thank you. thank you so much. thank you to the people in this room and to the people all over florida, thank you tonight for this great victory. there are fewer kids tonight than when the race began but three gentleman are serious and able competitors -- your candidates tonight and when the race began. primary contest are not easy and they are not supposed to be. they like to kampf themself with the thought

it compared to a primary does not divide us. when we gather here in 7 months ours will be a united party with a winning ticket for america. he said it i cannot turn this economy around in three years, i will be looking at a one term proposition. we're here to collect. you know the results. it has been 35 months of unemployment above 8%. more americans have lost their

jobs and more foreclosures have occurred been under the administration than any other president in history. in the last 10 days i met with a father who was terrified that this would be the last night his family would be able to sit in the only son his home has no. the seniors of this the so be the best years of their life. i met some hispanics who thought they had to the american dream. the protestant action said "but remember now how we got here 3 did the president actually said "let's remember -- the president actually said let's remember how we got here." leadership is about taking responsibility not making excuses. thomas paine is reported to have said "lead follow, or get out

of the way." mr. president you were elected to lead, you chose to follow, and now it is time for you to get out of the way. [cheers and applause] i stand ready to lead this party and nation. as a man who's spent his life outside washington, i know what is like to start a business and build something from nothing. i know how government kills jobs and how it can help. my leadership helped build businesses from scratch. my leadership helped save the olympics from scandal and get our american athletes a chance to make us all proud.

my leadership cut taxes 19 times and passed over 800 vetoes. we balance the budget every single year. my leadership will and the obamacare and begin a new era of american prosperity. this campaign is about more than replacing a president. it is about saving the soul of america. president obama and i have very different visions of america. president obama once pro- government and to amass

trillions of deficits. i will slow government and cut the spending of government. i will not just freeze the government share on the economy. i will reduce it. without raising taxes, i will finally get america to a balanced budget. president obama's view of a free economy is to send your money to his friends. my vision for a free economy is to return entrepreneurship and the creativity to the american people. [applause] one of the most personal matters of our lives our health care, president obama would turn decision making over to government bureaucrats.

i will repeal it. =[cheers and applause] like his colleagues in the faculty lounge to think they know better, president obama demonizes almost every sector of our economy. i will make america the most attractive place in the world for an entrepreneur yours, job creators. unlike the other people running for president, i know how to do that. president obama orders religious organizations to violate their conscience. i will defend religious liberty

and overturn regulations that trample on our first freedoms. president obama believes that our role in the leader of the world is a thing of the past. he is shrinking our military capacity at the time the world is facing threats. i will insist on the military so powerful nell would ever think of challenging it. -- no one would ever think of challenging it. president obama has adopted a policy of appeasement and apology. i will speak out for those seeking freedom. i will stand shoulder to shoulder with our friends around the world. you see president obama wants to fundamentally transform america and make it something no

one would recognize. i want to restore it the values and principles that made us. i will do it. [our plans protect freedom and opportunity. our blueprint is a constitution of the united states. together we will build an america where hope is a new job for a paycheck, not a faded word on an old bumper sticker. let me be clear. the pack i lay out is not one paid with ever increasing government checks and insurance that government will always be the solution.

if this election is a bidding war for who can promise the most benefits, then i am not your president. you have at present today. if you want to make this election about restoring american greatness, and then i hope you will join us. if you believe the disappointment of the last few years are a detour and not our destiny, then i am asking for your votes. i am asking each of you to remember how special it is to be an american. i want you to remember what it was like to be hopeful and excited about the future and not to drag each new headlines. i want you to remember when you spend more time dreaming about where you would send your children to college. i want you to remember when you are not afraid to look at your entireretirement savings.

remember when the white house represented the best a few you wwere. that america is still out there. we believe in that america. we still believe in the america that is the land of opportunity and a beacon of freedom. we believe in the america that challenge each of us to be better than ourselves. this election let's fight for the america we love. we believe that in america. thank you so much. god bless the united states of america. thank you. thank you. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012]

badthank you. thank you guys. we've made such wonderflul friends here. thank you. turn around. all the way back in the very

back. thank you guys. thank you.

