modest economic assumptions we expect india in 2014 to consume as much as the united states, even though per capita, energy consumption will be about 40% lower than the global usage. very important country and it is the country every year that we focus on one country and this year, it was india. and i will talk to you about this in a few minutes. one important issue i want to highlight is that the energy traits will be more and more people taking place in asia, oil, gas and coal, they are all moving to asia. 80% of coal trade in asia, three-fourths of the oil trade in asia and two-thirds of the gas trade, again in asia, they

have a destination in asia, all these fuels. now, to bring to your attention what the economics of different fuels and technologies, just to give you an idea, we expect the cost of solar and onshore wind and efficient products, that is efficient refrigerators, efficient cars, efficient lighting, they are becoming cheaper as a result of learning by doing. let me give you one example on the solar pv. china pushing the solar pv meant in the last five years, the solar pv cost declined by a factor of four. a big decline there. so they are becoming competitive in many case and efficient products are also becoming competitive.

many people who work on the oil business on the other sector, we see oil and gas, that would be efficiency gains to push the cost down but more and more oil will come from more -- the complex and of a range the cost of oil and gas production extraction will go up and it is the very reason or one of the reasons why we expect, i will come to it in a moment that we expect the oil prices may well gradually increase in the next years to come. this speaks to oil and we have seen a major growth of oil production in the united states, tied to oil, perhaps demand but when i had the privilege to --

to present in 2009, we sat here, that is a silent revolution taking place in north america with all these implications and we are seeing this as a result of lack tight oil and shale gas, huge implication for energy works for geopolitics but a lot to oil security in terms of lack tile oil but we also know that the price is a very important factor for the profitability of the many projects there and our expectation is, if the prices remain at these levels, we may lose significant amount of oil in the united states. for example, the prices remain about $50, we may lose from today about 2 million barrels per day and it is the very reason putting together the --

all other factors for just what we see today, what is happening in iraq. our production expectation of iraq is revised down. another major driver of the lots of oil in the markets today. and oil demand growing higher than 1 million barrels per day, we expect that the oil prices will gradually increase toward 2020, $80 is the price that the market can rebalance in order to bring profits to the investors and it is our expectations, our essential expectation that the oil prices will gradually increase, looking at what will happen in the united states with the current prices and also the investment loss and what is

happening in canada, brazil and other parts of the world. so, our expectation of our essential scenario is oil prices will gradually move toward 2020 go to $80 price level. but we also know this other school of thought which -- all respect to that say $50, ten years is the new normal. and this is something that one could -- one shouldn't exclude and we also looked what would it take $50, we believe and what would it mean, $50 for the next ten years, good news or bad news, for whom good, for whom bad. we think to be able to see $50 work ten years or beyond, we

should be able to see that the previous picture i showed you is completely wrong. about $50, the u.s., canada, brazil, continue to increase its production, number one, not enough, number one. the second condition is we will see a stable middle east and production growth from the middle east, iraq and other countries increase the production. this is needed in order to see a $50 vert. a $50 vert will bring a lot of benefits to oil importers because they are going to pay less money and oil import will go down, will provide a relief from the trade balance, definitely good news the first sight, but another way of thinking is the implications on

the oil security, today about half of the global oil exports go from middle east, a $50 vert, we would see that this 50% exports, global exports will jump from middle east will jump to 75%. because many high cost areas will lose ground because they will not be able to produce that much. we have not seen since 1970s that the oil exports such a high share, 75% of the meeting, this will have implications for the oil security, especially given the current term oil and some of the countries are in division. iraq, libya, syria, yemen and other countries therefore, low

oil prices many, many years may not necessarily be all good news. this is one point. another one is that the -- the recent years, but also under energy efficiency, there are many palsies push efficiency, i will mention more in a minute, energy efficiency policies may not be very strong if the oil prices are at a low because a strong drive for the governments or for the companies for the industries to use energy more efficiently if the price of energy is rather low. so, to sum up the old cliche of the lower the prices, the better it is for the consumers may not halt automatically anymore.

