and john avlon of "the daily beast" will talk about independent voters. this is "washington journal." [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2010] host: we continue our conversations this morning about the 2010 midterm elections now just five days away. this morning we will look at the major senate and gubernatorial races as well as the role of independent race -- voters. but we want to start off talking about the issue and i want to hear from you, what issues are driving you to the polls. the numbers are on your screen --

again, what issues are motivating you to vote in the 2010 midterm elections? this is for voters specifically, people who are going to be going to the polls. and you can send an e-mail, journal@c-span.org or send day tweet. this is from "the wall street journal" this morning. polls show men leaning heavily republican this year. democrats try to spur women and left leaning people to vote using social issues. it is unclear whether the push toward social issues can make up the advantage republicans have on economic topics.

across the board democrats are losing support from many groups that strongly backed the party in 2008 and in 2006, but the campaign down bomb -- are bombarding the no voters about social issues. targeted phone calls and direct mail. this is in "the wall street journal." it goes on to say --

that is a little bit from the "wall street journal" article this morning. and "the washington times" as noted in the previous article, in the colorado race, economy versus abortion is the headline. linda, republican line. what is getting you out to the polls, linda? >> good morning. actually, and i hope you'll let me say what i want to say. it is not a specific issue. it is being a citizen of our country. this is how i raise my son when he was growing up. he is growing now. i told him, you know, unless you are under anesthesia or six or

incapacitated, and you vote. it is what we do. it is like getting up and brushing our teeth and eating three meals a day. it is not optional. and being a citizen of the united states. therefore there is no specific issue getting me to the polls. certainly there are issues that i am very interested in, but i think that is where a lot of our problems come, in having the low voter turnout. host: had ever missed an election? the guest: -- at caller: i have not. host: local legend, too? caller: and i think those are more important, really. host: what is the issue for you getting to -- you to the polls? caller: i am always thinking about the economy, making sure we have more jobs, which i don't think either party has done so far.

i think our political system really is not helping because they are more concerned about what the receive that what is going right for the country. since that is not really an issue, i think i am voting against the tea party. they really scare me. you have guys like ken buck in, rather who openly said he does not like the separation of church and state and sharron angle who said racist things. she even said that she has been mistaken as the first asian legislator. you have people think that kind of thing, it is scary. and who have that world view. host: so the economy is number one in your book but you are voting on social issues, is that a correct statement? caller: yes, i think i am doing that simply because no one is talking about the economy the way it really needs to be talked about. and i do believe that just because the tea party are saying these really strange things -- i

mean, sitting at home is never an option in any election. host: another democrat from chicago. caller: yes, i am voting because what i see and hear from bob wright. they are just extreme. host: what is the issue? caller: my main issue is the outsourcing of white-collar jobs by our children who are four- year degree jobs. i was googling on the internet, and i was googling job is outsourced to india. i was just floored. host: another republican -- chris, gaithersburg, maryland, here in the suburbs. caller: what is getting me out to vote is the steps the left is trying to take this country toward socialism. i can't believe how the country

has changed. host: give a specific issue to relate to that. caller: basically destroying the private industry -- everybody -- there are 41 million people getting food stamps. welfare, this is worse than when bill clinton first got in. it is unbelievable. it has taken people to where they are sitting on their hands. everybody who is an investor that i know is sitting on their money, putting it in treasury bills. not investing in the economy at all. host: from "the hill" the midterm poll, likely voters throw a wrench in gop budget plans. but then did a conundrum for gop leaders next year. -- presenting a conundrum. they don't want budget cut at

the expense of big social programs or defense. 71 percent of likely republican voters in 10 house that of ron districts the said congress should cut spending even if it means fewer earmarks, and likely independent voters think the same but the same poll found republicans and independentss think the jury prospect of cutting programs that constitute a larger portion of the federal budget, a majority of republicans, 57%, as well as 65% of independents said that are not willing to accept cuts to social security and medicaid to trim the deficit. ray, independent line from charlotte, north carolina. what is the issue for you? caller: i just think, like, one of the ladies said it earlier, some of be more republican, the issues are just a little bit more radical. the issues for me is health care.

it is obvious that, look, obama has tried to do things like give incentives to the private sector, to the businesses, so they can hire more people. basically give tax breaks and giving money to hire people -- they have not been hiring people. this is a tactic -- this is a tactic to stop the democrats -- i mean, if you leave it up to the private sector to hire jobs, they are not going to do it. they will discriminate and higher when they want and how they want. that is what they are doing. host: judy, scottsdale, arizona. republican. caller: i live in arizona and i am very disappointed in president obama. i think he has divided people by class, race, he has given the

go-ahead for l.a. to sue arizona. our borders are not secured, to not believe all of the bs from janet napolitano. there is so much crime in the phoenix area on the borders. host: immigration issues? democrat absolutely. and the way obama divide the country by class, race, gives l.a. the ok to boycott phoenix. host: for midterm voters, this is an article from "the new york times." more than 1300 american service members have lost their lives there. the u.s. has spent over $300 billion on average so far. yet polling suggests that the war in afghanistan is barely a blip on the voters raters as the midterm elections approach.

given the condition of the economy and high unemployment rate, the fact that most americans largely cite these problems as the nation's top issues is not surprising. what is surprising is that hardly any americans cite the war in afghanistan at all. in a recent new york times/cbs news poll conducted last september, 60% of americans said that the economy or jobs were the most important problems facing the country. it a mere 3 percent mentioned afghanistan or the war. west leg, ohio. a democrat, you are on the air. caller: i agree with the woman who says she always goes out to vote. the first thing is the national level, and i think it is very important that we not go back to the republicans because they got us into this mess, the financial situation. and i am afraid that they will take regulations off that have

just been put on -- the supervision of banks and wall street. on a local level, we need to reelect gov. strickland because he is an education governor and the republican legislature has defied the ohio supreme court at least four times by not putting in reforms for raising money for education. host: john in dumfries, virginia. republican. caller: the issue for me is the growth of government. i have worked for the government for about 16 years. some of it was part time at dod, so i was working at the private sector at the same time. there are some things that you need government to do and there are other things with government does. in my experience, the government is knocked the best mechanism to

manage a lot of different things. it is a huge bureaucracy and it slows things down and you get people into power and even if they are good people they end up getting a little bit corrupted and the system could be more efficient. that generally is the direction. i am not a libertarian. we need to have a government and there are things that has to do. host: from "politico," boehner looks to longworth.

this is from "politico" this morning. leroy, south carolina. good morning. go ahead. caller: doing good, how are you doing? host: i'm good. caller: yes, sir. host: what is the issue? caller: my issue is i just feel like president obama has been doing a pretty good. the issue is really -- you know. host: we will try this again. you have to turn down the volume, otherwise you will get the feedback and stops the show. eric in brooklyn, independent.

caller: good morning. thank you for c-span. i just one of the echo of the voice of the first caller. the issue that to bring every citizen to vote is it is your duty to vote and if people don't vote, that is why we have all lee's left-right crazy problems because none of the people vote and people get taken advantage of and the message gets diluted and you have extremes on the left and right. >> is there a specific issue that motivates you? caller: it is your duty as a citizen to vote. that is the issue. i live in brooklyn. i know pretty much who is going to get elected. because it is a consistent democrat majority here. but that doesn't matter to me. if it was a hot race or a cold breeze, i would still be out there voting because it is my duty as a citizen to vote.

host: cocochef tweets in -- from "the hill" newspaper this morning, republicans aren't in the mood for compromise especially on repealing health care reform. john boehner said on wednesday -- distance himself from the senior senator suggestion last week that trying to repeal the new health care reform law was not in the republicans' best interest. "this is not a time for compromise, and i can tell you that we will not compromise on our principles, what boehner said during an appearance on conservative sean hannity's radio show. leroy, are you there? we will move on to harrisburg, pennsylvania. caller: the issue for me is the

economy. and i really don't know how we will turn it around when 20% of our wealth last year was made on shuffling paper on wall street. and the corporations are waiting for republicans to get back in because they are afraid of tax policy. other than that, i would like to make a comment on the fellow that step of the girl's head in kentucky. i am a 57-year-old ex-marine, not like i was when i was 25 but i would like to meet that guy in a bar somewhere. host: republican line, what is getting you out? caller: to get our country strong again and getting us to compete in of global markets. host: economic issues? caller: absolutely, and economic issues. we need to be able to compete. host: what policy would you recommend? caller: policy? not really sure.

host: midway, georgia. independent line. caller: i would like to know why people think the republicans are so good when all they have done a -- they sat on the unemployment bill for five weeks while they went on vacation. let people put their kids to bed hungry, get evicted from their homes. they sat on that -- everything that is been proposed. help the economy and produce jobs -- the republicans have either filibustered, sat on or in some way distorted it. host: bill, is it fair to say that what motivates you to the polls is an anti-republican vote? caller: you got that. and i had been born and raised a republican. host: rick, republican line, middletown, new york. what is your issue? caller: i always vote.

i saw ron paul -- he was the start of the national tea party. and conway, alerting his brother about a drug raid. that is a disgrace. host: rick, once again, what is going to motivate you to go to the polls in middletown, new york? caller: get rid of the correction. -- corruption. you have to look at the real reason for the tea party, it was the ron paul revolution, not coopted by the republicans or democrats. host: the house may gain a lone black republican. if election night goes his way, as many expect, tim scott from south carolina will be a figure washington has not seen in decades, a black republican in congress.

