more than middle-aged people. if you start talking louder about the social security benefits, whatever, that have been promised to older voters, that's also very dangerous to older politicians. we actually followed this in representative ryan's plan to address this long-term entitlements plan, but actually his proposals did not affect anybody over the age of 55. there was some cutoff like that. all of the painful cuts really came in to people who are younger today and most likely to vote him out of office.

>> in some of the latest developments on capitol hill today, harry reid is tentatively endorsing a deal to raise the government's debt ceiling and cut spending. there is a new agreement on the table. it includes enough borrowing authority to keep the government funded into 2013 it would include an immediate hike in the debt limit with the second increase to be accompanied by trillions of dollars in future spending cuts. phased in over a decade. the senate right now is in recess. earlier there was a vote to move forward with another bill, supported by majority leader reid, but that bill did not get enough votes to continue in the senate. in the house members voted the reid measure down yesterday. members had gaveled back in for a very brief pro forma session earlier before adjourning until 10:00 a.m. eastern time. and they'll have legislative business tomorrow at noon.

bring youinue to updates here on the c-span networks. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] >> republican governor terry branstad on your screen right now. we're pleased to have you on "newsmakers." thanks for being here. >> you're welcome. i'm glad to be here. >> dan covers politics for "the washington post." alyssa is with the associated press. and dan, we're going to start with you. you won the short straw, as it were. >> thank you. governor, welcome. as you know, washington is consumed right now with the debate over what to do about raising the debt ceiling. i wonder what the consequences are for your state if this deadline of tuesday is not met.

>> i inherited a real financial mess when i was elected last year. we came to office with a plan to spend less than we take in. we went through a long and tough session. got that accomplished. we passed the two-year, not a one-year budget for the first anytime a long time. and we have projected out for five years. we have a balanced budget, spending less than we spent last year, spending less than we take in each year. now, the federal government has for many years been spending way more than it's taking in. in fact, i think only 60 cents of every dollar is actually coming from revenue and the rest is borrowed. obviously it needs to change. we think what the states have been doing makes more sense. and the federal government needs to obviously put together a plan that's going to dramatically reduce this debt. and not just extend the debt ceiling but actually put us on a path to restoring fiscal responsibility in our nation.

will take the votes of both republicans and democrats given the difference in power between the house and the senate. again, one of the consequences for your state and other states if this doesn't get done by tuesday? >> well, we don't know exactly what the consequences are. i think, first of all, i don't think scare tactics make a lot of sense. i think we need to work together to resolve these issues. when the state of iowa was facing a potential shutdown, i said we're going to do whatever we can try to provide services as best we can. fortunately the legislature came through and ended up reaching an agreement, a budget. i have a split legislature just congress is split. i have a republican house and a democratic controlled senate. it was not an easy process. but we got the job done. it was close to the deadline. but it was accomplished. i expect the president and the congress to resolve this as well. one more ask you question on this. do you think that the tea party conservatives in the house have

been too unwilling to compromise? >> well, i think the people that were elected in 2010 came in with a real message from the voters. and that is, we need to dramatically change washington. we cannot continue business as usual. we can't spend a dollar for every 60 cents that comes in, in revenue. so i think they've come in with a real message from their constituents and feel strongly that things need to change. they saw a democratic congress. saw before that a republican congress. both of which spent way more than was being taken in. and especially after obama became president, we had all of these bailouts and all of this spending. and especially the health care plan. people can see this is not affordable. it's not sustainable. we need to change directions in this country. >> in that case, do you think they should continue to hold out for the terms that they have been asking for even if that

pushes us passed tuesday? >> i don't know the details of the terms and all the different plans in washington, d.c. i just know you look around the country and you look at the states, you look at what chris christie did in new jersey what bob mcdonald did in virginia. they got things on the right track in their state. a bunch of new governors elected in 2010 of both parties have been reducing the size and cost of government and putting state governments on a path of sustainability. that's what needs to happen in woid without as well. -- washington, d.c. as well. >> i want to talk about the big month coming up in iowa in august. there's a lot going on in the g.o.p. primary. can you handicap the race for us a little bit in iowa and specifically handicap the straw poll, as you see it now, a couple of weeks out? >> well, first of all, it's a very fluid situation. as you know, the last time romney won the poll but then the iowa caucuses was won by

governor huckabee. since huckabee decided relatively late not to run, things are wide open. and romney is not competing in the straw poll. so, you know, the two -- romney is the national frontrunner but not competing in the straw poll. so you've got a wide open situation. congressman michelle bachmann was born and raised in iowa. i think she got off to a really good start here. governor pawlenty, the former governor of minnesota, although he's not done well in the polls, he may surprise some people i think he may do better than people expect. also, you got ron paul, who's going to be competitive in this. herman cane. rick santorum. just recently rick perry, although he's not going to be on the ballot. there is an effort to get votes for him that could make an impact so it's a wide open situation.

