trump administration. >> only start with you and made a lot of strong support on donald trump foxbusiness news. in addition? what does he need to do to get this going?

>> i think is a lot of what you said. i suggested prime minister of japan arrows. left, from behind my desk because i do divided last chance out of this massive debt by chair, her idea to get rid of the inflation turning head of the economic council and the tax

showed. and that respirator. and 50% of the time you don't come out. the what i do i think, not cut spending in the defenses vestment from 4% of two and a

half blowout of the deficit and the soviet union. the defense and deregulate growth in the commitment during the budget deficit down by 2028 is a financial markets person. and you don't have to give us 20. in that current house in order

and 3% growth evite 2028. a 3%, 3 million four crews equivalent today using the million%. the other three million. >> what you think you should do right out of the gate but the top two priorities. >> make it here he will packet budget deficit should implement

the policies to start probably. >> streaming thing. >> fiscally responsible and ask, and now that he is going to follow through on deportation, there are 1.5 million of deportation.

this will the founder and ceo of the group global investment firm and prior to that, the investment officer and a number of rules and among them we are

seeing. outside of the world of finance and a prolific philanthropist. please journey and welcoming scott. [applause] you only recently started publicly on larger questions of public policy of the 2024 election. what motivated you in the direction of the american economic policy? >> thanks for having me. we have heather mcdonald. i don't need anymore but it is a good question, i've always been politically interested,

politically adjacent to geopolitics live in economics and gravity. so for a long time have been analyzing economic situations. the 2023, 24, from behind my desk and it's a unique moment here. and that spending.

we do not have a tax collector problem, we have a spending problem. amid an economic historian and for better or worse i can tell you what the budget deficit was in 1967.

and i saw about inflation. and in a bad mood or what. and we see trump 1.0 and labor

and growth that we had i thought was phenomenal. economic historian markets for 40 years. and it is a moment geopolitically. and a grant global economic.

and back to the steel agreement. and have that over the next years. a unique skill set. and republican coalition.

in. and it was so unlike that, they feel as though they are not adequate, and sold it and donald trump went to jail. these people at the event are business people, first generation, they are franchise owners and not ivy league.

and make sure it gets bigger and bigger and where you think a second term will take the country economically?

and what you see it after that. >> giving away so much money and they are popular. and that's not happening. and jfk economic. complex. these are linear programs and they have gotten result.

in the investment high. loaded before again. and one of the former annals talking about the biden administration and it is called for the driving hitting the gas in the brakes. i think that is what's happening here and this inflation, they

are going to forgive him. >> you even a nice head where he can come back and the economic policy. >> we had this steep price will decline. and we are getting it tomorrow. it has come off the job market in that way. that should not be a tool in the toolkit for inflation could you

imagine it would be and the arrival. and if i look at these policies, what i believe is a slot machine trying to make micro adjustments so they have the great inflation in the market takes off and mortgage rates take off. and a subsidy in all of these

are irregularities in the system so unhealthy but the real problem in the house market 12, 18 or 24 months. it typically takes 24 months so that will be more competition. and with the top down view. and at the micro level.

>> that is not on that. and what is coming and what you think it should do? cutting the key policy right now and cut because the europeans exercise, level of prudence there is a natural economic cycle. jay powell has been for whatever

reason, he's felt compelled in this decision last fall. november and summer and he walked out of the press conference and give guidance and great cuts for coming the financial decision. by doing that, question of which benefits the top 20% we are back to the bottom 50%. the rates have had to stay higher for longer. the igniting economic growth and reseller reading when it could have been slowing, cutting

rates. i would predict it won't slow down inflation, i think it will be an economic wobble. >> a quarter of negative growth or something? >> or a slowdown, and economic slowdown. administration has tricks up their sleeve november 6, november 7100, 150 billion for the retention text and start getting mailed out. >> student loan forgiveness and a variety of others in the

economy. >> back to the younger voters turning on president biden so i've seen the numbers and under 35 cohorts are attached to the democratic party and a big portion of that and the other thing philadelphia fed has been measuring credit card delinquencies. in the income growth in the credit card delinquency at 3500. >> there's a difference in the tax policy proposed.

in tax on the middle and lower income. i view 2024 to grow our way out. amount of debt you have to go to hire taxation. an opportunity to grow our way out.

i am cynical about the and the assets may be on productive really they've gotten rid of scoring, replacing things at work and work less well and now they will say with journalists spending as part of a series of ten or 12. my number one you do it through tax policy after-tax return the wrong thing.

biden says in less than 400,000 same level as ordinary income this is worse and worse. >> and their is over taxes indirectly. >> we saw and investment boom 19 and 2017 tax cut and they were good and they are worse, one 100% on day one.

i'm on foundation board and three years to make it not very. we said we don't want to be entrepreneur. what was fascinating six out of eight were not. that was high and but those people can be singapore and would be and we will drive that class. >> you noted early on was all

the trump presidency as crude adaptation. think about departures and how to reaffirm, talk to us. >> let's go back to where we were in 1980. reagan human inflation, the great place and that soviet union. trump cayman in the have not been strong and they both went this, they both focused on biggest external threats.

oblivion had a different idea china. in push things forward. whichever think what biden's .0 would be. and whoever. joe biden went, he has a mandate

for planning. in the energy independence. and across-the-board increase. is there a role for tariffs? >> alexander hamilton and

generate revenue. through paris and it is negotiated. and it will change the quality and fairness historically for trade deal. and they talk about a function of that trade agreement. it is one way to remedy that.

the economics background. interaction and calculus i don't think -- the conservative agenda, they do have is that i think it is part of the calculus of all the tools in the toolkit.

for the next administration. >> all will and with the chinese, a lot of these systems in excess reserves the level of access tilting the trade agreement is not the level of the currency press subsidies, there's something close reserves.