this is a message that you wanted to give. and the other message he wanted to give is that in a $50 world, the revenues of the many key producers will be substantially reduced, number one. number two, lower prices mean the market much stronger than it otherwise might be, therefore, putting pressure on the energy markets and therefore, we believe the $50 world is not a likely scenario for a very long time and it may not be a scenario which is desirable looking at the broader picture. asia, the bulk of the growth will come from. today, look at the asian markets, the demand and the production is more of less

similar to each other, but we are seeing the demand for growth grow substantially coming from china, india and again, southeast asian countries and the production growth will be very modest. so, between production and the demand there is a 400 bcm that many companies in the world, many countries in the world, an eye on. the u.s., australia, african countries, russia, get the market there. and this, of course, very important but there are two uncertainties here. there are many companies around in this room, answer it as well, on the demand side, one on the production side. on the demand side, why gas is a

flexible fuel and it is much less carbon than coal. in many countries, coal is much, much, cheaper than natural gas today. for example, if you want to be a power plant in thailand, you want a coal-fired power plant and gas-fired power plant, to produce electricity from coal is 50% 5-0, per cent cheaper than produce through gas. in the absence of any regulation, which is in the case in most of the asian countries, they go for coal. therefore there is a pressure on gas from coal and the second pressure comes from renews. renews are becoming more and more competitive. on the other hand, they are supported through different mechanism by the governments.

so, on the demand side, there is uncertainty how gas will get off being -- on one hand by coal, the other by renews. this on the demand side. on the production side, the growth you see here, the big chunk of the growth is coming from shale gas and the methane from china. it is much lower than the chinese government estimates, but even this may not happen or it may be even higher. so i think it is a big uncertainty, shale gas future of china and therefore, this 400 bcm may be changing as a result of the success or the failure of the shale gas coming here from china in the next years to come.

talking about china, one of the most impressive stories in the history of energy now is coming or approaching to an end. it is the chinese energy demand growth story. put the stop on all energy developments in the last years to come. total energy. if you look at the last years, the energy demand growth and gdp, the economic growth, was more or less similar to each other. when you look at the future, however, we see while the economy continues to grow at a slower pace but going to grow,

energy demand growth is -- this doesn't look anymore like this. okay. this doesn't look -- >> there you go. >> okay. energy demand growth. so, energy demand growth, much lower pace. i will explain what it is. first of all, we saw the first signs of decoupling 2014 and 2015. it is happening mainly for two reasons, one, chinese government is putting a lot of efforts and energy efficiency. that's number one. second and more important, many energy colleagues don't follow very closely, chinese economy is changing its stature moving from a heavy industrial-based economy

to a service-based economy, slowly but surely. so, what you see is a divorce between the economic growth and energy demand growth in china. especially the case for coal. and i will come to that in a moment. so this is the first change in china. energy demand growth and economic growth is decoupling. the second change in china is the following. while the -- you look at the past years, you saw only two colors. coal and oil. and we are now seeing many new colors coming in the picture. especially coal is losing market shares significantly, 2014 and

2015, chinese coal slowed down and it is in decline. let's don't forget that china consumes half of the world's coal alone, but this is a decline. oil will continue to grow, but you will see gas, nuclear power and more and more renewables, hydropower solar being part of the dynamics. so, in china, we see two things happening. one, economic growth and energy demand growth is decoupling. [ coughing ] second, more energy mix is much more diverse compared to today. now, as i mentioned to you, every year, we focus on one country and this year, we work on india and our message is india is moving to the center stage of world energy affairs.

in terms of coal, oil and solar, if you look at them, in terms of coal, number one, importer of coal is today in india, less than -- close to 250 million people, they have no electricity. and to generate electricity from coal is the cheapest option for india. so, it will be, in my view, very unfair to say the indian, don't do that while the 250 million people have no access to electricity. of course, they are doing it, but it has implications for everybody. this is one issue. second, oil. india will be the main driver, we believe, of the global oil demand, but if you look at even

