adequate intelligence for this state. >> so america would go blind in terms of intelligence gathering. >> it would, sir, in time. >> in time. let's go to iran. keep this as a goal. the marines' goal is survival. do you agree? >> yes, sir. >> do you think they have made a decision that maybe the best way to survive is to develop a nuclear weapon? >> we've said consistently that they will base this on a cost benefit analysis. >> do you think they're trying to develop a nuclear weapon? do you think that's their goal? >> they're sustaining the infrastructure to enable them to make that decision, yes, sir. >> do you think they build these power plants for possible nuclear power generation purposes? >> that remains to be seen.

>> do you have doubts about the iranians' intention when it comes to making a nuclear weapon? >> i do. >> so you're not so sure they're trying to make a bomb? >> i'm sorry? >> you doubt whether or not they are trying to create a nuclear bomb? >> i think they are keeping themselves in the position to make that decision, but there are certain things they have not yet done and not done for some time. >> how would we know when they have made that decision? >> i'm happy to discuss that with you in closed session. >> i guess my point is i take a different view. i'm very content they're going down the road of a nuclear weapon. i can't read anyone's mind, but it seems logical to me that they get a nuclear weapon, they take control of north korea and nobody else will bother them. let's talk about nuclear capability in the hands of the iranians. is that a good outcome for the

united states security interest, if they were able to achieve nuclear capability? >> absolutely not, to have a nuclear weapon and the means of delivering it. >> right. the reason being, it would create a nuclear arms race. >> that's a correct statement. >> arab spring would not like to have a nuclear trump card. >> correct. >> and a terror organization being able to access nuclear materials, the totals would be greater, not less, wouldn't you think? >> probably so, and that's the nexus of a terrorist group and weapons of mass destruction -- >> when president obama said it's unacceptable for the iranians to achieve nuclear capability, do you agree with that? >> yes, sir, i do. >> the congress is about to sign a resolution saying containment of a nuclear iran is not a good national strategy, so we're going to be backing up the president, and i'm glad you

agree with that proposition, that we should not as a nation try to create a nuclear iran, we should try to prevent it. and as you say, sanctions work. i hope they do. i am not in the camp of believing all is lost. do you also believe that all options should remain on the table when it comes to stopping them from getting a nuclear capability? >> well, sir, that's a personal view. that's not the intelligence community's personal policy, but certainly i do. >> that's what the president said. i certainly agree with him. now, let's get back to iraq. has the security environment deted deteriorated in iraq? >> i think it has. we've done an assessment in the last eight months, and i believe

the view is while there are challenges and uncertainties, we believe that the next year or so, the iraqi government will continue. it appears that the sunnis at this point believe their best prospect for protecting their interests is to participate in the government. >> so do you believe that us with draudrawing all of our for from iraq has had no effect on it ra the iraqi security environment? >> i wouldn't say no effect. >> would you say limited effect? >> i would say there are capabilities they no longer have as a result of our actions. at the same time, as general burgess indicated in his statement, they've done reasonably well and they have a reasonably capable ct force. >> do you know why the vice president hashmi is sunni vice

president, why they tried to indict him not days before? >> i assume it would be because while we were doing all we could diplomatically, i don't know why the timing. >> is it generally viewed by the sunnis and the kurds that when iran left iraq, that was a boon to the influence? >> i don't -- >> have you talked to the sunnis and kurds? >> i have not. >> i would suggest they do. >> there is no doubt they're concerned. >> i would suggest you sit down with some sunnis and kurds and have a discussion about what they think is happening in iraq. afghanistan. the agreement is really the last card to be played, is that

correct? >> i don't know what you mean by last card. >> mr. chairman, if i could have 30 additional seconds here, i'll be quick. the bottom line is if we have an american military presence post 2014 at the request of the afghan government in people that would allow counter-terrorism capability, american air power, that would always give the edge to the afghan security forces and probably end the taliban militarily. do you agree with that concept? >> i do. i think that would be a very positive thing not only in afghanistan but regionally. >> and the best way to negotiate with the taliban saying you'll never take back this country militarily. you need to get back in a political system? >> at the minimum, that the taliban would not provide a reservoir or harbor or safe hafen for the likes of al-qaeda. >> thank you. >> senator udall.

