journal, a discussion on the newly elected congress and president obama. this is about 45 minutes. that is this weekend on c-span2. >> "washington journal" continues. host: our sunday roundtable with gail russell chaddock and susan page. thank you for coming back. we want to talk about speaker pelosi and speaker-to-be boehner. let's talk about the congress piggy can see a lot of red in the flyover parts of the country. still a lot of -- let's talk about this congress. you can see a lot of red and fly over part of the country. still a lot of blue on the edges. guest: they made some changes. it is talk about democrats been reduced to the party of the coasts.

it is a real turn of events in just two years. host: when you look at states like ohio, michigan, wisconsin, there are republican congressional districts everywhere. guest: i spent a lot of time in ohio. it is a lot -- a fascinating state. i think this will be a wake-up call to republicans to deal with these new house members. cannot just think about social issues when you deal with the open wounds of unemployment in that region. i think that will focus republicans in a serious way on doing something with the industrial base. host: at the aftermath of the campaign begins to filter out, nancy pelosi is going to stay in the house in a vie for a leadership position. guest: it was a little bit of a surprise. there was a lot of talk that nancy pelosi would choose not to seek the leadership again,

perhaps even resign from congress. she talked to her supporters, among house members, and has decided to seek the democratic leadership spot. that creates a domino effect with those who were lined up behind her. steny hoyer is announcing he will run for the no. 2 position held by james khyber of south carolina. -- jim clyburn of south carolina. there is no question that nancy pelosi can hold the leadership if she wants it, but it was a little bit of a surprise that she chose to go that way. host: there is a tradition with sam martin and sam rayburn -- going back and forth between party leadership and speakership in the 1940's and 1950's. guest: back in those days, speakers stayed a long time. recently, being senate leader or even speaker is not a guarantee of keeping your job.

there is a lot more volatility in those races. host: he says he would oppose -- jim yarmuth of kentucky says he would oppose nancy pelosi. pelosi for minority leader. he urges democrats to ignore that man. they may even deprive them of hoyer of the number two spot. good for you. do not be intimidated by election returns. stand by your woman. house them -- guest: we saw more than half of the conservative, blue dog democrats, leave the democrats either by defeat or choosing to retire. you have a more liberal caucus that is in tune with nancy pelosi's political philosophy. perhaps it is out of tune with the message that some democrats

got from the election, that there is a need to bolster the center of the party. host: gail russell chaddock, you spend some time with john boehner before the election. you met his wife and traveled to his congressional district. what did you learn? guest: i was surprised of what little capital he has made out of his life story. when you think about being going in a -- born in a log cabin. he has a very compelling personal story. i think it has made it hard for people to make attacks on him to stick. it is not where he comes from -- the country club republican. it is hard not to let him in that sense -- like him, in that sense. you can target him for many things, but likability is not

one of them. host: he has a weak beside set off by children, family, and speeches -- weepy side set off by children, family, in speeches on the floor -- and speeches on the floor. >> i have spent my whole life chasing the american dream. [cheers and applause] >> usa! usa! >> a lot of you know i started out mopping floors, waiting tables, and tending bar at my dad's tavern. i put myself through school, working every rotten job there

was. and every night shift i could fin. -- find. i poured my heart and soul into running a small business. [cheers and applause] when i came to washington without my core values of this great nation, i put my name forward to run for office. host: susan page. guest: i thought it was striking -- the woman who lost, no tears, a very defiant speech. the man who won -- a lot of emotion. host: a lot has been made of his macho persona.

his scrappy upbringing that included running cases of beer in his father's barn. he has another side in the form of quivering lips and wet lashes. he cries at annual golf tournament, talking about the good old days. he weeps as he watches a child give the pledge of allegiance. guest: he choked up during the interview i had with him, talking about a toughperiod in the education reform -- a tough period in the education reform bill where everyone was against him to the president strongly backed him at the last minute. there are a couple of things that are true about him. one is the tan. his skin really is that art and always has been. -- that dark and always has been. the thing people say most often about him is, what you see is what you get. he is not a manufactured persona.

host: you write about something like this. "there does not seem to be anybody in the white house that has any idea what it is like to wait -- like to lay awake at night and worry about money and worried about things slipping away." that is a quote from a retiring governor. obama is not bill clinton in the sense that he is not an extrovert. he does not gain energy by interacting with people. there is another quote saying that the president's message is missing the middle and that was missing in the midterm election campaign. guest: this is something that president obama talked about in his news conference the day after the election. he had not gotten out enough. people did not feel like they knew him. he needed to do that more and find ways to avoid the isolation of the white house.

when you lose big, there are a lot of people willing to tell you what you did wrong. one of the criticisms is that the white house has a lot of people who went to i believe schools and not many to went to state universities -- to ivy league schools and not many who went to state universities. they may not be good at connecting with the big part of america that did not go to ivy league schools. i think the exception is vice president biden who does have a connection with blue-collar voters. he has gone a lot of places like pennsylvania and ohio, where you have a lot of blue caller workers and middle-class -- blue-collar workers and middle- class americans who have been struggling with this economy. the white house acknowledges that is an area they need to address. host: here is a map of the 2010 midterm elections. here is a map looking at the

tough democratic landscape for 2012. we will talk to stuart rothenberg later in the program about that. there are 23 democratic seats and 10 republican seats up in 2012. >> people talk about the 2012 presidential election starting about a minute and half after number 2. the real impact will be on the senate side where you have a number of key moderates, ben nelson, bill nelson, jim webb has broken off with the white house on key issues. to what extent will they be looking at head and looking if the tide will still be around in two years? >> centre cornyn co is head of the senate campaign committee for the republican side talked about their results and said he did not think they would win a majority in the senate this time around but maybe next time around. if you look at just the numbers,

