can assure you that european companies are coming, and that there's a real desire on the part of the libyan government and libyan people for american products and goods as before and the prime minister made that specifically to the president action secretary of state and everybody else he met with. so i think it's a good time for americans to -- business to come, you will be welcome, you won't get a contract your first day but you'll begin to establish the contacts that you will need that will stand you in good stead as this country makes its march toward democracy. thank you. >> thank you. now i'd like to call ambassador jeffrey. >> thank you very much. it's a pleasure to be here today. it's also we are very, very appreciative of the support we received from david and the other people from the national u.s. arab chamber of commerce including his visit to our pavilion during our recent, the

iraqi recent trade fair. you heard that the mark of morocco is stability. many would argue, to some degree that's what ambassador pickering was arguing that the mark of iraq is the still instability. we can't deny that to some degree. i'll try 18 second to put that in somewhat different context. let me talk about the business opportunities and the economy. iraq is set, if it can keep its political and security situation stable, to explode. it's got a per capita income of about 31, 3200. which is very, very low even for, well, low to the rest of the region and low compared to much of sub-saharan after friday california on the other hand its hydrocarbon reservings, 140 billion barrels known, probably 30 billion if not more in the kurdish area. plus, huge tracks of unexplored

terrain west of the country. bring it up close to saudi arabia's 240 billion of oil reserves, and in addition iraq has unquestionably more natural gas, so in terms of hydrocarbons it can compete eventually and underline eventually, with saudi arabia. it's got plans of the next eight or nine years to increase oil exports up to very optimistic 11 million barrels a day. we think if they are lucky they will get 8 or 9. but nonetheless they have got an extraordinary process under way with 14 international oil companies to develop their southern fields, they have got tremendous potential in the west as i said and also in the north. many political issues related to all of this but nonetheless they are on the move. gdp fueled by the increase in oil prices, increase in exports, about 300 to 400,000 barrels. is expanding in the double

digits. u.s. trade is expanding equally from 2010 to 2011, increased about 50% from 1.6 billion to 2.4 bill yochblt nothing like what we're doing with other countries but any time we do a 50% increase we're happy. the areas of concentration of u.s. success are in the oil and gas sector. secondly, heavy equipment, electrical generation, to some degree chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, defense obviously, and information technology and telecommunications. also we're very proud to say automobiles. so, there is a wide variety of american firms interested in this pavilion at the trade field was the largest, over 80 countries. as i said david attended to represent your organization. we were happy to see that.

we have again many, many embasa very large embassy, that are committed to both working with the iraqi economic system and with the iraqi government, to exploit its natural resources and develop its business sector, also to work with the american business community. now, let me get to the $800 question. what about security t political situation. iraq remains a democratic rule of law country. it's under tremendous stresses as it has been since 2003, those who have been there over the past eight years can attest to the fact that it's in much better shape now than it was six, seven years ago. nonetheless, while the security situation has improved dramatically in the 20 months i have been there, it still is an issue of concern for american firms as it should be. thus we have a strong osak we work to assure that americans

are safe and for a good long time american private sectors have been safe there. in terms of working with the iraqi government there are two problems. first of all at the whole sale or macro level you have difficulties with the iraqi system funding large scale infrastructure projects. the iraqis don't want to take out loans and there are some limitations on what they can do. this makes the process basically you have to get legislative decision or law for each project, very cumbersome and it's slowing down the development. we're working with them on that but that's the first constraint. countries need to find models to fund infrastructure development. they are putting a third of their $100 billion budget into infrastructure. a large part flows to the international community but nonetheless build, operate, turn over models and creative models that other countries have used, there is a real need for that in

iraq. at the retail or micro level, operating in iraq is a daily challenge from visas to finding communications, to communicate with your government, it's very, very demanding environment but we are a very, very supportive embassy and we urge people to look at our websites, we urge people to consider the iraqi alternative. there is a huge market there. american products as elsewhere in the middle east are in demand, we're doing well when we are making the effort. and i urge you to make the effort. thank you very much. >> thank you, ambassador jeffrey. it has been our privilege to work with you so closely in iraq. thank you for the opportunity to do that. like to call ambassador paterson. >> thank you very much. and let me say that i'm very pleased to say a few words to you today because i think economic engagement is going to be the key to our engagement in egypt. that's the area in which our

interests with the new government coincide. there's been a huge transformation, as gene said in the last year, two rounds of elections with i might say unexpected results, 70, 75% islamic parliament. presidential elections begin in ten weeks, another huge transformation under way. the next six weeks are going to be very, very dynamic and the next six months are going to be very unsettled so i want to sort of talk about the short run and the long term because i think they are vastly different pictures. political uncertainty is going to coincide with fairly sharp economic decline and i want to talk about some measures under way to reverse that. i think the long term prospects for american business in all sorts of aspects are actually quite promising in egypt. they have a drop in foreign exchange reserves, the pound is under considerable pressure.

