has it become evident he will not be a candidate? >> it sure sounded that way. the chairman of the iowa party as it a couple points. yes softspoken to amend if you come into the playground in iowa, you talk to the chairman. yes i had any conversations with them. and the other thing about key figures from the last campaign are already locked up with other candidates. if he does run, it's all about iowa. >> i thought it was interesting that jack kimball was forceful about saying that romney was the front runner. we tried to ask him who was the threat, i thought was interesting he did not mention john huntsman because his strategy would be based on going after the john mccain coalition. he's talking to the same advisers. i thought that was an

interesting contrast. he almost threw cold water on him. >> not to mention the rest of the west. >> and there are two commencement speeches. >> south carolina will be the first one. he arrives back from china, free to finally engage. he has this campaign that has been built but he has not been a part of it. they built a whole campaign apparatus without speaking to the ambassador. he has not been free to engage in political activity and it has to catch fire pretty quickly. >> we saw this with the democrats. hillary clinton did not get the

delegates. what you hearing? >> i bet that the calendar stays the same because it usually does. none of them are ignoring florida. there is a grounding they're saying you better get an line. play ind we're going to florida and meet the voters there. >> the fact that time but has the -- is that way into this? they can penalize florida by saying its delegates don't get seated. how do you do that if your convention is in tampa? they can say their delegates don't get the same weight, but a florida does go early and of these candidates are playing in florida, the actual delegate count won't matter.

if it's not decisive, it will be a major factor. >> met ronnie's and tire strategy is based on florida. he's not going to play and my eye out, he has to win new hampshire but can he win south carolina? florida's big for his campaign. >> gentleman, thank you for being with us this sunday. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] >> now, a discussion of how the 2012 presidential campaign is shaping up in the early voting states of iowa and the hampshire. this is about 45 minutes. "washington journal" continues. host: for the next 45 minutes we'll talk 2012 can michael and

matt. talk to us about the strength of president barack obama as we look towards 2012? >> he comes in with about 45 percent approval that's not great to be honest with you. by historical standards you've seen presidents with these numbers at this point elects and seen them losef you look back to reagan he was about 40%. obamis right in the middle right now. shaky economy. slow recovery. a 50/50 chance at re-election. maybe better than that. >> numbers speak for themselves. lot ofpoling. i point you to the pole that showed 57 percent. i believe america is to be wrong track. i believe through a specific numbers, there's going to be really important for the 2012

election. right track. wrong track is obviously the job approval. those four numbers will tell us whether the president gets re-elected. host: to the front runners in the republican party and is there one person you think is going to burst out of the scene in very short order? >> very hardo say. it's the most wide open. and wide open republican primary in a generation. i would say there's probably a pack of three setting them self as part and i'll leave a fourth for a wild card. the three are mitt romney who is in some wayshe front runner from having run last time. the former govern. tim from minnesota and i think governor mitch dams no, maniels indiana. it could be mike heck abbey.

heck abbey. we're also excited about the opportunity to beat president obama. host: mike, does the white house favor running against any particular republican or is the strategy or are they going with a general strategy as apposed to something spific targeted towards what they think is the front runer? >> i think right nowhey worry about their own message. look at the field and see folks they would be more than happy to run against. michle and a sarah palin and donald trump as all people they likely would be easily defeatable. with the rest of the crowd, you know i think to be honest i probably would put the height houses chances at under 50% if there were a stronger field of republicans. somebody strong may emerge. we're not seeing anybody with particular strong strength.

host: presidential politics. that's what we're talking today. republican strategist. founder of the potomac strategist group. give us a call. (202) 737-0002 for democrats. republicans, (202) 737-0001. independents. (202) 628-0205. you can also send us messages via e-mail. cspan.org. reminder we're having problems with twitter this morning so if you want to send a message electronically send it to our e-mail address. michael, do you consider right now with the that this being may of 2011, that we're late in the campaign for candidate to get started late running for - if there's anyone that thinks about

running in the democratic party or republicans for that matter. late or is this about right time for them to get? >> think the republican field is slow to get settled. i think last cycle we saw you didn't need to get in quite that early and certainly needed to raise money but at the end of the day. when a republican emerges they're not going to have proble r raising money. certainly you want to putour organization together and planning it out. host: matt is now t time to get in the fight? >> it's getting there. the first thing is the pole in august if you want to make a real run in iowa you have to be in the straw pole and can't get in that just a week before. you have to be organized. all 99 counties those folks

expect you to be out there. we're getting to the point if you're not starting to do the things in terms of hiring consultants and donors to your team you're making your challenge more difficult in likely a field of 8-10 candy dates. is there a possibility you could have a late entry in the primary. september, october. somebody like a chris, cristy or paul ryan? sure it's possible but you have issues regarding ballot access because your missing deadlines. you know, i think if you're going to run a good organiz campaign and want to try to compete in the early states and primaries across the country overtime get in here quick i think. host: first call from sheryl on the line for independents? caller: good morning. i have a question for the republican strategist. i was wondering with all we're seeing on t.v. lately why he

didn't mention donald trump on the republican ticket. he made it clear that's how he would run and he can beat president obama. that's my question. thank you. host: matt? guest: he's not only a not serious he'll never be the republican nominee or the president of the united states. you know, polls right now are about name i.d.. donald trump is not a serious individual in terms of public policy in leading this country. i think he's filling the void right now. lot of candidates are not fully in. still exploring and keeping their heads down organizing raising money. but at the end of the day i hope he does not run and he may choose to for his own ego but he not a serious candidate. i know of no serious republican that would like him to be our nominee.