that is in "the chicago tribune" this morning. democrat, what is the issue getting you to the polls. caller: what president obama is trying to do. to help everybody, not just blacks. all the negative ads, the negative talk. i feel they need to pray. host: from "the new york post" this morning, the joke is on

obama. this is about the jon stewart appearance on "the daily show." he revived his signature is slogan from the campaign -- but it is not going to happen overnight. this is just a little bit from last night's appearance. >> i know a lot of folks feel frustrated about congress, how it operates, the bickering, the weird rules, the filibuster's, all of that stuff but the fact is there are a bunch of folks who, during the course of this year, took really tough votes that they knew were bad politics because they thought they were the right things to do. [applause] there are a whole bunch of democrats -- guys like tom

pieriello in va or betsy markey in colorado were basically in republican districts, they won in the big surge we had in 2008. they knew it was going to be a tough battle. that these are generally pretty conservative districts. and yet still went ahead and did what they thought was right. and my hope in this election is that people will vote on the basis of what they think is right and have integrity and are not just thinking about the next election but thinking about the next generation, that they are rewarded. host: a couple of e-mails --

pennsylvania. fred, independent line. what is getting you out to the balls -- polls? caller: i am voting to get rid of all incumbents, career politicians. a big problem, it does not change. for 40 years, the same old story. republicans did this, they get in, democrats do this. people and about the same spoiled recipe. we need an overhaul. host: from the front page of " the politico" this morning, representative charles rangel is headed into a november 15 ethics trial with no lawyers, little money and a risky strategy that may turn this trial into a political showdown rather than a legal face-off, according to sources close to the democrat.

allentown, pennsylvania. brian, republican line. good morning. caller: the reason i am going on tuesday, other than it is my duty, is that i agree with the last caller, more of an anti- incumbent thing. i am kind of tired of the politicians getting in and just going along with the party line continually. it is as if nobody has their own mind. they promised this and then you go win and you look at their voting record and a vote straight democratic if they are democrat or straight republican

if you are republican. they are not doing necessarily what is best for their constituency but what is best for their party. host: kansas city, missouri. anthony, a democrat. caller: how are you doing? my problem and what has got me going out to vote tuesday is hypocrisy and the inability to get anything done in washington. what i mean by hypocrisy is, you have democrats and republican politicians who are against health care but if i am not wrong -- correct me -- doesn't tax dollars, our tax dollars pay for their health care? on the hypocrisy side, it is ok for these lifetime career politicians to say these things that health care is going to work, but their health care is already there for them. what did they have to worry about? and the people who don't have health care or whatever, need to get out and vote. the reason i vote is i am

arkansas-american, not african -- i'm a black man. i love this country. this is the best country in the world. host: the next call comes from mexico. linda, good morning. caller: one of the main reasons that i think i am going out to vote especially this year is because i hear so many people's opinions about things and they don't seem to have come to that opinion by using their brain power. it is like they hear a remark and a grab onto it and they call into c-span and it is like, they are just regurgitating something and it scares me that some of these people go out to vote. maybe my vote will not count except maybe to counsel -- counter. i don't think people are thinking through things and looking at all sides and saying, i don't know for sure about all that.

let me look into that. i think that may be why i am voting this year. host: from "politico" for dems, times might get tougher. next call comes from strasbourg, pennsylvania. ruth, a democrat. are you with us? we will move on to biloxi. what gets you to the polls? caller: i am voting against the

incumbents. i think any income that has had plenty of time to be part of the solution and they are part of the problem. the congressmen and senators vote themselves a raise. most folks are out of work. i think we need new blood in congress and maybe they can cooperate in get something done. host: "-- this is from "roll call."

there is another article in "roll call," right below that. the rich get richer in the senate. the millionaires' club becoming a little crowded. based on financial disclosure forms filed in 2010. then in "roll call" there is a chart of all the senators and

with their net worth. the wealthiest remains john kerry. let's find him -- he was here just a minute ago. $188 million. that is a "roll call" this morning. new hope, ky. mary. caller: i am a great fan of this program, and i wanted to say that i don't think there is enough thought being put into how we allow our youngest, most vulnerable children to be killed before they are born. i dread thinking what will happen when the majority of people realize what this is. host: so, abortion is the issue that gets you to vote? caller: absolutely. host: douglas -- seattle, democrat.

caller: first of all, i am black, young. all the young people need to get out and vote. second, the reason i'm getting out there is because i looked at all that is going around, the tea party. i was not around in the 1960's, i was not born, but it has the traces of the same energy. have you seen sharron angle? have you seen mitch mcconnell? these people are talking a whole bunch of craziness and nobody wants to pay attention. host: the next call comes from phoenix -- gregory on the independent line. good morning. caller: how are you doing? i am going to be working the polls for one thing, and i am intrigued how the republican party has been hijacked. the tea party said they will be independent but it looks like they are taking over the republican party. i am wondering how the republicans and still hold their heads up. it seems of the novelty of going back to '50's and the novelty of a black president has worn out. some americans don't even want

to sit next to a black person to this day and they have a black president is killing them. i really think that we need to look at ourselves and wonder what is really motivating us. that is all i have to say. host: madison, indiana. betty, republican. caller: good morning. i would just like to say that i am a senior and the seniors in our area are very upset over the fact that our congressman did not see fit to vote us a raise for the past two years. that is why i am getting out and voting. i think they have done as an injustice as far as that is concerned. host: you need the social security no cola? caller: yes. we were not given a raise last year and said we are not getting one this year, but our medicare is going up this year -- this coming year, and this following year. and i also think it is a very

sad situation when they can't think upon taking care of the seniors who paid veritas is all of these past years, and they don't even think of that -- who paid their taxes all of these past years. they are thinking of the younger generation who are just paying in and it will not be there and would -- the way congress is going now. host: mary, democrat. kansas city, missouri. what is the issue? caller: the reason i am coming out is the republicans have stated what their intentions are. they plan on not doing anything for the next two years to bring down president obama. that means they are not going to work out -- on anything, jobs or anything else. that is getting me out to vote. i don't want them in there. if they are not going to do anything, we don't have a need for them be in there.

i hope everyone gets out and boats because they are not giving the president obama a chance -- i hope everybody gets out and vote. host: "the wall street journal" lead editorial. there they went again. this is the conclusion of their quite long editorial this morning.

that's "the wall street journal" lead editorial this morning. and on their front page, foes plan post both deals. politicians debating -- taxes and spending the most the discussion to the right, putting pressure on democrats and the

white house. this article goes on a half page in the jump in "the wall street journal." tennessee -- bill is not there anymore. we will move on to buffalo, michael, independent line. caller: good morning to you.

when i go out there in the morning to vote, i am specifically going to find someone who has no direct agenda -- no agenda at all with lobbyists or anything like that. the kind of politician who has a real hit them in the mouth kind of mentality to get things done. host: what do you mean by that? caller: everywhere i seem to go, all i hear is everything about lobbyists, lobbyists -- we will not put lobbyists and the party and stuff like that but there is all i seem to see. obama said it how many times and how many lobbyists as he put in there? he said he will not work with them. host: west virginia. john, independent line. what is the issue that gets you to the polls? caller: the fact that we voted these guys in that in there now, and every time they vote in congress they vote against what the people want them to vote for.

we put them in there to vote for us, and every time, around here in our state, they bolted against us. host: you are calling on the independent line. who are you voting for in the senate race? caller: i am still not sure. it is not going to be manchin because i do know he will vote for whatever the president tells him to. i will not know until tuesday, to tell you the truth. host: new hampshire. maryland, republican line. caller: good morning. my vote is -- i have a particular bill where i have three issues, not one. the first is for obamacare -- although almost two-thirds of the people said they were not interested by poll after poll after poll, the government did what they wanted to do and did not care what the people wanted.

and this is a country that is for we the people, so i thought that was definitely done wrong there. the second thing is, for the very first time, the government is mandating that under certain conditions people have to spend their money to buy what they may not want to buy. this, to me, is a very critical thing that has to be undone as soon as possible. and the third thing is that misses pelosi stood there and said we can't read the bill, it is too big. we will have to pass it before you can find out what is in it. these reasons all hinged on one bill but they are critical. each one individually. that is why i am voting republican. we have to get these people out of there. host: i am motivated to vote to prevent our country from going the way of greece, tweets

joseph nolan. what is getting you out to vote? caller: actually, the constitution but i remember the 800 signing statements of president george bush. i remember it illegal wire tapping and torturing that went on and you could not get me to vote for a republican if he was at my house and willing to give me a million dollars. i will definitely be voting democratic. host: from "the wall street journal," health lot unpopular in a key house districts.

cleveland, republican line. you're on the air. what is the issue? caller: i am going out to the polls -- i have never been politically inclined but i am going that we need to keep this country intact for our grandchildren. the democrats are saying over and over that making money is

american. i want to tell them something, making money is the most american thing we have done. entrepreneurship is what built this country, not entitlements. i also want to tell the ladies that thought we did not get the social security raise because of congress -- it is because social security is based on our -- our cola is based on inflation and we are now in a deflationary economy. i want to thank c-span very much. i love you guys. host: pittsburgh -- debra on the independent line. what is the issue that gets you out to vote? caller: the issue that gets me out to vote is the constitution. i believe in representative government. i don't feel i am being represented. i feel thinking people have been vilified and ignored. i am a registered democrat and also a supporter of the tea party. the health care bill is an absolute travesty and also the rising debt.

basically using communist socialist rhetoric to vilify anyone who is paying attention. host: from "the washington post" this morning -- sorry about the call, not the cause.

fremont, nebraska. chad on the democrats' line. what is the issue that will get you out to vote? caller: i am interested in finding anyone interested in shedding down the porn industry in the united states. host: new york. benny, a republican. how are you doing? caller: i am doing good. what is going to bring me out to the polls to vote this tuesday -- let's see, the simple fact that we borrowed money from china in the stimulus package that we have. and it is for projects that were dug in. one project in particular was over $17.5 million, it went to renovate franklin delano roosevelt museum in hyde park, new york. the news company did a news

story on that, and there is something on youtube going back to march of 2009. fdr-stimulus port 09 -- pork 09. host: it is spending issues? caller: we spend the money and borrowed it from china and who owes that money back to china? it is going to be you, yes, your children, yes, your children's children, yes. host: from the front page of "the washington post," majority on edge about that next payment.