2015 numbers, very strong growth coming from india and it is very obvious why. india is the car ownership is very low. in the united states, 750 people out of 1,000 people own a car. europe, 500 out of 1,000. in india, 20 out of 1,000 people own a car. with the increasing income levels, which we see very strong growth from india, they buy cars, as many other people did and it fuels the oil demand growth. second, india is pushing, unlike china, india is pushing the heavy manufacturing but 90% of the new production coming from india, cement coming from india, it means trucks are imported and

as a result of that india is playing a very important role in the oil market in the next years to come. in the past, we always get the china numbers, the tables of the oil -- oil demand, but i think china, we need to look more and more india numbers as well. solar pv, the government pushed solar pv very strongly, about 20%, we believe, of all new global pv will come from india alone. so, therefore, india will be a new and emerging country in terms of the global energy markets for the next years to come. the most important markets here, we look at the power markets, we see that the oil production is declining, nuclear is increasing, somewhat mainly from asia.

china is the leader, followed by ind -- india, korea, japan starting the -- restarting the nuclear generation slowly, but surely. gas is growing strongly, electricity is a base but also complement renewables and coal is losing significant market share. today about more than 40% of share of coal in the generation and number one fuel, there is some increase coming mainly from india and the southwest asian countries. the growth here is much lower sí coal is losing market share and lose, the number one fuel because renewables are becoming the number one fuel in the electricity generation.

when i say renewables here, two things important to note and they are different issues. one, in the past, the growth of renewables came mainly from hydro power. in the future, we expect the biggest growth will come from wind and solar power, the one change. second change, in the past, the bulk of growth from renewable came from the oecd countries, from the rich countries, but now, we are seeing the growth is coming mainly from the emerging countries of renews. let me give you one number. 2014, renew investments in china were bigger than u.s. plus all european countries plus japan put together. only in china. so therefore, in the power system, we see a major change and following what i've told you

before, the renewable is the is the fuel of choice and the next 20 years, out of every $10, invest in pow erica pasty, $6 go to renew investments highlighting the importance of renewables. energy efficiency. this is an issue as our colleagues know very well that we highlight all the time because it is changing the picture. everybody has to understand, to understand demand growth, what is happening in energy efficiency? and i can tell that you in the year 2005, ten years ago, only about 15% of the global energy consumption was covered by the energy efficiency mandatory energy efficiency measures. only 15%.

today, it is almost doubled, it is out of two major factors. many factors but two very important. one, chinese government takes this very, very seriously for many reasons. from cost saving to environment implications. two, energy security. if you use energy less, your import dependency will be less. this is one reason, china. the second reason is in the last four or five years, had high energy prices, this was an important driver of the energy efficiency measures put in place. and i will look at the future, we expect that more and more energy efficiency measures will be put in place. but i can tell you in a $50, i

believe the energy efficiency penetration will be much lower than this just to see the other part of the coin. and i expect on the other side a good result from paris, strong signals from paris, may accelerate energy efficiency improvement. so to save time for our discussion, let me finish by the discussion on climate change in paris. what we have seen is something unique when it comes to climate change. some of you may remember two other cities, kyoto and copenhagen. i believe paris will be much different than copenhagen and kyoto with all its consequences. first of all, we have never

seen, ladies and gentlemen, that more than 150 countries came together and said climate change is a serious issue and he will reduce emissions by 2030. government gave commitments, pledges. of course some of those pledges are less ambitious than others and, as they stand now, nobody can claim that those governments will fulfill their commitments as they are, not mandatory pledges. but still, there is a strong intention there and there is a political momentum which is getting stronger and stronger. today more than 100 leaders are in paris which messed up the traffic in paris by the way. i heard from my colleagues

nobody can take their cars. but still very important. and they hopefully come up with a suggestion, an agreement, which i will elevate in a moment. but just wanted to tell you what happens if those pledges are forfeited. what happens if it's forfeited? as i said, some of them may be less ambitious. it will be first implication for the climate change. the scientific community told us that if you want to overt in the future, which is more or less similar to existing one today, temperature increase should be maximum two degrees celsius.

