specifically targeting some military and business communities to try to move them toward change. this is a very important part of getting to that tipping point is getting more and more people on the side of change. >> today's -- i can't remember whether it was "the post" or "the times," a photograph of the kuwaiti parliament having a vigorous debate, all condemning the violence. there seems to be a somewhat surprising, unique if you will, movement in the gcc and among a number of arab countries who are taking unprecedented -- the arab league taking unprecedented steps here. can you speak to that and what the potential is within the arab world itself here. what the reactions may be and, therefore, what potential there is for that to have an impact on the outcome. >> i think the arab leadership

on the issue of syria has been remarkable. as i said in my opening statement, we're backing the arab league's own transition plan. syria sees itself as a major country in the arab league. the syrians call themselves the beating heart of the arab world. and suddenly the arab league has essentially suspended syria's membership in the arab league. this is not a north african country like libya that's a little out of the arab mainstream. it's significant what the arabs are doing. now, why is this happening? i think in part this is happening because of the arab spring. if you look at opinion poll after opinion ol, bashar al assad is at the bottom of the list in popularity among arab leaders. he has no credibility among the arab world. i think the arab leaders want to show that they get it, they understand, they need to be in tune with arab popular opinion.

without question, part of this has to do with the competition with arab. people know that assad has made syria a proxy for iran, a subservient partner to iran. part of this is gcc competition with iran. i wouldn't underestimate the impact of the arab spring even on those arab countries that aren't going through transition. i believe arab leaders recognize that they can't be on the complete opposite side of their public opinion, the kuwaitis, for example, would have seen this debate in the kuwaiti parliament yesterday. >> mr. secretary, based particularly on your experience with lebanon and the region, share with us your perceptions of the risks of the ethno sectarian violence that could flow if there's a total explosion or implosion, however you want to phrase it. >> without question, the minorities in syria look at lebanon or more recently iraq,

and they look at that with fear. and i think we all understand their fear. i defer to ambassador ford to talk about the calculations inside syria. i think we all understand that fear. part of our challenge and particularly the challenge of the syrian opposition is to disprove bashar al assad's theory. it's his theory that says look at lebanon, look at iraq, that's where we're headed if you don't back me. there's a real responsible on the part of the syrian national council, the broader opposition groups to show by word and by deed that that's, in fact, not the -- where they have to go. >> what are the dynamics, if you would, between the syrian national council and free syrian army and the interior local groups, mr. ambassador? >> mr. chairman, a couple of things i'd say on that. the two organizations are separate. there is not a hierarchy between

them. the syrian national council has its own executive body and a broader general assembly. the free syrian army, as best we understand, has its own leadership hierarchy. they are not organically linked. however, they certainly do talk to each other, and on the ground in syria local revolution councils are being set up now. if you watch, for example, aljazeera television you'll often see the spokesman for the revolution council in homs talking about the atrocities going on there. it's a young man named abu salah who will literally go through the streets. it was he who broke the news about mary colvin's death, for example. people like abu saleh talk to the syrian army but is not syrian army. you mentioned in your statement

as did senator lugar about the differences in the syrian organizations. there are differences. it makes it more complex. they talk to each other, sometimes they cord nate, but they are not organically linked? >> senator lugar? >> thank you, mr. chairman. i want to take up a point that you made about the oil exports and the success apparently in bottling up a high percentage of the income of the government. likewise, other sanctions against the country have caused what seemed to be in normal terms an economic depression in the country by most standards. this is likely to grow further. what isn't clear to me and i'd like some thoughts if you have them, about what food supplies are available to the people of

the country, how much is produced in syria. we understand a drought has occurred this year, was a critical factor clearly in egypt, even while things were going on in tahrir square, people were not eating very well and the food subsidies had ceased. that was a cause of considerable unrest. but even if there were these problems in the business community or with the moneys for the assad regime, it would appear still at least from press accounts to the outside observer that the allawi group sometimes estimated at 10% or 11% of the population as opposed to the 65% that are sunnis, is a group that is the allawis who have an existential problem here. not all may be in favor of assad, but there is i think jennifer that their fate is

likely to be very, very grim. as a matter of fact, there is not likely to be, as you called for protection of minority rights, this may be down the trail years in the future, but i was interested in your prediction of more of an accelerated turnover of the regime than most are predicting. most press accounts that i have seen from various scholars indicate that the assad regime might continue really for years of time, not for months and that the lack of cohesion of the opposition could even grow greater rather than smaller as various other forces enter the syrian picture and sort of pluck off segments that may be helpful to their situations. can you comment generally on the critical problems of the present, the economic

