host as paul said, he keeps all of the cuts that are under the affordable health care plan, it goes to a premium support plan in 10 years for people 55 and under. the president goes the feeling was, -- the president cozy feeling was, he cut $300 million of additional spending is out of medicare and medicaid and he says, i'll have my enforcement. it will be this independent hemant advisory board that is a group of experts that will make recommendations as to how to bring down the cost of health care. this the congress can't accept or not accepted in a straight up and down vote.

>> said she cannot come up to something, the recommendation goes there. if you do not, healthcare can pursue it. >> we cannot even wrap our arms around it. it is on automatic pilot. he cannot put any there that it did anything there that put congress. it never got done. they are pretty tough. these things never happened. now you have another thing that should never be mentioned. they have money coming into campaigns. it will be hanging on.

it to be anonymous. >> the corporation is the same as a citizen of the first amendment. there is a way to do something about health care. you reduce money to the providers. you been to influence pateints. yp. you make patients pay more. you get medicaid to is keep working over this. there you go. that is the start.

>> i would add that the current system does not make any sense. we spend twice as much as any develop country on a per-capita basis. we have to get all these people in the keene.

they get it to the emergency room. it is 5 for 10 times the amount of the office. do you know who pays for it? you do. you pay higher premiums on their own policies. i would like to see everyone had a medical home and access to primary care physician. we have to have more primary care physicians. we have to make sure that everybody has some skin in the teens. i would say on insurance -- we have to say of the drug

companies will have to make a sacrifice. they will have to allow medicare to compete with the drug company. this means your just pain in extra amount. you have to make greater use of generic drugs. you have to have malpractice reform. the doctors now longer practice defensive medicine. we have to do something about this in their peer -- about

this. >> someone said any time you go to the doctor it is like slapping $5 on the table. this disappeared quickly. that would be evil. that is less than a pack of cigarettes. everybody would have it. there is no when the third-party payers are paying. a beautiful woman had a heart attack. she lasted for 10 days. 10 days later, it was 350,000 bucks. add that up. now we appointee take care of pre-existing conditions.

these are reality. >> we are talking about it. >> we have this. we have this on medicaid. my state of north carolina place it. it has to match it. it can make a lot of sense.

>> this is extraordinarily important. it is one of the biggest issues defining this. and what to see if we can take a quick look. >> can we get the slide? >> president obama increases revenues. tax reform bower's rate and increases revenue. you see the plan cuts taxes. it extends all the rapes. president obama says he will raise taxes. house republicans said they will cut taxes which seems to be digging the budget hole deeper before they start to fix it.

like the republicans, it lowers the top rate. the suns to a good to be true. how do you get there? >> forget the bush tax cuts. what we need to do is have the most antiquated ones. it can cross borders with no problem. we simplify the code. we greatly reduce these tax expenditures. it is $1.10 trillion. all of these people are bragging about getting rid of this.

what we do is eliminate those. some percent of it is to reduce the deficit. -- 10% of it is to reduce the deficit. we can also take the corporate rate to 26%. we can put in a territorial plan that are captured overseas. i think that is the kind of plan that surely makes sense. it is lowering rates.

>> i think we were stunned when we found there is one trillion 1 billion bucks. there is no oversight in expenditures. they all have to have a very powerful force in the institution to inject that into the tax code. >> which part of the code would you pick up? quit making promises to cannot

keep. there is over 2% adjusted gross income. you could take the same place to 12% of to $7,000. it has a maximum rate of 28%. it goes to a territorial system. all that costs money. somebody has to pay for it. >> i wish we had more time. there are so many additional questions i would like to ask.

these a great things that you have departed. americans will always do the right thing. after they have exhausted the alternatives. will we get to the right thing? i will be key to the last word. >> it will be balanced and nuance. we feel that we have done a great service and the chief tremendous success. we have penstock everyone in america. -- passed off everyone in america. [applause]

why were interest rates higher. it is because we are in the glue factory. >> i think we will exhaust every alternative. we do it because we have to. if we get our fiscal house in order, it goes to any country on the global. let's do the right thing. as the pressure on their congressmen and senators to put this aside and pulled together into the pulling apart. let's make the difficult choices. thank you very much.

>> next, remarks on the economy by the president of these advances the federal reserve bank. the then president of thomas the troops at fort campbell ky. in a look at the april employment figures. >> this weekend, on the origins of government from early tribal society to the first modern states of china and europe. and the conservative blogger interviewed by armstrong williams. also this weekend, david gold fields on the role of religion heading up to the civil war. yet our skills in your in box.

>> michele is here for understand -- i understand, i hear she was born a cantor. yes, michelle, this is how it starts. >> video of president obama's appearance at the white house correspondents' dinner is now the most watched youtube of video ever. it has also been the most watched the video on youtube the past few days. .com/cspan. >> on wednesday, the federal reserve bank and ceo john williams discussed the future of the u.s. economy. he made these remarks hosted by the group tel polos angeles. this was his first address since

march 1. it is about 50 minutes. >> in fact, one of the challenges coming from northern california and the living in the bay area for many years is that as president of the san francisco bank, includes night of the western states of the united states. we have seven major league baseball teams that i am supposed to represent. one of the growth opportunities for me is the be able to say go dodgers. [laughter] i am working on that. this is my first opportunity to speak about the economy and monetary policies.

communication is a critical part of the job. it is essential that the public understands our actions and strategies. in the press conference last wednesday, it was a major milestone in that respect. one of the things we grapple with has to do with inflation. from americans of all walks of life, and one that paid more than $4 a gallon for gas and of the prices of energy, food, and many other commodities. this is painful to all of us, especially those with lower income and stretched budgets. despite the recent upturn in inflation, i don't think it will remain stubbornly high. this afternoon, i will explain why inflation has risen of late. i will also talk about the

prospects of the economic recovery and i will close with remarks about monetary policy at the unwavering commitment for stability. i should start by saying that this represents my own views and not necessarily those of my federal reserve colleagues. i will start with a status report on the economic recovery. it has been two years since the economy started to grow again. we did not regain all of the ground lost. not by a long shot. despite adding 1.5 million jobs, there are still over 7 million fewer jobs that we had during the downturn. forward progress has been disappointingly slow. it is not too surprising, though, given the type of recession we have been through. there has been quite a bit of research looking at financial crises in the u.s. and other

countries around the globe. it suggests that economic growth following banking is often weak and inconsistent. the estimated the real growth domestic product. there are a few other transitory factors for the first quarter. higher gasoline prices are at the top of the list of factors that are going to drag on the economy and will continue to do so for some time. over the past, the price of gas has gone to buy about 1/3.

there are other purchases. it raises uncertainty, and it makes both consumers and businesses more cautious about spending. indeed, consumer confidence as measured by surveys of households. despite the improvement in the economy. in addition to the high gas prices, the housing markets remain severely depressed. in the large overhang of unsold homes in the shadow inventory or foreclosures offered scant hope for a significant rebound in construction or home prices in the near term. meanwhile, government at all levels is heading back. it is something we know all too well. in addition, the horrific triple disaster was not just a human tragedy, it created bottlenecks in the global supply chains.

these are affecting production in the and that states as well as in japan. the dead wrong, i am confident that our economy has enough forward momentum to overcome these headwinds. we expect growth to rebound in the current quarter. it will continue to build a further strength and the remainder of this year and next year. during the darkest days of the financial crisis, we are now enjoying a virtuous surcoat of improving financial conditions. this leads to more hiring and production. in a still stronger financial conditions. doing the financial crisis back a couple of years ago, when we thought that the vicious circle where the where worsening conditions horse at the the economy back and forth. this positive feedback loop is illustrated by the stock market.

there are about 10% over the past year. there is a greater willingness to take on risk. with the investment portfolio, households are more willing to spend. a critical part of the recovery has been the improving labor market. payrolls grew by about 200,000 jobs a month. a solid pace that should pick a as the year progresses. based on data we got this morning and predictions by many economists, i think it will be similar to that in april. we are at a solid pace of growth. the job gains should not push down the unemployment rate. down to about 8.5% by the end of the year.

still, [unintelligible] to sum things up, despite ups and downs, the economic recovery continues on a moderate pace. growth slowed in the first quarter, but it should pick up with the rest of the year. in terms of hard numbers, expect real gdp to increase this year. this is sufficiently high to help bring the unemployment rate down gradually. it will take a long time before we take ourselves into the people. as the economy is emerging ahead, there are idle services out there. it will likely persist for several years. let me turn to inflation. what is the current inflation situation? what are the underlying forces? what are the prospects in the

medium term? what is the appropriate policy response to federal reserve monetary policy? going to the first question, we see very substantial pickup in prices and industrial commodities. copper prices have risen 26%. crude oil is up 35%. this is cause for serious concern. sharply higher prices are driving up their range of consumer goods and services. it is noticeably higher. we tend to watch the most closely. it is the broadest measure for the u.s. economy. increasing at an annual rate in the first quarter of this year, the longer-term inflation objective or a bit less. the most participants, the

federal open market committee prefers. what is driving inflation so high? especially for food and energy, it strips of food and energy prices and is only 1.5%. it has averaged 0.9% of the past quarters. they mentioned core inflation and we get criticized. after all, people need to fill their tanks i totally agree. it is the price of the entire consumption basket of goods. that certainly includes food and energy. we find useful to look at various measures of underlying

inflation to help us and disentangle the various elements of the overall picture. over recent decades, that has been helpful in predicting the future of overall inflation. that is one of the reasons we tend to talk about it. why have commodity prices risen so much? commentators have suggested that is contributed by keeping in place excessive -- the policy of a very low interest rates and a sizable securities are fueling speculation in commodities. the lower interest rates, it is unlikely that this affect will be a very small portion of the huge increase. this recently looked at how

commodity prices acted with an ounce the new policy actions to stimulate the economy. we should have seen commodity prices jumped each time they announced monetary stimulus. the researchers found that the prices fell somewhat after the new policy announcements. it was pushed higher by news that the fed was pushing a voluntary stimulus. i don't see any convincing evidence that monetary policy has played a significant role in commodity prices we have seen. it has been able, i am going to say supply and demand. rising commodity prices can be traced to the rapid rebound of the past year-and-a-half. led by robust growth such as china, india.

the deploy a ravenous appetite. i will give you an example. chinese auto makers sold 18 million vehicles. at the same time, as demand is rising, we see supplies of some commodities curtailed by weather or political disruptions. another example is in north africa, the middle east, political turmoil has reduced the supply of oil and likely added a substantial risk premium. what do these fast rising commodity prices mean for inflation this year and beyond? i believe the inflation rate was elevated the first quarter and will reach a peak but a little -- the middle of this year. in other words, i view this as a temporary hold inflation of about 1.5% inflation annually.