and if this pledges are implemented, temperature increase will be 2.7 degrees celsius. and the difference between 2 degrees and 2.7 degrees celsius is not something that you just take your jacket off and adapt. it will be tremendous implications for the rather fragile equilibrium of our planet. this is the first implication. second implication on the energy sector, as you know, about two-thirds of the emissions causing climate change come from the energy sector. so if you want to solve the climate problem, we have to solve the problem in the energy sector. we looked, what does it mean if the pledges are forfeited, what does it mean for the energy sector?

and electric generation. it increased in the last years and continue to increase, but there will be such an amount of emissions coming there. and then we look at the future, and it will grow. and it's a good thing. the problem is we don't have a problem with the electricity generation growing. electricity means, energy means, better lives, economic growth, comforts. the problem is not with energy, the problem is with the emissions. so, with the pledges in place, what happens is if electric generation grows, emissions remain stable, unlike in the past, they don't grow. mainly, it is the result of two things. one, share of renewals are increasing, second share of coal is declining while the share of gas is increasing.

you look at all these 150 pledges, the countries say i will do this and they also say i will do this by doing this and this and this, what policies government choose to reach their targets, energy efficiency in addition to gas replacing coal are one of the common themes. so therefore pledges are that they can change the picture significantly. now before finishing the presentation, i wanted to tell you something about the energy agency if i may. some of you may know that i started my job as the executive director some three months ago

and we had a meeting with all the foreign ministers, minister from china, indonesia, thailand, brazil, many other countries, and we came up with the new strategy, modernization of the i iea, and i wanted to share with you what does it mean. first of all, in addition to our members, we have now mexico starting to be a member, which is very good news for us, and chile, as well. we have agreement with china, indonesia and thailand to become our associate member countries. many others are, we have discussions with them. forfeit our first pillar, mainly

opening the doors of the iea to emerging countries and leaving the image of the rich man's energy club being truly an international organization and opening our doors to emerging countries. the second pillar is putting more emphasis on the organization of the oil organization. we want to put more emphasis on the gas supply security working on that. and third, while we continue our position in the traditional fields and technologies, we would like to be putting more and more emphasis on the new technologies and aim to be the, if i may say so, bank of energy efficiency. so these are our three pillars endorsed by our ministers and i wanted to take this opportunity to tell you and close the presentation here and finish our

presentation, that the low oil prices, then more years. it is likely to be daunting. on the other hand, not necessarily very good news for the consumers if you look at the big picture ranging from energy security to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly. and the choices india will make will affect everybody. let me give you one number. india in the next 20 years, there will be more than 300 million people added to the indian population. and the buildings that they are going to leave they have not been built yet. so what kind of building costs they will have. the insulation standards. mandatory efficiency policies

will be very important for all of us. given the sheer size of the growth in india. china, as i said, is going through a less growth trajectory now and also the choices that china is making is in line with more diversification, nuclear gas renewals, a different picture than we had in the past. we think the energy transition as i mentioned, more renewables, more efficiency, but whether or the not this will be a big move will depend on the results from paris. without getting a clear signal from paris, there will not be a major change in the flow of

investments and energy sector and as we all know, energy sector have long lead times and therefore the signal, is clear signal from paris therefore will be of vital importance. finally, the ability to get the energy sector to challenge both in terms of oil and gas, when we look at the amount of challenges, both climate change and local pollution on energy is a vital one. therefore we are aiming looking truly international. and the entire spectrum of energy issues. thank you very much for your attention. thank you. [ applause ] >> thank you very much for that