memphis, what is the issue that will get you out to the polls, willie? caller: giving thanks to the one to came before me. host: thank you for calling in this morning. "usa today" lead editorial. talking about the wikileaks..

something on the order of 100,000 iraqi civilians were slaughtered, overwhelmingly by other iraqis, as sectarian violence on into full-scale civil war.

that is part of "usa today" lead editorial. coming up next, we are going to concentrate on the senate races with jennifer duffy of the cook political report. >> c-span's local content vehicles are travelling the country visiting congressional districts to look at the most closely contested house races in this year's midterm elections. >> you have the republicans looking to get back into office. here is one seat that they lost in 2008. if they want to get back the majority back -- democrats also want to hold on to that majority. this is one of the seats that both sides say this is our seed. but you can make all the promises you want -- lower taxes, balance the budget, you can promise to bring our troops home safely and honorably soon,

but when you are handed a check -- keys to government, it is about choices of what choices we will make as a nation to move our country forward, working to help of middle-class families toward prosperity. >> [inaudible] you know you are winning with the other side starts attacking so hard that you can watch tv or listen to the radio anymore. >> there are lemmings and then used car millionaire jim renacc i, who tried to avoid paying taxes. but he is trying to raise yours with a 23% national sales tax on almost everything you buy -- food, gas, even medicine, hitting the middle-class hard. out for himself, not us. democratic congressional campaign committee response will for the contents.

>> our incumbent is the democrat , thebucheri, -- john bucheri who won the seat in 2008. for more than 30 years it was a republican district. looking to unseat him is republican jim renacci, former businessman, former mayor of the city of wadsworth. the 16th district is kind of a unique district. the candidate has to be balanced. he has to be able to understand the needs of a heavily urban population, but also a rural population. one of the things you will find is the republicans in advertising and speeches, they are in a way attempting to juxtaposed john bochieri with nancy pelosi. if you hear an advertisement for the republican party, you will

hear the the democrat voted for nafta -- with nancy pelosi 96 percent of the time. >> congressman john bocheri, he says is independent but what is his real boss? first was against president obama's health care reform, but wind speaker pelosi needed the vote, he did it. he voted with nancy pelosi. and nancy pelosi can count on john bocceri. what about us? >> the republicans are trying to tap into the fact that people are unhappy with some of those votes, like health care. and i think the economy. no matter where you will go in the 16th district you will find a lot of unemployment.

it is a heavy manufacturing area. we lost a lot of the blue-collar jobs over the last 10 or 20 years. if you go to ashland, canton, wadsworth -- a lot of and people need jobs. this year they are going to try to find a candidate who will help get the job is to turn the economy around. >> i have been retired since 2005 but my company, the hoover co., that makes hoover sweepers, has left canton, and 50 years ago this verdict went to texas -- excuse me, mexico. from 2005 until now, there were young people working there, husbands and wives, both losing their jobs the same time, losing their insurance. in canton, it was devastating. >> my husband is a small business owner. he had to let two people go.

it definitely affected our son, he lost his job. they have four children. it has affected everyone somehow. everyone seems to know somebody who has been affected by losing jobs or, you know, full-time to part-time. >> we know how hard it is sometimes to defeat an incumbent, so with bocceri being there, this is his second year -- the longer he stays in the more familiarity he will have with those independents or the voters who do not always vote on a party line. the republicans know that. if they want to take this seat, this is prime pickings. >> i also think too many folks run to get to the next election. they are afraid to take a position because it might cost their jobs. frankly, washington is full of those types of congressman. i ran for office not just to win

the election but to get things done. >> top the 10 people, 15 people, get out the vote. this is going to come down the wire for all of us. let's get out, let's vote, let's make a difference on november 2. let's send some of those guys back home to their unemployment line. [applause] >> leading up to the november 2 midterm elections, we are travelling the country and visiting congressional districts where some of the most closely contested house races are taking place. for more information on what the local content vehicles are up to, visit our website, c- span.org/lcv. "washington journal" continues. host: on your screen is a familiar face to "washington journal" do worse during election season, jennifer duffy,

senate editor for the cook political report. thank you for spending time with us. let's start with predictions. currently the senate break down as 57 democrats, 41 republicans, two independents who caucus with democrats. what will be as of november 3? guest: somewhere between 52 democrats and 48 republicans and possibly a 50-50 senate. host: what are the two races that would make it 50-50 senate that you are waiting? guest: i think right now if republicans get that 50-50 senate, it will probably be about winning california, washington state, were both. -- or both. host: let's start with the majority leader. senator harry reid and sharron angle in nevada. caller: you know, this has been, first, one of the ugliest race as we have seen. it is also going to be one of the closest. i don't know anybody in either

party who knows definitively what they think is going to happen. it is going to be dead even. there was a pool that had sharron angle up a little bit but this seesaws back and forth almost every night. here is the key, i think. nevada is the only state in the nation that has an option on its ballot to vote for none of these -- no one. you can opt to vote for no one. this is not actually good for sharron angle because presumably anybody who opts for no one is probably first an anti-reid boater and then anti-angle so it would be siphoning votes off for her. that is one of the two or three races where anyone -- anything can happen. host: is there an official tea party person on the ballot? guest: there is an official tea party candidate. he is not really pulling much vote from angle.

he got on the ballot when they thought they would have a more establishment republican. the tea party is behind sharron angle and not behind him. they are pretty ankle -- angry that he went out and formed an official tea party. host: do you register by party and has there been early voting? guest: that has been early voting and you do register by party. those numbers look to the day today. republicans were getting their vote out, especially in some swing counties, which is important. so there is some enthusiasm out there. but early voting is only predicted to a point. it matters who shows up on election day. host: predictions. and of the day, who wins? guest: if you put a gun to my head, i could not do it. host:, roddick, michael bennet and joe but -- colorado, michael bennet and buck.

guest: michael bennet is an appointed senator. two things working against and -- the political environmental but against democrats. and the fact he was never elected in his own right. he has trailed in this race almost from day one. republicans did not get the candidate that they wanted but they are happy with ken buck, was the district attorney. their concern is the tea party candy came under fire. one of the things that is striking is the amount of money that has been spent by outside groups. host: who is putting it in? guest: just about everybody. both party committees. american crossroads, u.s. chamber. michael bennet has gotten some help from places -- i believe environmental groups have been out there. you can't tell one of the problems michael bennet must have a suburban women. one of the few candidates in the country who is actually airing ads on social issues.

we are not seeing that a lot, but they are clearly aimed at suburban women. this is also going to be another close one. this one is a point in either direction. host: register by party -- early voting? guest: i believe you register by party. there is some early voting. colorado is one of those states -- have not gotten the early indications. denver suburbs will be key. the counties surrounding denver, what to those on election night because i think they will be pretty constructive. host: barbara boxer, carly fiorina. national republican senatorial committee just put another $3 million into carly fiorina's race but the polls seem to favor barbara boxer. guest: it is interesting. of the polls have been all over the map. the public polls are not all terrific measures of what is going on official -- especially when you look at some of the

robo-polls. some samples look a little to democratic, for example. i know the "l.a. times" has been criticized by republicans as classifying as likely voters sporadic or first-time democratic voters. i get the sense that both parties feel it is still a close race. but here is the real problem with barbara boxer, where she sits in the most reliable polls, between 45% and 47% -- they get very few undecided voters. i think carly fiorina is behind two to four. . this is the first week in the campaign that the two are at parity on television. where boxer is not outspending carly fiorina. probably a little more than $3 million of republican media on tv this week.

host: we heard a lot about meg whitman putting her funny -- money in the carly fiorina is another independently wealthy woman. as she put a lot for money in? guest: she put a lot of money into primaries. she does not have -- $140 million to spend. she put a million dollars into this race last week. it bought the rest of the campaign in terms of television. it will be interesting. turn out is key. while meg whitman is not doing well, she really is probably behind jerry brown. what she has put on the ground , not necessarily helping whitman enough. they tend to talk about

different issues. they are running separate races. host: staying out on the west coast, senator murray, the note rossi. guest: senator marie probably has an edge. she sometimes hits 50% but it is another race were turnout will be key. while she needs a strong -- he needs a strong closing argument that he has not quite made yet, -- his argument is that the reformers that murray was years ago is gone. she has become part of washington. we will see if voters by this, but i would have to give it to marie today.

host: no mail-in in washington? guest: there are, the poles are still open. -- polls are still open. host: a lot of money out to washington in the senate race? guest: there is a lot of money on both sides. i believe a couple of republican groups are there. again, it is another expensive race. the amount of money being spent is staggering. host: illinois. guest: this is the third of the races that are too tough to call. this has been an interesting race. first of all, there is a lot of

symbolism in this race. this is president obama's seat, and both parties appreciate that, but we are watching 38 seats the contested for, and this one seems to be all about character. you have giannoulious been described as a mob banker by democrats, kirk lying about his military record. it is interesting, you can tell what kind of year it is when republicans have a shot in a state like illinois. host: kentucky? guest: this has been another

great race to watch. you know the cycle is weird when you start talking about something called aquabuddha, who the democrats are accusing rand paul of were tripping in college. he does not believe the federal government should pay for programs like drug intervention treatment. and the other hand, the democrat made a tactical error. he made an ad about this aquabuddha and this other stuff that was done in college, and republicans have been able to cast an ad as false accusations of religion.