there are several reasons thinking that this will be short-lived. commodity prices are not likely to keep increasing at a rapid rate. in recent weeks, prices for a number of commodities including sugar and cotton have fallen sharply. in addition, crude oil indicates that these prices will keep rising at double-digit rates going forward. in the numerous supply disruptions have pushed up the prices of foodstuffs. they are not likely to be repeated. even if commodity prices remain elevated, they won't keep pushing inflation up. the second reason for believing inflation will peak in the higher commodity prices generally represent [unintelligible] corn and sugar make up only a

fraction of. the manufacturing, distributing, and selling the breakfast cereal, the center for entertainment, it is paying for air time for tony the tiger. large increases in commodity prices typically translates to relatively small percentage increases. the high commodity in put shares, the service is more the exception that the rule. the stability of lager of inflation and -- longer-run inflation half shows that consumers expect moderately high inflation over the next year. they will see gasoline prices going up and up, not surprisingly, if you are worried about near-term inflation prospects. when you look at medium-term --

ordinary americans concede transitory rise in inflation, and the survey results represent the fact that the -- it remains low for several decades. as long as households, businesses and things remain stable, it is unlikely we will see an inflationary dynamic. the institutional factors that led to a runaway inflationary spiral are largely absent today. four decades ago, many labor contracts provided for automatic moving adjustments. automatic prices fell into higher wages. today, these clauses are a thing of the past. meanwhile, measures up wages and

labor compensation, such as employer costs, have increased only 2% annually. when you factor in productivity gains, a unit labor costs have been close to flat. these wage trends reflect the high levels of unemployment in the town. act as a powerful brake on inflation. for all the reasons i have mentioned, i believe risk of high inflation is low. overall inflation will be 2.2 5% this year. as i noted earlier, inflation should return to its underlying level of one. by to 1.7% next year. . .

and by last year, iflation had fallen to very low levels. that meant we were falling short on both counts of our

dual mandate, on employment and inflation. so we have kept the main interest rate close to 0 to stimulate the policy but the federal funds rate should actually be several percentage points below zero. you can't send it below zero so to provide monetary stimulus wave had to look to other means. since 2008 we've been actively buying instruments with the goal of pushing down longer term interest rates. careful analysis indicates that interest rates on longer term treasury securities are about a half percentage rate lower than they would be without this program.

and loafer interest rates to accept -- to help support the recovery and diminish unemployment. we have said we would leave the fed fund rate very low. underlying inflation is subdued, as we have explained but we do expect the pace of growth to pick un. the nature of monitor -- monetary policy is that a considerable time lag must occur are the we have to make our decisions based on where we think the economy will be many months ahead. for that reason we have been preparing a plan to start removing stimulus when economic conditions warrant. this is our so-called exit strategy. now, i won't go into the technical details and it's incredible the number of memos and decalede -- detailed

analyses we are doing thn -- on this but the basic elements of the exit strategy are draining bank reserves and reduce fering holding of longer term strurments. and the exact timing of the various stages of the plan will be dictated by the recoverive and in particular the paths of unemployment and inflation. and to give the public plenty of advance notice, that important communication i stressed at the beginning of my talk, these steps are likely to be signaled in our regular policy statements. the economy today faces many pitfalls. i don't believe runaway inflation is one of them because fed policy makers like the general public are aware of the cost to society whether prices get out of control. the experience of the 1970's was very traumatic and it's indelibly etched in our minds. during those bad oles days inflation did get out of control and it took a very

harsh and painful recession in the 1980's to recover and everyone has learned these lessons from the 1970's and is absolutely committed to making sure nothing like that happens again -- again. you can rest assured that the federal reserve is committed to low and stable inflation. i view a sustained period of high inflation is unlikely but if we do see signs of high inflation developing we will act promisely and decisively to ensure price stability. so thank you very much. [applause] >> um, of course, dr. williams will be answering questions. but if you will wait till the microphone is brought to you we'd appreciate it. thank you.

>> i heard yesterday that barney frank wants to take the rotational vote away from the regional presidents of the federal reserve based on his reasoning that you are beholden to your businessmen boards that elect you to your office and that they have the most to gain by movement in interest rates. how do you feel about that? >> so i -- i -- i disagree. i think that the federal reserve system, which is a quite complicated system and sometimes a byzantine in structure is actually, it has some great strengths too. so let me explain just a little bit how it actually works in terms of the fomc. 12 presidents of the 12 federal reserve banks. if all the positions were filled there would be seven governors on the board of governors. the presidents of the federal reserve banks are individually chose enchly -- by their

boosheds directors. the federal reserve is actually part of the private sector, not of the go. our board of directors includes members of the banking community and members from other groups representing labor and other parts of u.s. society much the 12 presidents don't all vote at the f.o.m.c. only five vote in any given year, on a rotation, although new york votes every year. san francisco, even though we represent almost a fifth of the economy, only get to vote once every three years. so the last thing i should mention is that the choice of the president by the board of directors of the bank, two important points. one is it has to be approved by the board of governors, and the boards of governors is chosen by the president and confirmed by the senate. the second is that under the dodd-frank act the board of directors who are from the banking industry, who are from banks shall are not allowed to

be part of that selection. so really what we're talking about are business people not in the banking industry. now, why i think it's a great system, obviously i'm biased on this but why i think it's a great system is it does mean that the federal reserve has broad -- a diverse set of backgrounds and views not only inside the beltway in washington but people from different back grounsgrourneds -- backgrounds whether in business or different backgrounds chosen by different groups of people, you bring all of them together and get the diversity of backgrounds and views and get away from perhaps the inside the beltway groupthink that could happen. i think it's kind of a crazy system at some level in how it's complicated, but i think it's a system that actually works wog -- well and speak for

myself and my colleagues all are in there thinking about the national economy, unemployment, inflation, we rm value the feedback we get from our business contacts and advisory groups, the groups we go out and see but we're just dedicated to what we can do the best we can do for the u.s. economy so i think that this is a system that i would keep the same. >> yes. i -- on that subject with the emphasis on real estate which is my focus, obviously we're all, the entire world is waiting for stimulus that will get this housing market back up . when as far as i'm concerned i don't know how many people agree with me on this, one of the obvious changes was increasing the requirements in order to get a loan, making it much more difficult and

eliminating stated income. have you analyzed this and do you have any personal viewpoint about a way that stated income parameters could be vetted -- wedded again within certain [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2010] ? and my thought process on it is with regards to the criminal element of fraud if that were in place and identified and if it were very clear what the consequences of flawed -- fraud on a stated income would be, would you alou it or do you have a thought on that? >> i think that this issue of the housing market and the banking sector and the connections between them and the u.s. economy is one of the dument challenges we face.

so part of our goal on monetary policy is we want to see the economy grow. we want to see people borrowing and lending again, people, we want to see the economy improving. at the same time we have a banking sector that has suffered, you know, severely during the crisis and we want to make sure that we have a sound and safe banking system for the future because without that, you know, obviously our economy isn't going to work. finally we have a third part of this which is the financial stability and the dodd-frank act which are, you know, we need to approach i think the issues of financial institutions, financial stability in -- you know, have we thought or are thinking about that relative to where it was before the crisis? we recognize the crisis revealed a lot of short sps -- shortcomings in our regulatory system. in my view these are just as challenging times.

you want the economy to get going better, you want to make sure the banks are safe and sound for our economy, at the same time we're learning the lessons from the crisis. i don't think there's any easy answers to any of these issues and i don't have a particular view on the stated income kind of issues. i i do think it's a very difficult problem of how to get these right, you know, to both not have too much regulation and too much of the banking system but at the same time making sure that we've learned appropriately the problems that led to the crisis and that are part of that and that we don't go through that again. so hopefully out of this process we'll get to a good place but it's a difficult set of choices and again it's a challenging environment because we're not starting at a good place. our economy is still weak and we have challenges in the banking system. so. >> questions?

>> could you please comment on the health of the economy in the western part of the united states, the area that you cover? >> sure. so again as i mentioned we, the 12th district of the federal reserve covers nine western states including hawaii and alaska and guam and the marianas. we got hit very hard by the recession. the housing bubble and crash obviously was more pronounced in the 12th district or in the western states than in the country as a whole. the tech sector was hit very hard during the recession when after the collapse of lehman brothers and those events we saw a complete contracting of business investment due to everybody basically hunkering down. third, global trade collapsed during the pre -- recession and

that -- now it's coming back pretty well, but that was another, a third hit. so if you look at the western states we got hit harder. unemployment went up more on average than in the country. the difference across the country, california was hit harder, utah was hit less hard. it has still lower unemployment than california. we're kind of like the atlanta fed district which includes florida and atlanta, those areas that got hit hard by these factors. we still have higher unemployment than the rest of the country on average. except for housing, we've seen global trade pickup, especially to emerging market economies. so that's a good thing. high tech is actually the brightest sector in the u.s. economy. high tech investment and spend sg is actually doning with -- very well, has rebounded from the recession and is doing great. theories the positives much the

real problem in our economy is that the housing sector, which is a big part of our economy, was hit really hard and is basically still deeply depressed, as i said. if you asked me a year ago where was housing going to be right now i would have thought it would still be low but starting to see signs of improvement. what's happened instead of that is we've seen house prices continue to decline further than i think we expected. we've also seen just a reluctant -- reluctance and we hear this from people we talk to and in the data, just a reluctance to get back into housing. people buying homes at small levels and very, very little construction going on. that was a big part of the hit we took in arizona and nevada and california. eventually i see the u.s. economy improving, the recovery

gaining momentum and i think california and the western states will share in that but it's really, i think, if you look at one factor that separates different parts of the country it's how big the housing bubble and crash were, how important they were for the different parts and those places like here where the housing crash was, bubble and crash was so big and pronounced, this is why, you know, we're still deep in the hole. >> you indicated that i believe that price stability was part of the mission statement and that secondly you felt that higher commodity prices had been driven by global demand. i believe you also indicated that you knit -- think the u.s. is recovering and will pick up the pace a little bit in the next quarter. does that fundamentally mean that you think global demand from other sectors of the world, maybe the emerging markets and countries, will slow down?

