>> we're looking back 70 years to the august 1940 five atomic bombings of hiroshima and nagasaki, japan. the decision to surrender to allied forces. this -- this hour-long program at the institute for study and politics. combatnext speaker has

excretes over bosnia and iraq. he is now teaching at our institution as far as you can be, namely fort leavenworth. he will speak on the succession of miracles that occurred in august of 45. >> somebody has to do it, so that he has to go to the middle of the country and do it. and i love doing it. thank you for having me out. thank you to our hosts. i'm going to start off esoterically. crackled. they crackled in japan. the alien voice of hirohito, emperor.

-- showahat emperor emperor. they asked him to enter the under -- the unendurable. phrase get to that toward the end i don't run out of time. and surrender implicitly their secrets to -- sacred soil to the triumphant gaijin. some of the japanese couldn't it. understand they couldn't understand the formal court court to dialectic -- formal court dialect.

they couldn't understand the it'sse being spoken -- like going to -- you couldn't understand the chinese been spoken in both places. earlier the first atomic bombs had been dropped on the cities of hiroshima and nagasaki by the united states army air force, it was still the army air force at that time. that is what happened. and going to kind of go through after this happened. this happened after u.s. submarines and an aircraft essentially destroyed japanese red blood cells over a maritime empire. especially the heavy movers. her transoceanic empire relied on that. this happened after the united hades navy and its allies practically annihilated the japanese imperial navy and cut

the main sea lines of communication to the south -- to the southern resource area. after allied air power had gained the ability -- what we may call a temporary command of the sea, they do this prior to the invasion. little navalt what aviation the japanese have left off of formosa. allied forces defeated and -- after allied forces had landed on sacred japanese

mariana,nclude the saipan, and of course okinawa. after they had dropped two atomic bombs, vaporizing that same rubble. after the ussr had declared war on japan. as the soviet mechanized armies were overrunning manchuria ,gainst the once wanted army after a military crew failed to destroy the reporting the emperor had made. these are not what i would term miracles. out focus this talk on what is a miracle? we have used that word before.

a miracle is luck, america will is serendipity, i miracle is murphy's law 180 degrees out. those were the miracles that i'm going to talk about. we did talk about the effects between people inside the japanese policy. important,e making serious, effective decisions that would affect the course of things. as you can see, i have fallen prey to the classic historians classic dilemma, how far back should i go? from june, 1944 on, it has been one disaster after another there were a lot of disasters fire to the government by 1944 committee which an entire army fall apart in burma, and then starve to

death during the retreat. there is a lot going on in the japanese empire. .here is a lot going on in - - - have thisinder why we endgame, there is active for committed against the united states. and i think this had never happened, if the japanese and yamamoto had not convinced the imperial naval general staff of the army navy committee that approved these things to attack for all harper, that would be a picture of kavita, smoking and flaming. i not completely convinced that without pearl harbor we do not have world war ii. i had to pull this off the internet. battleship in a floating drydock. in 1944, that is the west virginia.

i do not think they had moved it to the philippines yet. we had 10 advanced talks this side. people have said he was being punished, joe regarded it as a positive indication that he would be allowed to commands u.s.hing that cost taxpayers a lot of money to build. by the end of world war ii, before the japanese surrendered, we had over 100 floating drydock's in the pacific. you don't just improvised those things overnight, after 1941. important tobly weigh how we get to the endgame. but i want to talk about a couple of things. first, let's think about some shaping components. again, i show this to my students at fort leavenworth, and i have to explain to them

the japanese policy. i did do some terror imaging, which you should not do, but have to because you have to have a firm of reference. operate the same way. they have a secretary of the navy of the secretary for war, the systems are so different between the two. wegree with those who say did not have a really good understanding on how things work inside the upper levels of the japanese policy . how much the army and the navy hated each other in japan. they fought over the budget for patriotic reasons and they consider themselves alone all that was necessary to protect kokutai.

