encouraging dialogue between north and south korea. the context of that dialogue matters, and there are still things that north korea must do to make it clear that that kind of dialogue would be productive. >> what about the statement that the north koreans put out over the weekend? south koreans should open their hearts, but there were a number of measures that they thought could open up the atmosphere, including opening up the border crossings, tours of the industrial complex, putting red- cross monitors at the border. are those the kinds of steps that you think could improve the atmosphere and lead to direct dialogue? >> first and foremost, if north korea makes a public pledge not to attack south korea or undertake further provocations,

that would be a significant step to improve them are meant and it would be one of many steps that north korea could take to convince south korea that the dialogue would be constructive. >> specifically in this -- you must have seen this statement that the north koreans put out. how do you view that statement? is it moving in the right direction? >> i understand that. we went through this last year. it was a provocative stage. we are now in the charm stage. but the charm stage has to be followed up with a real demonstration that north korea is prepared for sustained and constructive dialogue. so saying the right thing is helpful. but it is really what north korea demonstrates in its day-

to-day activities. >> the these are specific measures. >> i aniston that. >> so are you saying that, if they implement those measures, it would be a positive thing? >> encouraging north and south dialogue, but we certainly are in favor of that. but we understand why south korea might hesitate, having been attacked late last year and also in the sinking of a ship. and i think south korea is looking for clear demonstrations that north korea -- that the provocations that have been inflicted on south korea are a thing of the past. >> so the steps would be cleared? >> i am not saying that -- we will know it when we see it. >> india. >> you have already had several questions on india.

>> indian politicians have been sending billions of dollars in the form of indian rupees overseas. the indian government has decided to open at least eight offices overseas, including in the u.s.. you have an idea of how to get that in him black money politicians out of india? [laughter] >> sorry. >> are you aware of this new office opening in the u.s.? >> i am not aware of any black market boxes being open in the u.s.. thank you. >> president obama led a moment of silence today to honor those killed in the injured in saturday's -- those killed and injured in saturday's shooting in arizona. it will be followed by remarks

from arizona's governor gender war. after that, comments by president obama on the shootings. >> thank you very much, mr. president, mr. vice president. you have honored me and my family by giving me an opportunity to serve you and to serve our nation. >> with more than 80 appearances by william daley and more than 100 by gene sperling, you can use the c-span 2 library to learn more about the newest additions to the obama administration. it is washington your way. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2010] >> president obama led a moment of silence for the victims of the shootings in arizona.

[bell ringing]

>> the supreme court also paused for a moment of silence. judge john role served in arizona. chief justice john roberts called him a dedicated member of the federal judiciary.

>> help us move from this dark

place to a place of sunshine. bless those who serve this nation. keep them safe. more than anything, and god, we asked to help keep our hearts purer print we ask this and all blessings in the name of those who come before us. amen. >> now remarks from arizona

governor general or on the tucson shootings that killed six and wounded 13, including rep get real difference -- including representative gabriella giffords. this is about 15 minutes. [applause]

>> thank you. thank you all. and good afternoon. speaker adams, president

pierce, honorable senators and representatives of the centennial legislature, chief justice burch, and justices of the supreme court, constitutional officers, tribal leaders, honored guests, and my fellow arizonans. i had intended to deliver a state of the state address to you all today. remarks that an exciting and solid plan for job creation, education, and tax reform. and i will deliver the plan to you. but not now. not today. tragedy and terror some time come from the shadows and steel are joined and take away our peace. that happened on saturday. a gunman took away people we and

outstanding public servants, like the united states district roll.john and m. he had just come from the light of a darkness -- the images come from the light of a catholic mass and enter the darkness of a madman. gabby giffords is my good friend. this past week's events have caused all this to reflect on many things, including how we respond to those terrible events. first, our response to this tragedy must be led by prayer and comfort for the victims and their families. so please join me in a moment of silence as we pray for all of those we have lost, for the injured and those who are suffering.

>> thank you. and with our faith in their courage tightly in place, we will step forward from this chamber dedicated to do the lord's work, continue our service to the public. one year ago, in this very place, i told you i would serve beside you, proud to serve the people of arizona. i said then that public servants -- public service is acting not in personal interest, but on behalf of others. i ask you to join me in the field.

gabby giffords did join me in the field, knowing that when our proper service ended, we would be judged less by what we achieved by by what we over -- we would be judged less by what we achieved and more by what we overcame. let me take a moment to recognize the act of extraordinary arizonans who responded with professionalism and save lives, law enforcement, emergency responders, the tucson medical community, and the staff at the university medical center. daniel hernandez, a university of arizona junior showed no fear

in the face of gunfire. his quick action in going to saved her life. i will ask him to stand here and receive a kit -- receive the thank you of a very grateful state. daniel. [applause]

>> it was a sunny saturday at the supermarket in northwest tucson. it was a picture what our country is all about, public servants doing their duty, citizens, old and young, coming to hear, coming to participate in the beauty of our government and action. -- government inaction. we lost someone else on saturday -- government in actioni. we lost someone else on saturday who was just elected to her student council. she was hoping to be a positive part of the future of america. and she has become just that. she loved baseball. she was the only girl on her little league baseball team. and she loved to where red white and blue -- red, white, and blue. i should tell you that christina was born on september 11, 2001.

she thought of her birthday as a day of hope. a time to find good news in america. as her mother said, her light shines on a less today. saturday's events were not just an attack on those individuals we loved and lost, but an assault on our constitutional republic, on our democracy, on all we treasured and all hold dear as citizens and public servants. arizonan is in pain, yes. our grief is profound. we are yet in the first hour of our sorrow. but we have not been brought down.

we will never be brought down. [applause] >> in fact, we have been lifted up by america's thoughts and prayers and we're deeply grateful for them. arizona, like all of america, has been through difficult times before. but those times have united us and made us stronger, more enduring.

let those of us who serve our state and country do so in a way that honors those that we have lost. our meetings on sunny days will not and. end,.ll not an -- will not end. i believe that arizona will rise on wings like eagles. we will run and not get weary. we will walk and not clear week. so why ask for your help and your continued prayers as we step from here and died this great state with courage and devotion. may god bless all the victims and their families and those suffering from saturday's tragedy. may god bless those who serve us in the cause of freedom and

justice. may he bless you and your families and the great state of arizona. and may god always bless and protect the united states of america. thank you. [applause]

>> members of a joint committee se as scored the kur hon. governor from the chambers. thank you. [applause] [applause]

>> president obama spoke with reporters about the shooting in tucson ariz. -- tucson, arizona. those words came after meeting with the french president nicolas sarkozy. they also discussed the economy and counter terrorism. this is about 15 minutes. >> i am very grateful to have my dear friend nicolas sarkozy here. i think he has agreed that, at the top, just want to make a few comments about the situation in tucson, arizona. obviously, all of us are still grieving and in shock from the tragedy that took place. gabby giffords and others are still fighting to recover. families are still absorbing the enormity of their losses.

we have a criminal investigation that is ongoing. and charges will no doubt be brought against the perpetrator of this famouheinous crime. i think it is important to also focus, though, on the extraordinary courage that was shown during the course of these events. a 20-year-old college student ran into the line of fire to rescue his boss. she was a wounded woman who hoped secure the ammunition that might have caused even more damage. the citizens to wrestle down the gunman. that speaks to the best of america, even in the face of such mindless violence.

in the coming days, we will have a lot of time to reflect. right now, the main thing we're doing is to offer our thoughts and prayers to those who have been impacted, making sure that we are doing it together and pulling together as a country. as president of the united states, and also as a father, obviously, i'm spending a lot of time just thinking about families and reaching out to them. now, i want to say to nicholas that want to offer my condolences to his countrymen as well. they recently had two french niger.ns kidnapped in the shar it was a the terrorism that we share. this is one more area where corp. with bridget were

cooperation with the united states is critical -- this is one more area where cooperation with the united states is critical. we have a friend in nicolas sarkozy and the french people. we have cooperated over the last several years in dealing with a global economic crisis, dealing with the challenges of terrorism, dealing with a range of geopolitical issues from the middle east to iran to afghanistan. i have always found him to be an outstanding partner and an outstanding friend to the american people as well as the leader on the world stage. we spent the initial part of this meeting discussing the g-8 and the g-20 agenda. both france and the united states and around the world, we are in the process of healing

and recovering from the disasterous recession we went through. but we're not where we want to be. to many people are still out of work. to many businesses still have problems getting financing. they're still too many balances in the world economy's that are inhibiting the prospects of growth. and our discussions with the french in the lead, both at the g-8 and the g-20 this year, we work together to make sure that we are as productive as possible and deliver the kinds of reforms and follow-through that will result in prosperity for peoples around the world. after this brief press appearance, we will be having lunch. during that time, we will be discussing issues in which there have been close collaboration. obviously, the french are one of

our strongest allies, nato allies. their key members of isaf. french troops have been sacrificing alongside americans in uniform in afghanistan and we are very grateful for the sacrifices. so we will be discussing our strategy there, coming off of the discussions we had in lisbon. we will also discuss issues like iran and the impact of sanctions currently on their nuclear program. i hope that we can resolve this issue diplomatically. we will be building on our shared resolve to ensure that we are not seeing nuclear-weapons in iran. we will discuss the middle east where he and i share a deep and abiding belief in the need for two states standing side-by- side for security. we will be discussing issues

like qatar where democracy is seeing some challenges. sudan, where demonstrations have taken place this weekend. outbreaks of violence could end up devastating the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. but there's also a prospect of a peaceful transition that could result in a better life for the people in both the north and the south of sudan. we will also be talking about lebanon where we are all deeply concerned with the special tribunal there and making sure that justice is appropriately served. i just want to say how much i appreciate not only his friendship, but also his leadership.

i also want to point out that the last time he and his wife carla were here, we sent them to ben's chili bowl. i cannot say that it will be on the menu here. the first lady is having lunch with carla while nicolas and i are having lunch. but i hope you'll find the hospitality outstanding nonetheless. again, we want to express their friendship to the french people and wish everyone in your country a happy new year. [speaking french] >> first of all, i want to say to the american people how deeply moved the french people have been at your loss and tragedy. >> [speaking french]