>> mr. chairman, i again am going to yield to the colleague, senator hagen, to the subcommittee who has to be on the floor in a few minutes, so i yield to her. >> you got no competition left at the moment. senator hagen. >> thank you, senator chairman, and thank you, senator udall. i want to talk about iraq, but i also want to state how much i appreciate both of you being here today testifying, but in addition, your leadership and long-term security interests in our country. so thank you. director clapper, in your prepared testimony, you say al-qaeda and iraq, despite its nuclear capabilities, remain available for attacks and will start shooting, including diplomatic personnel. what is the intelligence's

opinion in the assessment of our forces? >> i would say that the assessment of the ct left there is a capable force. but also aqu is a capable and f formidable foe, so while the iraqis have some capability, there are certainly some things we are still looking at doing that we can withstand for some times. >> how about the iraqi forces? >> we have put that forward and work with our iraqi friends. >> let me ask about the weapons stockpiled. it was discovered he had large quantities of unconventional as

far as. are they secured? >> yes, they are. >> were these records produced by libya or wondering whether they had help producing. >> what about your assessment of what happened to all the stockpiles of conventional weapons, like artillery. >> the huge concerns are weapons a rarm. in fact, billy started this as the most to recover armpits.

from that program, they recovered about a quarter of them. there are some number of others that were, that we're in depots and other storage areas. depot are foam at this time. also, about recovery of this incidents the transitional government in libya is on schedule and is moving towards elections and reforming the government. their oil refinery capacity has recovered faster than we anticipated. they're up to, we estimate, about 100 billion barrels a day

and their previous level was about 106 million. so there are problems there but there is some room for optimism. >> how did you estimate 20,000 man pads and 5,000 recovered? >> the 5,000 recovered is by count, and that was the best intelligence assessment we had based on all sorts of analysis the number of man pads they had the demonstrations and the like started. >> in recent weeks we see attacks by nigeria. are some of these weapons getting into nigeria, especially the man pads you're suggesting? >> we do not have any direct face. some for real. according to press reports.

as part of the political ongoing process in nnemkadien. al-qaeda was a cause for concern, obviously, for many reasons, including the fact that it potentially creates a sanctuary for planning external operations. my question is, what's the intelligence community's assessment of aqup and haven't provided them? >> obviously, we're concerned about that, especially given it could be a haven for arms facilities. i think it's interesting, when a terrorist group like aqac. they have responsibilities in

fir foreign plotting. al-qae al-qaeda. i think those we're most concerned about when it comes to potential threats and the homeness. >> do you want to confront the qep and be with the government base. >> to this point, we've had a great mr. chairman, thank you, gentlemen. >> thank you very much, senator respect and admiration and i just have a few. and on page 28 part of your

prepared remarks. i want to specifically ask you about the red lines that secretary panetta identified with respect to block aids of the straits of hamas which i don't think it takes into organization by israel against iran because of their nuclear capability, that there would be retaliation. and part of that could we we could break that blockade, but i just want to ask you, when. when the world's oil supply talks to.

the geopolitical issues that we see in the milgd east. is there threat, abou -- yes, i, and the for the reason you cite. if the street were blocked, that would have a profound impact not only in the region, but the rest of the world will have greater sink. in fact, that's one thing we have month -- more sangss. but you're quite right, it's a very difficult balance here and clearly would have impacts on the price of oil and the world

economy. >> and a blockade of the straits of hormuz because of a blockade of the oil trade, would you see that has a negative impact on what igt it we're coming out of a very tough poch. a rather slow rate of growth and higher employment for the moment. i would like to get your impressions of the possibility of a blockade, what that would do in terms of the rate of expected growth in our economy here and related topics. >> well, sir, i would have to take that one under.

i'm not oon exist. and it would vary from country to country depending how dependent they are on oil that transits the strait. but i think the general answer is it's hard to see a good effect on -- for any number of reasons if a blockade were allowed to stand. >> we've been debating a payroll tax holiday that an estimate is it would provide an extra $20 a week for a person making $50,000 a year. but in 2011, the average family spent more than $4,000 in gasoline, so my concern is in terms of our economy, the geopolitical uncertainty we've been talking about and what impact that would have on families here in the united

states and what impact it would have to dampen, if not wipe out, our economic recovery. i know you know that's sort of the direction i was heading in. let me ask you, because i'm from texas. obviously, mexico so you are southern neighbor. senator mccain had some questions about mexico and obviously it's a matter of continual concern. the department of justice, in particular, the bureau of tobacco, alcohol and firearms had a time when practically 2,000 weapons were allowed to walk from gun dealers in the united states to the firearms. and i believe the last estimate i saw was roughly only about a quarter of those weapons have actually been recovered. and, of course, two of them were found at the scene of the death

of u.s. border patrol agent brian terry. could you shed any light, or do you have any opinion on what the impact of the transit of those firearms would have on the violence and the crime we might see as a result? >> well, sir, this is not an intelligence issue, and it's one aspect i don't have responsibility for. it's a very unfortunate incident. obviously, guns, whether in a case like this or by any other means, would find their way into the united states and mexico certainly don't help the situation. >> do you know, general burgess or general clapper, officials were not advised about this fast

