initiative and the u.n. general assembly resolution. and just this morning, the u.n. human rights council in geneva overwhelmingly passed a strong resolution, which is the council's fourth, essentially describing the situation in syria as man made humanitarian disaster. and we all know the identity of the man responsible for that disaster. these are just some of the examples of regional and international resolve. but nevertheless, as both of you have described, we have also seen the assad regime has intensified its vicious attacks against the syrian people. the situation is, frankly, including indiscriminate artillery fire against entire neighborhoods. and today's reports from homs are truly alarming. large numbers of syrians are living every day under siege, deprived of basic necessities including food, clean water and medical supplies. women and children are wounded

and dying for lack of treatment. innocent people are detained and tortured and their families left to fear the worst. yet despite the regime's brutality, the people of syria demonstrate enormous courage. their determination to continue protesting for their rights, mostly still peaceful protests, is an inspiration and a testimony to the human spirit. now, as assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs watching the upheavals in the arab world, i'm humble enough to say that we don't know for sure when the tipping point, the breaking point will come in syria. but it will come. the demise of the assad regime is inevitable. it's important that the tipping point for the regime be reached quickly because the longer the regime assaults the syrian people, the greater the chances of all-out war in a failed state.

all of the elements of u.s. policy towards syria are channelled toward accelerating the arrival of that tipping point. as i refer to at the start through the friends of the syrian people group, we are translating international consensus into action. we are galvanizing international partners to implement more effective sanctions and to deepen the regime's isolation. we're supporting the arab leagues, and now the un general assembly's call for an immediate transition in syria, moving ahead with humanitarian assistance for the syrian people demanding that attacks cease and access be granted, and we're engaging with the syrian opposition on their vision for syria's future, a proud and democratic syria that upholds the rights and responsibilities of all of its citizens regardless of their religion, their gender, or their ethnicity. now, together we're working to persuade frightened communities

inside syria that their interests are best served by helping to build that better syria, not by casting their lot with a losing regime, a corrupt and abusive regime which has been a malignant blight in the middle east for far too long. the goal of the opposition and the friends of the syrian people alike is as follows. a syrian-led political transition to democratic government based on the rule of law and the will of the people with protection of minority rights. i would like to close my opening statement by echoing this committee's praise of my fellow witness and friend, ambassador robert ford. ambassador ford's courageous actions on the ground in syria these past months have been a great credit to him, to the foreign service and to the united states. he repeatedly put himself in harm's way to make it clear that the united states stands with the people of syria and their dream of a better future.

i want to thank this committee for its leadership in supporting his confirmation. >> thank you very much, mr. secretary. we appreciate that again. ambassador ford, maybe you shouldn't say anything, just stop. >> senator, mr. chairman and ranking member lugar, senators casey, cardin, corker, thank you very much for this invitation to come and speak to the committee about syria today. i don't want to do a long opening statement because i'm hoping we can open discussion like to say how much i appreciate this committee's support during my time in damascus. several times we got messages from members of the committee's staff asking how we were doing, how my team was doing. i would just like to say that the team really appreciated those messages, especially during some of the tenser

moments. it meant a great deal. i had a terrific team in damascus, and i really would like just to thank this committee for your support for our efforts. beyond that, i think the statement that ambassador feltman made is quite good, and i'll stop there. thank you. >> well, thank you very much, mr. ambassador. that does give us an opportunity to get a good dialogue. we certainly appreciate it. let me begin by asking both of you if you would share with us your perceptions of the state of the assad regime itself right now. are there any fissures? there have been some defections, not at the highest level. there have been some excuses we understand of various military figures, maybe others, as a

deterrent to any plots or defection. what is your judgment about the current fragility, if it is indeed that at all, of an alawite family enterprise that has a lot to lose, obviously? >> a couple of things i would say on that, senator. first, the assad regime is under greater stress now i think than it was even two or three months ago. this is in part because the military is more challenged. there have been a steady stream of desertions. the military has so far retained its cohesion. the security services have retained their cohesion, but they're under significantly more stress now. the first quarter of 2012, than they were, say, even as recently as three or four months ago. within the ruling circle, if i may call it that, i think there