>> i also want to thank president obama for his expression of solidarity to the french people in light of the loss that we have felt by the cowardly killing of two young frenchman who were killed in a barbaric fashion by terrorists. >> [speaking french]

>> both of the u.s. and france are determined to stand firm as allies on the issue of terrorism. both of us believe that any show of weakness would be culpable. we have no choice but to go after these terrorists wherever they may be. >> [speaking french] >> we value -- when the fundamentals of those we cherish our challenge, they must combat. >> [speaking french] >> we spoke about the future of

the g-20. i said to him in very clear terms that we wish to work hand- in-hand, france and the u.s. > >> [speaking french] >> we are in the 21st century. and we need new ideas for this new century. with president obama, we are determined to come up with these new ideas for the greater benefit of the peoples of the world so that prosperity and stability of the world. >> [speaking french]

>> i have always been a great friend, a tremendous trend of the united states. i know how important a role the u.s. plays in the world, how important the u.s. dollar is as the world's number one currency, and, with barack obama, we are determined to propose new ideas to get things moving, both within the framework of the g-8 and the g- 20. >> [speaking french] >> and our teams will be working very hard together to come up with common positions on the issues that are of interest and which come within the limits of

the tree-20, such as the matter of currencies, of commodity prices, and all that needs to be done in order to reduce current imbalances. >> [speaking french] >> lastly, i want to thank barack obama, my host, for his show of leadership. and also point out that something has always struck me about him is the ability to get to the fundamentals, the route

causes of things. i appreciate his openness, the way he speaks very frankly about things with me, and i am convinced, ladies and gentleman, that, in 2011, we will be able to come up with a structural solution that will enable us to tackle the world's problems. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. thank you, everybody. >> we are in close consultations with the families will have suffered these losses, as well as governor brewer, a congressional leadership. there is no doubt that we will establish some mechanism, memorial, during the course of the next several days.

when we have that, we will announce it. but i think it will be important, i think, for the country as a whole and for the people of arizona, to feel that we are speaking directly to our sense of loss, but also speaking to our hopes for the future. and how, out of this tragedy, we can come together as a stronger nation. >> thank you, guys. >> good evening, we have new information to tell you about the mass shooting in tucson. >> congresswoman gabriella giffords is still able to communicate. doctors remain optimistic. there is on the legislation began its session under tight

security. the energy and lore -- gov. dan brewer stressed community and the suspect made his first appearance before a federal judge. >> eight of the victims, including the congresswoman, are still in the hospital tonight. doctors report no change in her condition. they say that is good news. sergio is like to give us the update. >> take a look behind me. there are still people out here showing support, not only for the congresswoman, but all of the other victims. doctors tell us that there are two people still in icu while others are still in serious, but good condition. they are optimistic that everyone will come out of this ok. >> after congresswoman deferreds, her doctors tell us they are concerned about brain swelling, but are cautiously optimistic because the swelling has not increased.

she is still in a medically induced, and being monitored very closely. >> the cat scans show that there's a progression of the swelling. we are not out of the woods yet. swelling can take three days or five days to maximize. but every day that goes by and we do not see an increase looks slightly more optimistic. >> doctors tell us the congresswoman is still responding to simple commands, like gripping hands and showing fingers. families of all the victims are doing as well as they can under the circumstances. the covers woman's closest friends and family have been -- the congresswoman's closest friends and family have been by her side. he tells us that the swelling has to be monitored for three days. the operation was on saturday. today is the second day. tomorrow will be the third day

where the swelling peace and then we will go from there. every day that the swelling stays down, that is another day that the doctors can be optimistic on the congresswoman's health. >> many have commented that they have been so transparent about what has been going on their. public press congress. they will not be doing it unless there are changes to her conditions. the next one is on wednesday. >> thank you. a lot of you have contacted us wanting to know how you can help, whether you can send some kind of a message. we want to let you know that the congresswoman's office has set up an e-mail account for well- wishers. we will give you that address tidbit is giffordswellwishes@gmail.com. her family has been asked that donations be made to the

community food bank of tucson where a fund has been set up. you can ask for the gabrielle giffords on your fund. you can also donate to the red cross. we have set up links for all of this information at kgun9.com. the suspect is being held without bail this evening in phoenix. jessica was in the courtroom and she tells us that loughner's first legal challenge was finding a lawyer who would agree to take his case. we are taking a look at the latest photograph that we have of the 22-year-old suspect. this is a booking photograph for loughner.d lee

>> i am at the federal courthouse where the suspect had his first in court appearance today. we cannot bring cameras inside, but we have sketches to show you. judge lawrence anderson read through the charges, including one count of attendeattempted assassination of the congresswomen, two counts of murder, and two counts of attempted murder. when loughner entered the room, he seemed quite and obedient. he is in u.s. marshal custody without bond until further notice. one of the more interesting things about this case is that the public defense attorney is using was told by the public defender's office in arizona that they actually went down a list of more than 100 public defenders and eliminated all of those who were not qualified to defend in a death penalty trial.

the rest of them actually declined to represent loughner in this case for various reasons. he will be represented by san diego public defender judy clarke. she is a high-profile public defender. she defended suspects like ted kosinski, smith who was accused of drowning her own children, and others. another thing to note is that the proceedings from here on out will not be arizona federal judges, but the the southern judge has been dismissed from this case. we are at the federal courthouse in phoenix. >> thank you. a military official today -- revealedhatlo

today that loughner was rejected for drug use. we have new disturbing details about the shooter, including a bizarre altar in his backyard that included a skull. tammy, the fbi was back at his house this afternoon. >> they certainly were. we are not exactly sure what they were doing there. but i can tell you that so many of our viewers want to know why? why would he allegedly do this? so did we. so we got our hands on court documents today as well as a really bizarre picture of the suppose a shrine in his backyard. they reveal some quite unnerving information. at the home of jared loughner, the fbi is still collecting evidence. this court complaint gives us a

better idea of what investigators found inside his home. there is a letter in a safe from the commerce woman in 2007, thinking him for attending any event. also, a letter signed a by loughner saying, "i planned deferreds." they found a shrine in his backyard with a skull and ceremonial candles. the next-door neighbors give us an opportunity to check out this shrine for ourselves. we took a look over the fence. as you can see, there is a lot of greenery. there is nothing too visible. but one thing that people agree on is that it is pretty bizarre. does any of it surprise you? >> not entirely. with someone who is as off

kilter as he seemed to be, it is hard to be surprised. >> former classmates are not too surprised about what is coming out about loughner. he once shouted out a question to the congresswoman at an event. he reportedly asked "what is government if courts have no meaning?" loughner did not like her answer and, ever since, he thought she was taken had something against her. someone close to the case says that, on the morning of the shooting, he tried to buy ammunition from a wal-mart store but was turned away and another wal-mart initially sold him the bullets. the "washington post" posted these e-mails written last summer. she writes, "he scared the living crap out of me. he is one of those people you see on the news after coming to class with an automatic weapon." do you think that come along the line, someone could have

noticed -- do you think that, along the line, someone could have noticed and done something? >> i do not know. i think once he was removed from pima and u.s. led is socially, i think that this were the turning point was. -- and was isolated socially, i think that is where the turning point was. " and "the wizard of oz" when he was in prison. this guy is off his rocker. >> i was looking at the picture of the school on the internet today. i noticed that it did not say how he took it or how. it seems as somebody climbed over that fence to get it.

>> it was taken by a "new york daily news" guy. how they got the photograph is unclear. from where we were standing in the neighbor's backyard, we could not see any of that. so how they got in there and how it went down, we do not know. but we do know that the neighbor next door saw pictures of that shrine. he agreed that it was really strange. >> thank you. president obama called for the country to pull together and support the congresswoman and the families of those killed. he also praised the heroes who tackle loughner. >> i think it is important for us to also focus on the extraordinary courage that was shown during the course of these events. a 20-year-old college student ran into the line of fire to rescue his boss, a wounded woman who helped secure the ammunition

that might have caused even more damage, the citizens who wrestled down the gunmen. part of what i think that speaks to is the best of america. >> president obama directed all thoughts and prayers to focus on tucson today before making those remarks. he led the country in a national moment of silence. those keeping watch at umc shared this symbolic moment. [drumbeat] >> the sound of the drum beat across the sky. calling for solidarity and for all together in front of university medical center. vigil candles burned with energy, symbolically bringing light to the darkness of this tragedy. was the driver stopped, others began to answer the call and

came to pray. thousands of miles away at the u.s. capitol, president obama and first lady michelle also united. bell ringing] >> then, at 9:00 a.m., they led a moment of silence for the 20 shooting victims, six of which who were killed in the assassination attempt of u.s. representative gabrielle giffords. among them was a 9-year-old woman and a judge's aid. this has touched everyone in one way or another. this candlelight vigil, especially for the congresswoman, the only one whose life is still in danger. for now, they can only hope for the power of prayer to perform

its own miracles. students and teachers at 9-year- old christina green's school. students tied balloons, ribbons, and stuffed animals to the fence in honor of their friend while they struggled to understand their friend's death. one girl offered comfort to christina's family. >> i'm so sorry for your family and hope that you can guide them and show them the right path way to light and live life. i will miss you. >> mesa verde is holding calcine for students and families a night. -- is holding counseling for students and families tonight. >> her funeral will be held in just a few days. wednesday at st. 0 billion church. it starts at 7:00 p.m. the funeral mass is thursday at

1:00 p.m. a special mass will be held tuesday at 7:00 p.m.. >> the tragedy in tucson, the focus at the state capital, gov. dan a brewer had planned to deliver her state of the state address -- gov. jan brewer had planned to deliver hosted of the state address. >> it was supposed to be a speech to deliver her plans for the year. but today, the state of the state address turned into a memorial for those killed and injured in saturday's mass shooting. >> arizona is in pain. yes, our grief is profound. we are yet in the first hour of

our sorrow. but we have not been brought down. we will never be brought down. [applause] >> and defiant words from the governor and a moment of silence. she called for all state leaders to honor those who can were killed that served the state with courage and devotion. political groups hope to move forward. >> we have reaction to the latest events and today's state of the state. >> it was a legislative session opening like no other. the attacks in tucson changed the tone from politics as usual to examination of the tone of arizona politics. >> you could see the full range of politics here, from conservatives to levels, played out under the eye of extra security. tea party members were concerned about critics who suggest that they brought an angry tone to politics that may have helped

>> i am concerned about the blame game that has already been going on. sheriff definite accused the tea party. he is not associated with any group. a couple of his favorite books were "the communist manifesto" and "mine,." ein kampf." >> is one side more responsible for this tone than other? >> what we need in the status for all leaders to step up, regardless of their political party, and address the climate. >> but what i ask is if one is more responsible than the other?