host: akron, ohio. caller: i'd like to make a comment about donald trump running. a lot of people are saying that - you know - he's goofy and crazy and no one will ever vote for him. but i think one of the things we're really missing here is the true spirit of what he's doing. i think that here is a guy that doesn't need to be president and doesn't want to be president. he wants to help the country. he wants to give up four years of a very successful enjoyable life to be president because he doesn't like what he sees. i think the problem that we have here is that this government has failed more and more with the more of the advent of professional politicians. we have people that have really never had jobs, they have only

been congressman and senators and what we need more of - i believe - is people like donald trump. although it may not be him, but people that are willingo step u and sacrifice four years to beacon congress man and senators and get rid of the professional politician. host: larry in ohio. michael, does the presence, let's say of donald trump, is that opening the doors you think to if not his candidacy, other people that want to model themselves after what trump has been saying politically? philosophically? >> i say there's an onn politics and perhaps in presidential politics for somebody with a strong business record. i don't think donald trump is that person. he bankrupted his own business so i don't think it's him.

i think what he's trying to do is jump on the moment. i don't think he's really a berther. i think he's looking for away to get an extra headline in politics to see if he can take off. not sure what his ideology is. i hoped matt would say he was one of the front runners. it would be helpful. host: back to the phone calls. next call comes from california. mark on our line for democrats. ahead. caller: it's eureka, california. goodorning, america. wanted to always say that. what i'd like to see about the field of field of candidates for the republican party. republican party thinks that the rich should pay less taxes.

and i think that personally the people know that it's got to be shared sacrifice, not on the back of the lower income and middle income which is about gone, and i just wanted to say also that you forgot one budget. the people's budget. host: mark in eureka, california. we'll leave it there. matt? talk to us about march perception. >> tax the rich is poll lar economic message. one that some people called for at different times in history. ultimately what you want is for the economy to grow. and so we're not seeing the level of economic growth today we should be seeing. we pointed to two specific things. g.d.p down to 3.1 percent.

we're not seeing the kind of growth coming out of a recession we've seen in history. i would point all the viewers to an opportunity-op-ed. that looks at all the historical information and the average growth for american comg out of a recent. this economy is absolutely under performed in that sense. we're 8.4 percent. many states are in here in 10%. i don't understand if you raise taxes on the rich which includes a large number of individuals that file business as individuals. i don't see how raising taxes on employers a particular small business employers where 70 percent of jobs are created will help our economy grow. host: we're talking about the 2012 president sweepstakes. next up the new york on the line for independents.

jared? caller: hello. i'm in new york. i'm an independent. member of the independent party in new york. i just want to say, i don't feel like i he any candidate in this - coming up. i mean obama is really a terrible disappointment, and on the other hand. republicans are total fraud. i think they're just bought and paid for by corporate. democrats are just rented. nobody is coming up with the obvious solutions to some of the issues. i mean - give me one? i work from outside a hospital for 25 years in patient as counts and five years for other hospitals and i'm on veteran's healthcare. it's pretty good. and it's cap tat services.

it's not insurance. you don't get health insurance. at least in 2007 it was 68 percent per person cost of medicare and it was 60 percent of the per person cost of medicaid in new york state. more speciperspective actuallynw york. but you get preppy comprehensive. if only with medicaid. start and tell the states you want medicaid. fine. government will even pick up the larger share of it but you have to offer services. host: michael, is there anybody you see on the horizon that speaks to his concerns? >> veteran's care. with regard. the republican budget plan. the ryan plan takes us in the opposite plan. move as way from head care and

s toward as system that gives a voucher on a private insurance. it's not going to do anything to hold down costs. the private sector does not have a history of holding down the cost of healthcare. healthcare costs are rising and we're not doing anything to keep them in check. veterans care is how you might be able to do that. the move away from medicare and toward as system of private vouchers takes us in the private vouchers way. we'll see the average senior citizen picking up the costs. host: in the baltimore sun. the headline. palin is seen evewhere but iowa. she has almost no (i the swushl area. is this assign she'll not be a declared candidate for the presidency in 2012. >> has a very big decision to

make. has a somewhat ancillary team that doesn't share ty're thinking with a wide range of folks. i think she can get in as late as september or october and still be in the strong position. she has a tremendous support o evangelicals and home schoolers. she has to decide is the life she has an a king makeer in the republican party someone that's been able to success financially the way she had not in previous life is that life worth giving up for presidency. that you talk to 8-10 candidates and do you have a chance to realistically beat president barack obama. on the scale of republicans running. although i do like governor palin. i think she's more towards the bottom but at th top when it comes to the primary. ho host calls the potomac

strategy group and said, matt should i get in the race? what would you tell her? >> there's a move on the right if you go back to the three candidates that set themselves apart. i ten enforcem don't think any themselves apart. there's an opportunity for her. we need to put forward the strongest candidate to win the general election. they need to be fiscal and social security conservative. and so i believe all of our candidates are. it's a very personal decision. >> absolute yes for me. one way or other we would like her to be part of the campaign. republican candidates seeking her endorsement. host: we want to show our viewers a poll done in april by

the university of new hampshire. 2012 hypothetical match-ups. they show former governor mitt romney. -43 percent for president barack obama. 46, 42 with president barack obama out scoring heck abuckabh. back to the phones. carole on ltto carolltton, texas. caller: herman cane. you guys haven't talked toabout him and in term of taxing the rich for the democrats i was going to urge anybody listening to seasoned they're money to the department of easury. they'll take your money and an apply it to the public debt.