we forget after the london a bunch of i --anese guys who thought were thought to have sold the farm were assassinated. almosternment was overthrown and risk replaced with a modern military government. we just do not understand it. i want to talk to some of this. that is part of the shaping. miracle, those things are really disasters that came before. they are not so much miracles. there is a long hard fighting,

and let certificate, and bit ofion, quite a price - willpower. with the exception of the failed two, we have to review all of these events that led us to the of one darning disaster after another. the way that they happened was very fortuitous, but it was not planned. it was contingency. -- elementent helmet in history is too often missed. as the other speakers said, we know how it turned out they did not. that really lined up nicely, the atomic, and the invasion, the end of war, those were smart guys who put that together. [laughter] that is not how it happened. it was not synchronized, as we might say. explaininguble

something logically, it is a miracle. i'm dealing with the process of how japanese policy came to this decision. and who controlled grander strategy and policy. policy, it is and rich thorton control policy, and that is the waves going to be for the next 10 years, it is always in flux. particularly in a consensus driven policy like they japanese head, the centers of powers and decision float around the emperor. it is not anything you can just kind of say i understand how that isbusiness in 1942 good for the rest of the war, no it is not. it changes. the sixth,rom august all the way up until the surrender, it changes almost , how the

decision-making goes on and how we get to this miracle of the japanese surrender. there are things we need to talk .bout, and the first is kokutai i will read what my favorite scholars on it. it is the most powerful emotive force. warecomes the japanese game, the preservation of the kokutai. what is it? it is the notion of imperial japan as unique nation by virtue of its sacred emperor. it remains difficult to define, precisely a few words because the concept met different thing to different groups in japan. meantre he took, it responsibility to his imperial ancestors.

to preserve the unbroken imperial line. army, is notial the preservation of the imperial system, which became the repository for the values and virtues of the imperial army. , it is if he dies, the unbroken line is you can. you cannot go out and get another one. for the army, it is putting that system in place. it is not just the emperor, it is not just the imperial relics, not just the drill family, it is imperial era. if that spirit gets polluted, with unrighteous acts, that you

may as well fight to the death. a critical appointment of all of these miracle. it will drive the bus of decision-making. things james perry mentioned it, i'm not sure who was but this idea of decisive victory. the japanese spend the whole war searching for the decisive victory. there's going to fight one. they just need the one decisive victory. with the nature of the decisive victory and what it is supposed to accomplish changes as the work goes on. of 1944 the idea isthat what we need to avoid we need to avoid an occupation of japan. we need to rid change the -- we

and to retain the kokutai its broader sense, which means retaining the things we had in china prior to 1937 an. you have to remember this decisive victory, as time goes on, people began to compromise. vision ishe emperor's one decisive is become compromised and he does not does eventually he loses faith in the decisive the area. he does not ever lose faith in the kokutai. two groups. lineis one of the few diagrams that i have made it talks about the big six. council in the military

for the direction of the war. when the emperor joyce's counsel, it is an imperial council. do not be confused between a city council and then a meeting. imperial conferences are actually meetings that include the supreme council for the direction of the war with the emperor and his most trusted with him. he is that in mind. who are these guys? we will talk about them. the second group was senior officers in the japanese army in that is an area that is right for more research. the real army is a great place to start, but there is much more

research needed to understand what is going on with all of these guys because there is a treasure trove out there. something that is not sketches this whole idea of rational theory. we have already heard, human beings are fundamentally rational. they are fundamentally irrational. what you need to understand is the guy running japan after hirohito resigns or the moderates. tojo is from the control faction of the japanese already. are defeated in

1936, and the moderates take over. there's dell military, they still have aggressive , but they are actually the moderates. we always talk to the student for leavenworth, you straight japan's government changes. a lot of americans do not know that. in june 1944. resides in disgrace