i think this is getting tougher for democrats which has to be disheartening for them because this was the last of the 18 republican seats on the ballot that they had a shot at winning. republicans may hold all of their own seats, all 18. host: pennsylvania. is that in the clue -- to close to call category? guest: -- too close to call category? guest: pat to me has been dropping and popularity. -- toomey has been dropping in popularity. one of the races that was close, sell the eastern pennsylvania shares the media market with

delaware. so voters in that region are getting a heavy dose of christine o'donnell, and that was helping sestak. host: this is pat toomey's second run? guest: yes. he seemed to scare arlen specter into changing parties. host: is he a factor in this race? guest: i do not think so. he has adored just tacked -- joe ses tak. host: west virginia? guest: this is one race where i think it is trending away from republicans. democrats have done a great job demonizing john racy, -- raese

and his family does not even live in west virginia, they live in florida. not exactly appealing to blue- collar voters. mansion -- manchion is in a tough race, but he is in better shape than a couple of weeks ago. host: we are with jennifer duffy talking about the toughest races going on right now. alaska? guest: this will stay in republican hands. host: jo miller's? guest: that but -- joe miller? guest: that is yet to be

determined. scott mcadams has held his own in this republican year but the race is really becoming a two way contest between miller and mark caskey. mark caskey is running as a write-in. she came into the race with some advantages as a right-in. she had the money in the bank. that is a lot of money in alaska. $1 million is a lot in alaska. she is well known. she has been in the senate eight years. she is no stranger to voters. she has the best chance has a right-in candidate since strom

thurmond won in 1934. he was the last write-in candidate to win in the senate. she has promised to caucus with republicans. there was a lot of squabbling within the republican conference before they broke for recess about whether she should keep her committee ranking on certain conditions. i think, however, in the way the race has progressed, if she wins, all will be forgiven. host: wisconsin? guest: i think it is probably over. i think senator feingold will lose the race to run johnson, a businessman.

the stunning thing about wisconsin, it was not much of a race in june. suddenly, it accelerated and two weeks ago, looking through the data, it will be very hard for fine gold to win the race. he has always run as an outsider, but this time he may have met his match in a candidate that is truly an outsider, has never been involved in politics, has never aspired for office. host: finally, missouri, roy blunt, robin carnahan. guest: it is the race of political dynasties. that racism is probably going to stay in the republican column, too. it is a tough year for democrats in that state generally.

she has really attacked blunt as part of the problem in washington, and got as far as calling him a crook, but it is not really resonating with voters. she is currently the secretary of state. was: roy blunt's son governor? guest: yes, it is. this is the race of dynasties. host: ranger cucamonga, california. caller: thank you for c-span. as usual, your guest is wonderful. i wanted to talk about your last segment, but this is sort of the same thing, and she is a political junkie. i am retired now after working 50 years, being a member of the

middle class. this year, i am more concerned than i ever have been about the influence of money in the election and the resurgence of what i can only describe as thinly described racism in white supremacy groups that i thought was dying off. especially after we elected our first black president. now to see this hatred, viciousness, the allies and gaining strength again after years and years of our society moving in what i felt was the right direction. host: are the senate races at all about president obama, how do you respond to her comments about what she sees as racism?

guest: almost any race in a midterm election will be about the sitting president, whoever that president is. the last big midterm wave election was in 1994 when bill clinton lost majorities in both the house and senate. as for the racism, and, -- that in i certainly see some of these activists, but i do not think it is the majority. these people tend to be part of bridget provocative and therefore tend to get coverage in the media -- provocative and therefore tend to get coverage in the media. i will put my faith in the american voter that it is the

minority, not the majority. host: kentucky. you are on with jennifer duffy of the cook report. caller: good morning, c-span. i wanted to make a comment about jennifer duffy. i wanted to thank you all for the work that you do at the cook report. you are in lexington, the aquabuddha ads are outlandish and are not sitting well. everyone is like, wow, they went there. our family has generally voted democratic, fort knox, and blue dog around this area, but one thing i wanted to bring to your attention -- the assault at the

rand paul-conaway debate. i have been watching fox news, i watch every news outlet regularly. both on john handy and bill o'reilly there was hardly a mention that there was a young lady a salted. it is on the front page of the "herald leader" here in lexington. she was muscle down, kicked, and a salted. it was not presented at all. host: we just showed it as well. it is -- is it getting any attention? caller: it is getting no attention. guest: it is an unfortunate situation that speaks to a problem. i have probably seen more

instability and intolerance in this election than i can remember. even from the elected officials, in my home state of rhode island we have deep gubernatorial nominee tell the president to shove it, which is pretty irresponsible, and it has culminated in this us all. by the way, there have been other incidents, and it is not ok. as far as fox, but the report is their business, but are you really surprised that they are not mentioning this? host: joe, republican. los angeles. caller: i do not appreciate that snide remark about fox

news. the liberal media controls everything else. they get their lead from the new york -- "the new york times, " "l.a. times, " but fox news is castigated when in reality they are doing a service to the country. the liberal media is doing a disservice to the country. let's contextualize that reality. there is no such thing as a democrat anymore. the health care bill showed you that. they sound like ronald reagan in their home district and then they both like teddy kennedy. guest: first of all, i will address my own snide car meant. regardless of what you think about the media, the assault in kentucky is a big story. it is hard to ignore and not

discuss as a point of news. moderate democrats, you know what? i am not sure that they do not exist. when you get to congress, you have the pressure of the leadership on you to vote, to get legislation passed, but moderates are going to pay this time for voting for health care. i think moderates of both parties is another dying breed, which is another unfortunate thing that we have seen in politics. and they are not welcome in their own parties. we saw a number of moderate republicans lose primaries, moderate democrats challenged. the interesting about this is there is a big metal in the american electorate.

let's see if there is a birth of three moderation. host: the senator plantlet can stand a chance in arkansas? guest: the short answer is no. she has been 10 points behind since the primary. she never recovered from that challenge. she will not be returning. host: what can you tell us up about john bluesman? guest: he is an eye doctor. he has been in the house for a number of years. he is sort of not a show horse, conservative, quiet, goes to work. he represents a district including wal-mart and tyson foods, so he has -- host: d. you think there is some walmart money in that? what about florida?

guest: it was looking like your standard, a typical race, and then charlie crist surprised us all by becoming an independent. but he has struggled running as an independent. there are some practical problems running as an independent. you have no infrastructure, no party support, no voter lists, volunteers, a fund-raising list. and the other struggle is he has been on both sides of just about every issue, but he is running second. it looks like marco rubio has opened up a fairly healthy lead and will have no problem. host: could things still happen over the weekend? guest: of course. the worst thing you could say in politics is that nothing will

change. the thing with early voting, absentee voting, things have less of an impact. a lot of the boats have already been cast. a lot of this has been set in stone. it would take a major incident to change the trajectory over all, and it would take major events in individual races as well. host: columbus, ohio. betty. caller: i want to ask ms. duffy a question. this morning, i heard a report about a group of people who own private prisons who sold the idea to the governor of arizona about detaining the undocumented workers.

they want to put these people in prison and they would make money from that. i have not heard that anywhere else. i would like for her organization to look into this. guest: that is sort of beyond the scope of what we do. we are not investigators, we follow the elections. i have heard the same thing about arizona. i do not think it is something that we will move forward on, but be aware that a lot of states have privately-owned prisons. it but part of an effort to reduce costs, which in many states it has, also, to deal with overcrowding. illegal aliens detained in this country are typically detained in federal facilities.

arizona definitely pushes the envelope on this issue all the time, but it would be hard to justify detaining illegal theirrants outside of japa jurisdiction. host: we are talking about the top senate races in campaign 2010. that caller was from ohio. a big senate race there? guest: yes, the republican has opened up a big lead over the democrat joe fischer. everyone thought that his past would be a lethal combination. the democrat, unfortunately,

under his watch the state lost 400,000 jobs, so he gets a failing grade from republicans on that issue. it is a race to watch. another race to watch in that state is the governor's race. host: fulton county, illinois. thank you for holding. caller: i was just curious. me and a friend of mine thought about doing a write-in for a warner brothers character in our state. host: ok. kentucky. we are showing you some of the top senate races in the country. go ahead. caller: i am a big fan of c- span. i have been watching the

kentucky race between conaway and paul. -- conway and paul. i am wondering how the local races, democratic and republican strength, are helping other candidates? guest: the strength of the ticket pretty much benefits everybody. what you said it is interesting. if jack conway has any chance to win the race, he needs to run up big margins in louisville, a lexington, to offset where he will lose in other areas. paul may win more comfortably than we think.

host: yesterday we had a guest on -- we were showing a clip of the senator grassley. is he in trouble? guest: despite being on the floor as many times as he has, he is serious, he raises the money, he is running a full campaign this time. the last numbers i saw he was 18 points ahead. he should be fine. host: a viewer tweets in -- guest: if this was not 2010, this would join my troika of absolutely top races.

the state is known for its close races, but this is just not her year. this is not a reflection on robin carnahan, it is a reflection on the political firebrand. host: next caller. caller: i do not have a question. i just wanted to save the reason i am voting democratic is because i do not want to see social security privatized. i do not want to see them the day privatized. -- the va privatized. i do not want to see the minimum wage abolished. host: are those issues at play in senate races this year? guest: democrats are using a lot of these issues to portray republicans as far conservative

