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and be part of the national conversation through c-span's daily washington journal program, or through our social media feed. c-span, created by america's cable television companies as a public service and brought to you today by your television hot provider. >> jacob of inside elections joins us via zoom for a deep sive on the senate battlefield.f inside elections on friday demor released its updated race rankings of every senate race and the headline take away, democrats poised to take contro. of the senate. jacob, explain why. >> good morning, john. so like you said last week, we shifted eight of our senate races, all were democrats. and like you said, what this indicates is that democrats are now in very good position to

retake control of the senate for the first time since they lost it in 2014. now, there are a lot of different reasons. a race by race basis, why the senate is looking so much bettew for democrats this cycle. but the main reason why we're in this position now starts at the very top of the ballot. that's the really abysmal ht aga position president donald trump has found himself in his re-election fight against formeo vice president joe biden. and the president's struggle at the top of the ballot, where he's down by upwards of eight, nine, ten, even 11 or 12 points, has made it really difficult for not just the most vulnerable republicans in the senate, but also republicans in seats that are in perhaps more balanced cycle they would not have a problem. >> explain the math here. how many seats are up this y thy cycle, how many are democrats defending, how many do they need to take over the senate?up for

>> there are 35 senate seats upe for election. and that includes a couple the special elections as well in arizona and in georgia. currently, the senate is divided 53 republicans and 47 democrats. what that means is that democrats either need four to take back the majority, or if joe biden wins the presidency, r because the vice president is re able to cast a tiebreaking vote in the senate, the democrats would only need three seats. a net gain of three seats to get to a 50/50 tie that would then r be broken by biden's vice president. so if donald trump win wins, democrats need to net four seats. if joe biden wins, which is eedo looking moreur likely, then democrats only need to pick up three seats out of those 35. knf >> what's a wave election, and when do we know iff we're in on? >> well, it's hard to tell untia the votes come in on election night.

a wave election is really where all races that could go one wayy end up going one way. one of the things we see there,r if you look at of our ratings, have a fir number of toss-up ratings. in a vacuum, you might say a toss-up, and we do say this, a toss-up is a 50/50, a coin friendship on which side wins.es when elections start to look like waves, what you see is all of those toss-up races go in one direction. so in this case, if this became a democratic wave, you would see all four of our toss-up races o toward democrats as well as some of the races that republicans mightlicans m appear to be moreo in because once these things get going, the fund-raising and polling and media narrative ball catch hold about how e these election cycles are moving, it i has a little bit of a snowball effect. but it's rare that you can really sayay before an election actually occurs a wave is

happen happening. you can look at the signals and see what they'rebl sayingue to but even in 2018, which was known as the blue wave, when democrats took back the majority in the house, they lost two seats in the senate. of ho so does that mean it's a wave, not a wave? it's a question of how you wante to label it.e >> insideelections.com is where you can go to check out the race ratings and some of the analysis from the team there. just for our viewers who are watching at home, here's a list of the ratings, the toss-ups , right now, all republican seats.ernst of republican-held seats right now. susan collins of maine, steve daines ofof montana, joni ernst of iowa, thom tillis of north carolina. you can get into the tilting ana democratic territory. two republican seats listed in d thato category. cory gardner of colorado, martha mcsally of arizona. and so on down the line with thn rest of the ratings.

we'll talk about those kin individual races and take your questions as well in this umbers segment with jacob of inside elections. the phone numbers to call in d this morning to ask about the senate races that you want to talk about. democrats, 202-748-8000. >> republicans, 202-748-8001. independents, 202-748-8002.d as folks areof t calling in, we shouldn't get ahead of the primaries. there's still lots to happen ins the primaries including today. take us through what we should i be watching for with primaries in three states today, all with senate implications. t >> so, the biggest race that i'm looking at today is the senate inpublican primary runoff in the state of alabama. so in a normal situation, is a r alabama would not be epcompetite at the senate level. this is a very, very republican state. that said, in 2017, now senator

