sentence. in that speech is where he and if there must be a wall, it must have a great gates that can be opened to all who want to come here. that is an enormously confident statement about our values that moving in the toward home. yeah. and what it says is not just that we're a beacon, but that those beliefs spread by our commitments to them. it's the same sentiment as. lincoln's right makes my speech at cooper union that started the republican and there's an arc between lincoln and reaganism. it ends it ends on 911. and i on george bush's campaigns and the promise of what george bush was doing with being very pro immigration, pro hispanic pro diversity. if you i guess, in today's parlance, was that confidence,

the universality. a 911 the administration changed the party changed and the country changed and you saw that stuff that was pat buchanan back in the dark corners of conventions become the dominant isolationist protection. this nativist and that's not conservatism as i know it. so i reject the idea that there's know populist conservatism, that those are two diametrically opposed ideologies. it's like being a dodgers of the giants. and, you can't do it. you want to think you can, but you really. yeah. so you so this was became a driving for you and other conservatives to start the lincoln project. yeah. which you worked on in 2020. talk about your work on that and this idea of the bannon line. yeah so you know i got a call from a reed galen one of the eight members who said, mike, you know, you've been very vocal, very vocal critic and

unwavering and you're kind of fearless. they knew rightfully that if we spoke out that we would be mercilessly attacked including threats to our family, to my children, attacks on everything from my technology, my business, just massive, massive impacts. because the thing about it trump is i'm not i'm just general call it that is the where when i was growing up the main inviolable characteristic republicanism was raising taxes you just do that. now today it's you demonstrate fealty to the leader. whatever donald trump says is the orthodoxy, and we all follow. and that that's nothing republican or conservatism. i knew, but they knew. they knew that in order to enact discipline that fear is the tactic that they so we knew that we were going to be made an example of.

and that, of course, happened. all of that happened. but there were eight of us. most of us were political. george conway, who's become a dear friend, is as an attorney by trade. with remarkable political instincts. and we you know, we launched it in december of 2019. this right at the beginning of the first impeachment hearing. and what we realized was the republican senators were not going to allow evidence to be heard in the senate. and the evidence course was overwhelming and -- with the president was literally on the phone shaking down zelensky like, there it is. and so the republicans, like, we're not we're not going to allow that into the impeachment hearing. and we realized that's how how corrupted the whole system had become. and. at some point, political consultants became the moral backbone of the republican party. so that was us and we we we took

the fight to him and we expected, i think, raise five or 6 million bucks, maybe play in a couple of we ended up raising about $100 million and it was the probably the most pac in american history. and tipped into pop culture and and we were we were, i think, very consequence in the outcome of that race. but you had really modest aims. i mean, i think you seemed like you approached in terms of i do data and again so about politics is about emotion and i think that's why i love it is because it's just so like right now with the president was lighting hair on fire, running in circles and rolling the ground and wailing and teeth gnashing and oh my god, what's going to happen? and you show them the data and it's like the differential of what's going to happen is like marginal and i think i've i learned that in campaigns, the person who's the most confident in control has the most knowledge of what actually happening with voter behavior. and i think it just naturally

made me a little bit calmer. and so i, i developed what i the bannon line named after steve bannon. and to show you kind of how campaigns work a little bit is the expected patience for the lincoln project were getting really of control. people were like, are you going to start a new party and can you run new candidate against and you get 50%. and i was like, that's not how this works. and steve bannon in the new york times had said, you know, if we lose 5 to 7% of the republican base. we're to lose. and so i my political team together and i said, i want a press release to go out now and i want everyone, the members on their twitter feed to call this the bannon line and i want madrid. they're saying that's me by the way talking myself. the third person i want to get as much exposure with me saying that is the line. and if we move just 5 to 7%, we're going to win and i called it the bannon line because i