>> and newt gingrich delivers the polls and florida. he finished second. he spoke for a little more than 15 minutes to supporters in

orlando. ♪ ♪ [playing "only in america" by brooks and dunn] >> thank you. i want to starts with bill mccollum who has done so much to help us. he has been tremendous. i also want to be those who cochaired statewide. we are very grateful to all of

you. i also want to introduce my daughter kathy and her husband paul. i am very proud. she did a whole series upper spanish language meetings helping is in the miami area and reaching out. jackie hasand jimmy are the mother and father of by two major debate coaches. it is great to have them here. i want to think floridians. everyone here has been so positive. we thank all of you for the hospitality and kindness. we think the half million floridians who voted for us.

florida did something important. it is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader newt gingrich and the massachusetts moderate. the voters of florida really made that clear. you will notice the number of votes are holding up a sign with 46 states to go. this is for the elite media. the same people who said i was gone after iowa one now be back sang what is he going to do? -- are now going to be back say what is he going to do that we are going to go to every place and we will win.

we will be in tampa as the nominee in august. >> [chanting "newt newt"] >> you might ask how can that be true? i will give you the answer. it was stated at a historic moment in 1863 in dedicating our first national cemetery with the president of the united states abraham lincoln said we have government of the people by the people for the people. we will have people power defeat money power in the next six months. how are we going to do that?

the same way we can back in june and july. we are head and the gallup poll gala poll with no money. if you have solutions and are positive and can communicate and a history of doing something the combination begins to reach the american people. this is the most important election of your lifetime. if barack obama gets reelected it will be a disaster for the united states of america. if he can have a record this bad comments deficits this bad policies this bad and still get reelected, you cannot imagine how radical he will be in a second term.

putting together a people's campaign not a republican or establishment campaign or a wall street campaign, and saying to every american of every background and every ethnic group and community we have a better future for you and your family. it is the future of jobs, lower gasoline prices, a balanced budget. it is the feature of a smaller washington. -- future of a smaller washington. we will imposes on both parties. let's talk about the power of ideas.

in 1980 i was honored to put the first set of it. the house and senate came together with president reagan. it is a courageous decision by reagan. he did not have to run as part of a team. he did something nobody did before. he picked up 33 house seats. in 1994, we have 350 candidates to come and to be part of a contract with america to stand on the capitol steps. we offered a positive program. we have the largest one party increase in american history 9 million additional americans voted for a positive vision. we kept our word. every item was voted on in the first 93 days.

there is a core question in the primaries and elections. if you are comfortable with the way america is decaying, and then we do not have to change much. we can manage the decay. if you think that is a terrible thing to do to your children and grandchildren and your country and if you are prepared to do what it takes to change the congress bureaucracy judges policies so the entire system get on the right track some american can give us a more prosperous future, and this is how big the gap is. there are folks in both parties that are managing the decade. we believe it is cheating our

grandchildren to not insist on fundamental change even if the establishment of the stock like. -- establishment does not like it. in the next few days we will develop the equivalent of contracts for 1994. this of a personal one between me and you. i am asking you to make me president. it will come in two parts. part one is conditional. it requires your help. part to i can do if i win the election -- two i can do if i win the election. part one only works if we run a team campaign. that means we have to replace bill nelson with a conservative.

if you help us in addition to winning the presidency we elect a puba republican senate and house, i'll ask them to stay in office. i will ask them to immediately pass the repeal of obamacare. i will ask them to immediately pass the repeal of the dodd/frank bill which is killing housing and small- business and independent banks. i will ask them to pass the repeal of sarbanes oxley which is crippling american benefits with no net profits. my goal is to have all three bills sitting there waiting so

the minute i am sworn in i can sign all three and we're off to a pretty good opening morning. those three promises are conditional. we have to win the senate by a big enough margin to manage it. help me do that. let me tell you some things. we will put this together in a way you will be able to see in writing. there are a series of executive orders that i can issue that congress cannot stop as long as they are within the law. the first executive order will abolish all of the white house is oursczars as of that moment. we will issue immediately and it said he did order -- all this

will happen to hours after the inaugural address ok? nobefore we go to the various balls, we will have a work period. i may not get in as much golf as obama, but i will get in as much job creation. i will tell you up front. i am not going to compete with obama in singing. i am not running for entertainer and chief. i am running for president. i would say to him now you can not seeing your way -- signng our your way past the disaster of your presidency. i forgot your teleprompter. i said to my staff. i am having to bring this.

