aerial eradication. they do spraying in columbia. they do other kinds of eradication. some percentage of that budget goes to contractors who engage in an element of the u.s. strategy to combat drug trafficking. host: we have an e-mail from a writer in tennessee who writes "your statistics only account for those weapons traced, not those stolen from the mexican government, which the mexican government will not acknowledge, and those brought in from third countries. a.t.f. is intentionally exaggerating this in order to crack down on u.s. gun makers, and has been caught red-handed." guest: the percentage of those

we trace, some come from guatemala. some are traced back to the united states. in other words they are purchased in the u.s., go through the caribbean, and come up through guatemala. then there are other sources. no one has those numbers. the numbers suggest the majority of the weapons confiscated and traced original nature at some point in the united states. host: we have been talking to eric olson, senior associate at the wood row wilson international institute for scholars. thank you for being on the program. guest: thank you. host: tomorrow, monday, michael steele, republican national committee chairman will be here to talk to us about the 2012 republican presidential field and how it is shaping up. .

i am honored to be performing for those of you here tonight as well as the handful of people watching at home on c-span. [laughter] c-span is the official network for wide shots of empty chairs. every time i tune into c-span,

it looks like they just had a fire drill. c-span is one paid electric bill away from being a radio station. -- one unpaid electric bill away from being a radio station. did you know that every day from 4:00 until 0:00 the host a show on c-span? -- until 5:00, he hosts a show on c-span? host: thank you very much for watching this edition of "washington journal." "newsmakers" is up next. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011]

>> this morning on c-span's "newsmakers," a campaign on -- a discussion on campaign 2012. then federal reserve chairman ben bernanke on the current federal budget debate between president obama and congress. our financial coverage continues with virginia governor bob mcdonald on the fiscal situation of his state and later, admiral mike mullen's remarks on military lead leadership and the middle east. >> joining us on "newsmakers" is jack kimball, the chair of the new hampshire republican party and matt strawn of the chair of the iowa republican party joining us from manchester and des moines, respectively. here at the table is jonathan

karl of abc news, senior political correspondent, and david catanese, the national political correspondent for politico. thank you for joining us. jack kimball, let me begin with you with donald trump's visit to new hampshire this past week. what impact will his potential candidacy have or has it had on the other republicans in this field? >> hard to tell right now. it was an interesting visit. he certainly draws a crowd. but i think that what we're going to see here in new hampshire is -- and we do a pretty good job of it, we tend to do a good job of adding the candidates. he has to get in front of the people like the rest of the candidates. we have a broad field, a very good field and donald trump is going to find if he's going to be successful in new hampshire he'll have to return many times and he'll have to do the retail politicking that is required here. >> and matt strawn from your perspective in terms of organization on the ground in iowa, has it had an impact on others in this field? >> well, i can tell you going around the state whether it's talking to county central

committees or chamber of commerce groups or rotary clubs, there is an interest in mr. trump. but as chairman kim -- kimball indicated, iowa is just like new hampshire in that it requires retail, hand to hand campaigning. so for any candidate, whether it's mr. trump or some of the other potential candidates, the real test will be, are they going to be in our coffee shops and our community centers here in iowa, out in the fields talking to farmers, asking for their votes and giving iowa caucus goers a chance to ask difficult questions one-on-one? there is that expectation that not only will you probably get to meet the person you ultimately caucus for but you're going to get a chance to ask him a question. >> jonathan karl. >> i want to ask you about a guy who did quite well out in iowa last time around, mike huckabee. he's one we're all kind of waiting on. the conventional wisdom around here has been huckabee's probably not going to run. but now that you've had so many others, haley barbour, are you seeing any activity from

huckabee out in iowa? is there any indication that he's ready to make a step? when was the last time you met with him? >> we haven't seen many indications on the ground. there is a group of his supporters around that has created a seemingly organic group, i believe, stuck on hurricane, is what they've called it and they're organizing events around the state. but a number his senior leadership team from the 2010 and 2008 caucus season has actually been spread across various campaigns. one has signed up with governor to lenty. another has signed up with congresswoman bachmann. a couple other of the leadership is with judge roy moore. it might be tough to assemble the leadership he had because as everybody knows here in iowa, it is a very retail-heavy process with about is,-- ,800 precincts where you need somebody organizing in those precincts. even though governor huckabee starts with more of a head start than he did four years ago introducing himself to iowans, i don't think he can put off a decision thatch longer because