didn't want to say it's a bunch of lincoln project. republicans. steve bannon said it's true. and so that, of course, took off and, became a big thing. and steve bannon and i started fighting back and forth because and, you know, he said you're an old school rhino, which i took a great compliment. still want to get t-shirt that says old school rhino on it and he correctly you know and again it's i hate to say, you know there's some times you can just really you're on the same wavelength as somebody on the opposite side of a campaign that that's where steve bannon and i were. and i'm not proud of that. but i knew that when i called it the bannon line, i was it was a reference to the mendoza line and baseball and and and bannon went and referred to it as the mendoza line they're calling it the bannon line. so he knew i was thinking what he was thinking. he knew what i was thinking. they call that rent free, rent free in each other's heads and a great scene. and there's a documentary made about all this where i said, i'm

living rent free, and steve bannon's brain in his head. and he went out and did a press conference when he called me an old school rhino. and it was the day before he was arrested on the yacht of the chinese billionaire. so it's a great scene in the documentary if you haven't seen it what's the bannon line this year, higher? that's a great question because there isn't one. first, because it's not the same race and because of the shifting dynamics with latinos and with republican is moving in the other direction, you can't impart that one to is i can't say it's a bad in line until bannon says it's the bannon line. so he's going to have to agree first, right? i mean, technically, i guess i could just kind of take that that that sort of branding and make it up. but what i will say is this i at least i did before the debates, i believe the potential biden or any generic to get 10% of republicans to move over was very possible, which would be it

wouldn't be quite landslide territory, but pretty close. one of the shifts that we saw after the debates, we three shifts. this is i think most people are fascinating and this is largely taken from the new york times poll that showed biden slipping six points behind biden's actually has increased his his vote share with independents after debate. okay. but he's losing because a lot of democrats got weak kneed as you're seeing and hearing every and have moved not to trump off of buy off of biden that's very correctable that will come back. the other part though is the republicans started to consolidate where there were republicans who were like i don't think i do trump again maybe biden's not so bad. the economy is getting better. inflation is under control. i don't really like it, but this general stuff scares the hell out of me. i think i might be voting for

biden that. all went away. the debate. the republicans went right back and so republicans consolidated than i would expect. democrats are shakier than they will be in a couple of weeks and independents moved towards biden not by the numbers he needs, but in the right direction. and that's what i'm saying. the fundamentals still are the movement is marginal but the directions of each of those three category is are heading in the right direction, at least at the moment. you about the consolidation. and i do feel that's just we zoom out to the you know 2030 years that is a trend looking at where there just aren't the liberal rockefeller republicans aren't the conservative democrats. you used to see. i mean, when you're looking in this, you explore a lot this trend of the latino vote. to what extent are any gains that republicans are making with simply a product, republicans consolidating. i don't that the movement of latinos to republican party is part of a broader conservative.

i believe that the movement of latinos to republicans is part of much bigger populist movement and it is anti-state abolishment. and here's one of the things i really tried to bring up in the book is one of the things that's happening in this country right now, is a crisis in our institutions they're collapsing and it's broad, whether it's the media, government, churches, the military corporations, academia, these are all they're all collapsing. the trust and confidence of, the people that they exist to serve doesn't really exist. there's one great exception, and that is latinos have this very high level of trust and confidence in these institutions that make generally work. but democracy is american democracy anyway, specifically work. but there are two exceptions. the two exceptions are the democratic and republican party,

latinos have the weakest partizan anchor of any race or ethnicity. we have the highest likelihood of disaffiliation from both parties. we have of the lowest turnout rates. some of which i would argue is a function of poverty levels. but for those that it's not, it's a disaffiliation from the parties because neither one is selling what they want to buy. and you also have, for example, the two american politicians who overperformed significantly above conventional and data polling or bernie sanders, donald trump and think that the most anti candidate in the race today is clearly donald trump, which think is part of his appeal. i will say one of the thing about that, which somewhat of a qualifier, if you take a look at ron desantis in florida, greg abbott in texas, doug ducey, the former republican governor of

arizona, even brian donnelly here in california, the kind of sacrificial lamb that ran against gavin newsom, they have one thing in common. they all met considerably exceeded numbers with hispanic voters and every single competitive house seat in the country. the republican candidate overperform donald trump with hispanic that is very strong evidence that donald trump is not latinos to the party he is limiting much further the natural growth that would be happening because of the assimilate of an economic factors that i talk about in the book. so if trump was not the ballot, any other republican would be doing considerably better than trump in the polls right now, at least as much as can be with a highly negatively charged environment. but it would be much they would be doing better demographically