>> so that would depend on the individual country, clearly. china, which has been growing at an incredibly rapid rate, their economy, they are trying to slow, the chinese government and the central bank, are trying to slow that down somewhat. that would be an example of i think a very important country in the rest of the world that is going to be slowing and we'll see some moderation in the demand from that country. i will kind of go back through the history of the last few years of commodity prices a little bit. what we saw in 2007 and 2008 when commodity prices really peaked even as the u.s. economy was going into recession, i think what we saw there was this global demand and supply playing out and pushing commodity prices higher and higher. then we got hit bethe financial crisis and recession, commodity prices plummeted shall since then they've been moving back up and depending on which one

you look at they're not mere -- they're nearly higher or higher than 2008. maybe we're moving back on to that trend. what i don't think you want to do is extrapolate the growth rates we've seen in the last few years to say oh, it's going to grow 10, 20%. i don't think commodities like oil prices are going to come down sharply. not making any predictions but i don't see them based on supply and demand combroge rapidly going forward. i think it's more kind of an adjustment to the huge shocks we saw. the other thing about commodity prices is they are asset prices and people trade on them as such which means that premium blit fact that the global economy has rebounded, things, we got through the crisis. investors are looking forward many years and thinking about what the value of these assets

are, the commodities are so that's why you dent -- tend to see greater volatility than you do in other prices but -- so looking forward i see the u.s. economy and european economies continuing to improve. i don't see the ever merging countries growing as fast as we've seen very recently but also don't expect some big upward or downward shift in commodity prices. >> thank you. a little closer to home, how far behind the nation's recovery will california lag if we don't find a way to cut our tax rate and pull employee pensions under control. >> so as i -- in terms of the -- you know, i answered the issue of i guess the economics in terms of the different sectors of the economy. in terms of the government and the budget problems today in terms of the pension problems i see that, the pension problems obviously as being part of a longer term problem. i think that for california as

many other states and you could seen say the federal government, it would be very helpful and productive if we could deal with our longer term problems and come up with solutions about getting our longer term finances in order. i think that would be very beneficial because there's a lot of uncertainty today about what's going to happen at the national level and also at california's level in terms of what policies are going to be and how we're going to deal with them. in the past i think california has been a very dynamic, innovative part of the u.s. economy. i think whether it's technology, entertainment or many aspects of that. i don't think those fundamentals have changed, but i do think that, you know, having good, solutions for longer-term budget problems is an important part of making sure that california and this region remain competitive and

reduces uncertainty about the future. >> follow-up question? ok. >> all right. yes, just on the subject of commercial real estate stimulus , i've seen very, very little action. do you have any thoughts op -- on what could really stimulate lenders to open up again and loan on smaller residential or commercial investment property loans? >> you know, what i -- when i look at or listen to issues about why aren't people borrowing or lending, you see in the small business world that a lot of businesses don't have collateral. the economy is still weak. their conditions aren't as good. the one positive i do hear in parts of the district is that in the commercial real estate,

in apartments and rentals, there are some signs in some areas where demand for housing, multi-family housing, has increased. one of the hard things in this environment is there's so much uncertainty. the economy is so weak, unemployment is so high that i think it's hard for people to read through kind of what's the trajectory we're on. this is one area i have heard some positives that the multi-family real estate area is, you know, apartment buildings and things like that were seeing some improvements. the real problem is i think everyone got burned on housing and commercial real estate and there's an aspect of how do you get confidence back? how do you get people back to feeling comfortable with, you know, the projections they have and economic conditions? i don't know if there's policies that can improve that. think -- i think it's part of

the healing process and part of it is psychological, business people to investors to get back to feeling comfortable, taking good greater risks and investing in longer-term investments. i mean one of the thing we view as a fundamental driver of this recovery is what we just call a healing process. during the financial crisis there was a panic, there was fear in everybody, whether it's a family or businesses or investors, were so afraid to take any risk or take any kind of commitment, longer-term commitment in terms of economic investment or something, that everyone just pulled back at once and that's been improving. the willingness of banks to lend, the willingness of businesses to borrow has been improving but it's just a very gradual process. going back to the experience that the economies have written

about going back hundreds of years and looking at many countries, it's a common theme. it's very hard to get people to put the past behind them and get back to feeling comfortable and willing to take on risk and get back to business and i think we're seeing that go on. all of owe macroeconomic models tell us that the economy should be growing much faster than it is and i think that's a big part of the story. >> great to hear your confidence in what's happening here in the united states both in terms of broth picking up and also price stability. there's been a fair amount written recently about concern with the value of the dollar dizz -- vis-a-vis some of our international competitors where they may have a healthier fiscal situation, much higher groth rates, and i'm curious what you think the fed's role should be should the dollar come under significant attack due significant concerns about

our fiscal woes? >> so this is the easiest question i'm going to get because i'm given very clear instructions never to speak about the delarments [laughter] >> the dollar is the purview of the u.s. treasury department and given that this is the first public speech i've given since i became president i'm glad you asked and i can call it a win. so thank you. i hope that didn't end the other questions. >> last week former chairman greenspan commented that he thought it was important that we roll back the bush tax cuts. do you agree >> so unlike our former chairman who obviously i worked for for many years, you know, i'm not going to comment. i now sound like i'm ducking, but i actually feel like i don't want to comment on what

fiscal policy in particular should be for the u.s. government. i think that one of the things i think the fed has which is really valuable is its independence within the government to make tough monetary policy decisions and, you know, eventually at times unpopular monetary policy decisions in order to achieve our goals. one way may be to keep that independence is for me to stay out of commenting on what bill they should or shouldn't pass or what should be done about tax cuts. but as an economist i will say the general principle that we have an unsustainable fiscal situation at the federal level is a huge problem and we need it one way or another and that's up to, you know, the elected officials. find a way to solve this unsustainable long-term fiscal situation and we need to remove that uncertainty. it's obviously something people

have been worried about and we've known about for a long time. there are tough decisions out there but at the same time it's important that we have a long-term plan and clarify that so that people understand that. when i was at the council of economy survivors in 1999 and 2000 it was something we worked on the most. back then we had the lock boxes and stuff we talked about but the principle we walked -- talked about was we need to make sure there are long-term budgets and government's situation is sustainable and that we have the right policies for the long term and i thought we had made a lot of progress. a lot of, you know, different views on how to do this but i think that's an important goal and i would like to see that happen. but i'm not going to state about how it should happen. i just think it would be very important that we confront these long-term problems and sooner rather than later.

>> given that small business still has limited access to capital but historically about half of the jobs have come from small business, how do you see employment increasing in california specifically. will it be able for it to come from small business? and if so how might that look? >> so this distinction between the financial conditions of small business and larger corporations is really striking. u.s. corporate sectors, corporations in the u.s. as a group have access to credit, stock markets doing well, bond markets are doing well, the amount of cash on hand? -- in the u.s. corporate sector is very high. lots of liquidity. so the condition of the corporate sector as a whole is doing well and improving. then if you turn to your question about the small

business owner, well, what was their capital? for many small business owners the capital was thekitti in their homes and the lick quidity was their credit -- liquidity in their credit card and with the decline in house prices you have lost your credit and the ability to fund through difficult times and of course with the very severe economy which has hit small business very hard, the actual getting through day to day has become much more difficult. so turning to your question of how we are going to get out of this period, i think it's going to continue to be very challenging. i think again they don't have the equity -- there is available credit and i think banks have the funds to lend but again you look at businesses who may have been hit very hard, lost money or had difficult times over the last few years, you know, their financial conditions may not

look so good. so i think this is one of the drags on the economy if i could just speak in term of the national outlook, this is one of the important reasons i don't think we're getting the strong recovery that you would have expected. the hope is that when the rest of the economy does grorks that people have more money in their pockets, there are more jobs, like i said we've added 1.5 million jobs so far and we expect that to continue to improve that that will give consumers money to go to businesses, start buying the goods and services and that will be part of that healing and improvement cycle but i completely agree with the premise that we basically have these two parts of our economy. one is actually doing quite well and you hear a lot of the headlines about this whether it's chrysler, ford, or many other companies then you have this other main part of the economy, a major part of job

growth in recoveries and they're still struggling the it's one of the big drags why we're getting 3.25% growth. people often talk about v-shaped recoveries. one like we had in the 1980's, that's 7% growth. that's what a v-shaped growth is. this we're doctor year we're talking about 3.25%. we're maybe optimistically talking about 4% next year but that's, you know, little more than half what we saw in previous recessions. >> last question? >> as an economist are you concerned about the amount of national debt held outside america? >> terms of u.s. debt held by foreign countries? >> exactly. >> i guess i view that as really a conscious decision of other governments that they

want to hold by far the most liquid and safe international asset out there, which is u.s. treasury securities. if you look at -- i'll go back 15 years to the asian crisis of 1997 and 1998 -- one. lessons from many asian countries was that they didn't want to have to go to the i.m.f. if something went bad. so one way to not have to go to the i.m.f. in a crisis is to have lots of u.s. treasuries on your books so you have this buffer. those southeast asian countries accumulated huge dollar assets because they wanted them in case of another crisis. you look at china's policy of basically managing the exchange rate for their own political and economic goals, the chinese government is making these decisions that this is what they want for their economy, a side effect of that is that the exchange rate would be pushed

up and so one way to manage if -- this is for the chinese government to buy quite sizeable amounts of u.s. securities. they choose u.s. government securities, that's their choice along with other securities. so i view the fact that these countries are holding these large amounts of u.s. treasury securities as decisions that they've made based on their own economic political concerns and so to -- two points of that. that serves their kind of goals. i don't think those are going to change that much. chinese goals, chinese policies in any -- my view aren't going to suddenly say oh, we don't want to continue doing what we've been doing. they've been successful, been growing very rapidly over the last decade and i don't see them wanting to change that. so i don't see a big risk. you see the questions sometimes, what happened if tomorrow they wanted to sell a

billion dollars worth of these securities ar a trillion dollars. the problem with is -- that thinking is there is a reason why they've been doing this and those reasons i think will continue. so those things don't bother me that much. i will back up and say we do have an unsustainable situation in terms of the u.s. trade deficit. if you go at it that side, in terms of the huge you deficits, it's a problem for the u.s. economy and something we need to get on a more sustainable path but i view that as different from the fact that foreign governments decide to hold lots of u.s. securities. >> please help me thank john c. williams, federal reserve, san francisco. [applause] >> thank you very much.

clucks this weekend, on c-span 3, university of nevada las vegas professor. an evening of conversation with descendants of those who traveled and worked the underground railroad. and the life story of ronald reagan. and whether it could have happened anywhere else but the golden state. >> now, president obama's visit to fort campbell, ky. he first met privately with the special operations troops involved in the military assault that killed osama bin laden. he spoke with troops who recently returned from a tour in afghanistan.

>> ladies and gentlemen, brigadier-general jeffrey and coal and the vice president of the united states joe biden. [cheers and applause] >> go screaming eagles! [cheers and applause] it is good to be back with you all. i want to thank general cole for accompanying me appear. i get the honor of introducing a general. i was here on january 11.

155 of you got off of that airplane. it is an honored to be back here so soon. i know many of you have just gotten home in the last few weeks. i know from experience that your families want more than anything to spend time with you. every time i show up at a welcome home ceremony, i worry about getting away. i know when my son came home after a year. there were all of these ceremonies. attic of thinking, hell, man, stop it already. i want to see my kid. [applause] you guys have been in a fight from the beginning, the risks you have taken, the incredible sacrifices you have made, the comrades you lost, the losses you personally endured.

it has been in some of the most in hospital terrain in the world. i have been there any number of times. the helicopter go down 800 feet nlm wearing is a mess. and you guys are wearing packs -- and all i am wearing is a vest. and you guys are wearing packs running around. i appreciate all you do. as i said back in february, i also want to thank your families. they make sacrifices as well, those intangible sacrifices, those missed birthdays, those missed graduations, that ms. occasional funeral -- that mr issed vocational funeral.

john milton said that they also serve who stand and wait and the rest of america owes you a debt of gratitude as well. that is for all the families who are listening. [cheers and] + -- [cheers and applause] you are the most cablcapable warriors. i said that without any contradiction. you're the most capable warriors in the history of the world. there has never, never, never, never been a fighting force as capable as you are. it is my honor to talk a little bit about the man that i get to work with every day. he just got to spend time with the a salters -- the assaulters who got bin laden.