depression, maybe food shortages that are dire on the one hand that lead to general unrest by lack of cohesion on the part of the opposition. but on the other, can we reasonably anticipate in any period of the next three to five years, say, that there could conceivably be a transition to something even with vestiges of democracy, human rights, respect for minorities, the general prediction that i see is that assad might go but the chaos that would ensue would be horrible with regard to the killing of people and the general mallay. and it's not a question of choosing sides but the -- >> senator lugar, the dangers you point out are real. the opposition leadership recognizes those dangers. it's one of the reasons i said

our policy is to try to accelerate the arrival of that tipping point. i don't know when the tipping point is going to come, and wouldn't even venture a guess. i hope i didn't make it sound as if it was coming tomorrow. i wish it were. we don't have any magic bullets to make it come tomorrow. the larger this goes on, the deeper the sectarian divisions, the higher the risk of long-term secretary conflict, the higher the risk of extremism. we want to see this happen earlier t. risks you point out are recognized by the opposition. despite all the division, the leadership do seem to have a common goal. they do seem to have a common understanding of the importance of the fabric of syrian society, the importance of preserving that fabric. i was in tunis with secretary clinton and listened to a very inspiring address by the head of the syrian national council. he appealed directly to the

christians, appeared directly to the ala whites as well. it won't get the quote exactly right. he said something like many of you have left over the years, many of you have felt the need to leave over the years. when you leave, part of syria dies, and we want a syria where you can all come home. again, not an exact quote. i'm trying to convey the sentiment of that. i think there is something to work with with the opposition leadership which is an understanding that what's special about syrup yeah is that rich, mosaic of communities, religions, ethnicity and people want to preserve that. the ala whites are scared. you're absolutely right. ambassador ford would know more about that than i do. on the economic side of things, the syrian business community as i understand it, it's -- there are 11 teen traders, worked for decades if not sentries on

commerce across the middle east, connections to europe and beyond. this is one of those communities that needs to understand in our view that its feature is better assured under a different type of system than is there now. one of the things that came out of the tunis meeting was a discussion, a commitment by the friends of syria to set up a working group to talk about reconstruction in syria afterwards in ways that the business community could see. we're talking prakt cli about the trade relations, financial connections that syria can have after assad in a better system. right now the sanctions imposed by tour key, the arab world, by the united states, have cutouts for humanitarian supplies and food and medicine. food prices are rising without question. with 30% of the population of syria under the poverty line before this started, without question there must be hardship

for people inside syria because of the sanctions. we are doing cutouts for food and medicine, we are making sure we have supplies pre positioned in syria and nearby to reach vulnerable pop lagsz lsz. part of the assistance that the secretary announced in tunis on february 24th was to make sure we had the money to pay for known partners who are used to dealing in conflict situations to be able to get humanitarian supplies into vulnerable populations. >> thank you very much. you have a comment, ambassador, on that? >> i might, senator, let me address three issues real quick. first, the economic situation that you asked about, and i'd like to make two points on the political side. first, with respect to the economy, it is in a sharp downward spiral, very sharp downward spiral. the exchange rate, for example, has depress ated only 50% in less than a year, really in a

space of about seven months. that has driven prices on the local markets, for example, in damascus where we monitored prices, food prices went up something like 30% between december and the beginning of february. it was a very sharp rise. what that is doing in syria is literally consumers are contracting their purchases. so that's just aggravating the spiral that's going down. it's one of the reasons the business community is so upset. in that sense the sanctions that we have imposed have had a real impact. we have tried as best we can, senator, to target our sanctions so that they don't hurt the syrian people. we have targeted government revenues, for example, in order to make it harder for the government to pay for its repression, to pay for its military and security forces. but we have never tried to block

supplies of, for example, heating oil or cooking gas that would go in to syria. but there are terrible shortages of these things. when i was there, especially when i went back after being in the united states last autumn and went back in december, the stories i heard from people, the biggest problem that they complained about in damascus, aside from the fear of the repression and being arrested, but the next thing out of their mouths was there's no cooking gas, there's no heating oil. damascus is surprisingly cold in the winter. it snows. so the economy is hurting. the food supplies are available as ambassador feldman said, but people are reducing their consumption in general because of prices. with respect to the political side of this, senator, two points must be made. first, the assad regime in its darkest moments will try to paint this as a fight against

sunni-arab islamist extremists. they are trying to frighten minority communities, especially when these minority communities looked at what happened in lebanon and iraq. they're very afraid. i think it is important for americans to understand that this is not about allawis verses a sunni-arab majority. lots and lots of allawis suffered just as much oppression, jut as much brutality as do their neighbors down the road in sunni-arab neighborhoods. it's important, for example, one of the leading activists on the ground inside syria right now, she's in hiding, moving from place to place and will pop up at demonstrations, she is a young woman, allawi movie actress, very well known. she's very brave. the government has tried to arrest her many times. she circulates around. she's an allawi.

