brookings has a long-standing relationship. we have been changing thoughts and opinions for several years. we have been hosting officers under our federal executive fellowship program here. the national counterterrorism center is a relatively new part of the united states national security bureaucracy. it is only about 10 years old. it has many responsibilities, but the most important is to prepare the national terror threat assessment. ac -- it decides how serious to both terrorist threat is, how serious the terrorist environment is. when president obama meets with his homeland security principles, it is matt who opens the meeting by saying here is the threat and how serious it is. it is a heavy responsibility.

not the secretary of state or the secretary of defense. he does not decide what targets we bomb, whether we cozy up to assad or not. he is extremely well-qualified qualified for the position he is holding. those in the audience have already seen his bio. he is a graduate of university of virginia and harvard law school, has worked in the department of justice and the national security agency. he worked on the glenn, no bay review process. -- the guantanamo bay review process. this is extremely timely. iraq,he islamic state of the killing of another american yesterday with an american commander operating in somalia. and for many other reasons, it is especially good to have him here today. the format will be simple. matt will speed for 20 or 25

minutes and then i will take the prerogative and we will open it up to the audience. if you have your telephone on, please turn it off. i know you have an awesome sound but might is even better so please turn years off. thank you so much. >> thank you very much. this past may, a man walked into a juice museum in belgium, opened fire, killing four people. , a 20 nine-year-old french national, had recently returned from syria, where he fought alongside the islamic state of iraq. the very next day, a 22-year-old american from florida blew himself up. while detonating a massive truck bomb in a restaurant in northern syrianone frequented by soldiers. the bomb killed dozens. the american suicide bomber was

with me on the news front and and al qaeda affiliate posted online the video attack. finally, over the past two weeks, and isil terrorist executed two american journalists who were taken hostage. isl then posted these images for the world to see. our thoughts and prayers are takenhe families together, these her thick acts of violence highlight why security and intelligence officials across europe and around the world are alarmed about the rise of isil. and the terrorism threat we see emanating from syria and iraq today. threats in the region as well as

to the u.s.. just to the west. the president spoke directly to these concerns, calling isil an immediate threat to iraq and people around the region. likewise, the british prime minister is increasing its threat level, citing information . this morning, i would like to spend a few minutes talking about the nature of the terrorist threat we see in syria and iraq. i will talk about the rise of isil and the challenges we face, but also why isil is not invincible. situationcuss how the in syria and iraq fits into the broader terrorism landscape as i tried to put this into the overall context we see. i will finally touch on the steps to address the threats they pose security. let me thank the brookings institution to death for

inviting me to speak. also everything that goes on here at brooking. there is a natural connection mentioned between the work of brookings and the work at ntc -- nt tc. analyzing ther terrorist threat information. we have sent some of our best and brightest here to brookings to serve as fellows. the other thing i would like to say is as a director of -- i talk it is our role to about this and share our insights. this summer, the 9/11 commissioners issued a new report and asked national security leaders to communicate to the public in specific terms about what the threat is and how it is evolving. i see the event as an opportunity to do this and shed a measure of light.

there is no doubt the american newsc is gripped with the of the violence we see in iraq. this is completely understandable, particularly in light of the video we have seen yesterday and a couple of voice ago. isil is a dangerous organization by every measure, extremely dangerous, operating in a chaotic part of the world. it has exploited the conflict in the -- in syria, pleaded tensions in iraq, both to enrich itself in these countries, and it now spans the geographical center of the middle east. the group uses terrorists and insurgents tactics. like an insurgency, it has seized and is trying to govern territory. isil poses a direct and significant threat to us and to iraqi and syrian forces in the region and potentially to us at home. the group's rapid step from the battlefield, it's tactics, it's

claimed to be the new ideological leader of the global jihadist movement, these all account for our intense focus on the group. beyond isil, other terrorist networks in syria pose a threat to us, even as we continue to terrorist organizations across the middle east and much of north africa. i will talk now about how we assess the threat from isil. i will take a few minutes to walk through this. i will begin with the background. i think it is important to start their. a veteran sunni terrorists founded the group in 2004 and pledged his allegiance at the time to bin laden. iraq, targeted u.s. forces, targeted civilians using suicide bombers, car bombs, to pressure the u.s. and other countries to leave iraq and quickly gained a reputation for brutality and tyranny. isil's continued

