republican party. and james pindell. we will take your calls about the latest polls and the role of independents with pollster david paleologos of suffolk university. w j" is next. -- "washington journal" is next. ♪ host: good morning and welcome to "washington journal" on this tuesday. we are looking at video of the first votes being cast in the small town the kids of new hampshire voting. the associated press reports that nine voters with injured three democratic ballots were

cast for mitt romney. two each for mitt romney and john huntsman. they have cast their first ballot in the state's primary since 1960. now they will go to a live shot of manchester, new hampshire, c- span is there this morning and we will hear from ward 4 at the mcdonough school later on today. first we would like to hear from you about the new hampshire primaries, what you think about the race of the republican nomination? what if you heard over the last few days that has caught your ear? what you expect to see happening today? here are the numbers to call. and if you are in new hampshire resident, you can weigh in. you can also e-mail us and find us on twitter.

we can get that and read it on the air, and join the conversation on facebook. add your comments there. let's look at the "wall street journal" front page today. making the final pitches on the eve of the new hampshire vote. newt gingrich, john huntsman, ron paul, mitt romney, and rick santorum each making their final pitches. we will hear some of their latest ads in the attacks on them this morning as we hear about the latest news out of new hampshire. here's the story in the "wall street journal." mitt romney is republican rivals thought to weaken the central plank of his campaign. that is experienced as a corporate marauder who profited off the misery of others. it is an extraordinary debate over what is acceptable behavior.

here is what mr. gingrich said on nbc's today show. looking at the front page of the "washington post," and image of derry, new hampshire were throngs of reporters and tv cameras were gathered with rick santorum. he defended his business career and need -- and there was a story about ron paul. saving paul. there was no fanfare and bodyguard. dr. paul, for the past three years, had come from believing

and barack obama into believing that the country was riding toward total economic and social collapse. it talks about a 32-year-old at the event, giving the microphone to representative ron paul. he is to ron paul is appealing to. and whether not expected to come in and second place? some are saying that mitt romney has the lead, and so he may have a more secure run their in new hampshire's. but there is a race on the second if not for first. let's go to the democratic line in jacksonville, florida. hi, clarence. caller: an exciting day here in america for the new hampshire primary. it will be interesting to see how different this is from previous races, when you look at the amount of personality uc and the republican field. herman cain with his 9-9-9.

host: that was totally inappropriate. we're talking about the candidates and what was going on in new hampshire. let's go to nebraska. caller: yes, i do not like mitt romney, [unintelligible] creative destruction in capitalism. host: tell us more. caller: when obama took office, the capital, destructive. it was sold out. the capital in the plant. when a business sells out, that capital in the business is still there.

it might go under. host: let's hear from a democratic caller in new york, new york. caller: i apologize for the previous caller's comment. host: i do, too. go ahead. caller: i think romney in the end will pull it out because he has the money behind him. and money talks. but you know, i am a democrat, and i'd vote democrat for decades and decades. but i would cross over and i would vote for huntsman, because i think huntsman is a reasonable, rational person that they could do a great job. but i do not think that -- i mean, as the american people, i think we cut off our noses to fight our faces.

we bicker and argue, and i do not think that we can get it together in that, republicans and democrats, to take a guy like that. i am just a guy in new york and i am not politically active, and i am not calling in, trying to -- but i think a man has what it takes to really unified, but we just are destructive as a people in the nation. i do not think we will allow it. host: if you are a fan of john huntsman, what would it take for you to get more motivated to join his campaign, support him more or poor play, or get involved? would it take a good showing in the new hampshire primary? what would change your mood about this? caller: i would send him some money. i would vote with my pocketbook if i did not think -- i hope he does well today.

if the show some progress, then definitely. but i think we're just destructive as a nation, and communally. i do not see how we can get it together enough to put a guy like this into a position where he might be allowed to do something. host: this is a look good jon huntsman and had called "country first." clip: because of attitudes like that. [applause] clip: there are a lot of people tuning in this morning, and they are terribly confused after watching all of this political spend up here. i was criticized last night by governor running for putting my country first. and i just want to remind the people here in new hampshire and throughout the united states that -- [applause] he criticized me while he was out raising money for serving my country in china. yes, under democrats, like my

two since are doing like in the united states navy. they are not asking the political affiliation of the president. i want to be very clear with the people here in new hampshire. i will always put my country first and i think that is important. [applause] clip: i am john huntsman and i approve this message. host: was cut to james in grand junction, michigan and our democrats line. caller: good morning, america. all the ads that i see on the tv about republicans and their nominees for the presidency i see none of them talking about the working poor or african- americans. all i see is them talking about helping the upper-class and the caucasians in america. these men have stolen millions

from america they are talking about -- they want less taxes and want to talk about them helping america? i see them only taking. newt gingrich has taken, mitt romney has taken, present form is taken during ron paul is a racist. and america, have a nice day. host: as move on to david in missouri, the independent line. good morning. caller: good to hear your voice and and seen people trying to participate. i am calling to ask, why have they forgotten that the strongest chain is its weakest link? we need to put this country back together. there's no sense and all of this bickering and political

posturing. whether you're a democrat or republican or independent, we are all americans. host: david, how do you think that is playing out? caller: it does not seem to be working too good. it is more like a boxing match up there in congress. the president cannot get nothing echoing in his direction because of political posturing. and yes, i can appreciate somebody making money, but making money off of money, it is not a good idea of. money, financing who is going to be the next president, it takes away the voter, whoever has the most money seems to be able to buy even the contents of the country that we once had, and that is where the country is at. host: list take a look at one of

the latest presidential polls to come out, just out this morning. we get it from suffix university, how the candidates are weighing in at this point. over the past two days, it shows mitt romney in the lead with 37%, ron paul pulling at 18%, john huntsman just behind at 16%. going down the list, santorum 11%, newt gingrich and 9%, and then rick perry and buddy roemer 1% each, and 7% of voters are undecided. that comes to us from suffolk university, and we will have one of the pollsters there, david paleologos, joining us about that that that they are getting from like you -- likely voters of new hampshire. that's hear from john, a republican caller from kansas city, missouri. caller: good morning. i had a question on your programming. how does that work on your call

screening -- specifically. you have got a delay of the broadcast to stop the offensive calls. host: actually we screen people and ask them where they are calling from and make sure that they have not been on the program in 30 days and we hope that we -- they come on the show and share their perspective. caller: and so the call screening, with a time delay. maybe that is part of your process, call screening and in your time delay. host: we do not have a time delay. caller: you have nine? pardon me? host: go ahead, john. if you have your television on, there is a delayed from what you hear on the lam line and what you hear on the television. i notice the person that handles that did not cut off a caller

who was condemning republicans with a very offensive language followed by the most offensive language. i think that they need to have their finger on the button to stop offensive callers involving the republican candidates, as well as democratic candidates. host: we thank you for your feedback spirit we do not want offensive comments regardless of affiliation. thank you. what you think about the new hampshire primary today as a republican? do you have someone you are supporting? caller: i would like to see newt come along. mitt romney is a great candidate. i was for him rather than the liberal john mccain the last time. i thought he was not a particularly sharp -- by his own admission, he was one of the lowest candidates and i did not think that was anything to brag about.

host: did you consider credentials when you picked sarah palin -- when he picked sarah palin? caller: yes, but look, it is redundant but and he suspended his campaign and he went ahead and went along, he got nowhere. john mccain was positive with the media for years because he condemned republicans. when he ran as a republican on a national basis, then they turned on him. you in the media love democrats. don't you? host: as i mentioned before, we lock all opinions here. john mccain endorse mitt romney. we have not yet to the -- we've not heard a former governor of alaska is supporting, but her husband as supporting newt

gingrich. there is some controversy and got the attention from opponents. clip: nothing wrong with spending your entire life in politics but it is a kind of bubble. and outside that bubble is where i live my first 25-40 years in my career. and i have learned what it is like to sign the front of a paycheck, not just the back, and to know how frightening it is to see whether you can make payroll at the end of the week. these experiences that many of you know. i know what it is like to worry whether you're going to get fired. a couple of times where i wondered if i would get a pink slip. i care very deeply about the american people. it frightens me to see a president who has made so many mistakes when people are hurting so badly. clip: if you do not like what you do, you can fire them. i like people to provide services to me. if you do not give me the good service, i want to say that i am going to get somebody else to

provide that service. and so that is one thing i would change. host: making comments to get attention of a last couple of days in new hampshire. let's look at the "washington post." and an assault on mitt romney, assaults and his business career escalated after he met an off- the-cuff comment that shows he was a corporate predator and saw profits at the expense of workers. at a breakfast of business leaders in nashua -- host: this is how john huntsman responded.

let's listen to mitt romney explaining the comments he made. clip: i was talking about insurance companies. we like to get rid of insurance companies that do not give us the service that we need. i do not want to live in a world where we have a obamacare telling us which insurance we have had, which dr. we can have, which hospital we can go to. i believe where people can choose their own doctor, choose their own insurance company, and if they do not like the provider, they can get rid of them. that is the way america works. i know freedom front -- free enterprise is on trial. we have our president to does not believe in the right of people to do that, but i believe in the right of people to get rid of an insurance company they do not right -- but not like. host: he also defended comments about the pink slip. those have been chosen by his

opponents as talking points. this listen to a democratic caller in glendale, ariz. the caller: he has never really had to work a day in his life. if romney is the best the republicans can come up with, they are in real trouble. i am about the same age as he was. we were both around detroit, and now. i was 15 miles an light years away, he has ever had to work a day in his life. he is a george bush redo and you better wake up, people. the republicans have dragged the political conversation so far over to the right, we are at day

and age where someone like ron paul, a right-wing coup, is given a lot of room. host: less not used to arrive at a names but we can keep -- let's not used derogatory names. along the lines that you're talking about, we have a texan way and then on twitter. he uses the hashtag of the tea party in his tweed. -- in his tweet. caller: i am a black woman and this is my second time a call into your program. when are you going to have a black person to it -- a black woman who is a monitor? host: i will give that to our

producers. thank you for the comment. would you like to weigh in on the new hampshire primary? caller: no, i am an independent, and i will m curious to know who is going to be the nominee there. host: does what happened in new hampshire matter to you? would you be watching it? caller: oh, yes. caller: will that influence your vote? caller: i am going to vote for the president that we have right now. but i am curious to the republicans are going to put up against him. host: let's go to joe, a republican caller and staten island, new york. good morning. caller: good morning. my question for the first caller, the democrats are all pulling the race card. we have a black president, all right. he is doing an ok job. and he is bashing the