that seems like a real prospect two years from now that republicans will gain the senate. host: congressman bob menendez headed up the committee and 2004. there is speculation on who on the republican side will take that position. some have mentioned chuck schumer of new york. guest: can hardly a imagine anyone who is more needed or competence in that role. this is probably his strongest suit in terms of what he brings to leadership. host: the president is in india this weekend, part of a four nation tour of asia bread he sat down with steve croft on cbs' " 60 minutes." this runs about one minute. >> this defeat a reflection on your leadership? >> i think what happened over the course of two years is that

we had to take a series of emergency steps quickly. most of them were in this first six months of my administration grade each of them had a big price tag. you have intervention in the banks, you've got the automobile bailout. you have a stimulus package. each one had a lot of zeroes behind it. people looked at that and said this feels as if there is a huge expansion of government. >> it was a huge expansion of government. >> what i did not express it -- expressly drive home because we're were in such a rush to get this done is that we were taking these steps not because of some theory that we wanted to expand had an emergency situation and we want to make sure the economy did not go off a cliff. host: that interview airs tonight. guest: we have not seen all of

this interview but what we have seen is very consistent what we heard in the news conference after the election. present obama said he had a communications problem. he said that the emergency times demanded a emergency measures bread he did not repudiate any policies. he did not say it wasn't a mistake to pursue health care reform even at the expense of an earlier focus on a jobs agenda of bread he did not say any of the bailout for a problem in terms of the policy itself. other people look at this election and see a different message. they see a repudiation of some of the policies that the president has pursued. that is not the way he sees it. in the exit polls, voters were pretty/americans were about evenly divided about extending the bush-iraq tax cuts which we will see in the lame-duck congress. they were equally divided on whether to repeal or maintain the health care bill. if you look at the policy message of this election, it is

a little bit of a muddle. host: we will get to your cop -- phone calls in a moment and you can join us on twitter or send us an e-mail. you brought up the exit poll results. one figure i want to share with you from the exit poll results -- among the independence, 28% self-identified independents voted in the election . 56% voted for the republicans. >> that was a big swing. guest: it was 8% two years ago swinging to 18%. i think independents were obviously a target for republicans but especially on the issue of trust in government. it was not just what was communicated. it was not even what was done.

it was the perception that republicans very successfully created government is out of touch and having no clue how to connect with businesses or jobs. i was struck by the number of car dealers running on the republican side. mike kelly and others and they said something like they will join this race immediately after the automobile belau. they told me to shut down my automobile dealership. if this can happen to mike kelly, this can happen to anyone. by the way, they don't know anything about cars. that showed that the people we have in government may be good at ely colleges but don't have any idea how to deal with government. that is a very powerful message in this campaign. many of the business republican candidates took this pretty effectively to their electorate. host: another pennsylvania

candidate was elected in 2006 or 2008 but was wiped away in 2010. guest: another a fact is that for the first and since 1978, the new congress will have fewer women than the previous congress had. we hope maybe that is just a hiccup. women are less than 20% in congress but we are seeing many of the women who were elected in 2006 and 2008 as democrats in tough competitive races and losing. host: patrick is joining us from point pleasant, west virginia, independent line. caller: good morning and thank you for taking my call. a think -- a big thank-you to the young ladies. i love your discussion points. i think you touched on exactly

where we are having changes in policies set in place 30 years ago, 20 years ago are being perceived by our younger generation and older generations as differently as when they were put in place. you have so well stated that. discussion this morning. i appreciate both of your publications. i am a big reader. i attended a small state college. i got an advanced degree at another state college. you are right on track. we have people who are out of touch and the media control of the sound bites and the introduction of cable has changed the a rate of elections. i will just leave it at that, thank you. guest: patrick mentioned the

role of young people. young people continued to support democrats by a big margin but they did not turn out. to vote. there was a different electra which happens with midterm elections often. this was more conservative. it was whiter and had fewer racial minorities. it was older and that was one big reason for some of the changes we sell. guest: there was interesting talk in colorado this saturday of the rally on the mall with stephen colbert/jon stewart from union activists who said the where are the young people today? we need them more than ever. they are. in are it is not clear that that rally did not take people off the field on the day they were needed, according to the

experts. host: 1 cable news reporter was suspended by the cnbc. bill kristol said that nbc should bring him back and keith -- keep keith olbermann. guest: as a reporter, you cannot contribute to political candidates and cannot go to rallies and take sides and is because that is a violation of your role as a journalist. anybody who saw the keys olbermann show was surprised he was contributing to democrats. he said there was no role from prohibiting him from doing this. given that his role is to be provocative liberal anchor, it seems to me there is not a violation of the kind of journalistic code that would be if we contributed to candidates. guest: journalists weighing in on any matter of public trust, we are now below car dealers

usually, it is something we have to be alert to build up a sense of public trust in what we do. host: from the national journal, you brought some of the numbers of the new congress pretty average age in the senate right now is 52 and for the house is 48. there is one member under the age of 40 and u.s. senate and 50 under the age of 40 in the u.s. house of representatives. the number of african-americans a letter to the senate is zero and seven and the house of representatives. the number of those with advanced degrees, 13 in the senate, 56 in the house of representatives and the number who have held previous elected office, 59 in the house, 11 in the senate. back to your calls, massachusetts, republican line, good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. pardon me if i see my little angry because i am a republican in massachusetts. [laughter]

we did not partake in the wave that has come across the nation. people are finally waking up. host: some would argue that you began with the election of scott brown in january. caller: we did and we had hoped that people would finally understand. we hope nancy pelosi stays in charge of the democrats because we feel like we will kick their butt in 2012. when it comes to the economy, the reason it is not reacting and we have high unemployment is companies are afraid to hire because they have all this fear of health care and cost and the unknown of taxes. if obama had taken care of the taxes first and given everybody the future of where we were going, the economy would have been kicking around.