>> no. immigration, ethnic studies, and where to find the money to cope with the budget crisis. >> the house of representatives has changed its legislative schedule for the week following the shooting of arizona rep gabrielle giffords over the weekend. there will have a session on tuesday. on wednesday, the chamber will honor the victims of saturday's shooting. live coverage is on c-span. up next on c-span, ohio's new governor is sworn in. after that, a vote for independence in south sudan. later, a conversation on u.s.- china military relations. >> the c-span networks, we provide coverage of politics,

public affairs, nonfiction books, and american history. it is all available to you on television, radio, all mine, and on social and media networking sites. -- online, and on social media network sites. bringing our resources to your community, it is washington your way, the c-span network. now available in over 100 million homes, greeted by cable, provided as a public service. -- created by cable, provided as a public-service. >> the inauguration of john k. sick as ohio's governor, he won the election in november, defeating the incumbent ted strickland. among those in attendance were as the u.s. house speaker john boehner. this is 20 minutes. [applause]

>> now i invite the chief justice to a minister the oath of office to the governor. will the kasik family please come forward. >> raise your right hand. i, john kasik, do solemnly swear that i shall faithfully and honestly discharge the duties of the office of governor of ohio and show support, protect, and defend the constitution of the united states and the constitution of the state of ohio so help me god.

congratulations, governor. [applause] ♪ >> ladies and gentlemen, may i present to the 69th governor of the state of ohio, the hon. john

kasich. [cheers and applause] >> thank you. thank you. thank you. [applause] i have to start by thanking my great family, my little daughters are coming up on their 16th birthday. [laughter] almost. they act like it. they will be 11 on the 16th of january and it is very exciting for them. whenever i leave the room, often, mss, "data, and the view ." sweeter words were never heard, sweetheart.

and to my little daughter reese, the other duel that is in my sky, she gives me those little holes. when i get ready to make a big speech, >> my wife, karen, as we all know, she is a beautiful woman. but that is not really what drives her or drives me or my relationship with her. see, we are great friends and great buddies and we share so many experiences from hiking in the state parks to trying to take care of our daughters and to exercise in and praying and just trying to connect with our friends and family all over the country. see heart, i love you did your the most important thing in my life. thank you, but.

-- thank you, baby is sort of they, family and friends. i have a number of friends, here. i have been a very blessed man to have as many good friends as i have. what it is with my friends and with me is that we love one another. we are there for one another. it is loyalty towards me and support towards me, but it is my loyalty to them. i have never been so blessed as to have the collection of people who tell me the truth and tell me like it is, but they are there to support me and to strengthen me and to support my family.

so many of them are sitting here. you know i love you, right? to my supporters, from 1977, on, you put me on your shoulders. there is no way that i could have come here and gone anywhere near where i have been in my political life without the supporters. i am proud of the fact that we work together. some people called the independent and in the political world, the call me brush. are thend's eye supporters, not the ones with the big money, even though we do like them -- [laughter] it is the housewives back in 1977 and 1978 made the phone

calls and looked the omelets and put up signs and showed up day and night and brought their husbands with them and the young people that are met. the rich for the sky. we reach for the sky and hit the stars. i love you too, my supporters. thank you for what you have done to give me a chance. i want to thank all zero islands for giving me the chance to form a team and to transform our great state. years ago i used to use the word i an awful lot. i do not know whether it is age or prayer for the constant beating that my friends give me but it is not by any longer.

it is we. i learned long ago only teams can create great things. there is no in team. we as 0 highlands -- o iowans -- ohiowans. my inauguration is your inauguration. i want everyone to understand and i hope you can realize that we accept this responsibility together. i have a sense that across ohio, people know that we have a challenge. today, we are inaugurated into a better day. i report toervice

the people are report to you, the people [applause] ] i do not report to special interests under any circumstances. i want you all to understand something. i can never work to advance myself. i will not work to advance myself. my future or myself interest is not acceptable as long as i stay on that track, as long as i stay on that path i will remain a good public servant might only service -- service. my only purpose, only passion is to lift ohio and make us competitive again and to create jobs for our families because

when a family has jobs, they have hope. they have two names and they have strength. it is my only purpose and not only passion and when i wake up every morning i will say my purse. i will of my family. . will focus of ohio's economy nothing can stand in our way. i am a servant of the lord. i am a servant of the lord. [applause] he has opened doors all of my life. the lord has.

he has pushed me over the mountain this time. i do not know what, but i have no doubt that he has. i have spent a large amount of my life trying to figure out how he works. i got a message one day driving up over by the hoover reservoir it was a telegram or a phone call, but it was clear. stop trying to figure out. i am not one to tell you. here is what i do know. he expects his servants to use their talents. he expects all of us because all of us have been created with a special talent. the key to life is to use those talents even when it seems daunting and impossible.

he reminds us that no one person is superior to any other person because in his eyes, all are equal. you know, sometimes i see the scrub lady, and i realize that in the next life, she's likely to have a bigger crown than i could ever dream of. don't go past them quickly; you could be passing an angel. quiet reflection is necessary every day so as not to get lost. moody wrote about a civil war general who was facing a huge battle. he prayed for two hours. his subordinates said to him, "how could you spend two hours

praying before this big battle?" he said, "how could i not." prayer is necessary. you know, i so loved the memories of my family visiting ohio. my uncle harry, cousin harry's father, used to tell me when we went to vermilion and we passed that pennsylvania line into ohio, "johnny, we've reached the promise land." [laughter] even as a young boy, i knew that uncle harry was right. you see, ohio has wide horizons, we have unlimited opportunity. ohio is an exciting place. and i have come to understand as a grown man what ohio is all about. we are about common sense. we are about common sense. and we can drive our country. [applause] oh, yes, we're about helping our neighbors and loving god and building a better future for our children. you know what, ohio has been the

promise land for me because of my family. because of my friends. and because of this work. i have never ever considered leaving ohio, no matter how great the opportunities in the far away place may have seemed. i love ohio. ohio has given me all that i am today. and now i can pay back ohio and help lead us forward into realizing ohio's promise and our destiny. get ready for an exciting time. [applause] put on the seat belt because we're going. [applause] the weeds have grown up. the obstacles at times seemed great.

the light is dimmed in our great state. but i believe we have not yet begun to fight for our families, for our children and for a legacy. you know, i've slowed down in my life. and i thank god because it gives me time to look deep into the eyes of our neighbors across this state. oh, yes, i've seen determination. i've seen resolution. and i've seen strength. i have seen strength in the eyes of a young woman in ashtabula who is committed to growing her small business. and she said, "mr. kasich, please don't wreck my business." she pleaded with me in ashtabula. i've seen resolution in the eyes of the people in scioto county. we have pledged to win the fight against drug addiction and drug abuse and save their

community and save their families. they were here a couple days ago, about a dozen women wearing lime green t-shirts, all bore the mark of somebody who died from that devilish addiction. we are all going to fight to help them, won't we? all of us will fight to help them. [applause] i have seen determination in the eyes of a mom and a dad at bob evans. right, bob evans. chicken and noodles. [laughter] you know, that mom and dad were eating to stretch their income to provide a better life to their children. and she said, "we're counting on you, john." i said, "i'm counting on you to be part of the team." i've seen strength in the eyes

of the people standing in line at a food pantry in wilmington. they will not let tough economic times defeat them. mary and i were so moved in wilmington. people, who have played by the rules, people who have worked hard with common sense and god- fearing, and one day, nothing. noti can't say nothingbecause that hope springs eternal. we're going to help those people in wilmington, aren't we all? we are all going to pitch in and help them. [applause] i've seen resolution in the eyes of the people of walbridge who are determined rebuild their community after the devastating tornado.

and to drive by past that devastated school house, and to sit with the people and realize how they all huddle together, business leaders, community leaders, clergy, they're a role model for all of us, because, you know, when one part of ohio hurts, we all hurt. and when one part of ohio succeeds, we all succeed. we all admire and are inspired by our fellow ohioans who work to overcome difficult circumstances. our enemy. our enemy is not our people or our assets or our great cities. we must rebuild our great cities in ohio. [applause] they have a great legacy. our enemy is not our fertile

farmlands or our vibrant family-oriented suburbs. our enemy, our enemy is the status quo. the status quo, the dark side of human nature that shuts down dreams and basks in fear. the status quo, the dark side of human nature that shuts down dreams. our enemies are those who selfishly look out only for themselves. the last gasp of air in the coal mine, i want mine. and they forget that we are all in this together. don't be selfish. our enemies are those who refuse to recognize the power

of teamwork. they refuse to help raise the bar. and as our mother used to tell us, donna, raise the bar. make the world better for the fact that we came this way. the people who refuse the power of team and refuse to raise the bar are weak. we will defeat them. we will defeat them together. [applause] well, as far as it relates to our enemies, we can make them allies. i've been seeing it happen in my so many meetings and so many trips. yes, we can make them allies by our example, because it is absolutely true that courage is contagious. and we lead by doing, not by

saying. and when we do it, it creates a contagion that cannot be resisted. we can show them that every person has a moment in time, a moment in time, a window of opportunity where their legacy will be honored for generations. it's not about the big shots, ladies and gentlemen. it's not about the governor, the senator or the speaker, the justice. it's about our fathers and our mothers and our grandfathers and our grandmothers who built america's greatest generation one person at a time by recognizing their duty and doing it. they were america's greatest generation. we honor them and we have to live up to the example that they have provided. [applause] it is so exciting to be part of

a movement that answers the bell. i've had the great fortune in my life in being part of many movements that have answered the bell. that works to save our state and strengthens our country in the process. as ohio goes, so goes america. they're watching us. they're watching us. we will not let them down. [applause] we are not republicans. we are not democrats. we are not liberals. and we are not conservatives. we are ohioans. we are buckeyes together. [applause] it's our mountain to climb.

can you see it? can you see that mountain? i know you can. we can climb it. one step at a time. helping each other to be strong. together, that mountain, we will reach the summit. god bless america. god bless ohio. [applause]

>> new jersey faces a $10.50 billion budget deficit. that will be the topic of gov. chris christie's state of the state address tomorrow. that is on c-span. >> for residents of southern sudan began casting ballots to decide whether their region will become an independent nation. now, a discussion on strategic and international studies.

