so it's a very, very important time in terms of the history of the u.n. ban ki-moon's own administration and a very important time for the world's development of its own development agenda, the second phase of the mdgs. final point. this is not by itself a climate issue. rio is not specifically about climate change, but obviously, we can't deal with climate change unless we deal with a number of building blocks and dealing with energy and energy efficiency and renewables is a major building block for a climate agreement. maybe that's a useful kind of outline for getting us going as to where this fits together and why this is important, where it came from and then beginning sense of a road map of where we go from here.

>> good morning. it's a great delight to be here. center for global development and climate advisers. are going a great job putting this together as a force for good. i'm very pleased that we are discussing the initiative when the center has put it together for us and to me, this gathering here represents the philosophy that we are trying bring today, the sustainable energy for all. this is the kind of partnership. the leaders in this room, this is what is needed to look at this issue and see what solutions we can come up with. the world bank has been

associated with sustainable energy from the days that secretary general annan started the initiative. we are one of the founding members of this with the u.n. and our president is very common to this. we embrace this strongly and are finding ways in which were achieving the goals. i just want to make four points in my opening remarks, what does it mean in terms of achieving access to acleaving electrification for $1.3 billion? and to start with that, if you look around the world, where are these $1.3 billion located? you can see most are in africa. about 580 million of them. south asia, 350 million and east asia and other parts of the world, about 350 million. so these challenge of delivering electricity and clean cooking

fuels is simple goal, but it has several challenges built within it. so if you take the case of the market states. in united states, in the 1930s, most did not have electricity and it was during the fdr administration in 1936 that the electrification act was brought in. by 1953, 90% of u.s. farms has electricity. so in a period of 20 years, this electrification drive with a lot of federal funding subsidy behind it, but also a lot of political commitment. it is exactly the kind of effort that is needed at the country's specific level to pick up both in terms of funding and political drive this electri electrification process. if you look across the world, even though you have access in many countries in the developed

countries, the con sumgts factors are very different. in the u.s. for instance, on average, a person consumes 12,900 kilowatt hours of electricity a year. in the u.k., 5,700 kilowatt hours of electricity a year. brazil, it's 2,200. in china, 2,600. mexico, 1,940. so you can see that that is a wide vary ration in factors and here in lies the point of what made about the way in which we consume electricity and the level of efficiency that can be obtained. just to look at some numbers. if in in the u.s., every person were to consume ten less per month, that could save 4,000 megawatts of capacity. which is the combined demand of kenya, uganda.

there is huge potential for savings in energy conservativer that can fuel the power we need in cleaner ways. let me address briefly the potential of power. in addition to their daily tasks of lightening potential is very important. in developing countries, people in the rural areas use electricity mostly for lighting, cell phone charging more an more and for other simpler basic tasks. but there is a lot of productive potential that can drive economic growth, economic development and this is why the widing electricity not just for lighting, but for other productive purpose ss very important. it will unleash a lot of human potential in these countries and raising and this issue about

raising private emissions with electricity also has to be put in the right context. let me take the case of vietnam. when vietnam, when you see in the early 1918s, it had about 14% of electrification. 14% of the people living in rural vietnam, today, it has gone up to 40%. in these 19 years, between 1993 and today, the key factors have been vietnam itself, its strong leadership, community participation, development, work governments at the local and national levels and the lot of the capacity development technical assistance by institutions like the world bank. brazil has access we just heard from 1980 and now from 50%.

what has been the impact? the emissions have not increased that much. it is increased about 30% in all of vietnam. in you look at the profile of electrification. this is where -- we need to find ways in which we can balance the provision of electricity, limiting and mitigating elect i electrification. a word about financing. leveraging the finances available, i just mentioned that the electrification programs in many countries including the u.s. have required public funding. speaking of the public funding and leveraging is what is needed. the iea estimates that current levels of investment, about $9

