healthcare, this survey gone government spending gained two points and the deficit gained two points. it is again, a perception the democrats have -- the ball is in their court and they fumbled it. voters less confidence in the democrats now.çó health care, again, nbc news, "wall street journal" poll. the health care plan, goodñi id, bad idea?ñr in the long run, if the changes are made, do you think your own health care will cost you more? 53% say more.

33% say no. what is the take away >> my perspective -- americans like barack obama. they like him personally. they want him to succeed. there is growing concern he is taking on too much and relying on government to provide the

answers. they want him to do well. second -- the growing concern is overspending and the devil -- federal deficit. this is a huge issue in our polling. when voters up for cutting a deficit over more economic stimulus, considering the country's number-one problem, you know it is a huge issue, the overspending of the federal government. next is obama's honeymoon is over, the political capital for expanding government is gone, and he is on his own. he ceded to congress the authority to do health care reform without winning a strong voice to it. the ratings of congress are not particular good and nancy pelosi's ratings are not good. she is more on popular now than newt gingrich ever was. but don't mix it -- mistake the

shift in democrat fortunes for people falling back in love with the republican party. we are not there yet. americans are simply losing faith in the democrats losing checks and balances. they have not fallen in love with the republican party again but they have fallen out of love with the democrats. if i am a democrat -- i have been in this negative politicalo election cycles and i know this pretty well. we have a long way to go. 10 months is multiple political a desperate with 10 months to go before the next political election. the political environment will said -- change several times between now and then. nobody knows what will happen but the political environment will change dramatically. second key point -- but republicans do not stand for

anything once we get a chance to tell our side of the story and expose them as nothing more the naysayers, we look in the benches. democrats are saying that by a much for that is the case. they will try to run the campaign against republicans but they will say that they don't stand for anything. voters will not care that much. we will see. next, the current data does not factor in the boost that health care reform will bring democrats. once it is done, they will be appreciated. that is a top education campaign very the benefits will not kick in for a while. it will be defined by the lapses in the program. that will be a tough case. it may be the case that the current data does not reflect the passing of health care by the senate on christmas eve but i am not so sure voters will like what they see right now.

finally, this is nothing like the 1994 election. the reason is, republicans in 1994 caught the democrats by surprise. that is absolutely true. in 1994, the democrats woke up before the election and knew they were in trouble. in 2010, that the two minute warning in football is right now for the 2010 election. that will give them lots of time to raise money and prepare for what could be a difficult political environment. we have obama. once he clicks into the campaign mode, that will get voters to the polls. that is much easier said than done pretty using a popular president to motivate voters to get them to go vote and they don't feel like it will be a tough job.

that will take every ounce of ability these guys have to be able to increase the turnout. i was involved in an ohio campaign this pasture, a casino campaign, our entire goal was to try to increase the turnout among the two dozen 8 obama voters. it was extraordinarily tough to do. we spent tons and tons of money trying to do that. it only inched up a little bette bit. will you indulge me? how much time we have left? 45 minutes? great. it probably won't take a break you up into campaign teams now under unexercised. -- into a campaign exercise. this middle group and the one

over here, form of three or four groups. here is your job -- we will pretend you are running a democratic incumbent campaign in the 2010 election. the date is september 9, the day after labor day in 2010 gori i am your pollster. i will give you some data. you need to come back and say that given this data, what direction should be taken this campaign? it is the day after labor day, 2010. is everybody ready? all right -- here is what is going on board that you for coming to the meeting today. the mood of the country, voters

are. pretty indicated. obamas rating is pretty even. the generic balance -- i want to remind you is if people would vote today, democrat or republican, the generic tendencies, we are only done by three points on that. that is good. the presidential vote in this district -- this district went for obama by 34%-55%. our candid it -- 54 percent of our voters have a favorable impression of our candidates and 34% unfavorable. our republican challengerçó, 27% favorable, 20% unfavorable.

speaker policy is about where she is nationally and the test is if the election was held today, we have a 10% margin. your jobs as campaign teams is to come back to us as a group, tried to have a consensus, what do you do next in the campaign? how you assess these numbers? what do you think almost strategic imperatives in your campaign to do immediately after see these numbers? ok? break up, guys. if you can do for groups, that would be great. 1, 2, 3, 4. start talking.