republicans, saying that they are all against the poor and the african americans, and they are for the rich and caucasians. and he is calling them a racist. that man is the racist. host: who is calling them a racist? are you still with us? i think we lost that call. the president has not called the candidates' racist. as good a lancaster pennsylvania, frank on the democrats' line. who do you think will prevail today in new hampshire? caller: i would like to see huntsman prevail. he seems to be the only one up there that is clear-cut and levelheaded. the all of them things -- the rest of them make the republican party seem like a minstrel show. they all claimed they are supposed to be religion separate from politics, and this year

rick perry, he cannot remember anything, and santorum is like someone back from the civil war. i'm telling you, it is disgraceful way these republicans are. and the minute someone says anything about racism or anything like that, they are like all people -- all black people are trying to make this an issue because we have black president. but he is not just a black president, he is the best president we have had in some time. the things that her is doing -- he is doing all necessary to bring our country back again. no one seems to really care as long as bush and his crowd were taking our country down a rough path, and wasn't doing anything, could not heartless thing straight. so god bless america, and that the republicans hope to have any kind of a chance, which i hope mitt romney does when so that we can have an easier election for next president obama, praise be

to the lord. and thank you so much. and if they want to know the truth about things, keep listening to your show and msnbc, because both you and msnbc with chris wallace and the rest of them, they'd tell the truth. these other people out there, they do not tell the truth. they do not want people to know the truth. godless and have a beautiful day. host: us story about jon huntsman. he is third behind romney and on paul. he has attended more than 170 events in new hampshire, but has been denied the top of the polls here. you see an image of him out campaigning with his wife in concord, new hampshire. he was a margin of error and it and now they are calling them third. on the independent line, good

morning, linda. caller: i like to make a comment about mitt romney. what i took away from his comment about the insurance companies, but i took away from that is that the american people need to realize that insurance companies are comprised of employees as well. employees with families. and so would everyone of us decides to fire an insurance company, our insurance companies, then that in effect would be saying that they would be firing employees as well. and my second comment, about jon huntsman. he has the human touch. i watched a segment last night with he and his wife, and they talked about the adoption of the baby from china and india. if i was the vote for anyone today, it would be jon huntsman, and that segment last night really did it for me. but obama, my third comment,

obama inherited a mess. ok? eight years of george bush created the mess that he inherited. and it is not going to be fixed overnight. so thus far i think he has done a great job, and four years he has done enough to rectify the situation. the problems that we got ourselves in. and that is my comment, thank you. host: baltimore, md., on a republican line. caller: i wanted to say that i have been listening for the past half-hour and listening to a lot of different people call in and complained that, criticizing all republicans as being racist, and against poor people. i am a poor white female from baltimore and i'm a republican and i do not want to hear that. i'm getting so sick of hearing it, because we have to work hard

ourselves to earn -- we should not be handed everything. host: can i ask you, since you're talking about this issue, of who is looking out for the poor, who is looking out for the working class in america in the race? what you think about what is going on with the other republican candidates pointing their finger at mitt romney, saying that his version of capitalism has hurt americans? do you buy that? caller: no, i would vote for ron paul, that is to buy would vote for. host: why would you vote for him? caller: i have been listening to a lot at his rallies and speeches, and all the as saying is heading in right on the now, hitting it home. people are saying, picking an older white man for president, and it is not about white or

old, it is that he is wise. he has been in the government system and you will know a lot more than some of these younger people today they just do. host: let's look at a story about ron paul and the "washington post." a steadfast devotion to the people they see less as a candidate than a cause. let's hear from doug in bloomington, indiana on our democrats line.

caller: hello. the thing about the republican candidates is like they are so far to the right that mitt romney being all little bit more liberal, he actually looks like he is the metal. but none of them are for american labor. they tend to be driving down the standard of living for the average american. and the whole republican party kind of becomes masters at getting republican poor people to vote against their own interest. when that lady from maryland called in and said it is all about race, that may be how the issue becomes as divisive, but it is really not in your own best interest to vote for republicans at all, at least in my opinion. host: let's listen to mitt

romney is at it was airing yesterday in new hampshire. ♪ clip: this election is about more than just replacing and president but saving a vision of america. when we look beyond who we are today and asked who will we become tomorrow. america over the years have consisted of men and women with vision and passion are willing to take risks and work hard, but today in washington with our president, he does not understand that america off. he does not understand our economy. he does not think that it is free enterprise that made it america strong, but government. it is people, not government, that makes america great. we're going to keep america the greatest nation in the history of the world. thank you, guys.

host: that is a mitt romney ad during up for the primary today in new hampshire. c-span is on the ground in new hampshire and we will have coverage this evening as the primaries continue. you can buy more information on our website, starting at 8:00, we will have speakers by the presidential candidates, and we will also take your calls. you can find out more at c- span.org. another story today. mitt romney's rivals at escalated a ferocious attack -- a soft -- assault. let's hear from an independent caller in springfield, neb.. caller: good morning.

this is the first time how have ever seen your show. i kind of like it. i am basically a ron paul advocate, or whatever you want to call me. about the other person that called in, maybe he should look at that disappearing middle class, ron paul has could remarks on that. and people need to realize the major religion, your sexual orientation, pro-life, pro- choice, these are all things that divide us. when we are divided, the easier we are the conference of people. -- to conquer as a people. what these politicians have done to our country, we are basically bankrupt. well, we are bankrupt. but we cannot continue to spend and spend and spend, and people think that we can outlast this

empire, well we are in that decline right now. people need to realize this. we are hated around the world. that is because we think we can just do these things to people and have no responsibility and and we are not accountable because we are the only superpower in the world. this is absolutely ridiculous, a mentality that cannot go on. at some point in time, we're going to have to be accountable for what we have done around the world. host: an e-mail that came in from robert and south carolina. and in dairy company venture, and joins us on our democrats line. good morning. caller: you are doing a

wonderful job. i watched the show often, some people have been feisty, but you seem to be doing wonderfully. a lot of the attention has understandably been on the republican primary, but sometimes people feel that there are two primary is going, and i am a democrat and i did my research last night and i saw that president clinton actually won 84% of the votes in 1996, which surprises people of watched on and other lesser known candidates forum, there are 14 names on the democratic ballot. it will be interesting to see what that percentage that president obama gets. i think he is going to do a lot better. a lot of my neighbors do not like michele bachmann. i really do. so many people think that she is a --

host: of let's watch our language and keep this conversation productive and have a dialogue that advances a conversation. there is a democratic primary going on in new hampshire, and we will talk about that later on in the show today give more details. president obama is the expected winner, but there is an effort to get democrats out, to show some strength in new hampshire and their support for the president. of republican caller, good morning. you are on the air. please turn down your tv. caller: i am right here. host: please go ahead and turn down your tv. caller: i am watching right now. i have serious concerns about what we're dealing with in our country right now. with our current president and i feel that right now we're being taken over within. honestly, i feel like someone

like ron paul is not even a chance that we cannot elect him, he is someone to save us and bring us into what we believe america once was. and what we're seeing america turned into, day by day, hundreds of thousands of video cameras across america, is what we saw in germany and world war ii, it is the exact same. is repeating itself in history and if you cannot see this, then this is an absolute issue that the american people need to address. host: let's take a look at other stores in the news. a shift in strategy. the shake-up will split policy meetings from politics. president obama announced the abrupt resignation of white house chief of staff, william daley.

is a top ticket he to secretary of state roy rodham clinton. he also served as a top executive at citibank. daley told the president about his resignation last week. the president initially refused his resignation and asked him to reconsider. more here on this headline. it says that his move marked the end of iraqi 1-year tenure, whose original mission was to reach out to congressional republicans --

let's hear from president obama speaking on this yesterday. clip: my administration has made no more important decisions quickly than bill, and that is why i think this decision was difficult for me. naturally when bill told me his plans to go back to chicago, i asked him who i thought could fill his shoes. he told me that there was one clear choice, and i believe he is right. so today i am pleased to announce that jack lew has agreed to serve as my next chief of staff. let me begin first of all by thanking route for allowing jack to serve in what i know is one of the most difficult jobs in washington. jack has had one of the most difficult jobs in washington, serving as the director of the office of management and budget. as anyone who's been following the news lately continue, this is not an easy job.

host: president obama announcing that his chief of staff would be leaving and being replaced. it has drawn attention as the white house team has in the -- is entering an election year. look at more stories in the news, from "usa today." a former marine convicted of spying for the cia. the sentencing of an american man to death in iran for allegedly beyond the cia are operative prompted outrage from his parents in michigan and the white house. his parents are shocked and terrified about the sentence. he claims dual citizenship of iran and the united states, one in arizona, graduated from high school in michigan. also in the news this morning, justices grappled with voting rights case that could help the house. a reporter for the "new york times" reports that several

supreme court justices appeared frustrated -- another story here from bop "baltimore sun," the first native tried -- recognition was sweet, even if it came more than two centuries too late. he was one of hundreds who gathered beneath the statehouse dome in annapolis monday --

and won international news story, this one from the "washington times." austerity alone is not alone. boosting economic growth and the 17-nation eurozone as a priority. john joins us from indianapolis on the independent line. good morning. what you think about the new have to primaries? caller: i watch it because it tells me in on the candidates, but what i like to tell the american people is that all the republicans are telling us the same thing, tax cuts and deregulation. that is what has gotten us into the position that we are and now. do they realize that they are paying a lower federal tax than they have ever paid? the reason taxes are so high, the states are having to raise their taxes.