>> good morning, everyone. thank you for rousing yourself out of bed so early. we appreciate you coming. there will be a few people drifting in as we get going. we will try to make a start now so we will have plenty of time for discussion. my name is richard downey. in the deputy director of the african program here at csi s. i am grateful for our panelists. we will get the first crack at discovering -- discussing the referendum. as we sit here and discuss sudan this morning, southern sudan is

in the middle of making an historic decision. it is a referendum on their future. whether to remain part of sudan or secede and form their own nation. millions of people appear to a taken that opportunity so far in the first day and a half of voting. many of them are lining up outside polling stations hours before they open, patiently awaiting their chance to play their parts. a few months ago, it seems unlikely that we would get to this point. we have seen a big push in recent weeks with the international community to get things on track. the sudanese people themselves have taken the lead. they make this process work. the result in recent weeks, we have seen public statements by politicians both north and south

that have helped reduce tensions and create an environment where we can be more confident that the process will go through and the outcome will reflect the will of the people that take part in it. this is a momentous time. i would like to acknowledge our representaves from southern sudan. in getting to this point today, ave th havelled a long way to decades of civil war, the peace agreement in 2005, and the subsequent six-year long process of making the deal work. we're glad they can join us, and we look forward to, perhaps, hearing them speak as well this morning. but today we're going to reflect a little bit about, upon how sudan has arrived at this moment, but mainly we're going to look forward and think about the upcoming challenges as well. because while those who have worked on the referendum, of

course, deserve a great deal of credit for the fact it's taking place on time and so far at least in a relatively orderly fashion, the referendum isn't the end of the road. as was said yesterday as his vote was cast, it's premature to say job done. in many ways the real challenges lie ahead. particularly in the six month-long period following the referendum. if the vote comes out in favor of secession, this will be the time when the tough negotiations really begin in earnest on all the issues which will help determine relations between north and south for years to come. and, of course, the state of ab yea remains undecided. people there have been denied their chance to vote in a separate referendum on whether to remain part of the north or join the south, and we've had worrying reports of violence there during the past few days. so our speakers are going to discuss some of these big issues today and perhaps say something about the role of the

international community and the role they can may going forward. the united states, sue tan's neighbors and the african union as well. we're very pleased to be joined by two experienced analysts from international crisis group, an organization whose thoughtful analysis issues reports we always find useful here on the africa program. on my immediate left we have icg's new africa program directer comfort arrow. comfort oversees four different projects in africa covering central, southern, west and the horn of africa, 20 countries in all in these regions. comfort was previously directer of the africa program at the international center for transitional government, transitional justice, i apologize. we're delighted, also, to have with us, fouad hikmat who's

special adviser and takes part in icg's work in relation to sudan, and his professional background includes management of humanitarian and post-conflict programming. he's literally just touched down this d.c. this morning from sudan as well, so he can give us really the up-to-the-minute perspective on what's going on in sudan now. no pressure there as well. i'm going to hand it over to comfort who's going to give us an overview of icg's work, and then we'll have plenty of time for questions and comments from all of you as well, hopefully. thanks very much. comfort. >> thank you very much. and i would like to start by wishing you all a happy new year, but also thanking csis,

especially richard and the staff of the center for hosting international crisis group on the day after the start of the important referendum. i also think it's quite telling that the very first job for the new africa directers of icg is to come to washington and speak to a gathering here, and that shows you, also, the importance of washington in the question of the future of a new sudan and the future of north sudan as well. so it's a pleasure and an honor that we have been asked to come this morning, very cold morning, but this morning in washington to talk about a new dawn in the africa as well. just briefly, as richard was saying, i would start off by just introducing the international crisis group to all of you for some of you who don't know it. we are generally recognized as an independent, nonpartisan organization that services or provides analysis to governments and international governmental bodies like the united nations,

the european union and the world bank, and we work quite closely with a number of organizations like the cics here in washington. and we're founded about 15 years ago this 1995 -- in 1995 as an independent, nongovernmental organization on an initiative by a number of transatlantic figures who despaired over the inteational community's failure backn th 1990s on tragedies such as somalia, an and bosnia and even at that time sudan as well. and we are quite well known for the reports that we publish. it wavers between 80 and 90 reports that we do, and i even in the sudan program, the sudan team if they were given a lot of leeway, they could write 80 reports in the space of three months in sudan because of the nature of the situation there. we also produce what we call the crisis watch bulletin which provides a monthly snapshot of

what we consider to be the conflict alert countries at that moment in the month. we have several advocacy offices, and most of you may know our washington office. we also have an office in brus ls and in new york as well, and the headquarters for the africa program is strategically located in nairobi which is a critical hub for us. and as richard has already said, as the africa directer, we operate in 20 different countries across the continent. before i joined icg, i was also working for the united nations in liberia as well. specifically on sudan, my colleague will go into more deeper details on sudan, but i also just want to acknowledge that this is a mow men powstous -- momentous moment in the history of the continent when you're looking for key moments, key dates on the continen 1957, ghana z as the ft

independent country on the continent after the end of decolonization. we'll also note the freedom of nelson mandela in 1990 and the end of apartheid in 1994. this is another historical moment on the continent, the birth of a new nation. and the key concern for us is how that is going to unfold. the voting for the referendum, as richard pointed out, started yesterday on the question of self-determination which may result in the independence of the south. two decades of war have come to an end in sudan in 2005 with the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement, but now we are at a stage where the dell delicate peace -- delicate peace is going to be tested. the long-term stability of the region lies in the ability of the north and south to forge a post-cpa relationship. and the situation, if it goes

well, we'll see the smooth outcome of the referendum. and if results are respected by the khartoum government, we should see some significant progresses being made. and this would provide a perfect platform for negotiations for post-referendum arrangements to go successfully. but should it go poorly, we might also witness a reignition of conflict in between the north and the south and also an escalation of the violence in darfur which fouad will talk about and again, also, the impact on the region will also be quite grave. so at this point the situation is quite fluid, and it's quite uncertain how things are going to go. the situation is quite tricky in creating a new and can independent southern sudan which already has been dubbed as a prefelled state. the borders remain undecided, and meanwhile institutions and

services which urgently need to be regenerated and rebuilt, this is still a fundamental issue at stake for the new south sudan. the future arrangements on citizenship, on nationality, on national resources, on wealth sharing, on management of oil and water, currency, assets and the liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated regardless of the referendum outcome. these are issues that we pointed out in the briefing we produced in december towards the end of last year. and, of course, the question of the future of abyei needs to be addressed. of course, we must congratulate ifis for their work in the last three weeks in bringing out the voter registration process. there will be a need for cohesive statement from relevant actors, in particular in this instance we'll call upon the african union and key leading space on the continent, nigeria,

south africa, egypt also to make the necessary statements, positive statements in relation to sudan. and be, of course, the secretary general's monitoring panel needs to take a more public leading role in the pronouncements made over the next three weeks. there must be a careful monitoring and communication over these next three weeks which we judge to be a tense period for sudan. the real challenge, the real issue that we need to avoid in this next three weeks is disinformation, is rumors, and these are real triggers for instability. and, of course, here in washington we can't forget the role of the united states' government. the u.s. incentives have been very helpful, however, ultimately limited given that khartoum is politically savvy enough to understand it's the u.s. congress and shot the executive that makes many key decisions on the table. the absence of a basic blue prohibit for the post-2011

referendum between the north and south constitutes the uncertainties about the political and economic future of each and risks the referendum as a serious game that sustains affairs and smooths the conduct of the exercise and acceptance of the result. added to this is the deterioration situation this darfur and concerns about insuring a more credible and serious negotiation process ongoing in qatar. insuring stability in the south and improved relations between the north and the south in the post-referendum climate will be critical to softing the darfur problem -- solving the darfur problem. getting the situation right in sudan will be a significant and game-changing moment for the continent, but also for the international community also. we, therefore, welcome this opportunity today to engage in a debate with you all here on the future and how to guarantee stability in the north and south

and a new north while we concentrate heavily on the future of south sudan, we mustn't forget the future of the north is at stake as well. so i'll turn it back to richard. >> thank you very much for that overview, comfort. yeah, i'll pass it straight over to fouad. thanks very much. >> yeah, good morning. our protocol observed, i want to say that in my directive, it's impressed me very much. she's saying she's new, but the speech doesn't sound like she's new. [laughter] because i think she did half what i'm supposed to do. she already did half of my briefing which made things easier to me. but i would like to start by saying thank you so much for the cis to invite us for this event. and and it is difficult moment for me as a sudanese.

