caller: good morning, sir. i have been led to believe that with tankers, boeing is the only bidder. can you expand on that and let us know what is happening with the tanker program? guest: last i heard it would be re-bid. but since then the north has pulled out. boineing has the upper hand as n american manufacturer but there has been interest in re- submitting. host: george wilson, thank you for joining us this morning. that will wrap it up for this morning's "washington journal." we will be back tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. eastern for your comments and calls.

see you then. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2010] ♪ . . >> the house returns tomorrow at 2:00 eastern on boats on several non-controversial measures. a couple of items is we authorizing science and technology programs, another extend tax credits and unemployment benefits.

see the house live on c-span. more hearings on the response to the gulf of mexico oil spill today at the senate homeland security committee. this is homeland security secretary general of peloton up. live coverage starts at 2:30 eastern, on c-span. campaign rallies for candidates running in pennsylvania's 12 congressional senate race. first, johnstown, pa., and then a rally for republicans in washington, pa. pretty special election is for the remaining term of the late representative john murtha who passed away earlier this year purdue can see both these events tonight starting at 8:00 eastern, on c- span. supreme court elena kagan is meeting with senators in advance of her process.

read more in cspan's book. we provide unique insight about the court available in hardcover and also as an e-book. on saturday, president obama honor the 116 law enforcement officers killed in the line of duty last year. from the annual national peace officers memorial service outside the u.s. capitol, this is about 35 minutes.

>> we pay tribute to our fallen heroes. we comfort those present day to help us see your greatness and corporate me your loved radiate through us and every family and renew their strength and mount you up on the wings like eagles. may god be gracious to you and bless you and make his face shone upon you and all peoples preview, amen. please, be seated. brothers and sisters, law enforcement families, friends, and dignitaries, it is indeed my honor and privilege to welcome you to the 29th annual national peace officers memorial service. i would like to begin this afternoon, actually morning now, introducing our keynote

speaker, the president of the united states, barack obama. [applause] from his first days in office, he made his commitment to law enforcement and public safety very clear. he moved quickly to get desperately needed funding for our state and local department to retain and hired new law enforcement officers at a time when overseas deployment work leading to reduced numbers of employment in cash-strapped departments. we were laying off police officers. president obama led the charge to secure more than $4 billion in federal funds for local and state law-enforcement agencies. his past two budgets should be renewed commitment of the federal government to our nation's most successful anticrime programs. most notably, the hiring program administered by the office of community oriented policing services.

two days ago, this administration sent a letter to congressional leaders asking for an additional $2 billion to be used by state and local government for law enforcement at -- officers and firefighters. president obama and his administration have been and continue to be remarkably open with the fop and has received our input and support for many of his importance posts. he has demonstrated a genuine willingness to be a partner and a champion for the rank-and-file officers. brothers and sisters, our survivor families, distinguished guests, please help me welcome the president of united states, barack obama. [applause] >> thank you. thank you, very much. thank you for that warm

introduction. beckham for your outstanding leadership as national president of the fraternal order of police. i also want to commend that the entire paternal order of police and all of its leaders and all the work you do on behalf of america's pull peace officers. -- peace officers. to the survivors of fallen law- enforcement officers, our hearts go out to you for your loss. the husbands and wives, mothers and fathers we lost, protect us all. all americans are grateful for the lives that they gave in line of duty. to the active duty law enforcement officers who traveled all over the country to be here, let me simply say thank

you. thank you for the service your rendering to our nation and thank you for the sacrifices you are making on behalf of our people. every day in america, families go about their lives, they wake up, sit down for breakfast, send their kids off to school and they had on to the office or an aunt of the factory floor and they return home ready to do it again in the morning. we often take for granted the cycle of life. we know that chance can change everything overnight. we also rely on a certain order in our lives, certain sense of security that lets us sleep sleepily in our bed and walk around our necks of its free from fear to go about our daily lives without being the victims of crime. that sense of security does not, the tone. what makes it possible, what

makes 3 impossible, are the law enforcement officers we honor today. men and women like so many of you. anyone who has every put on a uniform or one a bed in the name of law, in the name of order, in the name of protecting and defending the united states of america. what led you to live such a lead tech what leads a person to put on that uniform or wear the badge or enter the law enforcement profession? part of the, of course, is a responsibility to provide for our wives and husbands and give our children and grandchildren a better life. for some, there is also a family legacy to honor, a proud inheritance, and of a cert may aspire to uphold. there's also another reason. there's a higher calling.

it let the men and women we honor today, like so many of you, to become peace officers. it is a call to serve our neighbors, serve our neighborhoods, a calling to live a life and service of others. it is recalling that carries immense risk. you don't know what dangers you will confront each time you put on that uniform or step outside in plain clothes. whether you're a beat patrolman or erode deputy, you don't know what the next dispatch will bring. all you know is your duty. it keeps us say, to keep our community say, to keep america safe. it is duty you fulfill every single day. today, we honor americans who lost their lives in pursuit of that duty. , in pursuit of that calling. we honor a traffic sgt, 17-year

veteran of oakland's police department, a big teddy bear, his friends called him, who loved his buckeyes and steelers. he was the kind of guy you could always count on to do the right thing. he was killed march 21, 2009 during a traffic stop on macarthur boulevard. he leaves behind his wife and three children. we honor a deputy, six-year veteran of the county sheriff's office in florida. he was big part of and he wants delayed serving a minor warrant until sunday so the defendant, a father of six, could earn one more day's pay for his family. on april 25, 2009, he was killed attempting to arrest a domestic assault suspect they tracked down. he is survived by his wife and five children.

we honor trooper joshua miller, a veteran of the pennsylvania state police and the united states marine corps. he was a troopers trooper. the only thing he looked more than stopping truckdrivers and hunting was spending time with his wife and their three daughters. his face lit up when you mention to them. he was killed on june 7, 2009 during an operation that ultimately rescued a 9-year-old boy who had been kidnapped by his father. we honor these americans and the to the law enforcement officers who lost their lives in the line of duty last year. each is love, it dismissed, each is among america's finest. these men and women joined nearly 19,000 americans who have made such a sacrifice since the deputy isaac smith was shot in 1792. such a sacrifice, such an honor

roll is what makes it possible for us to go on about our lives, to pursue our dreams, and enjoy america's freedoms. it is an honor roll and reagan's don't not far from here at the national law enforcement officers memorial. it guards over the park with memories americans more lies there. there are four bronze lions. each one is a verse from the book of proverbs i impart you as a prayer. the wicked flee when no man pursuitth but the righteous are as bold as a lion. make cuts face shine upon the lives of those or lost. make you watch over the ones that guard us still. me blessed now and forever the united states of america. -- may keep less, now and forever, the united states of america. [applause]

[no audio] [no audio]

[bapipes] ♪ [god bless america]

[marines corbattle hymn of the ] [no audio]

