switch in the right states. at least between 500,000 and 800,000 vote switches would have meant a dewey win in the electoral college. that's a relatively small window of victory. still in electoral college a pretty big win. and so any questions or concerns? all right. when we come back on friday, we'll continue our look at world war ii. taking a look at combat operations in the european theater. thank you. have a good rest of the day. see you on friday. you are dismissed. the c-span radio app makes it easy to continue to follow the 2016 election wherever you are. it's free to download from the apple app store or google play. get audio coverage and up to the minute schedule information for c-span radio and c-span television plus podcast times for our popular public affairs,

book, and history programs. stay up toate on all the election coverage. c-span's radio app means you always have c-span on the go. >> up next on history bookshelf, david pietrusza discussed his book "1948, harry truman's improbable victory and the year that transformed america" scliebing the political climate surrounding the election and the main players in the campaign. this was recorded at the clifton park halfmoon library in clifton, new york. it's about an hour, 10 minutes. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to the clifton park-halfmoon public library. we're very pleased to have david pietrusza here to talk about his new book "1948" the year that transformed america. david is the author of a number

of books. he's been here in the past to talk about his book about arnold rothstein, 1960, lbj versus jfk versus nixon. the homespun wit and wisdom of calvin coolidge, and ted williams, my life in pictures. he's also written and produced a documentary, local heroes, baseball in capital district dimes. reviewed for his harry truman book talk about how lively it is, illuminating portraits of four candidates and the even handed appraisal of truman is especially compelling. the journey that he takes to get us to election day is one that he has definitively become the best at leading. in his past, his work has been compared to theodore white's classic "the making of the president" series. after three straight home runs, i think pietrusza is the undisputed champion of chronicling american's

presidential campaigns. he holds a masterscome pain from the university of albany and has served on the city council in amsterdam, new york, and is the recipient of the 2011 excellence in letters and arts awards at the university at albany. in addition to doing presidential biographies and elections. he's also a member of sabca. the baseball historian organization. he is a casey winning judge and jury and an edgar award finalist for his book on arnold rothstein. ladies and gentlemen, david pietrusza. >> thank you, natalie. and it's great to be back here again. and the question that people always ask me about my books is, why did you write this book?

and americans claim to hate politics. but we love elections. we love sports. my sports background, your sports background. the whole country is crazy about it. we love the competition. we love the 162-game series and things going down to the seventh game of the world series. we love masarosky skitting the home run and bill buckner and mookie wilson. 1948 is one of those masarossky-mookie-bill buckner elections. this is when the underdog comes back and pulled it out when everyone has written them off. that's harry truman's improbable victory. that's the year that was. that's the election that was. the great iconic comeback. the great surprise. the great surprise, one the

pundits are proven so spectacularly wrong. that's another thing we love. we love to be smarter than all the guys you see on tv and writing the newspaper columns. and harry truman, who was just an ordinary harry, the only -- the only president of the 20th century who hadn't gone to college. he's a high school graduate. not the only one since. not the last one. the only one in the 20th century. you have to go back to andrew johnson, to abraham lincoln, to find such a common man. and not just a common man, but a fellow who's been a failure at business. his famed haberdashery shop in downtown kansas city that goes bust and he's left to pay off those debts for 20 years and he pays them all off. he won't declare bankruptcy.

he has a standard of honor and he will pay all its debts. he also has a standard of honor which marks him in his earlier political career, where he is the product, and he's known for really most of his active political career as being the product of one of america's most spectacularly corrupt political machines. this is something that, like al smith in 1928, is never really able to transend. he's a product of tameny, and he gets whooped by herbert hoover for that and a number of other reasons. harry truman is the product of this pendergast machine in kansas city. he's the head of the county government for them. they steal millions and millions of dollars. harry truman never takes a dime. he has a link to what goes on in some cases.

he has to get things done. he would sit down. he would sit down and pour out his soul in private letters which he never sent to anyone. he would hole up in this hotel and write out these letters which were found decades after his death, as he would wrestle with these questions. am i a public servant or am i a crook? am i doing the right thing? he's conflicted by this, but he stays in this machine, and he eventually determines to get out of local government. he wants to be a congressman. but he's such a pupal, such a nobody, even at that time, that it's like, no, harry, you can't be a congressman. can i be -- can i be abogoverno? no, you can't be governor. when the machine can't find anyone to run for the united states senate in 1934 -- okay.