if the i remove my hat from the ipg, at the end i am sudanese, and this is about human relations. as far as i am very, very happy for suit sudanese to go and vote for this historic moment and to get their country. and if i am on that side, i will be happy and grouplating for a lot -- jukelating for a lot of reasons. and i am happy for that. but also as a sudanese to see the map that we knew from the primary schools, that we draw it now by half and the map of sudan, i don't know how we are going to draw it in this six months' time. the south will be very difficult to draw. it's very, very sad moment for us. for me it is not a surprise that sudan is going to secede because before going to talk about the challenges, i think one of the

main reasons underpinning the current context is that the two parties simply failed to implement a comprehensive peace agreement. it is the mistake of the two the fail to implement the comprehensive peace agreement. i don't hold the two parties only on the she she saying. we can go up from the government that took control of sudan after independence. the respondent goes from there, and i think -- responsibility goes from there, and i think all the government failed. but focusing on the cpa, it has got two important principles. one is democratic transition and included in that is the reconciliation process. and, hopefully, if democratic transition happened, reconciliation happened, that will force the principle of self-determination that makes it attractive.

those two principles did not happen. for a lot of political reasons, and as we know that a benchmark in democratic transformation was the elections that were supposed to happen in half of the interim period to leave another three years of the second half of of the interim period to foster the constitution and legal arrangements being done and then to work in these three years to make sure that unity is going to make attractive. elections didn't happen until third or fourth year. it happened sick or eight months -- six or eight months just before the end of the sewer rim period -- interim period, so three years being shortened to eight months for a lot of reasons. and, of course, they wanted to augment that influence of control, their power to remain

in power x that's why, i think, they didn't want the elections to happen on time. so both, i think, failed in these three principles, the democratic transformation if i could consider reconciliation has another principle. and the -- but the only success is that they reach the referendum. and so for me, then, when i look into the comprehensive peace agreement, all what i can describe is it became a grand cease fire for six years. there is a cease fire in six years and now after six years that the question here is can we maintain that cease fire? so, and the other reason is, also, and i may want here to draw specifically on islamist when they took power in 1989 they had their own vision for sudan. and, unfortunately, that region could not accommodate the

preference because they saw the preference at marginal, ours as minority groups rather than groups of their own right. and they wanted to maintain power. so the cpa which should have used their power from 100% to 52% will give the splm28% and the other political parties that are remaining, they saw that in these six years how they can continue maintain the power rather than looking into inclusive pluralism. and that is, i think, one of the problems that made the cpa to fail. so its operation is a logical outcome, and i don't think unity is going to be an outcome, and i don't think there is happy magic in sudan. what there is is sadness always, and i hope that one day this turns into some of happiness. so the challenges are immense. and let me focus on few things.

the positive referendum issues, of course, we come to them. but it's a procedure. it's a procedure. but it is happening in an environment where there is serious tension, there is serious nervousness and volatility. that is where this procedure is happening. and at the same time there is no full agreement on any of the referendum issues. none. and also there is a military buildup along the borders, and there is an economic embargo on the south. so if we see in the last weeks the government, or let me say president what sheer, it's not the government made this decision. let's make a distinction here. sometimes when president but she

talks, he's not talking on behalf of the -- [inaudible] he made a decision that 20% of the southerners on the civil service they are going to go home after secession. and refuse to give the sudanese people citizenship. only if there is a lit call arrangement. and to be dealt as foreigners. to give you an example, at least 24,000 southern sudanese students in khartoum, what is going to happen to these 24,000 if you send them home? and at the same time we know e that there is a lot of people going back, now, to south sudan, over 100,000, that they are really in a very dire situation as there is no humanitarian assistance, no shelter and is -- so on. and i question that question there the ncp. it is an ncp rather than a government unity decision.

so on thely, for example -- recently, for example, there are, the transactions or transfer of vital goods to south sudan have blocked. the cereal market for the government and so on. they got the message that not to transfer cereal to the south of sudan. the aspect of oil is becoming a very big problem. [inaudible] so over 100%, prices shot to 30 or 40% in south sudan. these are policies not favored for a mutual good relationship between the north and south. so this sort of direction, it will reflect negatively on the communities along the borders,

especially -- [inaudible] because if the splm begets such policies by blocking -- who have 11.5 million heads of cattle that spend nine months along the borders of 1956, that is their livelihoods for the last 200, 300, 500 years. if south blocks that, that will be very serious, and they are very serious constituency of sudan. and these communities along the borders are highly militarized as we know that in abyei, but also the baa forward rah are highly militarized. they have been used, abused during the last wars. militias, popular defense forces, and they were, like, the front line of the regime the

last 20 years in fighting the war against the south. highly militarized. so this kind of policies in the last weeks meant some people and analysts in sudan to describe like this kind of policy direction from the ncp rather than from the government. it's a sort of like soft touch or the freshest steps to sort of on ethnic cleansing. and now it is debatable because that's a legal term. but when you deny your own citizens the right which is actually in the constitution of sudan, it says that sudan allows dual citizenship. sudanese can have citizenship of other countries and can even the president does not have the right to remove the citizenship of a person even by internationalization. and international law also doesn't accept that. so what i think it is important

now for the north and south is to secure that strategic relationship to get these consequences of the political separation. it is a political -- so they need to focus on the economic and financial union, unity and looking into the common markets. .. >> therefore, one the main conditions in the coming six months is how to avoid the

confrontations along the borders. unfortunately, as i say, that both parties and particularly are creating the position along the borders. they are actively mobilizing, tribes along the borders to rejoin the pdf, popular defense forces. and on the pretext they are going to lose their interest by the succession of south sudan. if it doesn't go well, and the results not accepted, it means the separation would not go safely. the transitional period would be full violence in my opinion, and the communities along the borders will aggregate the situation in abyei. and abyei configures the wall between the communities in the armed forces and into why the

conflict on the process and two parties to conclude the cpa. as i say in the last six months, we failed to find solution to the issues. although the framework presented by the african union high implementation which includes principals, but no solutions. and i think what is important now is to discuss the issue of the citizenship and economic relationship that it affects day-to-day lives of the people along the borders. if the issue of the citizenship is resolved, in the interest of both, i think it could open this place for political dialogue on the issues, and the kind of borders, and so on. i think that is an entry for the positive referendum. there's no need for this huge military buildup that we see now along the borders. north of the borders and south

of the borders, a very serious one. and the second challenge which i want to draw the attention to which people are not aware of it is the blue light. these two have good forces inside south sudan, and also along the borders of 1956. these with military forces that they fought with the splm for the last years. they fought for their rights, they have the protocols. it's called south sudan on the complaints of the peace agreement on the resolution of the conflict. it is a protocol blue nile that will go through the public confrontation, and into negotiate with the centers and once they agree then they protocol becomes a find binding peace agreement. at the moment, it's not a final

binding for kurdufan and the blue nile. they have to go through negotiation. now recently the government or again the national congress party asked the splm to draw the forces and disarm and they cannot come over the 1956 borders with arms. and to redeploy up to the borders in 1956 in a way to cut strategic depths between these forces and southern sudan. blue nile is going to refuse disarmament. because they know the public confrontation in the context now of the referendum is sort of a constitutional vacuum. it is not going to break the final solution that it is acceptable to the people in southern kurdufan and the blue

nile. as we know it was supposed to be happening in the context of half a year of the interim period that was the democratic elections and then people who are elected in the fair and free elections and then there is the public concern on the framework of the cpa. that's sort of the vacuum of the framework. you can imagine if the republican confrontation is going to bring any lasting solution. that's why they want to keep their arms, they want to keep their forces. because they know there's a future challenge meeting them. so -- and i think this is a very big conference. recently south sudan agreed president basheer. i think it is important. but the risk here is that ncp

could disagree or change their mind from here until then. what happens if they try to move their forces up to their borders of 1956 with not recognizing the specifics of blue nile. that's one the serious risk. the cease fire agreement which is in southern kurdufan, if you remember, the geneva cease fire. there it is still valid. it might be debatable if it's valid or not. but there's an agreement. but the cpa did not specify anything for this information for the forces in the blue nile. i think one the channels now is the two parties, they need to renew the cease fire agreement in southern kurdufan, and looking at how to maintain the cease fire in blue nile.

i think this is one the very big challenges in the coming period. and that's the role of the international community, and it's very important and look into the public confrontation cannot happen in a constitution and vacuum. because the constitution of sudan is going to end in july 2011, after that what is the constitution? after that, the public is going to work on what? that's why a lot of people argue that the constitutional arrangements have to be debated before the public consultation. and therefore, until this happens, the cease fire needs to maintained in southern kurdufan and blue mile. -- blue nile. people focus on abyei and they don't see this point. as we know that, all the time

ncp wants to weaken it's part, because it's important to negotiate with a weakened splm. now with the referendum going, i think it's not subsiding. because even the southerners who are opposing the splm now at the moment, they can't go around the current. the referendum is going in new country so even the opposition parties, in south sudan, they need to be careful. at the moment, there is no leverages to use and so on. splm is becoming more stronger. but they might get weaker along the line. and as we are going to talk about it in the challenges of south sudan. so in general, instability in south sudan is not -- but the political stability in south sudan cannot happen unless there is a stability north sudan. and if this is a stable advisory. if the south hits one area, the

north will be able to hurt it and vice versa. it's important there is stability in both, and if people want the stability in the south to progress, they have to seek the stability in the north. and i think pluralism is the direction. for both south sudan and north, given the diversity of cultures and regional interest. it appears the splm is aware of this. they had the south of all parties on the conference, they agreed during the framework, it is still on paper. it needs to be implemented after the referendum, and the referendum of the party is over, so they move towards pluralism. but the problem in the north even if that president basheer recently said he's calling for the national unity. it's a calling. but looking into the last 20 years and the six years, can we

imagine that you had our 100% cpa to 28% or 48% of that and now there is a possibility to go to 100%. they are going to go for the national government to reduce your power to what? and that's a very big question. it's going to create the reasons for continue struggle in the north of sudan. and this, of course,, -- an approach like this for the no option for darfur. the dialogue as we see cairo agreement, old agreements, sudan is governed by so many agreements, sudan, agreements, there are about seven or eight of them. they didn't go anywhere, includes cpa which became the cease fire.