targeting and oppression of sunni civilians in iraq caused a widespread backlash against the group, often referred to as the sunni awakening. a surge in forces as well as iraq he counterterrorism operations that only denied and led to a sharp decrease. in 2011, the group began to reconstitute itself amiss growing sunni discontent in iraq and the civil war in syria. in 2012, isil conducted an average of 5-10 suicide attacks per month in iraq. by last summer, the number had grown to 30-40 such attacks per month. iraq,gaining strength in it exploited chaos in syria to expand its operations across the border. the group established a front as a cover for its activities in syria. --april last year, it

presence in syria under the isil banner. they publicly pledged their allegiance -- their allegiance. year, isil of this was declared no longer a branch of the group. at the same time, isil accelerated its efforts to overthrow the iraqi government this past january. the group marched from a safe haven in syria across the border in northern iraq, slaughtering thousands of iraqi muslims, sunnis, on its way this june. through battlefield victories, the group gained weapons, equipment, and territory, and isil we think takes in as $1 million per day from oil sales, smuggling, and ransom payments. by late june this past summer, it declared the establishment of .he islamic caliphate

three overarching factors, and i rise and about the success of isil. first, isil has asked weighted the failure of the syrian and iraqi states to maintain control over their more remote regions. assad's brutal treatment of its suppresse, to forcibly the opposition, has acted as a magnet for extremist and foreign fighters. the withdrawal of security forces during military ofagements has left the loss military largely ungoverned there. the group can plan and train and .lot, as well as to coordinate with little or no interference. iso has been able to move personnel supplies. secondly, it has proven to be a

fighting force. it's battle strategy is complex and adaptive. terrorist operations, hit and run tactics, military assaults come enabled the group of his rapid gains. tactics mayfield have helped the group hold and administer territory. sunnis have few alternatives in iraq and syria. the leadership has pushed them to the sidelines of the political process for years, and i so has been recruiting young sunnis to the fight. it views itself as the new leader of the global jihadist movement. it operates the most significant propaganda machine of any extremist group. it disseminates timely and media content on multiple platforms, including social media, all designed with widespread following in the group. to tout itsedia

military capabilities, its execution of captured soldiers, and its consecutive number of battlefield victories. the group's supporters have more recently sustained the momentum on social media by encouraging attacks in the united states and against u.s. interests in retaliation for our airstrikes. it uses propaganda campaign to bring foreign fighters to the group, including many western -- from western countries. qaeda is the dominant voice of influence in the global extremist movement. today, isil has more than 10,000 ,ighters, it controls much crossroads of the middle east area, about the size of the kingdom, and its strategic goal is to establish a caliphate to armed conflict with apostate regimes. those it considers apostates such as iraq, syria, and the united states are at it poses a

multifaceted threat to the united states. i will talk about this now in detail. in january, its leaders warned the u.s. will soon be in direct conflict with the group. there is little doubt isl views the u.s. as a strategic enemy. the threat is most acute in iraq. safe haven and resources their present an immediate and direct threat to america. this includes our embassy in baghdad, our conflict, and americans held hostage by isil. in the region, lebanon, turkey, jordan, isil has the capability to carry out small-scale attacks and threaten americans as a result. but the threat extends beyond the region to the west. it has the potential to use it safe haven to plan a coordinated attack in europe and the united states during the threat became real this past year.

