secured? >> yes, they are. >> worthies produced by libya or whether they had held in producing these weapons? >> we don't know and have not been able to determine that. >> what about your assessment of what happened of conventional weapons such as missiles and artillery? >> the principal area of concern of course are the so-called men passed their shoulder fired weapons, antiaircraft weapons. the estimate was going into the upheavals of about 20,000. in fact, libya had more than any non-producing country in the world. there has been an act as an aggressive program, won by the state department to recover man pads and through that program,

the estimate recovered about a quarter of them, about 5000. there is some number of others that were probably destroyed in the course of the air campaign that were indeed pose another storage place is. but the truth is that man pads and other weapons are distributed all over the place in homes and factories in schoolhouse is. so there is a concern obviously about recovery of these weapons. i have to say that the transitional government in libya is on schedule and is moving toward elections and reforming the government. their oil refinery capacity has recovered faster than we anticipated. we estimated 1 billion barrels a

day and their pre-ipo level about 1.6 million. so there are problems there, and that there is some room for optimism. >> how did you opt-in it by dousing recovered? >> well, five dozen recovered is by count and that was the best intelligence assessment that we had a son all sorts of analysis of man pads we have before the demonstrations started. >> in recent weeks, we've seen a spike in violent attacks by nigeria. are some of these weapons scanning into nigeria, especially when you discuss? >> we don't have intelligence of a direct relationship between weapons in libya if that's your question and nigeria, no. >> according to press reports, al qaeda and the arabian

peninsula as a result of the political crisis in yemen's capital continues to gain territory in the southern region of yemen. al qaeda and the arabian peninsula ari cosper can turn for many reasons, including the fact that it potentially creates a sanctuary for planning of external operations. my question is what the intelligence community's assessment of a few aps territorial gains in southern yemen and has that provided planning and training space for potential aqap extra call application? >> we're very concerned about that to the extent we provide a haven for training facilities. we are monitoring very carefully and also watching i think it's interesting when terrorist groups like al qaeda and aqap all of a sudden has municipal responsibilities than just how they deal with that, whether that would be a distraction to

their foreign plotting. i think aqap is one of the al qaeda franchises probably the organization we are most concerned about in terms of potential threats to europe for the homeland. >> what is your assessment of the many security service to confront aqap and retain the governments controlled this space? >> at this point we continue to have good cooperation with the yemeni intelligence and security organizations and hopefully that will be sustained if the government transitions. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you, gentlemen. >> senator hagan, senator chairman >> thank you for your service. you have our respect and admiration and i does have a few questions i want to ask you about the economy. director on page 28 you prepare

remarks to talk about the challenges to the global economy and also to energy. i want to specifically ask you about the guidelines for secretary pineda identified with regard to blockades of hormuz, which i don't think it takes a fertile imagination to see if there was some sort of action by israel against iran because they are concerned about their nuclear capability, that there would be retaliation. part of that could well be a blockade, which i'm confident we could break the blockade, but i just want to ask you when 20% of the worlds oil supply transits the straits, what is the impact on oil prices of the

geopolitical issues that we see in the middle east? in other words, does the threat of a possible action by israel against iran and possible retaliation which would include a blockade affect worldwide oil prices? >> yes, sir, it does. and for the reasons you cite, if the street were blocked, you know, that would have profound impact, you know, that would have profound impact, you know, that would have profound impact, but the rest of the road would have great impact obviously in the price of oil. and of course that is one thing we have to manage very carefully with the nda provisions on imposing more sanctions so that we don't end up in the worst of both worlds. but you are quite right. it is a very delicate balance here and clearly would have

impacts on the price of oil in the world economy. and they plot the to the streets were missed because of the blockade us oil trade. which you see that would have a negative impact not only in the global economy in terms of projections of growth? and what i'm getting at is obviously we're getting out of a very tough patch and projections by the budget office and the federal reserve are relatively slow rate of growth and higher unemployment here for the next several years. and i would just like to get your impressions of the possibility of a blockade, what i would do in terms of the rate of expect the growth of our economy here and related topics. >> well, fair, i would have to

take that 100 theismann. i'm not an economist and i want the experience, if there is a possibility for project team at the impacts with the globally on the economy and individually from country to country depending how dependent they are on oil that translates this straight. but i think the general answer is that it's hard to see a good effect for any number of reasons of a blockade were to stand. we have been deleting a payroll tax holiday that the estimates it would provide an extra $20 a week for a person making $60,000 a year, but in 2011, the average family spent more than $4000 in gasoline. so my concern is in terms of our economy the geopolitical uncertainty we've been talking about and one impact that would