people know that. this is not allawi verses sunnis. is about a family that happens to be allawi that has dominated the country and stripped it for 40 years. saleh whiches are suffering, too. we have constantly urged in our discussions with the syrian opposition in the country and outside the country to underline to the allawi communities and all of the communities in syria, whether they be christians or business people, drews, kurds, it's a very complex social makeup that all people in syria would be treated equally, that all people's basic human rights would be respected, and that it would be a syria where all different communities would be able to live in harmony. we underline that message every time we meet the opposition. the opposition, as you've noted, is divided. i think it's probably a reach to think they're going to unify any

time soon into one single organization. i don't think that's going to happen. my question is a little different. can they unite around a vision? i described ambassador feldman described our vision, our suggestions, can they unite around a vision? and can they unite around a transition plan? they don't all have to unite into one single party, but they do need to share a vision, and they do need to share an agreement on the way forward. that is also what we're counseling. we're not writing their transition plan. that's not our role. they need to do it, syrians need to do it. but they do need to come together behind a plan. >> thank you very much. hopefully we have a lot of senators and i want everybody to have a chance to get questions. we need to try to hang on on the time. senator menendez. >> thank you, mr. chairman. mr. secretary, can you talk to us about what measures are being

taken to encourage the russians and chinese to remove their objection to action in the security council? and in that regard, as you answer that, are you, the state, that is, consulting with treasury on the possibility of designating and imposing sanctions under executive order 13572 on russian and chinese entities selling weapons to assad? there's a lot of media reports stating that russian state arms dealers are continuing to supply the assad regime with arms, at least four cargo ships have left a russian port for the syrian port of tarter since december of this past year carrying ammunition, sniper rifles and a host of other armaments. can you give us a sense, both what's happening at the security council to move them from their

present intransigence towards security council action, and are we considering in the face of this weapon flow, actions under the executive order? >> senator, thank you for the question. you put your finger on a key element of anyway forward in syria which is what is the role of russia. i have to admit from the outset i'm not a russia expert. i defer to those in the european bureau to talk about motives and things. i want to assure you that sort of the contact with russia at all levels is continuing. russia has had interest and influence in syria for a long time. it seems to us that russia is not going to preserve those interests that russia deems to be important if it basically rides the assad maloof titanic

all the way to the bottom of the mediterranean, that this is not a very wise move for the russians to preserve their interests. i went out with a with a collea couple of weeks ago at the request of the secretary to have a deep discussion with the russians about how we see the way forward in syria, how we see the inevitable demise of assad, and i felt that there was a lot of discomfort in russia about where they are. that -- their analysis isn't all that different from ours, about how unsustainable the situation is for bashar al assad inside syria, but so far we've been disappointed. use stronger language, about russia's action. even today, for example, when the human rights council in geneva passed a resolution condemning what's happening in syria, the vote was 39-3. who were those three? china, russia and cuba who voted

against simply on human rights grounds. we think it's time for the security council to act. we think it's past time for the security council to act. this is the type of situation in syria that deserves security council action. so we're still in discussion with the russians in an attempt to persuade them that they could be part of a solution. they could use their influence inside syria to be part of the solution r ran than continue to block. the question of arms is deeply disturbing. why are the russian whose condemn foreign interference with syria be the ones along with others to shipping arms into russia? we should have a discussion with colleagues from other agencies in a different setting. >> i'm happy to have that. i just want the administration to be thinking about, if we can't get -- our russian and

chinese counterparts to understand. they seem to be doubling down. at least russia seems to be doubling down pup say they seem to be concerned or come to the same analysis that the final result will be that assad would not stand, but, however, their flow of armament almost seems to be doubling down as well as during transigent security council. if that's to have meaning it needs to be enforced. i hope at a minimum we would do that. stopping a flow of armaments to assad is extremely important. one other question. what is the possibility of this situation devolving into a civil war. if so, what kearns do the have for the political and economic implications of a syrian civil war on syria's neighbors, speck been on lebanon and georgia which will receive thousands of syrian refugees?

