that's been unlocked, instituti constitutional reform across the kingdom. an english parliament, whatever the people of england themselves want. it unlocks reform to the house of lords and maybe even the house of commons. >> for all those english and welsh people watching tonight, don't think this is not about you. you're about to see a tsunami of political change as a result of what is happening in scotland here tonight. >> we unlock the door for themselves to decide what they want to do. that's what democracy is all about. >> when i was talking to alex a week ago, he said after this campaign, if his side won, there would be no more team no, team yes. there would be team scotland and that you would be a member of that team. >> this was classic alex. kicking up dust. talking about the process. political equivalent of fantasy, a fruit bowl, which really, just

serves to detract staengs taengs that they had no real answers. >> i would never accuse the secretary of state of kicking up dust. would you be a member of team scotland? >> no. i already am a member of team scotland. i have always been. that is the job i do. scotland's voice on the table. >> but you wouldn't necessarily be a member of alex's team. >> one irremark that i made and seemed to read an awful lot into it. the suggestion i'm going to become part of team salmon would be a sad proposition to swallow. >> one final question. you rep raunt auckland and if -- with their massive oil reserves

and fishing stocks and so forth might duoat it alone by themselves. >> what we've seen in the last few weeks has been a quite remarkable degree of arrogance coming from the nationalists of the position of the island communities. they have told us we have no more rights to have a discussion, than any other -- in glasgow. that is a fundamental lack of respect to understanding of how scotland's island communities work and what i have seen to be and i've seen it countless times over the year is that if we ever decide to have that conversation for ourselves, then we are quite entitled to do that and alex and any other nationalist is in no position to stop us. >> and to be clear, this wouldn't be -- would be choosing to join the rest of the u.k. >> all we're talking about here is the right of our community to have a discussion for ourselves

at any time. we've already had a magnificent campaign in recent years where we've been talking to both the u-uk. and scottish government about giving powers ourselves because what we have seen, one of the unintended consequences of evolution has unloaded the nationalists to suck out responsibility from the community where it properly belongs to the center. he runs the most centralized government in recent mode. >> now, huw edwards had it quite right. i'm going to ask you gently how you're feeling. optimistic, a bit of a cold sweat? >> it's been a two-year campaign. there have been ups and downs in the in every state. tonight, it's a mixture of excitement, nervousness.

we're now in a position where we're powerless to alter the result in nany way. the people have spoken. >> very few unbitten fingernails left in scotland. thank you very much. back with you in the studio. >> thank you very much. and thank you to mr. carmichael, too. and interest there -- he's already talking about a no quote votto and a federal structure that follows if england desires it and wales and northern ireland, too. >> it's now up to the english, he said, to have the debate that scots have had. if it's a no vote, the prime minister will spell that out within hours. i think as soon as this outcome of this referendum is clear and it's likely will emerge -- what the next moves he thinks are for

scotland. what the next moves are for what is often called the english question, be different as a result of more powers to the parliament and that broader question of devel, but to the english regions either as big cities, as the tribe, john prescott, the series of referendums that were lost. you'll see that come out. i think it's likely that after david cameron, you've had in a sense, nick clegg, so the notion of english political change, it's on the agenda from now. >> scott iish political change. we had three u.k. party leaders saying more power is is coming to scotland. chief secretary to the treasury. he say a no vote will be a recommitment, but they want

change. that this was a decision made now, not in the active union that joineded together. they're making it clear that change is on its way and that they will hold that promise. >> i still think a yes is possible. >> we knew if he wants to win this, he'd have to reach beyond. it's clear that has happened. what we don't know of course is what way that has gone and that's what we'll watch to see how that unfolds. not just possible, but confidence that -- attempted an actual question. i thought you had a report from john redwood and he clearly said that there is a conservative bad benches that is in demand for those same pi-- that have been

promised to scotland. insinuated there would be a reward. eight months away from the general election, the prime minister can't afford. expect or indeed, he can't come up with a revolt especially when he's trying to get into 10 downing street, so i don't think these powers will be coming at all. even the substantial ones we've been promised. >> do you trust the westminster leaders to deliver on what they've pledged? >> absolutely, and the leaders in scotland, too. the plans we drew up, the ones that have been adopted by westminster, that ones coming together with the delivery plan to make into a single offer that will be in the statute books in march so that we all go into a general election and people can vote on it and the legislature is ready to go as soon as that election happens. that was drawn up in scotland. we had a mission for the

conservatives. i think she's possibly not even keeping up with the debate in scotland, but nobody's seen what these powers are. we've had them on our website for months. you can see them on our website ch they're at the top there. we're very proud of them and all three parties came up with very similar offers. >> they're not completely the same, but they're very similar. the one thing we all agreed, shoot the -- it should income tax. i think some of my english colleagues are misunderstanding the difference between a block ground and the formula that calculates that. but i'm sure i'll be able to educate them. also, the further def aleutian of further powers as well. there is a difference between where we are going to live apart as democrats are going, but there's move for further change there and it's clear across scotland that the status quo has been smashed by this referendum. >> given that the states say has been smashed, i want to bring in

more of our friends because they've been waiting parablely in the studio with us. galen. in the front row. i think you're 17. can i ask which way you voted. >> i voted yes. >> and in a sentence, why? >> i just believe it will be the better situation for scotland. >> because lots of what we've heard from shetland in the campaign was to do a distance. was to do with remoteness. that is to say that you feeling edinburgh is remote and for that reason, feeling a degree of hostility. >> no, the government in westminster is quite remote, but more have a voice. >> did you take a -- or were you decided the start of the campaign? >> well, originally, before the campaign really took off.

quite heavily as well, but my history teacher at the time in school encouraging us to look into different political issues. i researched opposition at the time, which would have been yes. so i can counter it chblt i sort of trained myself to be a snapshot thing. it was a gradual way. >> what about your fellow 16, 17-year-olds getting the vote for the first time. what was your sense of their -- was there a consensus? >> they'd laugh me off and shove me into a corner of something, but in recent months, i've seen a lot of them that have now left school or still in school doing fifth, sixth year and coming out asking me questions. asking other people questions. having conversations in the streets. out and about, where ever.

>> evenly split or most in the yes count? >> from what i've seen, more snapshots i'm working most of the time, but from what i've seen, it's been 50-50 in my year. half saying yes, half saying no. >> nice to see you. you're from glasgow, aren't you? >> yes, i am. >> could i ask you how you voted? >> no. >> and again, in a sentence, first, why? >> the reason swhi that i am self-employed and i have concerns scotland could not be viable on its own economically. i tend to look in scotland, england, wales and northern ireland like america and see all the different countries like states and the states in america

have all got individual strength and power and on the basis of that, they stay as a united states of america and they are world leaders and that's the way i think is a way forward for the united kingdom. see each state, scotland, wales, northern ireland as states with senators like all the main party leaders and senators, but give them more strength where by that strength, united and move forward. >> we have our first official turnout figure. that is above the record, which was 81%. 89%. >> extraordinary. >> 88.6.

that is a remarkable result, isn't it? if that is replicated, i'm just thinking that would be sending shock waves throughout the entire electoral process. >> these are massive figures, but bear in mind what the backdrop of this is. steady declining participation in politics as a whole. turnouts in u.k. general elections in the 60s and people anxious it was going towards that 60 mark. to get towards 90% of people taking part is really extraordinary and bear in mind, those 90% of the 97% who were registered, which is a record. >> back to the audience, because you, you're from glasgow, which has been such a caldron in this campaign with lots of people saying that you know, the s&p is at an incredible efficient

strong campaign in glasgow. what's your sense of how that campaign has run itself? >> i think the yes campaign had strong attributes, but i think the yes campaign have had a good, strong leadership with the youth of this country and the youth of this country have been quite passionate about a yes vote and using their technology that is available nowadays. have pushed the yes vote to the front while the no vote, the low to strong, has not personified as the yes vote has ul unfortunately. >> thank you for that. we're going to go to a gentleman, peter stewart. thank you very much. you're a farmer? just tell us how you voted. >> i voted no. i think farmers and businessmen have things on their mind. market. 63 million potential customers in the whole of the u.k.