in. states like arizona, nevada, wisconsin georgia, north carolina, pennsylvania. well let's talk about one of the places where that's happening, and that's the grande valley. yeah. in texas, you devote a whole chapter in the book to the trends there. i mean, is that a place where you see as some sort of kind canary in the coal mine, maybe? no, i don't. i mean, what was trying to do and i talk about north carolina, i talk about arizona, nevada, and you have to talk about the rio grande valley, because it is it's actually quite exceptional. the grande valley is very rural and it's very multigenerational. by that i mean, people in the rio grande valley are not newcomers. texan hispanics have been there for oftentimes hundreds of years. and you have seen some of the most significant shifts to the right, in large part because of their demand for stronger border. and that was why i wanted to put that in there is because that that is that what i was doing when was doing focus groups. antonio villaraigosa, the gubernatorial campaign.

i remember sitting in fresno, in bakersfield and bringing in latino voters who immigrants themselves all legal at the time, but some two or three of them in the group had come undocumented ago and then left and then come back to legal. at least five 40% of them were like no, no more migrants no more illegal migrants, let alone undocumented migrants and that that sentiment 30% of latinos voted for proposition 187. so that sentiment is very keenly it's greater now because of the assimilation that i'm talking this third generation voter when when joe biden signed, the executive order on asylum restricting asylum refugees, 69% of latinos supported it. that's compared to 70% of all americans. so there's basically no discernible difference in. and after 30 years of watching these immigration fights back and forth, it's become very

clear to me that the democrats have lost that. and what i will argue because i had a front row seat on both sides of this thing, both parties have benefited politically from a broken system. both of them, the democrats have tried to it as a way to mobilize latino voters, turn out by demonizing republicans. the republicans have made it very easy be demonize, but the republicans, of course, have used it to turn out their white non-college-educated base and overperform. but as long as that problem, they've got a political base, which is in large part why the republicans walked away from the deal that they they crafted earlier this year, they weren't about to give that up because they're like, well, wait a second. yeah. it's like, you know, arafat negotiating peace. once you give him everything you want. i got all i didn't really mean it like i'm out of here right. i don't exist unless conflict. and that's that's what the republicans did earlier this. well, i was thinking, you know, reading that in the rio grande valley, thought about imperial

county. you're in california, spent some time there, a few years ago because that was the biggest 2016 to 2020 protocol. exactly. in the state. and there you have a border community that that views the border just in terms of a cultural issue. but it's a jobs issue. right. so many people are working. correct in their border patrol and you have in my mind. i saw just a real absence of, democratic presence, the media, even the media market there was the yuma, arizona media market. so, i mean, what to what degree or maybe these case studies, whether it's calexico or the rio grande valley, a, where democrats are kind of just ceding ground, they're not. well, that's that's a minefield. it's a great way to put it. and that's the right word. i would take it a step further. no journalists tip for, you know, journalists yet has written the central valley of california and the rio grande valley of texas. these are both very similar not once, not on the border central valley, but these are producing agriculture communities in rural red parts of the country. those shifts are happening there for largely the same reasons. so but but the word feeding

ground. exactly right. like when i watch what the what the democrats messaging is with latinos right now, it's clear to me they're either completely, totally, grossly or they're just ceding the ground and doubling down on jobs and abortion and more on the college educated shift that's already happening which is not a bad strategy. i mean, i think it's unnecessary, but but that's what seems to be they're doing because i can't figure what the hell they're doing. right. i think in some case i would say, you democrats and maybe you think that they've over learned the lesson, but you see these examples of, whether it's prop 187, the you know, sb whatever it was and arizona 1070 even trump's rhetoric and 2016 that the identity concerns latinos suddenly get spiked is that high attack. yeah but understand and this is kind of my the point of the book is that works remarkably when the dominant part of the latino community is an immigrant, when