doug jones, a democrat, was able to narrowly defeat former state supreme court justice roy moore in that special election to replace one who had resigned that seat to become the very r president's attorney general. giving the democrats a blue seat in a very red territory.t a wave now, you asked what does the election look like? right now,w, doug jones is the most vulnerable democrat on the map. we currently have his race rated as lean republican. as the result of this primary, i he will either face former attorney general and alabama senator jeff sessions or former auburn university football coach talk tommy tuberville. jones is not favored to win. if we find ourselves in a cataclysmic proportion, you might see this race actually become more competitive, even though it is in alabama, it's in

a state the president will win by double digits.at one of the interesting things wo have seen over the last couple weeks is as least one outside republican group has reserved se millions in dollars for advertising in fall in alabama which shows even republicans are not taking this race for convic granted. you want to talk aboutwill wave. when republicans are not win a absolutely convinced that they s will be able to win a state election in alabama, you're looking at potentially a pretty big night forgu democrats. >> take us up to maine. >> so in maine, we have one of the premier on the map. republican susan collins is a he stalwart in the united states senate. really crafting an image built as a middle of the road, moderate republican member of the united states senate. that's been her calling card for as long as she has been in thatt

chamber. while she has, she faced some n competitive challenges in the past, she has always won them handily, by double digits.s but this time is different. what we have seen is the democrats coalesce around maine state house speaker sarah gideon as their candidate. so while she does have to get through the primary, and there are two other challengers in e that contest, she is widely considered to be the heavy front-runner there.nation and is already operating with the national party. and gideon is really the most formidable challenger that susan collins has faced before.nd her so it's a combination of who sarah gideon is and her position in the state, but also this question of whether susan collins has lost that kind of moderate position she was able to use to such great advantage in her previous elections.ings

when we look back over the last couple years, things like confirming supreme court justice brett kavanaugh, like voting for the republican tax cut, could come up in conversation with voters and operatives in maine as the main reasons why certainly democrats and even a lot of independents in the state no longer view susan collins as a down the line operator in the senate. they view her as being much more aligned with the republican party. in a cycle like 2020 which is rt shaping up to be a bash against thee republicans and president trump, that's not a good position for collins to be in. we have already seen her lag behind in fund-raising, which is rare for a senate incumbent, ee especially one asply deeply entrenched as she is. she's been trailing in most of the polling that's come out of

the state in the last couple dh months. >> the other state withave up s primaries today, texas.. do democrats have a chance of picking up a seat in texas? >> yes. democrats do have a chance of picking up this seat in texas held by a texas senator, john cornyn. and the reason b why that is ist because of what's happening at e the top of the ticket. so we have seen over the last couple months independent polling as well as private polling that indicates that texas, the republican bastion of texas, is the presidential d level, but joe biden and donaldo trump are runningpe dead even. because of this, it's created an opening for the dems to win the senate seat as well. the better performing your presidential candidate does, the easier it is for you to win thae senate seat as well. so if you're a democrat, if joe biden is winning the state, allt you have to do is get all of jo.

biden's voters to vote for you f as well.tw so o today, weto have a runoff between the two top finishing democrats from last month's first round of the primary.j ha mary hegar, mj hegar, was a bec congressional candidate in 2018 who went viral because of her pretty stunning campaign ad. she lost that race, but she decided to run for the senate. also running against her is royce west, who has been underfunded and somewhat undercovered in this primary, but some people think that for a variety of reasons, he has a little bit of late momentum leading to the runoff today. either one of these candidates would be viewed as underdogs against senator cornyn, who retains a cash on hand advantage of over $10 million, and even though texas is competitive at

the presidential level, it's puc stillan a kind of republican ste at its core, at least for the moment. while there is anrtainly openis certainly not a slam dunk for democrats. but it is a sign of just how wide the senate map is for the democratic party, is that they . can really be competing legitimately in the state. >> jacob, i'm going to let our u control room work with you for a little bit, just to make sure we have your sound a little bit bt better, but as they're doing wel that, i'm going to satake some calls fromfix yo viewers to tal them and get their thoughts about the senate race. chattin we'll get back to you when we fix your sound and get that toc better because we want to keepa chatting for you. for our viewers, the numbers to call in. 202-748-8,000 for democrats. 202-748-8001 for republicans. 202-748-8002 for independents.ca want to hearn or about your thos on the senate race this cycle, whether you think democrats can