inflation is up, the deficit has increased and perhaps most relevant to this audience, business problems have soared because it's very difficult to get paid by the government, people are reluctant to take decisions, there's been some talk of reversing privatizations but i think this will begin to settle down as the new government comes into office. there's a lot of caution on the part of foreign investors, particularly from the gulf. my own observation is that american investors and people -- americans doing business in egypt have been less hit with some of these problems than those from other countries. the good news is that the im 70s getting read the go into egypt, i think egypt will be able to raise the substantial amounts of foreign exchange that are required for a stabilization program, and the momentum should begin to turn around very quickly on the economy. i talk a lot about citibank report that indicated that egypt

could be one of the top 10 economies in the world. in the next generation. and for my own observation i think that's probably true. we're just going to have a very difficult period over the next few months. the long term indicators are good, in 2007, egypt had over 10 billion of direct american investment. it's down to 1 billion this year but i think it will recover. the newly empowered government this i think is important, has reached 0 but to us reareassurar commitment to free markets and to a level playing field with american and other foreign investors. they have a market orientation, and they have been careful to reassure us on issues of corruption, too, that this will be one of the first issues that they are going to tackle. there's a very strong domestic business communities in egypt. they have been a little shell

shocked by what's happened but i think they will recover and play the role they have always played. very strong existing business community for those of you looking for partners. we see large opportunities over the next few years, telecommunications is obvious one, penetration is still low. and 40,000 people work in smart village outside of cairo so there is an infrastructure in the telecommunications industry. we anticipate that electric power generation will be another area of substantial growth. and infrastructure. the infrastructure is seriously deteriorated and the new government has made every indication that they are going to invest heavily in infrastructure. there will be some sort of subsets of infrastructure like rail. if they modify the subsidies rail will become vastly more attractive as a long term investment.

this will require capital and require engineering services, it will require construction and transport equipment. but again, our embassy is, i think, provides good services to american business. we're eager to help you in these areas and please get in touch with us because we think there is a lot of long term opportunity there because of the underlying demographics and strength of the business community. thank you. >> thank you, ambassador paterson. and i want to say how -- just with regard to as the presentations now particularly iraq, lib yarks certainly egypt, how appreciative we are as americans of your being there and the incredible service and dedication required to do your jobs. and i want to, on behalf of the we don't get an opportunity later on behalf of all of us in this room, like to thank you for

your service to the united states. [ applause ] >> i now like to call on the ambassador of u.s. embassy bahrain. >> thank you very much. thanks for being here. it is an honor to be here with such distinguished colleagues whose jobs are much more difficult than mine sin bahrain f. any country might deserve a do over of the events of last year would be bahrain. if you look at the situation before february of last year, bahrain was a model of prosperity, a great place to do business. they had succeeded in diversifying their economy beyond petro chemicals, manufacturing, banking, financial, services sectors, and creating a moderately vibrant middle and working class. in 2010, bahrain was ranked 33

of 183 countries on the world bank's ease of doing business index. indicative of a regulatory environment that was conducive to investment and to business development. between 2002 and 2010, bahrain succeeded in tripling its banking and financial services sector to more than $225 billion. and attracting 152 offshore banking units and representative offices including many american businesses. 2006 we negotiated a free trade agreement with bahrain, one of the few such agreements in the middle east region. and since 2006, the volume of bilateral trade has risen slowly but steadily. but, political and security realities have eclipsed certainly my focus on business and economy in bahrain. in recent civil unrest