there you go. host: matt, talk tos about herman cane? >> he is a dynamic individual and should create excitement at some level. whenever he speaks people are very impressed. he's had a very serious business career. was ceo of godfather's piz and leader of the national restaurants association. he's someone in the conservative community recognized auzion bold leader and dominant individual. he could find success in a place like iowa but he'll need like a slingshot to get to the second or first tear. tier. you need to raise money to be active in states. money raising would be a question for him. host: lot of discussion in the previous weeksnd months regarding the president and his berth certificate and how much

information is released to the public and how much information the public is entitled to know and whether or not he's a le gate mate united states citizen. he talked about this at last night's white house correspondence dinner. let's look at what he said and then we'll get response from our two panelists. >> as some of you heard. the state of hawaii released my official, long form, birth certificate. hopefully, this puts all doubt to rest. but just int case there are an lingering questions, tonight, i'm prepared to go a step further. tonight, for the first time, i'm

releasing my official rt bibirt video. now - i warn you - no one has seen this footage in 50 years. not even me but let's take a look. ♪ [applause]

oh, well. back to square one. i want to make clear to the f news table, that was a joke. that was not my real birth video. that was a children's cartoon. they have the original long form version. host: mike. democratic strategist. obviouslying on theue obviously, how far duh! that go to put this to rest as far as president is concerned. >> this is great todayer for comedians but the serioushing is, honestly, if every

republican is not willing to sit up and say this is not legitimate topic it's shameless. you should not be considered serious unless your saying this is not to be discussed it's absurd. host: he knows that the president is american citizen. romney. what about the other two front runner west talked about earlier and how much of a discussion topic do you think this will be as republicans move forward towards 2012. >> i agree with mike. this is a side sh. it's a joke. if you look at it with any seriousness and honesty you know the psident was born in the united states. i think what trump has done has been tremendously damaging to the brand of the republican party and r view of the independence. i agree with you. if you're serious candidate you need to say with absolute no question that you believe he is a u.s. citizen and is the right full president of the united

states. wrote an article three days ago explaining how i think it's very damage together the party. not just with independents but any minute we're spending about this we're not talking about jobs and spending and the economy. so, i do think the issue will reseed a bit. i don't under why the president waited essentially three years to release this. there's no doubt that trump has reached the mainstream media with his celebrity status. but any ways i am just praying that we're noting that we had to get to serious issues. host: tim from texas you're on the "washington journal". caller: good morning. two quick questions. do you believe, now this is for both of your guests there that any of the potential republican candidates will embrace the paul

ryan plan that the dismantling of medicare and taxes for the rich. what does the embce of donald trump, largely on the birth issue and then secondly on the issue of calling for the president's grades and he said, many occasions that the president i guess didn't deserve to get in harvard and did not get good grades despite all the evidence to the contrary. i wonder if the media has taken an i guess - i soft - had not interviewed m vigorously about his assertions that he sent people to hawaii knowing. when did he send them and where's he getting the evidence that the president didn't get the grades? ho: tim. matt address the first half. i'd rather spend time. talking about serious proposal

and less about something that blow hard donald trump says. the budget. the path of prosperity is a serious proposal. you've not seen them propose a serious proposal. second cut at the budget proposal for president barack obama is lower spending over 12 years the ryan plan does six or seven over the first 10-years. you know, i think we have to be specific with our language. first of all medicare is not a voucher but a support payment. there's a distinction. reality here is as currently as it stands. medicare will not exist as it does unless we do something. the choices are not between what we have today and what the big bad republicans are proposing but between the program that will bankrupt our country that will have to change or can we act now in a smart way without

impacting people5.2people afr-re not trying to displan disma man care. the average person puts $150,000 into that program in their lifetime and take out $hoo thousand in their own lifetime. that not a sustainable path. host: gregory on the washington urin journal. caller: republican individuals responsible for the mortgages given to people and the banks

that failed when you look at the ed rodg heads of. when you look at enron situation. they were republicans. and now, all of the off-shore loopholes and lack of the legal consequences. if ceo's and the moneys that they are being paid. the housing bubble and the fact that their busted and the major players and people responsible were republicans.

essentially in front of congress saying that they were telling their clients the opposite of how they were behaving themselves. so if the republican plan, if the republican plan to overturn wall street reform, to let the banks be essentially unregulated and go after kind of a predatory practice towards homeownership and lending as part of their plan, i think that will be part of the campaign. i think that piece is important. the other piece going back to the ryan budget, i actually believe this is a critical topic of discussion because i think there is a clear choice in how we deal with deficit reduction. and there are real dollar figures associated with some of the democratic proposals. the democrats want end to the subsidies to the oil companies. that's $40 billion. that's a real amount republicans don't want to do it. they won't even allow a vote on it. that's a clear difference. the democrats want to get rid of the bush tax cuts for those

earning above $250,000. we're talking about real choices. the republican choice is in fact to take medicare, turn it into a system where people are given a dollar figure and told to go deal with the insurance companies and it's not going to be enough money and it's not going toe reduce health care costs. corp 2010] host: our next call comes from chlotte, north carolina. caller: is there any chance the governor will run for president? guest: i think the question is one of denomination. in terms of running, he has been forthright sayg he doesn't believe he's gite -- quite yet

prepared to run for president. it is nice to see someone say that. think if barack obama had been honest he would have admitted he was not either prepared to be president. we were talking about outsiders with business leadership, et cetera, and not career politicians, with one of the callers earlier. people are interested in harg the truth, even if it is unpleasant. a number of our states are facing serious budget deficits. governor chris christy has led the way. the governor has shown a lot of bold leadership in nw jersey. do i think he could within -- win a primary? yes, i do. i think it would take a draft movement because he's been specific about not wanting to run for president in this cycle. it remains to be seen. host: any chance that a

