atmospheric administration held this press conference in arlington, virginia, to announce 2019 hurricane season outlook. noaa model exist a near normal hurricane season running from june 1st to november 30th. commerce secretary wilbur ross delivered remarks before turning the press conference over to the noaa scientists. this is 35 minutes. >> doctor jacob black i welcome you to the podium. >> dr. jacobs, i welcome you to the podium. >> at this time it's a distinct

honor and pleasure to introduce the secretary of commerce, mr. wilbur ross. >> i can see how efficient noaa is with their sbrukss and rest of their activities. thank you, neil for those words. and especially thank you for your leadership of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration. welcome, everyone. and thank you for joining us today for noaa's annual outlook on the 2019 hurricane season. the united states is fortunate to have such dedicated experts at noaa's forecasting offices and at the national hurricane center, including the pilots and staff who fly the g-4 hurricane hunter aircraft that you see here. noaa's hurricane hunter aircraft

were alost for 580 hours last year. while they were on the ground i've had the privilege of meeting many of these men and women. they are consummate professionals. they generate heaps of data used to determine a storm's intensity and direction. it's not just the center of a baro metric low that's measured and analyzed. but the air for thousands of miles on all sides of it, including the sheer above and the seas below. our noaa professionals work tirelessly to issue alerts to the public and emergency officials about the potential for hazardous weather. in fact, they work even harder during the off season, preparing new products they will use the

following season. they learn from every storm and apply that knowledge to future forecasts. i'm proud to note that their predictions are far more accurate than they had been in the past noaa has invested heavily in technology and in personnel. it has more powerful supercomputers, better software and algorithms, and more precise observational systems such as the microwave sounder. it has state of the art gos and polar oshting satellites, and the trained people needed to operate these systems and interpret the hundreds of tera bytes of data it generates every day. noaa has improved the

forecasting of hurricane tracks by 30% over the past decade. it has improved the lead time of its forecasts by three days, meaning its five-day in advance forecast now has the same accuracy as its former two-day forecast. and it's 7-day track now is what its four-day track used to be. that's really important because advance warning saves lives and gives people a better chance to protect property. the system is even getting better. starting in june it will transition to a forecasting model with a new dynamic core, with the marvellous name of the finite volume on a cube sphere. or they call it fv 3.

it will be the first upgrade to the dynamic core of its global model since 1982. it will vastly improve the current version, which if you can imagine was originally written on the archaic punch code. for these successes we oeveryone at noaa a debt of gratitude. [ applause ] as a florida resident, i'm acutely aware of the tremendous impact that hurricanes request have on lives, properties and businesses. we just had an extremely busy hurricane season. as you may remember, at one point last year, four named storms were active simultaneously. like ham let, slings of arrow of outrage fortune, the storms that

impacted the u.s. in 2018 caused $50 billion in damages. and we retired two notorious names, michael and florence. the bottom line with the 2019 outlook is really about being prepared as much as it is about the number of storms. with many strong tropical storms, especiallily those that persist and stall, the greatest destruction occurs beyond the coast. the impact of long duration deluge is severe and life threatening. we urge everyone who can be impacted by deep tropical impressions to stay informed and be ready to heed the warnings of noaa and your emergency management community. commerce department stands ready

to serve the nation before, during, and after any storm. so, again, thank you for being here. and congratulations to noaa for all of your worthy activities. [ applause ] . >> thank you, mr. secretary, for joining us today and for your continued support of noaa. the primary goal of today's outlook is to encourage the public to take steps to prepare before the hurricane season which begins on june 1st. preparing means reviewing and creating your emergency evacuation plans and gathering your supplies now in case your area is hit by a hurricane. we will hear more about preparedness from fema shortly. before i announce the 2019 hurricane season outlook i would like to discuss how noaa is prepared to keep the public informed and safe this season.

at noaa we strive to deliver timely and accurate forecasts supported by sophisticated weather models fed incredible amounts of data from sources such as noaa satellites as well as drop sons from the gulf stream 4 you see behind me. the king air turbo prop which you see here inspect vital to noaa hurricane response resistance, used to conduct low altitude survey of coastline damage helpful to emergency managers and home owners who have evacuated. noaa vessels and rapid response teams deploy after storms bass to survey waterways to ensure they are free of debris and safe for shipping. noaa operates a fleet of earth observing satellites, including stationary gos east and west and advance polar oshting satellites providing microwave sounder data that drive the forecast model