or will take control of the t y senate, and about the races in o your state and whatut you're watching.sa we'll go to samuel first out of wisconsin. an independent. samuel, good morning.chance o >> caller: hi.sena i think that if democrats want , any chance of taking back the pt senate, which they do have a large one, unlike past elections where they're all trying to have a high turnout democrats and trying to outnumber the republicans, i think they reallw need to focus on trying to switch republican voters to ourl side. as weinistrat can see, donald t failed administration is going to go up and down the ballot to really have a referendum on voters. is this really the party we want in control?ring because we can see t what trump doing. i'm not comparing trump to evera other republican, but when a republican supports donald trump, they're kind of just saying, well, that's what we support. so i thinklectio democrats reald to make a change this election,

and instead of trying to get nse enthusiasm within their own ed party to try to outnumber the republicans, we need to focus on republicans trying to switch voters. >> samuel, what's the best pitch, what's the best message to do that, do you think? >> caller: to really just focus onth donald trump's administration. you focus on the lies they have told, on the promises they made that didn't work. we focus on the presidential administration and say this is what the rest of the country isf going to look like if we put ane republicans back in control of the senate, and we give them a chance to get them back in youf controloc of the house. trump' this is what the country is , it going to turn into, so when you focus on trump's failed hows thi administration, it works down the ballot that it just shows this is what the republican m ua party is tryingnd to do. this is what's going to happen if we elect them up and down the ballot one more time.

>> samuel in wisconsin. this is mike out of laend this morning, as we're back with jacob of inside elections. mike is a republican, good morning. >> caller: good morning. >> what's your question or comment? >> caller: my comment is that i. really think that our country needs to keep republicans in the senate majority, and also bring, it to the house. the previous caller, i don't n r agree with the previous caller. what i'm seeing happen in our country is marxism and a huge push by the media and democrat leaders are trying to push us into socialism.jaco that's not what america is about. >> mike in florida.we a jacob, the last two callers bringing up the house. i know we're focusing on the senate this morning, but is the house in play? you ran through the math for the

senate, for a democratic takeover. what's the math in the house for potential republican takeover? >> the house is really, at the end of the day, not in play in the current national environment. republicans would need 18, i believe, seats to flip the chamber, give or take a few vacancies. and in the current environment, it just does not appear that cot there are enough competitive republican candidates and enouge competitive districts held by t democrats to make that a reality. now, there are certainly plentye of folks on c the republican si who believe they will be able to get to that point later in the s cycle. however, where the presidentialn race currently standards, where the fund-raising situation currently stands for so many republican candidates, and where the underlying candidate quality

questions remain, makes it verye very difficult to see any way d back to a republican majority.iy in fact, if the election for the house were held today, we would just as likely see democrats actually expand their majority s and pick up another handful of seats as we would see them lose any seats. >> a question from jimbo, in bakersfield, california. saying if the president's poll numbers continueder mi on their downwort trajectory, could mitch mcconnell lose his bid for re-election in november? >> so, the thing about senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is he comes from kentucky, which is one of the most republican states in the entire country. so on a base level, it's very difficult for a democrat to win state-wide, regardless of who hr they're running against.who wo

the last person to do it was current governor andy beshear, t who woned election in 2019, bute only won that election with 49%h and he won it against the incumbent governor, who was perhaps the most unpopularunpopl governor in the entire country for some time and he still wasn't able to get a majority, even though he did eke out a win. so kentucky is a very difficult state for democrats to compete in. thatcrats ha said, the candidat democrats have in the state of kentucky retired fighter pilot amy mcgrath is one of the best fundraisers they've had in the history of the party.. she is shown an unparalleled ki ability tond raise enormous sum of money and whenever you're raising the kinds of figures that she is, she's already raised over $40 million and many in the party think she could raise another $40 million befori

the election is done, you'll always have to pay attention t'e it. s and the republicans certainly are payingg attention to it. reser that is why we've seen several outside groups place $14 million in advertise reservations for the fall in the state of kentucky to heto help soern mit mcconnell. if you need to spend $14 millioo to keep a race in your column, o then perhaps it isn't asf soli as we have begun the cycle thinking it was. >> one of thehe things that we like to do during the segments when we take a deep dive into the races is show viewers what voters in the individual states are seeing on the television, the campaign ads.es, th so want to focus on one of the those most high-prefile races, the arizona race, martha mcsally against-in the tilt democrat column in thehere inside electi against mark kelly, the