the option is very clear. the darfurians picked it up. the darfur is not going anywhere. i think they did. if people lose the opportunity to go to the boxes to change the situation, they will go for the boxes of ammunition rather than the books of elections to change the situation. now at moment, the south sudan is -- succession is a reality. and the government will not oppose it. and the acceptance of the north of the referendum hopefully it will reflect in the north and south, and then the south will start to deal positively with the north and the north to try to deal responsibly with the pending issues. but, of course, that will be different dice if one or within one the two take a different

approach. so if people use the secession of south sudan for regime change, some political forces think so, including people from outside, that is very dangerous for sudan. i think people need to be thinking very seriously about these. and it shouldn't be a step for a regime change. and a lot of people argue that in the recent america international community, market twist the arm of the ncp to accept the referendum and the results. and this perhaps encouraged the opposition party, darfur rebel groups to say now this is the time since the bull has started to fall, it is time to take out the knife and kill the bull. i think that's very dangerous

for sudan and stability, not only for sudan, but the southern is highly mobilized, and it is highly mobilized and it will not be easy for them to let go. what is important here is to force a strategic cooperation and relationship between the north and south, to look into the constitutional arrangements that i talked about it and how can the north and south address this issue of pluralism, but also for the north if there's no discussion about the constitutional arrangement, the public consultation will not be resolved, the conflict in darfur is not going to be resolved. you know that doha, i don't know where it is. i mean if somebody could tell me what is a doha now? but there is an agreement. but that agreement if this is a genuine solution to darfur, then people have to address the

cardinal issue in sudan, governance. the issue of the center. and as i say, that will not be easy issue that the ncp will accommodate. that's why it is very difficult to go for vice president for the region, for the regional government and so on, because also the arabic tribes in darfur are seriously conflict, seriously conflicted, they want more districts and more states in southern darfur. now we know there is three. people are arguing for another three extra. because the idea -- the thinking of the division and so on that actually led to the conflict in darfur during the beginning of this regime when they were trying to put the pluralism dividing darfur into the districts and borders between

the ownership of the tribe was divided with the others. with so many districts, everybody started to want to have the control of that district which then led to the tribal differences. and that was the beginning of their conflict in darfur. it started from the beginning of the '90s, because there is historical beginnings. but that was the key point. i agree with many people that darfur needs to be resolved from the bottom up. definitely darfur dialogue is extremely important. it is burg djibouti, and now darfur, they talked about it the darfur forum. now the government came out with a new strategy in darfur, let's find the solution for doha, and bring it to darfur. in principal and theory, it is good. but if we look at it conceptually, it is very questionable.

and i don't think it is a strategy that it will bring a lasting peace in darfur. because if it is to bring lasting peace in darfur, then the elections could have, should have been a fair elections where they were presented in the counsel of the three states are two representatives. now it is a strategy put by the government to be discussed by the legislative states of the council of the three states which is actually the government, but the three governments, which is actually the government, but the tribal leaders who are corrupted by the government. so this is the government. it is the government with the government with the government, i don't know where the rebel groups and the rest of the darfur people. i think the african union high implementation plan now they are advocating for let's go since doha is not going. i think the americans have the approach that we go for the darfur forum, i think it is a

grave mistake and will deepen the crisis in darfur. and so i suggest let me make it short and just go over very quickly on the -- on south sudan before i go. for south sudan, the issues is the challenges are immense. as we know that now, the party will continue in couple of days until july 9. where then they became independent, and even the party will become more stronger, may finish maybe a dent of the year. there is one year of party jubilation and so on. but they need to look into the political instability. splm is not stable, it's not professional army.

so the issue of the security sector is a very big challenge for the splm. this is what political stability, inclusiveness, what they agree to is the south sudanese political parties. they need to force. they need really to implement it. first of all, the interim south sudan constitutional is ending in july, they need another interim or draft constitution for south sudan. that will be the law of the land. i think that is the first step. the ddr, disarmament of soldiers and so on, that's something that's not going very well. there's a lot of arms, a lot of militias, the disarmaments didn't go well. if you look that it comes actually from the oil revenue from the north. half of it is going through this big, big security sector.

army and so on, nothing going for social services and so on. they need to reduce that army so that some of this money money -t how they are going to do the integration and demobilization for people to do what in south sudan. even though coming from the north, we know there's nothing for them at the moment. so imagine the challenges in front of them. of course, they have to address the issues of accountability very seriously. corruption is very high. and i think during the jubilation period, they will have to be careful thinking of how they are going to use the money. if they agree with the government of the north or the ncp on the government of oil and so on. those issues are very, very serious. i'm not going to go into the details, as you all know, nothing has been agreed.

but i think citizenship is very important. what i really see is that the way forward here and that brings me to the regional and international players is that if we look into the region, egypt, libia, what is their interest on sudan? they want stability. i think so. the issue of the nile waters that people talk a lot about as far as egypt is concerned, that is a bigger issue. the secession is not going to affect it any my opinion. south sudan will take it's share from north, from sudan's 15 or 18 billion cuber -- cubic meters. and still the corporation framework that's signed by five or six countries is going to be an issue. i don't see how south sudan is going to affect this for a moment. egypt has been very good with south sudan all the way. actually working to make unify more attractive than the north. for utopia, it's a serious

concern. they have borders with both countries, north and south. i think they are really looking for stability. but, of course, kenya, uganda, they invest on the cpa, now they are reaping the benefit of their hard work on the cpa. and that business people, and they want the stability and, of course, they don't mind the secession because that will actually reaping their investment and reaping the investments of the last six years and so on. but, of course, people are generally concerned about the islamic discourse that the ncp might take. in my opinion, ncp became the middle-class business people looking into their interest of work, wealth, money, more than becoming, you know, islamic and iranian regime. they are different in concept and principal. now the recent called to go back

to sudan and beating of the all of that is addressing the internal twenty sis -- internal constituencies to keep them together. they are asking questions ab the leadership. it is not really solid. i think that call to go back is an important call to maintain the unity of islamic. you know that division happened in 2000 when they left, and the rest left, and it is divided. i think it will be a problem. even for the rest of sudan. and but it's still -- they have a very big challenge for the ncp to have the decision. because decision now is in the hand of five or six. the idea of sharia and the islamic course and process now it is very highly centralized.

at the moment there's no shura. that will weaken the islamic behind the ncp. they need to deal with them. i question the role of the regime change. so there's a lot of countries in the region, utopia, they think the region change shouldn't be the way to go forward. it's hard to maintain the stability because ncp has the stability of moneys, weapons, and for the north, ncp has the monopoly. you need to deal with the ncp and the major players and how to get strategic cooperation between the north and south and final political stability, political stability in the north cannot happen unless there is an openness for political dialogue for resolution of south sudan --

southern kurdufan and darfur, and resolution in darfur. i say this -- this cannot happen if there's no serious rethinking of the political system in the center and the restructuring of the state. maybe something is saying that this person is talking on behalf of the splm or the opposition party. and i don't know if anybody of the presenters of the government of sudan might say this person just read a couple of newspapers of opposition. but it is a reality. if that doesn't happen, i think sudan is going to face serious challenges. finally, north thinks that in sudan, south sudan, we can see there's a lot of challenges. it might take time. i think so. but the problems in the north might not take time. where we see now the referendum is finished, everything is going very well. resulted maybe accepted, abyei might be the problem, and so on. but the problems in the north are going to erupt faster than

in the south, and that might jeopardize the situation in south sudan. that's what i want to say. thank you. and we have a discussion more. [applause] [applause] >> thanks very much, for your comprehensive analysis of the picture, the very confused picture right now. i'm going to open the floor up to questions in a moment. perhaps first of all, i could ask you to think about -- let's look at the very short-term picture and the actual referendum process itself and perhaps the role of the international community in that process. we're told it's going to take -- obviously if everything takes place over the whole of this week, the final outcome won't be known for several weeks after that. we might have some results trickling out, i suppose, in the mean time, all of which creates

conditions for uncertainty and perhaps instability. and perhaps the worse-case scenario, the outcome itself might be contested. face with the potential pitch, what's the role for the international community, do you think? and how -- particularly how should it be coordinating it's response if the outcome is somewhat uncertain or is challenged by perhaps the north or one of the other parties? who should be taking the lead in this process? while you think about that, i'll maybe take a couple of questions from the floor. please identify yourself, and microphones should be on the way around. up in the front here please. >> thank you. that was a great talk. i'm doug brooks with the international stability operation association, and to follow up on that question. specifically with the united nations, what should they be doing at this conture right now?