we're seeing all these other campaigns really start to organize, start to have town hall meetings, start to sign up county leaders and precinct chairs. >> when was the last time you spoke with the guy? >> i have not recently spoke within governor huckabee. >> david catanese. >> do you believe mitt rahmny, one, is the unequivocal front runner in your state, and, two, does he have to win new hampshire to win the nomination? >> i do think he's certainly right now the unequivocal front runner in our state and part of the reason is of course he lives here part of the time. so he's quite well known. i've seen him many times so he's been active. but i think personally going forward, you're going to see a lot more activity. he's going to be here a lot more and we already have ron paul here today, michele bachmann, the campaigns are all picking up and moving forward.

i think you're going to see some real intense activity here and i'm sure matt's going to see the same thing. >> looking at riss strategy that he may not play as hard in iowa and then try to win it in florida later on down the road, doesn't very to win snume isn't that a must-win for him? >> i think it's critically important and i would say personally going forward that this state is going to be very, very critical for him and several of the others as well. he has to do well here. >> and matt strawn, let me ask you, is the organization for the romney campaign different at this stage than it was four years ago in your state? >> well, that's no question there's a different campaign going on in iowa when you compare it to four years ago at this time. by this time four years ago not only was governor romney's campaign ramping up but as was senator mccain and mayor giuliani had a presence and things have started much slower here but we haven't seen governor romn, ey in iowa this

year. when it comes to campaign strategy, you know, that's not for the chairman of the iowa party to speculate on. i'll let the high-priced consultants and advisors make those decisions for the various campaigns. >> let me give chauns to do one little bit of campaign strategy. would it be a mistake for m.i.t. romney to skip iowa? >> i think it's a mistake for any candidate that wants to not only get our nomination but be president of the united states to not have a presence in iowa. iowa returns in the general election to that swing state stat us that we enjoyed historically. so if you're going to be here vigorously campaigning, if you are a nominee, for iowa's six electoral votes in november of 2011, then i think it would be great to have a head start by having a great, robust, vigorousing for you here in the state in 2011. >> it looks like other candidates' strategy is to skip iowa, like john huntman.

what are you hearing about huntman? is there any buzz on the ground among republican activists about his campaign? >> right now, and i can honestly say i haven't spoken to him myself, and i haven't seen much activity or any campaign formation as yet, there's been a little bit of buzz, but we haven't seen him either. so we'll see what develops in the coming weeks. if he's going to really get serious in new hampshire he's going to have to get here pretty soon. >> if mike huckabee doesn't run, does that open it up for michele bachmann to win that caucus state and do you see a frontrunner, someone that can coalesce those votes if mike huckabee decides against a bid? >> well, i think we've got a wide-open field right now and based on the republicans i talk to, we had about 120,000 republicans turn out on caucus night in 2008. now just last june in our republican primary where we had

contested races up and douth down, we had about 220,000 iowa republicans turn out. so the potential exists for dramatically increased caucus elect rat on the republican side -- electorate on the republican side, especially request with the democrats not having any activity. the candidates that are able to capture, maybe it's that newest caucus goer, someone has become recently involved, i think that's going to be the story going into the entire caucus season, is who can motivate those new caucus goers to get involve and really grow the size of the caucus electorate and that may be michele bachmann, that may be newt gingrich, it may be any of the candidates that are here in iowa asking for our votes. >> i know you didn't mention donald trump there but i have to press you on trump because i know you invited him to the lincoln day dinner that's coming up in june. do you believe he has real ideas to bring to the table or is he just going to be able to raise your party a lot of money when he come in? >> it's not for the chairman of