we now return to our regularly scheduled programming. so, the machine can't find anyone to run for senate, united states senate, in 1934. you think they could. it's going to be a big democratic year. harry pulls it off, but he goes into the senate again. he's like a nobody. a nobody. and then disaster strikes. 1939. boss pendergast on good friday goes to the federal pen for corruption. and people say, well, that's the end of harry truman now. who's going to want him? who's going to want this pendergast puppet still to remain in the united states senate? his mentor is finished, and so is he. faces a three-way primary. and wins. he goes to all the small towns and courthouses and masonic temples and every other place he

knows in missouri. and wows them. pulls it off. and that's a valuable lesson when it comes to 1948. and the democratic party is split once again. but he still, he's back in the senate. who is he? he's given an assignment. look into all these military bases, defense contracting things we're doing to win the war against hitler. are we getting a bang for the buck? are we spending our money wisely? harry truman goes around, gets in his car, really no staff, no expense. delivers a remarkable report that, no, we're not. we're wasting a hell of a lot of money while our boys are fighting and dying in europe and north africa and in the south pacific. and we have to stop it. here's how. people say, gee whiz, he did that intelligently, honestly, in

a nonpartisan manner. maybe there's something to this harry truman guy. which takes us to 1944. franklin roosevelt is looking for a fourth term. the war is still on. and in 1940, he had dumped his vice president, john nance gardener, who had grown a bit too conservative for the new deal. and he puts in henry a. wallace, his secretary of the agriculture, who is a very left-wing kind of new-age kind of guy for back then. and he forces wallace on the ticket in 1940. the democratic party does not really want him. and in 1944, roosevelt is getting the word back. you keep this guy on the ticket, he could cost you a million votes. roosevelt is a great politician.

he knows what this means. and he says, i forced henry wallace on the party once. i can't do it twice. i can't do it twice. he's got to go. not in so many words. not in so many words, but he eventually slits wallace's throat. who does he replace him with? the guy you replace him with is a guy who's not too southern, not too northern, not too conservative, not too liberal. respect eed by the unions but n really in the pocket of the unions. that's harry truman. he fits in all the slots. they put him on the ticket in 1944. and by april 1945, franklin roosevelt is dead. and harry truman goes to the white house and says to eleanor roosevelt, can i pray for you? and she says, no. we need to pray for you.

because you are the fellow who is in trouble now. he starts off very popular. the war is won. the atomic bombs are dropped on japan. there's vj-day. america is at peace finally. and harry truman reaches a popularity level of 87%. that goes downhill real fast. and people, some of that is beyond his control, but there are reasons why his popularity drops. he's not franklin roosevelt. right now, all the republicans are saying, who is the next reagan? boy, we miss reagan a lot. and back then, it was, by god. by god, how we miss fdr among the democrats. and harry truman was no fdr.

so there's a longing for the lost leader there. and also, he's prone to certain gaffes. his appointments are not always the strongest. there's talk of the missouri gang, as there was an ohio gang with warren harding, of people, sort of hangers-on, small timers who are put into positions way above their abilities. you see the old new dealers being shoved out of the cabinet, not just henry wallace, who is fired by harry truman for being a pro-stalinist, really, giving speeches against the truman foreign policy, but you also have where with harry truman, the country turns against the party and the leader which brings us into war. if you don't believe me, ask either bush. ask lyndon johnson. woodrow wilson after world war

i. what happens to the democratic party. what happens to winston churchill, a pretty good war leader in 1945. he's out the door. so this is a normal thing. the readjustment means a lot of things get thrown out, including parties in power. republicans take the house and the senate in 1946. they're on a roll. harry truman keeps going up and down in the popularity. by the spring of 1948, he's down in the low 30s in terms of popularity. and it's not only a republican/democrat thing going on here. the democratic party is splitting three ways. not just two ways, not just you've got some sort of, oh,

carter/teddy kennedy thing going on. not a george bush/pat buchanan thing going on. but it's being split, the left, the center, and the right. on the right, you have the southern segregationist democrats. franklin roosevelt had talked a good game with black civil rights, but he really hadn't done anything. remember, that the army, the navy in world war ii are still segregated. there's no move to desegregate anything in the country. harry truman proposes a big civil rights program at the beginning of 1948. the southern democrats are simply aghast by this, and beyond that, they feel personally betrayed because they had thought of harry truman as one of their own. his mother had been in an internment camp run by the union

during the civil war. confederate sympathizers. and if you look at harry's statements and you look at his private correspondence, he's not exactly a bleeding heart liberal on the topic. but he puts this forward, and the southerners are aghast. they start talking about a strategy in which they will punish harry truman. they will punish the democratic party. they will make the democratic party come to its senses on civil rights and states' rights and all of these things. and they will do this by putting the election into the electoral college and brokering a deal. and one of the people involved in that is a young man, a young governor of south carolina named jay strahm thurman, decorated war veteran, former judge, and considered at the time to be kind of a progressive liberal new deal kind of democrat. the new face of the south.