[general chatter] ñi[general chatter] [general chatter] >> we are less than two months away from rigid

-- he has favorable ratings. >> lot numbers for the challengers and people know that. >> when you come up with negative advertisements, few people know anything about this candidate. when people say this guy is not a likable -- -- electable. >> he is really low on favorability and still got 10% in the general ballot. i don't know if you want to be talking about this. >> yes. >> the only has 27%, -- i don't know. >> we have more money so -- >> we might be better off staying out of washington -- yes -- and getting out there with more events more often.

>> there's nothing we can do to change what people think of our candidates. it is pretty well decided what they think of the credit card which can be shaped his republican challenger. percentage wise, they prefer him in the ratio. he has the ability to grow and get momentum parwe want to impre his favor \ ability. ability. >> especially if they are #ávtt(r"ed. a lot of undecided might come over to him. >> this would make sense to increase his favorability. >> if you look at the generic

ballot, it is 42%-45% for our district and a book of the individual ballot, it is 36%. >> we will ignore that pat barrepath. >> it will show that what he did for the district. >> jolly and checking, ribbon cutting, and all that. he will do the kind of stuff. [genral chatter] >> he got 53% of the general vote but there was the landslide area.

should we say that he has work to do or should we run generic? >> i don't think we bring in up to the end of the moderate >> i support these policies and i don't agree with the others. many that will help pull -- be helpful.

let's be clear about this. >> are we decided that we're not going to do anything? >> that may shift their favorable numbers which are high now so we don't want to mess with those, i think. >> the best is the generic -- his best is the is the generic balance. >> want to go negative, you can't go back. -- once you go-, you can't go back. >> when he starts to gain

traction, there's a chance for you cannot let him gain momentum. he has the ability to grow. it looks like he is getting momentum and we need to cut a moderathim off. >> we have to stress that he represents everyone and not just the democrats. xjk>> we need to go at theñmy

present, -- we need to go after the 8% but says he is good but once you see the rise in the 8%, you'll see a decrease in the 36%. this hous>> i know our figures m the party% but we made real to pick up that in the primaries.

>> i think the negativity could work to his advantage. i am not saying it will be 45%- 46%. it should be a moderate level in the right way. >> it could totally backfire if you tied to -- try to raise the unfavorable from 8%, less people that do not know him and you see an increase in the tables as well. >> -- in the favre rebels as well -- in the favreables as well. --in the favorables as well.

>> what we went after the republican leadership? [general chatter] >> we have to show what our apartment stands for. -- our opponent stands for. you are doing his job for him. >> i would say to highlight his silver linings. i am sure the district got money

from the stimulus so what is the take away from that. with health care, highlight the silver linings of that. coverage is not because of pre- existing conditions, highlight that. >> if you attack the republican leadership and they are looking at the ballot, people say they do not know this guy but the behner guy is bad. >> you might say the incumbent he gave the park district privileges that require things like the fire department had a new fire truck.

they have given over $1 million to the district alone. you tie your income is a good things, not too bad things. >> it is a good way to turn the incumbency -- focusing on the health care about. vote. spot like the candidate's identity there is 8% that say he is pit bull but do not want to vote for it emphasize potential benefits of being an incumbent. is there anything else that we want to add? aç>> we don't want surrogates' coming in.

we don't want to see anyone but the president or the vice president. >> maybe emphasize that. maybe use real people. >> in terms of rhetoric, if you look at the mood of the country with only 34% saying we're in the right direction that the message of the campaign would be more of a future message. it is a good way of sort of tapping into the wrong track, sort of, opinion and placating that. that is all idea.