the party who the is neutral in this process to speculate on the various strength of the candidates. [laughter] i know you guys would love that. but one thing we've tried to do differently in the iowa party this caucus season is not have the major candidate cattle calls where eight candidates get five minutes each to speak but showcase them individually. and donald trump will headline our annual lincoln day dinner on june 10 and we're anticipating probably the largest attended and most successful fundraiser that the lincoln party has had. but we've offered other candidates opportunities around the state as well and our chairman series, i had rick santorum earlier this week and we have plans on the book to do there's events throughout the caucus season. i know there's a lot of interest in what mr. trump has to say, but at the end of the day, whether it's donald trump or any other potential candidates, it's that close they have to make directly with the iowa caucus goer, looking them in the eye and giving them a chance to ask tough questions because the caucus process isn't one that is

won by giving speeches to thousands or those with the largest bank account who can run the most campaign ads and i think that's one of the reasons that iowa, new hampshire continue to enjoy the position we do. because i believe as chairman kimball said, we're very discerning and deliberative, we're not star struck and not shy to ask a tough question of a national figure. >> that's right. there's been -- you've seen in the polls republicans not really satisfied with the field as it stands. governor haily said she'd like to see some more candidates come in. but what's your sense? we're about to see that window close, i would imagine. do you guys, either one of you, see any indication that there could be somebody new coming on the scene? somebody that's not been part of this process so far, whether it be a bush, a christi, even a mitch daniels? any sign that have happening out there or could potentially happen? when does the window really close on that? >> i think, you know, from my perspective -- >> oh, i'm sorry.

>> i think there's been a lot of talk about somebody that might surprise us. i don't see who that person would be on the scene. i think donald trump was a surprise and he's jumped out on the scene and i say that seriously. he certainly resonates and got a lot of attention here. i think as far as new hampshire is concerned, not much different than iowa, you really got to come here and get asked the tough questions, look people in the eye and talk to them. a lot of people talk about chris christi. i think chris christi, and all the candidates i think can take a lesson from the way chris christi present hims self which is he's really a stand-up guy, he's outspoken, he's willing to take the gloves off. and i think america's looking for real leadership and somebody that is willing to do that. that person, and i think certainly with the broad field we have, one or two of the candidates that -- and they're all good candidates, i've met

most of them, but one or two of them, if they come out like that and they come out swinging, i think that's going to resonate. >> i think to the initial premise of the question, i don't sense at least talking to iowa caucus goers that it's a dissatisfaction with the field, but i think it's going to be a very deliberative process because iowa republicans understand the stakes of making the right decision. we understand the stakes of what four more years of the obama administration means to america. so i don't take the fact that iowa republicans haven't coalesced behind a candidate or two yet as evidence that they're dissatisfied. but i think that they want to be very discerning because they understand that as both republicans and americans, this is a decision we have to get right. so i think you are going to see a little more deliberative nature of the caucus process. >> let me ask you about the state deadline for new hampshire to determine when your primary is going to be held. what is the deadline and when will florida decide when it will

hold its primaries? >> glad you brought this up. i think it's critically important that all of the states follow the rules that were established a year ago at the convention. florida of course approved their original position which would have been around the first week of march and i quite frankly think, and i think that they'll get the support from matt on this, they can be king makers getting back to their original positions. they're talking about january 31 right now. what that does is backs all of us up and groups us much closer together and i think that's not beneficial to the party, certainly not beneficial to the candidate. but we have a state law, a lot of folks don't know that, in the state of new hampshire, that requires us to be first in the nation. our secretary of state and we've already met with him, whatever happens we will have to do it what we have to do to make sure we're first in the nation primary. iowa goes first with their caucus. but we really and truly want to

impress heavily upon florida that i think their original position is a much more impacting position than trying to move back to january 31. and i also know that chairman prebus is going to really come down hard on anyone that violates the rules. we as a party should be about following the rules and i can't emphasize that enough. >> jonathan karl. >> it's a battle you have to fight every four years. i wanted to switch subjects. congress has been on recess, there have been town hall meetings, we were at a town hall meeting this week, with frank begin thea, quite heated about the paul ryan budget plan. what are both of you hearing and maybe, matt, you can start us on this, what are you hearing about reaction to paul ryan's medicare plan and how this is going to reverberate as we move forward towards the caucuss? >> that's a great question, especially here in iowa where we have a very senior-heavy