and, you know, i would really like to compliment you, libby. you do a great job on the show. and that is all i wanted to say. host: david, a republican in north carolina. caller: i was wanting to say, remember what we allow when we said her the rest of the country -- we serve the rest of the country, we enable a lot of good living. that is all i need to say today. host: is going to birmingham, alabama on the democrats' line. hi, dana. caller: when we look at the candidates that we had before, like ron paul, we can be more informed. i like his character. on paul said in a book that he wrote personally that people suffering from hiv and aids have

the responsibility because of their actions to pay for their own health care. he never considered heterosexual transmission which shows a change in his armor or character in my opinion. for the people who do, i want to give the reason why black people assume -- host: lets not lompoc whole group of people together. confine your comments to what you think about the candidates today. let's go on to our next caller. in gainesville, florida, what you think about the new hampshire's primary? caller: i think that ron paul is the clear and definite choice to restore america. i am a young black republican, and we're trying to fight the good fight. people, stop being ignorant. do your research, learn about your candidates, do not call a

man racist just because your neighbors said something, or your friends and something. do your own research. and another thing i want to say is, black people have this on dying alliance to obama when he has done nothing for us, and the thing is that ron paul would to weigh more for white people that obama. thank you and good morning. us paint let's look at a comment on facebook. karen says -- demetrias, a democratic color in memphis, tennessee, good morning. turn down your tv, you are on the air. caller: hello? host: go right ahead, please. caller: i am a disabled guide. i live in memphis, tennessee. i am demetrias. i was in an automobile accident,

trying to get disability since 1990. i was pronounced the doj -- doa, and i can get social security to pronounced my case. what can i do to get my case of the grand? >> i do not feel the republicans would do this for me. the president that we have, he is doing a good job, but he needs to have more time like john mccain said, i think it was the iowa for the new hampshire, but i believe the was the iowa, he stated that if obama had more time, he would bring this country around. he would do well with more time. what do you have to say about that? host: we will hear from wayne

macdonald on how things are going in new hampshire. our cameras are at all local polling place in new hampshire to talk to primary voters. host: we are at war for an mcdonough school, new hampshire. what do you do for a living and how did you vote? guest: i will not tell you how voted. we worked in the cable industry. host: what have you made of the gop field this time around? guest: almost a process of elimination. a couple of people i eliminated right away. i spent some time, thought back on experiences from the last go around, and really made up my mind this morning. host: so you had not decided -- what made you decide this morning? guest: i got on the internet

have knowledge that my last two people. looked at their policy is a little deeper, and in my decision. host: how about the debates on saturday night and sunday morning? guest: they were a big part, both of them. i wanted to see the mix it up a little bit. the sunday morning debate in particular was more of a test. it seemed like the same debate, playing for the stakes, one republican is not supposed to knock another one, but i thought it was more of a test. host: so sunday morning you thought the mixed it up a little more. guest: id force me to think more about each of the can that -- it for me to think more about each of the candidates. i still think the debate is pretty shallow, not a tremendous amount of debt. i thought ron paul did a nice job of bringing that out. it really encouraged me to look

specifically at the policies on a deeper level. host: have you met any of the candidates at town halls here in new hampshire? guest: yes, i have only gone to one. years passed, it is a really neat thing. i can remember meeting jimmy carter around the corner and thinking who is this guy? he was from georgia. and i thought he'd never had a shot. host: do you think that there will be a surprise tonight? guest: i think it will be closer. i do not think it is that surprise but it will be closer. host: who will be second? guest: i think it will be mitt romney and then husband. i think this had more of a surge -- he has had more of a surge. i do not think that he takes it, but i think it will be closer.

and things will get closer across the board for all of them. host: how was this time different from four years ago? guest: i do not think it is as exciting. in general, i do not think it has been exciting. it was all a little deeper, more challenging, and so i am not picking up the same excitement. host: have you always voted republican? guest: do not tell my mother, but yes, ever since ronald reagan. ronald reagan when i was in college brought me into the party, i guess it said. host: you do not want to tell us who you voted for this time around, but what about last time? guest: i am not clear to tell you. i did vote for ronald reagan. host: thank you for spending some time with us.

host: we will check in later today with the voters at ford for. we're looking at manchester, new hampshire. is primary day there. we're joined by wayne macdonald, the chairman of the new hampshire republican party. good morning. he suggests that mitt romney will come in first, followed by jon huntsman. what are you seeing and hearing from your gop members about the race today? guest: the polls have consistently shown governor romney and a very strong position. by all indications, he remains in that strong position this morning as we head into the actual ballots in. but there is been more movement underneath his position. governor huntsman has been moving up, and that gentleman makes a valid point bank

governor huntsman has campaigned and in the debates talked about sensible bipartisanship, and bipartisanship is something democrats like to use against republicans as a wedges thing. they do not believe in bipartisanship as much when we are control or they are controlled. but at the same time, governor huntsman has been very articulate about why he chose to serve in the obama administration. he has defended himself on a number of fronts, doing so saturday night and sunday morning, and that resonated with some of the people thinking about gridlock. those are some of the reasons he has moved up. also, his hat and extensive field staff here working hard, and i do not know what their exact strategy is, but i do not know. congressman paul and the others are working hard, also.

up fairly fluid situation for second place. host: we're talking with wayne mcdonald. here are the numbers to call. if you are in new hampshire resident, you can join us also. wayne mcdonald, what is your prediction for turnout today? guest: i agree with the secretary of state. he has said 250,000 people will cast a republican ballot today. prior registration is 232,000, but it means that most republicans will vote today, plus a lot of undeclared voters will be taking a republican ballot. because of our system, you can vote on the republican side.

that is realistic, and only 75,000 are expected to vote in the democratic primary today. a strong turnout, it always is. whoever new hampshire recommends to the rest of the nation today will be a solid choice, i think. host: how are you thinking about the polls and new hampshire voters and how they will line up with what you are hearing on the ground in what you will see happen today? guest: there are a certain amount of undecided voters, 50% or even higher, and a number have said that while they have made a choice, they're not 100% committed to that choice. that is going to be a variable and we will see how that plays out. looking at different primary's over the years, and i have been doing this since 1976 to one extent or another in presidential races, i remember back in 1980 between gov.

reagan and george h.w. bush, the polls showed a fairly tight race. gov. reagan won substantially on primary night. another example of george bush and senator mccain, so the polls can be misleading. it as such a long period of polling, there's a certain amount of voter fatigue. it is a small universe and sometimes they just play games with the pollsters, sometimes. host: let's look at some twitter comments. and we have others weighing in, a response to that. this is just a new flavor of

catton, it says on twittered. you can also join us on twitter. the tier one of our calls from new hampshire. tim joins us on the democratic line from durum. caller: i am a democrat, so none of the other candidates have much traction, so i will go with obama. there were wonder two others that were serious. new hampshire politics, i will interface with the race as we followed, we know there is an aggressive house speaker, bill one was that he is strongly in favor of what i call right to work for less. most of the republican candidates addressed the new hampshire house and were in favor of it. another thing that he induced -- he endorsed, newt gingrich and his candidacy but did not give much of a bounce from that.

he did something unusual was scheduling committee hearings all day today for the new hampshire's house, despite of what he said on the floor, which is unprecedented and is having a session day tomorrow, also unusual but not unprecedented. what is the chairman have to say about that? guest: speaker o'brien has been a very aggressive leader, a very dynamic leader. he is speaker of the house, and the party is proud of him. i know that he is certainly raising hackles, so to speak, among particularly the democrats, and even among some republicans. but when he came in, he recognize that the state was facing an enormous financial crisis and anticipated $900 million shortfall, potential

deficit of $900 million, and he approached that very aggressively. he in the majority leader of others in house leadership. they have addressed many of the failures over the last quarter years, of the democratic administrations in the state house and the state senate, to get our finances under control. when you make tough decisions and provide real leadership to address the crisis of facing new hampshire, you are going to make some enemies, because you're going to make tough decisions that affect people. i commend the speaker of bryan and the senate president for their leadership. once the dust settles -- and it is already starting to settle from the budget negotiations, the budget negotiations that their republican legislature passed and the governor allowed to become law without a signature, once the dust settles from that and other issues that have come up and are likely to

come up, i think the voters of new hampshire will see that the republican party is getting the state back on track. host: another new hampshire call, on the republican line. where are you calling from? caller: i'm calling from portsmouth. how was the city manager and part of my job was to prepare for the primaries. i know what the chairman is going through. i know you have a big day today. with regard to how turnout will affect the eventual results, mr. chairman, do you believe that mitt romney has a big -- host: i apologize for that comment. we're trying to keep the conversation up this morning. guest: i wanted to make sure i heard him right. host: you heard him right. what -- how is the chairman of

the republican party deal with primary day? guest: i cannot support a candidate. i respect all of these individuals, all highly qualified men who has served in government in various capacities over the year. congressmen, senators, that service has distinguished them all. we are delighted that have been participating in the new hampshire primary. party like -- law prohibit people in authority from supporting a candidate. i say that any of them will be far superior to barack obama and will really help this country in a way the barack obama has failed to do so. what i have been doing today and since friday night, on a continuous basis, it is going out and talking to the media, promoting the primaries, talking about the issues. i had a joint conference call with our national party

chairman, reince priebus, yesterday. we talked about the significance of the new hampshire primary, how great our candidates are, and how barack obama has failed america. that is what i have been doing, especially yesterday and today, and i will continue to do that all day today. host: let's hear from a democratic caller in harrisburg. good morning, sherman. you are on the program. caller: how does he say that obama has failed america? how has obama failed america? host: go-ahead. caller: -- guest: i and every conceivable way, obama has failed america. a $15 trillion national debt. his only solution has been to consistently spend more money

and increase taxes to the point of $1.50 trillion, which is mind-boggling. continuing to pull money out of the hands of ordinary americans. continuing to tax and regulate business so that they cannot create new jobs. it does not help people to get employed or get them out of the financial straits they are in. internationally, we are no better off. he has started two wars. none of this stuff helps america. he talked about hope and change, but i would argue that the hope has faded and that the change is in the wrong direction. host: this is from the publisher's note book. it is about the primary. "if it is at all cold and snowy, no one need go out and vote."

