>> we'll know more tomorrow morning. hindelburg center, we're on social media if you want to play with your phone and offer events tonight and we have hash tags and handles up there and tonight's discussion about

israel and hamas and hezbollah and all the tragic activity going on in the middle east, it's definitely one with a great deal of emotion for many americans and i'm sure for many people inan the audience and we share thateo emotion. please be respectful of others

you're sharing that space with on youtube. asking a question, keep them brief and in a form of question and no long speeches and you can give the long speeches later

>> a veteran of the daily beast and the newspapers among other activities. next to david is mark palmer and had war zone tours and he's maybe familiar to many of you if you watch nbc on early morning hours and having been featured on some of the morning shows as

national security correspondent and turning over to david to get the conversation going.rs >> thank you, larry. appreciate it. as larry said, this isn't a policy event. we know there's a lot of emotional energy going for these and we're going to be talking about it, but none of us want unless you took a new job this afternoon, none of us are representatives of the u.s. government, nor the israeli government, nor hezbollah or hamas or government of luxembourg. we're observers and analysts and trying to in our tradition explain and help in his understanding of howgovernment

is supposed to work and intention informed diplomacy and military action.

>> they said tough be on the air in five minutes and a 3500 hamas

terrorist army invaded israel. i looked at my wife and visiting my son playing in a college baseball game and said did we drink too much last night? noting that we were quite shocked, and the first thing that came to mind of course is that israel, this is israel's 9/11, not because of the gravity of the attack and astounding loss of life but what was clearly an intelligence failure and having worked in the region and worked with the israelis, i was pretty surprised. if you've kind of getting into the granularity of the israeli intelligence community, gaza is not -- was not the responsibility and a lot of us in cia in particular worked heavily with masad and they're recruiting sources and human agents and i did this for a living for cia. it's that granular intelligence based on single source that can tell you you can thursday and saturday and can tell you what cans going to happen.

so it's almost inconceivable this occurred and did it fail in this mission and turns out with a lot of very great reporting from certainlyly from the media both the united states and in israel, there's a lack of human intelligence. there were other signs. david you eluded to this and waters along the boarder and there's going to be a r that's going to happen and there's going to be a very comprehensive after action and going to learn with a lot more.

it was david and reports from them on the boarder and they were ignored and going to be a lot of inter-spection about them and north israeli officers reporting in and ignored by the authority. ultimately going to work in the region and only has one piece here and it's a little controversial per happens and this also going for nem and they're not surprised and collectively intelligence services of the region failed in

that.appy to respond to that. i want to add one thing of what marcus said. this is a classic example of strategic surprised. typically strategic x prize is always characterized by a groupthink based on a set of assumptions you create a prism through which you see the world.

every bit of information you receive you interpret on the basis of those assumptions. i had been in israel this summer before. i had seen most of the senior security and intelligence people and they were all describing hamas deterred. they were all describing cinnabar as having a prisoners mentality meaning they understood who he was. prisoners have a way of trying to increase pressure as a way of getting some response. and they would say look what he wants is to expand the area were gaza fishermen can go it pretty was to give more work permits it. we know how to deal with him. when he raises tension along the border tip countries to provide more money per this is a collective view. we have that groupthink you create this. what is on the morning of october 7 hear what was the government going to be doing? how is he going to respond? having been in circumstances not

quite like this but when sharks took a place, i can tie the first thing to try to do she try to get a picture what exactly is happened? but the very first thing you're going to do pre-bring intelligence people in to tell you this is what you see this with going on the next thing you're going to do is contact the israelis and find out all right, where are you in terms of responding? what is the situation in the south in a circumstance like october 7 the first impulse is going to get a sense of where the israelis are. there's bound to be an understanding they were in the state of shock. this was something for them they cannot imagine happening. when it does happen and it happened on a religious holiday. it's 50 years plus a day after

the 73 war which took place. they are in a state of shock the first thing to trying to do is not is to ascertain what is it's going on but try to get a sense of what you need from us? how can we reassure you? one dimension folks that focus exclusively for this another one focused on we have to make sure no one else is going to do anything. in that circumstance ensure the administration very quickly focused on what are the irani's gonna do? we need to send messages to them. we need to line up others who to deal directly with him. the more you become involved, the more you will draw us in. you don't want to do that. that circumstance

in terms of policy maker, not just politics but policy maker, try to reassure the israelis, try to see what needs to be done not just to reassure them but channel their behavior because when you're in a statuette shock you're not going to necessarilyn make the best decision. you're trying to influence that. you want to keep as localized as you can and trying to ensure that those at peace with israel will also play a certain role. no doubt that we would have been talking to the egyptians immediately because they are right on the gaza border and also trying to find out from them and it's not like the egyptians didn't know what hamas