companies and corporations would have been all right. we would know what to expect. with the wave of republican victories, it is clear we need to get rid of this health-care host: we will talk about health care in a moment. the front page of "the boston globe," if there is one theme of all the states, pennsylvania, georgia, ohio where there are newly elected governors, the issue is pending deficits that the states are facing and california is the largest print guest: it is without the expectation of federal help they have gone in the last few years. there is no appetite for a big stimulus bill that might help states. we have seen layoffs and cutbacks begin already in states from the stimulus money which has run outdeval patrick is the first african-american to be elected to a second -- second

term since reconstruction. but there was a three-way race. guest: an interesting governor to watch is john kasich in ohio. he was a big part as a house member of balancing the budget at a national level it was easier because you can print money because you cannot do that in the states. it will be a test. in two years, all these republican governors will show that they can balance budgets without making constituents angry at how devastating to these cuts are a. the caller may be right. 2012 may be promising for republicans. if not, it could be a very powerful pendulum swing. host: let me go back to the earlier point about the gop to fight health care with first- rate pretty says pop republicans who will control the house but

will remain in a minority in the senate concede that they do not have the votes for their ultimate repeal of the health care bill pardon they had hoped to use the power of the purse strings to challenge some of the main elements of the law. 14 democrats, especially those up for reelection in 2012, will defend the health care bill. guest: i think you'll see all sorts of votes on initially the repeal of health care reform. i suspect it might be even h1, the first vote they take up. if not, it will be attached to all sorts of measures going through. the capacity to simply slow things down, to have hearings on every aspect of it, you'll see hearings on the senate side about what is positive about an hearings on the house side about a feature that would require businesses to fill out a form every time they spend more than $600.

that is devastating to small businesses and probably the first casualty of health care bill. you will see dozens of examples of this republicans will pick apart access of regulation, access of the law, challenging democrats to defend it i. guest: they could choose to provide money for the up irs and that says you cannot use this to monitor implementation of health care law. you could do the same thing with regulatory agencies. you could make it difficult for the administration to get money to do planning for the future stages of the health care bill. you will see a push back by the administration to try to make the case that there are good things happening and helpful to people with the implementation of the health care bill on things like banning prohibitions on using pre-existing conditions to keep from providing insurance or letting parents keep their

young adult children on their plan until age 26. you will see the white house tried to make a more effective case that there are good things about this law that you don't want to see repealed. host: susan page and gayle ross chaddock. a note to steve -- if msnbc does not realistic keith olberman, could we see him on the cspan staff? [laughter] democrats' line is next. caller: i see the midterm election quite differently. i see it as the last hurrah of white supremacy. the reason why i say that -- throughout this whole campaign and everything, you never saw black faces sitting in any of these chairs on any of these interviews on c-span. even today. i listened to the candidates

that one and they are coming to me, very hard core segregationists. i might be off base but i have been watching this and i am a political junkie. you can look at the tea party and you say the liberals went for the republicans, some of the statistics say 50% of white voters went for republicans. this is nothing new in america. america has always been a rock solid white supremacist country. we know that in the next 50 years, the skin color will be a brown and black. this is the last hurrah for it. you never see these candidates with anybody black, poor, sick, military. what message or they sending? get say the democrats don't a pretty democrats to get but the democrats came up against

that old ugly face of white supremacy barry of host: we elected an african-american president and president george w. bush, as in his book what a historic milestone was for the u.s. caller: wow! you may have elected a black president but look around and you you see with him. guest: i would disagree with that caller. we elected a black president and his popularity and job approval rating are as good as or better than bill clinton at this point, or ronald reagan. republicans will have the first two african american members of their house caucus with the new congress that is the first set jc watts left congress for the members of congress that their best for the african-american members of congress because they come from largely liberal and minority districts. they read this of the wave that hurt other democrats.

-- they resisted the wave that hurt other democrats. it is true there are less african-americans than 2000 aids. they turned out stronger when obama was on the ballot. we think barack obama will be on the ballot in two years and that may encourage african-american participation to increase again. guest: there are as many as 14 very credible house candidates who are black republicans. it is not just tokenism and more. this is a strong recruiting area for republicans. i think there are some strong candidates prepare host: your earlier point about the health care bill, one dealer says that every time congress wants to repeal part of the health care bill, someone should operate on the floor people who are helped by the bill. guest: i think that is exactly what we will see but not on the floor. we will see the case being made that some of the changes that have resulted from the health care bill are helping people there will be an effort to

address the concern that people have about what will happen to their plan and their premium costs. these are big concerns that people had. the administration did not succeed in putting them to rest but they will have time to make their case again. we thought the health-care battle was over or settle for a time when it was signed in march but it is clear we will continue to debate this for the foreseeable future. host: he referred to that in his opening remarks saying he did not one re-litigate the past. guest: that will never happen because the republicans from the get go were focused and dismantling that bill. the number of pledges that were signed in this campaign at local level in the virginia fifth district, the republican who won hurt, ended up having to sign a plan put together by the

six tea party candidates who lost in the primary, committing him not just to repeal the health care but to take in every opportunity that existed tode- fund it. the battle lines are drawn on this one pair of host: obama's internet army motivated young people and would stick around to help him govern. today, what happens to net roots? two years ago, many people really believed that the on-line activists who helped elect barack obama would stick around and support him as he pushed through a sweeping list of progressive measures parent guest: it is hard to get these first-time voters back to the polls when you don't have the excitement of a presidential race. the midterm electorate is much smaller and different, older and more white than the electorate in a presidential year.