>> we want to thank the president of united states for his inspiring words. i hope they brought you comfort. i would like to take an opportunity to introduce a few of our distinguished guests who joined me in welcoming the president earlier today. beginning on my right, we have the representative of one of our most audible corporate partners, the chief financial officer of miller corps. thank you. [applause] earlier today, he accepted the president's award on behalf of miller, the fourth award given by the fop and we are happy you could join us today. this is a distinct pleasure to introduce a special guest, the incredibly talented leann

womack. all of us are looking forward to performance and a little while. [applause] i would also like to welcome tommy myttola. he has attended many of these events and was one among -- and was among the first sponsors of this event. thank you for coming. [applause] you may be seated. everybody, be seated please. president harry truman, commenting on the state of the country at the end of the second world war said," this is the power to rededicate ourselves to the fate of mankind that makes us strong." these words are true to the law enforcement community every year. as we come together to show our respect, our adulation, and their support for our brothers and sisters who have laid their

lives on the line for all of us and pay the billed price for protecting our great nation. we come here to washington, d.c. every year and we come to rededicate ourselves to the most humble of our duties. that is to continue the promise that we will never forget the sacrifices. will never forsake the families of our heroes and we will never allow the citizens of our nation to forget the law enforcement community. thus, like them, desire a safe place to raise our families. we are willing to do whatever it takes to fulfill the american dream. at this 29th memorial service, we are honoring one of the lowest numbers of volunteers in many years. but any year that we are forced to come here and read the names of even a single law enforcement officer, that is one too many. the officers we are here to

honor to they come from all over the country, townships, small cities, large cities. some wore badges, some more stars, but they all wore honor in their hearts. they chose to do a job that would never make them rich, would cause them physical ailments, and, in most cases, they worked overtime and side just to provide for their families. they all did so with the knowledge that their jobs or honorable and indispensable. words can never truly express what law-enforcement family must endure when tragedy strikes. only those who have suffered the loss of a father, a mother, a brother, a sister, a child, or a co-worker will ever know the sacrifices we must all make. that is why we opposed this annual service and that is why we have and will continue to dedicate ourselves to making sure that our nation will never

forget the heroes we honor today. president ronald reagan once said," this country was founded and built with people with great dreams and the courage to take great risk." the words "or risk great risk" e words that officers do not talk about and i always say they did what they had to do. they are usually embarrassed by all the accolades and not understand what the big deal is. they did their jobs. my friends, the big deal that as humans, we are supposed to flee danger and not run towards it. when citizens hear about these sections, they know it takes a special breed to fight major and run toward trouble. it is our hope that all americans will rededicate themselves to keeping our country strong and we will never

forget those heroes that allow them to follow their dreams. god bless you, the families of our fallen brothers and sisters. may god bless our law enforcement community and may god bless our troops who fight every day for our freedom and protection overseas. thank you very much. [applause] is my honor to introduce leann womack. ♪

time to put your arms around a 100-year-old tree. take look around from 30,000 feet. against the morning sun, close your eyes and look at everyone. look at the raindrop on your tongue. there is a god. there is a god. @6there is a god.

how much proof do you need? the seed is what comes out of the ground. i often think about what you don't understand. like how the world began. it is like a cancer but the cancer is gone. there is a god. there is a god. there is a god.

how much proved do you need? -- a much proof do you need? this whole world as an accident? if you want to shoot that theory down, just look around. there is a god. there is a god. there is a god.

how much proof do you need? ooohhh, there is a god. there is a god. there is a god. how much proof do you need? ♪ [applause] >> thank you. i would now like to ask beverly crump of the fop auxiliary for

opening statements to this service. >> members of congress, brothers and sisters of law enforcement, and honored guests, welcome to the 29th annual fraternal order of police memorial service. i name is beverly crump and i am the national president of the fraternal order of police auxiliaries. on this special occasion, we gathered to honor and pay tribute for the supreme sacrifice of these men and women of law enforcement made. with valor and devotion, our country's law enforcement officers stand watch, fulfilling their duties with courage and commitment. putting a themselves in harm's way, working tirelessly, exemplifying their commitment to justice.

fighting crime, violence, and terrorism for their communities and our country. from the first service held here 29 years ago, the fraternal order /3:33lice and auxiliary continues to harbor the responsibility to make this service special for moms and dads, husbands and wives, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters who are here to honor these brave public servants who have given the supreme sacrifice. 25 years ago, i attended my first peace officers memorial service. each year, there is a list of new names of heroes in our program. we make changes to this service but the one thing that never changes is the part in the heart of those in attendance because of the price that their loved ones paid. we learn your stories of how

your officer died. see your pain and your your crying. we see the many co-workers who, along with you, are trying to cope without the loved one who made this trip necessary. webster defines the hero as a person who in the opinion of others has distinguished courage and has performed a heroic act. searching google, i find there are over 1000 websites that qualify a hero. i, personally, have selected these five essential qualities. service, conviction, selflessness, bravery, and sacrifice. these qualities, i believe, to be the powerful character traits of those that we honor here today. each of you wearing a name badge or ribbon identifies you

as a surviving family member or co-worker, trying to accept that life must go on. you are surrounded here today by thousands who share in your brief. most importantly, we offer support to you and your family. when an officer dies, the message rings out across the nation that we have lost one of our own. officers from many states will arrive with an immediate taken their hearts. they have never met your officer, but the thin blue line of law enforcement and extends across this united states, supporting, offering prayers, and reaching out to our law enforcement families. strangers will line the streets waving flags, holding posters, thanking them for what they did. law enforcement is a respected profession. when an officer dies, thousands mourned the loss of those who chose to serve and protect.

i share with you a poem by an unknown author and title," our finest." not let the cops and robbers on a prime tv show more like the sheriff and the old wild west who would face and shoot his fellow, the officers who guard our streets are mortal as we all who choose to work for a greater good and in their work stand tall. they stand a hedge against the forces that seek to hurt and killed each day they risk body and mind, their duties to fulfil. when the dreaded call goes out that one of them is down, with loyalty and amazing speed, the fraternity will gather round. they protect us from ourselves. they protect us from each other. no finer service can be performed bantustan and arms way or another.

it is impossible for us to understand the loss to have supper. we hope you will feel the love and prayers being offered as we gather today, national peace officers memorial day, to honor your loved ones. our fraternal order of police of bill ramallah reads, "never let them walk alone." i believe that hope survives, love prevails, tears clans, and members comfort. representing auxiliaries everywhere, our hope is that each of you this week and today the open arms of the fraternal order of police and auxiliary for the supreme sacrifice paid by your loved ones. may god bless you, god bless our military men and women serving, and god bless each of you who will continue to serve our law enforcement. thank you. [applause]

>> joining us on stage is a detective from the maine police department. [applause] ♪ >> i am steering at the door.