-- resigned in disgrace after the failed campaign. this policy for the direction or failure, and he is waste by 70 from the korean government. i wanted to do that. line 1944, there are still some of what we call the treaty faction. the people inside the japanese soey have been doe discredited for what has been inflicted on them. they are going to be the ones running japan. they are the moderates. there are a lot more water in

japanese government that one could imagine that makes this even more problematic. was the week of time. -- was look at the week of fire. they created this to give advice to the emperor. it was going to include the army, the navy minister, foreign officers, or the japanese equivalents. our secretary of navy, our of the chief of the staff. the parameter has just resigned. , tooke former minister michigan over a. -- tojo.

i might be regarded as i mourn your mentor put together, so ,ere are the people of hirohito prime minister suzuki, and suzuki is a fascinating guy. adversity is a very firebrand, once japan to expand him a build an empire in china, very export expansion byf canada. but he is also supportive of the treaty officer i. a survivor of an assassination attempt. he is the premier, the prime minister and admiral tsuzuki.

minister, the warminster. guy., dynamic two other generals. and when the chief of the imperial general staff. there are key members of the cabinet were not part of the decision-making body. why is that? it is falsely military offices and they have not figured it out. as he is a admiral, but he has been gone a while in the do not trust to ignore. by the time of the defeat of open, which was a disaster, not a miracle, a three key holdout

remains. the hardliners. it did not mean that the other -- were notki, and excited with japan could not win decisive victory and an occupation, but they receive moderate faction. the other guys were the hardliners. they absolutely continue to wield influence within your council sort of data. the army is the key holdout. this is all the way of until august 9. this is really the split. opposition, ready to

negotiate the surrender immediately the brokered by the suzuki, he goes back and forth, and quito, the hidden man behind the curtain. straddles the fence, but more and more is leaning toward the moderates and he is straddling the fence and he is very unhappy. the army has had the prime minister resigned because of losing so much faith the year before. all probably had their little packages put together because things were so felt they a probably would fail the emperor with everybody else did and would have to commit suicide rate they had everything ready to go when the time came.

but is he going to stand aside, is to going to say they read this is, but we will agree to go along? talking, hidden messages, and somebody will talk to somebody in the hallway. all of his very soul source things. and these are the moderates. ownhito learns in major from two of his chief military advisers, who the army and neighbor -- navy town think they can defend japan. to they navy come emperor and say we cannot defend japan.

they also say they have decided that the soviets invade manchuria, they will do a fighting retreat back to the best gins in korea. he really wants out to save the kokutai sec said. he will be up for our after the war is over. -- emperor after the war is over. would acceptta the demands going out of potsdam . if so we mediation is our.

the united stateslast have them and they know it is placed. it is like playing poker. he does have to look at the ridges hand. it is really well. this attitude very close to his vest about where he is. , this gets-july glossed over and all the entries i have read. but they create this story and mountain, or what is the place in west rigid as the president is supposed to go and hide? the japanese have one of those as well in world war ii. it is in the mountain.

he is supposed to go to the mountains across the bounds will kill you. he refuses. he did not want to eliminate his field of action by giving the army control over what he says and does. good decision when we see what happens with many to the tried .o use the sizet gives up on and for all. it will not happen. aircraft carriers are roaming the pacific and will, they are able to bomb japan. it is really a mess. the thing that pushes him over the edge is the bombing of the imperial shrine. most sacred place in japan. it is like the vatican.

cannotanese military detect the shrine, they cannot protect him. they have lost their mandate. then the potsdam declaration comes in. fors the condition unconditional surrender. august, they are relying on soviet initiative, to achieve their basic war in, give notice absolutely published -- even though it is absolutely hopeless and they hope that will come with something. we do not want the americans to know what our bargaining position is. nobody wants to go on record as saying here is what we will settle for. that might encourage the allies, to ask for more. sense.give them the

everyone knows they have lost. by the end of july, the japanese empire, just prior to 1941, is not going to last down after 1945. what does that look like? find time, here if you do is ready to say, if it is just me and all these other guys can work through this, i'm fine with that. i have a little note to myself, despite the implications that the u.s. and ssri full party to .he who talked to whom and when? of writinga matter the imperial rescript.