we've worked hard over the years. if we become in effect a foreign country, i think our produce will turn differently. the main supermarkets, the big supermarkets in england, the petition for shelf space, we will lose the peanut market. we will no longer be the same united family. we will be in the same position as other countries. currency has been a big factor. we just don't accept the -- there will be a currency union. we don't believe that for a second. a strong voice for westminster saying it's just not going to work. then the fiscal side of things if we have different taxation regimes, different spending criteria, you could see headquarters of major firms flipping back and forth, depending on what they think is a favorable fiscal situation.

so, i think the majority of farmers and businessmen have laid up to the north side. >> thank you very much. let's hold that for a second and i'll be back with you in a few moments. thank you in explaining the motivations. let's have a look at some of the counts still going on because clearly, 32 of them in full progress. and now, we have that real sense of the challenge for these people because if they are dealing with turnouts of these areas, can you imagine when it comes to some of these bigger authorities, they'll have big plans to sort through. final turnout. 84%. clak manager, one of the small authorities in a different part of scotland, obviously, that's an interesting place for us

because if that is turning at 89% of people taking part, we could be in for an interesting bit of a roller coaster ride, too. let's go to -- give us a sense of the process there. this stretches from -- to trenance into affluent areas and we have the first of the 96 ballot box coming in here just after 10:35. all were in by 11:00 and it looks like we might get some idea of a result aroundugñ9 abo

2:00. 95% of the coastal roots issued wereçñrñr returned, to we're t about some big record figures here. some indications that they are not expegting to win this year, but their language, even if it was a narrow margin, they would take some comfort for that. if that was replicated across scotland, that might give a yes a big base hit of a boost later in the evening. 90% of this area farmland and

it's a big area. lots of different constituencies and very mixed in terms of the make up of the council and a member of parliament here, who is -- so, it's a very difficult one to call here. but early indications, the new campaign is they are quietly confident that it may go their way. >> thank you very much for updating us and a hint there that the new campaign sounding quite confident. alex has been on social media. this has been a remarkable day. scotland's future truly is in scotla scotland's hands. that in echo of the rousing speech he gave in perth when he urged scottish voters to take their country's future into their hands. mr. sammond glued to the screen,

as i'm vur everyone else is and lots of interest, too, not just in europe and america, but in different parts of the united kingdom. certainly in wales where they are looking to see what the implications of a yes or no could be and the leader, le ann wood is at the center for us. what are you thoughts on what you've heard so far on what this could mean for wales. >> the whole event has provided a fantastic event for wales to get the settlement we need and deserve here. there's a consensus that the financial settlement we have, that the powers that we have here in wales are inadequate and this debate of course has been about where power lies. and we know that the power and wealth has been concentrated and centralized around the southeast and if there's a yes vote tonight, then that wealth and

power will be share d a little bit more equally throughout the country's of these islands. that we make sure our voice the heard and that we get the settlement we need out of this process. >> you said if it's a yes vote, if it's a no vote, we've heard the barnett formula will be retained for scotland. what are the implications for wales and what would you be saying in some talks about the future of governance of wales in the united kingdom? >> has been campaigning for many years, even more than a decade. loses out around 300 million pounds a year because of the way our funding is calculated and with the funding to scots that that barnett would remain, that

caused a problem for us here in wales. we need to make sure this process delivers the fair funding because we've been hit by the austerity politics by the westminster government and this 300 million pounds every year is giving us too much of a hedge, really. >> we'll see what the result is, but maybe we'll talk to you in the morning when we know what it is. thanks very much for joining us in cardiff and straight to belfast to mark davenport, our political editor there in northern ireland. your thoughts on the interest that northern ireland has in the outcome and we've already discussed a potential for a yes and no vote. let's say, just say at this stage, it's no vote. what would be the impb kags there in terms of northern ireland's governance? >> well, the immediate reprecussion will be less seismic than a yes vote, which

would put the states into the melting pot. if there's a no vote, they would have serious reprecussions because that would beg the question what extra power should be give p. top of the shopping list should be the notion of dissolving corporation tax. businesses compete with businesses south of the irish border. units are more skeptical about powers. >> mark davenport with his thoughts on the options there. we've been looking at the options in the event of a yes or not vote. nick, you wanted to come in? >> if there's a no, the party

leaders, this barnett sounds -- it is quite simply about amount of spending. instantly. a conflict that's going on between what's been promised in order to try and win this referendum here in scotland and what is acceptable to people in wales. >> what's your thought on the way that argument's developing because of course, if you look at again and stressing it's early, if you look at the potential for a no vote. >> if there is a no vote, there would be a substantial number to stay scotland should be an independent country. when the s&p stood in the 1992

election, their slogan was free by '94 3i9 and they were laughed at. he was far too young to be involved in the '92 election, but they were a laughing stock and returned three to the westminster. the government of scotland, they have had this referendum. that's a journey you can't go back from. unless substantial change follows, there will be problems to come. >> let's think for a second. i'll get to ruth in a moment. let's just explore maybe a little more. in other parts of the u.k., we've heard from belfast, wales. let's go to -- again. >> really interesting looking at the attitudes to independence. let's start with scotland.

this question, how should scotland be governed. going back 15 years or so and see how they changed. here, we have 15 years ago, deevolution was the main answer given by the vast majority oof people here. very few people saying no parliament at all so, the pink line does say nothing is needed goes up. as time goes on here, you can see gradually demands for independence increase and we get to 2005. actually, they seem to have swayed demands a bit and deevolution becomes by far the pref preferred. get to the end, now close to the independent's referendum and you see the line progressing. from start to finish with independents coming down and

back up. just from last september, let's have a look at what happened here. you start with the parliament ending in the place, the last draft left and let's have a look. the yes vote on 31% and don't knows on 18. then these polls show the no vote holding roughly steady, but a yes vote is showing that it's got a lot of potential to rise here. now, you get to just through the summer here, july, august, there's still 50%, the no vote. still looking like the no vote is going to win, then you get this electrifying moment where the polls suddenly snap together like that. 46-44. anyone's guess what the result is is. that's why the timing of the referendum from the nationalist vote -- attitudes of other parts of the country, wales, northern ireland and england.

let's have a look now at this question. how do you think scotland should be going? these are now english views. so, i'll bring this graph on. again, going back to about 15 years. deevolution is by far the biggest answer to that. nearly two-thirds of people. not many people in england saying no parliament. most people saying it's the answer. again, you have the s&p and then the minority and majority government, independent starts to come up. people start to think that is the next step. there are also people getting more cheesed off in england sayinging no parliament at all. then by the end of this graph, english attitudes, the scottish independents, people start to come back with the idea well, maybe it's the thing. people being put off independents in england possibly sult of the last month or two, six months of campaigning.

thinking it's the only answer. that's england. now, again, you can see differences between england and scotland ch this question, compared with other part of the u.k., how much government spending does scotland get? some thinki ining they get a fa share. some think scotland gets more than it should. let's just watch this graph. the less people say scotland doesn't get enough starts to come down, those who say scotland gets a fair share starts to come up and again, this could be related to hollywood, to the s&p coming into power in -- and starting to convince voters that actually these in scotland with working better for very few. the pink line here, very few scots saying scotland gets more than it should. move the graph on.

here we go. you see again, they're saying scotland getting a fair share, those saying it gets -- there's a level of dissatisfaction in scotland. if you look at the -- it's interesting. compared with other parts of the u.k., how much spending. it's almost reverse. and you can see most people saying fair share. gradually, english voters tart tog think they're getting too much. as a result, possibly of deevolution, english voters saying scotland is getting too much money. then how dramatic is that? more and more english voters say scotland gets too much money. those saying it gets a fair

share coming down here. look at the blue line. the leading line this scotland. these are people in england who think scotland doesn't get enough so, by the end, it comes together at the end partly because of the referendum debate. the thrust is that the at constitute of spending in scotland, if you compare scottish answers and english answers is very, very different. >> thank you very much. back we come to guests in the studio and before we pick up on those interests attitudes, some more news we're getting in. >> this is isn't a result, but we're better together, saying the result is tight, but they think with possible votes throwing in, that -- will win

comfortably. you might say better together would say that, but they haven't been saying that about -- that would be quite surprising. you might have thought that was an area more likely to vote yes. it has a very interesting political history. this is where dennis was at westminster mp for years and years, labor mp. trying to stand as a labor msp. by the layuper party, so he stood against the labor candidate as an independence. he got the biggest majority in the scottish parliament and where is he now, he's the chair of the campaign. former labor mp who's made the journey towards yes. you might have expected that quite a few people would have gone with him. been voting iing and s&p in hollywood elections recently. if better together are right and if they think there is a comfortable win for the no camp, that would be a very interesting result. >> what do you make of that?