was doing, they were taken by surprise. you focus on others internationally who you want to make part of a coalition of support for both containing this but also trying to reassure the israelis. these are the kind of -- of plead questions that will be raised in the areas that you want to be working in. >> nancy, i will ask you to wear two hats. one is your own as a journalist working in your own case, war zones and high-stressed areas. first, i want you to channel your own reportingng and those a your leagues from military officers. similar to what mark and dennis have said, walk us through military forces, deployed in embassies, deployedd with allies in the region, october 7th, how did they react, house has the mentality change from the body of reporting that you've done and what are they prepared to do

when there's a crisis involving a u.s. ally? >> thank you so much for having me.or i'm delighted to speak to all of you. i guess sort of set the scene october 7th which was the u.s. military was looking to move out of the middle east. the plan was that the u.s. wouldn't keep carriers there for a sustained period of time after doing so for years down for the. military effort will be twofold. one, supporting ukraine and getting weapons and munitions that needed to prevail. and to start to pivot united states military particulates navy tort threats from russia and china. you'll never at the time a big part of the discussion was 2027 was the year xi jinping would like to be in a position militarily to potentially challenge taiwan.

and so it's up and luck october 7 happens, like the intelligence community, at the diplomatic community, the military was surprised. because the military is a very large organization and has its own intelligences generals are diplomats there many ways they played many of the same roles that my two colleagues had spoken about. that u.s. has a defense attaché in israel. and it has contacts through its leadership with its israeli counterpart. the same shock movement described we so depending on times. militarily they have to think about moving assets into the region for two things. one comment to protect their own resources in the region. you will remember despite the drawdown kept a large ground her presence in iraq and syria and throughout the gulf. in an area where there is iranian backed proxies all over. the first image so to see that

military do was to move patriots and other in a place more than 200 and all over the course of this last year, starting octobe. >> giving we started seeing the u.s. military movements naval assets in the region to help defend israel and we have seen use of those naval assets rated in response to the october attacks because of the destroys were key to bringing down ballistic missiles have the water just cruise missiles. i think the one complication that came up and also through

pump out of the situation started to see yemen patient noncommercial traffic through the red sea and the commercial shipping fundamentally changed in a matter of weeks and i had bringing that carrier strike group, to try to protect ships going to become an or attacks they just did not anticipate. so have military the literally overnight, when from sort of planning for one kind of threat, having shipped all three to one that they did not expect all those had second and third order effects because every time that you have full resources into place that you didn't expect resort to borrowing time in the future towards the threats that you know are coming on the road from countries like china and russia so what we seen simply as military have a surge of other defensive for itself, for israel. doing so would be understandings

at the expense of other parts of the world. we now see the u.s. military was how long it can do this it will cost is a strike the new balance. the original plan was the middle east is ever trouble with u.s. forces were temporary time, the go back to the original planning. now entering the year two of this warrant so what is temporary what is mean when is no longer an option and you rebalance this in such a way that you can support drilling region of u.s. endangered of the parts of the world because of this unexpected demand in the middle east. >> thank you and marco pick up on something she said goodbye you on the intelligent side. you just heard that it was almost 50 years to the day, after the last work in the u.s. context, we know after 911, so much introspection and somebody study so many reviews what could

we have done and veteran collection and analysis to predict 911 israelis did that. and 73 that didn't really well meta- studies entire books dissertations have been written reflecting on the lessons since 1973 rated one of us had the assumption that okay israel has a step up on strategic surprise because they learned the hard way actually nonpoint be surprised like this when you make the fact on the irony 50 years almost to the day after that, this could happen even in military intelligence culture that trains the kind of failure and how to avoid it and into every single person to have one think the answer to that is two fold as you know there is an element here that panama develops alternate community which is actually good and intelligence communities is world-class. i think what happened was he

came over reliant upon technology particular when he came to the use of sensors and drones but they also became trapped in your right surprisingly became trapped in what is really because he was pretty and it was to since payoff thomas any quiet. this is with of course to the countries. this is something that again in retrospect we see some of the reporting, and if — went to prime minister benjamin netanyahu and asked if they should still do this in the answer was yes and even the u.s. and ministration to be okay with it is all because i got hamas was in its box and so became will overall one's own technology at the became trapped by policy that you think is working nothing for a lot of people the intelligence business, that's a really good reminder jeff to stand on her toes intelligent assumptions and as new people in the after