[cheers and applause] by the way, i should not say this, but i will tell you anyway. the president will get mad. today was "grandfathers' de." i went by early this morning to my granddaughter's spring play. after it was over, he said -- she said, pop, come back to my classroom. i said, cannot. i am going to fort campbell. we will see the guys out there who got osama bin laden. this is an absolute true story. >> she grabbed a little friend of hers and said, my pop is going to see the whales. [laughter] if they're that good, they have to be big, man. [laughter] i have been around a while. i have seen presidents make some

difficult decisions. they have all had to make difficult decisions. but sitting in every meeting and getting ready for this assault to get bin laden, i saw president where the odds were 50/50 that he would be there. we sat around there and he asked our advice and we gave them our guys and we told them a little of this and that. finally, he looked at all of us and he said, i have faith in these guys. he walked off on his own with nobody giving him any guarantees and he decided. he believed and not only the seals and the police, but all of you. he has absolute faith in all of you. he made that determination. it was amazing to watch. it was because he had the absolute confidence that you were there. he decided that hthe number one

priority was to get osama bin laden. he did not hesitate and nor did you guys. bob gates said something interesting. he said it was one of the gutsiest decisions ever made. this will go down in history what happened. here to introduce your commander in chief is the guy that i am proud to serve what. this is one of the leading warriors himself, fort campbell 101st airborne division air assault commander general henry colt. [cheers and applause] >> thank you.

i can only tell you how proud this division and this local community are. more importantly, you will get to hear from the commander-in- chief how appreciative he is of all of your service and sacrifices. please join me in this great privilege of welcoming the president of the united states barack obama. [cheers and applause] and appla] ♪

>>hello, fort campbell! [cheers and applause] 101st airborne division air assault, hello! general colt, thank you for that great introduction -- it was great because it was brief. [laughter] more importantly, thank you for the extraordinary leadership that you've shown here at one of the largest army bases in america. [cheers and applause] and let me just say, i make a lot of decisions -- one of the earliest and best decisions i made was choosing one of the finest vice presidents in our history -- joe biden, right here. [applause] chaplain miller, thank you for the beautiful invocation. i want to thank general colt for welcoming me here today, along with your great command sergeant major, wayne st. louis.

[cheers and applause] the quartet and 101st division band. all these troopers behind me -- you look great. you noticed they kind of hesitated. we got a lot of folks in the house. we've got military police and medical personnel. we've got the green berets of the 5th special forces group. i think we've got a few air force here. [laughter] well, we thought we did. there they go -- okay. come on. and, of course, the legendary screaming eagles. [cheers and applause] and although they're not in the

audience, i want to acknowledge the 160th special operations aviation regiment -- the night stalkers -- for their extraordinary service. [cheers and applause] now, i've got to say, some of you are starting to look a little familiar -- because last december, when we were at bagram, i was out there to thank you for your service, especially during the holidays. and we had a great rally, a big crowd -- it seemed like everybody was there from the 101st. and since then, i know we've had quite a few homecomings. the rakkasans. destiny. strike. bastogne.

[cheers and applause] and some of the division headquarters -- the gladiators. on behalf of a grateful nation -- welcome home. [cheers and applause] of course, our thoughts and prayers are with general campbell, command sergeant major schroeder, and all of the screaming eagles and troops that are still risking their lives in theater. and i'm so pleased that ann campbell and marla schroeder, and some of the inspiring military spouses are here. where are they at? right over there. [cheers and applause]

we are grateful to you. god bless you. there they are. thank you so much. this happens to be military spouse appreciation day. [cheers and applause] and we honor your service as well. now, i didn't come here to make a really long speech. i know you're hearing that. [laughter] it's like, yeah, it's hot! what i really wanted to do was come down and shake some hands. i came here for a simple reason -- to say thank you on behalf of america. this has been an historic week in the life of our nation. [applause] thanks to the incredible skill and courage of countless individuals -- intelligence, military -- over many years, the terrorist leader who struck our nation on 9/11 will never

threaten america again. [cheers and applause] yesterday, i traveled to new york city, and, along with some of our 9/11 families, laid a wreath at ground zero in memory of their loved ones. i met with the first responders -- the firefighters, the police officers, the port authority officers -- who lost so many of their own when they rushed into those burning towers. i promised that our nation will never forget those we lost that dark september day. and today, here at fort campbell, i had the privilege of meeting the extraordinary special ops folks who honored that promise. it was a chance for me to say -- on behalf of all americans and people around the world -- "job well done."

[cheers and applause] job well done. they're america's "quiet professionals" -- because success demands secrecy. but i will say this -- like all of you, they could have chosen a life of ease, but like you, they volunteered. they chose to serve in a time of war, knowing they could be sent into harm's way. they trained for years. they're battle-hardened. they practiced tirelessly for this mission and when i gave the order, they were ready. now, in recent days, the whole world has learned just how ready they were. these americans deserve credit for one of the greatest

intelligence military operations in our nation's history. but so does every person who wears america's uniform, the finest military the world has ever known and that includes all of you men and women of 101st. [cheers and applause] you have been on the frontlines of this fight for nearly 10 years. you were there in those early days, driving the taliban from power, pushing al qaeda out of its safe havens. over time, as the insurgency grew, you went back for, in some cases, a second time, a third time, a fourth time. when the decision was made to go into iraq, you were there, too, making the longest air assault in history, defeating a vicious insurgency, ultimately

giving iraqis the chance to secure their democracy. and you've been at the forefront of our new strategy in afghanistan. sending you -- more of you -- into harm's way is the toughest decision that i've made as commander-in-chief. i don't make it lightly. every time i visit walter reed, every time i visit bethesda, i'm reminded of the wages of war. but i made that decision because i know that this mission was vital to the security of the nation that we all love. and i know it hasn't been easy for you and it hasn't, certainly, been easy for your families. since 9/11, no base has deployed more often, and few bases have sacrificed more than you. we see it in our heroic wounded warriors, fighting every day to recover, and who deserve the absolute

best care in the world. [cheers and applause] we see it in the mental and emotional toll that's been taken -- in some cases, some good people, good soldiers who've taken their own lives. so we're going to keep saying to anybody who is hurting out there, don't give up. you're not alone. your country needs you. we're here for you to keep you strong. and most of all, we see the price of this war in the 125 soldiers from fort campbell who've made the ultimate sacrifice during this deployment to afghanistan. and every memorial ceremony -- every "eagle remembrance" -- is a solemn reminder of the heavy burdens of war, but also the values of loyalty and duty and

honor that have defined your lives. mustre's what each of you know. because of your service, because of your sacrifices, we're making progress in afghanistan. in some of the toughest parts of the country, general campbell and the 101st are taking insurgents and their leaders off the battlefield and helping afghans reclaim their communities. across afghanistan, we've broken the taliban's momentum. in key regions, we've seized the momentum, pushing them out of their strongholds. we're building the capacity of afghans, partnering with communities and police and security forces, which are growing stronger. and most of all, we're making progress in our major goal, our central goal in pakistan and afghanistan, and that is disrupting and dismantling -- and we are going to ultimately defeat al qaeda.

we have cut off their head and we will ultimately defeat them. [cheers and applause] even before this week's operation, we've put al qaeda's leadership under more pressure than at any time since 9/11, on both sides of the border. so the bottom line is this -- our strategy is working, and there's no greater evidence of that than justice finally being delivered to osama bin laden. [cheers and applause] but i don't want to fool you. this continues to be a very tough fight. you know that. but because of this progress, we're moving into a new phase. in the coming months, we'll start transferring responsibility for security to afghan forces. starting this summer, we'll begin reducing american forces. as we transition, we'll build a

long-term partnership with the afghan people, so that al qaeda can never again threaten america from that country. and, as your commander-in- chief, i'm confident that we're going to succeed in this mission. the reason i'm confident is because in you i see the strength of america's military and because in recent days we've all seen the resilience of the american spirit. now, this week i received a letter from a girl in new jersey named payton wall. she wrote to me on monday after the news that bin laden had been killed, and she explained how she still remembers that september morning almost 10 years ago. she was only 4-years old. her father, glen, was trapped inside the world trade center.

and so, in those final, frantic moments, knowing he might not make it, he called home. and payton remembers watching her mom sobbing as she spoke to her husband and then passed the phone to payton. and in words that were hard to hear but which she's never forgotten, he said to her, "i love you payton, and i will always be watching over you." so yesterday, payton, her mom, and her sister, avery, joined me at ground zero. and now payton is 14. these past 10 years have been tough for her. in her letter, she said, "ever since my father died, i lost a part of me that can never be replaced." and she describes her childhood as a "little girl struggling to shine through all the darkness in her life." but every year, more and more,

payton is shining through. she's playing a lot of sports, including lacrosse and track, just like her dad. she's doing well in school. she's mentoring younger students. she's looking ahead to high school in the fall. and so, yesterday she was with us -- a strong, confident young woman -- honoring her father's memory, even as she set her sights on the future. and for her and for all of us, this week has been a reminder of what we're about as a people. it's easy to forget sometimes, especially in times of hardship, times of uncertainty. we're coming out of the worst recession since the great depression, haven't fully recovered from that. we've made enormous sacrifices in two wars. but the essence of america -- the values that have defined us for more than 200 years -- they

don't just endure -- they are stronger than ever. we're still the america that does the hard things, that does the great things. we're the nation that always dared to dream. we're the nation that's willing to take risks -- revolutionaries breaking free from an empire, pioneers heading west to settle new frontiers, innovators building railways and laying the highways and putting a man on the surface of the moon. we are the nation -- and you're the division -- that parachuted behind enemy lines on d-day, freeing a continent, liberating concentration camps. we're the nation that, all those years ago, sent your division to a high school in arkansas so that nine black students could get an education. that was you. because we believed that all men are created equal -- that everyone deserves a chance to realize their god-given potential. we're the nation that has faced tough times before -- tougher

times than these. but when our union frayed, when the depression came, when our harbor was bombed, when our country was attacked on that september day, when disaster strikes like that tornado that just ripped through this region, we do not falter. we don't turn back. we pick ourselves up and we get on with the hard task of keeping our country strong and safe. see, there's nothing we can't do together, 101st, when we remember who we are, and that is the united states of america. when we remember that, no problem is too hard and no challenge is too great. and that is why i am so confident that, with your brave service, america's greatest days are still to come. [cheers and applause] god bless you. god bless the 101st, and god bless the united states of america. [cheers and applause]

[captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] ♪

>> there is a saying in the military. if them -- amateurs do it over and over until they get it right. professionals do it over and over until they cannot get it wrong. >> he was the platoon leader of seal 1 during vietnam. sunday, he will discuss a life

and training of today's navy seals. you can also download podcast of "q&a." >> next, a look at the april employment figures. after that, the president discusses the national economy in indiana. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] >> tomorrow, atlantic associate editor has the latest on the overall economy and job numbers. a navy seal officer talks about with their lives are like. and high school teachers andrew caneen and daniel larsen take calls tomorrow. live at 7:00 a.m. eastern on c- span.