is greater concern. they are aware that the business community, for example, is very unhappy. they have changed several times on a dime some of their economic policies to try to placate an increasingly unhappy business community which is suffering because of the sanctions that we have imposed, that europe and now arab countries have imposed. they are i think also concerned about their support on the street. so, in general, i think they understand that this is the biggest challenge during the 40 years of the assad maalouf's family domination of syria. >> mr. secretary, do you want to add anything? you don't have to. don't feel compelled. >> just to refer back to that tipping point, the breaking point that i talked about in my opening statement. part of the regional and

international community's calculation is to appeal to, as you talked about, senator, those people who haven't yet made up their minds to side with change but who don't like the way that assad -- don't like the direction assad is taking them. so a lot of what you see -- a lot of what you see coming out of meetings like in tunis are ways to appeal to the broader syrian population as well as specifically targeting some military and business communities to try to move them toward change. this is a very important part of getting to that tipping point is getting more and more people on the side of change. >> today's -- i can't remember whether it was the "post" or the "times," a photograph of the kuwaiti parliament having a vigorous debate, all condemning the violence.

there seems to be a somewhat surprising, unique if you will, movement in the gcc and among a number of arab countries who are really taking unprecedented -- the arab league, really taking unprecedented steps here. can you speak to that and what actions may be and what the potential is for that to have an impact on the outcome? >> i think the arab leadership on the issue of syria has been remarkable. as i said in my opening statement, we're backing the arab league's own transition plan. syria sees itself as a major country in the arab league. the syrians call themselves the beating heart of the arab world. and suddenly the arab league has essentially suspended syria's membership in the arab league. this is not a north african country like libya that's a little out of the arab mainstream.

it's significant what the arabs are doing. now, why is this happening? i think in part this is happening because of the arab spring. if you look at opinion poll after opinion poll, bashar al assad is at the bottom of the list of popularity among arab leaders. he has no credibility among the arab world. i think the arab leaders want to show their own populations that they get it, that they understand, that they need to be in tune with arab popular opinion. without question, part of this has to do with the competition with iran. people know that bashar al assad has made syria a proxy for iran, a subservient partner to iran. part of this is gcc competition with iran. i wouldn't underestimate the impact of the arab spring even on those arab countries that aren't going through transition. i believe arab leaders recognize that they can't be on the complete opposite side of their public opinion, the kuwaitis,

for example, would have seen this debate in the kuwaiti parliament yesterday. >> mr. secretary, based particularly on your experience with lebanon and the region, share with us your perceptions of the risks of the ethnosectarian violence that could flow if there's a total explosion or implosion, however you want to phrase it. >> without question, the minorities in syria look at lebanon or more recently iraq, and they look at that with fear. and i think we all understand their fear. i defer to ambassador ford to talk about the calculations inside syria. i think we all understand that fear. part of our challenge and particularly the challenge of the syrian opposition is to disprove bashar al assad's theory. it's his theory that says look at lebanon, look at iraq, that's where we're headed if you don't back me. there's a real responsible on the part of the syrian national council, the broader opposition

groups to show by word and by deed that that's, in fact, not where they have to go. >> what are the dynamics, if you would, between the syrian national council and free syrian army and the internal local groups, mr. ambassador? >> mr. chairman, a couple of things i'd say on that. the two organizations are separate. there is not a hierarchy between them. the syrian national council has its own executive body and a broader general assembly. the free syrian army, as best we understand, has its own leadership hierarchy. they are not organically linked. however, they certainly do talk to each other, and on the ground in syria local revolution councils are being set up now. if you watch, for example, al jazeera television, you'll

often see the spokesman for the revolution council in homs talking about the atrocities going on there. it's a young man, a very brave man named abu salah who will literally go through the streets. it was he who broke the news about mary colvin's death, for example. people like abu salah talk to the free syrian army, but he is not free syrian army. so you mentioned in your statement, as did senator lugar about the divisions within the syrian opposition. and there are different organizations. it makes it a little more complex. so they talk to each coordinate they're not organically linked. >> senator lugar? >> thank you, mr. chairman. i just want the take up point that you made, secretary feltman, about the oil exports and the success apparently in

bottling up a high percentage of the income of the government. likewise, other sanctions against the country have caused what seemed to be in normal terms an economic depression in the country by most standards. this is likely to grow further. what isn't clear to me and i'd like some thoughts if you have about what food supplies are available to the people of the country, how much is produced in syria now. we understand a drought has occurred this year. this was a critical factor clearly in egypt, even while things were going on in tahrir square. people were not eating very well and the food subsidies had ceased. that caused considerable unrest. but even if there were these problems in the business community or with the moneys for the assad regime, it would