except that once he gets caught up in this, when the south carolina legislators and such start talking against the truman civil rights program, he joins with the dixiecrats largely centered in mississippi and alabama in going to these regional meetings to say what can we do about harry truman? now, the irony of this, and the irony of this when thurman starts being carried away by this, talking about how the federal government's bayonets will not force black people into our swimming pools, into our homes, into our schools, is the irony is that jay strahm thermman has a black illegitimate daughter. that's one wing of the democratic party in 1948. the other wing, which seems actually to be more troublesome to harry truman, is the henry wallace wing. and that is the extreme left

wing of the democratic party, beyond the new dealers, beyond the eleanor roosevelts, beyond the hubert humphreys. which is in many cases communist dominated. communist party united states of america. not just left-wing, not just radical whatever, but actual party members. and as wallace -- wallace has a problem in that he's been cast aside not once but twice. and both times involving harry truman. you would not be human unless you were bitter about this. and you have this bitter former vice president of the united states with left-wing proclivities anyway, and now he's got two reasons, two reasons to be against harry truman personally. and he is talked into not a primary challenge against truman but a third-party challenge. what's their strategy? again, what's their strategy?

since the strategy is being dictated from the extreme left wingers, from the people being controlled by really moscow, when you get down to it, it's got to be that they're again trying to not win an election but to send a message to truman. and say, look, you change your foreign policy, democratic party. you change your foreign policy, harry truman, because we will punish you, and we will give the election to the republicans. and then we'll go back to the way it was under franklin roosevelt, with a guy we can deal with. in 1944, the communist party of the united states had actually endorsed franklin roosevelt, did gnaw run a candidate. kind of one big happy family at one point. so truman is being squeezed on the left and on the right. he's in trouble. and how can he hold together a coalition which will have another electoral votes to win if the south is going to be

stolen away from him by the dixiecrats and where does henry wallace hold his strength? not all over the country, but in big states like new york, in new york city, in southern california, in illinois. where he can be the balance of power in those states and tip states which a democrat should win into the republican column. so the republican column. who's the republican going to be? same answer at some point as we have now. looking forward to 2012. a very crowded, confused field. typical. typical when you have a president, an inkcumbent who is vulnerable. when the opportunity is there, a lot of opposition candidates come out. and the four front-runners that

year, governor thomas e. dewey of new york, new york is the big kahuna. 45 electoral votes. you take that, you have a big leg up on the presidency. harold e. stasen, former governor of minnesota, now a punch line in american political history because he ran and lost so many times and ran and lost so many times with absolutely no chance of success. robert a. taft. senator from ohio, leader of the congressional republicans, de facto. mr. republican, mr mr. conservative, but as they say, dull as paint. not charismatic. and the fourth is not even in the country. general of the army douglas macarthur, in tokyo, running the former -- i guess still present

empire of japan. and a popular guy. but can he pull it off from far away? he doesn't. he's entered in the wisconsin primary. he should win that. he doesn't. he stumbles. he's out fairly quickly. there aren't a lot of primaries that year. there's a new hampshire primary. there's always the new hampshire primary. there is the wisconsin primary, which macarthur should win and doesn't. he loses it to harold stasen, which elevates stasen. stasen is an outsider. he's a boy wonder. in 1938, he had been elected governor of minnesota. he was the youngest governor of any state ever, and then he quits. he's re-elected saying if you re-elect me, i'm going to quit in four months and go into the navy. he's so popular, he's still elected. imagine being elected with a

platform like that. he comes out, he's an internationalist. you got the debates still going on. internationalism versus isolationism. stasen is on the extreme end of the republican internationalist brigade at that point. he's feisty. he's a real outsider. he wins in wisconsin. he wins in nebraska. and he's poised to take the front-runner status away from thomas e. dewey as the campaign heads into oregon. notice, i have only named four states. these are the four important primaries. most of these are still being done in party conventions which means in the back room, either in places like albany or columbus or wherever, or when you get to the convention. now, oregon is where we see something happening which is being repeated again this year.