astronaut, the democratic candidate. here is two ads back-to-back and we'll come back and talk about them. >> i've spent my lifeli standinf up for the vulnerable and put my life on the line to protect american families. mark kelly's attacks on me are false and shameful. i will always protectre-exi thoh pre-existing and i'm taking on china and the bigg pharmaceuticl companies to make sure prescription drugs are safe affordable and made in america. i'm martha mcsally and i approve this message because everybody american deserves qualitye takn affordable health care. >> a singlegllions f prescripti cost thoughts but washington politicians look the other way after taking millions from drug companies. drug companiess protect their profits and those politicians, they protect their careers. but isn't congress's job to protect us? i'm not taking a dime from any p corporate pac. i'll push from medicare to negotiate lower drug prices..

i'll be a senator for arizona. i'm mark kelly, and i approve this message. >> jacob, the focus there on health care in those two ads. >> exactly, john. it is pretty fascinating to see, despite the events of the last a couple months, between the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic fallout and the nationwide reckoning on issues of race in america, m th despite allel of that, the throh line from the election of 2018 is still so present in so many of those races. and that is health care. that health care is really the reason why democrats were able e to seize back control of the united states house of representatives innso m 2018.iee and so many in the party still believe that health care is the way that they will be able to regain control of the united t in 2020.natehe this is the defining issue for

in many ways for this cycle as it was in last cycle. so what we saw there was martha mcsally, the incumbent senator,o he wasns appointed to that seatc not elected, defending her ld aa record onin pre-existing conditions. in both house and senate races, the repetitive republican attempts to repeal the affordable care act, obamacare,o never grappledndit with the issf continuing to protect people with pre-existing conditions.e f and that has been seen to be the most effective line of attack. a and the one of the ways to see how effective is, is that martha mcsally has to spend the time o and financial resources to go uo on tv and instead of promoting her own positive message first'' and foremost, she has to respono to mark kelly's attack on her record first. so she's operating from a

defensive posture.ic mentioned, we have eek. this race as a tilting democratic. we have move this race out of toss-up column last week to indicate that mark kelly, the former astronaut and the current head of former congresswoman gabrielle giffords is the sligha favorite in this arizona senate: race. >> back to florida. this is philip out of pembroke s pines an independent. good morning, you're on. >> caller: yes, i think the democrats will flip the senate and as far as -- is concerned he's been over 30 years, hasn't done anything.ng the and he's been fighting the democrats for 20 years. i think we will flip the senate this year. and as far as mcsally is o win concerned inth arizona, kelly i going to win that race. she's not doing the job.

>> what give you the confidence -- >> caller: obamacare has to be repealed. that'sca it. okay. >> you think the affordable care act should be repea repealed? >> caller: no, i'm sorry, it oa should be repaired but not repealed. it is working. so we should stay with obamacare. >> jacob, on the affordable carr act, obamacare as a campaign t issue. you talkedroun aboutd health c there in the arizona races, are we seeing that on the ground in other races as well? >> absolutely. absolutely. this is the number one issue when i talk to democratic strategists and candidates. it is the number one issue they plan on messaging, for so many it is the number one issueue abt why they began to be in politics on decide to run for office in the first place. and it is really fascinating to, think about because if you takes a little bit of a wider look, if

you go back to 2010, which was a wave election, health care was also the defining issue of that election. and specifically obamacare was the defining issue of that election. but in that time, it was a blicn favorable issue to republicans n andta 2010 was the start of republican resurgence with the retaking of the house of representatives on the back of the strength of the tea party that you could draw a direct line to the ascendency of donald trump in 2016 because of the issue of obamacare that we saw in president obama's first term. but the tables really have beenr turned over the last decade. obamacare as a law is more popular than it ever was and it is the fear of republicans repealing obamacare that is motivating voters to go to the poll. it is no longer anger over the law itself, it is anger over attempts to repeal the law.the and what we've seen, like philip said, there is dissent in the