appear still at least from press accounts to the outside observer that the alawi group sometimes estimated at 10% or 11% of the population as opposed to the 65% who are sunnis is a group that is the alawis who have an existential problem here. not all may be in favor of assad, but there is i think general fear that their fate is likely to be very, very grim. as a matter of fact, there is not likely to be, as you called for the protection of minority rights. this may be down the trail years in the future, but i was interested in your prediction of more of an accelerated turnover of the regime than most are predicting. most press accounts that i have

seen from various scholars indicate that the assad regime might continue really for years of time, not for months and that the lack of cohesion of the opposition could even grow greater rather than smaller as various other forces enter the syrian picture and sort of pluck off segments that may be helpful to their situations. can you comment generally on the critical problems of the present, the economic depression, maybe food shortages that are dire on the one hand that lead to general unrest by department of cohesion on the part of the opposition. but on the other, can we reasonably anticipate in any period of the next three to five years, say, that there could conceivably be a transition to something even with vestiges of democracy, human rights, respect for minorities, the general

prediction that i see is that assad might go but the chaos that would ensue would be horrible with regard to the killing of people and the general melee. and it's not a question of choosing sides but the -- question of containing the disaster that has been created by the lack of authority. >> senator lugar, the dangers you point out are real. the opposition leadership recognizes those dangers. it's one of the reasons i said our policy is to try to accelerate the arrival of that tipping point. i don't know when the tipping point is going to come, and wouldn't even venture a guess. i hope i didn't make it sound as if it was coming tomorrow. i wish it were. we don't have any magic bullets to make it come tomorrow. the longer this goes on, the deeper the sectarian divisions, the higher the risks of long-term sectarian conflict, the higher risk of extremism.

so we want to see this happen earlier. but the risks you point out are recognized by the opposition. despite all of the divisions that ambassador ford knows better than i, the leadership of the various groups do seem to have a common goal. they do seem to have a common understanding of the importance of the fabric of syrian society, the importance of preserving that fabric. i was in tunis with secretary clinton and listened to a very inspiring address by the head of the syrian national council. he appealed directly to the christian in syria. he appealed directly to the alawites as well. i won't get the quote exactly right, but he said something like many of you have left over the years. many of you have felt the need to leave over the years. when you leave, part of syria dies, and we want a syria where you can all come home. again, not an exact quote. i'm trying to convey the sentiment of that. i think there is something to work with with the opposition leadership which is an understanding that what's

special about syria is that rich mosaic of communities, religions, ethnicity. and people want to preserve that. now the alawites are scared. you're absolutely right. ambassador ford would know more about that than i do. on the economic side of things, the syrian business community as i understand it, it's -- there they are traders. they have worked for decades, if not centuries on commerce across the middle east, connections to europe and beyond. this is one of those communities that needs to understand in our view that its future is better assured under a different type of system than is there now. one of the things that came out of the tunis meeting was a discussion, a commitment by the friends of syria to set up a working group to talk about reconstruction in syria afterwards in ways that the business community could see. we're talking practically about the trade relations, financial

connections that syria can have after assad in a better system. right now the sanctions imposed on syria by turkey, by the arab world, by europe, by the united states turkey and the arab world have cutouts. however, food prices are rising without question. with 30% of the population of syria under the -- we are making sure that we have food and medicine, making sure we have supplies to reach vulnerable populations. part of the system that the secretary announced in tunis was to make sure we had the money to pay for known partners who are used to dealing in conflict

situations to be able to get humanitarian supplies into vulnerable populations. >> i thank you very much. do you have a comment, ambassador, on that? >> if i might, senator, let me address three issues real quick. first the economic situation that you asked about. and then i'd like to make two points on the political side. first, with respect to the economy, it is in a sharp downward spiral, very sharp downward spiral. the exchange rate, for example, has depreciated 50% in a space of about seven months that has driven prices on the local markets in damascus, where we monitored prices, food prices went up something like 30% frn december and the beginning of february. it was a very sharp rise. what that is doing in syria is literally consumers are contracting their purchases. and so that's just aggravating