"ron paul winds, hands down, as far as passionate supporters." host: what you think about this independent union leader weighing in on passionate supporters? guest: he has been an outstanding leader in new hampshire and to the journalistic community. i had the privilege of being on a program with joe yesterday morning, in fact. newt gingrich has a distinguished history in service

to the party and the nation. i wish speaker doing crash well -- speaker newt gingrich well. certainly, any one of these candidates are outstanding. every voter the compulsively make it to the polls should go out today and vigorously support their candidates, as they had been doing throughout this campaign. in the event that governor romney wins today, this is not the end of it. we take a lot of pride in the recommendation from new hampshire, but the race will continue to south carolina, florida, and nevada. throughout the nation. i hope and expect that every republican will support that nominee and i am confident that that nominee will win. host: our guest is the chairman of the new hampshire republican party.

wayne macdonald has served at every level. there is a story in "politico," showing us five things to watch in the event -- november. host: how will he do in new hampshire? she says there's also a question about the race for fourth. here is what she writes.

host: two other items that she asks about -- host: wayne macdonald, are those all items that you agree with? things to watch? guest: speaking of the union leader bounce, that endorsement as always covered by every candidate. i have worked on a lot of campaigns and presidential races over the years. and you go to the editorial board, you meet with the union leader, you talk with joe and others. that is an endorsement you

always wanted very much. they are definitely a major factor in the outcome. in some cases, as mr. mcquaid said yesterday, it can make the difference. host: go ahead. guest: that is a factor. the newspaper endorsements are a factor. the biggest thing that helps you in new hampshire is been here a lot, meeting voters and shaking hands, so that they can really get to know you and make their decision. host: let's hear from brian in ohio on the independent line. brian, are you with us? sounds like we lost them. let's go on to p.j., republican, calling us from new jersey. hello. caller: i have a question that i would like to answer and then

make a comment. why is ron paul running as a republican and not an independent? i can answer my own question. republicans have no intention of backing ron paul they are offering him up as an avenue for the dissenters to rundown that happens to be a dead end. the system is corrupt at this point. i am a conservative, white republican, and there is nothing left to conserve. i would urge the voters not to vote. ralph nader had a good idea. none of the above on the ballot. ron paul should get it, but he will not because he is a shill. thank you. host: wayne macdonald? guest: congressman ron paul has a long and distinguished history. i think that i speak for my counterparts throughout the

nation, having spoken with him about candidates, they can speak for themselves. it is a refraction -- reflection of what we all believe. congressman paul's service is certainly appreciated. today we will vote for these candidates and impact their number of delegates. it will be true or around the country. citizen participation is critical. this is not a smoke-filled back room. this is an open process. i wish congressman paul well. we welcome his candidacy. i hope that he does well. between now and the time that the nominee is voted on in florida, i hope that they feel fulfilled. they need it. everyone is needed in this process. the real goal is defeating

barack obama. whether it is congressman paul, mitt romney, rick santorum, or newt gingrich, we have got to defeat barack obama or the future of america is in doubt based on his policy. host: mandy, port richey, florida. good morning. caller: i have a question that i would like to ask. i would like to know why so many older people have medicare and social security and would vote for a party that wants to do away with that and let the younger people save their own money to pay for their own medical and social security, unless of course all of the young people in the country were to become millionaires? i would like to know, what is your comment on that? guest: no one is talking about getting rid of these programs. what we are talking about is reforming these programs.

the fact of the matter is, and everyone has seen this, the gentleman that just called has seen the numbers, the current spending and funding mechanisms for these programs are unsustainable. there are a number of different reform efforts underway. yes, it is difficult. president bush tried to address the social security challenges. there are fewer people paying in and more and more people needing those services, more and more people retiring. and it needs to be reformed. it is not a bad word, it is a necessary word. the republicans have been encouraged in this issue. ignoring it will not solve the problem, it will all to merely result in no one getting social security or getting any help, which is not what we want to see. host: comments coming in by e-

mail -- host of this is a comment from twitter. kelley writes something -- host: this is a comment from twitter. tony has a challenging tweet. "does anyone think that new hampshire is at all representative of the nation"? why should new hampshire be the first primary state? guest: new hampshire is the most politically active state in the nation on a per-capita basis. it has a 400 member house of representatives. as many of you listening probably heard, it has a legislative government with more people running or office from

the state out of any other in the nation. we are a very politically active state. retail politics is very feasible year. the voters can really examine you, as do those tough questions and ask, what are you going to do about the deficit, jobs, the economy? this is a state this season and has demonstrated time and again that you have to come in at least second if you want a chance to be president. we take that seriously. i am not saying that the other states do not or do not care

about the presidency. they do. my friend chad connolly will be hosting the next primary in south carolina. it is a larger state and a more expensive media market. certainly, florida is a much more difficult state. new hampshire is uniquely qualified in that regard. we have demonstrated that since 1920. it has been tweaked over the years. i think we have demonstrated that we serve the nation well. host: do you think that the state is representative of the country? guest: we are not as demographically diverse, in some ways, in terms of the racial

population and religious population, and so forth. but in terms of political philosophy, we have a strong democratic party. we have liberals and conservatives in both parties with an industrial base. we have high-tech and rural areas, as well as suburban areas. we yet -- we are a diverse state. we can look at it from that standpoint and function. host: wayne macdonald is the chairman of the republican party in new hampshire. we're talking about the republican primary this morning. good morning. caller: thank god for c-span and you good people that take the abuse from the populace every day. my main concern is that i am rapidly losing faith in the

republican party. when you look at how the media sabotages ron paul, he does not exist unless they have to talk about him. there is big money behind mitt romney. just like they backed up barack obama. i think the wall street scares the living hell out of them. because they will love be able to steal from the american public anymore. at least with ron paul at the home, we will get back to our constitution and our liberties -- at the helm, we will get back to our constitution and our liberties will be protected. the votes seemed to have been flipped by the attorney general. i wonder if he is the same man

today. could you comment on that, please? guest of the question is -- is mitt romney the same man today as he was four years ago -- guest: the question is -- is mitt romney the same man as he was four years ago? host: you can start there. guest: four years ago he was talking about his business background and the economy. the financial crisis has not really improved since. he was talking about his leadership in the private sector and the ways that he could help the nation. he was talking about the leadership that was needed in foreign policy. he is the same man. absolutely. he continues to emphasize these points throughout the campaign.

in 2008, after president obama 1, his campaign for republicans in new hampshire and around the country was on these points. i would also like to address the concerns about congressman paul that the gentleman mentioned. whoever the nominee is, whether it is mitt romney, ron paul, or senator santorum, all of these guys have an incredible amount of talent. an incredible amount of insight into the nation's problems. the fields of leadership, running to bring this nation back. i hope that we will look at their opponents to that end. host: the caller talked about the integrity of the electoral

system. can you talk about that? how secure is the system? guest: we do not have voting machines in new hampshire. you fill in an oval and it is scanned and red. it is as foolproof as any system can be. it is not like the old punch cards with hanging shad's or any of those. if things go to a recount, there is actually a document signifying every single vote. the suggestion that the attorney general somehow flipped the

results, we have had democratic governors throughout this time. the attorney-general and their interest in a republican primary would not be very strong. while i may disagree with what the attorney general may do, i respect the office. there was no voter fraud or corruption. sometimes the outcome of an election is on both sides. there are elections between the attorney general's office and they run very clean elections. coast of florida, independent line. good morning. caller: god bless america -- host: florida, independent line. caller: god bless america.

as a leader, all leaders are partially responsible in all states. i voted for bill clinton in his first election. i voted for reagan in his second election. my question is -- do you feel that mitt romney would be a leader in the form of barack obama? or would he be a leader in the form of ronald reagan? guest: thank you. i absolutely feel that, ultimately, mitt romney, if he is the nominee of the republican party -- and this is the beginning of a long process that will culminate in florida with a nominee being formally chosen. if it is mitt romney, i do will leave that he will be much more like ronald reagan. he is articulate. he understands what needs to be

done. he understands that taxes need to be cut. he did some of the same things that ronald reagan did as governor. ronald reagan was, on social issues and a host of affronts, was very aggressive in california, as mitt romney was in massachusetts. there are a lot of similarities there. if he is ultimately the nominates -- nominee, he would be very much like ronald reagan. he is not remotely like barack obama. host: this comment comes to us by e-mail. george writes from colorado. host: what do you think about that? guest: governor reagan was a very effective leader. to be an effective leader, you need to look at what everyone has to offer.

that includes moderates. there are times, you know, when you have to look at all segments of the political spectrum. he had a democratic house, for example, and a very liberal speaker from massachusetts. he had to work with all sides. ronald reagan was a conservative to the court. i do not think that anyone would dispute that. if he were alive today, he would be a very effective competitor. i think he would still win the nomination. every election is different. it depends on the field and a whole host of factors. ronald reagan would be very much a strong candidate for the presidency today if he were running. fort let's hear from j in lauderdale. caller: my question is also in

regards to congressman paul. i was wondering what your opinion is, what your views are, on how much of an impact the media has on the voting decision of the public. the reason that i asked the question is because i notice that a lot of the stuff that i am seeing is basically saying that ron paul has no chance, saying that mitt romney and rick santorum, or mitt romney and newt gingrich are always the front runners. that they are the spoilers for the other guys. how much of an impact do you think the media has on the voting of people? should there be a break, or should it be more neutral?

guest: the media does have an influence. they meet the candidates one-on- one. there is a lot of direct information that the public gets from the candidates that is unfiltered. the media has a major effect on many people. a lot of folks cannot make that a house party down the street to meet congressman paul or governor perry. many voters in new hampshire, politically engaged as we are, but with family or work commitments, have to rely on what they hear and see on television. there is no question that the media has a lot of influence. there are many media outlets for biased.

we may talk about one candidate more than another. if they do not criticize them or paint them in a bad light, in some cases they ignore them altogether. i think most media is fair, very balanced. they try to lay out everything going on with the campaign. that is their job, to be as factual as possible and get the word out. most media provide a valuable function in that regard. host: let's get the details on what is happening in the primary in new hampshire. this is from yah hoo news.

host: of course, we started off with the first community that boats, a little bit after midnight. -- that votes at just a little bit after midnight. can you describe the difference between a proportional system and winner takes all? how does it work there, in new hampshire? guest: with a partial system in new hampshire, you get the delegates based on a percentage of the vote.

i'll cite the 2000 election. it is the most clear example. new hampshire was awarded 17 delegates by the republican national committee. senator mccain got about half of the vote and would have ended up with probably about eight dead -- a to delegates. governor bush got roughly one- third of the vote. he ended up with five delegates. mr. ford got two delegates. then there is a scatter. most candidates do not meet the threshold. senator mccain wound up with a couple of extra delegates. governor bush wound up with five. mr. forbes got two. that is a proportional system that we use. winner-take-all is much easier. if you get that proportion of the votes, like governor reagan

in california, you get every single delegate as long as you get a majority of the vote. particularly in some statements. it depends on state law, but it is a great system if you hear it right. you do not have to worry about winning by a lot, as long as you beat everyone else, you are home free. host: let's hear from bonny in middletown, new jersey. caller: good morning. i have always been amazed that republicans are always concerned about deficits when there is not a republican in the white house. our deficit situation began with ronald reagan. we were the biggest lender nation in the world when he entered. when we left, we were the biggest debtor nation in the

world. $10 trillion of the debt now was brought about by reagan and the two bushes. our prior president had a strange accounting system. he kept $3 trillion off the books, like organized crime does. as far as president obama being a failure, we were bleeding 750,000 jobs per month under bush. we are now seeing a steady reduction in the unemployed. we are seeing a gain in gdp. osama bin laden, whom president bush said that he did not give much thought to, is now dead. we took care of the situation in libya with no feet on the ground and now lives lost. i think that our standing right now is much better than it was prior to president obama coming

into office. host: we are just about out time. let's listen to our guest. guest: the caller certainly had a lot to say. the fact of the matter is that republicans are always concerned about the national debt and deficit. democrats are hardly ever concerned about it, no matter who is in the white house. it continued under the new deal, the fair deal, the great society, and barack obama. when we have tried to cut the budget and address financial concerns in this country, such as under ronald reagan, he tried to cut the budget and do different things and the fact of the matter is that the democratic house fought him every step of the way. they never except in a budget that he submitted and always

wanted to add to it. democrats have done all this stuff. anyone that supports barack obama and believes he is some kind of fiscal conservative or have done anything to help this nation fiscally, poverty is at its best under barack obama. the downtrodden and the disadvantaged, those numbers have increased under this administration. rock obama talks a good game, but he does not deliver. host: wayne macdonald, chairman of the new hampshire republican party, thank you for being with us this morning. guest:. host: coming up, -- guest: thank you. host: coming up, we will go back to the polling place in downtown, manchester, to check in with more primary voters.