democratic party about the best way forward. those on the more liberal or ldv progressive winge favor a bern sanders-style medicare for all a plan thatrk would have the government act as the solen surer and more moderate candidates like mark kelly as et you saw a in his ad, are not advocating for a single payer but for an expansion of medicaid and advancing compare and steve bollock in montana asking for at government run health care may program that people could opt into or go back and use their private insurance. >> maybe it is because florida is in the spotlight every election cycle, but a lot of callers from florida thisis morning. brian is in miami. a democrat. is the good morning. >> caller: good morning. i hav thank you for giving me the timt here to speak on c-span. this is the first time i've ever done so but i've beenti an ne

attenti attentive listener, the with the pandemic, i think the first tims this country has undergone a pandemic in the information age, i guess it is called now.. the age of the internet, the age of mass transit. we're in an age where, as dr. fauci said two years ago, a pandemic is possible but not only is it possible in the sense as it was 100 years ago when the spanish flu hit where it took two years for it to sweep through the world and kill half a million people -- i mean halfi a billion people which was ach large percentage of the world he population, right. well, what he was pointing out at the time is that the spread of the virus, especially airborne is very quick, very, very rapid. i think they've been able to pin

it down to an infection rate ofn one person could infect four. >> well, brian, bringing it bace to today and jacob, i do want o you to weigh upin, the impact oh the pandemic on peoplee ques sh up to vote in november and all of the questions about mail-in ballots and how that will impacu not only election day but how we view election day and when we'l know theth results of some of these very close senate races. >> well,, i think it is pretty clear that we'll see record numbers of mail-in and absentee balloting this fall. if the primaries that happened over the last couple of months are any indication, it is not just the normal population that votes mail-in that is going to be utilizing that option this time around. and what that means for election

night is that we need to be cautious when we're actually watching those returns come in. in this country, we don't have one election system, we have 51r different election systems in the 50 states and the district of columbia and each one of those states or f territories operates in their own way.vo and they all have different protocol for how they deal with absentee and early voting and with mail-in voting and when people are able to do that and when the votes are actually counted.ember, w so the important thing to remember moving forward toward november is that when you're actually watching the election night returns come in on screen, as a rule of thumb, you should understand that those returns are not final.pr and what we've seen in sults especially primes in new york, which happened a month ago and they're still counting the votet is that the results that we seel when we go to bed on tuesday at night look very different from

the results that we see when all of the votes are actually ce bet tallied up and counted. and in some caseses that means the difference between one candidate winning or other candidate winning. and now every vote counts. and a vote cast in the ballot n box on election day counts no more than a vote that you fill out on an absentee ballot and lt mail-in. and kind of ass a pillar function of our democracy, it isn important that we count all of the votes. so when you are watching thes i1 come in on00 election night, ev if it says 100% reporting, 100 precincts reports, that is nume somewhat r outdated terminology that does not reflect just the sheer number of mail-in votes that we are going to respect on election night. so election night, as we know it, could really be something more like election week depending on how close the races

are and how many people decide not to vote in person but rather vote via mail. penden >> wul nut, mississippi, this is jerry, an independent. good morning. >> caller: good morning.inks i like to ask mr. jacob what he thinks about the race in [inaud alabama. i'm notot talking about the primary. but i'm talking about doug jones versus tommy tuberville.person that could be one that could be a loss. i really -- i personally see the senate staying the same. susan collins or mcsally, either one to lose.till mak but 50/50, one of them will win, one of them will lose still make the senate about equal. what i would worry about is a to house. for republicans to pickus seats in the house. thank you.