billion per year, need to go up to about $48 billion per year over the next few years if the u.n. sustainable energy goals have to be met. and leveraging different financing sources, for instance, climate investment funding, large scale investments are making a huge difference across the world in how we are able to bring both the public and private sector together. we also have to scale up some of the proven programs that have delivered in the past few years. many grand funded programs like the energy sector management assistance program, lighting africa and the global aligns for stoves, programs like that have delivered substantial results and these need nb scaled up including programs like the global gaslighting production. there is also a big role for

knowledge for assistance in countries to achieve these goals and the knowledge function is another idea that the world bank, partners with the international and energy agencies to see how this can be built up. in closing, i wanted to say that this is a very challenging agenda. and i've only touched on a few aspects. i welcome the -- the u. and the partnership that this would bring and collective knowledge, financing and the technical capacity that it would bring together with the private sector to help achieve these goals. thank you. >> thank you very much. i think you got us off to a great start. maybe i'll ask you each one question.

try to be short and then we'll have time to collect some both. we'll have time to collect some comments from participants. some of you are standing in the back. let me invite you to come up and take some seats in the front if you're willing. and able. tim, you really have been carrying the water for the secretary general on this set of issues as i understand it. maybe you could share with us, it was very interesting for me to hear that the u.s. for many years was not endorsing the united nations taking issue. you're not hearing me? >> no, i hear you. >> he's not hearing me. are you hearing me? >> yes. >> yes. >> mines turned out, so apparently, you hear it, too. >> it's okay. tim, we can hear tim so far.

what countries have endorse, joined in? >> it's more complicated than you can imagine. if you go to the u.n. and talk to all the reps, the ambassadors, almost uniformly, with the exception of maybe a nod of two or three sort of renegades and the americas and couple of people surrounding in the arabian peninsula, everybody's for this. they all say this is a great idea. but when various negotiations begin, you begin to have a lot of joint backsliding. people saying well, i really don't want to get that done or let's put this off for a time.

great big countries and we really sure we want to get involved in this if ths a requirement, doubling the renewable energy now in 2030, is that going to apply to us? is there general guidelines and u.n. norms? so, it gets much more complicated. in anything -- he has down so with kande and very good reformer and now the chairman of the bank of america is the other co-chair. i mean, these are serious efforts along with lots and lots of companies just to kind of bulldoze you through it. if you're meek about it, it gets

pecked to death. that's true of what goes on in capitol hill. if you drive it, it doesn't happen. the u.n. is more difficult, so that happens here. is the u.s. a leerd in this? we'll hear from the special representative who's focusing on this for hillary. the u.s. is always a bit nervous about any kind of international agreement and we would hope they would pick this and drive it and help to make it become a reality. i think that is now going to happen. let's hope that's going to happen. >> okay, v.j., maybe you could say a little more about vietnam because everyone always talks about partnership and private capital. the question is about the policy environment in many countries. will it attract private capital. what were the keys in vietnam? i was struck when you were talking, it's so world bank in a good way, but also in a troubling way. you have to put everything

together. the technical stance. financing, the right policy. give us insight into how it worked in vietnam and why? what were the key issues that got addressed? >> thank you, nancy. vietnam is a very interesting case because here was a country that came out of war, out of conflict. they were very committed to finding ways, in a very intensive way and in 1993, when they began embarking, finding ways they could increase electrification. a lot of good factors were present that enabled that to get off to a good start. so you had a good program from the agencies, development bank,

who provide technical assistance and capacity building to understand and prepare these sort of ground work for looking at solutions that would enable them to achieve this electrification. then the whole issue about how do you find it. as i mentioned, successful cases of electrification around the world have got two major ingredients that sort of cut across everything. one is a large level of political commitment to keep drive i driving the campaign. it doesn't happen in five years, it takes 10, 15, 20 years. in the u.s., it took 20 years. it's something that used to be consistent across the political spectrum and vietnam achieved that kind of political commitment behind the campaign. second is large amounts of public concession of funding that is needed to power the or

to at least finance the networks needed in order to put in place some of the large investments that are needed to create that basic framework. so in the case of vietnam again, this was driven largely by a lot of concessional lending and funding from grants and other sources for vietnam over a sustained period of time. so together at the same time, they had to start looking at diversifying their resource base as well. we'll start the moving. they have a much more balanced system for power than they had in the 1990s and it has grown quite substantially as compared to some of the other countries that are totally dependent. so the key factors i would say,