the realization of their sacrifice so we bring this humble prayer to his need. out of all those lives, the most -- most i've never met. why they gave their lives, i soon won't forget. when we see a folded flag and the pipes began to play, we hear god's amazing grace. so, we lean on the fallen. because they stood for honor and

truth. they may be gone, but not forgotten. they are living in me and you. so, we lean on the fallen. yeah, we lean on a voluntar and the fallen. i think of all the friends and families left behind. some feel proud, some wonder why. all we can do is stand up and carry on, remembered how they lived instead of how they died.

well, i have never been to st. peter's gate. i guess you hear the voice of god. but those candles raised up like no others 18eyou are standing near heavenn our eyes. so, we lean on the fallen. because they stood for our honor and truth. they may be gone, but not forgotten. where they are living in me and you. so, we lean on the fallen.

yeah, we lean on the fallen. learn from mistakes made in the past. each time we go to work may be our last. and last days and graveyard shifts are fine sight. s. that is until i go on to sleep at night may those heroes live forever through you and i, because we all hold on. for all the times you stood watch, though you never knew,

know that god is always watching over you. yeah, god is always watching over you. and so we lean on the fallen. because they stood for our honor and truth. they may be gone but not forgotten. but they are living in a menu. -- me and you. we lean on the falling. en. yeah, we lean on the fallen ♪

[applause] >> on capitol hill, the senate returns at 2:00 p.m. eastern. one hour later, they continue work on a financial regulations built. several amendments are expected at 5:30 eastern. majority leader harry reid is expected to file a motion to limit debate on that bill. if it passes, the final passage vote could come this week. you can see the senate lot of our companion network, cspan 2. the house returns tomorrow at 2:00 eastern.. there will be a couple of bills this week including 13

authorizing science and technology programs and another extending tax credits and unemployment benefits. see the house live on c-span. more hearings on the response to the gulf of mexico oil spill today as the senate, and security committee hears from secretary janet napolitano and the bp american president. live coverage starts at 2:30 this afternoon here on c-span. tonight, campaign rallies for candidates running in pennsylvania's 12th congressional senate race. a democrat with president clinton and johnstown, pa. will be followed by the republican rally with scott brown of massachusetts. they are in washington, pennsylvania. this special election is for the remaining term of the late john murtha of who passed away earlier this year. you can see both of these events at 8:00 tonight on c-span.

mexican president felipe a cold front arrives in washington on wednesday. he will go to a state dinner. we will have coverage starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern on cspan 3. he will address a joint meeting of congress on thursday. there will be live coverage on cspan started at 10:00 a.m. some key issues he will discuss with the drug trafficking, border security, and the state of mexico's economy from the woodrow wilson center. this is about an hour and a half. >> this is a combination of

other high-level visits. president obama has been twice to mexico during his administration. we have seen secretary clinton and many others go to mexico on a number of occasions as well as a number of mexican officials here. this is an intense time for my early on security issues but there are a number of issues like migration which are hot- button issues in both countries. there are issues of competitiveness that tie the two countries together. there are questions of renewable energy and a great deal on trucking disputes and many things that could be on the agenda and a new focus how to manage the border. state visits aren't opportunity to focus. they focus the administration to both countries but a also a chance to focus us who are interested in u.s.-mexico relations. it is a great opportunity.

we have been working very hard with a number of colleagues i number of projects. on monday, a want to highlight a project on u.s.-mexico security operations. this should be interesting for anyone following this issue. there is a paper on renewable energy that just came out. it will eventually come out as a bulletin. there was something published

on immigrant participation. there is also a fact book coming out and mexico and u.s.-mexico relations. that should be out next week there are a lot things that may be useful for those of you who follow mexico. there is a book out there called "mexico's democratic challenges." and a number of scholars have contributed to this. let me to introduce our panelists. our first panelist has written a book. i said it was somewhat a

satirical history of mexican politics is one of the most grievous things i have seen. i think you took this from the mexican cartooning heritage. she is a creative analyst and won the national journalism prize in mexico. congratulations on that. she is a person prolific as a scholar and intellectual and someone who moves for debates in mexico. we also have the mexican council on competitiveness. i think he is one of the new voices in mexico. he is one of those voices you will hear more and more from overtime pool as been active on the project on transparency, municipal finance, as well as in finances in general. he has been doing work to make

public finances more accessible and transparent and more accessible. we also have a writer who had an article out on foreign affairs on u.s.-mexico security issues. she has a book that will be coming out, in a while, don't look for it yet. that will look at where mexico is today and were mexico and the united states are today that i think you will find interesting and important we have a fellow from. the woodrow wilson center. he has been a prolific author and scholar on mexico and has been doing some of the best work out there on rule of law issues. he has a fantastic book on modern mexican politics.

we're proud to have him here at the wilson center and as a colleague on our joint project on u.s.-mexico security issues. tell us about where mexico is today. what is the mexico that is the partner of the united states, the mexico -- what has happened to political reform? what has happened to the military and society? >> too frequently, attention in the united states is focused and exclusively on the war on drugs, organized crime, and the violence as a pet has accompanied it to the detriment of a sustained analysis of mexico's domestic politics and domestic political economy. i would like to focus on the trends that will be key to understanding mexico's future that go beyond the drugs and

organized crime agenda. for the next three years, mexico will be a country where everything is determined by the forthcoming presidential election. that will be key. the second half of the calderon, because he faces elections in 2012, the last three years of his term will be focused on repainting the presidency and the context of declining political fortunes of his party. if you look at the polls today, the former ruling party is positioned to regain control of the political system. the current governor of the state of mexico is the front runner in most of the polls and the pri is in position to win 10 of the 12 governorships that are

up in july. in the context of increg insecurity and drug trafficking and violence and the perception that the mexican state is failing to address those issues successfully, i think there is a nostalgic for rule and order, for experience for the people who really knew how to do things. the pri is marketing itself as precisely that sort of party.

they are building, as i speak, a coalition, i think a successful political coalition that includes the oligarchs, union leaders, the corporate structure, what remains of it that is still very strong and the vested interests, firmly entrenched, in the country's economic structure. the politics of extraction have become a characteristic sign of mexico's political economy. this coalition that continues in mexico is still fuelled by oil. we are witnessing the re- emergence of the pri and i view

this as a potential political repression that can also be explained by the collapse of the mexican left. i think the prd bears enormous responsibility for this outcome because if you look at the polls, many of those who have left prd have joined the ranks of the pri there has been no effective counterweight. the possibility of creating a coalition to bridge the two has not been possible. there are questions about the legitimacy about philippe de calderon's government. the collapse of the left cannot be explained by the pri returning without being reformed. why is calderon returning

without the left -- rest of his government? if you look at the polls, people appreciate the fact that he is at least waiting this war, even though it is not affected. his party, time and again, is being punished at the polls for a widespread perception of what we call in mexico, the air administration of inertia. despite the fact that some reforms have passed, and reform, fiscal reform, pension reform, these minimalist reforms that we could argue are right steps in the right direction, have proven to be sued -- too small in terms of creating a dynamic, a market economy, creating jobs, and raising the ties that could lift all boats.