used to predict hurricane track and intensity. the this season the national weather service to ungrade the daupg core to the gfs known ohs the american model rk ma being the first rufrlgsary upgrade to the core in decades and represent the first step in reengineering noaa's groebl forecast system to enable the best possible science based predictions to the nation. and of course noaa's hurricane hunters. these planes correct data from above, around and inside tropical systems. in season the plane will collect higher resolution did it from an upgraded onboard radar system. these enhanced observations will be transmitted to forecasters across noaa into our computer models providing essential input to improve track and sbens intensity forecast. collectively noaa suite of sophisticated technologies and services enable decision makers and the public to take action before, during and after

hurricanes, increasing community resilience and helping build a more weather ready nation. now onto the 2019 atlantic hurricane season outlook. this includes all activity in the atlantic ocean, gulf of mexico and caribbean from june 1st to november 30th. atmospheric and ocean conditions at that factored into the outlook include competing signals. on one hand, the ongoing el even nene owe so expected to persist and suppress activity in the atlantic hurricane season. on the other hand a combination of warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical atlantic and caribbean combined with enhanced west african monsoon favor increased activity overall the atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for a near normal season with a 70 petros chances of 9 to 15 name storms with top winds at least 39 miles an hour. of those four to eight will

become hurricanes. with top winds of at least 74 miles an hour. and two to four major hurricanes reaching category three, four or five. in outlook is made possible by the work of dr. jerry bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at noaa's climate prediction system. his team as well as him are here today to answer any questions you may have about the outlook during the q and a session. please keep in meend that this youtd look does not suggest how many of the storm strikes land. that's beyond the forecast ability of the seasonal outlook. but when ha storm does form, we can counted on noaa's national weather service include including the national hurricane center to provide details on the storm track and potential impacts. throughout the season, be sure to stay up to date at weather.gov and hurricanes.gov. speaking of the weather service i would like to acknowledge the

director of noaa national weather service here today. in addition to his normal duties as the weather service director, he is also campaigning to be the next president of the world meteorological organization. i wish him best of luck and my strongest endorsement as we are now a month away from the election in again eva. back to the hurricane outlook. so summarize, a near normal atlantic season is expected with noaa taking great strides to deliver the best forecast to keep you informed ahead of approaching storms. while we cannot prevent a storm we can take action to be prepared for such severe weather and impacts on our communities. i would now like to invite fema's dr. daniel kanusky to discuss what people can do in upcoming season. [ applause ] . >> thank you, dr. jacobs. thank you, secretary, as well.

my message today, it only takes one. it only takes one land falling hurricane to cause great destruction to a community. thus we need to prepare now. now, of course that includes our state and local and federal partners. but it also means you. it means you as individuals, as families, as communities you need to come together and take action now to protect yourselves, your property, and your financial future. now, of course there is a few easy steps to take here. build a kit. make sure the kit has food, and water, medications, for at least 72 hours to make sure that you can take care of yourselves and your families after a disaster. also realized you need to have a plan to communicate with your friends and family. communications networks could be done following a disaster. you need to know your evacuation

roots. you need to practice evacuating before the emergency. you also need to follow the advice of local officials. they know best about what you should be doing as a hurricane approaches. to receive the messages you need to make sure you have a battery powered radio and you should download the fema app. finally you need to be financially prepared. you need to make sure you have cash on hand. atms credit card swipe machines those rely on electricity communications networks, both of which could be down following a hurricane. you also need to have insurance. your home owner's insurance make sure it's up to date. speak to your local insurance agent. and make sure you have flood insurance. flood insurance is not included in your home owner haste policy you need to request it separately. why must you have flood

insurance? let's look at hurricane harvey. 2017 hurricane harvey struck texas caused mass devastation. we're all aware of that. but do you know wlat financial impact was to individuals who were uninsured? the uninsured disaster survivor received about $3,000 from fema. i'm proud that we put the $3,000 in the hands of disaster survivors immediately following that hurricane. but $3 now isn't going to make you whole. insurance makes you whole.

thank you very much. thank you to our speakers and we will now have the q and a portion of the program. i would like to welcome dr. jerry bell to the stage to help address questions. and operator, please provide instructions to those dialing in on how they may get in the queue. we'll start with questions in the hangar for any media. if you have questions please raise your hand and state your name and affiliation in before your question. yes in the front. >> i'm sorry we have a microphone. >> hi, tom franke from e and e news. the secretary fwauktd how the short term forecasts are getting more accurate. how accurate is in forecast? and given that you are talking about a pretty wide range of the potential number of storms, what's its value to the public? >> we issue our ranges of

activity, named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes with a 70% likelihood thp. therapy not the entire ranges of activity we have seen during past years with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to this year. but given that we issue the ranges with pennsylvania 70% likelihood, that means we expect them to verify about 7 oh% of the time orp about 7 in 10 seasons. and that's what we see. that the numbers really locked in in 2008, 2009 period and have been sustained since we started getting very sophisticated climate model like the global forecast system, climate forecast system from noaa. we have now significant modelling efforts from the geophysical fluid dynamics lab at noaa. the bottom line is we verify each of those ranges. we expect to be accurate in 7 out of 10 seasons. and they are. >> hi, there, natalie brand from