action report review will be brutally think the hardest part of it is that the risk would be mid to junior level officers with intelligence community you did provide that morning. we have an agenda point is important because the days after that, think a lot of people both i'm sure current u.s. intelligence officers but also a lot of formers remember to back tonight 11 feeling that we had 911 what is that we found americans a terrible feeling and of course gives you the strange result to fight back within the conversations i had with intelligence officers they have the same feeling this was a catastrophic fail when the things and perhaps will get to it in the biggest these really intelligence committee has pulled themselves up by the bootstraps and again condemning or condoning what is occurred at first but the bottom line in

terms of the threat from hamas to carry out another october 7th attack and curly what israel is doing rather remarkable fashion to hezbollah in many way intelligent community as rebounded from that catastrophic failure the notion of be very careful don't believe your own-every intelligence officer has to remember this and to your point there mcginnis was also the issue of how do you inform the policymakers for secondary effects. >> intelligence is not always good that because it's really hard it's hard and it was but he also going to do much less help other actors will react to that and other variables playing an overlong period of time bit of the lesser of the seas administrations had to make some tough choices. as have many other governments and entities howdy think that is played out in terms of the

factors of how will enron command f at all and how has know what react and these are very complicated dynamics do not have a clear precedent several book to go to say these exact factors have occurred in this way and so from a policymaking perspective how do you deal with such complexity and high-stakes the subject short period of time. >> all insertion having clear objectives and you have to make good assessments and what the reality is and what is happened in context we've just had a shock forcing them to do how do we sort of stabilize to the extent that we can and we try to minimize the more broad fall out in this. what is the real objectives that we have the biden administration a lot of understandable reasons to the basic objective was just trying to contain this is much

we can this try to reassure reef entries realities, the me understand what is happening here we understand that no one could live with this kind of a group next-door them. so try to reassure them on the other hand will contain things on the other. i don't think that there was more defined the objectives beyond that but which are really asking for a situation like that is when you immediate objectives needs but he two or three steps to the road to try play chess in a circumstance like that, choppers and to be fair any administration will immediately deal with one of the immediate challenges and somebody comes in sandwiching play chess right now so let's think through our second and third and fourth removes it probably not going to be listened to just because the

pressure of the moment in the sense will be so overwhelming. i think within a relatively short period of time for me to have to be asking yourself the question what do we want to come out of this we really do want to be in a situation we get back to october 6th. want to be in a situation where the context because of the saw commotion also focus on and we change the circumstances not only so don't simply revert to a set of both unlikely in any case but also, is this something that can be made of this. something is more hopeful we can create out of this pretty not because you have a tragedy if we want to be pollyanna, but because we have a huge event, i come from california so the national instinct is to fall back to earthquakes right there's earthquake the one thing

that you know as the land will resettle him from a policy making simply before the landry settles, what can you do to change the circumstances because this has created as bad as it is, also creates potential opportunity how can you begin to focus on what could be a potential opportunity and i already acknowledged is pretty hard to get anybody to focus on that the first days what you really want to try to steer an orientation towards that within relatively short period of time and also because trying to influence that there in a state of shock him go under no plans of the show up to deal with this because they did not think this could happen and partly it was humorous but they believed the equivalent of october 7th this what hezbollah and top chart from the north as they build up

the capabilities of the north and they have a extremely having to say it, right wing government combination of messianic nationalists in a coalition with the religious most right wing government you've ever seen in israel so is a very strong subtle components into this respecting violence and they were insisting the idea you have to stop the violence so it was much they were presence in the north and west bank it also presents itself partly because you're complacent and partly because you do not think that hamas has an interest in war. sue don't have a plan on the shelf. not thinking in terms of will is what we have to do in terms of ensuring hamas could never again be a threat dear the terms will eradicate hamas could not eradicate isis we could defeat them.

one of the things they president biden tried to do right ways to take a group of unprecedented for the market present to get israel during wartime basically saying don't make mistakes we did. after 911 which is council but is still need to be tied to wealth what is the objective and if it is hamas can american be a threat come okay was talk about what it takes a village hamas could never again be a threat militarily, and it will be astute will be politically central what is it take to be able to get to that and i think that's what i would've liked to seen more discussion of even those easy for me to sit here and say that in retrospect when you're dealing with a crisis of the shop of the momenta, it is also easy to be focused on what is more voted consequences and how can we focus on not just the

immediate need about one of the more strategic objectives we would like to set. >> that's what i think what you would like to see in a circumstance like this. >> you talk about the need for military planning how that wasn't when there. in the militant is how this war is complicated free the best militaries talking about going onto a very dense urban environment where you believe that hamas fighters are hiding among civilians and sites. when the u.s. will when after isis and chance to tour and right afterwards missy was completely destroyed. the people had someplace to go they could leave the same thing and will do you talking about a more entrenched hamas more densely populated area with no place to go so i just really say there was no plan plan would've