the other thing that happened is that there is disappointment with president obama armonk young peopl and a monthw let liberals. -- and among liberals. there was disappointment in the war and he has not yet succeeded in a repeal"don't ask, don't tell." there is a little sense of disappointment. i wonder about how much affect the rally on the mall could have had. i think die was cast with those of voters. maybe there were just been chanted. -- madrid they were j -- maybe they were disenchanted. caller: our you doing this morning? can you hear me? if i want to ask the lady ies they thought the democrats got lucky on this election.

if there would have been better candidates for colorado, delaware, and in nevada if those candidates to macy and as if they could have presented better candidates. and the republicans probably would have won those states, too. host: susan page? guest: did the republicans help -- did the tea party help the republicans or hurt them? mike castle lawsuit kristi the dollar in the primary. -- mike castle lost to christianne o'donnell and the primary in delaware. on the other hand, the argument that the tea party people make

is that they provided a lot of the excitement that generated candidates and issues and drove the electorate in places you might not have expected like ohio and pennsylvania and connecticut and help republican candidates generally part of the debate now is what was the effect of the tea party and a big part of the debate is, is the tea party going to be able to sustain itself in terms of support from people as the economy gets better and in terms of organization. ? tea party people i interviewed take pride in the fact that they don't have a national spokesman. they don't have a national organization. it is a loose network of local groups. that is a difficult thing to sustain as a national political movement for host: republican line, good morning. caller: thank you for cspan. i would like to comment on barack obama as message "his word emergency."

the message has been so negated. if you look a the time he speaks national, it is overwhelming by and president. if he would stop talking so negatively to one side of this electorate which is 75% of the electorate and try to bring some kind of bringing together a message of something positive about this country, that would be great. host: the interview points out that the president did say he might have come across as too shrill and the campaign trail there guest: it is difficult to distinguish between a president who is in full campaign mode and how the president believes the washington part of the criticism i am hearing of him is that he does not talk enough to capitol hill. mitch mcconnell did not have a

one-on-one meeting with him alone until july in the run-up to this election. if you're going to work with congress, the president seems more like lyndon johnson. he has regular phone contact with members on both sides of the aisle. you cannot be as isolated as this president has been or delegate to others. this is something he has to take on directly. host: senator tom daschle writes about this. he says to talk to the president and listen and he did not have the meetings -- and of meetings with president bush when he was the democratic leader. he said this president should renew the practice of having an informal discussions and leaders of the camp david. he said to throw a dinner party [laughter] guest: president obama did not leave need a relationship with the republican party had big majorities in the house and senate. his effort was to appeal of a moderate republican or two like

olympia snowe of maine to get a by pa as antina to his initiatives. that has changed now. he has to have a relationship with the man who will be speaker, john boehner, and the closer one with the republican caucus in the senate. we think there will have 53 democrats and two independents in the senate. that kind of margin means that you made relationships which he was not required to exercise his first two years in office. host: the election could derail u.s. efforts to mend ties with russia. forging a friendly relations with the kremlin, obama meets congress to sign off on three major policy changes -- and arms control treaty that would reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections, a civilian nuclear agreement to provide greater cooperation, and the repeal of the cold war era trade restrictions on russia allowing them to w join theto.

if this doesn't happen, prime minister put to good use thisp --utin could be skeptical about this president a guest: darren this is a huge issue. i wonder if they will resolve this and a lame duck session. there has been a long discussion going on a specially withjohn kyle on the senate side that could produce a compromise that senate republicans could follow at least to get the arms agreement through. i think it will be much there iy you're quite right, there is no room for that sort of language. with regards to the implications of the midterm elections -- there is a 5.5% swing to republicans. president-elect and was elected with a healthy majority. there was a 7.5% is willing to

republicans. does this mean that barack obama is a one-term president? guest: history would say this is not determinant of what will happen in two years. think about president clinton who lost the house and senate in 1994 and came back in 1996 to win the release and is true of ronald reagan in 1982. he suffered a big losses in congress on the house side and came back and won a big reelection campaign. two years later. it does not mean that barack obama is definitely going to win in two years. you have to see an improvement in the economy and some other things to happen, his connection with american voters being rebuilt. this is -- history would say this does not indicate what will happen in two years. guest: harry truman, a massive republican surge in his first midterm election and he came roaring back by spending two

years describing them as a do nothing congress. there was some speculation among house democrats that the president might want this kind of switch to the republicans so he has an enemy and he does not have to go into 2012 just saying that we had democrats controlling both ends of pennsylvania avenue and could not solve jobs. at least you can say that it is john major's fault. john boehner this fall. guest: you have patterns going both ways host: what would hillary do? this is about the 3:00 a.m. phone call from the 2008 campaign for it would employment have been lower under hillary clinton? back then, the hillary clinton populist appeal to white middle- class voters was not enough to overcome obama's and you adjustth vote but clinton's

values were the ones that switch republicans on tuesday. guest: i ran into many people and strong democratic sections of western pennsylvania. i was writing a profile of man's a closet at ask them about -- i was writing a profile of nancy pelosi and i asked them about her. "did hillary clinton further warm feelings about her still. she met a ridge to working-class democrats. guest: if whoever was the democratic president had to urgent jobs and set of health care as the big initiative on which the administration was so focused for two years, with the outcome of this election have been different? democrats may feel the health care bill is worth it and that even though it was difficult but