also, with the arrest of an individual recently in france, connected to isil and upon his arrest, several explosive devices were discovered. at this point, we will have no credible information that isil is planning to attack the united states. we know more than 12,000 foreign fighters have flocked to syria in the past three years, including more than 1000 europeans and more than 100 americans. many of the foreign fighters have joined isil ranks. fighters may use these to conduct external attacks. the foreign fighters are likely to gain experience in training and eventually to return to their own country. return to their own country battle hardened. many are likely to possess western passports and travel documents. the fbi has arrested more than half a dozen individuals seeking to travel from u.s. to syria to

support isil. we remain mindful of the possibility that an isil sympathizer motivated by online propaganda could conduct attacks with little or no warning. any threat to the u.s. homeland from these types of extremist is likely to be limited in scope and scale. dire as all of this sounds, from my vantage point, it is important that we keep this threat in perspective and we take a moment to consider it in the context of the overall terrorist landscape. that is certainly part of our responsibility. viewede of isil can be as one man assisted -- of the global jihadist movement in the past several years. we have seen the movement diversify and expand in the aftermath of the upheaval and political chaos since 2010. the threat now comes from a

decentralized array of organizations and networks. isl is only one of the groups we are concerned about. al qaeda core continues to support attacking the west and for now remains the recognized leader of the global jihadist, even as it struggles to mount operations under sustained pressure. veteran al qaeda fighters have traveled from pakistan to take advantage of the permissive operating environment there. they are focused on plotting against the west. al qaeda's official branches in yemen and somalia remain extremely active. we have seen al qaeda at the arabian peninsula repeatedly try to keep down an airline in the u.s., targeting personnel in yemen. he capability to carry out its terrorist attack against the united states. it is now a leader within al qaeda and the group's propaganda

continues to resonate outside yemen. it threatens u.s. and western personnel in the region, even with the losses since 2011. al qaeda has taken advantage of the security vacuum, the flow of weapons across borders to unify north and west africa. unprecedented levels of violence are being carried out in advance of elections that year. here in the united its, last year's bombing at the boston marathon is a sober reminder of the sustained threat we face from self-directed violent extremist. you can see the terrorist threat emanates from a broad area. terrorist networks have exploited the lack of governance and lack of security in these areas. terrorist groups we think are active in at least at length -- at least 11 insurgencies and these groups contribute to

insurgencies and exploit the government's ability to fight on multiple fronts. i want to point out identifying these threats is increasingly challenging for us. the groups are adapting tactics to avoid our intelligence collection. terrorist groups are looking for simpler, smaller scale attacks easier to pull off. lester ats an attack the westgate mall in a row be. -- in nairobi. terrorists are changing how they communicate to avoid surveillance or they are moving usinge secure platforms, encryptions, and in some case -- this is a problem for us. to identify and disrupt plots. the point is this. isl has captured our immediate focus. it is only one of the myriad

groups that poses a threat to us as a terrorist landscape evolves and becomes increasingly complex and challenging for us. mind, letcontext in me spend the last minutes talking about the strategy to defeat isil. as formidable as it is as a group, it is not invincible. broad coalition of international partners, we have the tools to defeat isil based on a determined and comprehensive all of government approach. near-term, we are focused on protecting personnel on the ground and in iraq, including staff, while addressing the humanitarian crisis isil has created. our military is taking the fight to isil. we have conducted more than 100 and 20 airstrikes in support of iraqi security forces, and

provided the necessary force to allow these forces to regain infrastructure. because of successes of these strikes, isil is moving on and moving territory. these measures by an iraqi and u.s. forces have revealed isil is vulnerable to coordinated and effective military action. to zapike had begun momentum and gain space for kurdish forces to gain momentum. the u.s. and its allies have provided over one million pounds to survive, including food and water to populations under siege by isil. averteps have helped to humanitarian crisis is -- crisis es.ed -- tracy'

humanitarian aid must be part of a broader -- over -- here at home. ofh a clear eyed assessment the threat isil poses inside and outside the region, we're implementing a comprehensive strategy that calls for a global coalition, using all tools, diplomatic, military, intelligence, law enforcement, to in -- to defeat the group. only the government iraq that is representative of all iraqis will unite the country. we have concentrated on working with iraqis to ensure the new iraqi government stands for all iraqis. this will reduce tensions throughout the region not just iraq and indicates a marginalized sunnis that there is an alternative. >> iraqis

have made progress to this goal in recent weeks naming a new prime minister. the strategy requires regional and international partners. some nations will provide military assistance. direct and indirect. others will provide humanitarian assistance. the effort is underway in iraq where others have joined with us in providing humanitarian aid and military assistance. this week at the nato summit, secretary john kerry and hagel will meet with counterparts to enlist the broadest possible assistance and then both secretaries will travel in the middle east. country can support the horrors perpetrated by isil and no civilized country should shirk its responsibility. a broad international consensus will provide the foundation for a concerted action to achieve a number of objectives. we will continue to take direct action unilaterally with our