this has not been the case. we large extent, it has not been the case because the national action party has failed to take on the old regime. the national action party has accommodated to the traditional institutional framework. it happens a local level where they have suffered the greatest defeat in the past couple of years. you can see a great deal of questions posed to them for acting as the pri did when they came into power. they are acting and the same corporatist climate that the pri it for some many years. there is disappointment with the democratic process. there is disappointment with the national action party. felipe calderon's war on drugs

is not strong enough to translate into political gains for his party. he was not forceful enough in his first three years to push reforms that would have made the political system more representative and accountable for that would have made the economic system much more competitive. what is he trying to do now? i think he views the midterms, the past midterms as a wake-up call and now you see him try to push for a series of reforms that he did not advocate during his first three years. he is trying to position himself as the reformist that he wasn't in his first three years. in or to present the reformist face to the electorate while at the same time trying to smoke out the pri or put them into a corner where they have to adopt a public position on reforms

that the president is advocating such as reelection, a citizen candidacy, and anti monopoly agenda. i say these reforms are necessary and important. i celebrate them because they have been on the agenda of many democracy and citizen-led group for many years. mexico has an electoral democracy that basically amounts to the rotation. it still has to become more representative and accountablecalderon has finally made this agenda is part of the problem is that these reforms in the context of divided government and a lame duck presidency, because of the by the congress, have less than zero chance of being enacted. while the president is to be commended for the reforms he is adopted, at the same time, it is

pretty clear that these reforms will not be passed in the remainder of his administration. that is because they would need the support of the pri. they have a majority in congress with the green party. they wanted to, they could enact these reforms on their own without the support of the national action party. i would argue that that will not be the case. that is because of the interest of the pri coalition and because they believe that they do not have to modernize themselves or to enact these reforms in order to come back into power. they think it is enough to position themselves as the party of position, security, of continuity and continue to advocate or to prop up the patronage-driven machine that is leading to its electoral

victories at the state and local level. what does this mean for mexico in the next three years? it means an electorally-driven agenda. it means mexico continues to muddle through politically and economically. you will not see dramatic, aggressive reforms passed. you are probably going to witness, unless something dramatic happens, the re- emergence, the resurrection of the pri as a party that is at the door effort only 12 years since mexico experienced a transition to electoral democracy. >> thank you. do you coincide or differ? where is mexico? >> i mostly coincide. i have a different approach. we have several mexicos.

in mexico city, they have a different experience than different towns. it is totally different in different parts of the country. mexico is becoming a real federal country that each region is having a very distinct problems as a whole. this contrast gives me a pessimist/optimistic view of the country pretty pessimistic view is that while it is based on the news we have had in the past months of years around the wars on drugs, there are things happening that would be unbelievable just a few years back. city like monterey -- a city like monterey, things have happened like to the streets

being bought -- blocked by gangs. they have organized crime there. that was something unimaginable in mexico a few years ago. there are different levels of government and how they coped with the threat is based source of pessimism. for optimism, i see a very strong movement of civil society in mexico that i have not seen before in several regards. for example, in mexico, we did not have collective action as a legal system. we did not have the possibility of consumers organizing to protect their rights. through organizations that were born in civil society by the leadership of some cities, they are starting to push in congress the idea of having a collective

action past as a lot. it actually happened last year. in the last midterm election in 2009, we saw a huge movement promoting the fact that no candidate was good enough for the expectation of the peoples. they told people to go to the polls but to cancel their boat. ir vote. the smoke and was highly criticized but in mexico city, it got 10% of the vote. it was the fourth largest political force in mexico city. . .

in themes what we are seeing is a collapse of the federal system in mexico. our federal system of security is not working. we have the municipal police facing, becoming like the first line in the war against organized crime. and i want you, for a few seconds, just to walk in the shoes of our municipal policeman in mexico. the mafia and the drug dealers know where your family lives, where your children go to school. the daily routes you take from your home to your job. and then one day they come and say if you did not work with us and if you do not receive this amount of money we're going to

give you, you are going to pay a very high price. so i stayed the way our institutions for security are organized are not aligned with him and incentives. they do not respond to a human nature. a lot of people in the room, at least myself, i am sure i would start incorporating with the drug lords and my family is threatened. if we have institutions that do not work with human nature, we have a problem. so we're putting these people and giving them their small salaries and asking them to become heroes or martyrs in this war against organized crime. so the whole structure of the system is not working, and i am worried that the lack of urgency of the mexican political parties and mexican congressmen

as to how they are addressing these issues. nobody wants to be the elephant in the room. it took three years for the mexican government to address the fact that municipal policemen are becoming corrupt and penetratinare penetrated bya gangs and are actually working with them. the way the mexicans are taxpayers in financing the kind of bodyguards of the drug lords in nuevo leone and other areas, because through our taxes we are paying these policemen who are being forced to work with them or their threatens. and the system keeps on going. few governors have addressed the issue in the current distribution of the federal responsibilities regarding national security. these things cannot go on. one of the biggest criticisms we

could make to president calderon regarding organized crime is not that he started it. maybe when it began in 2006, he did not have any other alternatives. but the initiatives have not gone with that. and institutional criticism or how the responsibilities are distributed and how this should change in the long term to create a new and stable system of security in mexico. so there has not been applied and institutional response which would be the long-term, how we would see the minister poll police, state police, and federal police i intend to 20 years. that is a lack of institutional change, and it is also a source of worry. regarding the fact that the the

pri is coming back, that is feasible. if we see the last presidential elections in mexico, in 1994, there was an attempted assassination. there was a man to be president, but he could not reach the presidency because he was killed. in 2000, they said that the pri would win the presidency, as it had been won for the last 70 years. but then the center people came. and the person did did not reach the presidency. in 2006, almost 14 consecutive months watching the top of the pulse and the next man to become president. now we see the same position from six years ago. so he might become president. that would be the most feasible. happen.

but with the constant in mexican presidential politics for the last 20 years is that unexpected things happen. it is not necessarily of fact that he will win the election. and the image that the pri wants to portray the efficiency is that they know how to govern, and i think it could be highly? if we see the state with the highest levels of violence, which are basically to what, in the early on, and these states that are governed by the pri governors. i wonder, just the fact that the new party or if the pri comes back to power, that it will be the first step towards a solution. i think it will be very questionable. they know how to govern, and i

think this perception does not address the fact that the whole country has changed a lot in the last 20 years. at the mexico that does what is governed by the pri during the 20th century is not there anymore. maybe it still exists in some regions, some states. but as a nation, our institutions are different. our society is different. it would be a huge challenge for the pri to try to adapt to these new circumstances as they start the government in 2012. my source of optimism is in society. my source of pessimism is in political institutions. thank you. >> tell us a little bit about -- give us your optimism and pessimism with next week. do we expect anything unexpected next week in the summit between president calderon and president obama? >> if you think back