been required us demanding of any military because the complex of the site soon enough try to minimalize it. >> i completely agree with what you said and there was we look at them all they could leave and because i come the cannot leave. we go through all the reasons that he jumped was a fight if they left, they would never go back and they were afraid that they were planning to narrative that this was individuals objective for dealing with the palestinians nobody wanted to play into the narrative the question is hadley early on, try to focus on maps find some way out and have been a set of insurances, maybe that would begin make this part of a larger political strategy what i'm saying is not trying to minimize the difficulties was immense and emma emissary made it part of think clearly is easy sitting

here in retrospect sag i can see clearly what should be done but really you started with the first question of what is it and policymaker diplomats should be doing i'm trying to always them in a situation we have a shot, to take a step back and as hard as it is to think about okay we have a set of tactical immunities but we also have strategic objectives let's discuss that pretty. >> on to constantly mentioned as well, because a lot of these retrospectives that we have seen in the last few weeks about one year since october 7, there is naturally a lot of coverage of the human invention. i think a lot of coverage of policy choices made by the israeli government and since october 7th much less on the experiences of journalist of the generals who are underground in gaza after october 7th engine was the new in israel and lebanon was like to be an active

war zone bringing the kind of reporting union colleagues have provided, talk to a little bit of the mentality and how your perspective changes as a journalist of the ground in the circumstances. >> so i spent some use in iraq and afghanistan and covered anything from egypt and libya printed but i have never covered a conflict like venice where my blood country my birth country was coming into this kind of attack. remember that was rootless cannot get into gaza prevented from going there we were depending upon local journalists around some of them had limited communications services at times and you tell them doing everything that they could to let the world see what was happening was incredible attack on civilian infrastructures and sites when you later 70% of the buildings gaza are damaged or destroyed in this extraordinary

amount of impact in every day civilians and community were distinguishing between civilians and poets very complicated. and i find myself thinking about the journalist because your friend devon we saw them running about the death of their families and friends of the homes moving from one place to another they were essential remain essential to our understanding of what is happening now we see it play out in lebanon as well. waiting for briefing my colleagues whose liberties, hundred phone and said this is my families house in beirut to start a week ago she does not know what she sent me 30 years with my dad worked, is gone read as a journalist, depending upon colleagues who are suffering through this in a very real way, depending on their perspective

and together challenge journalists is that as a producer journalism, joyce given the readers the feedback they want us to validate the points of view and this is the time of thousand image trying to give the people some perspective and then demand signal validating vy divisive issue has been the other challenge for those of us writing more than anything is been a year watching your colleagues suffer have no idea i will never know. twenty of noise to that net the same time, engage the readers in such a way that there is some room for me to get perspective without the expectation validating up with you. >> i would encourage you to think about question because will start to take them in a few minutes, you take me 21 this pretty we would who have held

this event a year ago today set for october 7th, would've been talking about how much damage to the attack actually do when will hostages be returned pretty how wide the conflict spread how deep will ago and how much will a government in israel that may be pruned to react massively will be the secondary effects from that read seems to be were facing a lot of the same questions now would not resolve that we have new information on some of the things that going forward personal facing some of the same questions in regards to lebanon and perhaps by the time the event is over iran we don't know and more first bellevue reflect on that when we know now that we did not know exactly a year ago and we really facing the same fundamental questions showing a lot of ground we could you tennis, may have been done as much as we expect.

>> twenty looking back now and again, this is talking about the first essay hours and days after october 7th is i think the way that i would portray it was when the u.s. counterterrorism community thinking. >> forty-six americans were killed october 7th about and that means that if you work u.s. national security establishment with us all that matters 46 americans were killed and mass casualty event i'm not sure we understood that that day. another part of it has to do with nothing but when kind of the strong is really response against hezbollah but also you know the open heart surgery and is really forces opening on them. and hezbollah sought to be temporally total this was an innocent deterrence that iran had to brand a strike on iranian

nuclear facilities that absolutely done extraordinary damage you get the something that if you getting of us would've thought that even they were possible so thinking these things through is also we have do we miss judge we not realize how israel had been so effective in like we talked about previously the reaction in gaza after 2006, the disastrous work of the israeli intelligence military establishments had absolutely focused on hezbollah and the israeli intelligence community treated them to the cornea sought operation such as walkie-talkies and pagers and you saw nearly the first second third and fourth now no longer existing begin thinking back now extraordinary that's occurred printed with the final piece unknown kind of jumping around something nothing is really critical to try to reflect the noise the role of intelligence in the region rated and he