wonderful presentation. we are going to open it up for questions. we are on the record as you can tell by the huge number of cameras back here. and we'll please wait for a microphone to state your name and affiliation and ask your question in the form of a question. while you think of some of your hottest and most pressing questions, i wanted to start with a couple. before you arrived today, maybe picking up where you left off, we are watching the world leaders that you mentioned gathered in paris, already talking about what needs to happen in paris and also after paris. that is a unique feature you talked about is that there is a focus on while there is a lot that has been achieved, a lot more still needs to be done. one of the themes that you bring up and it's here in your conclusion slides is really that transition from china being the growing emerging consumer to being a transitioning major consumer. clearly very important to energy markets because of its size and

its power of being such a large consumer. and then india really being the emerging consumer of the next several decades. part of the challenge in these paris climate talks is to prove to a lot of these emerging developing economies that we have figured out how to grow and decarbonize at the same time. you were just in india. how well are we selling that message? >> so i think you reconcile the economic growth and the environmental consideration is a big challenge and i think we have to be fair here. if you want to be credible, we have to be fair. you look at the u.s., europe, japan, china, the economic growth has been mainly on the base of using a lot of coal.

and they use a lot of coal and put it in the atmosphere and it is still there, a big chunk of it. we cannot afford to have the same pattern to continue because we will not be able to reach our climate targets. so therefore one thing we suggest is that either the countries should not build anymore inefficient coal fired power plants and the ones who are building it should have some -- such as africa, such as india. or there should be some mechanisms to provide them cheaper sustainable energy sources. other than that, we cannot oblige african countries or india, other poor countries, to

choose for the more expensive options in the absence of providing any incentives for them. therefore, i believe there will be an agreement hopefully in paris and hopefully there will be an agreement where all important if not all countries are signing but how this agreement is put together will be very important in the context of having all major emerging countries on board. and this means that one should look at the economic development prospects together and here once again i would be urging the countries to come up with some pragmatic solutions here rather than dogmatic policies which will go across the board to all

the countries the same policies. i hope and i'm confident that we will come up with some solutions which will get the different sensitivities of different parties in paris. >> and sticking with the theme of decarbonization for a minute, many folks recognize your organization as one of sound energy policy and energy analysis, but you also do a lot of work on technology, as well. we've seen already at the start of the negotiations an announcement from 19 of the world's largest r&d investors and some of the world's most forwards leaning billionaires, this commitment to invest in clean energy r & d. i have never seen a pathway that doesn't include a boat lode of carbon and the efficiencies you have. what is it that we need to be doing to chief decarbonization? >> i think especially in the

power generation, in order to increase the number of options we have in hand, we need to bring the costs down. how we can bring the costs down is a result of making more development and this would bring the cost down. people, if they don't use enough renewables, not because they don't like renewables, but they're not in line with coal because it's cheaper. so therefore research and development bring the cost of technologies down and definitely different types of nuclear pourer, carbon capture and storage. i think doubles the efforts of these countries as you mentioned recover all the clean area technologies including the nuclear and ccs and iea, we are

very keen to be the coordinating body of this effort. >> and finally before we open it up to the audience, you have been a long time voice in arguing for not being complacent when oil prices are low. this is yet another period in time. and yet we here in the united states seem to be slightly seized by the idea of lower for longer to the extent to which we've got several committees within our u.s. congress looking to sell portions of our strategic petroleum reserve, we have a burgeoning movement of people who believe that you should invest in fossil fuel energy resources, oil and gas included because the resource is so abundant and we should be taking a new and different approach to how we deal with oil and gas development.