they're the grandchildren of immigrants, often than not, those grandchildren on the side of those pushing for more border security. that's the big change. and that's that this moment this year. the reason i wanted the book out this year, the next 30 years of latino politicians and politics is going to be 180 degrees different than the last 30 years of latino politicians and latino politics. that's the that's the book. that's the century. and it's that nexus as both parties struggle to identify what what it means to be a minority. when latinos aren't behaving like minorities are supposed to behave right. like, what does that mean? and what does that struggle mean for the parties when they don't know exactly what to do. let me characterize it like this, that the party that's able to secure the hearts and minds and ultimately the of a multi-ethnic working voter group

will be the dominant party the next generation, the democratic party still hasn't realized. it's not a working class party anymore. in fact, the democratic party, get this, the democratic party is less diverse racially and ethnically. now than at any time since before the 1964 civil rights act. it's becoming wealthier, whiter, more progressive because the the democratic party is animated entirely by cultural issues. now, these are voters that are not impacted by the price of gas or a carton of eggs. they don't even know what that means anymore. but they'll fight, you know, to the fight, you know, on dobbs and control and marriage equality. there's nothing wrong with that. but they're increasingly removed, from their working class base that it's like i just i didn't pay rent on, like i got my kids. you know, signed for soccer league. i don't know if we can make work

and. the republican party is has been good on the working class, but they've struggled with the multiethnic what are the benefits theory of is this third and fourth generation non latino that is driven more by economic than by the racial or ethnic because they don't feel that different they're not that different and. so that's why this and again, it's not a shift, an emergence, because these are all young, by the way. these are not old democrats that are like i don't think i'm with the democrats anymore. these are all massively huge number to milk. it's 4 million new latino voter ers will be on the voter rolls compared to years ago. that is crazy. and it's going to start growing exponentially after that. so all of this growth and 80% of it is u.s. born but you can't build a wall to stop it. it's already happened. right? these are these are the grandkids and great grandkids of

immigrants. i think democrats in, places like nevada, places like california would say the antidote to the degree that you're talking about is organized to. what extent do you think that's a scalable solution for democrats to lean into? unions which provide not only kind of working class agenda, but also an identity? well, it's worked in nevada, but nevada, the size of like san mateo county, right. and it's arguably more fun. yeah, well, a lot more fun. sorry, but like nevada, nevada, determined by clark county and the culinary union, which harry reid kind built up. and there was really tension. they didn't want a lot of the latinos in the union, which is not uncommon with unions. they don't want immigrants specifically because they drive down the price of labor and competition. but once accepted that, you know, over half of the culinary now is latino and i talk about

this in the book and it has brought pretty consistent since the harry reid era and it made what should demographically kind of a republican state a i don't say reliably because nevada, the one swing state that is more republican, all the others demographically have been moving towards toward a more bluer position. nevada has actually for the past three election cycles become more. and so they're they're holding on to it by margins. but let's talk about unions generally really quickly, latinos have the lowest unionization rate of any of the race or ethnic groups to and it's not that there's like a culture of labor we're also the most likely to in the gig economy and not saying that's a good thing i'm saying it's matter of survival. so there's not that that natural proclivity for it and for labor to catch to actually make it a

force i think is probably not right solution because i'm not convinced as i tell my lorena gonzalez, who's the head of the afl-cio in the state, unionization from a data no offense is, it's a it's a last century solution to a new centuries. you can't organize your way out of the challenges that working class people are experiencing. the economy doesn't work that way or industries don't work way. so i don't, i mean, in some small selected markets nevada being one of them it does for the time being, california yeah. i would say the most pro-union probably in the country has a real problem with turning latinos out and we've got one of one of the lowest unionization rates any any race or ethnic group in now in the state of the country. i want to get into some these great questions that we got from the audience. one is do you think spanish language skills are important to win latino in the future? spend lot of time on this and

this is a big fight. great question. whoever asked it, you get extra points. let me ask the audience a question. if i could. what percentage do you think of latinos prefer? their news in spanish? nish what percent? any guesses? 12 higher. lower. 40%. 35. it's about 17%. so any poll that has than 17% is not a credible poll. in fact, i talk about this at length in the book a lot of partizan democrats oversample spanish language speakers because it gives them a much more skewed issue set that that their clients and even though it's accurate, it makes people in the party happy and both parties do that unfortunately. so no spanish language with latinos is not a very part of