-- talking about social security and medicare -- an interesting response came from ron johnson in wisconsin. he had an ad where he says, i called social security a ponzi scheme. he values the programs, but not the way that congress treats them. a lot of these ads that tell voters that these programs are going to disappear, will be privatized, they're not really accurate. what republicans are saying, people who receive social security today, that will not change, nor will it change for those people 10 years out from getting it. what they want is new people

coming into the system to be able to have some options, as a way to keep the system financially viable. host: brooklyn, new york. robert on the republican line. caller: i am a republican but i would like to ask your opinion concerning gov. christie. why do republicans keep on saying no to everything the democrats are proposing? guest: the tunnel has been quite controversial between new york and new jersey. gov. christie yesterday announced that he was pretty much ending the possibility of it being built for good. his argument is not that he opposes the tunnel. he opposes what it will cost. he is afraid it will turn into another big dig, a project done

in massachusetts that took 20 years, and cost three times more than estimated. he just feels the state and federal government are not in a position to fund a project like this today. i do not think all republicans say no to everything, but they are taking a serious look at what things cost -- and voters, this is your money ultimately -- whether or not you can absorb that expense. host: why are we having two elections in new york? guest: we have a special election to fill the remaining two years of hillary clinton's term.

host: dr. dunk tweets in -- guest: first of all, you not need 66, you might need 61. yes, for a while, they did have 60 seats but they were not always able to stop republicans from filibustering legislation, using procedural moves to slow things down. but remember, that is because they lost some of those moderate democrats. you are right, you only have a true, sustainable majority if you have 60, 61 seats. host: next phone call for jennifer duffy. janice, independent line. caller: i am a first-time caller. i do not have a question but i

would like to make a statement. i think voting in this country has become obsolete because of polls. we know the outcome before we even vote. you are taking the enjoyment out of voting. you are constantly repeating polls to us, and i resent that. guest: i sympathize with you. i do not resent polls, i resent bad polls, and there are a lot of them. some, their methodology is not good, their results are just skewed. do not pay attention to them. polls have been known to be wrong. there are so many of them, i am looking less at individual polls

and more at trend lines. i am looking more at where they are going. i rely much less on individual polls. host: are we going to see any surprises? something out there that we should keep our eyes on? guest: i hope not. if there are, i have not done my job. this has may be what you see, and is important only to people like you and me who are watching this closely. maybe some democrats will underperform, maybe some will win big.

other than that, we know where these races are. host: last phone call comes from missouri. joy, republican line. go ahead. caller: i agree, i have never seen a more uncivilized race. now they have all the money to go on tv and tell absolute lies about each other. one of the main contributors to instability is the president. he said he would go into hand- to-hand combat with republicans. then in front of a latino audience he said we must punish our enemies and reward our friends. he also said republicans can go along on the ride but they have to ride in the back. that is dismissing half of the country's opinion.

it is destroying the cohesiveness of this country, these nasty, blanket statements. the congress people are picking up on that. the situation with voting fraud, this is a serious situation. when you have the president that nothing 50% of the population, that -- that is the worst. guest: first, on negative ads, over the past few elections, we have seen the rise of politifacts, which goes through each at an grades them on their credibility. they are a wonderful resource

for voters to see what is truth, what is an exaggeration. it is very helpful. hopefully, if they call out enough candidates, they will start to be better. on the second point, i think both parties are equally guilty of making a lot of statements that can be incendiary, can certainly isolate and offend the other party. the president does not get all the blame for this. republicans are just as guilty. this is the kind of thing that frustrates and voters, the kind of thing that may need to be dialed back in the future. host: we are going to finish where we started. what will the breakdown be after november 3?

guest: i think republicans will win between seven and nine seats, giving them between 48 and 50. democrats will have between 50 and 52. host: jennifer duffy, as always, thank you. coming up, we will look at the top gubernatorial races with jessica taylor of "politico." first, a campaign update. >> joining us on the phone from pennsylvania is joseph disarro, the political science professor at washington and jefferson college. let's begin with the senate race. joe sestak vs. pat toomey, what will you be watching for when the returns come in as an indicator of who will win? >> i will be watching from

washington jefferson college. we just completed a poll of likely voters, those who have voted in consecutive elections. we got a pretty interesting results. it seems like the reagan democrats are coming back. conservative democrats look like they will be voting republican, like they did back then. mohole of washington county which is 2-1 democrat, this is the result. toomey has 44.6%. if sestak cannot break through with conservative democrats, i believe he will lose. >> do you believe this is pat toomey's race?

>> i do. i was reading the national media, i have been following c- span, npr, and everyone was saying that this race was tightening, but that does not seem to be the case. the republican wave is so strong, very message that they have at the state and national level has resonated across the country. i predict a big victory for republicans. i think he will lose by seven, eight, 10 points. it is interesting that this message -- and this is the old message that republicans used years before with a new gingrich, tax and spend liberals. they have attached that to democrats at the state and national level.

the unfavorable in washington county for obama are very high. it will be an interesting election for an off-year election. host: pennsylvania 12th district. who is running, why is this competitive? >> we also pulled that district. when we see between tim burns and mark critz, it looks like it is a more competitive race than some people thought. some people thought critz was running the coattails of jack murtha, thought that he would win easily here in the fall, as he did in the special election, but it seems that race is

tightening in favor of the republican. the numbers are too close to call because the margin of error is four points. i look for a competitive race there. it seems critz, in spite of the poll, has the advantage. >> let's talk about the governor's race. the pennsylvania governor's race, election night, what are you watching as indicators for who will win? >> i think western pennsylvania is important. both candidates are from there. i will be watching the returns in washington county. corbett is a traditional republican and he is leading over onorato right now, and that

is in a democratic county. i will be watching the returns in washington county and western pennsylvania, but this is the home of both candidates. if one defeats the other by a large margin here, that will tell us who will win the election. >> a political science professor with washington jefferson college. thank you. >> it was a pleasure. >> for more information about campaign 2010, go to our website, c-span.org/politics. host: we continue our conversation of campaign 2010, now with jessica taylor from " politico" newspaper. talk about the time governor races for 2010. how many gubernatorial races are there across the nation? guest: there are 37 this year,

which is a record. there is a special term election in utah. plays pretty key and will pa an important part in to retrieve -- redistricting in 2012. what is key with this is where are looking at several midwestern states, western states that are historically conservative but are held by democrats, kansas, oklahoma. republicans have a real chance of picking seeds of this year. host: do you know how many? let's go through some of the major races. let's begin on the west coast with california. guest: a very large state that

both parties are targeting. meg whitman, she has spent over $140 million of her own money. jerry brown, he has been the mayor there dating back to 1970. we actually had a poll come out this morning, a field poll, and they were showing that hethis in moving in his favor, but there is actually an article in the "wall street journal" today at about meg whitman's strategy and how she is focusing her get-out- the-vote effort. host: colorado?

guest: gov. bill ritter, he decided not to run for a second term. the denver mayor had been a democratic nominee, and has consistently led in the polls, but what we see there, the republican candidate essentially imploded. host: why? guest: he was not expected to win his primary, but because of some other plagiarism scandal, other republican candidates dropped out of the race. then we had former representative tom tancredo, who retired previously, running, and he is focusing in on immigration. when you look at the polls coming out of there lately, he

is just a couple of points within hickenlooper, and he has sort of replaced maes as the de facto republican nominee. host: florida. rick scott, alex sink. the polls go back and forth. guest: this is one of the tightest races in the country. the quinnipiac poll came out this morning showing sync with her first lead. she is up three points. this mirrors what we have seen in the race. scott came out of the primary, he was not the favored over bill mccollum, and was having trouble coalescing republicans behind him. but he has spent an overwhelming

amount of his fortune on the race. that is what sink is hammering him on. he invoked the fifth amendment when his columbia hca was under investigation. making accusations of his wild spending. over $60 million of his own funds. they are both neck and neck. host: what is his position? guest: he is the florida cfo. host: another tight race is in illinois. pat quinn and brady. guest: that is right. this is all a result of the blagojevich scandal. his popularity is way down

there. bill brady was also not supposed to win his primary. they had the earliest primary this year, all the way back in february. it seems like so long since then. but he similarly had problems coalescing his party. his popularity is down, too, so this one could be all about who is more unpopular. he does have a lead over quinn . host: a consistent lead? guest: yes, it has been consistent. what could be helping him is the senate race there. mark kirk could helping to -- could be helping to counterbalance that. host: the governor's race in

ohio? guest: ted strickland has had the heavy support of the white house. joe biden has called it the most important rivers race in the country. he has struggled with unemployment, bad economic crisis. john kasich, he was a former representative, but he left to work for lehman brothers, so democrats are painting him as being a part of the problem. kasich was also a commentator for fox news. their parent company, of course, put $1 million into his organization. host: kasich is up in the

polls, isn't he? guest: yes, he is. he was up more at the beginning of the month -- the poles have been inconsistent -- polls have inconsistent, but he still has the lead. host: what about florida? guest: chris dudley is a former portland trailblazers basketball player. he is running as an outsider. kitazhaber is trying to return to his seat. this is going to be a tossup. host: and this is all mail-in? guest: yes, but it has been

fairly quick to count as well. host: pennsylvania? guest: attorney-general has held a lead their -- there. democrats have been impressed with honorable -- onorato. he could be doing better, but especially for republicans, this is a good state. it is a difficult climate for democrats in pennsylvania. several competitive house and senate seats. also, historically, pennsylvania has a history of switching parties. ed rendell is term limited. you almost look at it as the time that it will swing back to republicans. host: we are talking with

jessica taylor of "politico." she is the assistant editor, we are looking at gubernatorial races. we will be getting to your phone calls after these two races. let's talk about rhode island. guest: this has been an interesting one for the whole cycle, and it has shot up on the national scene after it was announced that the president would go there for a dccc event. but then the white house came out on friday that he would not be able to go. the independent candidate, lincoln chafee, a former senator who was defeated in 2006 as a republican, shortly thereafter became an independent, and then endorsed president obama. even with a small select or

above, this is one state that he needed to pick up. caprio took to the airwaves and said that the president could take his endorsement and shove it. he is definitely not backing down from his comments. these comments almost seem to be backfiring. there was a poll coming out last night from nbc that showed he was three, four points down from lincoln chafee. he had fallen to third place. lincoln chafee has been widening his lead.