population and as you know they're among your more active voting participants as well. we have not seen the kind of uproar that is appearing at some of these town halls across the country. what i hear going across the state is people actually understand the fiscal constraints this country is in. the long-term obligations that we need some significant chalinge changes if we're going to be able to provide social security and medicare for future generations. on an earlier question chairman kimball talked about what republicans in his state are looking for is leadership. that's what i'm hearing from republicans here in iowa is they like to see the bold leadership coming out of washington. that was the message that the voters tried to send here last november. i know republicans are very pleased to see -- iowa republicans are very pleased to see congressional republicans leadaing and showing there's a clear difference with a republican congress in leadership facing these cry seist cease that face our country and we're preparing for

two major congressional races with steve king against former first lady vill sack and then congressman latham against boswell. you'll get to see if congressman boswell and vill sack try the tired old attacks on trying to take away a seniors' medicare or their social security, i think that's not going to be a successful strategy because marines understand we need to make tough choices and we need leadership. >> in new hampshire and i'm very proud of paul ryan and the work he's done, i think that he's been very pensive and put a lot of thought and effort into developing this budget. but the big issue of the day turns out to be, you know, the block granting of medicaid and we all hear, the feedback i'm getting, think that's a stupendously good idea because it allows the states to determine how they're going to spend that money and it certainly saves just billions of dollars. so most of the republicans i'm

talking with like that approach because of the latitude it gives you in the cost savings that are involved. >> both of you are going to have competitive congressional races but going back to the individual members in your states, i've seen approval ratings that show both representative bass and guinta, their failure rate rgs in the 30's. why did voters turn on them so quickly up there in new hampshire? >> i really don't believe those polls and i will tell you, both of these congressmen are working extraordinarily hard and doing a great job. i spoke with congressman guinta just the day before yesterday and we speak regularly. i spoke to him a couple of nights ago. and both of them stay in touch with the constituent here's. i think right now you've got a flux going on, you see what's going none wisconsin, ohio, iowa, and even here to an extent. there's some turmoil going on

with respect to unions and the legislation that a lot of the states are in a position that they have to pass. and so i think that that does have an affect but it's temporarily. i'm very confident that both of these men will win re-election. >> you came from the tea party movement, jack kimball will tea party supporters and organizers determine in your state in new mexico, who wins the new hampshire primary? ? >> you've got to imagine that's very common question that's asked of me. my response basically is this, people that come out of the tea parties, we're looking for some basic things from any and all of these candidates and that is their belief in small government. reduced spending. tax cuts. fiscal responsibility, individual liberty and getting back to our constitutional values. any of the candidates, and i see most of the candidates certainly in our party right now, espouse those things, any of those candidates that do espouse those things will be very attractive

to any of the tea party movement. >> and matt strawn in iowa will will the christian conservatives, the base of the republican party, determine who wins the iowa caucuses? >> well, i think you take each caucus as its own unique set of issues and one thing that i'm hearing as i go around the state is, you know, your traditional caucus goers want to know that the candidate shares their perm con vingses on cultural issues but i think in past caucuses that may have ended the conversation. this time it just starts the conversation. because they have the same concerns that chairman kimball indicated, getting back to constitutional principles, balancing our budget, incentivizing private sector job creation, leadership on entitlement reform. while they're going to want to make sure their candidate shares their core cultural convictions, the conversation doesn't end there this cycle because of the issues facing america. >> going back to the ryan plan and basically the provision on medicare and how that would change, the way i understand it

is it would be a voucher program and what we're hearing, a lot of these town hall meetings is, what happens when that voucher, whether it's $7,000 or $15,000, runs out for that senior? how do you explain what happens to the senior when the money runs out for a benefit that, you know, has been basically expected for decades? how does the republican party explain that to some of these seniors that are showing up at the town hall meetings? >> i think the first part is, you know, what paul ryan is doing is very wise. it's getting out there and explaining what is in the legislation, not ducking and running from the issue and that's what we're seeing here in iowa as well with our republican members of congress. going out there and holding their town hall meetings, holding their listening sessions, something that their