certainly will remember this from this time there that some of the foundations these bilateral relationships between israel and the intelligent side of the house one of the things that i have seen that is actually surprised me in a sense in a positive way is that the relationship between for example the israeli and intelligence community help between the deity station i work with closely than focused king — more ministers been critical of the israel is been quietly behind the scenes still working because hamas casinos, enemy as is hezbollah because of the fear of iran in her proxy. something back now i would ask nancy and i think this is my story for the future. in a sense of these bilateral intelligence relationships that israel enjoys' like partners the fact that they have help now i talk about opportunities for the

future perhaps something that will lead something positive coming out of that word ever be normalization with this kind of awful conflict is come to an end. >> below me two very distinct dimensions and one something i've spent a lot of my life trying to produce which is really houston in peace and the other relates to how the region strategically may have changed because of where we are not necessarily in a negative way. slimmest over the first one. for israelis, so october 7th of 2023. they still have 101 hostages by 50 percent were live and how much longer who knows how long will be alive pretty you travel anywhere and is really see the pictures everywhere everybody knows somebody.

are the reason is so october 7th of 2023, part of the reason is there's never been an explanation of what happened strategic surprise we gain these labor there's never been explosion and an explanation way to the idea erc down to the south no excrement and expedition for and also understating for a commission is also because there's no accountability and no accountability to the military no accountability for the political leadership and so the trauma of october 7th is very much i would say, something that describes a reality today the consumed by the trauma. palestinians are also consumed by, because the level of debt the description 70 percent of the buildings you destroyed or partially damaged. the death and destruction community does not matter that amounts to build underground city the nobody no palestinians

in gaza could go into the tunnels to get protection it doesn't matter the numbers release from palestinian skim the numbers of people who have been killed for nothing instruction is overwhelming, they have, read public's and society that are traumatized, the consumed by their own sense of pain no capacity to feel anybody is the space of the idea that we can take these two traumatized societies were going to suddenly transform them into making peace, does not fit the psychological or the political reality in the united states and does not mean to have hands and you do nothing because that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy but as a reminder that one of the things you have to do this is over, some portably but it's over, you have to focus on how you begin even to establish the idea this release policies cooperated a functional level just to show the cooperation is

still a possibility yes you going to have to create some kind of legal vision is the political track with a sense of reality in the idea that you could suddenly move in the direction of palestinian state of the is really convince a state will be led by thomas a group like that that's just not benjamin netanyahu, this the government and the president brought to bite you going to have to have an approach that demonstrates is going be a palestinian state a series of benchmarks would have to meet before we demonstrate for israelis public predict that this is not going to be little threat in the same talking coming cannot allow israeli government if you're requiring something of palestinians, gwen graham make it impossible to have one so going to create some parallels in here in terms of responsibility i guess that i would also say as hard as that will be, is now has dramatically weekend and through that phase from hamas dramatically weekend

the threat of from hezbollah in the two fronts in gaza and lebanon border come the realities of fundamentally different pretty the most important proxies there that iran has by far was hezbollah, fall under for variety reasons in this successfully islamic revolution they trained in this case also militia, they trained him they built their local arms industries and hezbollah was a critical player throughout the region and one and 50000 rockets were designed to deter the israelis from going after destruction around. this basically been fundamentally weekend. so that suggests the active resistance is not what it was now maybe also creates a context for thinking about how you try to change this for the better pretty never do think that you cannot do it if you do that will work and i just conclude with

this then i think that the administration has had a very logical event and morally appropriate strategy trying to end the war by getting by doing hostage deal the whole approach was you to finalize facility is really normalization deal which will have to have a palestinian dimension which will allow you to be a political processor pretty hello back, distorted logical and even morally right because we had american hostages the 46 gilbert also american hostages who were among those being held in the problem was even if you assume prime minister benjamin netanyahu was serious about wanting to do a hostage over the whole approach may arbiter whether or not you could succeed. maybe it was worth testing. it was definitely worth testing think he always needed to have an alternative and in my mind it was how about an approach that

focuses so the julie the word about getting the work hostages released. now here may sounds far-fetched but israelis when it comes to gaza, they have dismantled hamas as a military and they have destroyed most of the hamas military infrastructure meeting the weapons depots and labs, weapon production first intent facilities leaves half of the tunnels. ...

you focus on creating some kind of interim approach for gaza which has to have a powerful dimension to it. then you are actually in a position to say look, you need to be able to declare success. it doesn't look like for that far from it. and 11 on it as are now not a moment given the complete disarray just before i came i saw the video of one of the hezbollah camp assured completely cut off from everybody. not a surprise given the loss of command, control, communications. the local commanders the senior looked already. the guys replacing them, because we could not contact them they ran off. so hezbollah is in a state of total disarray.