clip: tell us the role of the clerks office on primary day. clip: we are -- we wind of training all of the officials on -- throughout the city. we are also responsible for compiling all the data at the end of the night and reporting to the secretary of state office. clip: what kind of training do you do for the folks that are trying to keep the process going smoothly? clip: we break the training up into individual roles. many of the election officials have done this for years, but we keep them up-to-date with new election laws and we refresh their memories, where there could be months between

elections. clip: what is the role of the moderator? of clip: they run the election here at the polling place. clip: you talked about the ballots. the polls open here at 6:00 a.m. what time did they close? what happens next? clip: polling closes at 7:00 in the evening. at that time they will take account from the ballot box and seal them. paperwork is done, showing the votes on the ballot. clip: is there a second look at the ballots before they are sealed? clip: they do go through them twice a clip:. is it digital? -- twice. clip: is a digital? clip: it is all done by hand.

clip: once they are sealed, what happens to them? clip: they are transferred to city hall, where they are put in a vault. clip: you said that all of that info is collected at city hall, in downtown manchester. what does the city clerk's office do? clip: all 12 wards will report to the clerk's office in chambers. we will show the display on the screen of all the wards reporting. that belle the folks just heard is the school bell here. there is no school in manchester for kids today. clip: talk about the undeclared voter. not the independent voter. you do not call the -- call them that in new hampshire. talk about that. clip: voters can be a registered republican or democrat.

if a voter does not wish to register with either party, we call them undeclared. those voters can vote in either primary. if a voter has previously voted in a primary, a democrat or republican, they have the opportunity to go back to undeclared after that election or any time through the next primary. then they can choose which ballot they want to vote on. clip: tonight, where is it announced? and by coup in the state? clip: the secretary of state is responsible for announcing the results. clip: what are we expecting for turnout? clip: 40% turnout in new hampshire. clip: thank you. host: we will lead going back to the school in ward 4 in

manchester in 45 minutes to check with them again. joining us now is the political director of wmur tv in manchester. good morning. guest: welcome to primary day. well -- host: welcome to you as well, to our viewers as -- and listeners. tell us what the polls are revealing to you. mitt romney with a sizable lead. take us from there. guest: mitt romney does have a sizable lead, 41%. second place in the poll, and we stopped calling people at 6:00 on sunday night. ron paul was strong in second place. rick santorum, then after that

newt gingrich. you have a race that is shaping up for second, third, fourth, and possibly fifth place. what has changed, i think, since sunday, is a lot of momentum, buzz, and interest amongst those classic undecided voters toward jon huntsman. the key question this morning is whether or not jon huntsman has overcome ron paul. it is not like ron paul's voters will be going away. the question is, on the poll on sunday night, we had 56% of likely republican primary voters still making up their mind. many may be late deciding to vote for john huntsman. host: folks were joking on twitter that there were back-to-

back debates on saturday night and sunday morning. there have been a lot of advertisements towards voters. how influential is the last couple of days? guest: very influential. new hampshire voters make up their minds in the last couple of days. new hampshire voters really like to meet their candidates. maybe they have met them at a house party. the explosion, the amount of people coming in to these events, is pretty typical. beyond getting to know who that person is, or a story line in that campaign, they have a decision to make. 15% of and not make that decision until today.

host: james pindell, joining us this morning. you can join the conversation. for democrats, 202-737-0001. for republicans, 202-737-0002. for independents, 202-628-0205. if you live in new hampshire, 202-628-0184. what about the other candidates? we mentioned that there is a race shaping up for two, three, four, but possibly even lower down. who else is even in play right now? duking rich? rick perry? guest: following the iowa caucuses there was a lot of conversation about what this meant for rick santorum. would he be able to come in here with a full head of steam and become the obvious anti-mitt romney candidate?

in large part, it is not happening because of bricks and form and the demographics of the new hampshire primary electorate, which is not like iowa in that case. also, newt gingrich has not gone away. he has a strong campaign, even though it is a fairly new organization. he is polling pretty well and getting good crowds. rick perry, wanting to get to south carolina, kind of has a flat line campaign. in our last poll, he was just at 1%. a former louisiana governor, buddy roemer, who is not qualify for these debates, is pulling ahead of rick perry at 3%. you have a number of these candidates who are down on the ballot. there will still be a lot of competition and questions, even

though it may not be as consequential. host: let's get to the phones. steve, chicago, good morning. caller: good morning. how are you? host: good, go ahead. caller: i am from chicago and really pulling for ron paul. i am a liberal. my whole family is liberal. i found out this morning that new hampshire's model is live free or die. that sounds great. i hope that everyone votes for ron paul. guest: in terms of the early primary states, wanting to take the five or four, this is probably the one say -- one state where he is the strongest. in terms of new hampshire, he has put his foot down. he has consistently been in second place over the last month. he will have a very good showing

here, we expect, later tonight. host: what about the role that money is playing in the campaign? there is a story today about a las vegas billionaire who has pumped $5 billion into a group backing up newt gingrich. host: there is a story in "the new york times," today, showing the court impact of the supreme court's decision, giving more free reagan. there is a last minute injection of cash by mr. adelson.

saying that that underscores how last year's landmark supreme court ruling has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence a race. james, how is money playing into what candidates can do in new hampshire? guest: it has not played a significant role. we are in almost uncharted territory. it was first introduced after watergate. we are almost to the situation where any campaign finance rules do not exist. as i mentioned before, buddy roemer. when it comes to this primary process, it is important to note that no one drops out because they lose particular states. they drop out because the

campaign is broke. following the citizens united campaign decision, that sort of changes the rules. because of donations, like this $5 million coming in, he can continue to stay in the race. similar to jon huntsman. the hampshire is the only question -- the only state where we have seen a superpac , in that was largely funded by his father. candidates in the past, typically, need to perform well enough. they tend to not take president's down the field. but if the situation is that if you can fund a superpac, you may

be able to stay in the game. the political impact of that on this particular election, we had a large west. if jon huntsman can stay in this race and can convince one person put him in this race, you will have all of these other candidates on the ballot. iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and possibly the nomination. host: brian, iowa. caller: i would like to make several comments and have this fellow respond to them. i think that in large part, the national media elects our elected officials.

i do not think that it has a lot to do with the ballot. secondly, and i understand that this is what i have heard, that most of the election will cost about $1 billion. who would spend $1 billion to acquire a $400,000 per year job? and the broadcast airwaves, the spectrum, is not owned by nbc, cbs, and abc, they are owned by american taxpayers. part of the reason they need all this money is to run these television ads. why should these ads not be free? let's take the money out of this rat hole. i would like to hear your observation, sir. guest: in terms of the national media dictating who our

elections are about, that is the beauty of these systems in iowa and new hampshire. you have national figures coming in, able to raise much more. they come into these states and there is magic. spontaneous moments where you have to personally connect with voters that have to sign you up. absolutely, in a national primary system, the media would dictate who is up and down. money would have a humongous factor in terms of who could run the campaign ads. we will basically have that, starting later this week, where the candidates will begin to run in south carolina, which is a bigger state. florida, and much more expensive state. -- florida, a much more

expensive state. we are pretty white in terms of diversity, up here. but there is a very empowered electorate here, people that asked tough questions and are very informed. we see that situation in iowa. what was the second point? do you remember? guest: -- host: you addressed the largest part of it. let's check the twitter. guest: we did. well, let's be fair. there are 30 republican candidates on the ballot. it takes $1,000 to get on the ballot. or you can go around and get petitions.

open in the process. at wmur, and new hampshire media in general, we take this sick -- process very seriously. there are very minimal threshold for coverage. basically, if you do not campaign in this state, and if you are even covered -- we are basically the only state television station, so we will cover you. we get -- give a significant amount of coverage to candidates you may not have heard of as much around the country. in new hampshire, we generally cover every candidate they make.

go the next call that we have lined up to speak with us. tim, good morning. caller: jon huntsman is willing to start world war iii by attacking iran, which is very scary, as our ships are headed to the gulf. ron paul is the only one who is standing against the war for israel agenda. americans should take a good look at it, unless they want to send their sons and daughters to war for iran. or for israel, because they are pandering to the neocons. newt gingrich, with his rabid, neo conservative jewish donor in las vegas, he wants war as well. he is probably the one responsible for saying that the

peloponnesus do not exist. go to ushighdebt.com for more. host: how much has foreign relations and foreign policy experience, and goals, shape this race? guest: it is a race that has been largely shaped by two things. the economy and jobs. 5.2%. the general mood that we try for, in this country, who do you think is best on the economy and jobs? from the republican perspective, these are primary voters that we are talking about this morning. who is best to be barack obama? foreign-policy has been a major subplot that you here in town hall meeting after town hall

meeting, house party after house party. and what to do with the iranian perceived nuclear buildup? it has been constantly talked about. the ron paul position on iran is one thing that separates them from the rest of the field. it has been controversial, as you have seen. host: our guest, in manchester, new hampshire, james pindell, on his website you confine his analysis, news, and commentary on what is happening in new hampshire. james pindell has been the political director since august 2010. he has also worked for "the boston globe," and "the indianapolis star." lucy, tennessee. welcome.