>> it the wrong track people are the people who'd be as strongly against this anyway, that might undermine >> it is like sarah palin saying we will change everything. >> we will have to seek it the 8% are independent para -- we will have to see if the 8% are independent. >> start the presentation. we have three groups here. we have asked each of these groups to come up.

we're protecting where a democratic campaign. it is the day after labor day. you have just gotten your call back from your democratic pollster. this was the date of privilege review this again. the middle of the country is 34% in the right direction, 55% in the wrong direction. obama is down a little bit but this district is 40 but%-50% per it be. in terms of the individual data on the candidates, we are looking at 83 or 4 term democratic incumbent. we are looking at the candidate who voted for health care, the democratic party and the to the

time for his district is 54% positive, 34%-for the republican challenger is a 28-8 per speaker nancy pelosi is 34-54 and if the election was held today, it would be 36-56. the 10% margin for the democrat ris. who is the speaker for this group of the middle? stand up. what are the action steps you'd recommend? >> arabic take away is that we need to stress the independent -- our big take away is that we need to stress the national landscape in general. nancy pelosi and obama at times because the republicans will continue to tie us to pass the policy. it would be better to peel away from both of them.

we would do that by stressing key votes. ubçwe would be strongly on one h the many ways. for the votes that we did vote for the same ones along them, stressed the tangible benefits that the district would be receiving. our candidate is doing better than the national democratic party is. that includes having surrogates like messrs. mayors and other neighboring representatives. -- mayors and neighboring representatives. we also found it interesting that he has a 54% favorability rating but your people would vote for him. we would like to figure out why

there is that discrepancy. >> why do you think that is? >> personally, i think it is the checks and balances. one person in our group brought the fact that they might like him but they think it might be better to have a republican in there to check obama. or because they might not be as enthusiastic. the key would be looking for those people. also, spinning it to the fact that if we are on the wrong track scenario, make our guide the guy who is on the right track and jews are the rights of the issue. -- and be on the right side of the issue.

talk about the tangible benefits of the key vote. and the virtue of being in the coming in general. >> banks. who is the spokesman for this group over here? >> 54%-30%, or on a favorable is only 28%-8% for if we can hold on to the 50% who approve of us, we have a good shot of winning the election while airport and is relatively. we felt the best way to go about this is by using positive advertising messages about the candidate with his family and apple pie and baseball, showing

he is a good all-american and the good things he has done for the district for it we felt the challenger could have potential to rise up. because so few people in the district of him, we feel it would be best if we do not bring him up any operate any attention drawn to him could only help him. since he does have room to grow, we need to have some negative ads ready but we do not run on less the republican challenger starts to get momentum. on the congressional ballot, it has 46% while the generic ballot has only 42%. the big difference is the republican going from 36% to 45%. there would like to have a republican but that just don't know enough about him and i don't like agree we need to keep him as low down as possible. the discrepancy between the democrats' approval rating at 54% but the generic in terms of

the approval, we think that is because they likened it as a person opposed to the candidate as their policy. we think it is a biographical ad that will highlight our candidate's personality, family, and showed he is a good person some of the policies may not be that great but if we feel we highlight a positive, that will be enough to get us through. >> thank you, good job. group number three? >> we agree with the first two groups and a number of things. we agree that we should distance ourselves but not that the national democratic party. we should say that we are independent and acting in accordance with the rest of the

democratic party when it benefited the district. we want to tie how the votes helped us break there are a couple of things that we differ on one, we want to take in consideration district of our approval and disapproval. it is only 24% have an extremely favorable position. that is a lot different than having 54% very strongly uprooting. we also want to look at the gop challenger. not listed up here are people that are undecided on the opinion verses don't know. if they are undecided and on the fence, that is a high number. it might be in our best interest to not attack his personal integrity but simply say that most people in the district want health care but he does not. >> we call the contrast advertising per [laughter] >> if they are not well-yáçknow,

we can keep it that way. maybe not have a debate with them the kind of show that under the rug. >> is that it? >> we would also try to tie ourselves to local issues. if you went to a local high school, go to a pep rally or something. you can watch your team lose or whatever. i would also try and stress that you are a three or four term incumbent and you were collected during the recent strength of the republican party. we would say that if you trusted me when the republicans were strong, you can trust me now. >> good job. what i like about what you guys have done here -- group number to show local support in making a personal identity not partisanship, that is very