democratic is going to challenge the president for 2012? est: it seems highly unlikely. there are no signs of it yet. there is no clamoring among the democratic -- among democrats right now. there are lower lel support for a primary against obama than there was against clinton at this time in his re-election cycle. so i think not. as you mentioned, by the way, to the earlier point, you mentioned preparedness to be president, i don't think so, unless birthright is preparedness for president, if you want to talk about george w. bush. >> i think gas prices are $3.0. it is going to go well above $4 this summer. democrats proposing to end subsidies to the good -- big oil

companies is an entirely liberal proposal of the past. we need to increase our domestic oil production. if you increase taxes, the more you tax something, the less of it you get. increasing taxes will include less production which leads to more foreign imports. you talk about off-shore oil companies in the gulf. increasing taxes is not going to increase production. it willot help anyone pay a lower price at the pump. >> miami, florida, carl on the line for democrats. you are on "washington journal." go ahead. caller: good morning. thanks to c-span. michael and matt, let's get

real. the fact is, let's go back to the goldwater and bring it up to date to the present republican party. do youhink with the devastations of all of these -- the tornados and various devastations in this country and how it affects the economy and then to see how it was presented to the republican party, and then age-wise, you take the stats, you say, ok, you guys from the rockfeller goldwater era, 50 years old up to the present, 70 years old, how are you going to convince you are a strategist? how are you going to convince them to g with negativity

because i think the young people in the republican party see the time of day and republican party staffers. is it going to be the press, you need the press to assist you in what we call prop gantt gandia, because it is a done deal that -- sold, done deal that obama is going to win. quite naturally you have the support. you have to go to your republicanarty and present games to the public. host: carl, we will leave it there. matt? guest: what can you say to that? i don't know where to begin. he did say president obama would win re-election. i don't know anyone believes it is a certainty that he will win re-election. as i said, i believe there are four numbers that will be absolutely indicative of what his potential successors would

be. and you would agree with me on these. right track, wrong track, approval number, the average price of a gallon of gas. the numbers -- and the national employment rate. so those numbers will tell us a lot. you will have a vibrant republican primary that will last quite a while, i think, that will go well beyond the early states. while it will start in the summer, it will start to set after labor day as it normally does. >> in our "news makers" proam we have the republican party in new hampshire and iowa talking about what's going to be happening in their states coming up in the days and weeks ahead, and also on iowa and new hampshire's attempt to maintain their first in the nation caucus and this includes other states that want to move their

primaries and caucusses earlier in the year as well. we will get response. how soon could it be? could we see an iowa walkous -- caucus sooner? >> we don't want to be wrapping christmas gifts and taking knocks at the door. 2/3 of the r.n. clmplet and i really do hold chairman prebus at his word that is working with those states and that they understand the consequences. as of father of three young kids, i'm constantly reminding them there are consequences to your actions and if florida doesn't get in line, that's

something we need to continue to remind them as well. >> new hampshire, florida, south carolina? >> it matters in the presidential candidates who have been thinking about where they are strong and where their path is to the nomination. i would agree with chairman strong from iowa, t the matter is not up for debate. trying to get a bigger piece of the action. thosfour states will be the first four states. our states will decide whether they are strong. host: does it tter to the democrats? do you read anything into this little in-fighting that's happening? guest: it actually matters a whole lot. those states are different in the way they look.

you go 10 or 12 rounds in the primary, people get to know each other and sit through the caucusses, they have to be willing to sit there for hours and hours. it is a state based on organizing. new hampshire is a very independent-minded state where not unaffiliated members can vote on either side. sometimes you get the idea that new hampshire voters can say, it is your choice here. in south carolina, on the democratic side, youave a high african-american population there, so you have a completely different electorate on the republican side. the order in which these states play matter a lot in terms of who is likely to win those early victories, which are not always determanitve but matter a lot. host: a reminder to our viers and listeners that you can see the entire interview for "newsmakers" following this program on c-span at 10:00 a.m. and also at 6:00 p.m.

caller, you are on the line. caller: quite frankly, i am one of those people that believes we desperately need a third party. i don't believe that either one is representing the solid middle class. engineers like myself, countants, small business owners. to the democrats i say, acknowledge the failures of the stimulus package. i wrote senators,ongressmen, the white house. you want to spend $78 -- $787 billion, build infrastructure. i heard on this program a democratic senator, congresswoman, saying every billion dollars is 33,000 jobs. if you do the math, that would have been 21 million jobs we would have created.

instead all we got was aid to cities and towns which has pushed off the problem that we're having locally for a couple years. guest: look we were on a downward trend for economy when president obama first got there. sometimes it can be hard to measure. sometimes it can bhard to measure when you are losing 100,000 jobs a month. it is hard to claim victory on that. the reality is that is around the beginning of the improvement of an economy. >> our last call for our panel comes from lake charles, louisiana. kerry on our line for republicans. caller: i have a qution. everybody has been bashing trump and saying, you know, you think he's a joke. i tell you what, he has some

good ideas. nobody, the republican party nor the democratic pay has talked about china. china is teering -- tearing us up. we lost 13,000 on the oil rigs. we haven't started redrilling that. obama hasn't done anything. he said well, you know, get green. host: matt, mr. trump has been talking a lot about china. guest: that's obviously the emerging bilateral relationship that's going to have the most impact on the future. the chinese economy overtakes the u.s. economy in the world. slam slapping an import on chinese products is a threat. i don't think it is likely to happen. there is no doubt the devaluation of their currency

impacts trade and our economy. i don't think the chinese respond well to threats. certainly not from someone like donald trump. you mention he's filed bankruptcy three times. i suppose in our current economic state facing record-breaking deficits his personal experience with bankruptcy may be useful. apart from that, i don't think donald trump has goo ideas. he's talked about seizing libyan oil. these are not ideas people should take seriously. host: in 2012 will we see a different congress? will it be the congress we saw before? guest: i think republicans are in a good place to benefit from redistricting in terms of the states where there is growth. we haven't seen final maps in the states where there is growth. you can't make a prediction on the house. democrats must win 25 seats. i suspect it would be a five or