>> always a spillover in neighbors countries as syrians fleeing violence go to neighboring countries to look for refuge. families in lebanon, jordan, turkey, iraq, that have taken in syrian friends and relatives. already an impact. in lebanon, people killed across the border by syrian forces firing across the border. violations of sovereignty by crossing the border. already a spillover effect which is deplorable. we salute the families and countries hosting families outside the syrian borders and we're trying to provide assistance to those host families and governments. bashar -- ambassador ford said, bashar wants the people, the world to believe if not for him there's going to be a civil war. part of this is, you know, t the -- bash ar al assad propaganda machine to frighten

people into believing they have no alternative but to stick with him. or they end up in civil war. part of what the region, trying to do, the region is trying to do, international community, try to help avoid that path leading to a civil war. all agree it is a risk. ambassador ford said for articulately it's not a question of alawites versus sunnis, it's a question of the assad mafia basically hijacked the entire state of syria for four decades in order to enrich itself and protect itself against the syrian people. that's what's happening right now. >> thank you. >> senator ritsch? >> thank you, senator casey. ambassador ford, first of all, thank you for your service, and i applaud your statement of what our policy is and your conveying

that to the opposition and what they need to do and how they think about this. having said that, and looking what's happening on the ground over there, your statement about it being a complex society i think is an understatement, but i understand. i mean, you know, you have the drus and kurds and sunnis and alawite it's and about a dozen even smaller groups. the difficulty i have is, how -- i understand what you're telling them they need to do, where everybody's welcome, everybody's going to be equal and what have you. they don't have much of a history of that, and our culture is -- our cull cherry has trouble thinking along those lines because they are so segregated. they're not like we are, we amalgamate into one society. they are very, very segregated. they marry within their groups, stay within their groups.

socialize, do business within their groups. saying that, well, when assad goes, and i believe he will go, they're all going to get together and do this and particularly looking at their organization right now, i'm pretty pessimistic about that. so i hear what you're saying, and i think it's a good position to take, but from a purely pragmatic standpoint, could you maybe analyze your own analysis of it from that standpoint? >> senator ritsch, it is a very fair question. it is a very fair question. it is a sad truth that not only in syria but in many countries in that region, there is no history of rule of law and respect for human rights. i mean, that's just the historical reality. what i would say is just a couple of things on this -- one of the things that i have learned from the arab spring, which is really unprecedented in

my 30 years working in the region going back to when i was a peace corps volunteer in morocco in 1980, what we've seen in the last year is unprecedented. one of the things i've learned, there is a new generation coming up, and this generation is very plupged into the internet and it's very plugged into satellite television. they know much more about how to upload different kinds of videos -- i mean, i'd never watched youtube until i went out as ambassador to syria. now i watch it every day. >> don't want to know what you watch. >> we won't go there, senator, but what i would say is, there is no history, but the people there that are leading the protest to movement, they have a vision -- they have a vision -- and i heard this very strongly when i went to huma and heard this strongly when i visited some of the suburbs around

damascus and when i went to jasfa. i heard it strongly. they want a country where people are treated with dignity, everybody, treated with dignity. that's the key word, senator. dignity. and they have a vision of a country ruled by law. my own experience, having served in iraq for 4 1/2 years is this is a very hard thing to do. and it takes time. saw the same thing in algeria as well when i served there. but there is -- there is change coming, and values and norms are changing, because they are more plugged into the planet than they used to be, and syrians are actually surprisingly plugged in to the mediterranean, for example. that was one of the things i learned when i went out there. >> that's an interesting observation, and i -- the question i would have is, does that spill overto their cultural

hard wiring they have if you would? obviously raised by parents in a society that -- that protected them from the other minorities or other sects in the country. is that breaking down at all? do you see that at all? are they intermarrying? i guess that would be probably the most telltale sign of that. >> in damascus there are many mixed marriages. many, many. and in other parts of the country as well. in fact, one of the things, if we had syrians sitting at this table instead of me, they would say to you, senator, but we've always lived together peacefully, and we've never had these problems. we're not like iraq. we're different. i think one of the things that the political opposition needs to do, and we told them this repeatedly is, they need to address the fears directly. and not simply fall back on the argument that syrians