smart. you guys are focused on the right things in terms of the favorability. the person not the policies will be a tough thing to get across. i will address that in the seconda. emphasizing independence and distance yourself from the top of the ticket -- you have no idea how tough that is to do. everybody alluded to that. let me share with you hell i would look at these numbers. truthfully, i have done these numbers. these are the exact numbers from the 2006 congressional race in pennsylvania except with the parties reverse. exact numbers. we lost. and we lost. here's the way i look at them --

political environment -- it is a negative environment for i. voters are ready for a change. obama numbers at 46%-50%, i can assure you that the intensity is on the negative side there will be real intensity against obama. you accept these numbers. the republicans are three points of the generic ballot and get obama won this district by seven points predellas a nine. shift. -- that is a nine. shif -- that is a nine point shift. everybody knows to the common is and he is down in the polls? that is not good for your political health. the most important number is the democratic incumbents image,

34%-50% hundred number when everybody knows this guy. you're not going to change the impressions that voters have. 84% of people in a district of opinion for you not change what they think about him. that will not happen. the republican challenger, 27%- 8%. let's look at the ballot test for democrats sitting at their position, you will got that, republicans at 36%, images of 27%. people are voting for the republican as -- because they don't]÷ care what the democrats. this election is about, right now, the democrat and the incumbents in office. it is about this.

if he has 46% of the vote, he is likely to get that on election day parade this election is about this guy. it is about his boat and his connections to nancy pelosi, connection to obama, it is about him as a democratic incumbent. if the race remains about him, he will lose as all of our guys did in 2006 and 2008. his chance of winning is to make about the republicans. you got a close this in terms of -- closest in terms of defining who your opponent is before they get their campaign off the ground. there are in artful ways of saying it. in real life, when i have these numbers, the real number was

not 27%-8%. when the candidates number was 30%-4%, i suggest we attacked. if we attacked him then, you'll never get his campaign. they will never look at this race again and i will discredit him and we will win reelection. our campaign decided to do that for other different reasons. we ended up losing the race because once you get to election day and decide that you will go- and contrast and that means -- that does not mean personal issues, it means on the issues. if you wait till election day, your toes. are toast. we have to assume that the democratic incumbent will have an advantage produce leverage your potential invented when you have it.

if you have a financial advantage, it behooves you to have a longer campaign. you want to take advantage of your money when the other candidate does not have it. when you think about your strategies in this campaign, think about what republicans tried in 2006 and 2008. they tried to distance themselves from george w. bush, right? how successful was that? ñryou think you will do it with eight weeks left before election day with your democratic incumbent? who has 84% hard name i.d.? unlikely. this is how the political and berman changes how you run campaigns agree with everything looks like it is turning against you, you have to be more aggressive. yes? >> what would your response be

to the argument that by packing the challenger, you could -- by attacking the challenger, you are increasing his name id and while you might increase his unfavorable by a technician, you might actually draw attention to and and get some people to faovr him. >> that is a good question their. two types of names id, positive and negative we are giving him the-kind. we will polarize the voters, desperatyes. if you ignore this guy and your own peril, you may lose to him. there's a saying that you cannot

beat somebody with nobody. that is warm. -- that is wrong. in the 1980 election cycle, ronald reagan swept into office. the republican congressional campaign in 1980, they did not have biographies for some of the republican challengers who won. they were not even on the map. it was stunning. you can beat somebody with nobody of the political and learned is that bad. it does happen. you have to be aware of that. if you have an incumbent with a 30% unfavorable rating, and setting four point above 50, you could be in trouble if he has a ballot test where your number is under 50%, you look at this

number, you are not 10 points ahead. you have to look at it as four points under 50%. you have to be at least a 50% to win the race. 46% does not cuti!. if the last poll before election day was a wednesday or thursday before election day and your numbers were 46% democrat and 44% republican, my prediction is you lose. in a this political environment. undecided voters voter against the party in power. ñrñç' in the bloomberg race in w york, what did they do? they did not vote for black corporate he got what he got. vg6ççs][[óms$v;sñiñiany questio? here is the deal -- this is your first lecture.

you have two weeks of this stuff. there's lots of information you will absorb and some you will reject and some you embrace but this will give you from work to understand how we are looking in the 2010 elections. it gives you an idea of how we're looking at the 2010 elections and how the political environment in packs how you run a campaign. let me wrap this up real quick. i'm a big baseball fan. there's a great story about ty cobb. he was a detroit player who played hard on and off the field. his manager sat down with him and tried to address this.