and you've said you don't think $50 oil is likely or necessarily desirable for a lot of our energy policy goals and objectives. what message would you have for u.s. policymakers in how they are treating not only oil supply security but the cultivation of the resource space that resulted from the quiet revolution in 2009? >> thank you very much. first of all, i should say that it would be extremely wrong, mistake, a grave mistake, if our attention to oil security is indexed to changes in the oil prices. namely prices go down, therefore everything is okay. no need for oil security prices to go up, oh, my god, this is the panic. it is not approaching the issues. look at iraq, syria, libya,

yemen, algeria, many countries there, many here would know better than me. i don't think that this problem is immediately solved tomorrow. many of them are issues for many years to come. therefore i would think that the oil security at least if i may say so in the iea will be the guiding principal at least for the next four years to come. the second on the investment, )÷ one thing is important to understand. even as a result of paris, even out of the economic problem weakening, even the oil demand growth in the next ten years was zero. so no oil demand growth. it stays as it is. we still have to produce new oil

amount of 4 million per day just to compound the decline in the existing fields. so the fields are like human beings. when they are new and young, the production goes up. they come to a certain level and the production goes down. so we have to find new fields produce new fields just to compensate those decline. it's the main story each year we are to bring the production therefore we need investments. and my worry is as i mentioned in the beginning investments are in a decline 15 and most likely 16 and if it comes together with the increase in the demand which i believe it will come, we may have some strong challenges in the markets. so therefore from investment points of view, i am worried

whatever the demand growth is, if the demand growth is strong, we may see challenge in the markets for the next years to come. >> okay, let's bring in friends from the audience. we'll take tom over here and we'll take three questions at a time, then you next. >> thank you. my name is tom kutler, i'm an independent consultant. thank you for your presentation. my question is about india. it is the country focus for this year's energy outlook. you mentioned at the iea in paris that china, indonesia and thailand have all become, quote, associate members of whatever or however you describe it. so i was struck by the fact that india was not on that list. do you expect india to reach agreement on associate status and if not, why?

if so, ha are the issues holding that up? thank you very much. >> and the gentleman in the blue sweater. green, blue. >> thank you. my name is hal whackman, retired from the world bank. thank you for an excellent presentation. you did not mention the words carbon tax in your entire presentation or carbon pricing, if you like. i'm wondering -- i'm assuming that all of your projections are assuming no such thing ever happens. could you say a few words about that, please? >> one more right over here for the first round. >> i'm from atlantic council. i wanted to ask you about the implication of the low price environment on the shale gas boom in the united states and beyond. thank you. >> so excellent question about india.

we are working with india very long time, i was just friday, as sarah mentioned, i was in new delhi, had meetings with all three ministers. we had excellent cooperation. i think there are some bureaucratic challenges and i hope that very soon we will have sold and have india as part of the greater iea family. but we are working very closely with india and other countries. there's no doubt about it. this would be a definitely not good news, at least for the iea not to work with india, making major efforts in the efficiencies, solar, other parts

of energy. and i think we can share expertise with the india colleagues. and the tax carbon price, in my view, carbon price is the best solution to our climate problem. to be excellent, it would be easiest straight forward and ek nomly the most efficient one. however, if you have the carbon tax in some countries and not in the others, then maybe some imbalances in terms of the competitiveness of the economies of those countries who put the carbon price. and given the current political environment in paris and before paris, after paris, to have an

agreement on international carbon price in paris, for me, would be a very welcome surprise. i should put it this way. because it will be very difficult knowing different countries, different sensitivities. but i fully agree with you the best way to address the climate change problem would be putting your price on carbon. the low oil prices will have also implications for the shale gas in the u.s. and elsewhere. putting pressure downward pressure on the shale gas production, even though it will not affect directly as much as it was in the shale oil.

and the current price, perhaps i could say current price levels of gas in the united states i expect need to go up sometime soon in on the to make one question there. another one here and over here. so, right here. go ahead and stand up so he can see. >> adam siegel. you are an advocate of moving toward clean energy policy, yet, in forecasting without exception as we go back, it's been pessimistic when it comes to solar and wind. 2010, predicted 180 gigawatts of solar by 2024. we passed that in january 2015. your slides had roughly 50% reduction in solar prices by

2040. the world will exceed that within a year. why this -- considering the advocacy of renewable energy, why the continued repeat pessimism? >> hi. jenny mandel. report er with energy wire. my question is regarding your comments changing the culture of iea. and moving it from being less of a rich man's club and bringing in new countries. so my question is what changes within the organization would you expect to come with that change, with bringing in several you new countries that have a different economic and development perspective. thank you. >> and one more right here.