10-seat gain. i think it is unlikely they will take the house back in the senate. republicans that have to pick up four seats. because of the math, i think republicans are likely to take the senate. host: michael same question to you. different congress, same congress? guest: on the senate side the map looks better for republicans. democrats want to recruit strong candidates and they have and they he run strong campaigns to hold onto the senate. the house, i think theatural movement would be a slight crease in the house, but i think redistricting mid gates that. many republicans control most of the maps where there are likely to be changes. i think democrats will pick up seats in the house, just looking at current trends, but not as many as you would think were we.

your way. >> susan is chief congressional correspondent for the washington examiner and joins us to talk about congress coming back to washington this week. welcome to the program. >> thank you. welcome to the pro. what is legislation is most immediate on the congressional agenda once they return tomorrow? >> first thing they're going to do right off the bat is name a couple of post office which is what they do on mondays. nothing too heavy. members are getting started again. in tuesday in the house a they'll attack the national healthcare law again. republicans have vowed to repeal the bill and voted for that in the house but the senate was unwilling to take it up. republicans have a new plan to take it part bit by bit and try to repeal those and take the senate to take it up as

amendments here and there and maybe pick it part. tuesday they have two bills. one would defund school-based health centers. big part of the healthcare reform bills and the second is one bill that was sort of stopping the state for the exchange as huge component of the national healthcare law. in order to have affordable healthcare. president obama wants to establish exchanges in the states where people could afford affordable health care could be covered. the money would amount to a gigantic slush fund. they they it would be in effective. they're going to probably pass those two bills on tuesdays. republican led house by a 44 seat majority will easily pass. they'll get right off to a big start trying to again, repeal parts of healthcare law they promised due when campaigning last november. >> what is the thinking mind

breaking these healthcare law up into the smaller element? and trying to pass the repeal in the house that way? do they think it's would be easier to slide by the democrats in the senate and by the president? >> i think no one expected the president to sign on to or sign off on any bill that pulls out any part of the healthcare bill except the one they passed repealing irs reporting requirement. everyone was on board and thought it would be too burden some. that's just about all he would be willing to tweak. that the republicans would think of. i think the democrats and others might want to tweak the law a little bit. they're plan of action is to take it part and refund it. they also voted to repeal the entire bill and of course that's not going anywhere. the idea here is to take smaller elements and repeal those in the

house. vote to repeal those in the house and then in the senate a republican could attach something to a larger pill and maybe some up with enough votes particularly among more modern senates to move it that way and number two it also keeps the issue alive and i think politically that's helpful for republicans who really helps. really helped the last election by opposition by some people to the healthcare law and they kind of want to keep that going and to show voters their base and they're still work together repeal that healthcare law. ho host white house has a dinner tomorrow night. you know who's going and what they'll talk about? guest: all the leaders and the instrumental people in the upcoming debates on what we're going to do about the debt ceiling. that's going to be the real big debate that consumes congress in the next few weeks. we're at 14.3 trillion dollar

limit on the deth ceiling. that expires on may 16th. that's a few weeks from now and if we don't raise that we default on our expenses and that sends the economy into a tailspin. there's a little wiggle room because tim geithner said he can keep things going to july 8th but knowing the way congress functions and how to address, they need a lot more time than that. they've got to beat to work. the president and members of congress are trying to strike a deal early to help keep the economy going and not give the markets or scare the markets into thinking we're getting too close which of course many believe would be catastrophic. host: we'll involve our viewers and listeners in a few seconds regarding congress and it's return this week. i have one more question before going to the phones.

who were the gang of six and what are they trying to accomplish? guest: some are leaders like dick during bin and others are lower on the totem pole and others are people considered super conservative. they're from opposite political spectrums trying to craft away to low tear deficit. we have a lower deficit contributed to a massive debt. they want to reign in spending. the deficit was not able to agree upon some plan to move forward, so they decided to take it to see if they could come up with their own plan and try to usher it through the senate and they're talking about a variety of different things. not come up with a specific plan yet but different ways to control spending. among them entitlement reform

which is a huge issue for everybody politically speaking. ways to reform medicare and social security and ways potentially to - the new but word is a deficit trigger where you have a limit on how high the national deficit could be before triggers potentially tax increase or spending cuts. there's all kinds of things on the table and the gang of six are key players in the solution. host: susan is our guest and we're talking about congress and it's return this week. want to get involved in the conversation. the number for democrats is (202) 737-0002, (202) 737-0001 for democrats or (202) 628-0205. e-mails can be sent. don't bother on twitter because we're having electrical problems

but you can reach us at cspan.org. dorothy our first caller? caller: yes, i was calling because i have a comment and a question. well, my comment first, would be that when obama spent the money he had to spend when we went into the recession that was a must and he did do it for the middle class and said history will report that. but also i would like to know why don't the media ever really put up fact as to who did make budget deficits if they're going to do it against party or add administrations. they should put up that so the american people will actually know who is responsible for these huge deficits we had. and that's my question. host: who do you say is responsible for the huge deficit? caller: well i have to say the republicans.

i know they want to be conservative and that's a good thing and i am sort of conservative too. i like the facts. i really like facts. host: give us the facts? guest: there's a lot of - there's two sides. democrats like to point out the deficit and deth were enormous and he inherited a really difficult situation. republicans knowledge thing where is tough. the republican line is that president obama has not improved the situation and in their view has made it worse in part by spending a lot of money. the two sides at opposite opinion on this and one of the thing this point out the republicans that contributed to our deficit is the stimulus plan that the viewers are talking about. where democrats believe it helps to save and create jobs. republicans feel it didn't accomplish that at all. again the two sides completely

disagree on that as well. host: this is from frank who writes on gallop.com talking about a pole they put out last week. americans wasteful spending, the large majority of americans say spending too much money on unneeded federal programs is to blame while 22 say the deficit is a consequence not raising enough in taxes to pay for needed programs. the question they post. which do you think is more to blame for the federal budget deficit. wasteful spending too much money or not enough taxes. nationally. 73 percent said spending too much on programs. 22% said not raising taxes enough. and then there's sharp division as among republicans polled by the u.s.a today gallop presented in usa today gallop. republicans.