there is another station that i will be looking at, to see if he hurt his chances. host: vermont. guest: he had a head start on this one. dubie did not have a republican primary, where as democrats had a competitive 5-way primary. these other primaries, where they have killed each other back and forth, that was not the case here. it was a close count there, but they all came together, even when the recount was going on. all five candidates were touring the state together. dubie has held a minor league in

the polls. -- lead in the polls. this is one that democrats definitely think they can take back. host: the redrawing of the congressional districts, that is very important to the group of drug candidates. when does that begin? guest: in most states, they have a heavy hand in working through this with the legislature. it is almost a two step process. the legislative maps will be completely redone and we will have a different electoral congress going into 2012. democrats will admit they will lose several seeds -- seats.

what they are really targeting are these big states that have such electoral emphasis in 2012. that is why they are targeting some of the big states like florida, california, texas. host: governor races. jessica taylor is our guest. texas, rob. you are first. caller: i believe in a fair shake for all the candidates. i apologize if you cannot hear me well. i wanted to talk about that situation of the girl that got shoved to the ground. i felt horrible. i managed to catch on the internet that she had through a side through his window first. in this age of terrorism, you

never know what she was doing. everybody only plays that clip of her being knocked to the ground. host: there is a gubernatorial race in new hampshire? guest: yes, john stephen is the incumbent. the democrat. this has been a close 0 and then they had expected. -- closer one than they had expected. host: cleveland, gerald. democratic line. caller: i just want to say this. i have 120 phone number is in my cell phone. only five of them are house phones. how do you do polling? host: are you supporting gov. strickland for reelection? caller: yes, i am.

host: why? caller: people in ohio want jobs. republicans only voted for those policies that send our jobs away. host: do you do any pulling yourself, do you have knowledge on pulling when it comes to land lines? guest: they have adapted to this, especially with younger people who have a cell phone as their primary method. we are definitely getting more accurate and they are taking into account the changing landscape we are looking at. host: we are talking about the top gubernatorial races in the nation. minneapolis. hello, bill. caller: good morning. i do not know if minnesota is bucking the trend nationally.

we have three running for governor. we have a former senator, tom and, tomrepublican co horner, who is pretty much funding his own campaign. on the climate is about 3% lower i want to vote for the , but he wants to raise taxes. we have no taxes on food or clothing in the state. he wants to tax them both. host: you said you want to vote for him and then you said, "but." which we are you going?

-- which way are you going? caller: i think are going to vote for the former senator. guest: this is one that democrats are seen as a key pick up opportunity because governor pawlenty is not running again. he is expected to run for president in 2012. i think the caller said that -- and he admitted that he was one of the worst senators in state history. but this is another one in the governors' races were you do have a third party candidate. the is a former republican

turned independent. and he said he left the republican party because he did not like the way things are going. he is largely expected to siphon some more votes. dayton has been leading there in the polls. host: and is he consistently leading enough that it is pretty comfortable? guest: it is a little tighter after the primary, but in the most recent polls he has been holding a steady lead. host: another state gubernatorial election cycle. good morning, caller, how are you? caller: i moved to arizona in the past year and i want to say that i think california is doomed if they do not start replacing their liberal politicians with conservatives.

that also goes for local politicians. they are spending money in a giddy way. they are spending billions of dollars they do not have. and what is even worse, they do not care. they continue to spend and it is as if they are unconcerned about future generations having to spend billions of dollars that they do not have. host: are you voting for damper for reelection? brewer forfor jan brawne reelection? caller: i sure am. guest: what has the sort of helped her and almost secured her reelection was this controversial immigration law. she championed its and signed it and everything. she is expected to win her based there.

host: is it close? guest: has held a very consistent double-digit lead in the polls -- she has held a very consistent double-digit lead in the polls. she froze twice in her opening statement. that does not seem to have nudged her down in the polls at all. host: 4 myers, fla., peter and the democrats line. caller: over the years, we had a republican governor, republican senators in most of florida and we get nothing done. why should the republicans go back to the same thing again? host: peter, are you supporting kendrick meek? caller: yes.

host: are you supporting alex sink? caller: sure. guest: democrats are trying to say this is how we get into the mess with the republican administration and the bush administration. with his collar, at least, it does seem to have resonated. -- with this caller, at least, it does seem to have resonated. host: gerald, on the independent line. go ahead. caller: the republicans get in there and they spend money and the democrats get in there and they spend money. we need a different voice. the we need a change in washington. i cannot spend money i do not have. host: that was an independent voter. i think he is gone. i wanted to find elsewhere in --

who he was going to vote for for governor. connie, on the democrats line. caller: first, i'd like to say something because i was trying to get on when the last lady was on there. she did not know what she was talking about because 39 of the tea party said that they think that social security is either on constitutional or they want to privatize it or they want it cut. they all said that. then closer to the and they started changing their tune when they saw people were not going along with that. and if senior citizens vote for them, then they can expect to get their checks cut or they wind up not having it.

another thing that she set does not true, you've got to have 67 in order to get anything done because the 67 people will break the filibuster. and she did not know that. she said 60 or 61. host: connie, who are you voting for for governor in maryland? caller: o'malley, because he has done a wonderful job with the schools and he is doing everything better than ehrlich. ehrlich wants things to go up 72% and is affecting everybody. guest: this is another sort of rematch. o'malley has definitely opened up a lead in the polls. high single digits in polls

from the baltimore sun and the washington post. o malave is expected to ultimately defeat permit a second cut -- o'malley is expected to ultimately defeat ehrlich a second time. host: steve on the republican line. caller: i called in on the republican line, but my father was a democratic politician in new jersey. i grew up in a very democratic household. the political left will not engage in an honest debate about what the problems are. therefore, i consider myself to be an anti-democrat. and first among those is this whole race thing. how can somebody who does not like barack obama be a racist if their favorite supreme court justice clarence thomas and they're for it -- and their favorite writer is thomas sold?

skin color is irrelevant. guest: a lot of voters are disaffected in this cycle with both parties. there are certain black republicans as well. we have seen several elected to the house, where currently the house republican in south carolina, tim scott, is expected to win his seat. i think both parties are making better purchase and trying to make molt -- make more cultural appeals. host: we have talked a lot about the affect of the tea party when it comes to congress. what about the gubernatorial races? does that have the same effect? guest: we have seen it in some

races. in races like florida, where rick scott ultimately beat bill mccollum, we have seen in britain have seen it in colorado, too. but it has not been -- we have seen it. we have seen it in colorado, too. but it has not been as widespread. it has had an effect on individual races, but the biggest impact is in the house. host: iowa, a democrat, robert, good morning. caller: i'm voting for [unintelligible] in iowa. i'm really looking forward to the debate tonight between gritty and quinn. the ads are so negative and when the truth comes of, they are just trying to pad their own pockets.

i'm sick of the oval -- but i'm sick of the whole negative ad campaign. host: that is a debate that we will be covering. it will not be showing it live, but we will be airing that debate between gov. pat quinn and his challenger, bill brady. guest: he is the longest serving theire and he is seeking it back. they see branstad, you know, he whengovernor in the '80s po they were spending and splurging

and he is starting a recovering that. host: suit in rome, ga., another state with the gubernatorial race. caller: i would like to ask the lady about the governor's race in georgia. host: who are you supporting? caller: i'm supporting a thin veil, republican, because barnes has already been -- by supporting nathan dale, republican, because barnes has already been governor. i would like to get her opinion. guest: this is another one that is probably a little closer than a true b, especially in a republican state like georgia. -- and then it should be, especially in a republican state like georgia. there was a very bitter republican primary that came down into a runoff between

secretary of state and representative nathan deal. and he focused on his governor's race there. shortly after the runoff, and he didn't win the runoff and have the support of mike huckabee whereas his opponent had the but het of sarah palin, bu had questions come out about whether he pushed for a private road to lead to his business and everything. that is what democrats are hammering him on. that is why this race is a little bit closer than it should become especially in a republican state. but he still does have a consistent lead in the polls.

but barnes should not be counted out as well. democrats do see this as a state where, if everything does go their way, then questions about nathan deal could really hammer him. republicans are saying about barnes that you voted him out once, why would you want to vote him back in? host: we have talked about all of the toss of races except for hawaii. on this list -- when it comes to republicans, what is going on in hawaii? guest: the candidates there has been lieutenant governor.

we have seen representatives run for congress this year as well, but they have not had a lot of time because they are having to defend their records in congress. recent polls have seen abercrombie take a set -- slightly. -- a slight lead. host: joseph in brooklyn, independent line. caller: i have two comments. one, i have family and friends in a lot of different states and it used to be that if i talk to my friends i got a lot different political picture than my family. nowadays i get the same from everybody in all the different states. mainly, they are sick of the entire political system. the more these ads come out and the more of the parties fund

these mega million dollar campaigns, the more people do not want to believe any of it. people do not have any idea of what to believe or not believe. host: joseph, who are you supporting for governor in new york? caller: i do not believe that i have any kind of choice of venue and i believe in, at all, whatsoever. -- of anyone i believe in, at all, whatsoever. just to get the kind of money, it takes to run for any office is not the type of person that we want in office because they are already too crowded. host: all right, -- they are already too crowdecrooked. host: all right, jessica, was using? guest: new york politics has been a bit mired.