>> good afternoon. we focus on oil and gas and energy. looking at your presentation, how do you look at africa now producing oil and do you think of africa being a member of the iea and if so looking at the oil production, what do you advise, oil exported or refined oil, what do you think working in this between now and 2030. thank you. >> okay. thank you very much for these very good questions. about our projections, first of all, we make on the base of the

policies. the numbers i show you with the existing policies of the governments, we will see what kind of trends we will see. we also have projections with strong climate policies. in that case it's much stronger. many like you mention why our renewable projections are so conservative, we went back and we look at them. 95% of our projections are on the spot. upward was the solar projections and here two things. what happened is that governments change their policies and supported the solar

much more stronger and solar showed a strong increase. and we increase our projections. and i'll be very happy in what you say is true next year the cost of solar will go up 50% down. i would be surprised if it is the case. i'll be very happy next year when i came here of course if i'm invited to revise our solar projections upward. but what we do is that we say with these policies you go here, but if you want to see more solar or more anything, you have to change your policies and then we can push it more. just for the sake of the colleagues knowledge, in a solar very important and we put a lot of emphasis the share of solar and energy mix is not 10%, not

5%, not 1%. it is 0.1%. so the odd of magnitude of things. but sole similar important. india, china, other countries pushing it and i hope to see more solar next year. what are we going to change in our organization not to be rich man's energy club? what i would like to see, we want to be truly international. we will open our doors to emerging countries. i'm very happy that mexican government decided to be a member after the forfeit and we have now series of countries who are interested to work with us. we are changing are our culture for example next year we will work on an issue environment which is specific to the

emerging country, namely local pollution in the cities. a big issue in asia, latin america, african countries, what kind of management is needed is in order to get policies to reduce emissions in the cities. and we're getting more and more from those countries to work with us. we will advise those governments ranging from energy efficiency to the oil policies. and africa, a very good question, long question. in fact africa has a lot of course oil and gas potential in addition to the established

produce such as nigeria and angola. of course some needs to be used at home, some need to be exported because the revenues are very important parts of many of those governments budgets. but the main problem in africa today in my view is that two out of three africans have no access to electricity. and this is a shame. and africa has a lot of oil gas renewable energies. we have strong solar radiation. a lot of sun. even more than washington, d.c. so therefore you need to see that africa makes the most out

of it. as i said, many people have no access to electricity. money is coming to africa. but energy coming mainly to export the african oil and gas to other countries. today $2 out of $3 is for the oil and gas and coal projects to be exported which brings money to the government, but still energy is very poor and we work with african countries that want to be a part of the iea and also working with others. >> we promised we would get you out of here on time because i know you have a train to catch. i just want to thank you again to presenting the outlook. we hope you will come back and do it once again. and please do keep us posted on all of the great things that

you're doing at the international energy agency. thanks. [ applause ] on the next "washington journal," former general counsel stewart baker of the american civil lib erties union discusse nsa changes to collection of phone records and how they affect information gathered in terrorism related cases. the imp sigs dennis car done of new york university talks about sport rescuelated concussions and what's being done to protect athletes and schools and in the pros. after that, david savage previews upcoming cases before the high court. including ones on redistricting and affirmative action. plus, your calls, comments and tweets. "washington journal" live at 7:00 a.m. eastern on cspan.

>> every weekend on american history tv on cspan 3, 48 hours of programs and events ta tell our nation's story. saturday morning beginning at 11:00 eastern, we're live from williamsburg, bringing you scenes from the 1770s, the eve of the american revolution with re-enactments. and tweets about the era with experts. sunday morning at 10:00, we'll hear the aspirations of presidential hopefuls from 1987, former defense secretary donald rumsfeld shares his thoughts and dick chinn explores the possible run in the 1996 presidential race. >> i used to think of it as a political ul