>> the intelligence we're getting is in those die hard areas. the yes campaign is starting to > would you expect to win -- >> i don't think we expect everything. now that we have thrown everything at it and we wait to see the result when it's declared. >> on that. >> i think they would need to win seats. looks like that no might have just lost out in north

longshire. it's a much bigger constituency, more people in it than fulcrum has. looks like the 59-4 yes. that's dispoiappointing to me. i want to win them all. what's really coming across here is that there has been a titanic campaign between primarily the s&p and the labor party for the west central scotland votes and from -- actually, the vote for no has held much stronger. i think that's been replicated. i took a pollsters earlier, but one of the things that a lot of them did was try to marry out voti voting intentions with how they're going to vote this time around. in every poll i have seen over

two and a half years, well over 90% of voters are voting no. we may have the tools to keep the union together here. >> we've just alex had apparently canceled his visit to his local cant. he's still planning to travel to edinburgh on friday where the final result will be declared, but the spokesman says he's no longer planning to turn up. >> i think you can read in quite a lot. those sorts of decisions about where people are placed, significant. remember the symbolism. both will be seep as important in adding votes up in each column. >> the traditional labor

heartlands and the significance to which they have switched. let's pause for a second. you may be leaving us, but it's been nice to have you. thank you very much. we're going to just take a little pause and catch up with a later summary of the news. >> hello, i'm carol walker. the polls have closed and counting is underway in the scottish independence referendum. new exit polls were conducted during the historic ballot. the survey has predicted the no camp is on 44% compared to 46% for the yes campaign. the final result is expected shortly after 6:00 in the morning. chris mason reports. ♪ >> it might not be the tone you're used to or in the right country, but this scottish statue of liberty is going to be the jest for independence and

yes, a lot of -- >> today, we've got the whole assembly hall because there's so many people coming in to vote. tas once in a lifetime opportunity. to take scotland's future and into scotland's hands. >> here, the ballot boxes arrive in glasgow. meanwhile, down the road, the adding up has begun and who success people couldn't care less about politics? turnout is expected to be huge. those hoping scotland will remain part of the u.k., the no campaign, say a no vote tonight would be just the beginning. >> the no vote finishes the job of deevolution. it finishes the areas, to rebalance.

>> very unbalanced system. >> and that then unlocks constitutional reform across the whole of the united kingdom. unlocks an english parliament or regional assemblies or whatever the people of england themselves want. >> an opinion poll done after people had voted, suggested scotland will vote no. because only one poll counts and that's the actual one and so far, no real results yet. might have gone midnight, but this is just the warm up. >> a new video has been released which appears to show a british journalist being held captive by islamic state extremists. he was captured by while working as a newspaper journalist. in the latest footage, he is seen sitting behind a desk, dressed in orange clothes, delivering a scripted speech to camera. united states senate has approved president obama's plan

to train syrian rebels to fight islamic state militants. it's part of washington's campaign to fight the group, which has taken control of the group across syria and iraq. speaking afterwards, president obama welcomed the senate vote and praised france for its decision to join air strikes against islamic state in iraq. detectives in london investigating the disappearance of alex gross have named a latvian builder as the prime suspect. police say he had served a prison sentence in latvia for murdering his wife. he was missing a week after 14-year-old alice disappeared in late august. the schoolgirl was last seen on the path that he used to get to work. police in thailand say they still haven't identified any suspects in the hunt for the killer or killers of two british tourists. the bodies of hannah and david

miller were found on a beach on the island on monday. also today, thailand's prime minister apologized for suggesting it's unsafe for female tourists to wear bikinis. the comments were criticized as insensitive. back to scotland decides. welcome back. in a moment, we'll have a look at some of the counts and talk to some of our colleagues there. i'm told the turnout in -- is 89%. pretty record turnout all around. let's go to andrew neil. >> we've been told that the queen is to make a written statement this afternoon. because what she says will depend on the result and the

message is in the westminster consensus. it's that no has won. now, they may be in for a rude shock when the results come in, but that is the basis and they're working out what they do next. i'm joined by constitution alex pert, peter hennessee and kate williams. even if it is a no vote, we are on the brink of a constitutional upheaval. >> shortly after first light, the light will be scored across the history f of these islands and even if we are staying together, we will be a different country, the other side of that line because of the effects of the scottish campaign, the scottish question dominating. the english question, there's hardly been rumbling, but it's soon going to pick up a roar and there have been a lot of england arrives. we heard it with john redwood and diane abbott discussing with

you and it's fascinating, the news about the queen. they've never had to face anything like this. there's a choreography to elections, when the new prime minister, it's quite plain goes to kiss hands and so on with the well rehearsed spontaneity and the rest of it. there is no precedent for this, so it's interesting the queen is going to put out a written statement this afternoon because i can't think of any parallel. >> the issue would seem to me there is going to be substantial english dimension. if england is going to speak as well as northern ireland and wales, i don't for the life of me see how the government can keep to the gordon brown timetable that the deal for scotland will be in place by the election. >> i think this is a big question, isn't it? the english view of this. we've talked about the united kingdom. i mean, this is the end of the united kingdom as we know it and

this is a big part for the english as well and if there's a yes vote, it changes so much about the united kingdom. even basic thing like the flag and it dramatically changes the queen's role and simply, the timetable is incredibly tight. i can't see how if it's a yes vote because there's been so little planning already. >> on the labor and conservative side, for any move to be seen in the context of an overall u.k. constitutional convention. >> we have a habit of doing things in slices. we have an aversion for some reason to look at our own government as a system. same way -- but we're also looking at the effects of england, wales is also on the track for deevolution, the

so-called silk two proposals and northern ireland, which is a special case. what we need is a royal commission or convention to look at the whole. it would be absurd to rush it. >> you can't do home rule by may of next year. >> exactly. constitutions have to be carefully constructed so they endure and bring both stability and predictability. and this, to be a bit unkind to the three party leaders. i can understand why they've rushed to do it. classic tommy cooper. just like that. >> just a few seconds, was the queen right to stay out unlike the deevolution debate? >> definitely. she was right on so many levels. the neutrality has increased a lot since 1977. if a yes vote goes through, she will be the monarch of scotland and that's going to compromise her permission and of course, encourage the referendum on the

monarchy that some, not alex hamid, but others have talked about being part of an independent scotland. >> the debates in scotland, in ten seconds, it moves here. >> indeed, it should do from first light this morning. >> well, first light is still a little while away. but i thank you both. back to scotland decides. k. >> we're certainly hoping for results before first light, for goodness sake. we've already had a hint from full kirk, where the no campaign were making very confident noises. i mentioned the smallest local authority in central scotland, just under 40,000, they're in a race, really, with all probably to get the first declaration out and correspondent there is jamie mcguyver.