and, again, the straw poll, you know, isn't the iowa caucus. so i would expect -- you know, it's going to be a very open and fluid situation. and obviously the people are due better expectations as huckabee did four years ago. he could give them a real boost for the iowa caucuses and for the subsequent primaries and caucuses in other states. >> can you give us a little sense about the history of the straw polling? you think that in recent years its impact on the race at large has been diminished? >> well, actually, i think it's grown in its influence. more people participate, and it's been a nice runed raiser -- fundraiser for the republican party in the state of iowa. and yet i think we need to look at it realistically. this is not a scientific survey. it is really a early test of organization.

and it's sometimes not who wins it but who exceeds expectations. the last time a lot of people thought then senator brown beck, now the governor of kansas work do well. and actually what happened is governor huckabee beat brownbeck, came in a surprisingly strong second, and then gained momentum from the poll on to the caucus and then ended up defeating romney in the caucuses. i think this time romney is trying to keep expectations lower. he's not competing in this straw poll or any other straw polls. and yet he's the national leader. i think we have a wide open situation at this point in time. iowans also like to get to meet each of the candidates, hear from them. it's an opportunity to share their vision of where they want to lead the nation. so i think this is a good beginning point. but i don't think you should

just assume whoever does well in the straw poll necessarily will win the iowa caucus or win the republican nomination. >> could the opposite be true, too? >> well, it's whoever exceeds expectations, you know? i almost think if you have somebody that's not expected to do well that does well, that could give them some real momentum. and you've got several months between the straw poll and when the caucuses are held. so certainly that's what worked for huck i huckabee last time. i guess the question is, who does that work for this time? >> governor, you know that state better than almost anybody else in the country. >> i've won is it elections in iowa -- won 12 elections in lost.never [laughing] >> we're aware of that. you also know and have the ability to judge political organizations. at this point who would you say has a better organization in iowa, governor pawlenty, or congresswoman bachmann?

>> i would say pawlenty has a better organization. bachmann has done better in the polls. i think a couple of reasons. her announcement went really well. she did well in the debate that was held in new hampshire. i think those things helped her. and she's a native iowan. she grew up -- she was born in waterloo and spent her early years in iowa. i think pawlenty may surprise some people. he's gotten a lot of key people involved in his campaign. he is aggressively campaigning throughout the state. so it's kind of interesting. here you've got two minnesotans competing. but they're not the only ones. i think you need to look at herman cane who's got a following here, and ron paul, and rick santorum says he's going to beat people's expectations. who knows what rick perry's write-in efforts may produce. it looks like he will get in the

race after the straw poll. so it could be a wide open situation. who knows? is there may be others that i haven't even mentioned that could do better than expected. >> i wonder how you would assess governor perry's ability to in iowa.effectively what kind of an iowa candidate might he make? >> well, remember, george w. bush, who was the governor of texas at the time, won both the straw poll and the iowa caucuses and went on to be elected president of the united states twice. so being governor of a big state like texas, a state that's been very successful in economic has apment, perry also following i think among both economic and social conservatives. so he's got a potential to appeal to a broad base of a republican caucusgoers. >> do you think if he were to get into the race he would be in competition to win the caucuses? do you think he could win the

caucuses? >> well, it's hard to say. it all depends on how much time he spends in iowa, how good an organization he puts together, and what kind of a vision he's able to show where he would lead the country. in thed perry getting race in iowa force governor romney, do you think, to rethink his approach to how he's the iowang for caucuses? >> well, it's my understanding romney intends to compete in the iowa caucuses. but i think his strategy this time is not to spend a lot of time and money here early in the poll but instead put his focus on. he's going to participate in the debate. he intends to compete in the caucuses. i think he recognizes that you can't be a national frontrunner and not compete in the first phase. come innor perry would on the right plank of the republican party. he's a conservative. there are many folks in iowa many candidates in iowa, who are conservatives and going after

that same pot of, you know, social conservative voters who form the base of the g.o.p. electorate in iowa. could there be a situation of, you know, splitting that vote, paving the way for someone like romney who has a -- someone like huntsman, for example, who says he's not going to compete in the race but also has a few moderate divisions to come in and win the caucuses? >> i actually met with governor huntsman when i was at the national governor's meeting in salt lake city and suggested he rethink his position of not competing in iowa. i think really after iowa since romney is the frontrunner, whoever does well in iowa either wins the caucuses or surprisingly a strong second. it's going to be them versus romney in new hampshire. and everybody else is not even going to be considered. you know the way it works. iowa wins over the field, and it's down two or three candidates. i think he's making a strategic mistake by not competing in the iowa caucuses. i suggested he take another look