elliot spitzer had to retire office and handed off to david paterson. andrew cuomo had a clean shot at this. his opponent had a lot of money in there, but has had to stumble after stumble. cuomo was expected to win their on election night pretty handily. but after the primary, there were some polls that showed a bit of a scare, but that was lyer.itely an out lia host: any idea how much has been spend on the gubernatorial races? guest: we have seen quite a bit

spent. scott probably has, of those three, the best shot of winning on election night, but whitman showed her down 10. today -- down 10 points a day. she spent more than anyone in these races. host: jessica taylor is the assistant editor of the politico. thank you for being on the "washington journal" and coming up next, we will look at the role of the independents in the 2010 campaign. >> the latest associated press survey of leading economists finds there are out look for 2011 will mirror than in past polls with only slight improvement -- gloomier than in

past polls with only a slight improvement. unimplemented think only that but to about 9% by the end of -- and employment, and dipping to only about 9% by the end of 2011. turning back to politics, a new quebec? university poll released today -- a new university poll released today shows mariko rubio's, it is shrinking. meanwhile, alex cink holds a slight lead over kendrick meek. voters in polling places may see a list of a write-in candidate. the state appealed an earlier order issued by a superior court judge disallowing the distribution of rights in candidates' names.

the registered right in candidates will be list -- will be limited to candidates only, no party affiliation. rakowski is a, running as a write-in candidate. those are some of the latest headlines on c-span radio. >> presidents do not manage crises. they use them. they exploit them to build this emotional bond. lincoln in the early months of his presidency, or think of churchill in the battle of britain. that is an acid test and i am not sure we have seen that from recent presidents. >> sunday night at 8:00 p.m. eastern and pacific. >> with just days til election day, follow the key races and candidates on c-span. and on line or visit the c-span

video library. this weekend, see the jon stewart/steven colbert raleigh live this saturday and not in live, the rallyin saturday at noon eastern. >> it is time to get your camera rolling for this year's studentcam, c-span's video documentary competition open to the middle and high school students. "washington d.c. through violence," and you can win the grand prize -- through my glance," and you can win the grand prize of $5,000. "washington journal" continues. host: our next segment is about independent voters in campaign

2010. we're pleased to be joined by jon avlon, a senior columnist with the daily beast and also offer -- the author of the book "wingnuts: how the lunatic fringe is hijacking america." mr. avlon joins us from new york city. there is a poll in the new york times -- in the "new york times" and is about a coalition from 2008. and they look at their role of independents in this race. there has been a big time flip- flop over to the republican side of the aisle with independents. why is that dicot guest: is a significant shift. -- why is that? guest: it is a significant shift. i would argue thats thats are

actually -- i would argue that independents and being consistent. they tend to like divided government. that is because they feel that by providing checks and balances, they will put a check on ideological overreach, legislative overreach and effectively force the two parties to work together. that is why america has voted for a divided government two- thirds of the time over the last century. we have seen an instinct that when one party has control of government and a unified fashion, that leads to an overreach that independents are inherently uncomfortable with. host: what percentage of the country of the device itself as independent, and is its strong

-- but the country identifies itself as independent, and is it strong enough make an impact? guest: 45% identify themselves as independent. that is basically an historic high. if you look back at the mid 20th century, it was about 18% of the population. there were a couple of spikes. after watergate there was a high. during the 1990's when ross perot was running for president. you really seek independences break -- you release the independents breaking with democrats over the health care bill. the common characteristics, you are dealing with a significant

bell curve of the population. you see the two parties are more polarized than ever before. independents tend to track the general election and a bit better. but it is not just days late, moshi middle approach to politics. they tend to be closer to republicans on economic issues and closer to democrats on social issues. there are independents that support the tea party and there are those that do not think democrats are far left enough. i believe it this mainstream movement is in direct reaction to the polarized parties. the more polarized they get, the more the independents growth. whether it will coalesce into a third party movement remains to

be seen. but the two parties need to wake up to the fact that this is happening under their noses. they want to be in denial about it. because so many independents are fiscally conservative and socially liberal, it makes it almost impossible for the parties to genuinely reach out to that group. the independents swing between the tip of a party is, looking to bring balance to washington. -- between the two parties, looking to bring balance to washington. host: our guest is here to talk of independent voters. the we have derided our phone lines by regional areas. -- we have divided our phone lines are regional areas. the numbers are on the screen.

please allow 30 days between your calls. ts.t independence we want to hear from you. john avlon, are the rolaine parts of the party's going to be even more extreme -- the ruling in parts of the parties going to be even more extreme? guest: as america grows even more independent, there is a huge section of that. add to that the redistricting and you get delaware, new york, and rep can -- unrepresentative candidates can win a general election, but appealed to a very narrow audience.

it is fundamentally an unrepresentative, and it has caused the politics to shift so that the candidates increasingly want to play to the base and ignore the vast majority of their constituents. we have seen this in this political cycle, political figures who can throw long balls and be as polarizing as possible and it will be rewarded with cash. there may be an opportunity at the end of all of this, but more and more americans feel ed by the politics as usual. host: john avlon, of the current crop of candidates in this 2010 election cycle, would you consider to be truly centrist? guest: i think both parties have good people running in them. you want to vote for the person,

not the party. it is something that gets lost in his ideological era that we live in. so many people are other projects for one party or an ideological strain for four or another. therefore candidates on either side that i felt reached out to the voters and i think were rewarded for that. there is one in congress in new york fed has done a good job. he co-authored the something called the tuesday group. he is fiscally conservative. he is strong on national security, but more liberal than libertarian on social issues. that is one reason the far right has opposed him. he is pro-choice. but he is the kind of candidate they can win in a state like illinois. colorado is one of the 10 states where registered independents

outnumber democrats or republicans. there is a candidate bear who is now mayor of denver. he is leading in polls to become the democratic governor of colorado in part because the republican party put forward a candidate that was deeply flawed, as was found out after the nomination, and tom tancredo is running as an activist and conservative. he is a pretty polarizing died. he looks like he is going to win that race. -- he is a pretty polarizing died. he looks like he's going to win that race. they want extremes between the choices because they figured voters will have to choose between them. there are a lot of good candidates in the house as well.

branson of all, running for governor of nevada -- brian sandoval, running for governments and nevada. we have seen tom -- will lose, paul harry lose -- tom daschle lose, paul harry lose. he gap between sandoval's popularity and engle's merrilee this shows the difference between the two parties. -- narrow lead shows the differences between the parties. they're a great within their group that -- against anyone --

they are angry with anyone it within their group that does not play party politics. >> john avlon is our guest -- host: john avlon is our guest. he is the author of "wingnuts: how the lunatic fringe is hijacking america" and is a senior political columnist for the daily beast. first caller, from oregon. caller: i have been a greeny for years. this two-party system -- the only people, elizabeth warren and bernie sanders, they're the only people that i feel are still fighting a good fight.

it is beyond me why we do not have some form of a single payer plan, if you will. host: we have some environmental issues on the table, john avlon, single payer, from laurean. guest: callers seem to be expressing an independent view from the far left, which feels that president obama, for example, has not been far left enough, that there should be single payer in the debate. and there are those in the far right that do not fit beneath the disaffected middle. but in general, i do not think single payer is a position that is shared by the overwhelming number of independents. in fact, if you look fdot why they are striking against democrats right now -- if you

look at why they are striking against the democrats are now, there is skepticism about cost, gross of entitlements. -- the growth of entitlements. and they said that maybe america does not do comprehensive so well. independent voters on health care have spoken critically against the president, and more important, democratic control of congress. host: next call for jenna -- for john f. on contra costa mesa, california. -- for john avlon comes from coast to mesa, california. caller: he is exactly correct. the fringes of both sides have almost set our country -- it is like duponi blame both parties r the demise that we are in.

aisle, it'se center the center aisle of any streets with cars going in both directions, yeah, that is the most dangerous place to be. but the answer lies right there in the middle. both parties are so taken by their agendas and those that support them. we are never going to get the answer because everybody is so extreme at this point. there are a lot of good people in the middle, but because the dominating dogma of each party, none of those people rise because, my gosh, working with the other side dot host: all right, we got it. john avlon. guest: i could not agree with this column more. this is very sincere and deep seated for me.

i really feel that hyper partisanship is hurting our country right now. it is stopping us from solving our most urgent issues. because politics is being played by rules that reenforce the most extreme ideas, the do not reward their reaching across the aisle. and instead, consider the a form of collaboration. -- consider that the form of collaboration. we need to define where the compromise is and build on it. a lot of people who are hyper partisan will look down their nose and say that the only thing down the middle of the road are dead armadillos and yellow lines. it is a good argument, but it is cheap and misleading. the better rational and the strength from the center comes from president eisenhower.

he said, look, the middle of the road is on the surface. the left and right are in the gutter. the four extremes of each party tend to demagogue issues to get, but then do nothing about it. host: what is your affiliation? guest: i am an independent. i started as a white house intern under clinton. and i was proud to work for rudy guiliani in new york city has his speech writer and a key policy advisor for his campaign. rudy guiliani has been called byford sigel a great arthur and moderate centrists, who showed that -- has been called by fred siegel a great author and moderate centrist, who showed

that independent politics have a place. i think we need a sense of backbone in our politics. that is one of the reasons i am proud to be an independent. i think and part of a rising generation of books on the two- party system that -- that looks on the two-party system and sees it as outdated. the parties are still playing politics by industrial age rules. they do not want to wake up to information age reality. they will have to let some point. they will deny this change in politics as long as they can, but they cannot ignore the fastest-growing sector of the electorate indefinitely. host: this week has come in --

guest: ballot access laws are a really big deal. in the concluding chapter of my books, i write about how we can take back the american fringe. two prescriptions that are vitally important redistricting and leveling the playing field. we need to encourage more honest competition, which will stop the parties from hijacking things with these extreme elements. the two parties are reading things were possible to keep power. and their redistricting is just a form of collusion between the two parties. in york city where i live, the conventional wisdom says join the democratic party so you can vote in the primaries and

participate in the general election. there is no general election among the local leaders. there is something fundamentally undemocratic about that. and remember, the founding fathers, many of them were very skeptical about the rising parties, and george washington in particular. and there were concerned about factions. the constitution does not mention political parties. at the moment, they are looking more and more like obstacles to an open democracy. we need to confront it and the honest about it. -- be honest about it. host: the next call comes from an independent in new market, maryland. go ahead, diane. caller: this is the very first time i've called, store and a bit nervous. -- so i'm a bit nervous.