caller: thank you for having me on, c-span. i will be voting for president obama. why let someone to put us in there who has already gotten us in a mess in the first place. [unintelligible] host: is there a republican that you would like to see when the primaries? someone that you think that president obama can beat them like guest: the he can be the mall -- caller: he can be the mall. they all speak the same. -- he can beat them all. they all speak the same. guest: i am glad that c-span this year for another primary. you did such excellent coverage, and i think you for that. after everyone leaves on

wednesday and thursday, new hampshire remains a presidential swing state. this is one of the dozen or 13 states that you even see barack obama or the chicago headquarters even talking about. in fact, barack obama has more campaign offices in this state, 7, then all of the presidential candidates competing combined. he has 28 staffers here. after this primary moves on to other states, this will still be a hotly contested states when it comes to the general election. host: clinton, republican, good morning. caller: i love c-span. it is probably the only fair and balanced news out there. one of the things when you look at elections that they're able to bring in, more than just the party, is capturing that

independent vote. when we look at obama and the promises that he made and how things have come out, the only candidate that can beat him is ron paul. ron paul is the only one out of the republicans and obama that stands for habeas corpus, one of the things that obama campaigned on. he said that he would restore habeas corpus, but he has weakened it even further by recently citing the defense authorization act. i would like your views on that. how come there has been no media coverage at all of the fact that the advertisement that they attributed to a ron paul supporter was basically somewhat pejorative towards john huntsman and his adopted daughter, but it was actually created by the john huntsman campaign in an attempt to create that media coverage for ron paul.

it was produced and existed only on the jon huntsman website, showing that it was an act of treachery. i am curious, why is the media talking about habeas corpus? why is ron paul the only one willing to defend america's rights in a fair trial? what about jon huntsman and his pursuit of active treasury in attempting to influence the views of the american public? guest: there is this unique space that ron paul has been carving out in american politics. there may have been a number of new hampshire political events. staking out how different he is from republicans and democrats, basically that is where this goes in terms of a third party

conversation. if ron paul is unable to win, what do you do with these passionate supporters who feel they have no home in republican or democratic parties? you can see the body language in the conversation between mitt romney, who looks to be the nominee, though we do not know where that will go, and on the park of ron paul -- it seems like they are teaming up. as far as the ron paul jon huntsman dynamic, that is one thing to watch tonight. while the republican side on the right in new hampshire seems to be making a choice between mitt romney, rick santorum, and newt gingrich, there is another battle for 40% of voters today that is likely to be independent, and going ahead in

has been under explored, but is very important. host: what about this video and this story, where the ron paul campaign called this anti- manchurian candidate disgusting? what have you heard about where this video came from? guest: i have not read a lot about it. primary week, there is often something that does not get a lot of coverage or impact. there is always a much happening

in this state. my sense is that if it pops up again, and it may not, given the coverage that occurred, it happened in the 10 days after new hampshire and south carolina. as for those particular details, i am not well versed enough to be on national television, talking about it. host of this story from a couple of days ago does not attribute ultimately to any campaign, simply an individual that put it up. the caller things that came from john huntsman itself, we need to make that clear, that that is a new story. guest: that is my understanding. host: good morning. caller: you just said something that i wanted to talk about. that the new hampshire republican right is for romney,

santorum, and gingrich? you have got to be kidding me. this political campaign seems to be about the economy. and yet i do not know, can you name one significant cuts that mitt romney is going to do? none of these guys are offering cuts, except for ron paul, $1 trillion. all these guys want to disband tsa. they want to expand the wars. they want to expand the police state. every single one of the republicans, except for ron paul, is for the bailout. none of them are coming out that much against the federal reserve. newt gingrich is touching the corners, but nothing about the

federal reserve. i just saw mitt romney says he wants to give more money to the international monetary fund. that is our money. what right does he have to give our money to this international thing? they are all for higher inflation. they are taking our civil liberties. jon huntsman said he was for the national defense authorization act, which is totally taking our civil liberties away. host: let's get a response from james pindell, who has been watching this unfold in new hampshire. guest: ron paul did have the second most support among republicans. the growth for ron paul will have to be among independents. that is where we have seen that interplay. in terms of the other republican candidates, i believe they have all released plans the telling

that. a lot of them are looking at entitlements. rick santorum is looking at entitlements. none of them have increased paul ryan's plan to do that. mitt romney has talked about defense with his 59-point plan. i do not think any of them have come close to ron paul's plan to cut $1 trillion from the federal deficit in the first year. host: wmur tv conducted a poll, and there was some change in the numbers in the couple of days of time. ron paul fell by about 3%. there were some folks who gained ground. rick santorum and jon huntsman gained four to five percentage

points. you stopped polling on the eighth. what did you learn from some of those changes? guest: in all polling -- i know your next guest has some different numbers. the lead of mitt romney has not collapsed more. traditionally, when folks come into new hampshire with a large leads, that shrinks. one example, 1980. ronald reagan came into the state with a 49-point lead into the final week of the new hampshire primary. jimmy carter had a 29-point lead over ted kennedy. that lead collapsed in the last week of the primary, down to a 10-point lead. one thing that has been very surprising -- mitt romney's lead

not collapse more, especially as the focus has been turned on to him, as his opponents see that this may be the last chance to stop him. of course, the other surprising thing is rick santorum was not able to coalesce conservatives behind his campaign. i think it is something similar to what we saw with mike huckabee if you years ago. they basically had the same amount of bounced from 3% to -- of bounce from 3% to 11%. obviously, jon huntsman coming on late. he is really peaking now. host: dayton, ohio, on the line for independents. caller: here is my objection. should the pundit class, like

msnbc -- most of them are the 1%. i go back and forth between c- span and msnbc in the morning. of course, they did not have ron paul on. last night, i watched msnbc from 4:00 until 10:00 last night. i do not support ron paul's stances on domestic issues. clearly, he runs through all independents, republicans, and democrats. chris matthews called ron paul -- the only thing he said about ron paul, because somebody brought him up, was that he was unelectable. they should just give us the

bloody information. they should not try to determine who we are going to vote for. guest: i hate to go back to this point, but that is the beauty of the new hampshire primary. chris matthews does not have a vote. he is another moist in the national media. you do not have to rely on his voice. you can't interact with these candidates -- you can interact with these candidates yourselfs. we have a chance to size them up and talk to them directly and get information from them directly. host: even though you have talked about the ability of voters in new hampshire to have the one-on-one contact and hear from the candidates themselves, the national media descends on your state. there is some information in the papers today. i will grab this one in "the washington post" that shows a

gaggle of reporters waiting to talk to presidential candidate jon huntsman. you can see them huddled there. kitchen.n a bakery's they're trying not to get in the wake of the candidate. you are flooded with the media. how does that change the flavor of the debate that happens there? what is it like? guest: yeah, this week is a circus. the most magical week in american politics, between iowa and new hampshire. there is so much movement. some candidates drop out. others change their positions. there's a lot of jockeying going on. there's been this flood of media that has developed. i cherish the early moments in the campaign when you can ride in the car with the candidate and drive around the state.

i believe ron paul had to cancel a breakfast event yesterday in manchester because of the throng of media. rick santorum is having problems holding some of his events. he is having to do them in parking lots because of all the interest. clearly, these candidates want the interest. clearly, they want to be covered. the only way for south carolina voters to have any understanding of what is happening is either by seeing rick perry or by watching some of these news shows. clearly, they gain money from people that may be in dayton, like yourself. you get a better understanding of where these candidates are. there is a whole other element when all the media comes to town. it is harder for these candidates to talk directly to the people. the smarter campaigns are the ones that can manage that a bit. for example, mitt romney has still been able to talk to voters directly. host: james pindell, political

director of wmur tv in new hampshire. welcome, donald. caller: i just have a couple of comments. as far as these wars, i think the only way we will keep out of these is to bring back the draft. i am a pretty strong democrat. i would vote for ron paul. given his age, i think this is his last try, so i think he ought to run as an independent. guest: well, the third party option is something that he gets asked about a lot. he has not closed the door on that. some people say that he is laying the groundwork for his son, rand paul, who has been on the trail with him in iowa and in new hampshire.

he has obviously announced that he will not run for reelection to the house. he will try to reshape the republican party. i do not see any scenario -- that no one drops out because they lose, but because they are broke. ron paul raises money week after week. he will probably be in this race until the convention in tampa. host: donald said he was a democrat and is willing to cross over and support ron paul. james pindell, you mentioned earlier that a big question will be, can ron paul get some of these independent voters to go his way? what are you looking at as far as how influential these undeclared or undecided voters will be today? guest: two things. they are a group that makes up their mind at the very last minute. they are totally up for grabs. in that sense, ron paul and any

candidate really wants to find a way to get some of these independent voters. weto the caller's point, talked about foreign policy a bit earlier. it is the concept of a nuclear iran. it is how we deal with the challenge of china. is it a friend or a foe? how do we deal with russia? how do we deal with the european debt crisis? that is the type of foreign policy conversation we're having. you could throw in afghanistan, where jon huntsman and ron paul basically have the same position on that. future wars, that's not a conversation we've been hearing a lot independents lot talking about. they are more concerned about the economic condition. our polling has shown that. host: betty, a republican in pennsylvania. good morning. caller: good morning and thank

you. i was trying to save my call for later in the game, but i do want to speak out to jon huntsman. they barely let him on the stage in the beginning. his first comment at the start of all of this -- i thought, wow, i like the fact that his sons are participating in the navy. teddy roosevelt had the right idea. walk softly and carry a big stick. my husband served as a pow. i am not personally a military person. i just think there's a lot of danger in our world today. i feel mr huntsman is a worldly person. i feel he is an american. please look at his record and put him in the white house. thank you. bye. guest: thank you to your family for your service, and obviously,

you sacrifice, as well. in terms upper jon huntsman, -- in terms of jon huntsman, he spent a lot of money starting off. they have had some financial problems. he is pretty much under the radar. until last week, i have been very down on jon huntsman's campaign in new hampshire, even though this is a state where he says he is putting all of his eggs in the basket. this never caught on. it was always in the seven to nine-point area. he never seemed to have much momentum. in new hampshire, strategists say it is like catching lightning in a bottle. he is catching lightning in a bottle. he is picking the right time for people to tune in. host: who could be a deal breaker today? guest: i think new hampshire

will decide the makeup of this race going forward, or what kind of presidential nomination process we are going to have. if one person emerges to be a clear alternative to mitt romney -- for example, gets second place within single digits of mitt romney, or maybe 10 points away from mitt romney with mitt romney under 40%, we could have a very fascinating and long process. given the way the republicans changed their primary process, which we do not have to get into -- but the most likely scenario will be mitt romney on top. he may even under perform a little bit. maybe the national republican fund-raisers are not too impressed. if we have a lot of candidates in the second through five bunch, and none of them drop

out, and they all go to south carolina, then mitt romney does not have to get 40% or 50% of the vote. he just has to have more than everybody else but if that's the situation, i think it will be difficult for anyone to stop mitt romney from the in the nominee. host: new york, independent line. caller: thank you, c-span, for be in the organization you are. i am a big ron paul supporter but i would like to discuss what everybody calls ron paul's achilles' heel. we already overthrew iran. we put in a dictator. the united states was dictators. they are easy to control. when are we going to stop the cycle of men as we are trapped