>> jacob. >> well, it is certainly possible that republicans could pick up seats in the house. at the moment, it is about as likely for republicans to pick w up one oro two seats, perhaps a it is for democrats to pick up one or two seats, that might be shifting in the near future in d the democrats' favor.enta buttive it is certainly within realm of possibility that republicans could pick up a handful of seats in the house of representatives. though not enough to actually win back the majority. but to your question about alabama, if tommy tuberville, who is the polling leader in the republican primary emerges vicke orus tonight over jeff sessions, he will undoubtedly be the favorite going into november. andjone most democrats, they re like doug jones.ne a goo they think it is a phenomenal senator. he's done a good job fundraisinr andat he is a good fit for the t

state. he's as alabama as they come. democrats understand that he is the underdog going into that race. and so when the party strategists are doing the math in their heads, they're not th saying forget about doug, because they like doug and they think is an outside shot that if things go his way, if everything goes his way, he cac mightul be able to eek it out. but when they do that math, that internal calculation in their s head that say we need three seats if biden wins or four seats in biden loses, generallyg they start at negative one enate because they understand the nti challenges of winning a senate a seat in alabama in a presidential year. but it is not just collins and mcsally who are vulnerable. senator cory gardner in colorado, senator thom tillis in north carolina, and joni ernst

in iowa are in a precarious situation. texas and ts in could montana. even in kansas there is a possibility that that race could be become more and more competitive. the democrats have done a really good job of expanding the map te where they have multiple paths f toic victory. so even if they do start at negative one, because doug joned is not able to hold on to his t seat, there are plenty of ways to make up that difference and get themselves to that 50 or 51 park they need to control the senate. >> aboutsi 20 minutesde left wi jacob of inside elections.com, to check out their work and their race ratings. you mentioned iowa just a second ago. senator joni ernst, the democrat there, teresa greenfield. we dr here is two of their campaign ads back-to-back and we'll come back and talk about them. rist >> we drove c our trucks all ov baghdad, through terror cells su and ied's but we kept the supply

chain going because american ca lives count f on it. today we face a different supply chain threat. we rely on communist china for far too much, from technology to medicine. so i'm fighting to bring it itha home. joni i ernst, i approve this message because saving america starts with made in america. >> my dad used to say, on our farm, there are no boy jobs or girl jobs.king on just jobs that need to get done. so i learned to work.died, taking on part-time jobs duringc the farm crisis. after my first husband died i po went back to school while caring for two kids.m th thener workedes my way up to rug a small business. i'm m teresaessage greenfield a approve this message, because washington's not working for , folks in iowa.ds b let's changeack that. >> jacob, what do you take from those two ads back-to-back?sidee >> well, very interesting to see. iowa was notgenerall considered

the top tier races when the cycle began. generally folks thought that senator joany ernst in her first term was a recumbent and the t largest swingto b from an obamaa trump state. a lot of democrats were not considering it to be in the top tier of pick-up opportunities. but that has changed and that race has since become a toss-upm and we could see why in both ofa those ads.cause it to start with the one from senator ernst, it is a fairly solid ad because it begins with hisshe career in military servi which is one of the major calling cards when she burst on the political scene in 2014. and it begins there and it eas reminds voters thatt joni ernst put on the uniform and served overseas in dangerous situations and then it pivots to china. n

and what i hearow from a lo of u republicans is that as the coronavirus pandemic has continues to affect americans as the economic fallout continues to put millions of people in unemployment, focusing on china andategie using it as an antago has become you hav one of the d republican strategy we're seeing across the board.. on the other hand, you have teresa greenfield who in many ae ways is mirroring the same path that joni ernst took in her race in 2014. teresa greenfield grew up on a l farm. and she often talks extensivelys about her experience o growing e in rural iowa. no girl jobs, no boy jobs. it harkens back almost to senator ernst's famous ad make n them squeal why wr they talked about growing up on a farm and learning how to castrate hogs and she was going to go to

washington, d.c. and castrate . some hogs there too. so greenfield is saying, joni ernst is the senator and now the republican establishment, i'm the girl who grew up on a farm and then she's saying i have this amazing life story and she talks about this often on the stump, that teresa greenfield's first husband was tragically rei killed in a factory accident. and it was because of e trag genefield's social security survivor benefits that she was able to survive that incredibler tragedy onen her family as a yog single mother with children.the and she's made social security . social safety net a pillar of her message.d go to so greenfield's message is ernst said she would go to washington and make them squeal but all she did was go to washington and work for the big guys. and i'm someone who is going to be able to go and work for the little guy because i've been in