debates. we're debating, we're debating, we're debating. you see newt gingrich at every stop saying, i want a lincoln-douglas style debate on one topic, just me and this other guy in the room, and it doesn't matter who the guy is or who the gal is or what the topic is. he's calling for that sort of debate. what he should be calling on historically because he's a great historian is a stasen-dewey model debate because the stasen-dewey debate is the first broadcast debate in presidential history. it's held in a radio station in portland, oregon, and it's held on one topic. two guys in a room in the iron cage on the topic, should the communist party of the united states of america be outlawed? harold stasen, the great liberal, in the affirmative. in the affirmative. tom dewey, tom dewey in the

negative. now, we haven't talked much about thomas dewey. dewey was the governor of new york, pretty popular guy. he had been the nominee of the republican party in 1944. he had led on the first three ballots in 1940 before losing to wendell wilke. quite remarkable because this year, 1448, he's only 46 years old. that's about the age of obama was, only three years older than jack kennedy was. he's a young man. and he's been on the verge of power and national notoriety even before 1940. what is he in 1940? he's an ex-district attorney. not even governor. he was the district attorney of manhattan. he was mr. district attorney, crime buster. the guy who went after the mob, put them in jail. went after the wall street guys. put them in jail. he did it all.

he was spectacular. as a district attorney. but as governor, he begins to trim his sails. he's looking at the polls, and as a candidate, it's the same way. so people, even though he's the purported front-runner, and the front-runner in terms of delegates at this point, he's not particularly loved in the party or among the population. but in this debate, he is the former district attorney. he's a great prosecutor. he's great with a jury. stasen was a prosecutor, too. but evidently, the prosecutors in manhattan have to be tougher than the prosecutors in minnesota. and dewey cleans his clock. stasen is essentially left bleeding on the floor after that primary. dewey wins it, but he still could be stopped. he could still be stopped at the convention because -- because he doesn't have the votes, he

doesn't have the love. but he knows how to make deals. he makes a deal with the governor of pennsylvania to push him over the top, and he wins the nomination. at that point, he's faced with a choice. who do i make my vice presidential candidate? it's a guy he wanted to put on the ticket four years before and one of these guys you have heard of, or warren. governor of california. this is another one of these cases where we look at, there's this big liberal wing of the republican party then. dewey, stasen, warren. warren may be the most liberal of all of them. warren doesn't want to do it. didn't want to do it in 1944. doesn't want to do it in '48. he's finally thinking, if i keep turning these people down, they're going to stop asking me to dance. if i want anything ever again, this could be it. so i better take it. so with great reluctance, he --

it becomes the dewey/warren ticket, which people think is just great. it's great. it's a fairly young ticket. it's progressive. it's forward thinking. it's got geographic balance. it's got new york, it's got california. wow. what a great ticket. and the democrats have got harry truman. maybe not. earlier in the year, the republicans were looking at a guy named dwight david eisenhauer. a grassroots wanted ike. they liked ike. everybody likes ike. they don't know what he is, is he a republican, is he a democrat? he's a general. that's good enough. sort of like some big version, political version of white christmas. okay? everyone loves the general. and they love him. he turns the republicans down. the democrats, things aren't getting better for harry truman. the convention is going dm to

philadelphia. just about everyone has a convention in philadelphia that year, the republicans, democrats, progressives. let's go with ike. let's go with ike. and this amazing, incoherent coalition of democrats forms. united by one thing. staying in power. southern segregationists like richard russell and stram thurman. northern liberals like hubert humphrey. big city bosses of chicago, jersey city. members of franklin d. roosevelt's family. all of them come together, and they want ike. they want to stampede the convention for ike. ike finally draws back and says, no, at the last minute. otherwise, it could have been eisenhower as the nominee and even as the president beating dewey, and he says no. not his year yet. he does become president that year, of columbia university. four years more for the presidency. so truman, truman is so bad.