the spiral that's going down. it's one of the reasons the business community is so upset. in that sense the sanctions that we have imposed have had a real impact. we have tried as best we can, senator, to target our sanctions so that they don't hurt the syrian people. we have targeted government revenues, for example, in order to make it harder for the government to pay for its repression, to pay for its military and security forces. but we have never tried to block supplies of, for example, heating oil or cooking gas that would go into syria. when i was there last autumn, the story i heard from people, the biggest probably them lem they complained about in damascus, aside from the fear and depression and being arrested but the next thing out

of their mouths is there's no cooking gas, no heating oil and damascus is surprisingly cold in the winter. it snows. so the economy is hurting. the food supplies are available, as ambassador feltman said but people are reducing consumption. with regard to the political side, two points must be paid. first, the assad regime will try to paint this as a future against sunni arab islamist extremists and they are trying to frighten minority communities, especially as these minority communities looked at what happened in lebanon and iraq. they're very afraid. i think it is important for americans to understand that this is not about aloies versus

a sunni community. they suffered just as much depression and brutality as to their neighbors down the road in sunni arab neighborhoods. it important one of the leading activists on the ground inside syria on the ground and she's in hiding and moves around and will pop up from place to place, she is a young actress and she's very brave. the government has tried to arrest her many times. this is not aloie versus sunnis. this is about a family that happens to be aloii that has dominated the country and stripped it for 40 years. they are suffering, too. we have constantly urged in our discussions with the syrian opposition in the country and outside the country to underline to all the communities in syria,

whether they be christian and kurd, eight very complex social make-up that, all people in syria would be treated equally, that all people's basic human rights would be respected and it would be a syria where all different communities could live in harmony. we underline that message every time we meet the opposition. the opposition, as you knowed, it divided. it probably a reach to think they're going to unify any time soon into one single organization. i don't think that's going to happen. my question is a little different. can they unite around a official, and i described and ambassador feldman has described our vision and our suggestions. can they unite around a vision and can they unite around a transition plan? they don't all have to unite into one single party but they do need to share a vision and

they do not to share an agreement on wait forward. and that is also what we are counseling them. we're not writing their transition plan. that's not our role. they need to do it, syrians need to do it but they do need to come together behind a plan. >> we have a lot of senators and i want everybody to be able to get questions. mr. men endes. >> mr. secretary, can you talk to us about a measures are being encouraged to the russians and chinese to remove their objections in the security council? and in that regard as you answer that, are you -- state that is -- consulting with treasury on the possibility of designating and imposing sanctions under executive order 13572, chinese entities selling

weapons to assad? there's a lot of media reports stating russian state arms dealers are continuing to supply the assad regime with arms, at least four cargo ships have left a russian port for the syrian port of tarta since december of this past year carrying ammunition, sniper rifles and a host of other armaments. can you give as you sense both what's happening at the security council to move them from their present intransigence toward security council action and are we considering in the face of this weapons flow actionsnd the executive order? >> senator, thanks for the question. it's a -- you put your finger on a key element of any way forward in syria, which is what's the role of russia. i have to ad that i'm not a russia expert. you know, i defer to my bosses and my colleagues in the

european bureau to talk about russian motives and things. but i want to assure you that the sort of the contact with russia at all levels is continuing. russia has had interest and influence in syria for a long time. it seems to us that russia's not going to preserve those interests that russia deems to be important if it basically rides the assad titanic all the way to the bottom of the mediterranean that, this is not a very wise move for the russians to preserve their interests. i went out with a colleague a couple of weeks ago at the request of the secretary to have a pretty deep discussion with the discussions about how we see the way forward in syria, how we see the inevitable demise of assad and i felt that there was a lot of discomfort in russia

about where they are, that their analysis isn't all that different from ours about how unsustainable the situation is for assad inside syria. but so far we've been dispointed. to use stronger language about russia's action. even today, for example, when the human right council in generally a passed a resolution condemning what's happening in syria, the vote was 39-3 who are those three, china, russia and cuba who voted against a resolution simply on human rights grounds. we think it's time for the security council to act. we think it past time for the security council to act. this is the type of situation in syria that deserves security council action. so we're still in discussion with the russians. in an attempt to persuade them that they can be part of a solution. they can use their influence inside syria to be part