continuing unrest, has weakened bahrain's economy and has presented it with a series of challenges that are profound. today it faces a drop in tourism revenue, particularly among saudi visitors, businesses leaving, rather than coming to the country, lost investment opportunities driven by a perception that unrest has affected the business climate. a credit downgrade of bahraini bonds, and cancellation of major revenue generating events, most last year the formula one race. if they don't reach a political resolution, this climate could continue to stagnate. and causing rising unemployment and even deeper economic divides in the country. unemployment, underemployment, economic hardship are the future

without a political resolution. and while the reasons for the recent unrest are complex, they need economic growth in order to address some of these grievances. nonetheless, as ambassador picker all consummate optimists. i am optimistic today about the government of bahrain and about bahrain's ability to overcome the challengesed confronts and realize its potential again. and we are working with bahrainis from all segments of society to seize that opportunity. we're advising several steps, a continued diversification away from petro chemicals, using the free trade agreement to promote bilateral trade volume, and increased participation in the economy from all segments of the society. implementation of political and security sector reforms will

address many of the root causes of this unrest. finally, i'd want to underscore that while this is a dramatic transitional period for bahrain, there are important investment opportunities out there for you, and i would repeat, i am confident and optimistic, that the government of bahrain knows what it has to do, is in the process of doing it, and will succeed in establishing greater stability, both political and social to the island which will enable economic investment to return. thank you. >> thank you. our final speaker on the panel is ambassador ensure from algeria. >> thank you very much. i think the thing to do here is start with a little good news bad news. good news is that algeria reminds me a great deal of my home state of california. the potential is vast.

in fact, it's a mediterranean climate like much of california b. the same size population, a larger country, and also has a highly educate and diverse population. also has effective security forces and a lot of money in the bank. somewhere between $180 billion and $200 billion in the bank in cash. and demonstrated willingness to spend it. so, that's on the good news side from the business perspective. bad news side is that much of algerian economic-macro economic policy seems designed to thwart the fulfillment of that potential. there is movement, there is progress, there is an increasing number of foreign companies coming into algeria outside of the traditional hydrocarbon sector that includes increased american interests, and one can certainly see huge potential in,

for example, the pharmaceutical areas. i would point to ongoing defense articles, high end, defense articles of various sorts including those for use for surveillance and reconnaissance. there's a particular ongoing issue i'm having to do with a conflict of u.s. law with algerian concern for sovereignty that remain as significant issue that again we're working through and i see signs of progress there. and finally, maybe because i'm from california, i would cite potential for agribusiness as well. so a lot of money to be made in algeria if and not to sound too much like one part of the u.s., if the government would get out of the way a little bit things would rapidly improve. when we think about ways to do business in algeria, the areas where there's the most potential we tend to think about sort of a three-part -- can't do it --

diagram. this would be an area in which the algerian people really want whatever it is. the government is willing and sees strong reasons to do whatever that thing is. and thirdly, we, the united states, are really good, almost uniquely good at that thing and so that's where you get into areas like pharmaceuticals, defense, agribusiness and communications of various sorts. so, those are the three, the major areas of potential and the major issues. when we decide how to spend our time at the embassy we focus on security cooperation, which is deep, broad and growing in both directions i would say. it will be increasingly important for algeria to play a regional leadership role in addressing the growing security threats posed by a confluence of events including events -- i'll use that word, events in libya,

and the potential for the poten development of an al qaeda sanctuary particularly in northern -- this is an area that will require aljeerian leadership. it's the country that's best posed to act in that area with the support of u.s. and other foreign partners. we are interested in expanding commercial relations outside of the hydrocarbon area while maintaining a historic and privileged position in hydro carbo carbons. finally we're there to reach out to civil society both because that's a policy objective on its own. we support dmok ritization and human rights all over the world. also because if there is a continued and significant change in algeria wae want to make sure we have friends throughout the society so we're very aggressive in broadening our contacts throughout algerian civil

society. finally, i'll just mention the fact of a couple of election cycles coming up. first on may 10th that's for the parliament. there's a huge diversity of parties and we would expect such elections which would be heavily observed by the international community and by algerians to be free and fair and to produce a result reflecting the new political realities in the region, to put it this way. and then there's perhaps even more important local elections in the fall which will decide control over algerian communities and municipalities. that anything that i've said wrong, the ambassador will clean up afterwards. [ laughter ] . >> thank you. we've got several questions. if i could plow into those. unfortunately by our strict schedule we have all of 15