over a long haul, it is a valuable pretty clearly cost them. it diverted attention from my focus on the economy when that was the issue that americans were most concerned about host: did one race surprise you to stay guest:? i'm surprised that harry reid won so easily. i came back thinking that either of those candidates could have one variant of of the more so disliked by big parts of the nevada electorate. that surprised me. guest: i thought it p tomeriello would pull it out in a5 virginia with some of the most marvelous campaigning with splendid, a a hilariousdds. he is someone who came out of that raise a loser but certainly has a very strong career ahead

in democratic ranks where he has achieved near god-like status is working in a conservative status and fiercely defending all the president's programs even the things that were unpopular party. host: we conclude with the comments of george orwell, the democrats in denial there . when senator mcconnell had 41 votes, he had the money needed them. with 46 senators, he will always have 41 votes when he really wants them are speculation about whether president obama will change course is still real. whether he adheres to his agenda of relentless expansion to a government like cap and trade and rewards for democratic constituencies like stimulating the economy with trickle-down government spending that sustains a unionized public importeemployers.

guest: that is an interesting argument. one of the most interesting interviews i had after the election was with grover norquist. i asked what he would expect? did he expect solid gridlock? he said it is great. he said think of the things that won't happen and the new regulations that will not be implemented and the new spending plan that will not come to pass. we are used to thinking about and achieving met -- administration that legislates but we're about to see one that will unravel a whole different landscape. guest: the white house will be different next year. has been on offense two years with passing big problems to rescue the economy from a potential depression. they will go totally on defense. they will try to protect the health care bill to avoid rollbacks.

i think there is no expectation on the part of the administration that they will be able to get big swings through congress now. host: what is next for steny hoyer may be in a race for the house democratic whip? guest: my assumption is that everybody goes down a step in the latter. nancy pelosi becomes the minority leader and steny hoyer becomes the web. what would be the next step down? he is running for whip but these are politicians who have worked together for years so i assume there will be some adjustments. steny hoyer is backed by some of the more moderate democrats who lost a big last tuesday. some of his support has been eroded. guest: ed markey is supporting him and that says that we cannot afford the democrats to spend

two years on one side of the spectrum and more. we have to have balance and that is what nancy pelosi and steny hoyer provided regardless of how she was demonize. it was a balanced partnership. there are progressive democrats who don't want to see them lose that. guest: the elections and -- and then began again. >> our political coverage continues with a look at voting patterns from election 2010. this is about 20 minutes. host:. we want to mention a service -- a survey director. bagger joining us. we will dig into some of the numbers but let's begin with the broad overview. what the headlines from

tuesday's election and what did the voters tell guest: you? it was a mixed message. . the expression of the voters' frustration with government in washington, we did not get a ear message out of the voters as to what specifically to do with the big issues that are on the plate going forward. this election was determined largely by a strong turnout among conservative. the exit polls showed that the percentage of the electorate was conservative and up to 41% compared wit 32% four years ago ands dependent swung against the democratic party voting almost 6-4 against them which is a reversal of what was four years ago. on the specific question such as what to do about health care, there was no majority for a. and a thing only 49% said health-care should

be overturned. you had about 1/3 saying it should be expanded. there is a mixed set of messages coming out of republicans as to whether to deal with something like the deficit first or tax. this es. host: let's look at the numbers. voting by gender between male, female, democrats and republicans -- you can see that self-identified democrats, the male population, 42% of them voted democrats, 50% -- 56% of the men voted for republicans. the women as to the republicans by 1% guest: 1 story is that republicans did better among women than they have done and a long, long time. the gender gap began around 1980 with thest ronald reagan election.

consistently since then, women have been more supportive of the democric party than man. this is an election in which you still see that gender gap but because the democrats could only get an even split among women, they got plastered overall because men supported republican so heavily guarded host: we also have a broken down by a sperry between 18-29, 57% voted for democrats and only 40% for republicans. in the three higher age categories, republicans got the edge and a significant edge among the elderly, almost 21 percentage points of tse over the age of 65 voting for republicans. guest: we have seen all year in the polls that all americans 65 and older have spent the most

rigidly support of obama -- the obama presidency. they are big part of the tea party movement and they turned out larger numbers and get a big share of their boat to the reblicans. it is also interesting that young people continue to be the democratic party's best age group. this has its roots not in the obama election but all it back to 2004 when voters 18-29 war k johnerry's best age group. it was exaggerated to some degree in 2006 and 2008. more young people but a republican this time than had been the case two or four years ago. a majority of them still when republican. a majority of them went for democrats. the democrats looking ahead a few years, the fact that young

people seem be sticking with them even though they have been hurt by the recession is a positive sign. host: this is courtesy of" mother jones." non-voters into as an aide swung 56% in favor of the republicans, ands dependent swung toward the republic -- ands pendant swung toward republica -- independents swung toward republicans and rural voters and caplets -- and catholics as well. guest: catholics have been a swing constituency. democrats and republicans have been battling over them. if you look at why catholics, they have been eier marginally republican or more so in elections. in 2004, george w. bush made a calculated appeal to that

constituency catholics are a very diverse and heterogeneous group. you have a growing share of the catholic vote is latino and they have continued to support democratic candidates. that help them somewhat among the overall catholic votes from host: we will get to your phone calls and a moment and you numbers are on the bottom of your screen. a lot intoheugh center -- a link p to theugh centre it -- a lead to thepugh center is available on our website c- span.org,.