it's so bad at that convention. he gets on the phone and he's calling william o. douglas, the supreme court justice. will you be my vice president? why him? because william o. douglas is a guy who is respected by the old new dealers. he has to get back in good graces with that wing of the party. he's got to cement that tie to the new deal. and william o. douglas supposedly says i will not be a number two man to a number two man. and turns him down. so he takes albin barkley, the democratic leader of the senate, and you have a ticket which is barkley is a pretty good speaker. he's kind of well liked. he's older than harry truman, and harry truman is not a young man. they both come from border states. it doesn't look like much of a ticket. doesn't look like much of a

ticket. but harry truman goes to the convention. he waits for hours to give his speech. he doesn't give it until like 1:00 in the morning, and the n conveng has just been all roiled up with everything. hubert humphrey had gone to the floor and forced a floor fight on the civil rights plank. the southern democrats were mad enough going into this convention. then hubert humphrey says, our plank on civil rights is not as strong as the republicans'. it's the same mush that we were peddling in 1944. no, we need to move out of the shadow of states' rights into the bright sunlight of civil rights, and he forces a floor fight onto the convention. first one since 1932, since prohibition, and he wins. he wins, and the southern democrats, some of them, anyway, walk out. walk out.

the convention is just dragging on into chaos. and then when they announce harry truman is coming into the hall at 1:00 a.m., past any media notice that you could get, they unleash -- they open up this big floral display of the liberty bell, because they're in philadelphia. and they fly out the doves of peace, which are all pigeons, actually, and they have been cooped up for hours now. they see all the lights and the noise and the bands and they just go crazy. and they are attacking things and flying into electric fans and landing on sam rayburn's head, and they're doing things that pigeons do. and harry truman has worn a white suit. well, that's probably the low point. harry truman starts off kind of slow, and he kind of has to point to albin barkley to get

some applause lines, and then he gets into what he's going to do. and i'm going to challenge the republican party and the do-nothing congress to come back in a special session and pass a program for the american people. and the crowd goes wild. and people say, wow. this could be a horse race. maybe there's something going on here. but when harry truman goes to detroit, to start his campaign on labor day, as democrats traditionally do, he doesn't have enough money to get the train out of the station. they have to make frantic calls to do that. it's still very dicy for him. the progressives under henry wallace come into philadelphia next. they have their convention. very interesting, you see the people who show up, and we hear these names later on. pete seager is providing the

music. paul robeson is providing the music. you've got a couple delegates there who become united states senators. one of which is george mcgovern. and they kind of go off onto their own, but their campaign is downward, downward, downward with the progressives. the dixiecrats meet again. they nominate strom thurmond, all the way, things are going on in the world and in the country. as the conventions are meeting, uncle joe stalin decides he's going to blockade berlin. what do you do? do you start a world war? do you send the convoys in or do an air lift. . do you figure out how to do an air lift to supply the people of west berlin before they riot and demand communism? and america figures out how to do that. and that's one of the things going on. you've got the return of the

peacetime draft. now, world war ii, it was a segregated army. the blacks are saying, okay. we put up with that. we put up with that during the war. we're not putting up with that again, and a. philip randolph says to harry truman, you do this again, i'm going to have a march on washington. before martin luther king, march on washington. and you know something. we have taken polls, 30% of our black youth will not register for the draft if you have a segregated army and navy. this is when truman with his back to the wall in the middle of the election, knowing that the dixiecrats have already gone about as far as they can, and not sure where the black vote in the north will go, this is when he makes his decision to

desegregate the armed services. this happened right in the middle of this. in the spring, actually in february, in february, there's a special election in new york. there's always a special election in new york for congress. i mean, just every week, we have a special election. and this one was in the bronx. pretty safe democratic seat. and what happens is republicans don't win, but a henry wallace supporter wins. and sends shockwaves through the democratic party. it's like, whoa, this movement may have legs. and this is in a fairly heavily jewish area. okay. wallace had been taunting truman as being insufficiently pro-israel. all the candidates are pretty much pro-israel. dewey, taft, all of these guys. truman. but truman has been having problems with the jewish community. they don't think he is sufficiently pro-israel. and what he does is 13 minutes

after the state of israel's independence or statehood is proclaimed, he is the first chief of state, we are the first country to recognize israel. and this helps solve some of his problems on the left with the wallace vote. but it's very chilling to see, chilling to read, i think in the "new york times" that day or the next day that out of egypt, out of cairo, muslim leaders are talking about a jihad against the united states of america. many things are part of that year which continue for a long time afterwards and into today. as the election goes on, we also see, now harry truman has this turnip day special legislature, and the law of unintended consequences, he brings congress back in. congress doesn't want to come back in the middle of an

election. but they come in and they hold some hearings on communists. communists in government. they take some testimony, and what this leads to is a guy named whittaker chambers going before the house senate american activities committee and saying that alger hiss is a member of the communist party, former undersecretary of state, and this is the beginning of the mccarthy era. it's also the beginning of richard nixon's political career. because he's one of the few people who when this starts to happen says, i smell a rat. i smell a rat. i do not believe hiss. they go after hiss. and finally get him. but this is, again, one of the things which differentiates 1948 as starting so many different things. the campaign starts. in the spring, harry truman had