he puts in front of him two glasses. he fills one half full of water and one half full of gen. he says i wanted to watch carefully. he takes a brown paper bag and a as an earthworm in the background he puts it in the glass half full of water and the earth warm swims around. he fishes out of the class and puts it in the glass half full of gin. the earth warm diaspodies. he says to you understand this? he says he thinks he understands if i drink gin i won't get worms. [laughter] ty cobb missed the point of that demonstration dramatically. here's the point of this

presentation in the political environment -- the political environment, you think you can overcome the political and barman in an individual campaign? it is difficult to do. that is what you have toçó do in mostñrçóñi campaigns "'$eñ as a republican, i have been spirited dtrying. you need to factor that in. when you go through this in class in the next two weeks of what does this mean for a political campaign, how do i change what i will do otherwise. add white adjust my strategy, tactics and what i am telling a candidate to do in a campaign in order to achieve success knowing that around me it may not look th)pmsitive. ñiyou use polling is a planning device, as something that gets you from. a to point b.

it is only goodñi for today. anything can happen tomorrow to change these numbers. ñiñiñiyou need to pay attentiono what is going on around you. congratulations on beingñiñi hee this is tremendous that you're doing this. even though many of your ñidemocrats, but the district or in baltimore this is wonderful for the process and iújy love having you guys here. i love teaching new and potentially big new in the future but, seriously, the fact that you're involved in this process is great writ my son is also involved in this kind of stuff and he wants to do can pay as part of which she was here today with you guys. this will be a tremendous learning experience for the next couple of weeks. ask questions of the guys and produce. ask questions and get their e- mail addresses. stay in touch with these people

you want to follow up with barry we all have jobs. we are all hiring people and recommended people for campaigns. stay in touch with people you like and people you want to get to know. in another 10 or 15 years, you could be here teaching this class to the next generation. congratulations on being here. work your butt off in this class. good luck in 2010. i would be glad to take the questions. yes? >> can you talk about the fox news factor and how that affects the environment and if you saw anything similar in 2000-2001 and the opposite side and how that had any effect? >> there is a fox news effect in

may and msnbc of fact, it goes both ways. they generate enthusiasm and motivate the base. but the base excited. they do not appeal to the middle. that is important in campaigns. medstar with your basic and without to the middle. you will see more of that in 2010. i don't think -- republicans have fox news and democrats have the blogs underside. i don't think we generate as much enthusiasm as democrats do in the blogs. in 2000, each election cycle and that last two years, my kids were born in odd numbers of years, the american odd numbered years. we take is pretty seriously. [laughter] i have a cooperative right -- white. -- wife.

the 2000 election cycle, they had not heard of blogs. they did not exist. i'm not sure the analogies are quite there. another question? >> before the 2008 election, i was working for a candidate and one of the big things we saw in rural states like alaska and tennessee, the democrats act like republicans in certain issues. they are for gun-control. do you seek similar things happening with the tea party? i am starting to see that in florida. they are becoming different republicans, i guess. >> for republicans, dealing with the tea party movement is a challenge.

what you see is a real anger against washington on spending and other issues that if republican candidate does not voice that, there is usually 80 party candidate to do it. you will see that more in 2010. it could impact the impact the republicans will make. >> what do you think the first step for the gop challenger should be if they had those kind of numbers? >> if i'm in the gop campaign? >> where do you think the gop should go from there? >> what happened in this campaign, they attacked the incumbent. their first advertisement, our candidate said he has never run a negative ad an hour upon its very first ad was a contrast

that against us. they started off about going contrast. that is what i would do. i mean that as a good strategy. you stay aggressive. yes? >> you mentioned it new york. you are saying that even now, republican members have stayed stagnant and democratic members are plummeting. so there is still way +2 advantage. are you concerned that the generic ballot is 46%-44% democratic. are you concerned that half or more would branch often go to a tea party movement letting the democrat win by default? >> in a state like new york

there's a potential for multiple candidates in races and different endorsements and party lines. in most states, that is not really the case. i will take being down by two points in a campaign in every state. we have to be aware of the tea party candidates and what that means for our party. no question. yes? >> how much is the 2010 race going to be about motivating turnout compared to framing the race and the candidate? will be more about trying to get the obama voters out compared to not getting them out or is it about trying to distance yourself or not distance yourself from your party? >> that is a good question. i am not predicting -- i'm not sure that distancing yourself and the party is effected.