what is your sense of the count then? >> the count here is making very fast progress, indeed. relatively early because being such a small county, it didn't take long for the ballot boxes to arrive here. some would have predicted it was the most likely place in scotland to vote yes, but talking to some of the people here, i think it's safe to say that the better together campaigners here perhaps looking a bit relieved at some of the yes scotland campaigners here just more anxious than you might have expected. this place not following quite the script that might have been written beforehand, but expect the result here at 2:00 are going to be watched closely across scotland because if the script some written is to be believed, if it's a no vote here, it would appear to the

scotland. >> just a quick look. any sense that the declaration is near or any sense of timing there? some sense of timing. picking up that the declaration may become before 2:00. maybe just a bit earlier than we expected. >> i wish we could say we were smiling, but thank you very much. if it's 2:00, i think the it's fair enough to say they probably will win that race. i'm delighted to say that better together, no, i'm delighted to say margaret and patrick are with us. thank you very much. good to have you with us. what i meant to say is that better together is saying something about south asher. >> they say the early signs are positive and much the same way we heard from jamie. very much in the middle.

and of where the predictions would be as to how it was going to tall, so it will be interesting to see how that one goes. older pop lag v:dwq a lot of retirees and traditionally, the older 65s have been reluctant to vote yes. that's the one group that yes scotland haven't really managed to reach. saying it looks positive for them, which could be an indicator of how the night will go. >> that's west of glasgow is heading for 88%. so, on that note, that benchmark, a remarkable benchmark in the democratic process, really, this enormous turnout. what is your sense of how things are going at the moment? >> it's remarkable. it's interesting that the pattern seems to be that the side of the argument seems more upbeat.ç

don't have a say some of undecides were coming more to that side. also think that voters have a real safe responsibility. and that sometimes weight on the shoulders quite a bit. the implications of this. they knew once in a generation if not more and to ignore these implications for themselves. you often hear that from doorstep. >> your perspective? let's look at that. it's clearly the highest turnout since the post war generation. if it's up to beyond 85%, it's the highest turnout in the age of modern democracy.

the opportunity to challenge what is in many people's eyes, a broken economic system broken system that no longer works in the interest of people. people in scotland have been channelling that anger about a broken political system into something positive during this campaign. if it's a yes vote we have a path forward for that. defining a written constitution, managing the transition to an independent country. if it's a no vote it becomes much more challenging but still vital to capture the energy and to make sure we can build alliances with people. elsewhere in the islands who share the anger. many of whom haven't been turning out to vote in any elections. they see a political system not representative of them and certainly not serving the interest of the common good. >> politicians across britain, across the world will be looking

at the turn out and wondering how to replicate it, get people to turn out to vote. it's the enormity of the question. the significance of the vote. this campaign has been different from a general election and t the -- voters have been talking to each other. they have been doing it on social media which is new. they have been doing it in town halls, shops, meetings. hundreds, thousands of people turning out every night, not to listen to elected mps. people talking to each other. grassroots campaigners getting up and a conversation between voters cut some of the traditional media out and a lot of oh elected politicians ott. that's one of the reasons people are engaged. >> i know this is not the easiest question. what's your sense. we have heard from a few people so far that better together feels buoyant at the moment.

maybe it's misplaced. what's your sense of things? >> the easiest question to ask and the hardest to answer. look, we don't know until you count the little pieces of paper. that's what the process is about. until we get actual results in, we won't really know. clearly the pulse has acknowledged a high turnout oh increase it isser margin of error. we don't know how accurate the polls have been either. really, the question yes or no, should scotland be an independent country is one part of this. scotland for years has been debating what kind of country it wants to be. that's a deeper, more open ended conversation happening throughout scotland because it's got way beyond the bounds of traditional politics; way beyond party lines about how people have been voting, whether people have been vetting in elections. it engaged paem who are angry and disillusioned about politics. it's not only got a high turn

out but anywhere close to a victory. that would not have happened if this was a traditional political process. >> interesting. thank you very much. we'll be back with margaret in a second. i suppose clues is what we are after. which local authority areas, if you like have the characteris c characteristics which might suggest that they are more lakely to vote for retention of the union. let's join jeremy again. >> a lot of people say maybe we are doing well. let's remind ourselves as we look at the 32 counts we haven't got results. when they come in, green for yes, red for no. we'll put the percentages on the board here. you will see the councils gradually standard of practicing up. we'll have numbers. until then we don't know. if i order them in size, again, just to make clear these are the vital councils, the ones with the oomph.

glasgow, edinborough, aberdeenshire. they may be p counting faster, of course. maybe we'll hear from shetland and so on. before the bigger ones. these ones here we'll be looking at. rae minder talking about what we think may happen. have a look at this. this is where we are at the moment. looking for results. three progressing squares means they are still thinking, still counting. do we have results yet? we don't. we'll fill them in when we do. we can look for clues. if you ask people how they identify themselves they can be scottish or scottish and british or just british. here we see where people say just british. edinborough, murray.

lots of english retirees. down we go. come down with me. towards tend here you will see in the distance, gray, faded purple. very heavy, strong scottish identity. it is the case where people identify themselves as british, they are more likely to vote against independence. patterns is what we are looking for. edinborough. the second biggest council. could that be voting? no. just on this index alone. probably not. one more. this is councils by age. we know older people tend to oh be more worried about the idea of independence. you see argyle and butte there again. dumb fridays and gallaway on the border with england. thought to vote no. scottish borders, again on the

border with england. are we looking here at the no councils? come on down the blocks with me. have a look at the other end of the area. we'll see where the fewer older people are. dundee city, thought likely to vote yes. edinborough, a young city toward tend there. two indices to look at. british identity, and age as a clue to which councils may vote no. we don't have any numbers yet. >> we don't, jeremy. thank you very much. hopefully we'll have some soon. we mentioned falkirk. the terrain of former westminster campaign chairing the yes campaign. let's go there now. >> thank you, hugh. as you heard from sarah earlier on. dennis was a labor mp, quite a

rebel i don't say one. he's moved all the way over to chair the campaign. why did you make the journey? >> i was brought up in the labor party. i was the leader in westminster for 26 years. followed by eight years as an independent member of the scottish parliament. you have time to think. i have come to the conclusion that westminster is completely out of touch with the with people of scotland. the scottish parliament responds more effectively, more positively to the wishes, the needs and the aspirations of the people of scotland on things like the university tuition fees. >> is this the way to get socialism in scotland? through a yes campaign instead of the labor party. >> we have a better chance of a left of center agenda being a consensus within the people of

scotland and within the scottish parliament, compared to the compared to westminster where ed milliband is intent on continuing. intent on cutting welfare for young people and keeping the nuclear weapon. this is anathema to most scots. >> you were chairman of the yes campaign. you have heard u-gov are calling it. sarah talked about falkirk. you were an mp. there are suggestions that it might vote no. it would be a huge blow for the yes campaign. i spend much of the day going

around falkirk. a great reception under. >> still up at this point? >> absolutely. i have been campaigning for this for a couple of years now. the set-up campaign. i think we can still. >> you don't think things are looking bleaker on the yes side than they were? >> i expect a slight disappointment.

there's no area in scotland. i trust that's a small country. dennis, thank you very much for joining us. back to you, hugh. >> andy, thank you very much. thanks to mr. canavin for talking to us. i wonder how they are doing in aukney. david gray is the correspondent in kirkwall. could you give us a progress report on the count there? >> certainly. we were here at half past two for the result here. that might be earlier. it could be within the next 30, 40 minutes. that's unofficial. we are waiting to see everybody going ahead quickly. things have gone great here. we are hopeful we might be there first. >> reading the body language of people in both camps what's your

sense of who is looking confident and who's not. >> it would be a tough nut for the yes campaign to crack. this is liberal heartland here. it would be a huge boost. they are looking happier now than they were. i would be surprised here. until we get the result we don't know. the better together guys are looking happy here. >> very interesting. >> we may get a result there by 1:30 if that's the case. half a million votes up for grabs there.