>> the economic report for april had mixed news. unemployment rose to 9%, up 0.2 percentage points over march. but non-farm payrolls grew higher than expected. it was the third consecutive month of more than 200,000 jobs added. it was the largest hiring spree in five years. now the bureau of labor statistics leader talks about the economic numbers before the joint economic committee on capitol hill. this is just over an hour. [inaudible conversations] >> the committee will come to order. i want to thank everyone for being here, and i have an opening statement i will make him and then returned to our vice chair, congressman brady, and the other members who want to make a statement before

introducing commissioner hall for his statement. we are again please have commissioner hall here come his team here with us today. and we appreciate your service to the country. we have a lot to report on today, but i wanted, before we get into the numbers for this month, i just wanted to add a few words about some of the trends we have been seeing over the last couple of months. by the labor market is still facing significant challenges, we know that unemployment is too high, and over all employment well below the levels prior to the recession. we have seen some real strengthening in the labor markets since the spring of 2010. and more private sector jobs have been created and the unemployment rate has begun to come down, though it kicked up this month and will get that -- to do in a moment. if we look at the last 14

months, we have now recorded over those 14 months private sector job gains, internet time we have added to .1 million private sector jobs. since the beginning of 2000 of the labor market is also shown resilience in the face of rapidly rising oil and gas prices. continued weakness in housing, slowing, export growth in winter blizzards that delayed some investment in hiring. against these challenges the trend has been clear. in eight of the last nine months, the economy has added more than 100,000 private sector jobs during each month. in february, march and now april, we've added more than 200,000 private sector jobs each month. and i think that's a very good seri syed, a very good trend. so we're moving in the right direction. we're benefiting in my judgment

on the actions taken in the last two years of 2009 and 2010 in dealing with this challenge. these actions that we've taken have put us on the path to growth, and i'm pleased to see some signs of that this month as well. today's economic -- today's employment report i should say, provides further evidence that the labor market is getting healthier as the economy continues to improve and the recovery continues. during april, the economy added 268,000 private sector jobs. due to the loss of government jobs overall, the economy added 244,000 jobs in april. one of the charts behind me clearly shows the trend in employment over the past 18 -- i'm sorry, the past 14 months, a

sign that some of the work that we have done in the last 18 months or so has begun to have an impact. one sector that has been showing sustained employment growth is the manufacturing sector, a key source of good paying jobs and central to our nation's long-term competitiveness. in april, this sector added 29,000 jobs, and since the end of 2009, manufacturing has added a quarter of a million jobs. in addition, the professional business sector added 51,000 jobs, its ninth consecutive monthly gain. as we know from the news this morning and we'll hear more about this, obviously in hearing, the unemployment rate has aged up to 9.0, from 8.8 in march, while down from its peak of 10.1% in october of 2009. the unemployment rate remains too high. with 13 points 7 million

americans looking for work, we can't find it. as chairman of this committee, i monitor these unemployment numbers for each demographic group to ensure that its overall employment, the overall employment rate continues to drop. the unemployment rate falls for every group. but enforcement that's not the case that the unemployment rate for this month for workers with a disability just by way of one example, workers with a disability, their unemployment rate was 14.5%, compared to 15.2% a year ago. the high rate of unemployment among people with disabilities underscores the need for legislation that i and others have worked on. i will be created using along with congressman crenshaw of the florida the achieving a better life experience act, the so-called a ble, able actor in the previous congress this legislation had substantial bipartisan support in both

chambers. the a.b.l.e. act will give individual with disabilities and other families access to new highly flexible tax-free savings accounts that could be used to help cover a variety of essential expenses for people with disabilities, including employment training, and educational expenses. in combination with other support, the a.b.l.e. act can help people with disabilities gain new skills and training and strengthen their employment prospects. additionally, when we look at the cato demographic groups, the unemployment rate for veterans was seven points 7%, which is below the overall 9.0 rate. gulf era veterans meaning those who have served in iraq and afghanistan facing unemployment rate of 10.9%. so obviously higher than both the overall federal rate, higher than the overall unemployment

rate. the unemployment rate in the african-american community was 16.1%. well above, above its pre-recession level. that number for african-americans was as low as 7.7% in august of '07. hispanic workers, the unemployment rate was 11.8, which is much higher than it was in 2007. so we've got to examine these numbers as well as the overall rate. so in summary, the unemployment rate shows that we are on the right track. the economy is continuing its recovery. the economy is stronger than a year ago. more people are working. fewer unemployed, but we must do more to continue down the path of this recovery. the first quarter, the first quarter of gdp, the data show the recovery is modest and the recent spike in oil and gas prices continued weakness in the

housing market present real challenges. federal reserve chairman bernanke and others have noted that the weather and other factors contribute to the slow down in the rate of economic growth in the first quarter. while they have said that, it's important that congress tackles issues that will protect american workers and families, now and into the future. i believe we need to stop subsidizing the major oil and gas companies at a time when the price of oil have spiked, and the profits have surged. we have this strange situation where they get our tax money, they are getting record profits, and the gas prices for families go through the roof. i think we must crack down on the unfair trade practices that china engages in on a daily basis, and we need to put our fiscal house in order. cutting spending, reducing waste, fraud, and abuse, and bringing down the deficit and

especially long-term debt. so the job before us is to build upon the progress of today to creating more jobs and bringing the unemployment rate down, but i look forward to working with members of the committee on these and other challenges to support the economic recoveries come and now i'd like to turn to our vice chair, congressman gr greg. >> thank you, chairman. dr. hall, we welcome you and your colleagues again this one. during april, initial unemployment claims surged from 395,000 for the first week, the 474,000 for the last week in april. the last time that initial claims were this i was october of last year. this development is extremely unsettling as we've been expecting continued improvement in the labor market. while the job growth is welcome, today's employment report coming on the heels of these troubling initial claims data is showing some disconcerting sign. 9% unemployment and a rising

number of number of workers who recently lost their jobs are disappointed statistics. we need is still faster private sector job creation, or otherwise millions of u.s. workers will language in unemployment, millions more will remain under employed or live in fear of losing their jobs. the economist recently asked question, what's wrong with america's economy. in answering his question, an economist put it to america's public finance in this labor market. moreover, they say the recent decline in the unemployment rate is misleading because it's a result of surprisingly small growth in the workforce as discouraged workers drop a. the labor force participation rate remained at the lowest level in more than a quarter century. it's frustrating beyond words to see the excruciatingly slow progress in employment growth. especially why president obama

pursues policies that obstruct economic activity and job creation. the energy manufacturing services industry in america is a prime example. under this administration, the energy manufacturing and energy services industry is suffering from the fact of the drilling moratorium on offshore and. threats of actors tax changes that will shift jobs in production overseas. we should be content with pouring over these employment numbers month after month, and bemoaning the slow progress. perhaps we can blame it on the weather or china or on american energy, but we know what is causing this growth problem, so let's fix it. let me sure you again as it did at last month's hearing, the table job performance during and after this recession compared with a during and after the other two major postwar recession. this chart demonstrates how we are underperforming relative to past experience. this is an exceptionally weak

recovery. there is no excuse for the dismal job performance. you cannot expire placing the financial crisis caused severe recessions, but then failed to encourage private sector growth by every means possible. why doesn't the president have an obsession with raising taxes quick wide as he pursues with his green jobs mantra when the 1% of our energy sector for which wind and solar account clearly cannot revive america's job market. americans are demanding real solutions. jdc republicans released one page from the summer and another from the fall last year that warned treating the bp oil spill as an environmental disaster be a mistake about it on the second paper came out in october the price of crude oil hedges risen to $80 per barrel. these papers explain the importance of continued exploration department in the fastest growth areas for oil production in the country to help counteract future oil price

volatility's. in 2010 the united states with the largest source of world supply growth outside opec on the strength of offshore production, but they should the energy information administration expects federal gulf of mexico oil production to fall by 240,000 barrels each and every day. energy consulting firm estimates the drop of 375,000 barrels per day in 2011 or the production because new development wells could not be brought online. if those bills are important, how does that help stabilize oil price? how does that help our economy? how does that help our jobseekers? the price of august '01 hundred dollars per barrel, of average price of gasoline nationwide is just shy of $4 per gallon. the private sector is boosting labor productivity their first quarter productivity was up by 1.6%. however, businesses are also sitting on $2 trillion of cash

that they won't invest because of regulatory uncertainty and fear of higher taxes and inflation. therefore, businesses are not creating new jobs necessary to we employ more people, and increase the nation's output sufficiently to generate enough tax revenue, to support those who are sick, retired or remain unemployed at the annual rate of real gdp growth slowed to 1.8% in the first quarter. president obama's put the federal reserve in a position where he feels compelled to hold the federal funds rate at zero, why hundreds of billions of dollars worth of treasury bonds. the joint economic committee republicans just released a paper on this subject as well titled too loose for too long. the federal reserve is taking great risks with inflation, would not be necessary if the other levels -- levers of the private economy that the government can impact were set to go. dr. hall, i look forward to your testimony.

>> thank you. congressman cummings. >> thank you, mr. chairman. i want to thank you for calling this a today to enable us to examine the current state of the plug-in or nation that i also think a witness, dr. hall, for appearing before us today, and for following up with my office return my question from last month's hearing. we learn from today's report, mr. chairman, in april the private sector added 268,000 jobs resulting in an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 244,000 jobs. these numbers are heartening because they follow 13 consecutive months of positive job creation. in fact, 1.8 million new jobs have been created since februa february 2010. when contrasted to an earlier period, january 2008 through february 2010, a period during which our economy shed

8.8 million jobs come it is clear that we have averted a disaster. nonetheless, other indicators clearly show that we must continue to make job growth our top economic policy priority. we learned yesterday new claims for unemployment unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high of 474,000 applications. there are curly 13.7 million americans who are unemployed. almost a third of these individuals have been unable to find work for more than one year. one out of every 10 americans without a college diploma cannot find work. and one out of every six african-american workers remain unemployed. equally worrisome was the report monday by "the wall street journal" indicating that there are currently 5.5 million

long-term unemployed americans who are no longer receiving any employment benefits. these are our fellow americans, and they are fighting for survival. on april 18 i held my annual job fair, which, in baltimore, which connects employers with job seekers, and thousands of people attended. i saw firsthand the determination and humility of my constituents who are so basic and opportunity to provide for themselves and for their families. they are resilient but they need a chance to succeed. that is why i commend congressman, democratic colleagues, for earlier this week unveiled a continuation of our make it in america agenda. this agenda consists of numerous bills that will support job creation today, and in the future by encouraging investment and innovation, infrastructure and education, right here at home in america.