-- wing this. we are going to sign on that day the authorization for the immediate deployment of the keystone xl pipeline. my message to the people of canada is did not get a deal with the chinese. help is on the way. by january will build the right pipeline -- you will build the right pipeline for the right price. you will see this is what a serious conservative president is light who is old and prepared to change washington despite the screams on both parties. we will on that day sign an executive order that will instruct the state department that day to open the embassy in

jerusalem and recognize israel. about the v two more examples. i will sign the executive order reinstating ronald reagan puzzle master and city embassy. no u.s. money will go to pay for abortion. many of you may have noticed that the obama administration has called war on the catholic church and other religious and a spiritestablishments. on the first day i will sign an executive order repealing every anti-religious act of the obama administration as of that moment.

the reason i'm comfortable telling you all this is i have been is studying what america needs to do. it has been since the fall of 1958 when my dad was stationed. i have been working for what we need to do i believe it is possible to get this country back on track. my commitment is to unleash the spirit of the american people to find new and innovative and positive things to do then seven days a week, to do them relentlessly and without stop to make sure we have fundamentally that america back on the right track. i pledge to each and every one if you if you will reach out across the country and use facebook and twitter and phone

calls, if you will tell all of your friends in the other 46 states that there is a chance to nominate a conservative knows what he is doing here has done it before and has the courage to get it done, i promise you that if i become the president i pledge to you my life, my fortune, and my sacred honor. did this is about america. thank you. god bless you. ♪ [playing "only in america" by brooks and dunn]

[playing "only in america" by brooks and dunn]

[playing "independence day" by martina mcbride]

[playing "all american" by clay walker]

blacks in such campaigning in florida, and ron paul is in the next caucus -- instead of campaigning in florida, ron paul in in the next caucus. >> thank you. badthank you very much. thank you. thank you very much. thank you.

thank you very much. thank you. if the enthusiasm wins an elections, we winw hands down. this is great. this is nice. thank you for coming out. a little while ago i saw governor romney and congratulated him. >> [boo] >> no, i congratulated him. i said i would see him soon in the caucus states. did we have been having a

fantastic trip. not too long ago we were up in maine. it was a fantastic reception. today we had businesses in colorado. they were fantastic. it looks like we have a few hundred here tonight to say the least. 1000 people. now, a few months ago there were 9 candidates. we are down to four. tonight as of statistics that we are in third place when comes to delegate -- i saw statistics that we are in their place when it comes to delegates, and that what really counts.

we will spend our time in the caucus states. if you have an irate tyrants minority you do very well in the caucus states. there is something else that they lend itself to. a few have an energized group of people that are working in a campaign and actually believe in something, you bet it will work in the caucus states. this is what has been so fantastic. i have been doing a little bit of campaigning for re beltsy -- 4 liberty for a long time. this is all very favorable. there is a mess up in washington. they have given us a lousy form policy. they gave us and allows the

budget and recession. a wonderful thing is in the grass roots. people are realizing that the problem is too much government. we need more personal liberties. this is where we are winning the hearts and minds of people. to the numbers are growing. there are many brush fires of freedom being late. we do not even know where they are. it is being translated into great enthusiasm and change. we do not need to have more government. we need to get rid of some of the processes of the government. it done to think it is time we

have a new monetary policy? -- don't you think it is time we have a new monetary policy? all we would have to do is read the constitution. it tells us what exactly we should have. what about a foreign policy? we need a foreign policy. do we need to invent it? we just need to read the constitution. we do not need to be the policemen of the world. very simply we should not engage in any more wars that are not engaged properly.

i have gotten some advice a lot of the internet. if they only near this was support for the freedom movement came with the sound economic foreign policy that makes sense. very simply, it means bringing our troops, and stop declaring all these on winnable -- un winnable wars. what did this do for our economies? of like to see all the chipsshould springing their money home. in the last 10 years, we have

spent over $4 trillium more. it is a cost of life and limb. the american people are tired of it. they are ready because they know this country is bankrupt. all nations go down because the overextend themselves. it is time for us to wake up. did not wait for an economic thing to hit. the greatest danger when we accept the notion that we're supposed to be the policeman of the world is that it is done at the expense of personal liberty. the purpose of all government

should be the protection of personal liberty for each and every one. we need to reverse the trends on the attack of our civil libertarians -- liberties. we need to appeal the patriot act and that the president has the authority to assassinate american citizens without trial. we need to appeal of the provision that says the president can use the military to arrest any american citizen and denied them a trial. send only people to washington. it said only people to the white house to read the constitution -- send only people to the white house who read the constitution. then we would have the full

understanding of how you have a peaceful thriving nation as to enforce the concept of liberty. this brings people together. people will use their liberty in different manners. we did not have to fight over it as long as they assume responsibility. it also suggests the fact that we have a right to our life and liberty. we should have the right to keep the fruits of our labor as well. we do not have to reinvent something. we had a great pass. we had a great middle-class. we undermined itst with taxation

and a foreign-policy that is flawed. all we have to do is return to our roots. in a short time we get have our peace and prosperity and a reliance on ourselves with their personal liberty. it has been a great week for the campaign. it has been a great past four years. five or seven years ago they did not know what was happening. with the crisis that hit, it the realization of these dividends of our federal reserve system the people know about it. they are awakening to this. their listing to the message.