historically the last 20 years and mexican president visits to the u.s., there often characterized by ambitious agendas. you think about it salinas in the early 1990's and on the agenda was nafta. or when fox came here in 2001, on the agenda was comprehensive immigration reform right before september 11. this agenda for this next week will not be as ambitious as those. in part for optimistic reasons and in part for pessimistic reasons. the biggest issue today between the u.s. and mexico has been security issues. one reason why this is not an ambitious agenda is because the u.s. and mexico have been working quite well for now almost three years together on this agenda. this will be more of a touching base and pushing forward small cuts -- concrete forms. in the u.s. and mexico bilateral agenda, it has been developing. it started in the bush

administration. in the obama administration, we have seen a transformation of the direction of the initiative, and it is going forward. moving from a much more military focus to one that includes and to student -- institution building in getting into socioeconomic factors underlying violence and the border. a little under two months ago, we saw a host of high-level u.s. officials, led by hillary clinton, go to mexico city to try to get through this new agenda. some of it has already been done. rather in washington, it was done in mexico city a couple months ago. at this meeting, we will see ratification by the two presidents and some fleshing out of a few details in particular programs that happened in the last two months. an issue that could be on the agenda and probably should be that would be quite ambitious but will not be talked about most likely next week is north american competitiveness and where that goes.

you know, obama and the state of the union put forth that he wanted to double exports over the next five years, which is quite ambitious. but in order to do that, mexico and really north america would have to be part of the equation. i mean, you talk to many private sector companies, big ones that are in mexico and other places, companies like intel or caterpillar, and the way that they are able to produce competitively in the united states has much to do with the ties that have in canada and the ties that have to the united states. if they did not a part of their plants in mexico or canada, then they put a mine in china or brazil or other places. when they are in mexico, they are able to bring imports of the united states, or in cuts, and taken to mexico and bring them back here to send to other markets. when they are in brazil, they do not have inputs to the united states. some might have jobs out of the

u.s., but also saves thousands of jobs because some and puts are coming from the united states to mexico. it is an integration that happens which does not happen in other parts of the world. for the benefit of mexico and also for the benefit of the u.s. and its export growth, this issue north american competitiveness should be on the agenda. unfortunately, i do not think we will hear people talk about those big issues. we will hear about smaller issues, perhaps trucking issues. some other border issues. but not a big ambitious agenda, thinking about the medium to long term for the u.s. and for mexico. we will see, on the agenda, most likely immigration. now this, as no, is a quite difficult issue in the u.s. is polarizing. it is also a difficult issue in mexico. but particularly because the law recently passed in arizona, president calderon almost must mention it and really put it forcefully on the agenda to play

to his own home audience. if he goes back to mexico without mentioning what happened in arizona and how the mexicans feel about it, it will be difficult for him to come back home. that said, it is a very difficult, on the u.s. side particularly, in his speech to congress to push too hard a mexican point of view of how unjust the think this law is. as we all know, immigration politics in the u.s. is quite polarized. president calderon and president obama by all accounts agree on this law in arizona in that neither are in favor of this. but how that works its way to the u.s. system is not seen as much of a foreign-policy issue but a domestic policy issue. immigration will be talked about, but there will not be resolution coming out of this. in the final issue that will be on the agenda that is perhaps the most positive one or a new one to be put on the agenda is the issue of climate change. we have right now two presidents

president calderon, president and president obama, who are quite interested personally in issues of climate change, alternative energies, and green technologies. we also have a situation where mexico is going to be the next coast of the u.n. conference of parties process. mexico, particularly cancun, will be the next copenhagen coming up in december of the next following year. so for felipe calderon, it is very important that cancun be seen as important in the discipline that something comes out of this meeting with global leaders coming together aren't the u.n. process. to do that, at the u.s. has to be on board in some way, shape, are formed. in part because mexico is so close but also because of the u.s. is out the table, many of the agreements like kyoto and others, began to fall apart. so where can tune goes from copenhagen and what the u.s. can put on the table will be part of

the discussion. most likely what we will see out of this is a focus on small, concrete programs. i do not think anyone in the international system things we will see a treaty with legally binding emissions targets put forth in six months in cancun. but there are some areas for mexico in the u.s., and other countries could work together to flex out of what we saw the company to an accord, was to have been there. particularly on the financing mechanism for adaptation. how developed countries, and even large emerging economies like mexico, china, brazil, and india, how they're going to work with the least developed countries to mitigate some of the effects of climate change and transfer the money that was promised in copenhagen. how that will work is and then that perhaps we will see the two presidents and their staff talks through. but overall, this will be meeting of referring the status quo, reaffirming some of the progress made on a lot of debate

issues, but not one with a big ambitious agenda. >> before turning to david, i should mention cindy is with us and ambassador babbitt as well. what is on the agenda? are they getting it right on the security strategy? will there be anything different? they will surely be looking for what has been a large number of drug-related homicides to be going down in the near future. they should be looking at the development of a modern police and judiciary force in new mexico -- in mexico. some efforts on all arms flows and money from the u.s. in new strategies from the white house on drug consumption in the united states. what is out there but on the securities at and beyond security that might be new and different, and are they on the right path? >> well, first of all, thank you, andrew, and to the wilson

center for hosting this event. it has been a great pleasure to be here. i have especially enjoyed working with and through on a variety of projects. munley take that one step back. we have heard different estimates about sort of whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about where mexico is and where the u.s.-mexico relationship is heading. to talk about that in context a little bit, pessimism looms large in the discussion. certainly some of the things we have not mentioned. u.s. public perceptions of mexico are at an all-time low since nafta began. the public image -- the image that the public sees of mexico, the assessments of mexico as a security and trade partner are

actually despondently low. we have also got very difficult and contract a bowl issues on the bilateral agenda, like immigration and things we have not mentioned such as trucking. mexico would like to see nafta move to a different level where we can have free flows of not only commerce but also trucks and labor going across the border. in terms of mexico specifically, there are a number of very difficult, unresolved issues that my colleagues have pointed to. i think while security has loomed largest in the u.s. mind about mexico's current situation, for ordinary mexicans, cents felipe calderon was elected in 2006, the issue has been consistently the problem of the economy. and specifically, the fact that

still today, 40% of mack it -- mexicans live in poverty. by party, i mean earnings typically less than $5 a day. -- by poverty, i mean our earnings typically less than $5 a day. also, the issue of equality. so many mexicans live in dire circumstances. but mexico is also home to one of the world's richest -- actually, it's the world's richest man. carlos slim. the reason he is so rich is because mexico has an extremely and competitive domestic economy. add on top of all of this the cherry, the idea that in in 2012 we are going to see a pre-a victory. and for people who have championed mexican democracy and who have concerns about whether

or not the the pri has changed its ways, and there are significant signs that it is still very much the same party it was 10 years ago and before, all of this adds up to a half or three-quarters empty glass. but i think we also need to take into consideration the other side. first of all, while the u.s. public may not receive it, u.s.- mexican relations are at an all- time high on several different indicators. in terms of levels of security cooperation, the simple extent or inattentiveness of engagement by the u.s. -- between the u.s. and mexico is at a significant high. unfortunately for mexico and the united states, on problematic issues, thorny issues like the