in? how propagandized are the american people? host: jim, you think this is ron paul's achilles' heel. do you think it is enough to sway voters? caller: i do not consider it his achilles' heel. with the attention he gets from the mainstream media and the other candidates -- they're definitely going to play to the military industrial complex and we're going to be stuck in the cycle of madness. ron paul has the most sane foreign-policy, gyet a sane foreign policy is like an insane idea these days. how did we get to this? host: let's hear from james pindell. guest: the biggest achilles' heel from ron paul -- they do not think he can beat barack obama. they're willing to compromise on

not finding the perfect candidate. the perfect candidate has not emerged for many of these republican voters. they do want to beat barack obama. there is no question about that. he is viewed fairly or unfairly as a candidate who cannot build a coalition to get to 51% or 270 electoral votes. you may disagree with that, but i think that is the biggest perception problem he has. when i talk to ron paul's strategists in new hampshire, they knew this was his biggest problem. they've been trying to make him more of a mainstream candidate. they've worked very hard at that in new hampshire. they knew that was his biggest problem. host: james pindell is the political director at wmur tv in manchester, new hampshire. thank you so much. guest: i think you will be

simulcasting our coverage tomorrow. host: thank you, james pindell. coming up, we will talk to david paleologos. first, let's go back to our local polling place in manchester, new hampshire and check in there. clip: the secretary of state is expecting a 42% voter turnout. we are at ward 4. voters have been coming in since 6:00 a.m. this morning. roger is one of them. who did you vote for? clip: some fellow from texas. why did you choose him? clip: he delivered his message with clarity. i have a lot of respect for him. clip: when did you decide to vote for ron paul? clip: a few months ago.

his lawyers were good -- his fliers were good. i like his approach. i going to do this. he had a definite purpose -- states a purpose. clip: what have you been paying attention to leading up to today's primary? debates? town halls? clip: i read the newspaper. i read political magazines. i read everybody's fliers. i listened to them on tv. clip: what about the debates? clip: not at all. i do not like people cutting other people down. i do not go for that. that is not a way to make your position. clip: what about the so-called front-runner in new hampshire?

the former massachusetts governor, mitt romney. clip: i think he is working hard. i do not know noabout mitt. i think there are some strikes against him. clip: what about jon huntsman? he has spent a lot of time in this state? clip: i went to listen to him about two months ago in concord. a very straightforward, honest, dedicated politician. clip: but you still decided not to vote for him? clip: i did not think he had the swell of the public to support him. clip: ron paul but you ron does? clip: i think he has more. clip: what about the former speaker, new hampshinewt gingri.

his two-faced. clip: he was the speaker of the house. clip: and when he was there, he did a lot to impede the progress of the president. host: we are looking at ward 4 in manchester, new hampshire, where voters are choosing their candidate for president in the republican party and the democratic party. the republican primary getting a lot of attention today. c-span is in new hampshire through the day and night tonight but we will be broadcasting from wmur tv's primary night coverage. we will hear from mitt romney, newt gingrich, and others as they make their speeches and talk to supporters tonight. find out more of the schedule at c-span.org. joining us now is david paleologos, suffolk university pollster. good morning.

thank you for being with us. guest: good morning. host: who are you polling? how do you screamed likely voters -- you screen likely voters? guest: census-based demographics, geography, age, and so one. they have to pass the screening meansone which basically -- how likely they are to vote in the upcoming election. unless they say "very likely," we screen them out. we are only interested in getting the people most likely to vote. host: why do you find that most effective? guest: it varies from year to

year. in 2008, you had two primaries and you had independents jumping in and out of the from primaries. for example, on a monday night in 2008, you could have a person voting for john mccain in the republican party. on thursday, when the democratic race heated up, you could have the same person jumping in and voting for hillary clinton. in that case, a loose screen was appropriate. this time, we opted for a tighter screen. host: suffolk university has a new poll out this morning. let's take a look at that. mitt romney, 37%. ron paul, 18%. jon huntsman, 16%.

santorum, 11%. what are you reading from those numbers? guest: it is an incredible margin for mitt romney. we had him sliding in the overnight from 43% down to 33% and now back up to 37%. he had a great overnight, as did jon huntsman, who exceeded ron paul. because we maintain the two-day tracking, the rolling average, ron paul is still in second place by 2% and jon huntsman in third place. the idea is to pick up tracking and momentum. tos a very short script establish the criteria and screen the responder and then to ask the important ballot test

question. you hope it carries out. we opted to poll right up until last night because there was a the day's schedule because c- span.org there was a debate -- until last night because there was a debate schedule. we have to be in the field sunday and monday with 250 completes. we think the debates drove some good response for jon huntsman and mitt romney. host: ron paul, 18%. huntsman, 16%. very close between the two of them. the margin of error is 4.4

percent signed. guest: it's going to be very close and it will come down to voter i.d. has momentum. there is no question about that from last night -- hajon huntsman has momentum. there's no question about that. can he harvest them and bring them to mark it? i do not know if he is logistically set up to do that. ron paul, having run before, has the infrastructure to bring out his support. one of the things we look at ish ron paul's support region. the north part of new hampshire and the central part of new hampshire have been very favorable to him. when you're getting the returns tonight, look at the northern counties in western counties that border in vermont.

-- that border vermont. ron paul is doing very well. even in some communities, he will lead mitt romney in the early returns. in the southern counties, mitt romney should have margins of 25% or 30%, which, when taken in total, will provide the 15 to 20-point margin. ron paul's other core demographic is younger voters, where he has traditionally done well, and even in new hampshire is doing well. host: david paleologos, suffolk university pollster. let's look briefly at "the washington post" breakdown at the political geography of new hampshire. it ties in directly to what you're talking about. it shows where the candidates are excelling. it talks about how there is an

independent se block where ron paul's message is taking hold. rick santorum has been able to make some ground in the blue- collar workers and catholic conservatives. it calls jon huntsman the everywhere man. he has gained some weight traction. it's not clear whether it will be enough. mitt romney, it says, is focused on the mccain terrain. it calls rick perry the nowhere man. he decided to skip new hampshire and take his campaign on the road to south carolina. guest: the jon huntsman numbers are interesting. he is everywhere, except when you break them down by party affiliation. this may be why he does not get to second place, and maybe even scrambles into third place. although, our momentum shows he is doing very well, at least

overnight. the problem with jon huntsman's campaign, he polled 23%, which is a big number among independents, but only 9% among registered republicans. registered republicans will make up a larger share of tonight's vote. the race going forward -- florida, for example, has a closed primary. there are no independents eligible to vote. only registered republicans can vote. jon huntsman is showing that much of a discrepancy between parties. he may run into problems in states like florida with closed primaries. host: we will talk more about your polling results of independents. from, let's talk to wanda st. louis on the line for democrats. good morning. caller: good morning. my concern is that none of the

presidential candidates are speaking about taxing the wealthy. they want to tax the social security, the disabled, the elderly, and the military that are coming back that will be wounded and probably receiving social security, but none of them want to tax the wealthy, which is paying 1% versus the lower class and middle-class. guest: it is an excellent point, but keep in mind who they're playing to. the republican primary voter is a different profile than the general election voters. in the republican party, you are looking at tea party activists and you are also looking at self-labeled conservatives and moderates, some of whom are in

that bracket. to differentiate themselves, these candidates are absolutely not attacking to the middle. if anything, the candidates are going to the right of each other with the strategy that they can capture pockets of republican conservative support. then, obviously, the strategy they're after is to tack that to the middle. host: if you are a new hampshire resident, you can join the conversation. let's run through the rest of the numbers. again, that new hampshire number. ray on the line for republicans. good morning, ray. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call.

i have a question about how you do your polling. more people are getting rid of their home phones and going to sell phones -- to cell phones. i guess you just call landline phone. how do you do your polling? do you go out and stop people in the streets? how do you do this? host: have you been getting calls from campaigns? a lot of voters talk about how they get a lot of calls around dinnertime on their land line phones. do you get that on your cell phone? caller: i do not. guest: let me clarify a couple of things. phones,do include cellphon

in addition to land mines. it is a little bit more expensive. there's a misnomer that just because you call cellphones, your poll is more accurate. what we do is we purchased the actual cell phone only extensions and put those responded -- age, gender, demographics. we supplement the calling program with the lamb lnd line. there are times when we think we will call a cell-only and they will say, "call me back on my land line." the key is the allocation and to make sure the result matches the sample frame that you set up. the sample frame is set up on

historical trends and the conditions of the election in terms of whether or not you are weighing other things, if you are polling a state that might have a contested primary. it's a little bit more complicated than that, but we do call cell phones. we think it adds a valuable component, at least going forward in the general election. i do not think it will matter too much in the republican primary, based on the demographics of the republican primary likely voter. in the general election, it will. there was a pew study that suggested a non-cell phone sca samples to republicans by 4% to 5%. i think that is something we all need to take a look at, even if there's an increased cost. host: arizona, judy, republican.

caller: i would like to make a comment. the gentleman you have speaking now was stating that on the demographics that ron paul voters ranged in age from 18 to 30's. could this be the reason that most of them do not realize it takes more than just stating what you are going to do when you get into the white house? they do not realize that while mr. paul has some excellent ideas and over 20 years in congress, the man has accomplished nothing. guest: an 18-year-old vote is as good as my boat or your boat or anyone's vote. state farm those opinions based on the information they receive,

that's the process. that's america. it's up to the other candidates to convince the 18-year-old of what you just articulated. the important piece is that not all of the votes are 18 to 34, but a chunk of them are in that demographic. that is also the demographics that helped barack obama. i would not discount the 18 to 34 demographic in terms of their wisdom. one could say that older voters have a better perspective. i understand what you are saying. i agree with it. that's probably why mitt romney is doing so well in new hampshire older -- in new hampshire. older voters have seen good and bad economies. perhaps mitt romney is doing so well because they are linking romney with the look back period. they see him as a dove tail

between the leadership in solving economic problems. host: david paleologos, suffolk university pollster, and also the director of the political research center. let's look at a poll checking in with independents. romney at 34%. huntsman, 26%. ron paul, 22%. santorum, 6%. gingrich, 3%. david paleologos, tell us more about it. guest: it's an interesting dynamic. mitt romney led independents on january 1 by 23 points. so much has happened, especially with jon huntsman and how late he has rallied. he is really relying on independents or what new hampshire folks call undeclared voters. in terms of a successful model to win, romney only needs to

break even, which he is doing and then some among independents. where he is laying the margin out is in the registered republican demographics, as well as others, like older voters and women voters. host: kansas city, kansas. mike, democrat. good morning. caller: good morning to you. with all the money that's been spent towards ron paul -- you might agree with him, like him, or hate him. between mitt romney, the guy is the biggest flip flop i have ever seen. the republican party used to stand on the supporting flip- flop first bibelots my mind. i am glad that a lot of americans are waking up. regardless of how you feel about ron paul, he does not waver. host: mike, you called in as a

democrat. are you willing to cross party lines and vote for him? caller: absolutely. you see this from the calls that are coming in. more and more people are waking up to ron paul. i understand how people feel about ron paul. he is not the perfect candidate. you'll never find the perfect candidate. he never wavers. he stands by the constitution. he has my vote. thank you. host: david paleologos -- guest: i would like to ask him a question. i was one to ask him if ron paul was a third-party candidate and it was barack obama, mitt romney, and ron paul, whether he would still feel the same way, or whether he would vote for barack obama. host: i'm sorry we lost him before you could ask him that. tell us why you think that is significant. how does that change the race? guest: the idea of a third-party

candidate is very important. it will become a bigger issue as we get into the spring and summer. being in massachusetts, we had a very similar situation with barack obama with the governor -- with governor patrick. a landslide win, african- american, hope and change, great support from younger voters. three years into his administration, similar to barack obama, governor patrick had the same kind of numbers barack obama now has. load job performance, low favorability. with a third-party candidate on the ballot, the democrat -- patrick prevailed. he won the reelection easily by six or seven points, despite only getting 49% of the votes.