unfortunately, i fear that my friends across the aisle are sacrificing our future in an effort to pay off debts created by tax breaks in two wars. nobel peace -- nobel prize-winning economist joseph stiglitz wrote in politico last month, and i quote, the ballooning of the deficit is understandably move deficit reduction back to the center of the debate. but the best way to reduce the deficit is to put america back to work, and, of course. yes, instead of making these critical investments, the house majorities budget proposed this last updated programs, headstart and pell grants for college students. this week the house majority voted to pass h.r. 1214, which would repeal the section of the affordable care act and funds for construction and improvement of school-based health centers. funded the construction of the centers not only ensures children access to these vital and cost effective services, it

creates jobs in one of the hardest hit sectors of the economy, construction. the majority proposed cuts with a school-based health centers, or job training programs, are ostensibly defending with the argument that tough times require tough choices and sacrifices. unfortunately, the senseless cuts fail to meaningful reduce the debt and is different hundreds of thousands of jobs and the well being of our fellow americans. this is not the time for symbolism. this is the time for smart choices that will create jobs, and once again, make our nation in the land of opportunity for all americans. i urge the house majority work across the aisle to find solutions that will reduce the deficit, help the middle class and put americans back to work. i thank you for the sharing and i yield back. >> thank you, congressman cummings. dr. burgess? >> thank you, mr. chairman. dr. hall, commissioner hall,

always good to see. always good to start the month off with commissioner hall. i do want to talk about why the u.s. economy is not recovered in some of the steps we can take to bring the economy back. i'd like to should offer as an example the state with mr. brady lives and where i live, texas, as a good example of the direction where we would like should head to the rate in texas is a .1%, certainly below the national average. certainly much higher than we would like you to be in the state of texas, but nevertheless the texas economy has performed better than any other state because of, why? a job from the radar machine, no state income taxes, and the fact that texas is a right to work state. as of march annual job growth in texas was 3.6% compared with u.s. growth job rate of 2%. the dallas offense has unemployment rate in texas would be even lower except for the

fact that texas has had a rabbit population increase in the last 10 years, of which we are all aware. we also accounted for 14% of the united states employment growth over the last year or the agreeable weather in texas, better job conditions are attracting people from all over the country, and people are voting with their feet and moving to the lone star state. over 200,000 jobs were created in the last year. other states could achieve this growth by duplicating texas' job from the environ. in spite of the statistics our economy in texas is not perfect. we are concerned about unemployment rates for our young, people just getting out, beginning their earning years. and put rights for minorities are unacceptably high, and the overall unemployment rate is still as i said over 8% and that is-texas. but the statistics cited earlier in the shade compared to the rest of the country something in

texas is working, and perhaps washington and other states could consider a more job friendly regulatory regime in order to restore those jobs that mr. cummings says we need in order to recover the economy. one sector of the economy which i would like to focus is the housing market, housing prices have continued to drop in demand for homes remains low. the housing market which helps drive our economy is in there that they can create jungle do we need to boost our recovery. i'd like your dr. hall today to discuss the housing market strike on the economy and how that affects our national growth. another a of concern already mentioned by other people is high commodity prices to consumers across the country face higher oil and food prices. if we don't want to economic revival to stall, these prices have to come to. the goodies yesterday is that oil prices tend to come under $100 of their for the first time in a long time. in fact, it was rather a significant draw.

what happened yesterday? oh, the house passed a bill. here we are innocent today and i would just mention to the senate that our bill yesterday to expedite lease sales in the gulf of mexico, those very places that have been delayed or canceled by the administration in the past year, the fact that we're willing to expedite those leases, lease sales had a profound effect on those people who like to speculate and hedge in the oil market. they saw the republican house was serious about addressing the issue of the subplot of our oil produced within our shores. the administration has harmed offshore exploration of the past year. i don't think there's any question about that. we've seen the effect by the price at the pump. what will not create jobs is the debt, and the federal debt at $14.3 trillion, the number has grown so large that most people simply can't comprehend it. they have given up even trying.

canada's debt to put it in perspective is about half a billion dollars, half a trillion dollars. the federal government must find ways to operate like a normal family. we'll hear about cuts that need to be me. one of the first things we probably need to do is cut up the government credit card and stop spending. the talk in washington has been about cutting spending, and there are cuts that need to be made but there are other things we could be doing here in congress to cut down on government expenses which are things like waste, which in turn free up resources for congress to reduce the deficit and help those americans who are out of work. let me just comment briefly and i will submit the rest of my comments for the record, but mr. cummings mentioned h.r. 1214 the past history. this was a bill that would take back $100 billion, i believe erroneously included as a forward appropriation, a blank check, if you will, a blank post dated check that was included in the affordable care act.

affordable care act is riddled with this type of policy where the federal government has written blank checks posted them, put an envelope and all of them are overdrawn the american account. yes, this was about to the small sum of money, $100 million. but here's the do. this money was for the construction of clinics. the money set in stature. the money could not be used to hire a doctor or nurse or anyone else to provide care in that clinic. that's crazy. the american people recognize that's great. even the administration recognize that it was crazy because this is the only one of the so-called cut bills in the affordable care act with the administration has refused to issue a veto threat as a statement of administration policy. even the president was embarrassed by slipping this $100 million into the affordable care act. i assume it was done over here in the senate for some reason as a payoff to someone. i can't identify who or how our

why, but that's the way most of these things were. but it was appropriate to bring this money back. we are not against school-based clinics. we are against the funding of a clinic with no vision for funding for stepping that clinic. the normal federal qualified health centers statute says we will not build a. you build it, we will help you staff it. this legislation to turn things on its head. as appropriate to reverse that course. i thank the chairman for his indulgent and i will yield back the cost of a time and submit the bows of my statement for the record. >> dr. keith hall is the commissioner of labor statistics for the u.s. department of labor, the bls is an independent national statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, disseminates essential statistical data to the american public, the u.s. congress, other federal agencies, state and local governments, business and labor dr. hall as absurd as a chief economist for the white house council of economic advisers for two years under president george w. bush. prior to that he was chief

economist for the u.s. department of commerce. dr. hall also spent 10 years at the u.s. international trade commission. he received his ba from university of virginia and his ph.d and m.s. degrees from purdue university. doctor, thanks again for being here. we are grateful to have your testimony. >> mr. chairman, and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment unemployment data we released this morning. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in april, and the output rate edged up to 9.0%. over the last three months payroll employment has risen by an average of 233,000 compared with an average of 104,000 in the prior three months. in april, employment increased in several service providing industries, manufacturing and mining. retail trade added 57,000 jobs

in april. this increase followed too much in which retail employment changed a little. over the month job gains occurred in electronics and appliance stores, building and garden supply stores, and automobile dealerships. employment increase in general merchandise stores offset a decline of similar size in march. employment in professional business services rose by 51,000 in april. since the low point in september 2009 employment in this industry has increased by 745,000. several component industry continue to add jobs in april including technical consulting services, computer systems and design services. employment in temporary help services was essentially unchanged in april. employment in leisure and hospitality grew by 46,000 over the month. ..

>> since a recent low in october of 2009, mining employment has risen by 107,000. other goods construction climate was unchanged over the month. it's shown little movement since early 2010 after falling sharply in the prior three years. employment in state and local government continue to turn down in april losing jobs since the

second half of 2008. turning now to measures of the survey of households, jobless rate edged up in april. the rate was 0.8% lower than in april of last year. there was 13.7 unemployed persons and the number of people unemployed for less than five weeks increased by 142,000 in april. the 27 weeks and over declined by 283,000 to 5.8 million. other households indicators show little to no change over the month. the labor change participation rate is 62.4% since january. the employment to population ratio changed little at 58.4% in april. despite changes in late 2009, the ratio showed little movement. the number of individuals was at

6.8 million. enrollment rose by 32,000 in april and edged up to 9%. my colleagues and i would now be glad to answer any questions. >> thank you very much. i wanted to start with the private sector numbers. those inerms fortunately have been going up in the last several months. i wanted to ask you just by way of review. the number for this month, the month of april we're looking at, is an increase of private sector jobs of 265,000? 268,000, i'm sorry. >> yes. >> can you give me the numbers for january, february, and march? >> sure will. the last three months it's averaged 253,000. >> but the average for the first three months of the year? >> the last three months.

>> the last three months, okay. >> in the particular months before were, total private was 231,000 in march and 261,000 in february. >> okay. and in particular, i was just wondering if you could comment by way of your analysis on just sectors in the private -- the particular sectors within the private sector overall. what are the sectors you seeing recovering most rapidly, and where are there areas still of weakness? >> sure. the sectors showing the quickest recovery are professional and business services. we added 584,000 jobs since the labor market trough. education and health has added a little over half a million jobs. leisure and hospitality added 290,000 jobs, and manufacturing added 244,000 jobs.

still struggling, financial activities actually has continued to lose jobs losing 42,000 jobs since february of 2010 and construction held pretty flat losing 9,000 jobs. the biggest declining industry is not in the private sector, but it's government. >> uh-huh. >> government's actually dropped about 391,000 jobs since june of 2009 since the recession ended. >> june of 2009. all the other numbers refer that same period? >> there was the sense the labor market trough, february 2010. i changed times on you a liability there. >> okay. we know these months, the two surveys, the household and payroll surveys, show numbers that are in conflict. just wanted to have you review that. the payroll survey shows strong growth in just overall job

creation about 200,000, but the household survey shows that there were 200,000 fewer workers employed. is that typical to kind of have conflicting stories from those two surveys during a recovery? >> yeah, it's certainly not a-typical. we get some slightly mixed signals, and the main reason is they are different surveys. there's some variation between the surveys. i do find that over three months they do tend to become into alignment. month by month they can give a mixed signal. >> give us 30 seconds on the difference of the two surveys? >> sure. when we talk about payroll jobs, we're actually talking about a very large survey where we survey business establishments, how many people are on your payrolls. we take advantage of the unemployment insurance program

because they look at the records. that's a very, very large survey, and it in fact represents 4 million people. that's 4 million out of 130 million payroll jobs so that's -- that's what makes it that a fairly accurate number, and when we say we gained 244,000 jobs, we're looking at that survey. >> [inaudible] >> with the household survey, that's actually a tornado telephone survey designed to give you unemployment rate, it's not designed to give you a number of employed. for example, when the household survey, you said it showed a drop of 200,000 jobs -- >> right. >> the uncertainty in that is 400,000 jobs. we're talking plus or minus 400,000 jobs when we say minus 200,000. we gain 200,000 or gained