it is up to do -- and they are listening to the message. it is up to us to do something about it. the message is loud and clear. the enthusiasm is here. it has to be translated into proper action. attending the caucuses that we want our -- sending attention to the caucuses that we want our freedom back. thank you very much.

>> rick santorum has also moved on to nevada. he's been for a little less than 10 minutes at his campaign headquarters and las vegas. >> thank you very much. it is great to be here in nevada.

we are here in beautiful las vegas. i think we are going to have little different results than what we saw previously. congratulations to governor romney. let me make one side comments. it is a very important comment. i just want to say to everyone when we had to jump off the campaign trail to care for our daughter it is a very trying time. it has been a pretty tough campaign. things in politics have gotten pretty nasty on both sides of the aisle and certainly across

the aisle. i have to say on behalf of our family we need the outpouring of support. i just want to say thank you for that support. bella had a tough couple of days but has turned around and is recovering. it is great to be on the campaign trail. that is the one message i think we got from the campaign in

florida. the republicans can do better. we can do better. we can do better than the discussion and the dialogue and the agitation that was going on in the state of florida. i went to florida and participated in the debates. at that we did a pretty good job. -- i thought we did a pretty good job. as i said in jacksonville, at the american people to stop what d.c. twoant to see candidates get into a mud wrestling debate. we are going to haeve differences. we need to talk about the differences. what we saw in the last few weeks is not something that will help us win this election. to help us win this election.

i will say it again, governor romney you have every right to go to the private sector and use the chips god has given you -- gifts god has given you and earn all of the money you can. i am not going to criticize you because that is how capitalism works. [applause] speaker degrees, you took the talent you have been their considerable. you took the effort and experience from working at the highest levels of government. we have concerns about a government that was trying to run over them. there is nothing wrong with that. i congratulate you on the work that you did on companies that deserve recognition. i'm not going to criticize you for that. [cheering and applause]

let's put those issues behind us and focus on the the real issues, defeating barack obama. [cheering and applause] we are not going to do that by mudslinging. we are going to do it by talking about the issues. homes are being foreclosed. jobs are not available the opportunity to start a business without the government breathing down their neck. that is what people want to hear about. they want to know how you contrast yourself with president obama. that is what this campaign has been about. tomorrow we are going to give a speech on getting rid of obamacare. [applause] we're going to talk about the

issues that are important to the people of the nevada, minnesota missouri, the states that our next in this next go-arounds. that is the issues -- we need a candidate who can get out on the issues of health care. draw a contrast -- a contrast with president obama. using environmentalism to crush the industry of our country. the contrast with president obama. we need someone on the issue of wall street and -- hinder in nevada they have suffered while folks have prospered. -- here in nevada they have suffered while folks up prospered. they have continued to get bailed out by a washington d.c.

we need someone who can draw that contrast. we need someone who can be a conservative nominee. in florida, and newt gingrich had his opportunity. he came out with a big win and a lot of money. he said i'm going to be the conservative alternative. it did not work. he became the issue. we cannot allow our nominee to become the issue. [applause] i say to the people of nevada and across this country if you want a strong conservative who is going to make barack obama the issue -- [cheering and applause] >> c-span's coverage of the road

to the white house continues on saturday. the same day that main's caucuses began to read the caucuses in colorado and minnesota are on february 7 with primaries in arizona and michigan on the 20th8th. you can go online to see the latest video of candid spend president obama. read what the candidates, reporters, and people like you are saying about the presidential race on facebook and twittered. . >> more now on the series of primaries and caucuses. this is 40 minutes. >> we are a joined now by the editor in chief of the national the journal for discussion of all things collection 2012.