you couldn't change the reality there as well. i'm not trying to suggest everything is going to be great during the current circumstances you have some potential to transform what the realty looks like and it is worth making that effort. question reflections when your u later? what's the areas i've been focused on at the start of the worthy by the administration made it clear it was not going to alter that impact sped up weapon sales to israel in support of it. not only is operation in gaza but also in lebanon. we saw one shipment of 2000-pound bombs in a protest to the israeli approach. both flush on my mind secretary defense secretary state open the door for the first time in a

very formal way. i'm curious how the or changes have the u.s. and israel weapon sales happen during the bite of ministration with think we have seen only in israel but across the world's use of weapon sales as a foreign policy. i'm interested because of the beat i cover i'm interested in how this changes the u.s. military for the u.s. is learned a lot from ukraine. participantwatching what's happn israel and lebanon very closely. but also to mentos with assertions and assumptions on how it would be those have all been up and it houses change how the u.s. military thanks about threats? houses strike that balance? can it really be in all places or does it have to prioritize? do we see a shift in u.s. approach not out of a change in

israeli/u.s. relations but out of a need of resource limitations requires a different footprint in the region. it's a very journalist answer because i'm also cover stories. those are stories i can do in my head but those are some the areas as we enter ear to of the conflict. >> quotes are now welcome your questions as you reach to the mic on the right, your left or the left, you're right please introduce yourself if you like. please ask a question also is directed to a particular panelist please say that otherwise will look at each other and decide who will answer by psychic communication pleas from asserting the side. [inaudible] quick a look and hear me? i'm from italy and also with the navy. my question is for mr. ross.

how long did it take but we can think of the troops put in the long term they have the support. so my question is what is it take and also our allies. it's an nato ally has hamas itself. what do use more a war for diplomacy like china and russia does with our alliance to push them to the terrorist groups and make the disarmament, and political parties and columbia are other countries. and finally have a stop on this thank you. first i would say have not seen a whole lot of success on the russians and the chinese being

able to change the behavior of their allies or non- allies. i think what is required this is a classic example of why we need to be building a coalition. what is it we are trying to achieve and how do we create a division of labor among coalitions? one example i was getting at is can we build in gaza when the war is over you have to have a combination of reconstruction has billed to administration and security. you have to build to manage that ensure the authority is reformed to the point it could play a role on time could reunify the west bank of gaza.

we note the uae is prepared to play rule is inconceivable but not letting anyone else when after not playing the rule what would we expect of ourselves? what would others require of us to be prepared to play more of a role there as well? if you're moving along those lines and they still want the defense treaty with us they know they do not get the defense treaty without normalization. they require a dimension for that. they might be called credible pathway to a state has to be done in a way these really don't view it as a fundamental threat but the israelis have to assume a set of responsibilities themselves this is a moment to try to put together a broader coalition especially because you've got plenty of her allies don't see anything like this

happen again. can we persuade everybody there is a moment i was almost a vacuum in the vacuum gets filled it's better for us to fill it then to have the kind you usually fill vacuums going to do that. what to seek some balance to go to the side. hooks given the main objective was to take hostages, given the fighters were only likely armed the israelis bombed their own military base. given the israelis fired tank around the doomed building housing hostages is it possible the israeli military killed more israelis on october 7 that hamas did? contentment might explain the hannibal directive?

>> it's a jumble who wants it? >> and think some of the statements that you made are probably a bit of dispute in terms of what happen oc happene7 and some the actions that were taken by the earth really forces that responded. the commission will uncover this this. this lot of questions what happened that day i think we had be very careful and talk about friendly fire incidents and things that happen in the fog of war i would challenge the notion the israelis killed more of their own peoples than the hamas members did i would think that is inaccurate. correct thank you. hopefully for the commission. >> helping independent commission.

there thank you all for this presentation. my question is for mark you talk about intelligence failure on the israel, u.s., georgian, et cetera i cannot help but wonder was or not intelligence failure on the part of the other side? this serious reaction israel launched they seem to be reporting hamas anticipated that once they made their attack would of course would help them. was there a rounding intelligence that really know hamas is going to do this and screw up so badly and because of problems for them? we use the word proxy which is a one of country kind of controls or influences.