the intelligence from glasgow is interesting. it has to do with projections of the boats based on certain signals. sarah has more as we look at the images. >> we have images from the yes camp. yes is saying glasgow may be 56% yes. they are saying the mood is flat in the yes camp. that would be a win for them. obviously thought they might do getter than that. these aren't the results. they haven't finished counting yet. it will be late before we get glasgow. the body language from the campaign is they look a little bit disappointed by that. >> nick? >> the sense is what they are hearing from the country. glasgow, we are talking almost half a million votes t. biggest city. hugely important. deeply important to the labor party and the better together if the city was lost to yes. if the other bits and bobs

coming through, that will be compensated in other parts of the country that seem to be better for them. i can't help noticing,7myñ we at the center of people coming in and out of the building. for this program, radio, online, other programs as wellment let me tell you, without people telling you much, no campaigners are smiling. they are the ones with a grin. yes campaigners are saying let's not comment until the votes are in. >> what's your reading? this is your patch. >> the votes aren't in but there is a sense of the need for change in glasgow. i understand that. my argument is basically to do that would be through uh the labor government. i don't necessarily think independence would deliver that. i would say my experience in glasgow is the yes campaign through absolutely everything at glasgow. they had to win glasgow.

they had to win it substantially. i think you are telling us they haven't won it enough. that's part of what will win here. >> they are predicting a 62% number. that would be a good margin. that's a middle class area. a lot of oh workers in the financial industries. many warnings about independence. there is a positive move. >> let's pause for a second. let's go to the other side and look at mid lothian, also an interesting area for us. it could be a strong point now as to which way it is going given the intelligence we are getting. our reporter is in bonny rig for us. who's happy there? secondly, what's the progress of

the count? >> both of them looking happy. everybody keeping everything close to the chest. i have spoken to david hamilton, the labor mp. he said he feels quietly confident. there are a few hours yet to go. it's an area we have to keep a close eye on tonight. when you talk about social factors you have been mentioning, social factors which the industry experts use to try to predict voting outcomes and include things like how many levels of low household incomes, wages, ethnicity. gender balance. profession. previous voting history. all used to try to predict outcome. now the difficulty is if you compare it to the national

scottish figure, the figures sit either just above or below the line as that for scotland. they are much along the same lines here. does that mean how people voted there today is indicative of the final result in a few hours' time? some people would argue it may be. but there is a big caveat to that. that caveat is this -- we are in uncharted waters here. we have never been here. how much the social factors will come into being. how much you could translate those into a final result completely remains to be seen. they are interesting and will maker for exciting reading when pollsters put a spin on them. they are really not cold, hard facts. we have to wait for judue at ha

past 3:00, quarter to 4:00. >> thank you very much. we look forward to that. thank you very much indeed. i'm told that the turn out in western bartonshire was 89%. these are breathtaking figures. we have seen nothing like it. go back to the 1951 general election for a turn out of just over 81% which is d record for the modern political era. these are remarkable. high 80s. so it's looking as if that will be reflected elsewhere. to my audience, our friends in the studio have been patient. malcolm first of all. malcolm mcdonald. where are you from? >> glasgow. >> you voted -- >> yes. >> you voted yes. okay. for margaret's sake because she's here for the other side, in a sentence, why did you vote

yes? can i say it's a grade ra-- gra rather than a black and white position. i found the no campaign patronizing. they were trying to scare me. i would like to think i'm more intelligent than that. i would like to think i can see through what was quite patronizing at times. flying the flag over downing street, oh, that will change my vote. it's not. the no campaign was full of that. the yes campaign offered hope, change and the better chance to create the society i would want to create and i would want to live in. the no campaign was so vague. in two years to put together a coherent package of what the future would be and to rush something out at the end, starting to panic. that's patronizing. >> we haven't come to this. i was going to bring it up. if you're prepared now that the

polls closed to acknowledge there was a huge amount of criticism of the better together campaign and, indeed of scattish labor's part in it. whether it's too weak, unfocused. do you share that criticism now? >> i don't think i'm someone who -- when someone is proposing this shift for the country that you ask questions about it. you see what kind of currency we are going to have. what are the implications for jobs? what's the future of key industries that matter to the country? i think sometimes people unfairly categorize that as scare mongering. jo think it is. i think those are reasonable questions. sometimes, you know, when you're doing that you sound so

negative. perhaps we should have embraced it in a positive way. these are reasonable and fundamental questions to ask. i suppose the other big difference of opinion i would have seems to me the premise of the yes campaign was to say britain is fib finished, broken. we can't get more economic and social change anymore. i don't believe that. we have friends across britain beneed to work with to create the change i want in scotland. the jobs come from our economic relationship with britain. i want to influence that. i want to have say in that. i want to redistribute resources across britain. maybe just disagree about that perhaps. >> thank you. a very important point. janet, you voted -- >> no. >> you voted no. you live where? >> in fife. >> gordon brown territory. >> very much so. >> why did you vote no?

>> two things concerned me. one of the main ones it was about the currency. it wasn't clear for me about currency. how it would affect my savings. how it would affect my pension, how it would affect business. i'm a self-employed person as well. something else that troubled me quite a lot was the way some of the yes campaign has been carried out. i just didn't like some of the -- especially in social media, some of the really aggressive, sometimes vitriolic comments. if that's people and the yes campaign, if that's the way they behave during the campaign it concerned me deeply that these might be people that could be running my country. >> are people aggressive on both

sides? >> in my view it was predominantly yes. >> tell me about friends and family. your sense of how they were weighing the options. the concerns you just expressed. did you find they were widely shared or not? >> yes. certainly. speaking to my neighbor, she was exactly the same as we. a quiet, no voter. not wanting to raise their head too far. but happy to be a no voter. >> thank you very much. ben, i know you're over here. thank you very much for waiting patiently. you run your own firm exporting bicycles. >> i do. >> right in the business community. what's your perspective on independence. >> i voted yes. my big worry really is the uk is shifting very far to the right. looks like it's becoming more europhobic. it's likely that the uk will

probably leave the eu which impacts imports and exports. it puts up shipping costs, makes it much more difficult. i voted yes because i want to stay part of europe. i think the uk will be dragging us away from that. >> i know -- i can imagine views thinking, well, hang on a second, scotland's future in the european union has to be in some doubt if it's a yes vote. that didn't bother you? >> no. it's in no one's interest really to have scotland excluded from the e.u. no one wins. >> no certainty, is it? >> no certainty. if there is a yes there is 18 months negotiations to get us into europe. but there is no way scotland would not qualify to be in the e.u. the question is technical of how to do the paperwork in the meantime. it's not a serious issue.

>> cat dalonia wants independence. he has reasons for saying that. >> if there is a yes vote, spain wants, for example, access for its fishing boats into the waters. no reason it wouldn't. >> thank you very much. willie wilson. thank you for waiting patient lichlt you're a retired pharmacist. you live where? >> near glasgow. >> okay. i'm going to ask you which way you voted? >> yes. >> was that a difficult process. >> i would have to say i would have voted yes. >> right. >> but my attitudes. a lot of these when i realized the dangers that we are facing, the national health service.

they have die verged from that in england steadily and considerably over the last 15 years. since the government passed the health and social -- privatization has advanced rapidly until it's 15%. >> we have been told repeatedly, certainly by margaret and colleagues that the scottish government has plenty of control in scotland. there may be a question about total funding. it can prioritize. it could raise income tax. >> it's more than a question about total funding. we have been promised 25 billion in austerity cuts over the next few years. over the last four years to protect the nhs. all the savings have been made

off the housing budget, all the rest of it. the next round of cuts will be bigger than the last. >> do you suspect if it is a no vote, do you think it will be another before this question is revisited? >> that's hard to say. i think that's about as hard to say it could predict the result at the moment. >> thank you very much for sharing your views. john, thanks for coming along. what's your sense of the way the debate has gone and before that, tell us how you voted. >> i voted no. >> was that because you were known from the start the or convinced by the arguments? >> i have been north from the start. i look at it in a simplistic terms. the yes campaign was telling us everything would be fine. don't worry.

