability of goods. on the second point with respect to smash and grab, i don't know if there is a particular terminology issue, it is widely acknowledged by people working this field that there's a difference between someone coming in and putting something underneath their coat and walking out and the mass ransacking of incidents we have seen. this is an important point, there is focus on the total volume of shoplifting incidents, the quantity of it, how much is stolen.

that conversation neglects the quality part. what we have seen and what are report documents by this more nuanced data we were talking about that is now being collected as part of the crime reporting system, how many incidents involve two or more people and how many involve any ancillary crime such as property destruction or even violent crime against a person? those things are increasing. they are a tiny part of the overall picture. when you have those incidents, they are captured on video and spread across the internet. bad news spreads further and deeper and faster than good news. people see that and he gives them a sense of lawlessness, anything goes. people feel like they can do that and get away with it.

what i worry about is if people say the chances are still so small so you should not worry about it. people have different risk tolerance for different things. people want to chance of getting in a store and having a mob of people come in and tear the place apart. they want that chance to be zero. host: one term we get caught up on his buttons. how do five assault weapons -- caught up on is assault weapons. how do defined or sold weapon? guest: -- an assault weapon? guest: an assault weapon is generally thought of as something that will fire multiple rounds with one single squeeze of the trigger. host: you were in congress, did you work on the assault weapons man -- weapons ban? guest: i did. host: what role did you play?

guest: i was staffed to the senate judiciary committee. that was a christmas tree build, it committed all kinds of ornaments including the violence against women act, pulleys on the streets, funding for -- it also included a lesser-known provision, one that gave the justice department the authority to investigate patterns and practices of bias in policing. that power the justice department has been using to try to help police departments be more effective and more equitable in their practices came from the climb -- from the crime bill. host: on the assault weapons band, did that work? guest: there is evidence that it did reduce the number of deaths by assault weapons. it expired.