maybe not for today's discussion, but i think what the caller was touching upon was the kind of loyalty to ron paul is something that may transcend the republican primary. you may see a candidate emerged as a third-party candidate, which i think would help barack obama. host: david paleologos, how significant our crossover votes? those who would cross over -- i will read you an e-mail from ben in ohio. host: how much do you see that happening? guest: when barack obama and hillary clinton seemed like an

analyst primary in 2008, in the later primaries, the opposite happened. depending on the state and the state's rules, when it was apparent barack obama was going to win, you have the meddling on the other side. we saw that in several states. it does happen. we would like to think people would stay true to their core beliefs and vote on the primary that is the primary of their political philosophy. certainly, there are practitioners in terms of political tactics. that happens. it may be five% to 8% of the votes, but we saw it a lot in 2010, as well. host: republican in uniontown, pennsylvania. welcome. caller: i just wanted to make

one more endorsement of congress meant ron paul. based on his voting record, i feel like he is the most solid candidate we have. host: let's throw david paleologos's question to you. if he does not make it to the primary but runs as a third- party candidate, would you vote for him? caller: i think i would. i think i would draw my republicans that is, as well, to vote for him. for over 30 years, he's the only one who has been speaking out about the military-industrial complex and everything and the federal reserve issues we need to deal with. host: would you have any concerns about being a spoiler? caller: i just feel like more and more people are waking up and looking for people running

on principle, running on values, rather than running on this party or that party. host: david paleologos. guest: it is fascinating. that is why i love this so much. the attitudes, the changing attitudes. there are some candidates that have a following. ron paul certainly has a following. there are conversations happening right now in virginia or in d.c. trying to deal with this whole dynamic, especially from the republican point of view. a ron paul candidacy could have an effect in one of the seven or eight key states in the general election, like ohio, florida, or even new hampshire. the intensity for ron paul is a dangerous thing, especially in terms of the infrastructure of the republican party right now.

host: a couple of tweets about this debate. host: there was a question earlier if ron paul was a bonafide republican or not. one of our listeners brought that up. what has happened to the tea party this election? guest: the tea party has not gone away, but it is less of a factor in some states to ban it is in others. for example, in new hampshire, it is less of a factor. being part of the tea party is a little more complicated. it's a little bit more of a cut and dry situation. a perfect example is nevada. tea party mattered in nevada.

suffolk university was the only live polling outfit in the country that picked up sharron angle winning in 2010, and coming out of nowhere, by the way. there were many candidates. what she did was exactly what we are talking about. she captured the imagination and the support of the tea party in nevada such that it propelled her through the nominations. you do not have that dynamic. it's much different in new hampshire than nevada. host: lisa, independent caller. good morning. caller: good morning. i am the person was a fervent obama supporter, but i have been -- i could see going to a third party for buddy roemer. what is this issue you are finding out?

is it the name recognition? is it that he entered into the thing a little late? buddy roemer is somebody that i would go to america's elect and make him my third candidate to go up against the two of them. guest: a couple of nights ago, he had more support than rick perry. that got a little bit of interest, even though it was a difference between 1.7% and 1%. you raise an important point about the third-party dynamic, because third party voters are an accumulation of many other voters. they include people who like the candidates. like yourself, you like buddy roemer. or they feel the third-party candidates are underrepresented

because, unlike in europe, where you have many parties running. we only have mainly two. some people like to pull for the underdog. if they feel like their party will win, and they want to make a statement, they will vote for the third party candidate. it's a little bit complicated in terms of ascertaining it. successful third-party candidates have sort of transcended all of those factors. they have personal appeal. they captured a time that was an anti-democracy feeling. they have accumulated all these subsets of voters to try to piece together the campaign. host: here is what jim says on twitter. guest: i agree. i agree 100%. the frustrating part -- at

suffolk university, we tried to get to the matters that matter and drill down. unfortunately, as you know, the horse race results and the ballot test results -- the crazy circle we are in. it is the issues that are provocative, that gets people to thinking. at suffolk, students are encouraged to drill down and get to the core issues. host: david paleologos, suffolk university pollster. he directs the school's political research center. he has worked since 2002 in partnership with whdh 7 news. that is nbc-tv boston, and foxes miami, conducting statewide polls in massachusetts and elsewhere. let's look at some demographics

and breakdown information of new hampshire. get a profile of the state freed 1.3 million people. the population change has been a bond of 6.5% in the last 10 years. 13.5% are 65 and over. the new hampshire median age in 2009 was just over 40. the national median age in 2009 was 36. we're getting those numbers from the u.s. census bureau. guest: significant. i'm glad you put that up. the difference does not look bigger between the national average and the 41%. new hampshire is fourth in terms of median age in all of the states. it is technically an older state by that standard.

as you look at that list from the census 2010, six of the top 10 states ranked by median age are from the northeast. host: why do you think that is significant when it comes to voting? guest: it's really important in terms of the republican primary. traditionally, it's the institutional voter is the most reliable voter -- they are the older voters. they are the people who watch more tv, read more policy, with the advent of social media, and now part of that, research more candidates, watch c-span and other programs, and basically are more informed than the more middle age or younger voter that might be more emotional for a candidate or a policy. in the case of middle-age folks, they did not have enough time because of whatever is going on in their lives, raising kids, working, and have a

limited attention span for political debates candidates, debates, researching issues. the older voters is important. especially in new hampshire given the median age statistics. host: matt, a democrat in virginia. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am a registered democrat only because my state requires me to register to even vote in my general election. i wanted to vote for john kerry a few years ago and i saw them throw my vote into the trash can because i was not registered. i made sure i got register the next time voting for obama. obama has not done exactly what he said he was going to do. he has gone quite the opposite in some cases. i am one of these voters that will cross over. it is interesting that some of these republican pundits and pollsters -- i'm not sure exactly sureun-- sure unsite of

a term you want to use. spoiler -- before you address that, the other day, they're coming up with this facts, and people are asking questions about things like the defense authorization act. if you run mitt romney, he is going to lose to obama. that just seems plain and simple. he is basically the same candidate. guest: ok. let me address both of those. in terms of the spoiler issue, that is not personal opinion. my job is to read the numbers, both pre-election and the exit polling, and determine whether or not a third party candidate share the demographics of the losing candidate.

if there's a correlation between the losing candidate's demographics and the same demographics of the third-party candidate, scientifically, we can conclude that if the third party candidate was not in the race, the losing candidate might a better shot. it might not have changed the margin, but it would have impacted we saw that happen in massachusetts two years ago -- but it would have impact. we saw that happen in massachusetts two years ago. regarding the state's votes and flipping, i think it is very important. in the analysis that i wrote in the huffington post piece, i suggested that in vienna, virginia, and north carolina would most likely slip back to republican -- that virginia,

north carolina would slip back to republican, based on the economy and based on the predisposed bias of those states. living in virginia, if you go back 10 elections, virginia, indiana, and north carolina have voted republican eight of the last 10 times, or nine of the last 10 times. virginia being one of them. based on the models that we are developing, those three states will probably fly back to republican, unless something unusual happens in the next six to eight months, either in terms of the economy or the republican nominee. host: daniel in connecticut, republican, you are next. go ahead. caller: i support ron paul because he does represent the values that i hold as a christian. i want to tell other ron paul supporters that they should vote

for him no matter what, even if the polls suggest that he might not win in the general election. they still need to vote for him. if he gets enough done, we can change the republican platform to be closer to the values that the constitution sets forth, which is what ron paul stands for candidate and no for does. i wanted to ask your guest if he uses charged questions, like all other pollsters do, like, considering mitt romney is already leading, who the want to win, instead of who you want to win? they say, "said his data provide a starting point and a series of screening questions. questions involve voting history and likely voting attention."

that sounds like you're screening people out. thank you. guest: for your. let me -- caller: thank you for your time. guest: i will only screen out a person if they will not be voting on election day. i want students, by the end of the 14-week course, to be able to leave the classroom and go out and poll. the class addresses all of the components of polling. questionnaire design, sample frame, executing a survey, analysis, across tabulation, presentation of results. it is all important. because polling is important, it should be important, not only to me as a pollster, but to all of us. i am not suggesting either that people not vote their heart.

the whole idea of this framework, this political framework, is that everybody does have a vote. ron paul voters, if they believe in their heart they should vote, they should get out and vote for him, and not vote for or against some other candidate based on polls. it is my job to be as accurate as possible. we are not perfect. we get them wrong, too. we have a pretty good track record. it is our responsibility to try to exactly reproduce what the game conditions are on election day. i am not going to allow an open screen of someone who is not a likely voter. i want to be able to test that. i want to test their intensity. there are ways to do that. they can self-identified their intensity. i can tell us when the election day is. they can tell us the name of their polling place. there are statistical ways that we can screen that person out.

it is the pollster's responsibility to determine if this election or another primary is worthy of an open, loose screen, or tight screen. host: let's go to wisconsin. eric joins us on the line for independents. go ahead. caller: i would like to suggest to all the voting people out there to first research, and then see the film, and then see which candidate reflects those ron paul principles. ron -- reflects those principles. i do not understand why he is unelectable when it appears he is surging. host: are you contributing money or spreading the message? what are you doing?