and furious program. do you have anything you can tell us about their reaction to tell us about this reaction of the breakdown? >> no, i can't. it wasn't an issue conducted in the intelligence channels. >> thank you very much. thank you, mr. chairman. >> thank you, senator coryn. mr. udall. >> thank you. gentlemen, thanks for the credible breadth and depth of your work and the tour you have taken us on the hot spots of the world. i want to thank you for your service which included many, many years. let me turn to the comment secretary gates made at west point. he said, quote, i must tell you when it comes to predicting the nature and location of the next military engagements, since vietnam, our record has been perfect. we have never once gotten it

right from panama and balkans and heigaiti and more. we had no idea these missions would be so engaged. do you agree with secretary gates on this point? if so, what can we do and you do to address that failing? i guess i presupposed, director, you would agree with me. please feel free to disagree with me. >> i am a great fan of secretary gates. a good friend. we have known each other. i would say that, you know, as far as our obligation or our responsibility is to provide as much insight for decision makers and policymakers which we are not. what the implications are and

the threat situation is and what situation we were getting ourselves into for any military operation overseas. >> general burgess, do you care to comment? particularly any thoughts or changes or additional resources? >> no, sir. like director clapper, i would probably never publicly disagree with secretary gates. but having said that, i mean, it says we have discussed even last year in front of this committee having this same discussion as we looked at the arab spring as it was called then. i am one of those that think that the intelligence community did, in fact, paint the picture of the environment in the situation and things that were going on. did we make the tactical call in some cases? no, sir.

can we be faulted for that? sure. because there is intelligence failure and operational success, as we say. >> i think it is important to note that secretary gates said we have a perfect record, i'm paraphrasing when it comes to the next military engagements. he did not imply the intelligence did not give us some indications. let me piggy back on your comment on the arab spring. director, it is easy to ask. what has the intelligence community learned in the wake of the arab spring? >> we have learned and our focus on counterterrorism, where we were in many of these countries, engaged with local liaison services on that subject and maybe weren't paying as much attention to the backyard that

we were in at the time. so there is that lesson. certainly, you know, we put a lot of emphasis on the use of social media as an indicator. it is not a panacea. it is a great indicator of the general attitudes and tenor of a citizenry. that as well as how a host government may try to suppress that social media. that is somewhat of a new thing for us, which i think was brought home to us very clearly as a result of arab spring. >> general, do you have any to add to that? >> no, sir. >> i'm slightly hesitant to mention that, but it is in the general information. north korea citizens have more access, general clapper, to new

media technology. >> not much. there are certain elite that have access to that sort of thing. the general citizenry, unless it is smuggled in from the outside do not. of course, the north korean regime realizes that and knows what social media means in terms of freedom and the outside world and freedom of information. >> there is an opportunity there, but fraught with dangers for their citizens. let me turn to pakistan. we know it is a fractious environment. who determines the level of cooperation on counterterrorism and counter insurgency efforts? >> as you may know, sir, the pakistani government is in the throes of reexamining, perhaps a reset, if i can use that term, of what the relationship will be

with the united states. that's subject to the parliament and what they will take up. we will await the outcome of that. >> how do you assess current economic situation in pakistan? >> well, they have their challenges. it's a tough situation there for them. >> another question on pakistan. your assessment, general and director clapper on another military coup in pakistan in the next year to two years. is that a closed session? >> well, the history has been that never had an administration that saw the completion of its whole term. i am moderately optimistic that this one may succeed despite all its current challenges and the court proceeding that is going

on there now. i don't think it's the inclination of the current army leadership, specifically general cannai who is very sensitive to the independence of the military and not doing that. >> i see senator sheehan is here. let me ask one question. would you describe and i know you speak in plain english. i'll put it that way as well. of the magnitude of the cyber threat of the country? we were privy to briefings as you participated. >> we discussed this quite a bit, sir. both of us have spoken to it and in our written testimony. it is profound. in my oral remarks, i highlighted that counterterrorism and cyber and proliferation are three concerns that we highlighted in the oral

testimony. national counterintelligence issued a report on the impact of economic espionage which was put out in october, which called out both russia and china, particularly china because of the grand theft of intellectual property in this country. it is a profound threat. that is one reason why we're supportive of the leroy collins/rockefeller bill. >> you included it in the three central threats? >> i did. >> thank you again. thanks for your service. i appreciate your time this morning. >> thank you, senator udall. senator sheehan. >> thank you for being here. i hate to keep you past the noon hour, so i will try to be quick. last year in the midst of the libyan operation, senator

collins and i wrote to the administration expressing concerns that i know you share about libya's vast arsenal of unsecured man portable man systems. considering that these pose a continuing threat and they are an estimated 20,000 still out there, i will have the committee give us a report as part of the ndaa authorization. i just wanted to say i look forward to hearing from you about that subject because it is clearly going to continue to be a concern. >> it is a concern. you are quite right about the estimate that we had before the gadhafi demonstration