situation in arizona, the obama administration and the calderón administration strongly agree about that particular issue. also, thinking about mexico's problems, thinking about its economic situation, it is very easy to be dissatisfied. but the reality is mexico is in a very different place than it was 10 years ago or specially burr was 15 and 20 years ago. mexico is seemingly the valuation proof. not that they are free from the evaluations, but a very significant devaluation at the pace we saw last year was not even a major blip on most people's radar screens and on ordinary mexicans pocketbooks. that said net -- that suggests their fundamental changes in mexico's macroeconomic picture, which are ultimately quite

positive. add to that the fact that in the last decade we have seen mexico's gdp per capita, in terms of purchasing power, actually increase to what economists like to see as a critical watershed, which is the jet thousand dollars a year marked. some of that could just be because carlos some amicable good days on the stock market. -- which is the $10,000 a year mark. it does suggest that veins are not entirely bad. and it is easy, as the gringo, to have that gringo's eye view. when you're not amerced in these problems, when you are not the one earning less than bob dollars a day, it is easy to be sanguine about these issues. -- when you're the one who earns less than $5 a day, it is easy to be sanguine about these issues.

it is hard to realize that for some people. there is no going back to 1988 when we saw mexico's last great fraudulent election, when we saw mexico suffering triple digit inflation, when we saw many people very dissatisfied. mexico is now in a very different situation, and our relationship with mexico is different as a result. shannon mentioned that we have moved to this new framework for u.s.-mexico relations, this new security framework which focuses on dismantling on these four colors. the idea of dismantling drug- trafficking networks. actually, we have had some significant success of the last decade. we have taken out the top leaders of a least four -- 3 of the four major drug-trafficking organizations in mexico. we have taken up high-ranking members of the afo.

we have taken out someone who is now a resident of the united states. not to his liking necessarily. and we will soon be welcoming a new resident, amario villanueva, who is soon to be extradited. the mexican government has recently taken out an important collaborator a cartel and the recent collaborator of the juarez cartel. not to mention collaborations with the la familia and some other regional thugs. that lends to the calderón administration -- >> there are rumors that one of these people's lives may have been arrested.

it's unconfirmed. >> that is correct. who knows whether what was wanted or not. the administration's goal, the administration's measure of success, at the calderón administration's measure of success in the u.s. measure of success, has been on this point. that is seen as a measure of success. i will get back to that. the other two issues are building an effective judicial sector institutions. here again, mexico has made significant progress. it may not look like it. but the fact that we're actually identify corruption in law enforcement in mexico, the fact that we're actually talking about trying to strengthen municipal police, the effect of these issues are on the agenda and that there are significant reforms in place that will move mexico to a more effective judicial system i think are important.

the third pillar is this idea of building a 21st century border. i doubt that the 21st century was supposed to be the border this century -- i thought the the 21st century was supposed to be the borderless century. i guess i was reading the wrong things. but we want to prevent illicit flows, stop southbound flows of u.s. weapons and arms and to mexico. i think this is obviously something that the united states and mexico have to work on together, but it misses the real point, which is that when we're talking about cross-border trans-border problems, we need solutions. we need to focus on a point of sale or the point of origin. we're talking about the hiring of undocumented workers. or we're talking about the selling of weapons. we need to be focused on where those transactions take place. if they get to the border, it is already too late to address those problems effectively. the last point is this idea of

building strong and resilient communities. this is a true innovation in u.s.-mexican security innovations. it's on to the agenda the idea of strengthening civil society, and some measure of job creation or creating economic opportunities so that the young people today who are involved in illicit activities, he did not really have any other options because maybe in some places as many as a third of people aged 18 to 30 neither work nor study in school. so they are idle hands. the idea of speaking with mexico about how we can promote a greater degree of prosperity and opportunity, a greater degree of pleasant this is exciting and important. but by far, i should say we're far from pigs -- advancing that

agenda significantly. a needs to be much more strongly put on the table. i do have some ideas about the measures of success, a double and with this. it is great to make lows against organized crime. that is what the administration's have been advocating. the problem with making significant lows against organized crime is it leads consistently and historic leap over the last century to one predictable result. and that is more violence and more death says the cartels fight among and within their organizations to reestablish order. this year alone, we have seen almost 3800 drug-trafficking- related killings in mexico. that is on par to well exceed the 6500 killings that we had, at least 6500 killings that we had in 2009. in other words, we could be looking at maybe 8000, which is a significant increase, by the

end of 2010. for the mexican public, you can arrest all the bad guys you want, but as long as people are dying by the hour in this war on drugs, it is not going to be popular. lastly, for me, ultimately, i mean, why are we doing this? we're doing this because theoretically we want to reduce the availability, the flow, availability, and consumption of drugs in the united states. how was with that working for you? to quote sarah palin. it does not appear that we have made a great deal of success. if you look at the data, we are approaching a majority of american voters, that is people aged 18 or over, you have experimented s at least as some point in their lives with the use of drugs. that is abominable. that is not acceptable. it is an insult to mexico that we are not able to control consumption.

this week the obama administration's said we're going to try to get a handle on that over the next five years. not many people would say that it is a game changing allocation of resources. and so in the meantime, as we look around the country and see states like california going in completely the opposite direction, possibly voting to legalize consumption of certain drugs, it really makes you scratch your head and say, what is all of this for? >> we want to open this up to the audience, but let me go back to each of you for one-minute responses on points that you have made. what does calderón need out of this visit next week? what does he want to take back? >> he wants american validation for the war on drugs. he wants a big pat on the back. he wants recognition for his boldness, his bravery, his

willingness to take on organized crime at a time in which the war on drugs is increasingly unpopular in his own country. where midway through his term, his main policy initiative is being questioned by many mexicans as the polls reveal, at a time in which it is not clear that the war on drugs is actually reducing the violence or, rather, fuelling it at a time in which his party faces increasing political competition and has not faired well. so i think felipe calderon is coming here with the hope that once president obama embraces him and says all the right things in terms of applauding what he has done over the past three years, he can carry that back to mexico and bolster his political legitimacy in a context in which he is, in many

ways, a lame duck, a weak president who has very little to offer the mexican public in what remains of his term. so i think he comes here on a quest for validation, for ratification, and for political capital. >> what does president obama and the obama administration need out of next week's meeting? how much of it is domestic politics? >> exactly, the obama administration first and foremost needs it to go well and not to mess up the domestic agenda too much. the need to not get too deep into the weeds on immigration issues. they can agree that the arizona law is a terrible law and is hurtful to the united states and to mexico. that can happen. but they need to make sure calderón visiting and talking about immigration, for instance, does not hurt them in trying to