have on families here in the united states and one ina would have to perhaps dampen if not wipe out our economic recovery. i know you know that it' i was . let me ask you because i am from texas, obviously mexico is the southern neighbor. senator mccain had questions about mexico and obviously it is a matter of continual can turn. the department of justice and more particularly the pure alcohol, tobacco and firearms had a program called fast and furious issue or where, whereby 2000 approximately weapons were allowed to walk from ben dealers in the united states by the bureau of alcohol, tobacco and firearms and i believe the last estimate i saw is roughly only about a quarter of those weapons have actually been recovered and of course one of them -- two of

them were found at the scene of the death of the u.s. border patrol agent, brian terry. could you shed any light or do you have any opinion on what the impact of the transit of those firearms would have, cartels and the violent endocrine that we might see as a result? >> well commissary. that is not an intelligence issue and fortunate it is one aspect i don't have responsibility for. it is a very fortunate incident. obviously, it gone, whether in a case like this or by any other means they find their way from the united states into mexico, certainly do not help the situation. >> do you know, either general burgess or mr. clapper whether mexico -- i'm advised they were not advised by the department of

justice and bureau of tobacco firearms about this vast and various program, do you have any -- anything you can tell us about their reaction to this diplomatic rate down? >> no, i cannot commissary. again i was not an intelligence channel so i don't know anything about it. >> thank you. >> senator udall. >> thank you, mr. chairman. good morning to you and thank you for the credible threat and depth of your work and maturity have taken us on touching on many of the hotspot in the world. as what to thank you for your service, which included many, many years. let me turn to a comment that secretary gates made at west point. he said i must tell you when it comes to predict human nature and location of the next military engagement since vietnam our record has been perfect. we have never went that way from

grenade panama, somalia to balkans, and more we had no idea that we would be so engaged. do you agree secretary gates on do you agree secretary gates on this? and if so, what can we do and what can you do to address that feeling? >> well, if you disagree, please feel free. >> i am a great fan of secretary gates. we are good friends have known each other, so i do not disagree with him. i would say that as far as our obligation, i responsibility is to provide as much insight or decision makers and policymakers, which we are not

end with the implications are, what the threat situation is, what situation we get ourselves into for any military operation overseas. >> general burgess, do you care to comment? anacostia changes, additional resources? >> i would probably not very publicly disagree with secretary gates. but having said that, as we have discussed, even last year and front of this committee having the same discussion as we looked at the air of spring as it was called then, i am one of those that think that the intelligence community did in fact paint the picture of the environment and the situation in things going on. did we make the type to go call

in some cases? can we be faulted for that? because there is intelligence failure and operational success as we say. >> it is important that secretary gates have appropriate record when it comes to predicting the nature and location of military engagements he didn't imply that our intelligence didn't give us some indication that we were prepared with some understanding of those cultures of society. let me piggyback on your comments about the arab spring. i'd be interested to see, what do intelligence community in the wake of the arab spring? >> we have learned in our focus where we weren't contras engaged in liaison services are not subject that we were obtained to

the backyard we were and at the time. so there is that less then. assertively we put a lot of emphasis on the use of social media as an indicator. it is not panacea. it is not the cure-all and it's certainly a great indicator of the attitudes and tenor of citizenry. that as well as how idaho scudder at me try to suppress the social media. so that is somewhat a new thing for us, which i think was brought home to us very clearly as a result of arab spring. >> general do you have anything quite >> north korea's citizens now have more access to new media

technology. >> there are certain elite that have access to that sort of thing, the general citizenry unless it is smuggled out from the outside do not. and of course the north regime realizes that and what social media and means in terms of freedom and the outside world and freedom of information. >> house so -- let me turn to pakistan. we know that the fractious environment they are, it is a regime divided. who determines there the level of cooperation in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. >> as you may know, the pakistani government is in the throes every examining reset if

i can use that term about the relationship reset if i can use that term about the relationship reset if i can use that term about the relationship put the united states. that is subject to their parliament is going to take a. so we will wait. so i can't access the current economic situation in pakistan? >> well, they have their challenges. it is a tough situation there for them. >> another question on pakistan. your assessment on the likelihood of another military coup in pakistan over the next year to two years but have never had an administration that the completion of a full term. i am optimistic despite all its despite all its despite all its

despite all its and i doubt think the inclination of the current army leadership, specifically general kayani who i think is very sensitive to the military and not do not. let me ask one last question. what you describe -- i know you speak in planning bush but i'll put it that way as well of the magnitude of the cyberthreat in the country. we were privy to somerthreat in the country. we were privy to some important briefing says he will participate in these last few weeks. >> we discussed this quite a bit and both of us had spoken to it in her written testimony and it's quite profound. in my aura remarks i highlighted the fact that counter terrorism, proliferation and saver are three major concerns i