partners. isil's capacity to wage war and diminished control in iraq and syria. we are continuing our support for iraq moderate and for syrian opposition. next, we will counter isil's extremist messaging campaign by working with partners to emphasize battlefield successes of our iraqi and kurdish forces and to highlight the atrocity and the grave threat the troop poses to our iraqi sunnis. finally, we will continue to enhance our intelligence collection within the region and will build on an established security measure here at home to combat any threat we see. this includes working to -- to stem the flow here in iraq. our attention is concentrated on the security crises in both iraq and syria and rightly so.

and other groups operating in syria threaten our people and our interests in the region and, left unchecked, they will seek to carry out attacks closer to home. no terrorist group is invincible. the slaughter of tens of thousands of innocent syrians and iraqi civilians has shocked and united all civilized people for the barbaric murders of two american journalists and an attack has demonstrated these terrorist threats are not confined to one part of the globe. the president has set -- has said the u.s. will continue to do what ever is necessary to .rotect at home and abroad we work with our partners in the region and allies over the long term to bring peace and security to a chaotic heart of the world. thank you very much gorelick forward our discussion. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute]

>> thank you very much for that hystericaland description of the threat that we face today. you started in belgium. i would like to go back to belgium. i listened to what you said. you are portraying an which hason followers, sympathizers, and some cell structure in europe. if i would compare that to al qaeda in 1999-2000, when we knew it had a pretty well-developed cell structure in europe and asia, and,outheast as we now know, in the united states of america, what i'm hearing from you is we are not past that level of acute threat today but we could be there. is of whereir summary

we're standing today? let's that is a useful point of comparison. you are spot on in saying we are certainly not there. isil is not al qaeda pre-9/11. think we are also not as a country and as a counterterrorism community here, but also across europe, we are not where we were in pre-9/11. we are so much better postured in so many ways to see, detect, stop any type of attack like we saw on 9/11. concern and i highlighted this, the number of europeans who travel to syria. certainly some of them, perhaps many, have joined forces with isil. they're the ones returning home. that is the model we are most concerned about, and it is highlighted by what we saw in the judicial museum in brussels.

, possibly acting atits own, possibly acting isil's direction. a smaller scale type of attack, brutal and lethal, but nothing like a 9/11 scale attack. thought a queue was capable of at that time. that is an important point of comparison. arrows --nd endless hours reading propaganda. also, your intelligence collection. from looking at the propaganda and the whole terror threat to ensure you have, do you have any doubt about their long-term intentions, vis-à-vis both europe and more importantly american homeland? we do spend a lot of time reviewing their propaganda and information we are able to glean that is not part of what is in the open source is, i think yes,

there is no doubt in our view that that is have the old really see us. they ultimately see us as a strategic threat and one, as they publicly stated, they will inevitably confront. i do think at some point in time, allowed to proceed on the path they are on, left unchecked, they would turn their sites more to the west and potentially to the united states. organizationf this is a very mysterious figure. literally meaning he is a descendent of the prophet mohammed. if anything he says is true. do you feel the american intelligence community has a solid handle on who this guy is, where he comes from, what his ideology is, or is this still a work in progress? >> we have a pretty good sense.

i do think that your characterization of him as somewhat shadowy is absolutely fair. publicnot struck a persona in the way others have. their other members of the group that have a large public persona. we spend a fair amount of time in the broader community learning what we possibly can about him. >> do you think he comes from the same ideological bent as our colleague and bin laden? the level of violence, the him in thatuts category. >> i do think he shares that ideology, both in terms of the level of violence and, ultimately, grandiose aspirations he has set forth. so yes, i would put him in the same category. isil has set itself on a path