think about and put forth on the agenda, whether before the elections are probably after the general elections, on immigration reform. when they turned to issues of climate change, they need president calderon to at least recognize that there is a bill on the table that came out this week. potentially there is a chance for the passing. and to play along with that, even that looks very unlikely that that will pass, given the polarization in the lead to the midterm elections. they've been mexico to play along on that side. but in some ways, they need to pat calderón on the bag because they have invested in security. they have taken on the bush initiative and have expanded its in the the ways we talked about. they need to validate that this is the way forward with mexico. and in general by being seen together and talking about things in a quite positive way, that it is worth this investment in security. and the security broadly defined

with socioeconomic factors and with the 21st century border in there. they need to get out of it that this is a good investment for the united states that should continue. many people in the obama administration want to do this. many people in congress are less sure about whether this is a good investment of u.s. money and resources. >> david, you hinted at this at the end. you raised questions about the strategy. tell us, what would be, and this is a preliminary view of the report, what would be the right strategy? we're likely with a door the next two years locked in policy in some way? how do they get this right? >> well, if this is the idea of getting drug trafficking under control and ultimately

preventing access for drugs for u.s. consumers, you have four possibilities. there are four strategies to dealing with the black market and drugs in north america and worldwide really. one is complicity or what mexico calls the idea of simply working with the traffickers, accepting their distance and taking the occasional bribe. that is the way drug trafficking in the u.s.-mexico context works for many years with very high ranking officials on the mexican side, and no small number recently of low-level u.s. officials, border patrol agents, and others getting snared up in this kind of thing. the second approach is to do a head-on fight against the cartels. that has been the strategy for almost the last decade. with the idea of dismantling organized crime.

some call that the hydra strategy. you cut the head off of one organization and a new one grows back. so they're serious questions about how effective that can be. there, you can try to reduce consumption, and unless you're willing to put a very serious resources and to that effort, it is dubious how much you can decrease the availability of drugs and therefore decrease the profits that drug trafficking organizations have. 15% reduction in youth conception of drugs, as the obama administration recently proposed, is not going to take a lot of money out of the pockets of the richest drug trafficker in mexico. so the last option, which no one has wanted to talk about for 40 or 100 years or so, is the idea

of trying to regulate consumption in some kind of legalized scenario. i think that whether the and ministrations like it or not or whether it is in tune with the majority of the american public, which opposes the idea of drug legalization right now, i think we're on that path of legalization in the sense the states and localities are beginning to explore legal options for people to consume, whether it is the dozen or so states that allow for legal consumption of marijuana for medical reasons or states like california that are flat broke in just need some extra tax revenue from a little bit of pot sales. whatever the reason is, i think that we're seeing a shift. when the united states can elect a person who is an open, admitted drug user, not only did he inhale,but he also snorted, i

think that suggests a sea change in the way the american public looks at jerk consumption. >> before we open up to the audience, i want to go back to the issues we started off with. this is a legacy time for calderón. what can he do in the last two years that would leave a legacy, and is he willing to do those things? >> well, a joke once in an article that so far the biggest legacy that president calderón has, he is the president teaches us how to move with the inside part -- to cough with the inside part of our elbow. >> during the swine flu episode. >> i think there is a huge problem with his legacy. the most important decision, economic and policy why is he

has taken, was against this company. there is the utility company that provides electricity with mexico city and surrounding areas. and we got the nafta up from salinas. we might have conflicting memories of the character, but he left something for the mexican people to remember him by. fox at least not obstruct the creation of the national

transparency institute, which would be the legacy of calderón. and what did i do wrong that you asked me such a difficult question? [laughter] >> ok, let's open it up to your questions. this is for viewers watching on the videocast as well as on c- span. on may 24, we will be launching the paper on renewable energy, and we will have joe as a commentator on that day. let me start with joe. let's do three questions, and then we will come back to the panel. >> i am in political economist, senior associate at the center for strategic and international studies. andrew, i am awfully glad that you asked shannon the question you did about the domestic considerations in this country as to what will happen at the summit. this is really a political

commentary. just as the mexican and president must play to his constituency in regard to immigration, i think the u.s. president must play to his current constituency in respect to immigration. senate majority leader harry reid has fouled things up on a comprehensive energy and climate change legislation by announcing that he would push immigration legislation this year. and as a result, this is inside the beltway, i guess, but lindsay gramm, the one republican supporter of the climate change legislation, announced that he would drop off. i think the president obama has established a habit of making grand promises, which he sometimes felt constrained to keep. this is pure speculation, but i think a lot will depend on how the news media, the major news

media, play, not just the statement but the news conference that is held. and washington post, new york times, and the wall street journal may force president obama to say something that he would rather not say about pushing immigration. it depends a lot, i am afraid to say, on whether or not is a slow news day on may 19 and may 20. >> sure. >> i wanted to pursue juan's misery in talking about calderón's potential legacy. i remember in this country in the 1994 disastrous midterm election for the quinn administration. i remember a lot of people saying about president clinton, he did not do anything big. he was always giving press conferences, talking to things like school uniforms or some mechanisms for creating stability in others -- in underserved communities, the kind of thing.

somebody on the panel, give us a list of those kinds of things to which the mexican population would respond. because the u.s. population responded to president clinton's miniature initiatives positively in the end and reelected him resoundingly. >> let me add to that question. is there any chance that his signature effort, which has been dealing with organized crime -- i mean, three years from now we will look back and say there were some real gains on judicial reform, and police reform. the counter intuitive. right now, we're all pessimistic. the three years from now, is it possible to look back and say that is the real legacy? that's good to the gentleman down here. >> this is a question for denise. marcos, from centra -- [unintelligible] if you does ago, there was an

article in the "new york times" about the different middle-class is in mexico, and he mentioned that 40% of those who live under the poverty line, and that is like 50 million people. 75% of those of 40% believe that they actually belong to middle- class. in this context, one of the biggest challenges, from my perspective, in terms of mexico's political system is how to break up -- so why would you

say, -- what would you say about why these people, why these 50 million people living under the poverty line still believe they're living differently? what is your perspective on that? thank you. >> before close this round, but go to the doctor in front. >> shannon mentioned in passing, i am from the brookings institution, she mentioned in passing that trucking issue. and yet, a specific decision which our two presidents could make next week is a timetable for lifting the prohibition against mexican truck drivers driving in the united states. we're not in compliance with our agreement under the naphtha by

prohibiting and retaliation against -- i guess would be crotons on fruits and vegetables. it has hurt particularly california. the engagement on that issue of trucking would be a substantive step. i would like your opinion. >> let's go down the line with quick responses. then we will have time for one more round. >> the problem with the legacy is that those issues are quite unpopular. for example, breaking the news to mexicans that oil is going down because it is the news that the mexican public does not want to hear. they do not want to hear that in the rest of the world, private companies could extract oil in the matter if it remains in the hands of the mexican government and the nation.