>> we'll take one more. gentleman in the middle there. >> thank you. i listened to priorities about the recent involvement from the ncp side. we all know that the ncp is reluctant to do any arraignments to the referendum, and even accepting the referendum results. the recent that the ncp started to publicly say and accept the results and be recognized, why do you think the southern shift? the second question, can you elaborate more about the african union implementation between doing the negotiation between north and south? thank you. >> okay.

he wants to tackle some or all of those questions? >> don't ask me challenges questions. [laughter] >> i want just to say hello to my friend there. it's good to hear you. i think that all of the international communities is extremely important for the results. the observers of the european union, the center, a lot of observers, plus the u.n. has a special place separate because they are working on the logistics and the technical support. so it cannot be the body that -- or to make a statement on their process.

because it is part of it. that's why there is the part led by president in kabul, former president, what is important for the international community and especially the role of the u.n. plus other observers and monitors to keep on the day day-to-day basis to the sudanese, on the international community, how is it going? think this is very important. not to leave it until the end where then the results are going to be contested. in terms of contestation, i don't think so. if the ncp wanted to contest it, they could have derailed the whole process. some of the grounds second to the constitutional court, it could have derailed or they could have. i think thanks to the ncp

president, and president bashir, he didn't want to stop that. he said that in a speech. he wants the referendum to go. they are going to access the results. of course, the petitions are there. still it can appear in the coming days. it might surprise us. but i doubt and i hope not. but the international community, i think, is very important. especially the part coming together on the day-to-day basis. how is it going? if there's anything to mention it so then the results is not contested. : >> that is why he wanted the

referendum to be postponed. because the ncp is the state. the vulnerability of the state is the vulnerability of the party. unfortunately, because in the sudan is like that. one is the divisions between the islamists. that could have been very serious. after the elections, things went very bad. and then it went back and so on. so how to get that the vulnerability within the party is? and the second thing is address the issues of the economy. the economic situation, to build up reserves, but also to negotiate on the referendum and the referendum to negotiate other things, as we know the issues of thie sudan's relationships with the u.s., and

terrorism and the other functions and so on. so to buy time, and also issues, but it doesn't go anywhere. some counts have been provided that was very, very supportive. i don't think it speaks well. i don't think so. any thinking of another afghan, iraq or sudan doesn't work. so i don't think, but that was one of the reasons that they start to think that, okay, these issues is very difficult to delay, delay, to delay because of the region is going to go against, even they were going to lose leg of african -- lose the league of african nations. i think more they decided, more

than pressures. they think more intelligent regions that may be beside let it go, let it happen and then we deal with the consequences. >> thank you. comfort, is there anything you would like to say? in that case, we have another round of questions. anyone up front here? microphone is on its way. >> i am with csis. i must confess that i think there is pretty gross ignorance in this town about sudanese politics. and little understanding of problems of khartoum. i was interested in what you said, and i would like to issue a little further about what is probably the fundamental problems from the perspective of

resident bush year. and that is actually the divisions within the ncp. there is a tendency to see the ncp as a uniform block, and i think that's fundamentally wrong. there are serious fault lines. and that islam, as an ideology, is very attractive to many northern sudanese, not only in the nile valley but in the periphery as well in the 1990s. and that the islamists agenda still has many supporters who may well be mobilized by what they see is compromise, a sellout, over the independence of southern sudan. and 200 years of sudanese history.

so my question is, what do you see as the strains and the pressures from the islamists within the ncp, and, indeed, without the ncp, those who followed to opposition? how potent a challenge are they? obviously par four, -- the door for, the blue nile are issues. but in the khartoum i would be much more worried about these guys. and what they are likely to do. and i think the international community does not pay attention to this problem that the regime faces. so i would be interested today in what you think about that. >> thank you. second question right at the back. >> i am jeremy. a question about the post-referendum reconstruction of the south.

there's been a lot of criticism about world bank, the u.n. and ngo community in terms of some of the department activities that have occurred in the south and that the limited success in going beyond just humanitarian service provision to get to actual development and reconstruction. and some recent criticism, particularly at the world bank. with the government of south sudan, as you pointed out, still spending upwards of 90% of its revenues on security sector issues, not able to invest very much in social service provision, what do you see as the prospects were actually getting beyond a paradigm assorted ngo provided services and getting to the point where the government of south sudan has both adequate revenue and adequate capacity, and will to start providing the services, funding the services? and what do you see as a donor

structure aren't international funding structure that would be more effective than we've seen so far in getting both the aid community and the government of south sudan to that point? >> okay, and let's take one more question. the gentleman at the front here. >> yes, marcus, u.s. department of state. i wanted to follow-up on part part of the question of the second gentlemen. i was a little bit surprised, by help pessimistic you were by the framework that the au had brokered. when moon was back here and spoke to a group, he was far more upbeat in terms of saying he felt that although no framework agreement had been signed, that there have been large agreement on major issues, including areas such as wall sharing. he cited citizenship and abyei

as being the two outstanding areas, but he was upbeat. for example, on demarcation. he uses the 80% figure in terms of agreement. the question really is how you view the au with all of this, particularly on north-south, specifically your thoughts on the role who serve has emerged as both the south and for door for in major role -- and darfur for a major role. at how do you think in a general will continue after the referendum? thank you. >> and let's also, we have representative from the government of sudan, deputy chief of mission. what you like to say something as well? >> thank you. thank you for -- sometimes your

views might be having, you're onerous is on some views that might give -- >> is the microphone on? >> i would like for us to in this critical time of sudan in history, there is both points which i think it might be raised on this. that political side of this historical moment, there is a friend which is recognize an outcome is expected to be recognized by the whole parties. the president said this, and vice president commented. at this moment also people should view optimistic about,

before they were very worried about this critical moment, how it goes. positive direction of recognition of this time, the piece of evidence on this time should be also recognized. there's also some worries, rumors and disinformation about this critical moment also here and there. but the challenge, this critical time, the challenge of the outcome which is coming in the coming weeks, and the worries about this new state might be in confrontation with the north. i think the visit of the president said it clear, the

outcome we be recognized. the challenge of issues regarding the citizenship, the security arrangements between the two in the area, abyei, and many other legal issues which you've mentioned here. the two sides now are negotiating. thabo mbeki is working with group, and the two sides now both are working on discussing these issues. vice president from center, they are negotiating. they are tabling these issues one by one. and one of the things mentioned, optimistic about many issues

that we so go forward. but what you hear of it, now people are optimistic that some of the overcoming the coming times. is this recognized, also did another satisfaction would be if the people of the citizenship also agreed upon, the constitutional vacuum which you mentioned, that there is now legislative in the south and the north. election come with parliament, regional parliament. and this issues also be discussed. of course, the other political, political parties as president said, that brought government, discussion with political.

but also regional and central parliament that would be in power. but this post-referendum issues is now under negotiations. locally between cut inside the country with the north and the south. these comments are waiting in abyei and now committee for us to get up to come with, there are many other challenges that you mentioned here, people know they are working. there's a delay also when the disagreement, so there is delay of, on, this is a challenge. but i think the people starting

to flow within a week will give, people are optimistic, are optimistic about the results. and how the people would respond to this would make the peace process, and not to go backwards. what i want to conclude, i think that the views which he shared, i think of it -- i hope that the people would adhere optimistic about themselves. president said and vice president also said it. i think there might be some good in the whole peace process. even in the north and the south. i hope that many will come, the

other side, the politics, the action. there will be peace in the coming time and we'll hear more cooperation between the north and the south in the coming times. spirit thanks for that, for those remarks. any responses to the questions we had, more details from ncp, internal dynamics and strength of the islamists, questioned long-term development in the south, whether the south will become economically self-sufficient, and then a question from the state department representative about are you being a little too gloomy about the efforts of the high level implementation and the post-referendum negotiations. >> thank you. let me start with the question from the state department, which is a little bit also touching on

my brother here from the embassy. actually i'm a little bit worried for what you say, because that's actually, to problems in sudan. but insurance of the au hiv, i'm not optimistic. the framework is very important but what i've seen, this is what happened so far. and it remembers the decision was taken in september last year when presented the report, the peace and security council mandated that a partner to become a high and limitation parliamentary and they did an excellent. much has been achieved and i think the framework itself, including the principles he is very important come and what important now is that those principles be communicated to

people because a lot of people don't know actually what is in this and what were in those principles. for example, the communities at the ground where now the recent active mobilization of the pdf of the tribes, along the borders, is that if that is communicated that there is no need, because issues are going to be resolved as my colleague here said. there is no need for military buildup. no need for -- on the contrary, efforts to go for something positive, something else. so those principles need to come. but still the referendum issues need to be discussed in the coming six months. and i think the african supported by the international community partners and so one is key, and is actually important that i think we saw that. but the point is that

unfortunately it is not mandated. they cannot bring the two parties to say come here, i need to discuss with you. there to facilitate the two parties to discuss and when they want, they can ask and they get to come at that process to give support. i don't mean here to imply they need to be mandated, but i think in the coming period the african union needs president to push these two parties to seek and discuss the referenda. i know there is this community, committees and so on, discussing a positive -- possible referenda. no discussion on referendum issues unless it is resolved. this is somebody that it sits next to the president. so anyhow, but still it is a

very, very important, and so i don't pessimistic, but if there is strategic relationship of which i alluded to in my presentation, if the two parties doesn't agree on what kind of form in principle, what is the former relationship? is a union? political separation but going into a union in terms of economics, the currency will be the same not only for -- will agree. the issue of citizenship we agreed. everybody remains if you want to be here or there, no need to keep the 24,000, no need to push the seventh or so one. so that is negative. it is not a positive. it is started by one of the senior ncp people saying not a single injection for southern. that is the government of national.

but i don't think, it is ncp government. then president bashir says no, no, no. we will protect with this, we will do that. and then comes, he merely followed by 20% have to go out from the secret service, consider them as foreigners. what kind of policy is this? i don't know how to describe it. if this is a policy for mutual and peaceful, you are setting a tone for very difficult confrontation on the positive round of discussions. >> i agree that there is a fundamental problems. and it's very difficult to shift from humanitarian assistance into, i have been in this field for a couple of years, and before coming to crisis group.

and definitely people need to shift the assistance into long-term, to adjust the pipeline of the human intelligence assistance and to get doctors for long-term so that it doesn't go out. and that's always the debate of that continuum. but for the south, get their independence, become a member of the united nation, the ss by their imf and in recommend world bank to give money for development, which is going to include employment. at the employment -- at this moment, there is no money for major development that can create jobs in south sudan. so the priority is to work with the security sector, to reform the security sector, to continue building the institutions. y. fostering date can political

consensus to accommodate those against the splm, so that when they are finished at least they can have a common ground where they can all move together. first, they need to address the issue of identity. a lot of people think seven is homogeneous. there is no south sudan identity i am again, when it becomes to elections, everybody goes to the constituency. that's why the issue top of some of the southerners say why do we need just because of that? small thing. but the people, the leaders at the top of the splm who are from abyei said no, no, no. this is very important. because imagining two years in south sudan, people say go to your constituents who are you? where are you from? if you say i am from part of the

north, who will vote for you to be a member of the government? you go to your constituencies on the other side. so that's why they won't be able to remain a part. so there is the issue of identity. they need to work. and the beginning of it is to set up the rule of the law. the rule of the land. where they need to agree and to put the political system for the inclusiveness, and then definitely if that is their we will be able to create the conditions from shifting from humanitarian assistance into a long-term rehabilitation, reconstruction, which is, it's going to be ideologically of course, on what ideology is the splm or is it an inclusive government to put that framework for reconstruction of government. definitely it is a challenge. finally, i come to the question i think which is a very serious question, and the issue of the

islamists. and i agree with you, it's not the uniform block and not a lot of deep understanding to the issues of sudan. people tend to think of ncp, south sudan. but if you want to really understand you have to go deeper into the islamic movement, then you'll understand why the cpa, it happened during the discussions, or maybe do a little, when there's possibility of fear agenda of sudan was lost and it was lost during the agreement. when the islamists didn't go on the agreement. that was the theory, for real united sudan, after the regime. islamists did want to go. then it was a transition come into the was an election.