600,000. >> i don't want to create a direct general sigh, but it's more like polling in a sense? you got a margin of error there? >> right. it's really designed to give you the focus on the accuracy of the unemployment rate itself. for example, typically the uncertainty in the unemployment rate is two tenths of a percent. it's fairly accurate for that, but not so accurate for the levels. >> okay. just so people clear who are watching, the household survey leads to the percentage unemployment rate that we pay attention to? >> yes, that's correct. >> thank you very much. vice chair brady? >> thank you, chairman dr. hall. every month of new job growth is welcome, but this a weak recovery especially given the trillions of dollars thrown at the economy by the white house and federal reserve, and i

always note that here we are after having spent all of that federal stimulus money, and we actually have 1.8 million fewer americans working than before when all that money was spent. as for this month, usually a small jump in unemployment rate signals people moving back into the work force that can be a good thing, but the rise in jobless claims and the jump the workers recently laid off are not signs of a healthy economy or healthy recovery. the number of unemployed who lost jobs recently increased by 242,000. this jump comes on the heels of large increases in initial unemployment claims, 474,000 which we have not seen it that high since last summer. shouldn't we be watching these

statistics very carefully going forward? >> yeah, i would say absolutely. the payroll job growth is, at least the last three months, has been accelerated so that's a good sign, but we have not yet seen things we would like to see in a strengthening recovery. >> the initial jobs claim, that was a big jump. we had four weeks in a row of increasing jobless claims. that's not expected in a healthy recovery, and those who just lost their jobs recently, could these data be pointing to a weakening job market? normally it ought to be going the other direction. >> right. i would say that the number of new unemployment claims is in fact -- is in fact a helpful data, and that is a -- that rise

is not a good signal. >> yeah. do you -- what do you think is happening here? >> you know, it's hard to say. >> the numbers seem to be all over the map frankly. >> right. yeah, you know, i think while focusing on one month's data is important, you have to look back at the trend and sort of see how the trend goes. sometimes maybe at points like this you need to wait and see how the data looks over the next month or two to see if that signals anything. >> yeah, well, we've been watching over the last two years and seeing recovery much slower than 81 and 82. we have an estimated $2 trillion of capital sitting on the sideline, businesses tell us they just are reluctant to invest it in new jobs, equipment, new structures, new buildings until they see more certainty coming out of

washington. i did notice -- i always appreciate the data you gave. i did notice there was increases in leisure and hospitality this last month, but that you attributed in your marks, two two-thirds of it were related to drinking places and food service, so is the bar industry doing better these days, and is that -- i'm being facetious, but there is a jump in drinking places? >> yeah, that was responsible for most of the growth in leisure and hospitality. >> i'm teasing. i'm trying to look -- we're all looking for the optimistic signs, and we see some private sector job growth that i think seems to be a good sign, but the longer term recovery which is to get more people into the work force because right now, we are

at the lowest number of workers participating in the economy in a quarter of a century so even as we look at the unemployment rate, look for hopeful signs, truth is very few people are participating or at least a lot of people are not participating in this work force, again, troubling signs as we go forward. we'll continue to watch month to month, but this really is -- we're seeing disconcerning signs. i yield back. >> dr. burgess? >> thank you. dr. hall, just so i can be sure of it, i'm clear, in your prepared testimony you talked about gains in the mining sector, and that includes oil and gas exploration and extraction? >> yes, it does. >> and does that include both

offshore and on shore? >> yes. >> now, just looking at the table a14 under the household data, under that line item of mining, coring, gas, and oil and gas extraction, the unemployment rate a year ago 9.4%, april 2011, 3.5% which gives that one of the lowest unemployment rates. in fact, it rivals government workers for its low unemployment right; is that correct? >> yes. >> the -- is there a way -- i guess what's confusing me is on your testimony you said unemployment in mining increase the 11% in april. i'm assuming we're talking about oil and gas exploration and

extraction in that 11,000? >> yes, that's part of it, yes. >> but, of course, we also know that because of federal policies, we've put a lot of pressure on the actual mining mining like coal mining so have -- do those two things tend to offset each other? >> well, actually this particular month both oil and gas extraction except oil and gas added jobs this month. oil and gas added 2,000 jobs. mining except oil and gas added about 2700. >> let me ask you this, do we know, what is the total universe of people employed in these industries? >> well, mining together is

about 720,000 people. >> but that includes offshore and on shore exploration? >> oil and gas extraction is 170,000 and mining otherwise is about 210,000. >> on the previous table, 813, construction and extraction occupations are lumped together. this is the employed and unemployed persons occupation not seasonally adjusted. >> yes. >> can we break those out for which -- because obviously construction, i mean, when i look at table a14 the unemployment rate for construction in april of this year is 17.8%, almost 18% so that is the highest unemployment rate in the current jobs report is in the construction industry, and yet on able a13 it's construction and extraction are

added together so like the total employed in april 2011 is 7042, but we know the greatest unemployment -- the highest unemployment rate is in the construction industry. how might to interpret that, how am i to break that down? sort of like the total universe of people on which these construction numbers and the mining numbers are based. >> sure. well, we don't have it in this release, but we can probably break this out a bit finer for you if you'd like. >> well, i think that's helpful. we, on the policymaking side, you heard some of it referenced this morning where some people are talking about significantly increasing taxes on the oil and gas industry. i don't know, maybe that's true, maybe it's not. we do seem to give a lot a way to the so-called green jobs

sector. where are the green jobs on this? >> at the moment, the green -- well, first of all, depends on how you define green jobs. >> i don't know, i just hear it. that's for you smart people. >> we will at some point be measuring green jobs. we are pulling the green jobs out of the industry because there are industries that specialize in green products that are sort of spread out throughout, and the big challenge for us is separating them from the rest of the industries. >> right. of course, these are industries that receive huge subsidies of the stimulus bill and various other things that we've done, the cash for talkers, and i say we euphemistically, but things congress has done if the last few years. is there any way for us to get a sense on what our return on investment has been for those big -- what people call green

jobs and other people call green pork? is there any way to get an idea of return on investment there? we're talking about raising the anti on the drilling sector. i don't know, maybe that's a good thing. let's see data on that, but we should be supplied return on investment data for what has happened with the federal plus-up of these other industries. >> yeah, i certainly think with the data as it is now, one might be able to get into that to get a feel for that. that's not something we would normally do, but our data probably would educate you somewhat on that as it is right now. once we get our green job projects, pulling out the green jobs, you can get a better idea of that, but that's a ways off. >> when can we expect that? >> i don't know. we're going to start collecting data next year on it, and so the

problem is going to be, of course, once you start collecting data, you don't know the baseline. you don't know -- but we'll have some idea starting next year with the number of people employed in these industries. >> the uncertainty principle, the mere fact you are looking at something means you can't be certain? >> well, actually we worked hard on getting a deaf -- definition that makes since. >> very well. that will be helpful on the policy side because we ask big questions and will be great to know what the return has been on the federal investment on this activity. not complaining about it because texas has a great number of wind farms we didn't have 20 years ago, but it would be nice to know what kind of return on investment did we get from those expenditures. thank you, i yield back. >> the treasury department reported the united states is expected to hit its debt ceiling

on may 16th. congressional reportly reported in anticipation of hitting the debt ceiling, today treasury stops issues state and local governments serious treasure securities that help states and local governments fund infrastructure and other projects. i find this deeply concerning because we already have seen thousands of layoffs taking place at the state and local level. you said there's a significant decrease in government jobs; is that right? >> that's correct. >> dr. hall, can you give us further detail for the committee, the current job situation throughout the state and local governments across the country, and can you offer any predictions regarding the impact of that treasury action may have on the state and local government's employment levels? >> sure.

well, i can tell you in terms of government employment, the government job loss has been centered primarily in local government jobs, so for example, local government, since the end of the recession continued to lose jobs something at the order of 370,000 jobs, which is a pretty high number, and there's the bulk of the government job loss since the end of the recession losing 791,000 -- 391,000, so that's not a significant number of employers. >> does your research go into whether women are disproportion ally effected with the government jobs? in other words, a high number of women who are employed by government? >> yes, i don't have it in front of me, but i think we should be able to get you an idea of that. i would think especially in the

local government. >> the -- you know, i netsed that the african-american -- noticed that the african-american workers increaseed; is that right? >> yes, it did. >> what were those figures? >> okay, sure. the african-american unemployment rate went from 15.5% to 16.1% this month, an increase of six tenths of a percent. >> do you consider that significant? >> it's not statistically significant. it's not a really large sample, so statistical significance is somewhere around 1.2 to 1.4 percentage points. >> you were answering congressman brady's question, you said we have to, and you said this in the past, is that we can't take just one snapshot

of a month. we have to look at a trend and where we are, so how do you see this, this month's numbers fitting into the trend, and did you see -- does anything here cause you to have any significant concerns that we may be going in the wrong direction? >> i would say in terms of trends, let me just say that the the -- what jumps out to me is there's three months of payroll job growth, about a quarter a million a month in private sector. >> is that significant? >> yes, that's significant, and i also think it's important in that you need about over a long time period, you need 130,000 jobs a month to employee new

people in the job force. we are getting well above the 130,000 per month jobs you need so this last three months looks to be an acceleration of the job growth. >> now, we're about to have many of our young people graduating from college, and how do you see that impacting? in other words, when we have this month of may and june where people are coming out of high school, coming out of college looking for jobs, how does that affect your numbers during that course? in other words, is there a big pump up -- bump up in demands and therefore affects the numbers? there's been the trend i guess i'm asking you. >> you know, i think one of the things most concerning say over the past year has been the labor

force not growing much. the labor force has been very flat which means we haven't had the normal entry into the labor force on net that we normally get, and -- >> some of those people are, i guess some of the young people are staying in school longer? >> yes, that's right. >> and then we lose people that just stop looking for work? >> that's right. i would consider it to be a another face of the recovery when we start to get an increase in the labor force and people get optimistic enough and start to reenter the labor force and we get growth. it has been concerning we haven't seen much growth in the labor force yet. >> my two questions i always ask you if the president for to ask you, commissioner hall, you know, i mean, where do we go from here? what does it look like? what would you say to the president? >> you know, the good news from the report is what appears to be

an acceleration in the job payroll growth. i think kind of what i just mentioned. i think the thing that we would look forward to hopefully like we'd like to see going guard is the payroll job growth to continue and maybe accelerate and give us enough confidence that we actually see the labor force start to grow and i think that would be, like i said, i think that's sort of the next phase in the recovery. >> the next question i ask for people watching this and trying to find a job, what advice would you give them based on geography, areas of growth, people maybe trying to go back to school to retrain, i mean, what -- based on what we have here, what would you tell them? >> well, you know, obviously, i wouldn't -- i wouldn't guide myself by monthly report because

this changes over time. >> let's talk about trends, the trends you see. >> sure. the trends are we continue to see growth in the service provider sector in particular. that sector historically is more recession proof than other sectors. this recession is deep and bad enough that it really has lost jobs, but as a general rule, that sector does better than other sectors, and, you know, within that there's lots of occupations likely to have strong growth over the next 10 years. >> like health? >> health care to financial examiners to computer software engineers, a number of things like that. >> right. thank you very much, mr. chairman. >> moving to a second round, doctor. the chart is up, sorry, i wanted

to go through the chart for a second. what's striking about this chart is it obviously depicts private payroll starting with the month of january of 2008 and it goes through this report that we're looking at now, april of 2011. what's stunning about that chart obviously is you got over, you got over the course of the last year, the month by month number, last year one administration into the other, but for a long, long period of time you have negative numbers on private sector job growth. obviously starting, and i want to make sure i'm reading this right, my staff can correct me. when we go into positive territory, it's what month? >> i believe it was march. >> march of? >> march of 2010. >> 2010, okay. is there any way that you can -- i don't know if you have the number calculated or if you can get it to us, the total

growth -- the total private sector job growth of that date from march of 2010 through april 2011 -- >> 2.9 million. >> jobs created since march of 2010 through this month? >> yes. >> okay. i thought that was significant, and i never thought of it in terms of it over that court of time. ..