91% said spending too much on programs while not raising enough money in taxes only 7 percent on the other side. democrats 56 said spending too much money on programs and 38 percent not raising enough money in taxes. cedar town georgia on the line for democrats. erik you're on the washing to be journal. caller: yes. address this to the guest. the democrats that the program put in helped unemployment checks. these programs with the assistance. medicare. republicans, democrats get it. social security. that's not one program which republicans have put in to help the majority of the people. and also, could you explain what is - if the government taking our taxpayers money that the small people have paid in and

they're actually given our money to these large corporations, these subsidies of millionaires and billion theirs. explain a subsidy. guest: very good question. something we'll a lot about this week. subsidies oil companies is going to be a big topic in congress. president obama addressed it in his weekly saturday a dress to the nation. talked about ended oil subsidies and that would be - what it does is cuts taxes for or it excuses taxes for some of the big oil companies and saves them about 4 billion a year and that's a lot of money. president obama is talking about ending that. right now in the senate, the senate majority leader harry reid is talking about getting a bill on the floor to end those for the big companies and put the money back into the u.s.

treasury. the chairman of the finance committee will be having a hearing on that and again, i think we'll see a bill soon. the timing might be good for legislation like that because gasoline prices are so high. the momentum might be there. the country is getting exas sper rating wondering why we're giving tax breaks to the big companies. host: bill on the line from jackson, mississippi. caller: thank you. i don't want to be disrespectful to the journalist there today but somebody needs to speak up and start telling the truth about what's going on and it seems we cannot depend on journalists to do that anymore. they tend to come on and they will tell the truth about the democrats but then they'll tell us what the republicans say in response instead of the fact of it. host: there's one fact about that you're not - you say you're

not hearing. caller: the democrats built up a huge surplus and then president bush and the republicans came in and squandered all of it giving most of it to the rich and wealthy and spending it on wars an not putting wars on the budget and then when president obama came in, he was saddled with an economy that was damaged severely and almost in a depression and he had to spend load office money just to keep us from going into idea precious. when journalists come on they try to play, this side said this and the other side said that and that's one of the most uninformed countries in the world and it's killing this country. host: we'll leave it there, bill. guest: two apposing sides. one reason why reporters try to point out both sides is their

divided too. we have a pretty divided electorate right now and some of that is evidence by the elections we've had. these swing elections and i think it's resulted in a really divided congress and it's just stemming from a country that's philosophically divide. do we spend more or stop spending? that's what we're really at a critical point where congress is being forced to decide how - listening to voters and watching the pole numbers. what do we do? are we to cut spending? people think spending is a little high and that did happen some of it under the obama administration. it's true in some ways everyone is talking about the democrats and spending and not really focusing on the massive amount of spending during the bush

years. host: can you recollect on our line for republicans. caller: i want to thank c-span for your fantastic service to the united states and the rest of the world. my question is - regarding the debt ceiling, what is your take on the mcclintock alternative to raising the ceiling on the debt? thanks care. host: susan? guest: there's a bunch of alternatives to raising the debt ceiling. whole bunch of possibilities. one that is gaining momentum right now amonged republicans any way is to do it in little increments. you might remember last month when congress was trying to deal with the fiscal spending bill. they couldn't come to agreement. didn't want to shut the government down so they would fund it for a few weeks to keep it going and a long the way republicans felt they were able

to win some of the big cut this wanted spending. the big thing for republicans is trying to do the same thing with the debt ceiling. every couple of months raise it and try to achieve some of the cuts and things they want. people think that might lead to real instability and shake the financial markets if we don't settle on one large increase. geithner is talking about a 2 trillion dollar increase in the ceiling they would need to keep the government going for a while. i think that right now. with the big negotiation would be is exactly how they're going to agree to raise it. the republicans aren't going to just allow the seal together go up. they're going to try to secure something big in terms of cuts. spending captor new deficit trigger everybody is talking about to guarantee something would happen to reach the limit that would be established by congress. the problem right now is that republicans and democrats don't

agree what that trigger would be. taxes and spending cuts? and republicans don't want to do taxes just spending. host: chart from the u.s. treasury shows the progression of the debt. the limit is in orange and the actual debt is in green. you can also almost see how the limit sort of covers the actual debt up until about 1981. there's space and then it starts to go from a horseson tall progression to almost vertical there about 2009. erie pennsylvania. rick, you're on the "washington journal". caller: good morning. my question is why are both parties so afraid to go after the big budget big. the defense department. we have all the bases in europe and south 'asia. we spend god knows how much

money on these over blown weapon systems we don't need anymore. we live in a world where we still want a rolls royce when the rest of the world is driving a chevy. we need to scale back on a lot of this spending in defense. host: susan. could we expect to see any sort of massive cuts or significant cuts in defense? guest: i think we will in defense. furans. both republicans and democrats are talking about that need the that's pretty new because republicans are always trying to stop defense cuts and now everyone is realizing there's some way to cut money. secretary gates has said we need to cut spending and out lying cuts that can be made. president obama looks like will a point someone to, well, he'll take gates place and reign in

spending for defense. i think we're at this point going to see some reduction in spending. however, there are two wars and the conflict in libya right now so you're probably not going to see really massive cuts. it's just not real listic to see that. i think you will see some. host: leon paneta who you mentioned will replace the current defense secretary, robert gates and general david petraeus the next director of cia. tell us about the musical chairs going on in the national defense and how - will it be contentious getting them confirmed guy senate or is this a done deal? host: military guy in the ai.