highlighted in the oral testimony. national counterintelligence executive, part of my staff issued a report on the impact of economic espionage in the country, which was put out in october, which called out both russia and china, particularly china because the grand theft of intellectual property in this country is quite a profound threat in one why we are supportive of the rockefeller feinstein. >> you included in your three central threats that we really thankful. >> thank you again. thank you for your service and spending all morning with us. appreciate it. >> thank you, senator udall. >> thank you on mr. chairman and director capital and burgess for being here. i hate to keep you past the noon hour, so i won't try and be

quite. plaster in the midst of the libyan operation, senator collins and i urge the administration our concerns that i know you share about libya's arsenal of unsecured man portable air defense systems and considering the continuing threat for estimated 20,000 so that they. i will not ask you to speak to that because we asked the intelligence committee give us a report as part of the nda authorization. i just want to say look forward to hearing from you about that subject because it will clearly continue to be a concern. >> it is a concern then you are quite right about the estimate that we have before. the anti-gadhafi demonstration of about 20,000 in libya.

the state department is managing an aggressive program to recover man tied into this line about 25% of them about 5000. very many others that we are certain, although we can't count them all, but we are certain were destroyed by virtue of the fact they were mod post bunkers during the either contest between the opposition of the regime or the nato airstrikes. that said, there is a large number of better i'm located and will be very problematic in recovering since they have them all over the place. libya was a wash and weaponry. so we'll continue with the program to do what we can twitter account for the ones destroyed or damaged her and demonstrations and calendars and as well i would guess with

recovery programs that state department. >> how often are we seeing this come up with the militias as they continue conflict there? >> well, many of the libyan militias have not folded under a central government yet and many of them are keeping weapons for one reason or another. so that too is another agenda or another issue we are trying to watch. >> i want to pick up on senator udall's questioning about watch. >> i want to pick up on senator udall's questioning about pakistan, which i believe continued to be one of the most dangerous parts of the world and especially get that the continued back on forth in our

relationship with pakistan. can you talk about the current vulnerabilities are at their nuclear program and potential to lead to proliferation of technology your material? >> you'll be pleased to discuss that in closed session. >> i thought that which unites day. but can you talk about how competent you are that the pakistani nuclear program has appropriate safeguards and protections? >> i am reasonably confident they do. the mac and kevin, are we also feeling like the next level of military leadership down from general kai ani also shares the same commitment to safeguarding our son all the way as seen from

the top leadership in the military? >> i believe they do. >> thank you. obviously the relations with india plays a role in their defense plans and operations. there has been some small goodness in terms of attentional for that relationship in the last year or so. can you talk about how you assess the potential for improved ties between the two countries and how that might affect stability in that region? >> well, from the pakistan standpoint, and a few india as an existential threat. but i still egyptair offending. gene breaks here and my eight -- in the context of dialogue between the two countries. and i know from having traveled

and dialogue with certainly the indians had very interested in well, but their long-standing fundamental issues there that i will be hard to overcome. obviously if they dared reach some agreement, it would be huge. there are lots of countervailing fact is i think that it can are best left for discussion that will make that difficult. >> we were there last summer i was there as chairman by then and this issue came up in the political leadership was quick to reassure us that are taking measures. bizarre assessment there is a commitment at the top levels in both india and pakistan to try and address this long-standing conflict has existed came the

two countries? >> i think it is a fair assessment. i think that the i think that the top levels they would both the advantages comaneci advantages. >> general burgess, for nearly two decades, suffering for us is a major priority and military modernization has been some thing that we have seen from china. to what extent do those ongoing modernization effort and focus on expanding its submarine orders raise concerns for our navy and our ability to respond to that chinese built up? >> i think across the board to chinese are making modernization

improvements whether it be in the air force and the navy and other aspects of what they are doing. they're taking a very holistic approach. submarines are a part of that. when defense and intelligence along with the navy and others are watching that very carefully and they continue to watch their developments. >> thank you. direct to, i went go back to russia. i chair the european affairs subcommittee on the foreign relations committee and we've been watching very closely what is happening in russia right now, the protests, reaction to putin's announcement that he would switch from being prime minister -- to be president again. and you talk in your january testimony about return to the presidency is resulting in more

continuity than change. can you talk about how we view first of all the impact of demonstration on russia at what a change that might affect as we look at the changeover imprudence role there? >> well, i find this evolution very interesting. and again, this is another manifestation of the impact of social russian ali are finding those challenges and putting my free information flow via social media genie back in the bottle. and i often wonder whether mr. putin will be the day he decided to come back. he might've been better served while he was ahead. i think he comes from kind of the old school and i don't think

the old order is going to work and russia. and i think when the thousands of people willing to turn out in a bitter, bitter moscow coal in january february is a great testament is going on russia. >> thank you very much. scenic thank you center shaheen. have a few questions at the underground two. first, in response to a question about how long an israeli attack on iran would postpone by reinstating a bomb, secretary of defense command said that it