and you are accumulating these, you're moving out of treasury. >> right now is a product other states. >> we are not thinking about it, i think it is again when you are running massive deficits in the world, there is real all three, three and a half%. that is optimal over the

long-term and we have keep coming back to china. we think about the chinese currency and my firm shows the chinese currency on the model is now valued in a big internal evaluation very similar to 2011, 2012 in the currency is in three different equilibrium's. you have 99% of your citizens to present chance.

and getting money back. in the rmd is something we have to investigate. and the credit of the time it was important pair so we have to rethink for the u.s. and there are six reserve currencies.

in france, uk. the military. we want to keep reserve currency status and the budget projection 41% and you can't keep your reserve currency status. >> the japanese prime minister inflation.

you are advising knowledge of what would you suggest for successful president. >> 3% real economic growth inflation and take over. i would urge him to make public

the average for u.s. energy production. and the drivers of expectation. primary deficit king at that.

us about the path you considered politically realistic. when you think of multiple author it won't cause an enormous amount of low-paying. >> it's going to include and reinstate the tax cut in general

we can tame the green new deal in a trillion over ten years and discretionary spending do think the market will respond to the period of been outspoken people

talk about politicizing treasury but there's a chance to get into the out cost. i think it's been proven and it's driven by high deficit see it in this will.

more than the defense budget. he has privatized himself but they are a national defense. during a conflict.

when the cold crisis of the war crude and the economic. and that there are no interest rates increased this year. president trump with the right policy could create a self reinforcing cycle on the downside. the entitlements are massive

walk our way under control. protecting the american industry. and that is the source of revenue. and biden announced his own. other it's.

it amounts on the council and the current depreciation and two thirds of the. electing 10% and 7% of that for you. you are using it as a geopolitical.

thing about the biden policy, anything they don't like and the market failure. you said the work and what needs so in terms of bilateral trade agreement values we should make it very clear. >> there is will we will not love you.

>> in terms of. >> the tax cuts and what makes you think of that, what makes you think it will go better. >> we are working on weight is an the elections and it never

went. then we get covid we don't know, things were going very well so not sure, i reject the few minutes not important for the country will include laundry and i think it would have gone down so i think it was a home run by the private sector. the demand was met with

deregulation as opposed to now it is meant by regulation. ... are they optimistic? and could you also give me an idea of who they want to see? >> i will work backwards it. i have no particular expertise but i can tell you, i think they would be happy with the list

that leaked out yesterday. the wall street group would be very happy with that. i think the wall street group was always going to come back. what i find more interesting is the venture-capital cohort who is supporting president trump and what they say in las vegas, new shooter. this is a completely new group. is being socialized in silicon valley it is okay to be a republican, it's okay to support donald trump. i found the comments on why he's coming out in favor of donald trump, a lot of it was anti- biden sentiment. it's pervasive anti-semitism. but a lot of these policies, there are two candidates now.

there is a poor choice. that's a kind of jump the line i guess, over here. you mentioned you think if you can get real gdp potential gdp with most people's estimates is not much more than the previous administration. hasn't changed all that much maybe a shade here or there. 1.83 is a pretty big chunk. where do you see the big difference is coming from? cook said think the global economy is actually picking up.

if you look -- between trump and biden if you look at the economic data for biden the big jump is in structures. which is the manufacturing. mining, which is the energy industry was practically nil. you can get consumer excuse me, i think you can get consumer sentiment back. i think it can be export. i think it could be very broad based and a lot of it driven. just in the energy industry they could get a regulatory certainty. some of my clients for some of the biggest private families who are manufacturers in the u.s. i always ask them from trump won

.0 what was more important three of the tax cuts or deregulation? the tax cuts were nice but that regulatory certainty is what enabled us to do the massive cap acts. we would show up at the obama epa on a friday and we would see things from window guidance on a chemical facility. can we do this? what you think of that? there will be on site at the facility on monday. i think it can be across the board. i think once we can get inflation down, interest rates down then i think we can have proper housing. >> i hope you will indulge me on a bit more of a personal question. you live for many years in a london. you looked in the northeast united states they are back in her home state of south carolina.

one reaction i've heard from a number of folks on the political right is that in the wake of donald trump's experience in his criminal trial a lot of people come to believe that if you are someone who holds conservative political conviction it is no longer very wise for you if you or someone of means in particular someone who might be a target to reside in a deep blue municipality or state. someone who is a lifelong brooklyn resident, that is a dismaying thought. i wonder how you think about that. when you think and speak to other like-minded folks people who want to enter the public life, are you getting that sense as well? that you have to migrate given the changing climate? the enemy of the state.

the state is in a state government has maybe come to the forefront. its attackers, regulation, ease of doing business. again, regulatory certainty. this migration from the blue states to the red states is one of the largest migrations the post- civil war migration by american blacks out of the south. this migration back to red states started before there was a notion of the enemy of the state. i think there is a risk premium that's being created. it's being created on tax insurgency. i have one investment in

massachusetts. massachusetts put in eight tax and excess tax above a certain level. massachusetts is my biggest tax bill last year. i have one investment there. i think this idea of economic freedom i think it's economic freedom. i don't think we been degenerated yet to this idea of the enemy of the state, i hope we won't. i'm part of the republican party. i studied theory a lot and part of the republican party that is think the best revenge is the one on november 5 let's not set off tit-for-tat chain reaction traditionally, conservatives are the adults in the room. let's stay that way.

it is alarming. it is alarming on both sides to see the breakdown in the federal system. whether it was during trump with sanctuary cities we are not going to enforce the law. in the state of texas feel as though they have to enforce their own border. we've got to get back to this idea that the federal system does work. >> everyone please join me in thanking him. [applause] [background noises]

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