we might have had cautious words from mcconnell and john boehner. guest: one of the most interesting findings is the fact that both parties have negative evaluations. if people were asked if they have an unfavorable opinion of both parties, over 50% of both parties said they have a negative impression of republicans and democrats this was an election that said we don't like the way things are going in washington bird we would like to see things change. it as to themudle in terms of who has power in the new congress and what they can do about it for it looks like it will be a hard electorate to satisfy given the divisions we say. one other way to look at this is illustrated in ve interesting chart about the trends and exit polls about "was in the new york times today."

if you look at the democrats and republicans and liberals and conservatives, you can see the start degree of polarization and the voting. there was a wider gap between the votes of democrats and republicans consisteny voted for candidates of their own parties and we have seen in any election since exit polling was tracked. the same is true for liberals and conservatives. that degree of polarization as to the difficulty that members of congress will have an bring the country together. host: you have gone through many numbers. what surprised you the most? guest: i was expecting that conservatives would turn out at a high level in this election. i think i was surprised by the degree. i was some spots surprised by the 40% or so that said they agreed with the tea party. that is not the whole story for the exit poll also showed that only 22% saithey were voting

to send a message in favor of the tea party but this political movement which has been in the news all year really registered with many of the people who showed up. host: 20,000 voters who showed 2010.2008 did not vote i guest: that's right. it was a very different group of people who were more conservative, more reblican and older garden host: democrat line from greenville, south carolina paria. caller: good morning, cspan. i love your program. i am kind of baffled by people

who did not have help from the obama administration. some would not have made it, republicans and democrats. the stimulus money goes to the states and cities. at would not have had. a happened. i want to see how the unemployed voted. guest: that question has come up a fair amount. it is very difficult to get a good reading of it. we do know that a significant minority if not about half of households in this country have been affected by layoffs or cutbacks in hours. the reach of the recession has been a very broad. the exit polls included a question that asked if someone in your household had been laid off during the past year. among at group, the vote was fairly evenly divided,

democratic and republican. many of the people who had been hurt by this recession perhaps unlike in the past when people the were damaged by the economy would vote democratic, this was a situation where the democrats are in charge said they will have to take the responsibility. host: marjorie connally brought down the numbers in ""the new york times." let me go through the headlines. groups that voted for the democrats, gays and lesbians, between the ages of 18-29, men between 18-29, african- americans, hispanic and asians. groups won by the republicans, women, men, all of those between the age of 30-44 and senior citizens, whites in the south and all whites voting heavily for the gop. guest: the southern vote s quite interesting. many of the congressional losses that the democra suffered

occurred in the south partly because the 2008 democratic surge that obama brought with them allow the democrats to recapture some of those moderate to conservative southern seats. you have a lot of people in district or maybe obama won by only a little bit or maybe he did not win but the democrats were able to field a good candidate. most of those guys got wiped out. it was most of those members and you can see it in the exit polls. republicans and democrats split among white southerners and that was larger than it has been in exit poll history. host: 42% of registered voters cast their vote on tuesday. independent line, good morning. caller: i wanted to ask the gentleman today, what certain

areas do you go? do you go into low income areas? fr what i see on television, i don't think that you go to all different types of areas. is it based on income, color, minorities? i don't think you go in the areas where it is low income or minorities or hispanic or african-american guest: let's make a distinction between the telephone service that most of the news organizations to the pugh research center conducts and the exit poll. the polls that we do prior to the election call telephone numbers all over the country. we include cell phone spread oneselon call for every two land line calls for the celtics make sure that we cover areas

where you have many younger people, people who are renters rather than homeowners, african- americans, hispanics and other lower income groups that a less likely to have a landline .hone ver there is an effort made to cover all kinds of precincts including lower in calm ones and those that have concentrations of latino voters are african- americans. there's an effort to provide a raom sampling of all possible precincts'. what happens is that elections as we have been talking about get determine the buyer who shows up and the polls are pretty clear that the lower income voters did not turn out in very great numbers. that is always the case elections but it is especially true in off-year elections like this one. african-american turn out on the other hand looked to have been only down slightly from four

years ago. it was down a good bit from two years ago but that is understandable, perhaps. latino turnout is hard to gauge but it, too, was probably flat it may have been up in some states where there were tea party races like nevada and california host: our guest is a former professor at george mason university and virginia commonwealth universy. he has co-authored four books on polling and public policy. he is the director of survey research at the pew research center. those over age of 65 voted overwhelmingly for republicans. what percentage of the 65 and older voters turned out in this election? do you have that number? guest: we don't have an actual turnaround number. " the new york times percentage for voters 65 and older is 35% agreed that is not the turnout. that is the proportion of the

total electorate that was in thatge group. that is higher than their share in the public. they turned out at a higher rate thavoters under that age. that is the key in the election. host: charlotte, north carolina, republican line, good morning. caller: there was an article this morning on american. thinkercom which alluded to the awakening of the giant in the american electorate. i am a political scientist as well and i know where youre going wi your data. i would like to think that we are americans now. we need to get past the black, the white, the hispanic, the day or whatever and think as americans. this past election has been a great educational experience for the american electorate. i want to get your take if you think it is part of a new

awakening where americans are starting to examine the foundations of what our country was built on and a implementation of other politil ideologies and of this is somewhat of a conflict of the two. if you tnk that the great awakening is happening now where the american public is starting to become aware of the two different ideologies that are going on in the united states and that is why we are starting to see the awakening of the giant, the tea party independent position is coming out they are exerting their voting preferences. the piece is on line on the american. thinkercom. it was an article about the awakening of a sleeping giant and how throughout our history, we awaken to the great cause of sobor whites, world war ii or

whenever. the american public as kind of ne back to sleep but will they stay awake this time to continue what they have started on the recapture of the american fundamental dream of how we were found to host: it. thk you for sharing guest: there is a lot to disentangle. those of us to study public opinion have always been struck by the fact that american politics seems to swing back and forth between two very fundamental but in some was contradictory american values. a lot of what makes america you make is the fact that we have had a strong commitment in this country to opportunity. with that, has come lited government, freedom to pursue your dreams, to go out and take risks and live with the consequences.