that situation before. greenfield got off to a little bit of a shaky start right er before her primary. there were questions about whether she wass really up to te challenge. but democratsshe arer th reallyy comfortable with what they're seeing from her these days. she's done a great job of fundraising. and senator ernstaid, t has just caught kind of flat footed. because like i said, this race was not expected to be a marquee race at the beginning of the cycle and it is only recently nt that it has become one of those. and that makes it difficult if you're an incumbent senator if you haven't really been plannine to be in the race of your life y and all of a sudden you have to ber degr everywhere all at once raising money and your actions are scrutinized to a greater degree and you find yourself in a really competitive situation.n so that is going to be a prettyi great bell weather for senate control is that senate race in iowa this fall.

>> tony onn twitter with this sh comment. the two iowakin commercials are refreshing, no name calling andv ite addresses the issues. ond idea of negative ads, that is where we seem to go by the at end of thehe cycle. why? >> well, because they're effective. i think that if political strategists and candidates ys te didn't believe that negative ads worked, they would stay away from them. because there is the possibility of blowback, of voters reacting poorly to a negative ad. but candidates and campaigns generally agree that they are an effective way of changing the race to yoursc favorathi and ino modern information age, the more scathing an attack ad perhaps, e it doesn't just air n on tv and get viewed by viewers, it gets m

picked upin by the news media ai it getsts ori discussed and disseminated in a much wider format than justice original air on tv. so you have the opportunity to almost go viral as it were with a campaign ad and kind of redow. your value of your investment beyond what you just initially paid to get it on tv. and one of the really interesting things we've started to see in the cycle is that a candidate will run a negative ad attacking another candidate and the candidate who was attacked will run their own ad saying that ad is false, that my opponent is lying about me. and then the original candidate will run a third ad kind of attacking the attack on the ho attackof ad. and you almost kind of -- you go down this rabbit hole of retracting attack ads.

and it is not clear to me that by the time you get to the second or third order derivative of the original attack that voters are really able to follow what is going on. that said, the original attacks, if they stick, could be incredibly devastating. all you have to do is look at maine. wad and the notion that susan collins voted to overturn roe a versus wade by putting kavanauge on the bench, that has been a defining issue of this race since the kavanaugh hearings happened. and despite collins' statementst that she supports roe versus in wade that she saide has he pery told her that it was settled law. that line has followed her around for the last two years.

and it has no signs of going away. so when you find an effective message that you could use chac against your e opponent, you absolutely want to seize it.oulb because there is a chance that that could become the defining n message of the race and that o could be very help afl to you as a candidate. >> about 15 minutes left this morning with jacob of inside elections. yoel has been waiting in silver spring, maryland. t good morning. >> caller: question.hink w in the alabama race who do they want to run against, and who do you think would be easier to bet? >> so, democrats are divided about this question. though most of them approach itf with the feeling that whicheverl republican emerges from that primary is going to be a very formidable challenger and will n start out the election as the fe favorite. there are certainly reasons why democrats might want to face

either one of them.r presid one of the story lines of this y republican primary has been jusw how far president trump has gone out of his way to attack jeff trump, sessions, his e own former attorney general. trump, ever since senator sessions recused himself from the russia investigation,agains realliored this very deep-seeded anger against him and that has really come out in full force d over the course of the primary. trump didn't just endorse tuberville, he needles sessions on twitter, goes after him and makes very clear that tuberville is the preferred choice. what does that mean? it means if jeff sessions somehowced wi manages to pull o. upsetet in this primary, presidt trump will be faced with a choice. is that he'll either have to turn arounde andhas endorse j sessions, a man who he has bad mouthed to the press for the last two years, and hope that ri

jeffn sessions can win that ra and help keep the republicans in the majority in the senate, or he can give in to his perhaps more basic instincts and not extend any sort of helping hand to a man that he really has no interest in helping. so some democrats think that ifd it isis sessions, that kind of nuance betweenen the president d sessions could make the race better for doug jones. on the other hand -- >> and now a hearing on creating a national cyber director in the executive office of the president to stream line the federal government's response to cyber attacks across agencies. the house oversight and reform committee is hosting this hearing. this is live coverage on c-span3. >> -- the warnings we had and decisions made about the most recent