they engendered a very strong community participation. at the national level, the local levels, the local governments behind this push. they brought in a lot of civil society organizations. so in the big name for five or ten years, it was very messy. there were different types of models in play off grade, on grade and all these coexist today in vietnam. you have the ledges powered to many grades in off systems with local generation. there are systems connected with it. many islands that have stand alone systems. so what has emerged as a very micked kind of approach, but it has worked in its dimensions. for five or ten year, did it guard more system attic and starts to produce more. >> very interesting and no problems with pricing, under pricing. there's constant pressure. >> there's always pressure for

pricing. >> right. >> and it's as much of a political issue as anything else that's in it to work. >> that's our problem in the u.s., too. 12,000 megawatts or whatever it was. >> 10,000 kilowatt hours. >> there must be some underpricing as the global level. all right, let's turn to those of you who would like to raise questions. please introduce yourself. a mike will come to you. >> good morning. maria. i would like to know more about what you mean by sustainable, access and all. particularly for practitioners and furthermore, this idea of sustain bability for all, can we really achieve this by 2030? thank you. >> thank you. let's -- is that okay with you?

we do several questions and then people have time? each has time to do what you like, so go ahead. >> hi, my name is -- i'm a student from american university and my question is very simple. what will happen to oil dependent countries as their economy relies on oil and that not always they have another alternative source of income, such as my own country, mexico, will it does have solar, that their economy heavily relies on oil and is it really possible to break this energy monopoly from fuel burning energy? >> michelle? >> i'm michelle from the center of global development. when i look at the u.n. goals, it says doubling renewable

energy, so we're to go from 3% to 6%. is that enough? >> great question. one more. let's go to lisa is it? >> thanks. lisa freedman. i was also interested in vietnam and the 30% per capita emissions increase. it sounds like perhaps you're saying that the concern about emissions rise in developing countries is a little misplaced. can you talk about, you know, with an energy strategy stuck at the world bank for more than a year now, you know, what -- what is the bank's plan now for balancing the need to develop sustainably and not cause irreversible damage with the pressure from developing countries to build with coal? >> great. thank you very much. why don't we go to tim and then to vijay.

>> it's a really good question on renewables. it's the rate of renewable entry into -- not the absolute percentage, whatever it is today. by 2030 we're going to double that. no. the rate of penetration annually we hope is going to double. and that's happening in many, many places across the world. even in our own backyard, we've seen renewable goals that get set that are not only being achieved, but now we've gone beyond them, causing troubles for much of the renewable energy. so it's the rate, not the absolute percentage. i think your question reflected absolute percentage. >> for those of us that can't do all that compounding in our head, could we suggest that the goal be framed in a way -- >> it ends up as doubling about 50% penetration of all energy. the hope is it's approximately a 50% goal -- a goal of approximately 50% penetration of

renewable energy by 2030, okay? that's what you end up with, something in that ballpark. >> okay. >> does that make sense? >> yeah. that's much more ambitious. good. >> no it's not. if you compound interest, it's a wonderful thing. >> as i said, we can't all do -- it's a better way to say it. that's what i mean. >> well, lots of way of saying it. how to lie with statistics too. >> maybe we could fool the u.s. into agreeing -- >> hear from carlos. they'll be okay. we'll hear from carlos. they'll be okay, probably. >> all right. vijay? >> actually, just to pick up on that point and the question that came, at one level these goals are definitely aspirational. i mean this is to drive action. this is to drive commitment. this is to drive a campaign among countries to build awareness for something that has long -- long development challenges have not been addressed in the way some of the other development challenges have been addressed through the

mdgs, et cetera. and these goals, the way they are defined have to be unpacked. they have to be understood in the context of each country and each region. it's not the case that every country will have to increase its renewable energy share by 50%. there are countries that are better place to do it than some others. and a lot of the action on energy efficiency and renewable energy will have to come in the developed world. i give you the example of the united states where energy saving potential is very high. similarly in europe, the energy potential saving is very high. the eu already has goals for 2020 that they are looking at increasing the share of renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2020 that is driving all the eu member countries and aspiring u member countries towards that direction. so a lot of the inhernt action is already taking place. if you look at last year's statistics, about $250 billion