made an interesting discovery. well, he kind of knew, part of it was something he knew. he knew he was really bad giving a speech off a script. i mean, really bad. he wasn't just franklin roosevelt. he was bad. when he was in the senate, he probably only gave three speeches or something his whole career. could not -- very bad eyesight, and he had trouble reading from a piece of paper and just giving a speech like this. but he talked to a bunch of newspaper editors in the white house, and first he gives his speech. people go, is the bar still open? you know, and then he speaks off the cuff, and even people who don't like him go, hey, that was pretty good. i keend of like that guy. he's got something. and everybody notices this. this is one of these great moments where the light bulb goes on and then he does it again. he does it again actually when he speaks right after recognizing israel. he goes to a jewish group in washington, and he does the same thing, and he wows them.

he says, boy, i gotta keep doing this. i gotta keep doing this because i stink doing it otherwise. and he does. and he goes across the country in the spring on his first whistlestop campaign. at first, there's a lot of gaffes, a lot of mistakes, a lot of errors. he kind of gets his stride by the time he goes to california, and then he does it again after labor day. now, dewey does the same thing. he has one of these whistle stop tours as well. but dewey is not as lively, not as spontaneous. tom dewey had originally not wanted to be president or governor or an attorney. he wanted to be a singer. he wanted to be a performer. harry truman we remember as the piano player. tom dewey was trained to be a concert vocalist. his wife had appeared on

broadway. okay, show biz people. so he knew how to present himself. he was really good, but he was too slick. and it didn't come across well, and its content was too much of mush. harry truman is rocking and socking and as he leaves washington on his fall whistle stop tour, somebody says, give them hell, harry. and he says, yeah. i will. and he does. and he used to say, well, i just tell them the truth and they think it's hell. but he -- in many cases, he's very rough. he's very rough. and his speech in chicago, for example, he pretty much accuses tom dewey and the people behind him of being fascists. okay. it's really over the top. and even his advisers are cringing from it. it's attack, attack, attack. dewey is not attacking. and people should notice things.

people often see what they want to see. they made up their mind. they don't need any more data or the data is irrelevant. so they know that harry truman is a loser. they know tom dewey is the next president of the united states. so when they see these crowds getting bigger and bigger and bigger and more boisterous for harry truman, it's like, eh, they're just curious. they just want to see the president. they don't care. and when they see the crowds not so big and not so enthusiastic for tom dewey, they should say, shouldn't people want to see the next president of the united states? and they don't. they don't make the connection. the roper polling organization stopped polling in mid-october. they think it's in the bag. why waste money on this? also, people see that, like, well, it looks like humfry is going to win in minnesota, and it looks like they might win in west virginia against weber.

and it's like, well, we might be in trouble -- we might -- we're going to lose seats. and they don't connect the fact that the wheels are falling off the republican campaign all over the place. because they have made up their mind that this is safe. a week before the election, i think it's gallup has it down to five points. that's nearly within the margin of error. and then when you add in the fact that third-party candidates tend to just collapse as election day comes in, henry wallace collapses, and those votes go to harry truman. so election day 1948, it's all festivities in new york at the hotel roosevelt. republicans have their headquarters there, they're ready to win. the democrats are -- don't even put up a tote board in their

headquarters in new york and washington. it's like, we don't want to know what these numbers are. just let us die in peace. but the returns start to come in. and they're not too bad for dewey at first. in fact, what happens is he wins the northeast. he wins the northeast. in part thanks to henry wallace. he carries new york. and he carries maryland over harry truman, thanks to henry wallace. and he does well threw the northeast. pennsylvania is very republican state. dewey had carried the midwest in 1944 against franklin roosevelt. he had not carried the northeast. he concentrates on the northeast. and doing that, he starts to ignore the midwest. early on in the truman re-election effort, there was a campaign document developed, and it said, well, you can safely ignore the south, which was not

exactly right. although here's a fun fact. franklin roosevelt had won the presidency four times without needing one electoral vote from the south. without needing one of those votes. harry truman's advisers say, you know, the farmers, the midwest, the far west. the far west is looking for irrigation projects, infrastructure. the farmer in the midwest is looking for government help. and harry truman was a missouri dirt farmer. he understood these people. okay. he goes, and he's walloping the republicans on these issues. and also inflation. inflation. he's got 7% inflation in the country, and he is walloping the congress about doing nothing about it.