>> our common denominator in terms of what type of work or what challenges they face. that's question one. question to is, is there any significance they face of that decline or is that more of, more of a standard number we have been seeing? >> sure. first of all, the very large number of long-term unemployed, the rise has been very broad. so almost all demographic groups, almost all industries have had a big rise in the long-term unemployed. but there's an over representation in that, for example, for those with less than a high school diploma, they are very much over represented. the unemployment rate is like a

six-point deficit of the long-term unemployed for those without a high school diploma. those who were either never married or widowed, divorced or separated they are over represented in the long-term unemployed. and in industries, construction stands out as having a very large, larger than expected share of the long-term unemployed. that never going to a little bit is not uncommon, but the thing that is tricky about that is, people can drop out of being long-term unemployed by just leaving the labor force or by getting a job. the way it is looking right now, to be believe labor force for everyone to get a job out of the long-term unemployed, 27 weeks or longer. >> one of the most compelling

pieces of data you just cited is that that refers to education levels. so in other words, if you have a high school diploma or less, i'm just trying to put a number on that. in terms of the likely you being not just unemployed, not being part of the long-term unemploy unemployed. >> you're probably, you are three times more likely to be long-term unemployed than someone with a college degree. >> thank you. dr. burgess, do you have anymore? >> thank you, dr. hall. if i correctly interpreted your answer to mr. cummings questions about geographically and which sector of the economy, if someone was really serious about getting a job right now, they would move to texas and practice medicine, is that right? >> if you have that option, it's not a bad what. >> let me ask another question. we deal with nonfarm payroll, is

that correct? but there's going to be in effect from what is happening in the central part of this country, kind of gets, kind of get obscured and headlines of all the other news, but there is a huge issue with flying of the farmland in central part of the estate, boarding the mississippi river. do you have an idea how that is going to affect things? as we see missouri, arkansas, memphis, tennessee. they said water is up to the sidewalks. what sort of effect will that have or is that just built into sort of baked in the process, baked into the cake where we can have a tough agricultural year? >> first of all, we don't collect data on farm employment. the department of agriculture does, i believe. they pay a fair amount of attention to data on employment on farm so i'm probably not the right one to ask. >> if those jobs are not there during the growing season, certainly may not be in the

fields are underwater, then that will push people into looking for work in other sectors, is that correct? there's bound to be a ripple effect, no pun intended? >> what would happen is it would not come probably not shot in our papal jobs numbers, it could well show up in our unemployment numbers. accounts are two different surveys and the coverage is like a different. with the unemployment rate, we are making phone calls and that will catch some of those jobs with a phone calls, but with a payroll jobs, we're only talking talking to nonfarm establishments that pay payroll taxes basically. >> again, it's an enormous tragedy and a story that is sort of not, below the radar screen for most americans. i'm told by people who live there, it's a flood of the proportions of 1927, 1928, when fully 1% of the usable housing stock in the united states of america ended up under water. it's a similar sort of circumstance today.

so i can't help but feel that's good to have a profound effect on whatever fragile recovery we're experiencing now. this is going to take a toll. do you have a sense as have the actual size of the labor force itself, the behavior of that, during what has been this very prolonged recession, i mean, it seems like the number of the sort of total side of the labor force is smaller today than what we used to talk about. >> that's right. the labor force participation rate literally gives you some idea. and the labor force participation rate is at a very low level. so i think statistics that were up there a minute ago, it's the lowest level since the '80s at some point your so that is a concern. >> we talk about all the trouble having with the deficit and what have you come and need to get people back to the workforce and

paying taxes. it's going to be harder to do that, isn't it? >> yes. >> thank you, mr. chairman. i will yield back the balance of my time. >> yankee doctor. commissioner, we're going to let you go in imola. one question i want to ask earlier with regard to japan, and, in fact, that that is having on our economy. i know it's not an easy question to answer, but both of the tsunami and earthquake, and whether or not there's an impact, some indication or at least probably speculation is probably a better word, that they could be an impact may be in our manufacturing. i guess told that yesterday's unemployment insurance claims data showed that 1700 employees who filed claims after being laid off from auto manufacturers in ohio. any data that suggests that that

could be related to what's happening in japan? and then secondarily, more broadly, is any data that indicates a broader impact from what's happened in japan's? >> sure. as i understand it, there have been some very short-term plant closings related to this, like when they are et cetera. and since the workers were employed most of the time, just having one day plant closing doesn't show up as a payroll job loss. it will lower our hours worked a little bit, but not really affect the payroll jobs. yet, my expectation would be if it's going to have an impact on the payroll jobs, in particular, that would likely start next month and we will get, see what we can see in the employment numbers in the automobile plants next month to see if there's

maybe and affect happy. >> okay. doctor four, we are grateful to have you here again. this hearing is adjourned. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]

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>> after the labor department announcement that the u.s. economy added 224,000 jobs in april, president obama went to replant and spoke with workers about the latest jobs report in indiana. allison transmission specializes in hybrid technology. in 2001, the department of energy awarded them a two hundred $60 million grant. this is about 25 minutes.

>> thank you everybody. it is good to see you. thank you very much. please have a seat. it is good to be back in indianapolis. hello, hoosiers. sorry about the pacers. [laughter] i am sorry, mr. mayor. give the mayor a big round of applause. he is doing a great job. [applause] along with the mayor, we have the secretary of transportation in the house.lahood [applause] we have your own member of congress here. [applause] and i want to thank larry do we

and everyone here in allison for their act extraordinary hospitality. it is wonderful to be here. i just had a chance to see the hybrid systems that you were working on here in the plant. i love seeing high-tech machinery like this. i stand there and people explain to me and they think i know they're talking about. [laughter] but it looks outstanding. att you're doing here allison transmission is really important. today, there are more than 3800 buses using hybrid technology all of the world. they're sitting 15 million gallons of fuel. pretty soon, you will be expanding this technology.

this will be more vehicles using less oil and more jobs here nelson. last month, united 150 jobs at this company and you plan to add another two hundred over the next two years. i am very pleased with that. [applause] this is where the american economy is rebuilding. this is where we are regaining our footage. we just went through one of the worst recessions in our history, the worst in our lifetimes, the worst since the great depression. but this economic momentum that is taking place here is taking place all across the country. today, we found out that we added another 268,000 private- sector jobs in april. [applause]

so -- [applause] that means, over the last 14 months, just in a little bit over a year, we have added more than two million jobs in the private sector. we made this progress at a time when our economy has been facing some serious headwinds. i do not need to tell you about that. we have high gas prices that have been eating away at your paychecks. that is a head wind that we have to confront. you have the earthquake in japan that has had an effect on manufacturing here. there will always be some ups and downs like these as we come out of a recession. and there will undoubtedly be some more challenges ahead. but the fact is that we're still making progress. that proves how resilient the american economy is and how resilient the american worker is

and that we can take a hit and we can keep on going forward. that is exactly what we're doing. [applause] despite the good word being done in allison, here in indiana and across the country, there are still folks who are in trouble. people are thinking where those new jobs going to come from that have good benefits, and can support our families? and how can we lose our dependence on oil so we do not have to experience high gas prices all the time? >the reason i am here today is because the answers to these questions are right here in ellison, right here in these vehicles, right here in these transmissions. this is where the job of the future is. we will have a lot of jobs in

the service sector because we are a mature economy. but america's economy will always rely on outstanding manufacturing where we make stuff, where we are not just buying stuff overseas, but we are making stuff here and selling it to somebody else. [applause] that is what allison is all about. [applause] this is also where a clean energy economy is being built. this is the kind of company that will make sure that america remains the most prosperous nation in the world. other countries understand this. we are in competition all around the world. in other countries, germany, china, south korea, they know that clean energy technology is what will help spur job creation and economic growth for years to come. that is why we have to make sure that we win that competition.

i do not want the new breakthrough technologies and the new manufacturing taking place in china and india. i want those new jobs here in indiana, right here in the united states of america, with american workers, american know- how, american ingenuity. [applause] that is also how we will get gas prices under control. i confess, it has been a while since i filled up. [laughter] the secret service does not let me, you know, fill up my motorcade. [laughter] but it has not been a long ago since i watched those numbers scroll up. i know how tough it is. if you have to drive to work and you may not be able to afford buying a new car, you have that old beater that gives you 8 miles per gallon, it is tough.

it is a huge strain on a lot of people. but if we can transition to new technology, that is what will make a difference over the long term. that is how we will meet the goals that i have set of reducing the amount of oil that we in court, by one-third in the middle of the next decade. we can hit that target. we can hit that target. in the short term, we still need to do everything we can to encourage safe and responsible oil production here at home. in fact, last year, american oil production reached its highest level since 2003. i want everyone to remember that, if people ask -- sometimes i get letters from constituents who say where we not drilling more here? we are actually producing more oil here than ever.

but the challenges that we only have 2% to 3% of the world oil reserves and we use 25% of the world oil. so we cannot just a drill our way out of the problem. if we are serious about meeting our energy challenge, we will have to do more than drill. that is why real solutions are clean grow solutions, advanced by officials -- there is a lot of biofuel work being done here in indiana. it means that we need natural gas vehicles. we have a lot of natural gas that can be produced here in america. it means making our cars and trucks more energy efficient. if we use less oil, that reduces demand. that brings the price down. and you will see the impact at the pump. that is what will make a difference and that is what would you are doing here is so important. it warns out that, even though they do not let me go to the gas

pump, i do have a lot of cars under my jurisdiction as president. the federal fleet is enormous. we have already doubled the number of hybrids in the federal fleet. i am directing every agency to make sure that 100% of our cars and trucks are fuel-efficient or clean-energy vehicles by 2015. so you will have a customer hopefully in the united states government because we want to make sure that we are making a clean, fuel-efficient cars and trucks. [applause] we have also launched private sector partnerships with companies like fedex, ups, utility companies -- a lot of these companies that have trucks and delivery trucks that are used in urban areas with a lot of stops and stops. they are perfect for the

technology you are building. we are forming partnerships to make sure that you have more customers. and to spur the production of fuel-efficient cars and trucks across the country, we have reached an historic agreement with every major auto company thank you to the leadership of ray lahood. not only will that say 1.8 billion barrels of oil, but will save you, the average driver, about $3,000 at the pump as cars increasingly get better gas mileage. this july, we will finalize new fuel-efficiency standards for heavy-duty trucks for a first time in our history. that could actually end up saving us -- we were talking about this the other day -- it could help us save 500 billion barrels of oil, huge amounts of oil, because heavy trucks used so much. we are also promoting a clean energy technologies in other ways, from investing in hybrid

systems like the one allison is developing for commercial trucks, to championing vehicles burning natural class, spurring the generation of electric vehicles. a few years ago, america only produced two% of the world's advanced batteries. those are the batteries that are going into these new electric cars. because of the investments that we made in the first two years that i was in office, we are on track to produce 40% of the advanced batteries. that will be a huge boon to american manufacturers. [applause] that is an example of a big new industry that we can create right here in the united states of america. to make sure we are not only investing in clean energy technologies, but encouraging people to use these new people to use these new