was invested in renewable energy around the world. and almost half of it came from the private sector. and a lot of this investment took place in the middle income countries in china and in india and in brazil. so clearly there is action element to these aspirational goals that is proceeding. and the hope is with the leadership of the u.n., secretary general, and other institutions and the partnership that we are forging and the convening that is happening around these goals will start to drive more and more action and campaign around reaching that goal. to pick up the question that michelle asked, actually, some analytical work needs to be done to unpack these different goals and to see what they mean in real numbers and real terms. so together with the international energy agency, the world bank has already started doing some analytical work to support the secretary general's scheme. in terms of finding what this will mean and what the targets will be, what will it look like,

it will bring some scenarios. what is the rate for renewable energy is x percent. what will it look like in 2030. and we would like to track what is happening on these goals around the world also for a period of time. so we are trying to put in place some systems, some monitoring frameworks that will enable the campaign to track what is happening and where we are in achieving some of the goals say five years from now or ten years from now. picking up this question about the balance between emissions and energy access. in some countries, the solution is fairly clear. there is a lot of potential to scale up renewable energy and sources of energy, and some countries it's more challenging. so just to illustrate, the way we are approaching at least from the world bank this issue of how do we balance access with making it clean and green and reducing emissions as we do it, let's look at east africa.

east africa is a very good example there are some countries with very low access there, kenya, uganda, tanzania has less than 10% access, ethiopia. look at the resources available in east africa. and you look sort of 10, 15 years ahead, say let's do 2025, the demand in these five or six countries in east africa can be met by a mix which would be about 1/3 geothermal power, which is very clean, 1/3 hydro power, and 1/3 of it would be from gas or other sources. so you could get a 33, 33, 33% mix in east africa over a period of time. but that action has to start today to get to that mix. today the mix is heavily weighted in favor of fossil fuels and hydro power. but to balance that mix of power over time, investments in geothermal exploration, investments in finding the right kind of responsible hydro power

projects that can be done with minimum impact on the environment, these are some of the issues that we are helping these countries with the long-range planning, finding ways in which you can set the goals today, set the ground today so that ten years from now you end up with that kind of mix. >> let me go back for a minute to the question. i think i answered nancys, what is the overall. really, the aspiration is about a 30% penetration of renewables by 2030. not 50, but 30% the overall penetration. there is another point that i think just to go to vijay talking about the financing of this. the u.n. is at its best when it's setting norms. not in the operational sense, but is setting enormous, which is why the process, the process of engaging countries, getting agreements in a place like rio, providing those enormous, therefore provide a base against which groups, nongovernmental

organizations, states, political parties, you know, can hold governments accountable to that set of norms. that's why what the -- generally why what the u.n. does overall is so very important. the finance side of it falls more into the world bank. but the world bank in cooperation with the global compact in terms of making this a reality. we're not going to reach the goals of the sustainable energy for all with concessionary financing only. it is certainly not going to be done, you know, with government funding or aid funding. we're going to have to be very creative, and there are teams now working on different financial models so that government funding, foreign assistance funding can be used as, say, risk insurance can be used to cover the differential or the costs that are perceived by the private world as the costs between what it's going -- what would they do in a normal

market, is this a troubling market, is there a delta there that has to be covered, and we would cover that with some kind of public financing. there are lots of different new models on that coming out. that's going to be one of the most interesting, one of the most interesting features of, again, the very close relationship between the world bank and the u.n. system in trying to figure out how to finance this very ambitious set of goals. >> yeah, that's going to be a very good segue. keep that in your minds for when we come to the next session. let me just say a word about the question on oil from our colleague from mexico. oil and natural gas. i was reminded, tanzania has just had a huge discovery of natural gas. and of course brazil is about to have come on board very soon a lot of oil for the global market. for development people, the challenge is how to manage