not sure there's so much proxies on the part of the other side. quickly raise some outstanding questions let's go at it piece-by-piece. first about this a lot of unknowns. the conventional wisdom at the beginning i conducted the attack. as was laid out a multiple press accounts but in order to cause of problems. that may be the case what you are seeing on their thrillers have been releasing this over the last couple days are documents they have uncovered which gives a little bit or a new idea on what they were thinking. the israelis have a lot of

experience. there's some psychological profiles but you reach a very interesting point a bunch more of an expectation that hezbollah, iran help other allies in the middle east would have responded. let's flip to the key intelligence question that i think you raise the degree of ronnie and acknowledge the iranian involvement i will credit nancy's paper at the wall street journal who very early on wrote a piece from the correspondence in the region that said iran was in the know. this was disputed and backed by the israeli intelligence company. take it with a grain of salt. they look to be legitimate.

one can argue the notion of a iranian surprised is not accurate. on this debate began several months ago you did two things. you should also record that the notion that their romans were surprised never made sense to me and others who i speak with. and now it turns out they may have happened much more fully aware of this. that then leads to the really serious questions u.s. policymakers will have to think about. forty-six americans were killed on that day but that's direct iranian involvement or one could go down that line with the iranians are doing in terms of assassination plots former u.s. officials. you see and iran which is

perhaps not as benign an actor in this who were surprised who were concerned there's all the notions they don't what a wider war there's a lot behind that there is some intelligence being under covered the is a much more nefarious actor in this. that's an important subject the next administration whoever they will be perturbed. >> could i jump in on that? your questions are so interesting and the way it brings the conversation full-circle. that we don't know one year later why iran, these key actors acted the way they did i think it makes it harder and answers at least one reason it's been harder to figure out how to get to our resolution but what the objectives are what everybody

involved was aiming for. the invasion of iraq, everybody must've understood each of the better year in we understood what everyone was aiming for even if their names were off. how do we answer some the questions we've been talking about? without being able to answer that very basic question of why. the building with both you said you back to hunger? conclusion are they going to draw on no way they want the results should be he would end up dead. no way. they look at what is happened to a very important factor for them and i think they have to say okay, whoever was responsible for shaping these policies, maybe we should not listen to the fight so much.

[laughter] we see a bit of a debate going on right now anyway. but that gets to the question of it was not only the israelis who were surprised. >> will take a question here. >> it's an interesting discussion. i'm from georgia dubai phd you mentioned i want to hear more from you about the implications which was brought after the one year of war contacts in gaza. last summer is back from georgia with my son trying to have that nice weekend.

with the diversity we have orthodox church i wanted to show my son the city we are living. we went first to the church. he enjoyed it, he learned a lot. we went to a mosque, he liked it. when i told him were going to the senegal he was scared. he said no we are not going for we are muslims, they're going to kill us. i am not implying that's the reality. what i am trying to say there is there'sa huge population muslim population which was the influence of social media. are seeing what is happening. yesterday the mosque attack which killed 15 kids. live averting people.

that tragedy not only affects israel, palestine it's the worst pain is felt by people living. but it has implications on muslims around the world. and humanity. how much is enough? the support of israel, america that is amazing. i've faced by muslim population around the globe. thank you. at what cost? look at this in a counterterrorism perspective in several ways one is the actual

operation run against certain groups have hamas and hezbollah were not going to say destroyed that's not really words using the counterterrorism community. both are designated terrorist groups both of killed americans a lot of us make a very good point in term of a radicalization. the u.s. counterterrorism community and i just heard the acting director of the national characters in center for there is a huge concern on radicalization throughout the world because of what is happening gaza that something not condemning or condoning but you have to take this very

seriously. at manifest in several ways in terms of monitoring the threats to the united states both here and abroad. number one will hamas turn into an insurgency? the palestinians in gaza be so outraged they join en masse again question together aspect of the radicalization of lone wolf attackers huge concern and the u.s. community this is something we may see for your sick him because of what is happening gaza. again this is not condemning or condoning israeli behavior and civilian counsel sheet isn't something serious is very hard for us officials to counteract this. i was just talking to my former colleague and friend in the fbi public joint terrorism task force each major american city made up of different federal

agencies their absolute focus on it. there is a concern with social media, individuals being able to be recruited online that a lone wolf will take action based on what they have seen in the region. so again. >> will have time for all questions and the reception after words. well time for one or two more questions in the session. go ahead. >> thank you, good evening and thank you for your time. my name is jack i'm law school i'm also a lebanese dual citizen as such i would like to ask a question with future of lebanon which was mentioned briefly during the panel. a couple interesting things will spark my line of thought was firstly a proxy of iran. not only are they a proxy, has

said himself over the course of multiple they directly answer to the essentially a marinette or puppet now that they have been decapitated think he mentioned this presents an opportunity, it never let a good crisis go to waste as they say. so what you all think is an open matter would be the alternative to a control of lebanon which can only occur because of them violating u.s. security council maintaining a monopoly over lebanon. i was a quick aside the head of the lebanese forces met to discuss the future of lebanon a vacant seat that's ongoing for r couple of years. considering the lebanese