ffective. i think you are onto something. i'm not sure what the answer is whether it is from the issues in the election or the political environment. i don't know for 2010. that is a great question. ask me next september. question over here? >> there was something in your slide that i was struck with. i think it was a stimulus bang. there were benefits to the stimulus over tax cuts. what do you do in the event that you have an issue where there really are tangible benefits but people are against because they do not necessarily understand it. >> that is a good question. can you run a campaign and try to convince people they really have received benefits?

that is a top education campaign. i am not sure i would try to undertake that if obama cannot do it at the top of the ticket, i am not sure what success you will have in running an individual campaign in a media market where people are not paying that much attention. >> i feel like the republicans did that in 1980. fdr did that in 1932. >> did what? >> a change the dialogue on economic policies. >> 1980 was a wrong track election. when voters are ready for change -- the difficulty in the obama administration is in the fact that they ran a terrific campaign but they believe that was an endorsement of everything they are pushing for. it was more of a rejection of

republicans and george w. bush. you see that now when you see some of these policy numbers. you have a tendency to overreach, people do. the over-interpret the results of an election and what it means to the next election. you have to ratchet it back a little bit and not push it to corporafar. >> since you have been through the 2006 and 2000 elections and to see the parallels between those previous elections and is one and the numbers look very similar now, what differences do you say? do you see this going down the same path as what happened to republicans will happen to democrats? >> i think it is different. it is different because you have 10 months before the election. we saw a lot going on in 1994.

2006 and 2008, we knew what would happen in 1994, we did not really know there was going to be that much of a sweep into the last couple of months of the election. there is much more time. democrats are in control of the government. things can happen that would make people believe the country is headed in the right direction. time is one thing, the amount of money the democrats have and the warning they have to change their campaigns and readjust what they are doing. in my point of view, if this were a british form of government and i had control of the government, if i were a republican, i would call elections for next month. i want them as soon as i can. i would take a band of this anbar because i do not know what the rest of the year will hold. -- i would take advantage of this because i do not know what the rest of the year will hold. things happen in political campaigns that could change dramatically the mood of the

election. that is what we did our stuff in bright colors. who knows what will happen tomorrow? if this environment hold, the republicans will have a good year. that is anybody's guess. night you very much remember one thing -- you have an opportunity in the next couple of weeks to absorb a ton of information that will help you in the summer and fall and the rest of your lives in terms of this being the career goals you want to strive for for the fact that you are here, you are unusual. not many people choose to take the week between christmas and new year's and a week after new year's to eliminate yourself on campaign politics and what this is all about. thank you for being here. even if you disagree with me politically, i am proud that the

industry has drawn such bright young talented people to a vote -- to a class like this. >> thank you very much. [applause] we have about a 10 minute break. make sure that you give your cards with your name and contact information to crest parade will be back at 11:15 with senate races. c-span3 c-span[captioning perfoy national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2009] [no audio]

>> cspan thursday -- a look back at tribute paid to u.s. and world leaders including the dali lama, ted kennedy, ronald reagan, walter cronkite, colin powell, and robert byrd. new year's day, a look at what is ahead for the new year. the russian prime minister vladimir putin discusses his future from its annual call-in program. presidential adviser austan goolsbee on the global economy, the creator of the segue on innovation and entrepreneurship. plus, the art of political cartooning. fox news contributor is our guest this weekend on book tv's "in depth. "\

that is three hours sunday law that noon eastern on book tv. >> coming up on "washington journal" we will take your questions and comments and later tonight, interviews with supreme court justice anthony kennedy and samuel alito. this morning, a discussion on how the u.s. should respond to the latest attempted terrorist attack on board a northwest airlines flight with a representative from the heritage foundation. then we will talk about infectious diseases with an update on