i'm a registered independent and i have voted in the past both republican and democrat. one of the reasons i'm an independent, and this is just the last three years or so, i am really upset about your word, hyper partisanship. that is a great word because that is exactly why i went to the independent party. of the democrats and republicans fighting each other and nothing getting done. i feel very strongly about social issues and also very strongly about economic issues. i have would like to see in nationalized health-care system, which friend of goes against what you have been saying a little bit. we are such a wealthy country.

it is beyond my reasoning why we cannot have social issues in general resolved by our government. host: john avlon? thank guest: you for the call. guest: i think thank you for the call. i think it is indicative -- guest: thank you for the call. i think it is indicative of the general public. these parties create issues to divide the american public. one of the issues that is ignored is that there is a broad consensus on many of these issues. in fact, on most issues the american people are closely divided. they would say, but we agree on

80% of most things. but instead, we have divided conversations about the panels. that is an insane situation. it is counter to productivity. however partisanship is very simply -- hyper partisanship is very simply, divide and conquer. whenever congress tries to reach across the aisle -- a great example occurred in south carolina where my parents live. the senator lindy gramm had the temerity to co-author of an op- ed with john kerry on climate change. he said, look, we do not agree on much, but here is something we can agree upon. and when he went on to south carolina he got shot down as a traitor. we have a big problem in america and we need to confront that and

deal with that. one of the changes is to stop -- start reaching across the aisle. and we need to counterbalance these activists who do the cynically tried to polarize and divide us. they tried to appeal to the narrow audience to create resentment and to drive ratings up. that is a strategy that we need to confront as well. is in fusing our politics increasingly. -- it is confusing our politics increasingly. there is a broad consensus that we can build on. the american people are nowhere near as divided as they would like it to appear. host: next caller, go ahead. you are on the air with john avlon. caller: i became independent on the because i could not

criticize either party. becoming an independent allow me the chance to go outside looking in. what i've seen is how this rural -- how visceral the campaigns have become. the independents have been put out as the french, or as the enemy, according to president , or as- as the fringe the enemy, according to president obama right now. host: before we get an answer, who are you voting for for senate down there with an independent candidate? caller: after what we just saw the last debate and i think it is pretty much guaranteed that we're going to go with rick scott and marker rubio. we do not have a candidate --

charlie crist is not an independent. he was only running as an independent because he had no chance of getting reelected with the republican party. and we do not have a true independent there. host: thanks, jay. john avlon. guest: i appreciate the caller's comments. if there had been an open republican primary, it would have been more competitive. but i agree, charlie crist in some ways confirms the worst stereotypes of the center. mariko rubio has always been a better candidates -- marco rubio has always been a better candidate than just the tea party candidate. in order island, lincoln chafee would be an extraordinary thing. and gives king, who was one of the unrecognized personalities

and politics who showed how it could be done. -- angus king, who was one of the under recognized personalities in politics showed how it could be done. it is a crazy time we are living in right now because if you vote 100% party-line and you lumped in with aipac kominar reported by the activist press -- a lump in with a pack, you are rewarded by the activist press. what is courageous is the courage to speak your mind and be independent and to break with the lockstep of your party. the hyper partisan kool-aid that is being passed around in

washington -- you know, you've got a lot of candidates that are running on libertarianism. libertarians have a lot in common with independent voters and the center in general because if you are fiscally conservative and socially liberal, there is a massive over lot there. you should not have to choose between a party that wants to overload the deficit and a party that wants to refuse in marriage and the abortion even in the case of rape and incest. -- to refuse to gay marriage and abortion, even in the case of rape and incest. there is something fundamentally -- i mean, america is an independent nation. we distressed ideologues. we do not like it when we are asked -- we mistrust ideologues.

we do not like it when we are asked to walk lock and step. in my first book, "independent nation" i tried to show that our best leaders are not the most polarizing or ideological, but those that have the courage to walk an independent path and form coalitions in their wake. host: and john avlon's most recent book is "wingnuts: how the lunatic fringe is hijacking america" and his first book is, "house interest can change america." maggie, hello. caller: i am one of 54 million disabled. the reason why i turned independent is because republicans seem to be shredding the social safety net and the democrats -- i used to sit on the executive committee of the state democratic party and i was

so dismayed by their narrow thinking. they used to have a wide, broad, 10 to -- a wide, broad tent. it no longer seems to be accepted. i'm voting for brown. there are some things i believe in his politics, but other things that he says in his campaigns -- i have nothing not to lose at this stage in my life. to -- i have nothing to lose at this stage in my life. and governor schwarzenegger has been saying things like i want to blow up those boxes and that has not been helpful for those who are dependent on social programs. guest: when she spoke about the way she served our democratic committee, but they got a

narrower and narrower, both parties are doing it. it is not just one party that does it. that is what is forcing more and more people to declare their independence. they feel alienated by the rigid in mean -- by the rigidity of the parties on both sides. the parties have themselves to blame, in part, for this dynamic that we are seeing. and there is a common sense sentiment out there that does not want the candidates that cater to the parties. it is interesting that both brown in california and andrew cuomo in new york seem to be running with this nixon in china promised. that they as democrats are in position to take on the powerful labor unions that are bankrupting the state. i do believe there is a lot of

truth to the nixon in china strategy broadly. there is a precedent for that. but nobody should get distracted just by social issues. hold on to them as a sense of principle, but the urgency that we're facing right out is bankruptcy. the obligations that we cannot meet ultimately deals to funding the public sector. we have obligations that we cannot meet right now. too often, elected leaders get the support of these groups to win the party's nomination. they sacrifice their ability to be independent and actually solve the problem. host: we have a tweet from florida -- we just heard from maggie, an independent, voting for jerry

brown. as soon as a preference is stated, what happens? guest: a whole point of being independent is that they reserve their right to vote for the person, not a party. that liberating, common-sense wisdom is putting that sensibility back into politics. independence say, look, -- ts say, look, we do not want that. even though america is deeply divided between the far left and far right, independents are the largest and fastest growing alona section of the electorate.

we can change the dynamic of our politics. we can stop politicians from justice and agree polarizing and start rewarding the folks who are using their judgment and the politics of problem-solving again. host: john and from arizona, go ahead. american first and the world is watching what is going on. especially china is watching what is going on. i think is really important that we hersh true -- that we are true independents. by think that we need to look at the fact that we have some real issues. the economy is a real issue. it is an american issue. not a democrat or republican issue, but an american issue.

host: john avlon. guest: the caller is right. when we go back in american history we tend to forget what party political leaders fell to. there is a sentiment that we have lost in recent years as well, the partisanship are to end at the water's edge. good people can disagree. when tip o'neill and ronald reagan had two very different visions for the american government, they could still laugh about it at the end of the day and had a drink. washington has become the only town in the country where people choose their friends and co- workers based on what political party they belong to. we increasingly retreat to partisan news sources. we are segregating ourselves into separate political realities. everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. what this polarization is doing is giving us a different set of

facts. we are not advancing one party's interest, we are dividing our country. we are invited to solve challenges in a united way. when you're dealing with a rising power like china, hyper partisanship is a force that can hurt us. it is hurting us. it is stopping us from being able to deal with challenges. instead, there's just short-term thinking. what makes a short-term gain? this election cycle. no one is thinking in terms of actually solving problems, which is reaching across the aisle. and what independents are insisting on more than anything else is that we need to look at the national interest, not the special interests, not a party interests. too often, the tail is wagging the dog. host: ken in centerville, virginia. we have about a minute left.

caller: i came into the workforce in 1979 and i think 1980 was the last year that the national debt was less than $1 trillion. today it is over $13 trillion, i think. i think on one side you have a party that likes to spend and cater to its constituency. and on the of the hand, you have a party that is trying to push the government to the verge of default. guest: is a great and important question. it looks like republicans are going to be served in this election. americans can look forward with -- look back with some sense of perspective and confidence because it was a divided government in the 1990's that to a our debt and reduced it.

the president convened a bipartisan reduction -- and debt reduction panel. they have leaders from both parties try to come up with a plan to deal with the deficit and debt. people are concerned about it because i think they realize that the debt created a geostrategic issue for america. that can't -- they realize then we cannot remain a superpower forever. the debt reduction panels are coming out and is being set up to fail. the folks on the far right are saying, if there are any tax increases at all, we will call it a tax hike panel. and those on the far left are saying, look, if there is any entitlement reform at all, we are going to say this is a panel that is gunning for grandma.

that approach to politics is unrealistic in a democracy. if people are serious about dealing with the debt and the deficit, we will have to realize that everybody is going to have to give something. do not trust anyone who tells you otherwise. it does not mean doing away with social security either. that is fear mongering and demagoguery from the far left. we have ways to help keep this country solvent and bring our country back. you cannot be an independent nation if you are in debt to other countries. host: john avlon, we have got to go. thank you so much. the daily beast, a weekly columnist and author of "wingnuts: how the lunatic fringe is hijacking america" and as you know, our conversation on politics will continue tomorrow morning on "washington journal