at it and recognize that, you know, it's not the be all issue in iowa anymore. corn prices are good. we're anticipating that we'll see a phase out of the subsidies on ethanol. and we were strong supporters of renewable fuel, but that is not the deciding issue that he said why he wouldn't compete in iowa. so i think that's a mistake not to come in and compete here. and certainly governor perry also has a position that has not -- that has been basically anti-ethanol. and that's an issue he has to deal with. he competes in iowa. but i think he intends to do that. you've said that you plan to remain neutral in the race for the foreseeable future. on the other hand, you've made clear you think that the kind of experience that governors have qualifies them to be presidents in ways of people that don't

have that may not be qualified. that was taken as criticism of congresswoman bachmann. do you think that shellacs the experience to be a good president? >> well, first of all, i didn't say that as criticism of anybody. i really wanted to say that my observation and experience -- i'm a raying raying admirer -- ronald reagan admirer. i was an early supporter of ronald reagan. he was the governor of california before he became president. you look at american history, a of our best presidents, i think, came from the ranks of governors. the governor is the chief executive unlike a united states senator or congressman who is in the legislative branch of government. they're in the executive branch. so i think that's an advantage. congresswoman bachmann, however, is a tax attorney. she understands finances. our country is in dire straits because it's been mismanaged for way too long. so i think she's got some good ideas. i also think -- she's a very

attractive, articulate, energetic candidate and has been able to generate a lot of interest and enthusiasm among tea party people, but also among other voters as well. >> as you know, governor palin has announced that she's going to attend an event in early september in your state. do you think it is too late for her to get into the race and mountain effective campaign in iowa? >> well, i don't know that i would say it's too late. it's getting late. but this time it's kind of developed a little later than normal, too. with governor palin, you never know. she's pretty unconventional in the way she does things. she was here for the premiere of a movie recently. she endorsed me basically on twitter. [laughing] i didn't even know it was coming.

i guess i have a lot of respect for her keeping her options open. i'm not sure what she's going to do. she hasn't given me any inside information. >> but, governor, can a candidate run an unconventional campaign in iowa? the iowa caucuses, and win? >> well, that's a good question. the conventional wisdom is you want to spend a lot of time here, build a strong organization. and that's kind of the way i've won the governor's races in iowa and certainly the advice i've given to candidates is dom iowa often -- come to iowa often, try to get to all counties, meet with people, share your vision, answer questions. and that's the way i think you should do it. so i don't think you can do it by just doing a few rallies in the state. she decides to become a candidate, she needs to come and spend a significant amount of

time. it goes way back 1980, ronald reagan lost to george h.w. bush iowa because he and his family went to virtually every county. and john sears was running reagan's campaign. they thought they could do it with one rally per congressional district. sears wouldn't return my phone calls. i was trying to tell him it was a bad strategy. of course what they did is they went to new hampshire dean what they should have done in iowa, and they announced that sears was out. that's when i knew that ronald reagan hadn't lost the touch. he knew what he was doing. he just blew it in iowa, and sears was out after that. >> i wanted to talk with you a little about the impact of ron paul. four years ago he was seen by many in iowa and elsewhere as -- talking about issues that people

weren't necessarily focused on. but this time with the economy and the debt ceiling and such, what's his level of strength there? have you been able to gauge what his level of impact would be? he said he's able to win the straw poll. can he? can he win the caucuses? >> that's a good question. he has an ardent group of supporters. he could surprise some people here in the state of iowa. i guess i question whether he's likely to win the caucuses. but i think he could do better than he did four years ago. and i think considering the financial problems with countries, he's been warning about the way things have been operating in washington, d.c. for a long period of time. i think a lot of people are saying, you know, he's been right and we need to change course and direction. so i think you will see a

certain level of strength. but there's also a lot of candidates to choose from. and some of it stands on some other things. his libertarian positions on things like legalizing marijuana and stuff like that don't sit well with a lot of conservatives in this state. >> governor, as you know, there have been a number of folks, republicans who have been critical of the iowa caucuses saying that they are not a fair test for a mainstream conservative, that the caucuses are too heavily dominated by one part of the party, the most conservative part of the party. do you worry that over time iowa's influence in this process could be diminished if it is not regarded as a fair test? >> well, first and foremost, those people that are skeptical about all who are providing a fair test, i would point out my primary election last year -- i got in a race late. there were people that were

identified with the very evangelical social wing of the party, yet i was able to put an organization together and win a decisive victory in a three-way race getting over 50% of the vote and going on not only to win in defeat. the first time an incumbent a h been defeated in iowa since 1962. so i guess my feeling is i believe that there's a broad base of iowa republicans that are open and voted for either romney or huckabee last time that are up for grabs this time. and i think as a candidate, it's a mistake to miss an opportunity for this very crucial first test. all you have to do is talk to rudy giuliani. his strategy was a disaster because he skipped iowa and new hepshire, and by the time got to the states he was going to focus on like florida, essentially he was out of the