all forces in sudan agreed to postpone the elections, but a constitutional conference to discuss about the constitution of sudan. the nature of the sudan a state and to abolish the september laws which is the sharia laws when they joined bashir. islamists refused, and when, imagine, when one became the prime minister, he formed maybe about five government, three of them are of them with islamists, brought back the islamists and that is where pdf and all these, splm was about to take. but when the international agreed support for splm, they were about to take these, that became a problem. and that's when they brought the military, route the message to prime minister singh either do something or we will change the regime. so they made the agreement. they agreed on the agreement to go and implement outcomes.

they agreed. and that, abolishing, not abolishing but to suspend the sharia laws come except to sudan as an array big, african but not an islamic. and to go for the constitutional review conference to review and put these constitution form an interim government with splm, political parties and all the civil society, the trade unions and so one can't add including the traditional. they all agreed. so after pressure, they moved from power from the government. he formed again i government. and he agreed finally on the constitutional conference. that would have led, but who

then, really quickly, made it coup? they did want that to happen. they removed a democratic. no, close the door for democratic conference and we know what happened. so that's why halfway the idea is to create that islamic country with the islamic organization of the islamic movement that, you know, how do i say, that it into that thinking, solidify the organization. of course, creating a system related to all the tribes and groups and so on. and then the rumors of the state.

and then to go for federalism and decentralized, but they took it wrong. the military was supposed to move after three months, three years. they disguised military, the islamists into military form with office. it was supposed to move after three years. that's what they agreed, to make the coup, put them in prison to nobody knows he has an islamist. but they were hiding. they were doing that. they were driving the whole thing. and then the military took a three years come and to start to put the constitution of sudan, federalism, decentralization. the military refused. they like it because they have been three years there. so they refused. so okay, president bashir become the president. his vice president who died later, forgot his name, vice

president. and then the military became the power. president bashir remained and that continued until today. and so they had discussion and division until when the agreed on the federalism, and the decentralization system. and also that the army could go back to the civilians to will and to go back to the shura. it is divided. and so what remains now with ncp, it was always a problem, always a problem when oil is discovered. and so that became a problem. and so when the money start to float up, the system became so strong, and it bit by bit that system, it went into ethnic pattern is -- patronization. you will see whose type is this, to the government, to the position, to everything.

they clinched the secret services, the army. they fired the generals, the police, the civil service and everything. that's a system now very serious. but now with the cessation coming of course people are asking questions for coup so. you ruled for 20 years. you did a couple of agreements. the cpa came. you didn't maintain sudan and you want to continue ruling sudan. on what basis? on what basis do you want to continue growing sudan? so the ncp have got a question. the present versus the future of the party and the political party. the party versus the future of sudan and its affiliates again. also the stability of finding solution to darfur. and also the president versus the whole future of sudan. between brackets and issues, those three fundamental

questions need to be asked. we think islamists, if they want to maintain, to continue as a viable political party to play, that's why there is a those divisions within even the current. and i can go further ,-com,-com ma but i can see eyes looking at me. but it's a major, major question so that's what i question here talking about the present so on. i understand i'm cities. it is about what are the key issues you want to do in the coming very. possible referendum issues you have to address the full of the other partners to become state. that state has to be separated from the party. are they willing to do that? if not, that will continue to struggle to find a viable lasting peace in sudan. spectacular much. i'm very reluctant to stop in mid-flow. i very much appreciate your analysis. i'm afraid we're pretty much out of time now.

do you have anything to add? fair enough. look, i would just like to thank you, both of you, for coming and going to take part on what is a momentous time right now with a referendum on the way. and i'm sure you'll agree, despite the notes of some gloominess and pessimism that sudan has come a long way to this point at least. but, of course, as the challenges, big challenges lie ahead, both internally within north and south, and how these two areas, if they are two separate, manage the diverse people, the interest within their borders. so please join me in thanking our guests fouad hikmat and comfort ero. [applause] spin and thanks for your interest and we will be following the referendum and beyond and you can find more information on our website. they will be putting out a new

report on sudan shortly within -- [inaudible] >> there is a report that someone is working on it. actually on the big question. islamists and the future of sudan after secession. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] >> coming up, a conversation on u.s.-china military relations. after that, a look at the shootings in tucson, arizona. the president leads the country in a moment of silence. we'll also hear from arizona's governor jan brewer. on tomorrow's "washington journal", david chavern will discuss jobs and the u.s.

economy. after that, representative don edwards unreported's agenda. later, as a tax season approaches, nina olson joins us. "washington journal" each morning at 7:00 a.m. eastern here on c-span. the national commission on the bp deepwater rise in oil spill will issue its final report tomorrow. we will have live coverage at 10:00 a.m. eastern. later in the morning, remarks by judiciary committee chairman patrick leahy of vermont. he will discuss the upcoming agenda in the 112th congress. live coverage from the newseum begins at 11:00 a.m. eastern. defense secretary robert gates is in china for talks on military cooperation. earlier, the nixon center hosted a discussion looking at china's growing military and what goals

secretary gates might accomplish on the trip. this is an hour, 40 minutes. >> good afternoon, everybody. welcome to the nixon center. i am pleased with the turnout. if i could remind everyone to turn off your cell phones, please. please turn them all the way off, not just to vibrate, just reduce the electromagnetic interference in the room. i will introduce the speakers and moderate the question and answer period. we will try to wrap up by 2:00 p.m. eastern, if not earlier. first, let me welcome our speakers. we have a great panel of

experts, and definitely coming to talk about a complicated and very important issue at exactly the right time. as all of you know, secretary gates left for beijing this weekend and is spending two days, three full days in beijing. he met yesterday with -- had and hewith a geneareral met with the vice president. tomorrow, he will meet with president hu jintao. secondaryit the pla artillery headquarters and he will make a trip to the great wall. this is not tourism, but it is a great opportunity for him to see the long history of china's defense infrastructure. [laughter] so i think his trip marks a fairly important moment in the

bilateral relationship. it's been a rather tense 12 months since last year when high-level ties were virtually at a standstill, cut off after the announcement of arms sales in taiwan at the beginning of last year. i think there were a lot of incidents that we watched carefully, snubs both ways, insults' in a very public forum, and a mismatch expectation. hopefully, this is the first or one significant meeting that will help but the relationship back on track. i do not think there are any expectations for civic and breakthroughs on this trip, but there were two -- for significant breakthroughs on this trip, but there were two that were announced last night. the pla general who is the chief of the general staff will visit

washington, d.c., at some point this year. a date has not been set. i think there was also an agreement that was written up in "the new york times", as they put it, "an establishment of a working group to talk about more talks." so at least we see a consensus building on both sides that there should be more talks. that was one of secretary gates's key messages, that talks should be sustained and not cut off for political purposes. obviously, there is a great deal of uncertainty and mutual distrust between the two sides. we have three panelists that are our watchers of both the u.s. and chinese defense establishments. who can give us a their interpretations and their impressions, expectations on both sides and outcomes for this visit. i will briefly introduce them both.

their biographies are out front on the podium, so please help yourself to that, as well as a guest list for the event. but i will first start with mr. vago muradian who's the editor of "defense news". he was previously the managing editor of "defense daily international," and he covered global operations at "air force times." next, we have the director of the chinese national affairs of the defense university. previously, he worked at the monterey institute for international studies, where he served as the director of the east asia and non-proliferation

program from 1999-2003. previously, he worked on asian policy issues at the u.s. air force as an officer. lastly, we have dr. james mulvenon, the vice president of defense group inc's intelligence division. and he is one of the foremost experts on chinese c-four isr, and defense research and development organizations and policy. he is the author of "soldiers of fortune,"which detailed the rise and fall of the pla's ventures in capitalism. with that, we will start with vagao. o. >> thank you very much. as the late richard holbrooke

one said, the most important bilateral relationship is the one between the u.s. and china, and how to shape their relationship is something that has consumed an enormous amount of time by success of the administration's, given that that relationship touches every element of u.s. policy, global interest, and just about everything and all -- involving china seems to be hard. china is essential to progress on the thorniest issues on that north korea, iran, energy, etc.. in the eyes of some in washington, it is a growing security issue in its own rite. while tactics continue to be debated, there is consensus that they need to work to engage china to foster a greater understanding and a greater openness. the last thing anybody in washington wants is to have this relationship go sideways and return chianna into an enemy.

improving the spirit of understanding is one of the secretaries goals. nobody has any of it -- any illusions that there will not be more significant challenges coming down the pike. and, obviously, some of the progress we have seen is something very important. everybody in the administration has continuously said that to build a lasting relationship you really need to increase the dialogue, increase the openness and communication, reduce the risk of this population and reduce the risk of misunderstanding. china has used that as a bargaining chip, unfortunately. while improving the short-term is a valuable through new working groups, the future is somewhat more challenging. transforming -- china claims to

want a military befitting its global status as a rising power. the trouble is its actions, is lack of transparency, and clear intentions replace the u.s. as asia's hegemon are what are worrying the region and folks in washington. under the hide and bide strategy that china has adopted for some time, there has been steady progress to what folks in washington viewed as the anitti- to force theial u.s. out of asia. wh