i'll not go into that, but or --s a lot of effort first bombing of hiroshima. it's everyone's attention. that is really the effect. effect is confusion. it is not decision, it is confusion. what is the first report? it is always wrong. which figure out what we got. we heard that the blue approach well with horrible weapon. we need to confirm for ourselves what is going on here heard we military guys are get disastrous news. sometimes it is bad is there telling you. right, now we get kinds --

august the eighth, 2000 local time, the soviet union first. they break off to the letter relations with japan, and there's some evidence that they had already crossed the frontier and maybe with some reconnaissance forces. they declare war on those of us simultaneously. kind of like the japanese. the effect here is cumulative. they have to wait for the information to flow to tokyo. after all flow in. , hf is before radios communications. the information is not moving the way it would on this computer and the internet.

august 9, 10 minutes after tonight, the soviet forces cross the frontier. this actually a little bit later. they asked you, and operations with the entire japan. david talked a little bit about that. groups.lly, three army that kind of completely takes they wererprise rate surprised. this is something that undermines the credibility with each other, and then i can say that you know the russians were going to attack they got to. -- two attack? they got you.

the idea that this will happen quickly is nonsense. the idea that it does is a miracle. what is gone now, diplomatic option. they don't ship - ship. in a b-29, they drop the man plutonium bomb on nagasaki. wheres a great bbc thing napoleon is in moscow, sitting in the kremlin commands these learning and people are running in with bad news. this kind of what happens on august 9 at the imperial

conference. , the a scheduled meeting emergency in the meeting because of all the things happening, yes. 9ere certainly is on august rate within the nagasaki news comes in. you get all this bad news start to flow into my end none of this is synchronized by the allies. it is all accidental how this lines up. the plutonium bomb really undermines those who were arguing that the americans only .ave one of these things there is more on the way. with the japanese, as far as the a concern for the judge from the evidence they have. later they1, 2 days drop another one. who would be stupid enough to drop their only bonds in three

.ays gods, theyen of the all wanted to avoid occupation. decided. there is some good lawyerly language thinking about issuing. some of this has to do with the fact that they want to take this slope. the rv is legislated revolt again, we will go slow on this. thing, we have the soviets that are having military

success, and by now they really don't have a public in manchuria. there is also this. we talked about how nobody knew about radiological poisoning in all these other things. the other thing for the japanese is the issue is i will go into my, and voice. compromisedfatally if the yankee devils have more than one of these rings. they can sanitize beaches. the majority of your casualties god doth the result

vaporized, your plan to get that one last decisive victory is fatally compromised. we might be making too much out of this rate it may be just the fact that the americans standoff you have two consider the technical occasions, and americans are already working that out. the army is not quite signed on to any of the worst-case complete, which is unconditional surrender. no parenting that the world will survive as an institution. the allies notified beale mutual .gencies

they still want to come out of ins with the coco kokutai place. each had a different understanding of this. the emperor's understanding turns out to have been the most rational understanding. they cut of all still gone wrong. aquino andl had to the emperor were concerned about the army. not remaining loyal. the second most important man in japan between august 9 of august 18 he really holds some powerful cards. there's the council of the return admirals and accounts the retired field marshal sisi and when the ever goes to them to get support of how to accept

boston, they all say keep fighting. all the old warhorses from the previous wars assailant he fighting. manages, despite all this, to consolidate his position with the royal princes. and with the political level, the suzuki, the cabinet. it is in flux, japan is almost without a government. they are on the verge of becoming a failed state. hirohito is walking a very thin line. he could be kidnapped or killed at any moment all the way to the mountains or killed more one of his sons or his brothers placed in his place and he knows that. back in japanese emperor'se will see

getting retired and new emperors being brought up. there is precedent for that and he knows it. this comes back to the diplomatic transition. causes and confusion. mean?s i instead of causing more clarity, a cause for confusion. the ever has his speech wired is working overtime, or five guys using confusion text to come up with the right language for this thing. you have the emperor here, the supreme council to the direction of war.