apart from the rest of al qaeda and in part based on their disagreement with the tactics. and the approach. is more about means. with respect to ends, they share the same ideology. >> to emphasize that isil or isis or whatever you a to call is part of a broader transformation, let's call it al qaeda is him, in the last couple of years. in that context, how worried are ,ou that the old al qaeda core perhaps with new leaders coming in, is poised to view resurrected and research as the united states and nato, who draw forces from afghanistan and pakistan? of seeing anger

repeat of what has happened in iraq or al qaeda in iraq? we thought it was, if not destroy, at least on the back foot, resurrecting itself with al qaeda for or al qaeda core like groups? >> we are obviously vigilant in possibility and working closely with afghan security forces, as well as other partners in the region. to continue to maintain the pressure we have been able to place on al qaeda to ensure that does not happen. i am confident we will take steps necessary to prevent anything like that type of resurgence of al qaeda in that part of the world. >> i will press you a little bit here there is a difference between taking it seriously, and this is notd that

the 2014 threat, but the 2017 threat. >> right. it is fair to press me on that point. part of my job is to be worried about these things. i have all the gray hair that i have and that is why. comforted when i see the work that goes on, so i will go back to that point, that we're going to take the steps we need to take to make sure that whether it is 2014 or 2017, we do not see that type of insurgents. the president made a number of speeches where he has talked about this, and what i talked about in terms of diffusion and decentralization of the threat. we need to be steely eyed about the threat, where it comes up,

where it rises to a level of threat to the kind of the u.s., whether our interests in the region or here at home, that we will do whatever is necessary to disrupt and defeat that threat. secretary kerry and secretary hagel and how going to the middle east after spending the weekend in wales, the question i am constantly asked by people, and you hear it on talk shows everywhere, is, where are our muslim allies? people we fighting these and the common american perception is, many of our allies are taking a lackadaisical approach. most often heard with regard to saudi arabia. anyout compromising intelligence collection activity, how would you characterize how our muslim allies, and you can name names if you want or say they, are

working with -- shout out the ones who helped the most and be quiet about this. the countriesows we work so closely with in the region, and i mentioned areas where i think it begins with a threat. you look at the areas, the countries threatened by the rise of isil. obviously, lebanon, jordan, turkey, and, increasingly, others, saudi arabia. these are countries we are closely allied with and are both openly and less openly, to take on this threat. results ofard to the what is happening at the nato summit and then further diplomatic efforts, more in the purview of the secretary of state and the secretary of defense, to build those partnerships and form this coalition.

i think there is every reason to believe based on what is happened so far, that it will coalesce. >> i mentioned in introducing you that you worked on gone, no -- one, no -- guantánamo. to see american stressed to look like guantánamo prisoners. looking back, how damaging has it been, how damaging is it still today, that the guantánamo facility six years after president obama called for it to be shut is still our overall effort to counter overall efforts? >> there is no doubt that, first, it is important to note our view that there is no group as successful and effective as isl is at using propaganda, particularly using social media.

they outpaced any others in how they used the internet to spread their message. as we have seen in the past, part of that is the guantánamo imagery. that, along with a number of other tools, are things that they turn to, or messages they turn to, to try to spread their message and radicalize others. i do think it is important to say here, there should be no equivalency and we should reject any sense of it between what we and ourhose videos country's policies. i want to make sure that is clear. time, we are working hard in support of the president's goal to" guantanamo. we are with the rest of the community, part of that effort. >> you have been doing this for

some time and you mentioned in your talk that not only is the threat transform, but we are transformed. the national counterterrorism , actually set up derived from an earlier effort, but we do not need to go into chronology and bureaucracy here, to connect the dots. we felt after september 11, we knew after september 11, information was not properly start -- shared. -- at how the nt u.s. government more broadly functions, how would you characterize for americans the level at which we are now connecting the dots, bringing the information together, and really making sure we do not of data slipeces through the >> as they did before september 11? >> that is a soft ball. thank you. i appreciate that. we thing to point out is

were, just last week, celebrating our 10th anniversary. we were -- an executive order in august of 2004 and then codified in the intelligence reform act later that year. , ayears of history relatively young organization. but really reflective of the overall counterterrorism community and the level of collaboration within this community, the level of information sharing, it stands as a model for the rest of the government in how we work. the imperative of 9/11 gave us the momentum to break down barriers to sharing information and we basically have been working that since 2001 and certainly since we were created in 2004. more concretely, there are real examples of the government working together in ways that are hard to imagine. i would point to the captures