signals what direction obama thinks they should be moving in. i don't think it'll be difficult for him to confirm. he's universally liked on capitol hill speaking. paneta i expect will be confirmed. i really want questions about what his plans are. what's he going to do to protect the country as defense secretary? but i have a feeling both of these gentlemen will be confirmed. host: do you think the senators will be looking for in terms of cuts and defense spending, what can be cut but not in my state or district? guest: always big regional thing. everyone wants to protect military spend and keep bases open. that's going to be a huge part. always is. always difference in the democrats and republicans differ

on how the cuts can be carried out. democrats feel it should be a plot more aggressive than republicans. host: next call from long island, new york. james for representatdemocrat l. caller: thanks for taking my call. the inaccuracy of the information by news media. i've been a news junky for years and i believe the news media both print and electronic are controlled by the right wing. without a doubt so therefore they're going to control the message primarily. thank you very much. host: glen on the line for republicans. glen? caller: first, i'd like to address what the caller mentioned about the message. the message that the news media picked up can be anything it

wants to be. the facts are the facts so it doesn't matter what the message is, the facts stay the same. in my opinion and from the facts i've seen. republicans have done a better job with the budget. if the democrats can do a better job i have to ask them the budget we just came out with ch. it'll come out. one of the previous callers. obama has inherited. it. he asked for it. he said and i mean he wanted us to vote for him. the american public to vote for him. he's had a plan to fix the country. he's not really done that said he wanted to bring the troops out from war. they're still there. host: glenda in tennessee.

jones borrow. guest: republicans are taunting the democrats saying when you were in you tear last four years the last two years you didn't have a budget, which is a plan or blueprint for spending the in the following year leading to some of the drama over the government shut down and the 2011 budget they blamed on the democrats for not coming up with the own spending blueprints and republicans have come up with a plan. it's a really legitimate plan on details how to cut more than 4 trillion in spending over the next decade. it's somewhat controversial. because it addressed medicare for the first time and that's a tough issue for some people. raising the eligibility age gradually to have to be 69 to get the benefits and probably in theest makes of some people perhaps reduce the benefits for some people depending what your income level is.

so it's pretty controversial but the republicans have dove into this debate now on medicare and got the ball rolling on it and the democrats say, well they say were falling short on that. host: r regarding the budget. stephen dennis wrote senator majority leader mcdonnell said won't vote along side a vote on the house budget written by paul lion. the remember tu can i republican announcement comes a day after harry reid announced plans to vote on the budget written by budget committee chair ryan for the expressed purpose of killing it. explain how this is going to happen? guest: now you got to think about it politically. we know that it's really unlikely that either plan will pass the senate. senate right now has a slight

democratic majority. few seats ahead. you need 60 votes to pass things in the senate. unusual. not a simple majority. it's tough to get things passed. the ryan budget is republican budget. there won't be enough despite moderate democrats. and republicans feel that this will put them on the spot politically because some of the members will have to vote whether they support cuts to medicare or the raising of the eligibility raise that's a tough thing for some people. why pick up a bill that's not going to pass. why put up that painful political exercise. on the other side the obama budget will also not come up with enough votes because there's just, there again aren't the 60 votes to pass it. the senate does this. they'll take up both side-by-side for two different plans on a certain piece of legislation and neither will go through and what it does is lets the senators know where things

are and add them to move forward with the real negotiations. the 2011 budget. they voted on a few and they got down to the real work of negotiating a compromise. host: representative ryan this week with a quote in this blog here. how do you feel being made the boogey man on the budget business and he said i don't think about it. i sleep well at night. we know we're going to have an economic collapse on the path we're on and so to me, it's con or unconsable as an elected represent of the people to know that's coming and not to try. the sounds like representative ryan has dug in and this is his line in the sand and challenging people to cross it. guest: really is.

the republican line is we have to do something now. the program we have in place for medicare and all the entitlements is not sustainable in decades from now. there isn't going to be at that point then you're going to have to see cuts and they're not going to be well planned out. they might be drastic and difficult for people to take. less reform, let's reform the system now. democrats i've heard obama say the republican plan is so drastic and so discouraging it just makes it look like country is falling apart, so basically the republicans are taking a viewpoint that the country is falling apart finishly where as the democrats say let's fix things more scalpel verses a hatchet. host: tulsa oklahoma.

independents line. caller: good morning. one - two things. one is that if we really want to cut the budget let's start with the defense for this reason. we're still in germany almost 60 years after the end of the second war. we have 50,000 military personnel in germany. we have 30,000 in south korea. 35 thousand in japan. we have bases in england, france, germany, spain, italy. portugal. who are we afraid of that we need that many base? host: susan? guest: think we'll see defense cuts and eventually a less of a big footprint overtime i'm sure. at this point with things going on in libya and i think the instability in north korea, it's unlikely you'll see a big reduction right now. if

anything i think some people think that things becoming more unstable in our presence is really needed. there's a real divide on that and there's currently a lot of people that think defense spending is out of and. talk about the cost of some of these - some of the equipment, airplanes and the ships and things that cost millions and billions of dollars and why are we still spending money. some of it's duplicative and some of it is wasteful. one area that's there's a lot of agreement is there's wasteful spending and thing that can be done away with it. i think you're going to see an attempt to do that over the years. host: there's always going to be regional issues with cutting defense spending. with regard to closing some of the bases overseas. do the senators an congressman hear from represents of various countries saying we rather you didn't close this in our country