now, he also has prosperity. he's got prosperity, and there's a cold war, but it ain't a hot war. nobody is dying. so he's got peace and prosperity. what do i mean by prosperity? no 8%, 9%, 10% unemployment. no great depression. 3.8% unemployment in 1948. james carville said it. it's the economy, stupid. and the people who had gone through a great depression and a world war, this is the song really is not, i'm just wild about harry. it's "happy days are here again." this is really the beginning of the '50s. this is the peace and prosperity of the '50s beginning already then. i mean, you get that bump of korea, but otherwise, very similar. so the returns start coming in, and it's starting to look like a horse race.

where is harry? harry goes to a luncheon in independence, missouri, his hometown. sneaks out the back door into a waiting limousine. and drives off to a pretty much vacant resort favored by politicians and gangsters outside of town. checks into a room, nobody knows he's there. he's hidden from the press. he's hidden from the nation, really. checks into a room. and is determined that he's not going to follow this on a minute-by-minute basis. there's a bottle of whiskey on the night stand and a ham and cheese sandwich. and that's his election night celebration. he turns out the lights probably about 9:00. every so often, his secret service people wake him up. to tell him he's won this state or he's doing well in that state. each time they wake hip up, they just annoy him.

they just annoy him more and more, but finally they give him the news which causes him to say, i think i've won. i think i've won. let's go down to kansas city. let's go down to headquarters. and harry truman has amazingly pulled it off. the ballroom in new york for tom dewey is an empty forlorn place. for henry wallace, for stram thurm thurman, all these things have fallen apart. but harry truman has proven one thing, as the great political philosopher lawrence peter berra, a former missourien stated, it ain't over until it's over. and harry truman proved that so right in 1948, and as for this talk, it's now officially over.

thank you. we've got time -- we've got time for some questions. and the deal is, you go to that microphone so that the people in our c-span audience can hear you. and then i will attempt to evade your questions. any takers? most unusual. oh, we have one. go right up there. yes. >> okay. your book contains a lot of quotes from harry truman that are blatantly anti-semitic and anti-black. >> absolutely. >> how do you square that -- i'm sorry. >> talk into the mike? >> that's actually on c-span, so just speak up. pretend you're me. >> start all over? >> go ahead. >> all right, your book has a lot of anti-semitic quotes from harry, anti-black quotes. how do you square that harry

truman with the harry truman that recognizes israel, that pushes for a progressive civil rights blanket? >> oh, yeah. people are complex. people are complex and they have really different parts of them, and they see different things differently at different times. harry truman's partner in the haberdashery was a guy named jacobson. so he has a very good relationship with jacobson. his mother-in-law, truman's mother-in-law, who he did not have a great relationship with, was so anti-semitic, she wouldn't allow jacobson into the house. okay? truman is -- has sympathy for the jewish people. he has sympathy for black people when they are being lynched, when they are being treated patently unfairly, but, i mean,

he does not, even after the presidency, he's writing in his memoirs in like 1955, this is not some private letter, that he doesn't want social equality with black equality with black people. and you get into the 1960s and he's -- the kennedy campaign kind of has to hide him because he's declaring the sit 234 demonstrators as communists. but people compartmentalize thi things and i think he does that and people are contradictory and truman is just a spectacular example of that and i think we can't -- we can not exclude a certain amount in of political calculation in this. truman and that document i was talking about, his blueprint for reelection says "you've got to

hold on to the black vote up north and particularly if dewey is the nominee you've got trouble. you will lose new york, you will lose ohio you will lose period. so there is that political calculation where he's given credit for integrating the arms services but it's usually not mentioned that a. phillip randolph has the gun to his head in the middle of this election, the southerners have gone off, they've done all the damage -- when i say they've done all the damage they can, the southern strategy, the dixiecrat strategy, is to dump the democrats off the ballots and once truman knows that he's still on the ballot in these states he knows he can pull it off in large parts of the south. like texas and georgia but up to

that point it's dicey for him. but people have different parts -- churchill, for example, churchill has some remarkably anti-semitic statements and franklin d. roosevelt who, of course, very differently to jewish people not as -- it's very interesting to see what he would have done with the state of israel because he was talking with the arabs just before he dies, with the saudis about well, we'll consult you on everything. i've read that he was part of the board of directors which instituted the numb raus classes at harvard which put in a quota system against jews. and who's really his best friend among cabinet members is morgan how t morgenth morgenthau. people are contradictory and harry truman is just an amazing example of it.