earlier this year. where the intelligence community, working with military forces, working with the law enforcement community, these individuals are now facing justice. a longtime al qaeda operative indicted for his role in the bombings,998 embassy and another charged with his role in benghazi. a seamlessxamples of counterterrorism effort where intelligence, military, law enforcement, all working coordinated. all in a way, it is hard to imagine any other country being able to pull off something like that. it is something i am particularly proud of, as we see the small part in supporting that. but again, we are exemplifying the level of collaboration and

coordination within the u.s. government counterterrorism community. >> we have given you one chance at a softball so we will go to a hardball. please identify yourself and make it a question and not a speech. >> thank you. i am from the is -- the atlantic council. two questions. is it possible to defeat or even isis whilely degrade assad remains at least in .ominal control in syria what is the role in i ran -- in iran to help united states defeat what is a mutual threat. thank you. question, it absolutely is, without regards to the question of assad. it is absolutely possible to and defeat isil,

particularly over the long run. it will take time. part of that will mean working to secure a political transition in syria. as long as assad is in that a role with no legitimacy in his own country, we have seen syria is a magnet , which obviously complicates the security picture from our perspective, but provides resources and support for isil, and other groups. part of the broader strategy over the long term is a political transition in syria. respect to the second question, with respect to iran's iraq --iraq, obviously, ironic has interest in that

region as well, it is a neighbor. i will not say much more about iran's role. >> i work for the bbc. i was wondering if you could the a little bit about homegrown president. americans joining the fight in syria. i am particularly wondering about radical preachers, how you're dealing with them now, and whether it is different now. also how you compare it to have the uk's handling the problem. click the u.k. raised its threat level. they have a different system than we do for that particular question. the threat level question. i mentioned we think over 100 americans traveled to syria. of thoseknow how many have joined isil. we think 100 have gone to join syrian opposition and effort. many of those, we think, have

joined extremist groups. the united in kingdom is substantially more significant in terms of numbers. the prime minister mentioned as many as 500 in his remarks last week. the situations are similar. the situation is more pronounced. about foreign fighters traveling to those countries and then returning home. that is largely a consequence of the geographic proximity of the u.k. to syria and the ease with which one can travel there. we're doing a number of things. if he i has a lead on this with causingderstand what is folks in the united states the desire to go to syria. it is part of a broader strategy . we have seen this in the past with individuals desiring to go to places like somalia.

certainly, the u.k. has this as well, with the number of individual seeking to go to pakistan and other places. we work really closely with the u.k. understanding the nature of that radicalization process and the kinds of steps we can take from a law enforcement perspective, to stem that flow. here in the united states, we have tools. the fbi has the lead here. when we see someone who committed a crime, being able to arrest them before they go. >> thank you very much. i write to the mitchell report and i want to come back and ask the flip side of a question --ised polls -- bruce holst bruce posed earlier. back where we were in 9/11,

2001. i want to ask this question. you talked about what the motivating factors of americans joining isil might be. it possible, and, do we have a way of analyzing, if not measuring, the extent to which inrica's staying in the game these countries? and the so-called collateral damage in particular. isil than it is eradicating? and doing so, multigenerational fo --tigenerational h

moats -- multigenerationally? doing have a choice? -- do we have a choice? >> one of the ways i would answer the question is to refer back to the work that has been done over the last couple of years by the it ministration, by the president, to set our efforts, our direct action legal policy sound with key points that we will take action only when there is a continuing in a ,inute threat to u.s. persons and one that is enduring, that will be in place for the foreseeable future. and that is dedicated to limiting any harm to noncombatants. this is the way we have

announced the approach. and that we could hold out to the rest of the world to show it is one that i think addresses the concerns you raised. at the end of the day, the president has again made clear that where there are continuing an imminent risks or threats to u.s. people, to americans, and to answer that last part of your question, the choice is to take the action that is necessary to stop those threats. again, i think you have seen that level of aggressiveness from the counterterrorism community, whether it is in situations i mentioned where we captured individuals because, where we can, we have taken that step. we have captured individuals, even in dangerous missions like that, where we have been aggressive, certainly as has been announced this past summer, where we sought to rescue, unfortunately not to -- not