government has not picked up the trash in 30 years and lebanon into stewart around the western powers the u.s./saudi arabia and israel. what you see is a vision for state building and lebanon to have that be aligned with western security concerns and goals? i will start. you made a point quite correctly would not have a president in lebanon since left office in october 31. almost exactly two years ago. that's because they made sure known he wasn't acceptable could become president. the first step would be killed we get to allow the parliament

to convene and vote for a new president. can the u.s., french, and saturdays can they work together the question earlier about butcoalitions can they create ts kind of coalition to make a difference or the has the authority more than acting prime minister? to be able to authorize the lebanese army not only to be out in force within beirut but deployed to the south as well. now, can that be tied once you have can reach an agreement will be a cease-fire? collectively 1701 required not to be south.

no rearming of hezbollah. it was never observed. the robust unit felt was supposed to prevent from operating in the south. it was hezbollah that kept unicoi from him being in the south the premise of israel after the secretary-general of the un to move away from what our positions right next to these compounds built. so the question becomes, with the lebanese army be more prepared to act? if not for the enforcement recognitions they're prepared to come up with? if there are enforcement mechanisms you were just want to see every right thing replaced like it was before except for maybe i'm political set of leaders and i say this with some

trepidation. we have not exactly seen political leaders in lebanon seem prepared to assume more of a state responsibility. but can they be reinforced to the point where they would? i do not have a magic solution but i think there is a sequence of steps that you would want to see. all the great words which is the economic factor. lebanon was just starting to rebuild itself thing i've not heard invests in the way they did after the civil war to rebuild the downtown we saw and have a real economic revitalization.

it's part of the diplomatic governance part that you outlined. as we think about the post- conflict is the, equally complex economic situation. also put pressure on you this time for one more question so please finish this up. thank you. >> hi i am teresa. i'm a student volunteer and i have a question. at least publicly usg and taking action against hamas but particular give it numerous hostages usc it is troubling. she and the u.s. should been involved publicly? we don't know his youtube's we cannot ask for clarification protect that where you want to in terms of where the u.s. policy stands now but not in terms were necessarily should

be. that's my impression. >> alright i will start. because you had american hostages we had a responsibility. the truth is don't see hostages being taken. should have felt a need to get the hostages released unconditionally. that was a desirable goal you're not going get hamas to do that. how we could build i would say israel did not act in a way that made it easier to keep the pressure on hamas. israel is acting in a way, i read an article about this very

early on, what are the mistakes he is released made from the beginning was not to be forthcoming of the issue of humanitarian assistance. from the very beginning of israel would be more forthcoming on the issue of humanitarian assistance is hard as that might been because the israeli public felt how should we do anything gazans on her hostages are being held? there is no access for red cross and the like. israel needed time and space to be able to deal with their military objectives but will make to produce time and space was to show going after hamas. i would've been easier to keep the frame on hamas and their responsibility. i want to comment briefly on the question raised earlier.

the way the words been conducted. it's a really cool dilemma. if you're dealing with hamas that basically treats its whole public not as human shields but the public that's willing to be martyrs. the public is never asked what they want to be martyrs. israel had a choice to either go after hamas and unfortunately are going to see a lot and gaza get killed or we do not go after hamas and hamas wins that way. israel answered that missing or going after hamas. they did not do it i was suggesting which was to show they did the maximum they could to relieve the humanitarian conditions and try to minimize to the extent they could the casualty. the consequence of that is, it's going to be with us for some time to come. probably less in gaza than you

might think there is a recent poll that's out that shows 7% of the gazans want hamas to still control gaza, 7%. was a lot of anger at israel as you can imagine. that may not be true internationally somehow kept the focus on hamas so it should have been the net effect is it travels quite a bit throughout the middle east over the last year. when you are watching any of the arab satellite tv, you are seeing death and destruction and gaza and how can you not be moved like that? part of it we need to be doing in terms of a policy more generally i think is showing or doing everything we can to try to change the reality of the aftermath of this war. won't be easy there are some

possibilities here have to think about how it feels possibilities also have a frame the objective in seeing this possibilities is. >> please all weekend book tv will be live with the miami book fair coverage begins at 10:00 a.m. eastern on sat and 11:00 a.m. eastern on sunday. highlights includes stacey abrams author of the children's book, stacy speaks up. malcolm gladwell with revenge of the tipping point and author ron table featuring day berry and stephen kick and at 8:00 p.m. eastern, astro physicists mario explains search for life outside of earth in his book earth exception ea. on after words, stephanie shares the icon and

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