and he takes more and more action. he is really walking the line. i'm not trying to make a hero out of hirohito. he is the supreme warlord. he is the guy in charge of japan when they go in. but i do it to say he is walking a very fine line. we will talk about his motivation. ist really sealed the deal --the fourth japan'sfor us, to decision is not making a decision.

whatever the prevailing consensus is gets established. that is what you decide to do. he says i am not going to fight this. be needed on toyota and may sue, but where he goes, they go to. the middle east working on his ritual suicide. -- theynotices basically swore below the loyalty to the emperor, he really puts it to him, and they keep it. that is the of a miracle as well. center broadcast.

they're running out of time and a know it. there is actually a second one on august 6 teeth. three officers tried to kidnap the emperor, and the guards division is totally loyal and the spirit these guys away. one of them might have committed suicide. continue toohito decide to surrender? he was simply trying to save the kokutai as he saw it. as lazy to his ancestors. in the imperial script of surrender, the key is this 10,000 euros line. are willing to undergo this humiliation so that each emperor can lead to his

ancestors the imperial line, unbroken in japan. and he does. we're going to get the japanese call feel initiative. get massive to insubordination all across the board. not by the army, the navy, but japan has history of when ordered against breakdown, they go running up and down the streets in mobs, behaving erratically, irrationally, like people in missouri, maybe. [laughter] , others have attributed it cowardice. trying to save his own skin. this is the only way he sees he can do it. the effect is that the emperor makes the broadcast. to endure the unendurable. not to surrender, but it was the

10,000 years from the confucian texts. we will into earth interval for 10,000 years in the evening can keep our emperor. gary peters making a gamble here. he's making a gamble that the americans are going to trade desk keep it. he thinks this is probably the way to go. he is the head of the japanese, he is hope in japan as well. pope in japan as well. he is the head of the religious in additions as well. is certainly praying, maybe not like in the west, but praying. two miracles occur after the broadcast.

there was primary evidence about why they should obey. ,ou never heard this guide for the of the stuff coming off radio had with lies about these huge victories that had taken place in the pacific. specifically, when they supposedly sank the third lead. -- fleet. why should they believe the emperor? have is a you know this is the emperor? i think this is rather fascinating in japanese culture of this was widely accepted as legitimate real of the direct descendent of the god, especially because no one ever heard his voice. bottom-up.eed more a lot of the people are dead, dying, or gone.

the more that we can love this, i suspect there's quite a bit in japanese. the japanese people can over there and start turning it into english. it deserves more attention, but , think the japanese people their cities are going up in flames one after the other, word gets around, even if your transportation of medication systems have been fatally compromised. they had ever seen defeat. 2600 years, they never surrendered but in 2600 years they had never seen this. they saw something like it for 115 years and the war states. but it was spread out over 150 years. not everybody was burning up the same time. fire has always been a japanese method of warfare. one is that the japanese armed forces and so you get all

of this collapse. but we have already heard it is not a done deal. they have to send members of the imperial family have to talk to the general. before september 2 happens there is a lot of moving around. completely not convinced it might not have to take charge. they move some of the imperial relics out of japan, out of tokyo auto august 20 and hide them. that tells me a lot. that is something that is often glossed over in ministries. they are doing some funny things. hirohito'se hero hug permission to do with that? thing is how do we get these 2.5 million, however many million it is or not in japan to surrender on all these different islands?