minutes. so i'm going to hopefully be able to bend that timing a little bit to the great detriment of panel two. i'd like to start some of our questioning if i could. ambassador, do you think business in libya must await national elections before it really cranks up, and is there an effort now being made by the national council to reform the antiquated legal structure for doing business? >> i don't think business need wait for the elections. the process will be on june 21st hopefully, there will be an election for who will be tasked -- two tasks. one is to write the c also to c transitional temporary government for the period of one more year. so you can -- you could keep saying let's wait until then,

let's wait until that point or that point. i think now really is the time to come to libya for business because even if the top names change, the people who are going to be dealing with contracts and economy and commercial ventures will be part of the political and economic fabric of libya for years to come. so i don't think there's any purpose served by waiting until the elections because -- the fluidity of the situation could be very similar to what it is right now. the point is you must come, establish yourself, make contacts that will stand you in good stead for the years to come. like i said, the government is in no position right now to award big contracts for several reasons. but you are in a position to make contact with the people who will be making those decisions as the days and weeks go by.

>> the second part? >> the second part, are there efforts underway to reform the somewhat antiquated legal structure of the old regime. the somewhat antiquated legal structure of the old regime. is there some serious effort? >> they're reviewing all the different laws from the gadhafi era. i will tell you that the in terms of transparency and in terms of getting rid of the endemocratic corruption that so characterized the gadhafi years, this government is being determined to doing that and creating a new environment for business to come. that doesn't mean that the entire system that characterized the gadhafi years will be gone. one of the reasons i might add that the government has been so reluctant to start new projects and to give out new contracts is

because they are so keenly aware of the eyes that are upon them with respect to corruption. so they're being very meticulous almost to the point of inefficientsy. >> thank you, ambassador. our chamber has supported your efforts to get more u.s. business -- thank you. to get more business investment in iran. severe problems remain as you indicated. is the al maliki government serious about maintaining foreign investment? you mentioned finance in particular as a problem particular oi on infrastructure products. a lot of american business would say it's also entry level problems. getting permits, getting

registered. some problem with corruption, et cetera. is there a focus on that currently in the government? >> here's the problem with government focuses. even a not particularly well organized little government like the iraqi government is a mirror image of the u.s. government. i can assure you all today that somewhere within three or four miles of us there is a federal bureaucrat what is worried about every single issue on the world and is quote focused on it. whether he or she will achieve anything here in washington and in baghdad. they are focused on these things. we tell them, other people tell them, the imf tells them. the formal answer is special enjoys to look this. the real answer is hey lots of people are coming here. turkey, korean, the eu.

in certain sectors the americans. they're figuring out ways to work out through the oceans of bureaucracy and the pools full of red tape and making a profit here. nonetheless, it's our job as the american embassy to try to streamline these procedures to the extent we can with the iraqi government in some areas such as visas, we've made some progress in the last three or four months. it is a very, very tough process. working in iraq is not for sissies. okay. trust me. if somebody works in iraq. but as also i think most of the many thousands of people in the newspaper from the famous american mission would say it's a profitable and enjoyable undertaking because iraq does want as much american involvement as possible.

one of the ways that we try to deal with the political issues i've cited earlier and ambassador pickering also listed is to try to encourage this kind of business involvement and engagement. it is tough. on the other hand, there is much money to be made and there are good long-term contracts to be made. our assumption is it's not a complete live certain assumption, it's a pretty good one that iraq will remain a unified relatively stable country. will improve in terms security. and will grow enormously thanks if nothing else to the increased oil exports. come on in. thank you. >> thank you, ambassador, jeffrey. ambassador patterson, could you give us some insight into the presidential election upcoming in egypt that will likely occur in may. will the president possibly line up in some kind of alliance with the mill tariff, vis-a-vis the new parliament?

is that enough in one question? >> that's enough. i think the last i saw -- last i saw from the embassy is hundreds of thousands of people had decided to run for president in egypt, which is a reflection of the new democracy there. there's probably a half dozen serious competitors. let me say you learn many the foreign service never to predict elections. i will say he's well known to most people in this room was leading in all the polls, american polls, egyptian polls, other polls and is probably still leading. these are the same polls, i might add that were astonishingly mistaken about the priest vote. there wasn't a single poll that predicted they were going to show above 5% and they got 22%. you can't rely on polls. the demographic analysis of egypt is notry