we also have had a strong equipment -- commitment to equality and economic opportunity, equali of economic opportunity as well much of the debate in the last few years in this country has been over which of the two poles of this divide should be preeminent at one time in 2006 and 2008, the focus on quality waparamount. this year it was more a focus on freedom and individualism i don't see this as an awakening of one side or another it is more a part of a characteristic pendulum swing in american politicshat seems to accompany national conditions. i cannot prove that with the polling data but that has been our history. given the demographic changes that are happening in the country, i have a feeling that there is no giant that is being awakened and the other side will go away.

i don't see that happening. host: you handle all the polling for the pew center varia. caller: thank you for taking my call. i live and a rich state. --i'm a democrat leaving living in a red states. there were questions on the ballot. there are questions that actually skewed the voting public. an aide read state is growing in number is in the coup plots clamber it the question that prejudices' peoplfomany of us did not bother to vote because we knew there was no point. is there any poll that is taken to reflect the people who just refused to vote? guest: yes, as i mentioned to a

previous caller, we conduct our service with the general public and not just with voters. we ask a random sample of everyone 18 years of age and older many questions about where they think the country should be going, where it is, what they think about issues including health care reform. st week, we actually posted on our website, go to pew. researchorg, parknon de of- voters. these are people we did not think would show up to about this last week and a comparison with that. what we find is a confirmation of some of what you are saying. many othe people who don't show up are more liberal, more democratic, they were supportive of the health care reform packagethey are much more

opposed to continuing the bush tax cuts for all income groups. you would have had a very different outcome on electn day of everybody in the country had showed uto vote. you can see a bit of why this would be if you take a look at the. that piece 42% of the public turned out to vote. that means the majority of americans did not vote last week. their voices were not heard or they were heard by not being there. host: on your web site, there are many stories. a clear rejection of the status quo, no consensus about future policies. republicans win big despite the party's low favorability. one of our viewers said the republicans will be on a short leash if they do not do what we sent them to do perry will replace them. is that simple.

guest: you have ample evidence and the paul and from history looking back at the 1995 congressional session. you can go back to other congresses and you can make a change by voting one way or another. . caller: i only been falling c-

span since 1984. i am a longtime reviewer and i really appreciate the quality of what you have done. i am sure you hear this all the time. scott, out here in california, i am about 80 miles north of los angeles, slightly below santa barbara. there is an interesting -- i am a political junkie. there is an interesting atmosphere of extreme fear. i am a good financial sector wage and. not so much that i have suffered but people are actually terrified. i have never seen more for sale signs for property, for cars.

you can taste of beer out here. i give that as input to what you do. i really do not have a question% -- per se. i was interested in our presidents commentary after the election. there are a lot of things going on, but out here in california, there is a lot of attention. i just want to communicate that for your discussion and so forth. once again, c-span, thank you very much for what you do. one of the first things that i

bought on the internet was a c- span cup. host: and you still have that? caller: yes, i do. host: it is probably a collector's item. this is something of one share with you from the los angeles times. it says that the benefit of fund is broke. caller: yes, sir. that is part of the fear. california has gone broke. and we are the seventh largest economy on the planet and we are broke. the federal was serving $600 billion of paper, that is all that it is. you can print as much as you want but that is what is. what i am choosing to do financially is by physical

assets. why should i hold money in a bank account or anything else, because it is all going south. guest: it should give everyone a shiver to think that california is on the living -- leading edge. but in this election, unlike another bunch of states having financial trouble, california did not decisively rejected democrats. your democratic statewide candidates won by comfortable margins, even more than polls indicated. the exit poll indicated that

barack obama has majority approval on like most days. -- unlike most days. you have simultaneously this uneasiness with what is going on, the circumstances been mentioned that we all know about financial troubles there, and yet a democrat was elected, governor and a democratic senator was sent back to washington. it is hard to know what to make of that message. one factor that i think is interesting is the latino vote up somewhat from previous elections, up to 22% of the electorate was latino. they voted strongly democratic. i am not sure what election message to take away. >> he says that there is this

point. when has the economy ever been restored? pat joining us from jacksonville, florida on our lines with republicans. caller: i always enjoy your show is and your guests coming on. i am calling from florida. you mentioned the latino vote which came up for democrats. i am seeing very little reporting about the fact that rick scott ran on his major issues, he would bring arizona lost to florida. he had the opposition of all 15 papers in florida. the chamber of commerce opposed him. every group you can think of. he fought a bruising battle with a very popular republican guy who wanted the job. the rnc fought him. he be a popular theme of democratic candidate.

no one is saying what it -- how amazing it is what he did. illegal immigration is an issue that pollster shy away. i will tell you, my opinion of california, meg whitman was crowned in h one be the set queen. -- visa queen. wide the republican national committee thought either of those women could be elected is beyond me. republicans, job outsourcing, and using the vises to take jobs away from americans. and thank you for making -- let me make a comment. host: how well rick scott lead following the early clues? this is at the miami herald.