anyone else? >> is it true that truman -- well, truman didn't run in '52, stevenson ran against ike -- that he simply -- he and bess simply jumped in their car without benefit of any secret service protection or anything and drove back to independence, missouri? >> well, there's a new book on that -- not as new as my book but it came out about a year ago which, yes, indicates. that years before i was going to do a book on this election i visited independence, missouri, and visited the truman home and it's like, gee whiz, this kind of -- that's real linoleum on the floor, isn't it? i mean, this was not -- i mean, you go to -- you go to hyde park or you go to some of these other presidential homes and they are pretty modest. even like calvin coolidge's. you go to his house before he's

president and it's really modest. it's like -- you know, some place you'd see in amsterdam or something. and afterwards he does have to move into a big place. harry truman never moves into the big place and his circumstances are sufficiently modest that he is the guy that -- he's why we have presidential pensions. up to that point we really don't have that and they may be independently wealthy like a herbert hoover or they're able to have accomplished something more than truman did, very modest on the payroll his whole life, federal or local, county government. so truman is a modest guy. he might have been taking all these walks to save on gasoline, i don't know. next? >> the photograph, the

photograph that you have on your sign, what can you tell us about this picture of truman holding up this newspaper from the "chicago daily"? >> i like that cover. that's a great cover, i like that and the picture is about two days out from the election day. it's in st. louis, they've -- one of his campaigns, campaign aides has brought him the photograph and harry is just in love with it as you can see, even just seeing half his face. but these are times of labor difficulties. truman threatens to put the steel workers and coal miners in jail in '46 and we have the t t

taft-hartley ataf taft/hartley act by the republicans and there's labor troubles in the "chicago tribune" that night and there will be a delay in setting the headlines by three hours so they get on their phone to their correspondent arthur hennings sears, the tribune does in washington and it's slyke this safe? can we go with this? oddly enough, the correspondent was pensioned off right after this. [ laughter ] that was the end of his career. you don't see him with george will on sundays or anything after that. so that's a story and of course once he gets back to washington, he's treated by this immense crowd at union station and there's maybe the biggest or second biggest crowd in washington. they're lining the streets, they're going crazy and i think it ee's bess truman who says tor

daughter, "you know, there weren't as many people out here when we left washington." everyone loves a front-runner. >> i've got another one, again about a photograph. this picture has the president playing the piano with a young woman sitting on the top, what information do you have about that? >> the piano is still there. harry truman at that time was not president, he was vice president. he's at the press club playing piano and lauren bacall is there, then only about 19 years old and she sits on the piano, actually kind of reclines on it. so when i introduce her in my cast of characters at the beginning of the book i say "the legs on harry truman's piano."

[ laughter ] and this picture did two things. it really infuriated mrs. truman. [ laughter ] and it -- and it caused the people to wonder who this guy was and did he have the gravitas to be president or was he this hack from the pendergast machine again? so while it's become iconic, at the time it was shall we say problem mattal because there were different standards of presidential dignity at that point. even this whistle-stop tour is somewhat unusual for presidents. remember, presidents don't even go to the convention, the national convention, until 1932 with franklin roosevelt. so so i've been given the signal that time is just about up so we're going to wrap it up so we don't get caught in the middle

of an answer and i wish to thank you all for coming today. you've been a great audience. thank you very much. [ applause ] at cspan.org, you can watch our public affairs and political programming any time at your convenience, on your desktop, laptop, or mobile device. here's how. go to our home page, cspan.org, and click on the video library search bar. here you can type in the name of a speaker, the sponsor of the bill or even the event topic. review the list of search results and click on the program you'd like to watch or refine your search with our many search tools. if you're looking for our most current programs and you don't want to search the video library, our home page has many current programs ready for your immediate viewing, such as today's "washington journal" or the events we covered that day. cspan.org is a public service of your cable or satellite provider. so if you're a c-span watcher, check it out at cspan.org.

the c-span radio app makes it easier to follow the 2016 election wherever you are. it's free to download from the apple app store or google play. get audio coverage and up-to-the-minute information for c-span television plus broadcast times for our pub you already a p -- popular public affairs and history programs. c-span's radio app means you always have c-span on the go. and now the contenders, our 14-week series of people who ran for president and lost but nevertheless changed political history. we feature thomas dewey, former prosecutor who ran for president in the 1944 and 1948. this program was recorded at the roosevelt hotel in new york city. it's about two hours. this is american history tv only on