you know, they couldn't tell anything. you know, they couldn't tell us what currency we would be using. interest rates and things. what about my mortgage? my family? the simple things in life. i'm just a workman, you know. i worry about the simple things in life and you weren't getting any answers from the yes side. it was all maybe and but. some kind of utopia. everything's paid for and it's going to be fantastic, you know. >> is that your reading of the yes campaign? >> basically, aye. >> it's a caricature. i'm wondering if at any point it had to do with scottish people being in control of their own fate, country, finances.

where any of the principles appeal to you. >> i would love scotland to be an=gwvc independent country. but the discussions that they have been having, we should have been having these things two, three years ago. we shouldn't be waiting until the very last minute. we should have had these things discussed, sat down. thrashed everything out where we are using the pound. #ñbd5zñnc<

you? >> yeah. >> which region? >> gorpels. >> what was your sense of the campaign. did you start with an open mind or oh were you knowing you were a yes from the start? >> i was instinctively for independence. my thought before we realized we weren't going to have the option was perhaps it was approaching the independence. given the choice between the two i was going for independence. >> okay. >> that's basically from the start. >> do you agree with the view that the campaign got nasty at times? whose fault was that? >> in a situation like this, it really difficult to quantify. everybody's experiences were the same. as strongly as the experiences

were, the campaign were aggressive. my experience of the yes campaign was it was not aggressive. me and my friends since saturday went up to -- traveled up. we were all singing we still love you. we were shaking hands with no supporters. the guy on the bike, the guy from the campaign. from my experience it hasn't been negative at all. politics is like that. people -- you will have pockets on either side. to quantify and accuse one side of being more aggressive than the other isn't fair on either side. >> do you think there is a basis to the fear that someone will be dispinted with the outcome and

that could raise questions about how people get on in the future? do you think the fears are misplaced? >> that's the reality. people are getting into politics now. fortunately that's the reality of politics. something else happens and you move on at the end of the day. i think to try and inflate that into something largely through the media, i have seen something in the daily news saying they hired extra police. that's kid clubhouse. what an impression there must be of us down south if that's what people are thinking. it was nothing like that, really. >> it's good to end on a positive note and say, nothing like that. it's been exemplary. thank you very much. you have done a long shift now. 20 past 1:00. i'm grateful. if we let you go.

>> thank you very much. we hope whatever your view, you are content with the result. thanks for joining us. it's good to see you. isn't it interesting? from all of them, a sense of real engagement and, again, a very sophisticated take on politics. it's a great thing to see. >> i was so tempted to answer back on some of the issues. i thought the campaign was over. some very serious issues here. i would say there is one thing. have clear argument that the last day lei di who spoke. people do feel we are divided and we have to work very, very hard, i think, to pull things together. we're going to have to reach out to those of us who voted differently and i think, you know, the political class need to show leadership. whatever scotland has decided,

we'll respect that decision. we have had a long conversation about this. we made a decision. you we start having to make decisions, i think. >> i hope they will be with us soon. what's the time? 20 past 1:00. we might be in luck. sarah, track manager, just set it in context for us. what would be significant there. >> expecting to do quite well. there is some tradition of voting smp. quite a lot of working class voters, the kind of place where, yes, labor voters, people who voted for labor in the past might have been tempted to the yes side with prediction that is as many as a third of labor voters might be tempted to vote yes, maybe in places like clackmanshire. there is a bedrock of voters there. we expect a result there. labor mp john macdonald says now

the polls have closed i can say it, never again should labor go in with the tories in a campaign coalition. this was an uncomfortable coalition at times when you had labor. they are allowed to say they are in bed#w?ç with the tories. tar them with the westminster brush around labor politicians necks. there is an mp saying it should never happen again. >> i think that misunderstands what was happening in scotland. every time someone would say, why are you campaigning alongside the tories i say, i would have said it to patrick harvey, but he's here. why are you campaigningñr alongside brian sutter who was notorious for launching campaigns against the rights progressing. >> not quite as notorious as osborn -- >> i don't know about that.

sutter is a controversial character in scotland. it's logical. that's such a choice. you have a coalition and a very broad coalition on one side and a very broad coalition on the other. >> allowed your opponents to do this the yes campaign is say here is the political establishment. they invented the phrase westminster politics. in other words, these people were representative of a foreign place. there were uk politician or so representatives of the party which historically has been powerful in scotland. they were dismissed. i heard them called the three amigos as if all three leaders of the party were identical. that must have been hugely damaging. >> they tried. i don't know if it succeeded. maybe. >> did you look at the opinion poll trust ratings comparing cameron and milliband. >> no. >> remember n. scotland the

leader of the uk labor party would have higher ratings than the leader of the conservative party. not the case. in this election we saw 21%. >> i think the challenge would be if we vote no in the general election, you will find a lot more support for the uk leadership and a uk ticket into government. i think the yes campaign worked hard to try to. in fact, some people and maybe some of the people here, one of the big reasons they say to us is we want labor back in power. i'm tempted to vote yes. it wasn't necessarily the thing. i don't think that always worked. >> thank you very much. >> i'm going to talk about one turn out. there it is on the screen. this is interesting. dundee where the s&p is strong,

very big hopes there of an extremely strong performance by the yes campaign. 79%. of course if this was a normal election night, 79% would be remarkable. in the context of this remarkable referendum it's lower. in fact, 10% lower. >> alex her man described dundee as scotland's yes city. that doesn't tell us dundee isn't going to vote yes. it does suggest we assumed the sbich was coming from yes supporters and the reason people were making such an effort to get out is because they were determined to vote yes. we may have been wrong. the quiet nose may have been the turning out in greater force in some parts of the country. fewer yes supporters in dundee. >> let's go to clackmanshire.

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19,000 votes for the no campaign. 16,350 for the yes campaign. a huge turn out of 89%. let's look at the percentage of the vote. just to under line the par gin. 54% voting no. 46% voting yes, a 12% margin. a healthy 12% margin for the no campaign in the first result from clackmannanshire. what do we make of it? >> i would say it's a surprise.

no campaigners will be cheered by that. predictions were clackmannanshire was likely a yes. it is an area with a tradition of some smp support. a large number of people who may feel disenfranchised that they were short changed by the government and would have every reason to vote for change. they have voted to stay part of the union and that will give cheer to the no campaigners. >> look what happened when they heard that. [ cheers and applause ] responding to the result. for you a broad smile as well, margaret. >> this is an historic moment for scotland. this is the first declaration. it's quite an emotional moment for us. we are beginning to decide in this great event this our history. i am pleased with this.

this is an important result. i think the yes campaign should have expected to do better. i think the no campaign has done unexpectedly well. the arguments were getting across. >> it's one result. 31 to go. we are going to be cautious as always. are you going to say that tells you if the result is a 12% margin for clackmannanshire, are you saying that leads you to believe your own position now? >> indicative of a better night than i had might otherwise be. >> i will call in professor curtis, our resident expert with our team of experts on the upper level here in the broadcasting house in glasgow. can you can you're talk it

through? >> it's the no side, not 12. first, i think a few weeks ago a yes would have been pleased with 46. i don't think the story of recent opinion polls that we are looking up probably quite a tight race. that said, however, i think sarah is correct. this is probably somewhere one expected the yes side. they will therefore be rather disappointed at only getting 46% of the vote. as we have emphasized this is a small part of scotland. it's not the end of the day going to weigh a great deal in the overall result. if this were counter balanced by better results for us in larger authorities we may not put much weight. inevitably we are doing so at the moment. >> we heard very confident

noises from glasgow. do they tally with what you have been hearing? >> it is thought they are ahead in glasgow. the figures around 53 p, 54, 55. again, probably not on the scale the yes side would be hoping for. again crucially, probably they are good enough to suggest this is, indeed, a relatively tight referendum, ratherer than a referendum the no side where going to win comfortably. john curtis there. 54% no in clackmannanshire. i should be able to work out that's 8, not 12%. good of john to pick me up on that. >> almost exactly in line with the last opinion poll that showed an 8% lead there,

remember. if you are used to watching uk general elections of to keep reminding yourself that the areas we are hearing aren't identical in size. they are massively different. there are 12 clackmannanshires before a glasgow. the other obvious thing to remember every vote counts equally. total votes being added up together. it's a sign. certainly a sign that the smiles we have seen on the no campaigners' faces is the reason you are seeing them. let's note though if you saw that result six months ago there would be no smiles at all. don't be ridiculous. nowhere near this sort of figure. they are only smiling out of pure relief because about a week or ten days ago they thought, my god, we are going to lose.