cbs news path. what did you learn from last season? how does that inform your preparation for in season? >> i think in terms of the preparation, i would actually go to hurricane -- not from a meteorology perspective but from a preparedness perspective, we really saw two completely different types or sets of impacts from hurricanes michael and florence last year. florence was approaching the carolinas. it weakened and then stalled. it produced record rainfall and massive flooding throughout the carolinas. in that case flooding was the big issue. and the biggest impacts were not near the coast. they were much much farther inland. michael was a completely different scenario where it was a strengthening -- very strong storm became a category 5 at landfall and basically decimated

everything in its path. in that case there was relatively short time to evacuate or finalize your preparedness plans. so both of these different hurricanes really highlight the myriad types of impacts you can see with the hurricanes. and they point to, hey, hurricanes impact different people in different ways. i need to make sure my prepared plans are in place for the ways myself, my family, my area could be impacted. >> hi. katrina perara cbs news. >> noaa recent addressedment lawmakers about the fcc spectrum auction. what are the concerns about the potential effect on forecasting capabilities. >> the concerns would be out of bounds emissions and interference with the pass of microwave sounders. and i would just like to take in opportunity to state that noaa is a huge supporter of 5g.

we would be compensate on 5g for the dissemination of watches and warnings to better inform the public but we also want to protect the forecasting capabilities. right now we are the subject matter experts, noaa and nasa are working with the subject no nassar working with subject matter experts at the fcc to try to come to an optimal solution where we can have both 5g deployment as well as accurate forecasts >> they kind of held it back as far as winter forecasting and now utilizing this for hurricane modeling are there any apprehensions since we worked out the kinks and above and you currently run the current the at the same time?

>> we are continuing to run the gfs we've been running the fe three for a couple years, there were two different bugs, one in radiation and while one in snow depth accumulation and those of been addressed. we've gone through retesting and verification in the process right now. we have a date set mid-june to operationalize it, assuming we don't discover any more issues. but, i am confident it will be more skillful than the current gfs. the back testing and verification process on previous storm seasons have the not so i'm very optimistic that we will have an updated forecast this year . >> the question for you about fema, the 2018 after action

report released during the 2017 hurricane talked about among other things, the problem that fema had with having its staff dispersed to so many disasters, 30% of the staff was attending to other disasters and there was an inclusion about fema wanting to refocus its personnel more on catastrophic disasters and building up local ability to handle that, what is fema doing to that end for this hurricane season and has it starts how many people are out in the field and other disasters? >> we do have over 50 open disasters, there are disasters all over the country and fema personnel are staffing those. as you correctly pointed out, we took at least two actions from the 2017 hurricane season that making sure we could rapidly redeploy personnel to other disaster areas, disaster areas that may emerge with no notice, not just hurricanes, if

a disaster happened today we are confident we could redeploy personnel and resources as required. as a result of the very busy 2017 and 2018 hurricane season, those personnel are now pre- deployed to the areas that would likely be impacted. in other words, we have pretty positioned, quite unintentionally our personnel to the atlantic and gulf coasts. we have personnel there nearby and wary hurricane might strike. >> operator, please remind the callers how to get into the queue to ask questions, any final questions in the room before we go to the phone? operator, can you please send the first question and provide

the name and affiliation? >> your line is open . >> thank you, this is for jerry , first off, almost all the other private and see if you and all those are calling for more of a below normal season, especially because of el niño, can you explain a little more detail why you are closer to normal then below normal or is it more warm seawater's which is always the case in is the climate change oriented or is it more the west african one soon -- monsoon and can you explain how that would affect us ? >> this year there are competing climate factors and they act to increase windshear and suppress activity, competing with el

niño are ongoing patterns we've seen since 1995 and is a nation with the ongoing atlantic high activity area where temperatures will be warmer than average. with that we are expect in a stronger west african monsoon, warmer temperatures, stronger monsoon and more activity. again, competing factors that there is some uncertainty based on my predictions as to how strong each of the factors will be. most models at this point are predict being a week el niño with limited impacts and most models are predict warmer atlantic temperatures but not too warm. so it looks at this time and that a near-normal season is most likely but, mind you, that is dale a lot of activity 9 to 15 storms is a lot, 2 to 4 major hurricanes is a lot so the key messenger we expect and near-normal season that's a lot

of activity to prepare for the hurricane season . >> i mentioned the main seasons , the el niño and conditions over the tropical atlantic, just to hit this for major climate patterns, the el niño factor is major influencing activity from one year to where the next. there are longer-term patterns for the atlantic, the main one is called the atlantic to fatal oscillation or aml for people who know the word. this is a pattern that last anywhere from 25 to 40 years historically and that pattern since 1995 has been associated with warmer temperatures and stronger west african monsoon just been giving us increased activity since 1995.