picture. in your case you were competing in a primary last year not a caucus. >> right. the caucuses are a different breed of tasks. so the people are saying that it's not a question of whether the iowa republican party as a whole is representative. it's whether the caucuses are too dominated by social and religious conservatives. >> you know, i think the caucus the year. upon i remember when bob dole won the caucuses handily in this state. i also remember -- you know so i think it all depends upon the personality of the candidates, the kind of organization they put together. i don't think that we should rule out the possibility that an economic conservative couldn't the iowa caucuses. it really depends upon the quality of the candidate and how effective they are getting their message across, what kind of an organization they have. and there is a difference between the primary and the

caucus in that in the primary election you can vote absentee ballot, and the polls are open all day. the caucus, of course, is in the winter. it's dark. you've got to go out to a meeting hall or something. but nevertheless -- and we saw this on the democratic side four years ago. obama brought a whole lot of new people in, surprised everybody, and defeated hick hick here in iowa -- hillary clinton here in iowa. if you get the right kind of candidate with no contest on the democratic side, they can appeal to a lot of independents, decide to join the republicans go to the caucuses, dean much better than expected. so i just think that premeditate trying to pigeon hole the iowa caucuses as being unrepresentative need to know the state a little better. i've seen how these things can change. i think conventional wisdom last time was you could not have the kind of turnout that obama generated in iowa. and i would like to see the republicans do the same thing

this time. >> we have three minutes left. the last question from each. >> governor, this is yet another cycle in which the iowa's leadoff caucus factor is -- kicking off the entire primary season is under siege, if you will. more than a dozen states are considering moving their -- the primaries or caucuses earlier into the year. can you guarantee that the iowa caucuses will be held in 2012? >> well, 2012 or 2011? >> that's what i mean. >> they'll be held. and they'll be first. and i think both parties agree on that. we don't want to lose our status as the first in the nation caucuses. and both republicans and democrats in iowa are strongly committed to maintaining that position. if we have to move our caucuses up as we did four years ago, we're certainly ready and willing to do that. >> governor it sounds like we all better make reservations for new year's neigh des moines.

>> well, you're welcome to come for christmas, new year's, all other holidays as well. >> my last question goes back to the straw poll. if you were betting today, who would win the poll? >> well, i'm not a betting man to begin with. i think it's a wide open situation. at this point in time i really don't want to make a prediction of who's going to win the straw poll. but i think it's wide open. and a lot could depend upon what happens between now and when the straw poll is actually conducted. so whatever goes into that with some momentum and has the kind of organization could surprise some people. just like last time. remember, the straw poll was won by romney. but huckabee exceeded all expectations. gave him a real boost it led to him winning the iowa caucuses in january. >> governor branstad, thanks very much for being with us. we'll see you in august and either november, december. [laughing] >> all of the above.

>> appreciate your time. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] me turn to our two guests after this conversation to get your perspectives on this first of all, i want to start with issues. the governor made the point that ethanol was no longer the be all and end all, as he used the phrase. from traveling the state, from talking to people who are in, what are you learning about the appeal to the voters on the g.o.p. side this year? >> well, i think that the most important issues there are the same ones that are important to the rest of the country. and i think it's jobs and the economy. and for republicans it is the size and role of government and the need to cut spending. so economic issues, i think, are more dominant. and i think it's big economic issues, not particularly iowa centric economic issues. >> well, where are the social conservatives in this? presuming they care about jobs the economy, what's top on their list? >> i think for -- there is some talk of social conservatives being this is a moral issue.

so they're tying the economic issue back to morality. look, i think you do have single-issue voters in iowa. and conservatives, evangelicals who are focused on, you know, what we would call wedge issues. right? but at the same time, i think the economy is so dominating right now that those issues are taking a back seat not just in iowa but across the country. >> i was interested in the governor's conversation about his formula for success, visit all 99 counties. but, in fact, we heard about sarah pamin's twitter -- palin's twitter endorsement. i'm wondering where we might see a situation where new technology up ends the formulas even in iowa. >> i believe in this cycle there are opportunities to do things in terms of organizing voters and touching different voters that can you do through social networking that in the past you had to do only by being on the ground organizationally.

put that to ay full test. to some extent the obama campaign is credited with all of the things they did to exploit social media the last time. but they did it in concert with having more in iowa, for example, more field offices than any campaign in history had ever had. they were on the ground many more places in iowa than any other campaign so we don't know whether there's a fair test. i think everybody talks about there's a new way to do it or there could be, but nobody has yet put it to the test. >> i also think this is the first -- there's no election like this one. but it's hard to compare this time to others, other elections. because in just a matter of a few years how political campaigns are run and how we cover political campaigns is so dramaticly different because of changes in the media environment in changes in things like social networking, twitter, like social networking, twitter, you