something that almost nobody on the no side thought. six months, 12, 18. 24 months ago. >> whether or not people changed their minds in the last week or so when we have seen gordon brown arrive in the campaign in a blaze of fury making promises about strict timetables for more powers to be delivered to scotland. all three uk party leaders rushing up, signing a pledge. making a vow to deliver more power to scotland in what looked like a last minute desperate rush. we don't know at this point whether that succeeded, if it did, is it because people changed their minds in the last few minutes or was it never as close as they feared it was? there was a moment they did think it was very close indeed. >> leslie riddick is with us. thanks for coming this. your reading so far. >> this is impossible. everyone will keep saying that. it's a tiny group. hard to know because we haven't had a referendum for a long

time. you would expect loyalties to lie. it's true that people are shuffling back and forth between yes and no to a baffling degree if you thought voters tended to normally be what you would expect in classic elections. you would expect people to roughly cohere to what they tended to vote. my experience is people have been going across all sorts of lines. so it's hard to know. i have spent the day in a shop in edinborough and the place was constantly busy. the yes side is more valuable, out there, persuasive because it had to be. that absolutely doesn't necessarily add up to an advantage at the polls. >> i know clackmannanshire is small and we should be careful about drawing lots of lessons. wrould you have expected the yes

campaign to have one there? what's your sense of the result. does it allow us to say anything? >> it might be worth saying. it sounds petty that i'm not within the political firm meant of this. that's an important part of the yes campaign. it became a movement somewhere along the line. larger now that the smp or so on. most don't have the analysis of looking at it. a lot of people around the bbc looking at their mobile phones with messages from a percent here, a percent everywhere else. if normal people were involved in this -- >> i beg your pardon. >> you're normal, too. most who just come in for the first time really are looking at it in a more holistic way. we'll sense the vibe they have had. >> peter johnson is the leader of the council has accepted they have lost the vote there.

no will win west lothian. we haven't got the numbers in. he's describing the defeat as disappointing. >> you made the point about your place in the firment. would those be unduly disappointing outcomes? >> it is disappointing. the culture secretary, that's her -- i would imagine she would have hoped it would go a different way. >> west lothian, don't forget. the birthplace of mary queen of scots. scotty from "star trek" as well. >> that's a strong smp area. if they lost it, they would be disappointed. >> i think the point that she doesn't see it as a party person the way i would. there are trends here.

in the last few days, i think we are beginning to see something of west lothian now. it's an indication here. i would have thought the smp yes campaign would need to make those gains if they were to win this. who knows other parts of the country could be different. you're right. it's not like it. >> if it is moving in that direction, would you think the tide turned in the last few days? better together. finally getting the message through when they changed and got gordon brown. was there a quiet no all along? >> gordon has been around the campaign longer than implied. he's had an impact. >> he made speeches beforehand. he's been front and center. he certainly had not been in the months previous. >> it changed. >> i felt it was. i take the point. he had a remarkable impact on the campaign.

as i say to the younger people, you will see people at the rally to hear the speech. >> could we look to see what's going on in orkney? no one is on stage. i'm told orkney is imminent or at least expected shortly. if we get something we'll go back right away. let's talk a little bit more about the result. we'll join andrew at englestone. tell us more about the impact of that. >> it's tiny. but i think we are now beginning to see the narrative of the evening unfold.

given the history i would have expected them to vote yesment what nick was saying as well about the central belt of scotland is important. these are areas where labor has become used to the smp stealing the dinner off the table. i'm not sure with the greatest respect to gordon brown that it is all about gordon brown in the final days. it's been dominated by the sunday times which sent shock waves across the community in sco scotland. horrified people into voting. some are unionists turning out. we assumed the high turn out would be good above a certain level. it might be good for the no vote. that's happening in scotland tonight. >> there is an old saying saying

the most interesting poll is the wrongest poll. there was one poll in the entirety of oh campaigning that would have been just wrong. it certainly wasn't helpful to the yes campaign. they needed it to creep up on people. what they didn't need was a mighty great shock wave that went out over the whole of the united kingdom. leaders came up. campaigners got their act together. there was an attempt to have a timetable on what was said about the alternative offer to oh be made in the event of a no vote in terms of extra powers to the scottish parliament. all because of the poll. >> on the outcome so far, let's join jeremy again. >> okay. let's look at the score board and just see the one result so far which is clackmananshire. no vote, 54%.

come have a look at the map and work out where it is on the map of scotland. if you can't place it. as you can see it's just flashing there in the red just above edinborough. come this way. we'll look at the information starting with the actual result. as you can see, not small but tiny council. 19,000-odd noes there and the yes's behind with 16,300-odd votes. a victory for the no's. to what extent was that a surprise or out of line? lesly said it's difficult to pause the different factors. let's look at clackmannanshire and see where it is in the 2014 european elections. here we have 2014 european election results. you can see the snp there was the largest party in that result. i will show you here the figures

we had earlier this year. you can see how the parties were arranged in the 2014 local elections. percentage there, you can see 33%. labor, just behind on 31. if labor's support base was galvanized by gordon brown there are a lot of votes they can call on. way behind 13%. 10%. that was the result in the 2014 european election in clackmannanshire. let's bring up the european election results. we were thinking that the councils colored yellow in early 2014 in the european elections, maybe were most inclined to go yes to independence, but they haven't. this clackmannanshire hasn't so far. council is now by social grade. take a look. we showed you earlier. this was another indicator. because of the correlation between poorer voters and people voting yes.

if you have more manual workers, more people on benefits, you have more yes votes. these are the ones with most d's and e's. glasgow. clackmannanshire there. on that register of poorer voters you would expect p to see a yes vote, but it hasn't done. to show you a graph showing measures of the social breakdown is one of the reasons it's coming early. a's and b's here. professional managerial. 16% below the scottish average which is the blue column. then you have c-1st and 2s. maybe middle management or working class. middle class people. more so in the middle area. still lagging behind. then you see in the d's and e's,

poorer voters. clackmannanshire 32%. just to illustrate there are poorer voters here. it has gone no and that's rather against what we thought we would see which was a correlation between lower social economic groups and a yes vote. hugh, back to you. >> jeremy, thank you very much. some incredible turn out figures. sterling. 90%. never seen anything like it. east renfordshire is higher. 90.5%. sterling at 90.1. east renfordshire at 90.5. they are the highest we have seen so far. they are remarkable figures. nick can comment on this, too. what this remarkable turnout would reflect is something possibly the factored hadn't

factored in. oh who is part of this? people who voted possibly for the union. >> the better together campaign got a huge vote. you overheard conversations all over about people saying where do i join in, fake and social media. a real jolt of electricity went through when they got the poll. you could see the yes campaign were uncomfortable about it. they liked being the under dogs, the idea that they were the ones that had to push the vote out. they were struggling against the establishment to make a revolutionary change happen. they were very uncomfortable for the brief moment when it looked like they were in the ascendency. >> in the turn out it isn't consistently high in yes areas or low. you were mentioning earlier, dundee is surprisingly low -- high in normal terms but lower than the other. there are other yes areas.

expected to be yes. have very high turn outs, higher than some of the no expected areas. there isn't a consistent pattern that would allow us to read into the idea that the extra turn out is all no voters. >> lesly? >> i hear the narrative. yet i hear something missing from it. as far as i'm concerned, the last two weeks after that 51% poll produced the most extraordinary series of threats and shaking the world pronouncements. we had everything here from bikes moving to prices rising. the lockehness monster seen sou of the border. you would have to be a calm person not to be rattled by that. once you hear the movements of gordon brown and the potential ricochet from that, the galvanizing of the vote. it was certainly the case that people felt threatened actually by the british establishment.