successfully, to rescue hostages in syria. where we need to be aggressive and assertive, we will be. but the counterterrorism policies for direction -- direct action are on a footing that we can hold out as being and legal and sustainable over the long term. >> to those of you who came early and get in the front, you get a benefit from my inability to see anything more than 10 feet away. >> thank you for being here. simply put, terrorism as a global phenomenon is fed by recruit. feel disenfranchised, discriminated against, and economically stifled. they are infinitely susceptible to propaganda promising prestige and a paycheck. could you comment more on the propaganda countermeasures being implemented, with or without international partners, to fight,the allure of this

as well as economic impact of these states, where recruitment is high, that could bolster communication efforts? >> a very good question. obviously, as you look across these areas i mentioned when i went through this around the world description of the types of threats we are concerned about, one of the common themes we see in these countries is not only a lack of governance and lack of security, the problems more deep-seated than that in terms of economic opportunity, educational opportunities. really deep-seated socioeconomic problems that are certainly the conditions that give rise to basically young man with little hope, little future, turning to radical and in some cases, ultimately violent extremism behavior. so, there is a broad array of things that need to be done that go far beyond the remit of nt tc

and these are long-term systemic concerns working with the rest of our allies, regional partners, to address and largely work down through the state department as well, and in some cases, the defense department, to address. an answer to your question. the first part -- the first part of your question is about counter messaging. one of things we do is analyze the nature of message our adversaries are putting out. what messages are they using? why do they think these resonate and do they? if so, in what ways and with whom? informationde that to other elements of the government, particularly the state department, having a more outward facing role helping to push back on that message through diplomatic and strategic medications. we would not be the ones to actually send out that message.

we help analyze it and understand it the help inform anse are fossil in shaping image in the u.s. and shaping a counter message that would be effective. >> i want to build on the question little bit here in 2000 and 2001, we were dealing with the failed state in afghanistan and repercussions. the failed states now going by the half-dozen, we have got serious, iraq, failed or failing. libya, which is barely a country anymore. yemen, a prime candidate to move up into the dubious category. nigeria, if iern look at it, the resources of the counterterrorism committee of the united states are now being asked to be stretched very far and wide. how do we figure out what the priorities are and how do we ron does notal hi

load trade next week, because they have the essential to do so, but we do not have the resources focus on strategic thinking. >> an important part of what we do and essential question. as we look across the middle east and north africa, we see all these countries that are in some sense not being affected -- effective at governing. we see terrorist groups take advantage of insurgencies. 11, more or less, but that is about where we see the number of countries where terrorist groups are taking advantage of insurgencies. and prioritizing and understanding what is happening in these countries, so that we can allocate limited resources a centraly, it is --

challenge for us. the president talked about this at west point and on other occasions, where he pointed out we have to work with our partners and build up the capabilities of some of these countries and seek to develop solutions beyond the u.s., going and militarily. across these countries, i think the key for me is to be very precise and careful about identifying the level of threat they pose, that the groups pose and operate. not just putting all of these groups on the same plane. vicious as heras rom has been, we do not see that posing a threat to us here in the united states, or even now really having an agenda to do so. that does not mean that may not change. but right now, it is not core al qaeda.

,he groups operating in libya brutal, militias, certainly, the terrorist attack in benghazi was a significant attack. do not necessarily put those individuals on the same plane as we do core al qaeda. the challenge is prioritizing, being clear about the threat, being steely eyed about where we to put our limited resources, and then, making a really concerted effort to build capacity and international coalitions to do with these problems. >> we are getting close to the witching hour, so i will take three questions, starting here, and then write their, and then the gentleman back there. hopefully, we will have time for one more round. >> thank you.