but it could be a company different from pemex. that is not something the mexican public is really willing to accept as tax reform. so the most relevant reforms will hurt politically the president. the sad part of it is that we do not have the reforms, and already it is having a hard time in order to be reelected in 2012. i want to make the point that i did not mention before. i would blame of the responsibility of the failure of reforms on calderón. i think he has faced a very an irresponsible opposition. there is an open debate on how bad the pri was that governing, as in power. but i think it is clear that

there has been a lack of creativity and interested, even opposition, and just from a foreigner. in view, as a mexican, i was appalled of the criticism against president obama during his first year in government, saying he has not achieved anything. well, he was not allowed to achieve anything by the interest of the opposition. so we still have not addressed the issue that reforms will happen if the government managed to have a decent opposition with a view of changing the country, but if the opposition is just concerned of winning the next election and which issues will favor their candidate, that the country would not change. >> i think calderón's legacy is going to depend on whether the national action party is capable of retaining the presidency in

2012. icalderón will be viewed as a failed president, as someone who, after 12 years of rule, was not able to fundamentally change the country in a way that created a broad constituency for reform. however, if his party wins, and that could happen. i mean, in my initial comments, i give you a photograph of mexico today. that photograph could change as the campaigns of golevolve, as e are debates. we talked about democracy being the institutional is asian of uncertainty. in that sense, mexico is an electoral democracy. we cannot foresee the next president will be. but the trend today in terms of

the dominates at the state level, who has the resources, the majority of gun nerve -- governorship, the capacity to mobilize the electorate in order to win the presidency casts t, t without a question i think today is the pri. however, the good can it runs a good race. the others fall apart. there is a scandal. his party is once again divided. and they win, then calderón will be credited for maintaining that stability and filling the ranks of the middle class. he will be commended for taking on drug-traffickers and organized crime. he will be commended for the beginning of an anti-monopoly agenda by dismantling a monopoly. he will be commended for taking initial steps on education reform. he will be viewed as a reformist, a reformer who could

not go as far as he wanted to because of the institutional constraints. but that is contingent on the results of the next presidential race. in regards -- >> [unintelligible] >> no, and will make up that today. if i lose, you can come back and secure me. -- i will make a bet today. the mexican left has no possibility of winning the next presidential election. i think it is a shame that the left has self imploded because mexico needs a functional, an effective counterweight. and it needs a functional left that can negotiate in congress. i think we would have witnessed a very different sort of presidency had philippe

calderone had a prd to negotiate with an performed a reformist coalition with. it is interesting to see that the reforms he puts forward are supported by the left, but i think it is too little and too late because the pri is now in control of so many of the key levers including its majority in congress. in response to your question, thomas friedman is article talked about the three constituencies in mexico today. the no's have been winning. who was talking about when he alludes to that? he is talking about the veto centers who do not want mexico to change. when david was presenting an optimistic portrayal of mexico, at one point i thought, he's not talking about my country. he is talking about the place that we would all like to live in, but not about the country

that i have seen move sideways over the past 12 years. yes, perhaps in some senses, we have not moved backwards, but we have not moved forward significantly either. particularly in terms of our potential of what the country needs and what our competitors have been doing with their last 12 years. >> i would actually disagree with you want this, of that is ok, which is i think mexico has actually moved ahead, but it has moved ahead so far below its potential that it is frustrating for those -- i have a foreigner live in mexico and they see that per-capita income has gone up and there's a democratic senate. there are a lot of good things to talk about. but for those in mexico to inspire and no one mexico could be, it is moved so slowly that it is agonizing. >> i think that mexico is a more open economy. it is a more competitive place politically. that is certainly true.

it is not a safer or more equitable society. when you have -- what has been the economic growth in mexico over the past 15 years? it has been 1.5% a year. that with the demographic characteristics that we have is a leading to economic stagnation. and i think that that has produced a country that is, in response to your question, divided. i remembered ginger thompson's article right before the 2006 presidential race. there was a photograph. actually two photographs side- by-side. in one photograph, it was all of the lower middle class public dwellings that had been created under fox, where there was a huge public housing boom.

all the people who lived inside those places were going to vote for calderón because they had become stakeholders. of macroeconomic stability, of nafta, of the economic gains that mexico has witnessed over the past 12 years. next to those were the slums, the slums that you see outside of any mexican city. all the people in the slums were going to vote for the other person. what you have in mexico today is a stalemate, eight still made of the no's and the nafta's. 40% of the population calls itself middle class because it is a beneficiary of many reforms we have witnessed over the past 12 years. but the rest of the country is willing to go out and vote for an anti institutional populist politician because those gains

are not sufficient. so we have seen mexico move sideways, and moving sideways in many ways, in this global economy today means flowing back. it also means it is very difficult for whoever has a reformist agenda to win. the constituency is not large enough. and they no's, when i say that have been winning, who of my talking about? union leaders, monopolists, even party leaders. we talk about mexican democracy. but to what extent is this a fully functional representative democracy when there is no real action. it is said that mexican democracy is like a green dog. un perro verde. it is too exotic. why? because it lacks some of the fundamental traits that any functional democracy would need

to be truly accountable and representative, including real actions, candidacy, term limits. at the same time, it has all of the elements that may get exotic, such as a prohibition on reelection, such as a very little management over public spending. parties that are the wealthiest in the world will receive $300 million in public financing. but zero accountability because there's no re-election. yes, i know this ultimately becomes a discussion of the glass half full in the glass half empty. but if the glass half full, how would you explain an election as you saw in 2006? where people took to the streets for over four months precisely because we have a country of nafta's, mexico from the

mediums and the country of have- nots. without economic growth, the stalemate continues and mexico becomes a fertile ground for any sort of populist, and i- institutional politician who goes against the status quo because it does not work for half of the country. or mexico becomes a fertile ground for political repression via the pri that is appealing to the country as it was before. because at least there was stability. there was not as much of violence. the was a patronage ridden mission and gave things to people lived with their hands outstretched. -- there was a patronage machine gave things to people who needed it. there was a stalemate in the electoral results that we are seeing, which i think are not good for mexico's political prospects in the future. >> thank you.

we're actually at 10:30 a.m., but we're going to take a couple minutes to wrap up. david. >> well, i will take on the calderón legacy issue. for one thing, the great thing is that night -- even though she disagrees with me, i agree with most of what denise has to say. i do not know how that works. but i completely agree that it depends very much on what happens. there is still a chance that they could win. something could happen to cripple hemline some significant way. but as i would say, every election has been, since the pri was born, it the the pri's election to lose. the last two elections, the cannot agree to get along. i think that is largely why they lost, more so than perhaps we might like to believe. so assuming the pri does win, i

think we may look back and see president calderon as the man who to mexico to war against itself and lost. and as a result, lost the presidency, a man who neglected his initial promises when he took office to be the jobs of president but who instead became the war on drugs president. that said, i want to talk briefly about the secret to being an optimist and the secret to thinking about mexico as a place we would like it to be. i think the secret to being an optimist is to have low expectations and a long time horizon. mexico has and will continue to make progress in the long run. unfortunately, no idea list can ever really appreciate that or be an optimist because in the long run, we're all dead. long run, we're all dead.