guest: very good questions and comments about florida. the hispanic community is more conservative. while that might not have been a surprise the marco rubio received a majority of the hispanic vote there, around 55%, and his cuban-american, what surprised the lot of people was that rick scott was able to get half of the hispanic vote there. you have a very conservative hispanic electorate that came out. florida, because of the division of the vote with kendrick meek and charlie crist staying on, ended up with a fighting

situation. he might that have had a solid victory -- he might not have had such a solid victory. host: credit from georgia, welcome to "washington journal." you're calling on the democratic line. caller: i love to hear the pundits talk about the vacuum that talk radio has, it has nothing to do with. the democrats do not have an equal. so when you hear rush limbaugh to clear barack obama's presidency of failure, it has a lot to do with it. guest: hard to say whether -- i cannot give you polling evidence on this. i do know in 1994, which was

the first be election in which talk radio figured heavily, we were able to find some evidence that talk radio had helped at least to energize the conservative and republican base. it may be doing that as well. you're right -- there is no exact alternative to it on the democratic side. what i hear from a lot of people on the democratic side is that the democrats do not have consistent messaging this year, even from their own candidates and terms of defense of the things that congress had done. in public opinion, the public as attitudes and have a point of view, but leadership matters. unless you have a consistent message that says what we have done is good and we're going to defend it, you may not have

public opinion following you. the republicans and conservatives have had the benefit from the very beginning of consistent message, they did not like what obama stood for or what he was going to do. it is easier for them to build their majority on questions where people may be undecided and ambivalent. and a lot of issues are just that. host: it can create a robust discussion on our twitter page. this sentiment is pretty typical of what has been happening since the earlier caller about the fed. billions of dollars of paper money, as he called it. that sentiment was prevalent last tuesday as well. guest: there was an interesting

finding in the exit polls. the question of who is to blame for the economic troubles of the country, the choices offered were barack obama, george w. bush, or bankers. only a small minority. bankers. i cannot remember if it was 60%, but a small but ciardi of people who pick the bankers voted republican -- if it was 16%, but a small majority of people who picked the bankers noted republicans. the stereotype has been that the republican party was supportive of the banks and wall street. but the democratic party has now come to be associated with those policies, in part because of much of the bailout of the bank's implemented on their watch. and under george w. bush. they are now holding the responsibility for it in barack

obama is being held accountable, or a lot of people are blaming him for keeping people who have to close ties to wall street close at hand. host: joining us from new jersey, democrats voting for the democrats, 92% of the time. 2% of the republicans vote for a democrat, 95% voting for republican candidates. did you have the independent vote. 38% voting for a democrat, 56% for a republican. go-ahead. caller: we need to understand that this method thismyth, the ideologies that soon to be treating project -- driving the country at the extreme, it is really put a stranglehold on our

whole political system. and the only ideology there really counts is the ideology that -- of globalization. which brings me to my next point, the only color that matters is green. that has been systematic evaluation of the dollar is going to continue. it is setting up the corporations for a capacity to continue developing their economies overseas. we need to understand that the only ideology that matters is globalization. all this talk about politics, and your guest before and the speaker in here, and what ever you read it on the news in tv about the gridlock being created by this myth of

ideology, it is saying that our government is in gridlock and completely irrelevant. it c-span really wants to do a service for this country, let's focus on the only ideology that matters, which is globalization, the devaluation of the dollar, and honestly communicate to the american people that our way of living is going to be brought down, that inflation is going to be giving us a double whammy, and i doubt very much if there is going to be any tax relief. and we're going to have double digits because the whole point is to bring the whole cost of living and the lifestyle down to spread globalization. guest: the callers point this

timely in this respect. that president has embarked on a lengthy overseas mission to a number of important trading partners. i think that while post-mortem on the election like today will continue for a while until we talk about washington in the next term, some of the conversation will shift to america's role in the world in terms of its trade. one of the things that the caller said, if i understood it correctly, is that trade is actually an issue that survives both parties constituents. you do not have a treat -- a free-trade party and a non-free- trade party. this is an issue that we at the pure research center have been tracking. there have been interesting polls on it and we will take another close look at it this week. keep your eyes peeled for that.

host: with reference to the treasury secretary in the clan administration, this view from our twitter page. the last call, the republican line. caller: thank you for taking my call. you made a really good point about the electorate. out here in virginia, i think the slogan that the people of the government is really true. and congress is a level of management that we have in place to do the running of the organization, the country itself. our tax dollars are going toward and bailing out of management program that overspins -- over spends.

the electorate will stay attentive because of things like continual government hiring and spending, the tax level but we provide to bail out the deficit. every year. and the loans that we're taking are causing us break concern. guest: the color reflects a lot of the frustration in the country with what has happened over the last two years. it'd been a brutal time with our economy, not liking the results of the congress of the president has achieved, or the way they went about doing business this year. that has been part of the frustration and we will just have to see where it goes from here. host: scott peters is a research director with the pwe research

center. thank you for sharing us your perspective on the midterm elections. >> our political coverage continues with a discussion about the results of the 2010 midterm elections and how they affect president obama's policy agenda. this portion is little over an hour. >> welcome to the 2010 cq, roll- call selection conference. congressional quarterly, as many of you may know, has been holding this conference for just about two decades every two years. usually it happens the thursday after election day. it is an opportunity for people in washington and around the

television viewing area o, when- span covers us as they are doing today, to take stock of the results from the elections and get a first look, first comprehensive look at the new congress, the incoming class, and the changes under way in the house and the >> it is terrific to see you all here. we could not be more proud to be here today because this is the first election impact conference with the newly combined cq carroll call group. i would like to start off by asking people to put their cell phones