i am from brookings. my question is to take you back to syria. during your remarks, you talked about the importance of working with the government as a strategy for iraq. during the q and a, you mentioned political transformation. assad has showed his staying power and -- over and over again. what is the short-term strategy for the u.s. to a dress threats you identified with respect to syria? , isl hasf it is to say now changed the ballgame with respect to the border. there's really not a border between iraq and syria. when we look at this as a challenge, we look at both countries. the short-term strategy has been, as i discussed, to protect americans in iraq.

those in diplomatic facilities, particularly in baghdad, and then to help avert humanitarian crises we saw beginning to form in a number of places. that is a short-term strategy. the longer-term strategy is to build an international coalition that will build all the tools we have to bear on the problem and that includes beginning with more inclusive governments in iraq and we made strong progress there under a new prime minister , but then over the longer term, it includes a transition in that will government be inclusive as well. that is a long-term proposition. that will require a concerted diplomatic effort by not just the united states, but particularly countries in the region. >> we will take three. one right here. >> with fox news, my question relates to threats you talked

about, foreign fighters going to syria and the region and bringing their skills back home. any that in mind, are there cells in the united states, whether it is people who have come back and flew under the radar, or people who remained behind as some organizational support? what can you tell us about the second american from minneapolis who apparently worked at the airport? my questionart of is about the video yesterday. within a few hours of the video coming out, there were -- there were reports and isil pose on the twitter page or facebook page apologizing to their followers that the video was posted by mistake. could that be seen as sort of a fracturing within the organization and some kind of power struggle in terms of propaganda leadership and influence?

>> we will take two more. >> let me go ahead and answer the question or are you saying, we save those for later? life this will be the last round. those twonot remember questions. let me quickly answer. i would answer the first part. the second two parts, it is more in the range of speculation, so i will not touch those. no indication at this point of a fightersoreign operating in the united states. . . we are mindful and vigilant about the possibility of individuals, more likely on back own, 1, 2, coming from syria. we have seen that model in toope. there is every reason be concerned about that as a potential, not happening now, but a potential in the united states. clear, we are

working very hard, fbi, department of homeland security, along with particularly european partners, to understand who those individuals are, to track their movement, and to be in a position to disrupt any violent activities they might engage in. >> has there been any -- does isil have any objectives against israel? have they attempted any actions or, is for some reason israel off their radar screen? >> i sit here and i am trying to think if there has been any indication along those lines of attacks against israel. anything --nking of nothing comes to mind in response to your question. given everything we know about that part of the world --

i am not aware of anything in particular. >> very last question. >> thank you very much. broadcast to pakistan and broader regions. this morning, there were reports from the region that isil had to the propaganda. and the border regions and pete getting them off the posters in the back of the car. my question is the background i started reaching out and experts are believing some of the taliban groups may have been alive. to much is this a concern the united states, particularly when they want stabilizing?

>> can i broaden that a little bit? you said of baghdad he and and islamic state are now trying to be the new al qaeda, how much indication do you see that out there in lebanon, libya, message ishat starting to resonate. we're seeing an alignment with the united states. have seen individuals, including influential individuals within some of the either oft state some casesnce or in more affinity for the successes that they have had and tactics. situation.ynamic the competition and a queue on

the other. a concern we have that perhaps to demonstrate they are the leader they would seek to carry that wouldck establish bona fide. very dynamic situation. i go back to the propaganda points. we focus on the english language propaganda but they are using propaganda and a range of languages across the region. it is not just focused on u.s. or western audiences. obviously an area of grave concern for us so we are watching the situation very closely. lex thank you very much. is to be ahe prize local jihadist group and attack the homeland. i want to thank you for coming us a serious and balanced assessment.

because mr. olson is a very busy person, and i ask all of you tuesday in your seats while he and i try to slip out the back or? >> thank you very much. [applause]

what's going on, we are talking about suppression. we talk about the standard processes that are utilized to make sure that the truth does not get out. we've seen all those playing out in ferguson, missouri. when you walk into american icons like the mcdonald hamburger store and you arrest the reporter from "the washington post" and "the huffington post," while they're charging their computers to report on the story, when that's going on, you know suppression is under way. so, when we see what's happening with police officers that are actually defending other police officers, you know there's a problem. that's like saying to me, well, my taxes aren't being done right. i would say to the federal government, i appreciate you