the electorate anyway. population is very different, but in both it's shrinking and it's shrinking dramatically. and there's a demographic reason for that too. if i can bore everybody, i know we've got some questions, but let me bore everybody with a little bit data. the actual the peak of immigration from the eighties, early 2000s stopped at about the year 2000 just as the engine of capitalism was melting down. the economy wasn't. there was no market for lot of the industries employees that were were coming through both legal and illegal means. there has a lull in our immigration up until. biden took office in 2020, 2021, 2021. so there's a year lag lull a decline despite fox says fox news, there has been a decline in and that has created a real problem for the univision's and

telemundo's of the world because their market is shrinking, it's collapsing it's falling apart. i don't know if you guys remember the scuttled about trump doing the interview on univision and everyone's going, oh my god, anything turning wing? no, they're just desperately trying to find market somewhere because. their audience is collapsing. and that narrative that spanish speaking immigrant narrative, that stereotype is also tightly of what the orthodoxy of democratic party is. narrative is. that's the issues that they drive the problem is as that shrinks as a share of the latino electorate, so does the efficacy of the message. this question is about the gender gap within latino voters asking about the shift of latino men and maybe you can kind of explain the kind of gender forces that work within this electorate. it's a great question, actually this is one of those fascinating things about what's happening. wanted to write a whole book on this, but i thought it probably better done by a latina to write it herself.

we have the largest gender of any race or ethnic group in the country, or women vote more for the democrats, men vote more for republicans. i believe it's very closely correlates to the education divide because our women go to college at much rates than our men do. and so their political opinions are changing, manifesting very differently. we also, as a community women to office at much greater rates than any other race or ethnicity and anybody who understands culture. there's the stereotype, machismo. and i guess we would they call that toxic man masculinity here in the states but machismo is really kind of a it's a negative stereotype. it doesn't have much grounding or evidence. it and i try to talk it in the soft qualitative ways with, you know, the virgin and la malinche and other other, you know, iconic cultural figures that drive our perspective latinos, but where it can quantified is

an actual elections where actually choose who we're going to vote. and latinos in california, example, the legislature there are more women, hispanic women than hispanic men. texas even is it about 45, 55 benefiting men. but i point out in the book hispanic, women, hispanics, in really in one generation have accomplished white women have not been able to accomplish since suffrage, which is basically parity, gender parity in elected office. this question is about voter participation. what are some ways in which latino voters can be encouraged or increased participation. the general election really for all cycles. there's two. the first is start talking to them about the issues that they have been screaming that they want to hear about for 30 years in every poll i've looked at and i've probably looked at more political polls of latinos than anybody in, the country, the latinos are saying it's jobs the

economy, affordability issues, and yet the messaging comes out from both parties over. whelming lee is about immigration it's about a racial or ethnic component to try to compel and that's strong. i think the is for people who are not hispanic or frankly that are white to to impose a racial lens on people it's like there's there's this innate need to say well if they're not white then there's level of aggrieved there's some level oppressed, there's some level of distinction and i think there's probably a good reason for that with black voters. but we're not black voters. and and that i think, is one of the real challenges that both parties face. that's the first thing i would say. the second, again, and this is the data guy and me, there's a very strong correlation between those who do not vote and those who are poor. and it doesn't matter if you're black, the deep south or white in appalachia or latino in east

los angeles. if you're poor, you don't vote. and we a poverty problem in california and we don't talk about it nearly enough because the dominant party definitely does not want to talk about it. but there's there's a massive problem which is becoming, because of housing affordability and, intergenerational problem. and if you're pro-democrat casey but you're not pro economy, at some point, those are going to run into one another. if you're not creating a healthy economy for working class people. and a lot of economic opportunity your democracy is going to come. it will fall apart because what you're creating is a pyramid of fewer and fewer people at. the top of the pyramid of one race and ethnicity and more and more people of poverty, of a different race and ethnicity. and that story has never ended well in the course of human history, ever. and that's what that