that's quite a scary thing to behold in the way we did in those two weeks. >> we were never sure what effect that would have. there was such a huge movement, so many big businesses and banks coming out. doom laden were the threats. alexander said they are not throwing the kitchen sink but most of the living room. you wondered if scots would say, hang on, if you're telling us we can't do it we might do it to prove you wrong. >> this was what the difficulty was. you're all saying this. there was one supermarket. turned into supermarkets plural. you could have talked to morrisons. >> five big banks said they would missouri headquarters. >> i'm trying to have accuracy is in the numbers. it started to get swept up into everybody will be out of here. no jobs left. that was never the truth in that two weeks. but it was easily made. >> margaret? >> first of all, i think the yes campaign moved to dismiss those voices so swiftly as if we just

lumped them into the scare mongering, politically motivated voices trying to shift the vote. i don't think it was as simple as that. these were serious ek no miracle voices telling serious economic voices telling truth to people. and i think the fact that the yes campaign couldn't answer any of that was very serious. i mean, i was in my constituency in the east end and i had people say to me -- about the share price falling. that friday the share price failed. and people were saying that's weird, something's happening here. it's not just the political campaign. it's the markets. people did feel the financial implications of wovoting for independence was very serious on their lives and the failure of the yes campaign, if it is to be that -- let's not againp

presumptuo presumptuous. that's what galvanized the no vote. people are saying our jobs, our futures could be in jeopardy because that was fundamentally not addressed by the yes campaign. taking an economic trap door. >> but at least actually the yes side of it, they have a plan. i would have thought at least part of the market jitter was because we know the uk government has done no contingency planning whatsoever. and the minute we got a 51% vote, it was obvious that there could well be an independent scotland. for the first time everyone woke up to that. then you woke up to the fact that the uk government hadn't prepared for it. there were no negotiations involved in it. suddenly you had a pretty sticky mess looming. i would suggest that's at least as much of the mechanics as what was happening. >> let's pause there. margaret, you may be leaving us. >> i'm leaving. >> if you do, we thank you for

your time. nice to have you with us. leslie is staying with us. we go straight to win minister. let's join john o'neil again. >> we see the glasgow turnout at 20%. danny, if it is a no vote mr. miller and mr. cameron has to deliver. but cameron has to deal with a lot of back berchs and cabinet ministers who are happy if he does that in isolation. he has to say something for england as well. what does he tell them? >> i think there are fundamental policy problems, but i don't think there's a political problem on the english. the political problem isn't the english parliament, it's the question of who the executive is. >> you mine, who the english executive is. >> yes. and that's a serious pause from the political problem will turn out to be more the money. in other words, i think the policy will probably go david cameron will probably offer them that. he won't have a problem doing

that. >> but english votes or english laws is not an english executive. >> no, that's what i'm saying. he'll have a policy problem as to how -- as to once he's created the idea of english votes for english laws he'll have a problem as to who takes the executive office in england. and -- >> is this what we're talking about now? are we effectively talking about a separate government for england? >> if you have english votes for english law, it creates an interesting policy problem. if there's a labor government in the united kingdom, but an english majority in england, who runs it in england? >> if who speaks for england becomes the issue south of the border where does this leave mr. miller in the labor party? >> first of all, if it's no, an incredible sense of relief. it makes all the sense to labor. half of the conservative party

into have been quite pleased to get rid of all the labor mps. it can make sense that labor would win the next election and subsequent elections. that would be the overwhelming sense. after that it's quite plain what we need is a constitutional convention, where these things can be hammered out. we don't have a constitution, we have a series of barnacles with no boat. we need to have a proper discussion about all of these things. pull on one bit of thread -- >> when you do that, there's no way you're going to meet gordon brown's timetable. but i'm still not clear. the unhappiness in the tory-backed bench is how home rule was given away without any consultation or any talk about what it would mean for the rest of the uk is palpable. it goes into the cabinet. i ask again, i'm told the prime minister may speak as early as 7 clock tomorrow morning with the statement not just on the scottish result but what it means for the rest o the uk. what does he have to say to keep his back benches online?

>> i don't think he's going to have a problem aligning himself with the back bejs on english votes for english laws because he'll believe that himself. i'm sure that's what he will say. >> but they're also cross about the barnett. because a number of conservatives have said we don't mind scotland getting these extra tax powers, that's fine if that's what they want. also it will mean the end of the bond formula. mr. cameron through mr. brown has promised extra tax powers and the bond. >> that's something that the conservative policy that all together campaign was talking about for months. but you're quite correct the two things the no count were accused of was they should put the financial settlement and the timetable. both of those are tricky problems. >> so he has problems. >> on those questions. >> these are the questions. >> they're not. because the other question is the question of fundamental powers. i think he's got less problem on

that front. there are tricky policies. >> if the barnett formula, which gives the scots 19% more per capita, that really we've already heard this evening the welsh are going to be complaining, the english will be complaining. >> the english don't like it. >> the north. but what we've broken the bands and everybody else is going to say, well does that mean we have to have less because we've got to stay within this tight straitjacket that george osbourne has laid out? if that's the case, that's just not going to be acceptable. >> english laws is going to be a fundamental political problem for the labor party. how are they going to win the majorities in england to govern england? and the question of austerity is a question of borrowing powers. >> how does labor answer that? if you can only get your english manifesto through on english

votes, that's a real problem for a government which could be empowered because of scottish votes. >> virtually every previous time that labor has won an election, it has won in england as well. we don't know that that's going to happen. and wales. we don't know if it's going to happen. it's a possibility if it's very tight. but it could well happen. >> but if it doesn't -- >> even if it doesn't, there are still big questions because when you look at health, when you look at education, there are a lot of gray areas around. if it's about how much money goes into those, well, that's also a scottish question, too. the sum of money that's going when you look at the block grant for health, for education, that affects them, too. >> two labor mps, dunham and abbott saying tonight that english matters have got to be decided for england. if it's good enough for scotland, it's good enough for england. where does this leave the authority of ed miliband who

didn't have a very good campaign. and for some labor mps it's kind of reinforced their worst fears about his leadership qualities. >> i think it leaves him in a much stronger position because the fear was that all of these labor votes were going to go for yes and, in fact, if together it's still a very -- >> miliband -- >> not necessarily. there's no evidence for that whatever. i think he was part of it. the idea that there is a social democratic across the border togetherness with quite a strong part of it, too. >> english votes for english laws are far more fundamental to labor party. >> back to scotland decides. >> andrew, thanks very much. and thanks to the guests too. let's have a tally because the tally involves just one result. we have one result in so far. here we are at the headquarters of bbc scotland in glasgow.

so far the result in from cla clackmannanshire. that's the only result we have. but having said that, we have more turnouts for you. and they vary quite a bit, actually. from 75% in glasgow, which again is on the low side given the figures that we were reporting elsewhere. aberdeen at around 80%. and eastern bodanshire breaks the record this evening at 91%. varying from 75% to 91%. we're thinking the national turnout is around 85%. don't hold me to that. that's the calculation we're making at the moment. we'll be able to firm that up later. but a remarkable perfection on where we are.

michael forsythe. former secretary of state to scotland. good to see you. you were making the point, to be fair, when you were fighting elections for westminster, 80% turnouts were not an issue. >> in sterling we would get 83%, but it was a close-run fight and every vote counted. that's true in this referendum campaign. what we've seen since i left politics is the politicians concentrate on the marginal seats, the pollsters tell them to concentrate on specific dividing issues and, of course, the voters think, well, what's the point? so the turnout is low. in this campaign everybody knows that their vote really matters, and the division between yes and no is pretty clear. so it's been very exciting, but there's a phrase from burns, what some power the gift to gives to see ourselves as others see us.