or we'd like to see you guys leave tomorrow? guest: depends. certain parts of country i think there's a desire for americans to leave. okinawa. the american presence was controversial there. problems there for the military. but for the most part they're considered a welcomed presence because they provide a, you know l layer of protection in an unstable area. caller: yes. i'd like to ask whether or not the 333 million that is spent per day in between iraq and afghan st afghanstan, i voted for our president because we were going to pull out and not send more

troops in. guest: we're leaving afghanistan slowly. it's gradual but i think there will always be. i think the original plan was not to have zero presence there but light presence there eventually. of course we're not there yet, but president obama process is underway now where we're going to have fewer people in afghanistan. i don't think there was a plan to take everybody out at once. host: brenda, republican line? caller: good morning. i want you to please tell the ones that call in about the surplus back with bill clinton. it was a republican congress that saved us that money. that gave us that surplus. but it was also 9/11 came right after that surplus. get your facts straight. whenever you say anything. we do better when we have a

republican congress with a democrat president. host: brenda in georgia. next up. rita on the line for independents. caller: good morning. host: good morning. go ahead. caller: i wanted to agree with some of the people talking about the a cuts as far as military bases information remember lands. however. i'm an independent. i do not belong to a political party. i do follow politics but i wondered why the push was back for the healthcare or they had to pass it immediately. nobody read the bill and if we had deficit then, why were we making new programs without money to pay for the things we already have? i understand people need healthcare.

i think perhaps we could have tried for those that didn't have anything made some kind of program for them and then maybe you know, do it incrementally to everyone to be covered eventually. host: susan? guest: democrats passed a healthcare law almost solely without any help. they did it for two reasons. for a lot of reasons but two main reasons was that, there is a crisis in the country where there's so many millions of people with no access to medicare and they're raising the cost for everybody because they can't get primary care and don't have insurance. the second reason they felt the current system is unsustainable contributing to the deficit. if they came up with a big plan for everybody. and scrutiny of cost they would

help bring down the co cost overtime. and in fact they said their program will cut billions of dollars for from the deficit overtime for. the democrats they felt it was a win/win. get healthcare for everybody and find a way to reduce the deficit. host: in the "washington post" this morning. talks of the twisters in alabama and throughout the south and in alabama town. federal aid and after thought. storm damage still sinking the. what if anything can congress do. will they be able to do when they come back to help alleviate some of the suffering there? guest: depends what the cost are. years ago when hurricane katrina struck and became a present right off the bat that was going to be massively expensive. congress to actually pass the

supplemental spending bill that included money to pay for stuff in gulf coast and louisiana. this is a huge, huge disaster that it's possible that that may happen. it just depends if they feel they can handle it with the money they have. if they don't they'll come to congress and say we need more money and that will be inner serted in another spending bill more separately if it's turns out that much. congress at any time can pass a supplemental spending bill if they have to. host: do you think it's going to be harder to get a supplemental for tornadoes damage? ge guest sure. it would open up the door to putting in other thing this want passed and fighting over how much money needs on spent. any time there's a spending bill

on the floor it's full of controversy. host: talking about this with susan. chief congressional correspondent are the washington exam per. ohio is next for the democrat line. go ahead. caller: my comment is about helping to save social security. and i believe that the cap on social security should be eliminated. i mean it's right now at about $160 thousand. so most americans pay social security on everything they earn but the athletes and ceos and everybody else that makes more than $160 thousand don't have to pay social security on the money they make above that. host: nolan we'll leave it there. guest: they're talking about that. social security has not been

addressed by republicans or democrats in budgets. it's a real tough political issue especially with elections happening every two years. nobody wants to te touch that. the payroll issue though how much people are paying into the social security system is i think one area you think you might find change and i think they may at least propose raising that limit. that could be an area of agreement in terms of trying to bring more money in the system. host: jessica brady said democrats step up attacks over gas prices. tell us about that fight? guest: it's always back during the bush years democrats like to blame the high oil prices on the affiliation between bush and oil companies. bush being from texas and some of the oil company executives are always the viewpoints of

them that republicans and oil companies are, you know, really in agreement on a lot of things where democrats want to take away the oil subsidies the oil companies and their never much in agreement. democrats want to move toward more less dependency on fossil fuels where republicans want to do more to boost domestic oil production. opposite ends here in terms of energy policy. you see this week republicans, got a couple of bills on the floor late in the week to try to boost offshore lease privates and drilling in the gulf. president obama put a moratorium after the bp oil spill. the republicans want to reverse that and get things going and speed up the leasing process to boost oil production where democrats want to move away fossil fuel and get to different types of energy and that's where the two sides are on it. this week, you'll see some

movement on the oil subsidies with democrats trying to say are you going to back these tax subsidies while people are paying more than $4.00 at the pump. they're going to put republicans on the spot. host: last call from indiana. ellen, republican line? caller: yes. fact. on subsidies it's not the big oil companies. they were put in to help the small companies to start the drilling and find the oil. what it comes to reagan, the reason he spent so much money is he was increasing the military to stop communism and if you want to deal with healthcare go to health science institute of baltimore they have all the answers. ho host su host: susan? guest: interesting week this

week. you'll see oil production and domestic oil production increases and moving their agenda along but i also think you'll see them dig into what they'll do two debt limit which is the really kind of importance agenda item that's going too ominate con talks about the 2012 g.o.p. presidential field. after that, joseph boardman, president of amtrak, on the future of funding ridership and potential growth. and later, "the new york times" on the 2008 financial crisis. and the prosecution process for high profile participants. that's live at 7:00 a.m. eastern here on c-span. >> now available, c-span's

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