thousands and thousands of garrisons? i think makes this ovp is really surprise because they the army, they plan to retreat anyway, they pretty much had a drubbing. if you read these books on august storm, they are getting beat up pretty good. there is this ind is that i am not the first to surrender. some surrenders already, or somebody's getting beaten, so that does not mean i'm first. that is the final thing. line, the pacing of these events combined with all of these other things, combined in a very miraculous way to cause the decision process to get all of these things to occur quite unexpectedly. the end of the world war ii pacific is unexpected. that is submit we really to get

out because that is the contingency. was important for lamenting the surrender, the atomic bomb was the good crucial factor in the decision to surrender. thank you very much. [applause] questions? yes. this may not be a very rational view, but it seems if we had some time of irrational fear of the emperor. we did not bomb then when we could have. we allowed the japanese to hang onto to the emperor with maybe it would have been best to remove him. why did we have this view of the emperor? wise the emperor so important and why does it see like he is important to americans and the

ally decision-making, that is the question? we talked about people not being culturally astute from the military side in intelligence and all the stuff. but there are some people who knew what was going on. there are some people with familiarity to japanese culture. some of them have never been to there is some understanding inside the state department. understanding and a meeting of the minds here for these iconic figures. the perfect almost guy to go up there. he thinks he is an emperor. he is mere imaging. if i was the emperor, i would keep the emperor because i like emperors. i think that is a very powerful explanation. it is not just macarthur, he's , unitedvised by people

the state department that have tellmended do not japanese, but who is going to make everybody ok. and then the japanese emperor makes a video base. and gets everybody to surrender. he has a lot of help, but it is really him. do you really want to throw that away? there is some understanding of that before the surrender and start the united states. luckily, it is still a contingent fee. as auld still try hirohito war criminal and go to different way. it is hard to say. some have argued that was our big mistake. not trying him as a war criminal, and that is why every man woman and child into an does not necessarily think they lost because they got to keep the emperor. the difference is there today. look at japan and germany. with their problems

public relations? the problems facing the past honestly? the japanese for get a whole lot quicker. there are a lot of things in play. >> two points. >> secretary simpson knew what it was going to do it cap japan and understood the emperor in japan. in this process of convincing the japanese armed forces to surrender, the imperial navy sends out a message to all hands, explaining the background

of the decision process in tokyo. we intercepted. basically, this is solid gold evidence. we do not have to at yes, it seems like it is the real deal about what the story is. emphasizes the role of the emperor in securing the surrender. inferencery powerful that anyone who read that intercept about the role of the emperor is going to be partly impressed by the notion that this was a guy who could serve our purposes in securing the surrender. the other thing that is going to we findritical in this, out that there in the surrender situation with respect to their influence of life. we're not looking simply not only in the geopolitical considerations, the prospects of millions of japanese starving to death and and the emperor sanctioned behind rationing systems and other things is going to be vital to keeping the japanese alive. i have thought about this issue a lot.

i think it would have them very rash to try to remove the emperor right away and we were not entirely sure we had the secure surrender, and we have this food crisis situation for a couple of years the big mistake in my view was that we should keep him for a year or two years, maybe three, and at that we would insist on education and taking responsibility. knowing what we do in 1945 it would have had a rash, possibly disastrous act at that moment. as we all know, not everybody surrendered. >> people wandering out of the ones in philippines, inc. long, in 1947, on television, the rangers and is attacked by japanese junior officers 17 or

18 guys battled like. cave they have send that out without you guys to surrender. not everybody did surrender. that this one garrison, they kept fighting and they kept biting really well. i tend to go there. if you read these messages coming out, the emperor's role in this decision-making, the way we perceive it was critical, the way we presented rat. more questions? >> target of hiroshima and nagasaki? why were those cities of target? >> they were close to the

invasion area. they are actually good places if you want to pre-sanitized the beaches. but there's also the targeting considerations. they use strategic arming calculus for it. who is producing what and why not tokyo? tokyo is the emperor thing. incinerate theto emperor he might be the only half hope for the good surrender. was a mustering area. it was an enormous complex of japanese army bases. it was also the primary port of embarkation for overseas ventures. not thesaki was

original primary target. whatig arsenal, which is they were talking about, the weather was what influence not a sake. it was a tremendous shipyard, also famously the bomb burst at however.r ptos was a reset target. >> you can watch the social program on hiroshima, and nagasaki, and the end of the war on the pacific tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. that is on c-span3. >> this year, c-span is touring cities across