there's no indication were out of high activity era or one phase of the amo these are the two main climate factors for this year's hurricane outlook . >> thank you. >> next question . >>is now open, philadelphia inquirer. >> jared with philadelphia, yes, you just address the question i had basically expect you see any indication at all that they are in transition or is it impossible to know, when you're out of it you're out of it? >> were not seeing any indication were out of the high activity period, as far as predict when it will end, there's no way to know, the cycle goes way back and we

could see way back into the late 1800s when we started getting decent ocean data to monitor patterns. but no, there is no way to know . >> the next question is from brian sullivan, bloomberg news, your line is open. >> jerry, the last point before the official start of the season, -- >> i'm sorry, brian we cannot hear you clearly. >> that didn't help either. ryan -- brian? operator can we take the next question? >> the next question is from josh solomon, your line is now open .

circulation in the northern down, what role does that play in the amo cycle . >> let me back up, there is an atlantic thermo healing circulation in the atlantic basin to a clockwise rotation and the changes in that circulation are associated with the multi-decayed all changes in the oscillation. they are part and parcel of the same thing, the deep ocean part of circulation. various studies indicate they may be changing, but what we've seen through the last several seasons is the atlantic ocean temperatures remaining warmer than average, the west african monsoons stronger than average and last year was a strong west african monsoon that help to really strengthen last year's season.

so no, we are not out of the high act the error just yet . >> operator, next question? >> your line is open . >> hi jerry, this is stephanie, i don't know if you have more to say but did your modeling show you any changes in the level of rainfall? >> any changes in the level of rainfall? i just wanted to check their . >> i am mainly looking at models as far as predict the strength of the hurricane season so, i'm not sure how to answer that question . >> okay, thank you. >> the next question is from mary landers, your line is open.

>> thank you. i'm wondering if the main store and we already had is included in the 5 to 15 range? >> yes it is, the numbers we give our for the entire hurricane season. >> i think the color who got cut off was asking if you were seeing any pattern in preseason activity? >> no, the preseason early season, june or july activity that is typically minimal, on average you may see one or two main storms during june or july and you might see a hurricane, very rarely would you see a major hurricane during june and july. by far the peak of the hurricane season is september and october that's when most of the major hurricanes form. back to the early part of the season , if you do get a storm, preseason storm or some that do form in june or july they

typically form from a trailing funnel boundary or upper-level depression in the jet stream and they tend to be short-lived and that's it, as we just saw. in contrast, during the peak months of hurricane season, those are the systems that come westward from africa those are the storms that very often can strengthen into major hurricanes and really control the overall hurricane season. the bottom line is that early- season activity is typically not a signal of what to expect for the rest of the hurricane season . >> thank you again for all the questions on the phone, are there other questions in the room? >> with that we will conclude this press conference. if you have follow-up inquiries contact lauren at 202-740-8314.

thank you speakers for joining today and thank you all for joining. thank you. [ applause ] >> on saturday senator bernie sanders will to campaign rally at the statehouse in vermont, live coverage begins at 2 pm eastern on c-span, those who watch online or listen live with a free c-span radio app >> what does it mean to be american middle and high school students answer the question for this year's student cam computation watch the winning videos saturday at 10 am eastern time on c-span. >> monday, memorial day, american history tv and c-

span's washington journal are marking the 75th anniversary of d-day starting at 8 am eastern time with the life you are calling program with alex kershaw, author of the first wave, the d-day warriors who led the way to tree in world war ii and mary louise roberts, offer of d-day through franchise , normandy, 1944. during the program we will take your phone calls, tweets and facebook comments. monday, memorial day, starting at 8 am eastern . >> here are some of the featured programs this weekend on book tv, sunday at 6:50 pm eastern in burdens of freedom, new york university professor lawrence mead argues that the main threat to american leadership is the decline of individualism within american society . >> europe has a constantly changing quality not found in other cultures because for them people don't initiate things

they wait for direction from above and that temperament appears to be the major reason by europe became unusually rich and powerful . >> van etten 9 p.m. eastern time on afterwards, in her book no visible bruises, journalist rachel louise snyder reports on domestic violence with other social issues and is interviewed by michigan democratic representative debbie dangle . >> domestic violence affairs and every nearly every social issue were facing from homelessness to mass shootings, we have an even talked about mass shootings that are domestic violence homicide, mental health issues, issues of addiction, all of these have intersections with domestic violence . >> watch this weekend on book tv on cspan-2. >> the senate banking committee held in over a site hearing with financial regulators