democrat colleagues didn't do during the health care debate here in iowa last session. but i think one thing that we need to do is have that education and i think that speaker boehner and the republican leadership has done a fine job equipping our candidates with that information to go out there and talk to our constituents and making sure that they understand that we're not talking about, especially with those current retirees, we're not talking about taking away coverage that they currently enjoy. we're trying to make sure that successive generations have the ability to have that kind of safety net as well. >> jonathan karl. >> so we heard a very direct answer from chairman kimball when asked about who is the front runner in new hampshire. i'm hoping we can get the same from you. who is the frontrunner right now in iowa? >> i think it's wide open here. i really do. i think it's too early to tell because, one, you know, you don't know what the ultimate size of the caucus electorate is going to be. and the campaigns here are just starting to sign up their leadership, their legislative leaders, their county chairs. we talked earlier about the window closing.

we had the major event in iowa in the middle of august. and that's the kind of organizing activity where you'll really get a true sense of which of these campaigns have a ground game. as someone who is -- go ahead. >> it is fascinating to me just how wide open it is, especially in iowa. you can think back when was the last time we had at this point in a cycle in iowa, a caucus look as wide open as it is right now without any clear frontrunner whatsoever? >> you'd have to go back a number of years for that. and one reason that i think i touched on earlier is that the iowa caucus goer, republican caucus goer, understands the stakes, understands the stakes of four more years of an obama administration whose policies are completely against our beliefs and principles. so they want to make sure they get it right but there's no question it's been a slower start. we still have a few individuals who will are deliberating whether or not they're going to run suched a governor daniels so

i think as the field continues to shake out very rapidly you're going to see more and more activity on the ground in iowa as these campaigns try and flex their muscle and show their viability at the straw poll. >> let me respond to your colleague notice new hampshire democratic party this past week filing a complaint with the federal election commission calling mitt romney's fundraising wreaking of enron-style accounting. saying that he has used his political action committee to fund his presidential campaign. >> well with, you know, you heard me say that he's the perceived frontrunner probably here because he's known so well in new hampshire the dynamic is different than iowa certainly with respect to that. but quite frankly i think it's an attack on the frontrunner and that's what's going on right now and i think moving forward, mitt romney is a smart guy, he know what is the rules are and i have every confidence that this is going to wind up being what i think it is, a smoke and mirrors. >> so no irregularities as far as you're concerned? >> it's not my purr view, i really don't know. i just know that right away, and

i read this article when i came in that morning, and i shook my head. it's already starting. >> if mitt romney is the front runner in new hampshire, who is the big withest threat to mitt romney up there? >> i think that, and you're going to see people like polente coming on. he's forming a broad staff. we also have rick santorum here, herman cane, ron paul, michele bachmann is gaining some traction here as well. and they're all going to gain ground. i think that the candidates that i just mentioned and of course newt gingrich was here last week, certainly resonates. it's a broad and i think talented and wonderful field. so they're all going to -- they're all serious they're going to gain ground and it's going to make for an interesting, interesting race. >> what about john huntsman? can an ambassador from the obama administration really become the g.o.p. nominee?

and win the granite state? >> hard to tell. i don't know him very well, have never met him. hard for me to personally evaluate. there's not been a lot of talk, at least here in the state so far about this. so it's harder to me to comment on that. -- hard for me to comment on that. >> it sounds to me like you think it's pretty much a long shot unless there's something pretty dramatically changes. >> it's hard to know. i'd have to sit down and talk to him, get to know him, get a better idea what have mr. huntman's about. i don't have that za d.a. at that information, other than what i've read. i think for me it's important for me to meet these folks, it's important for me to sit down with them, it's important for me to see them interacting with the people here and the others that i've mentioned, i've met them all and seen them all interacting and i have a food dwoo -- i have a good feel for them. >> how does that process work? how often are you hearing from these various candidates? i knowou