thanks for joining us. we want to get your take on what you think is going to happen when the numbers come in tonight in florida. and what you mean the -- what to think that means for nevada and beyond. guest: it is nice to be here. i think we are going to see a big win for it -- to mitt romney. the most reliable polls we see have a romney leading by 20 points. it is likely is margin will be closer to 20 than a 12th. it feels like the race is breaking. newt gingrich had tried hard to compete. it looked like he might have a chance to win. florida is important because this is the first contest in which delegates, the folks who will go to the convention, are available. florida will award 50 delegates.

the winner will get all of those delegates. the person who wins tonight is going to be the leader in the delegate count. mitt romney is looking likely to come out ahead for the first time. >>host: tickets to a week from today in of backpacknevada. guest: >> we have a couple of primaries in colorado, minnesota, then it is day dry spell. and then a dry spell until late in the month when arizona and michigan pulled their primary. the interesting thing is all of those races are states in which

mitt romney should do well. arizona, colorado, they all have large mormon populations. there are places where it helps to build a base, a foundation. something romney has proven good at. it is hard to see or somebody like newt a team -- new talking int gingrich does well . ron paul has been better at turning his people out than any other candidate. this is his chance to gain those delegates. it is hard to see where they find a pocket of support. rick santorum is in missouri for a primary that does not award delegates. it is on the beauty contest. romney is prepared to leave

florida and go on this streak of wins in february that will not be as dramatic as the st. president obama had in 2008 when he established his lead over hillary clinton. it could be as defining of the race as obama over clinton. host: we want to point out two-story -- stories. talking about the presidential race could cried on and on. -- grind on and on. newt gingrich plans to stay on through august. ron paul has said it aims to press on long enough to amass a stable of delegates to require some negotiations. if they cannot win they want to prevent romney from winning a majority of delegates. talk to us about the idea of a brokered convention. how likely you see that.

guest: i do not think a brokered convention is likely. the nominee has to get delegate -- true to one of the delegates available. whoever is going to be, romney, has to go through the super tuesday states, those that hold their contest in april or june. we always make fun of it here when we see a newspaper clip that has a some local state saying our caucuses and might matter. there was a great clip and the other day and sang their primary might actually matter. the bottom line is these people, one of these candidates is likely to get a majority. it is probably going to be mitt romney. a majority of the delegates ron paul does not have to get a majority or prevent romney from a majority to have an impact at

the convention. if he goes to the convention, and he will get some of his delegates on a bunch of committees and he can do things like author minority reports to the platform and say we wanted this but everybody else voted us down. that can get embarrassing for the eventual nominee. what is likely to happen is he gets to negotiate and he gets to put some of his platform in the platform at large. he puts his guys on committees. that is what we're going to see from his campaign. he is not campaigning to win the delegates that are required to become the nominee but he is going to have an influence. host: we want to open up the phones to questions on campaign 2012. we want to do the standard campaign lines, for democrats 202-737-0001. for republicans, 202-737-0002.

for independents, 202-628-0205. if you are outside the u.s., 202-628-0184. the c-span campaign 2012 bus is visiting the university of tampa, florida. we have a few students helping us to rest questions today and we want to give a special thanks to those who prepare the students for the program and the bright house networks for sponsoring. let's start with a student down there. hamilton ryan? >> hello, reid. i recently read your article about mitt romney and his trouble getting the hispanic vote. more importantly, how do you see him doing in florida?

i know that he showed with a lead over newt gingrich in the last poll. it is looking like a big win for him tonight. i know that in 2008 john mccain overwhelmingly took the hispanic vote. how you see hispanic " getting behind mitt romney in future? guest: thank you for the question. -- hispanic vote getting behind mitt romney in future? guest: thank you for the question. the hispanic populations are rising so fast, and you are right, mitt romney did very well in 2008. amongst hispanics, he did very poorly.

rudy giuliani took 24%. mitt romney has to turn that around, if he is going to win tonight. we cited a number of surveys from yesterday that had mitt romney up by 20. all of the reliable polls have mitt romney leading by double digits. he is likely going to do well amongst hispanics, as he is made such an effort to reach out to hispanic voters. he has had hispanic language television ads running for weeks now. he has had spanish english bilingual pieces running to the dominant houses in florida. he has the support of the spanish establishment. folks like his brother, and even

david rivera -- the establishment republicans in the hispanic community, their support goes a long way. four years ago, they were with mitt romney, playing a big role. how do they relate on the national level? it will be a big problem. hispanic voters have consistently voted more for democrats by increasingly larger margins. in 2004, george w. bush took 44% of the hispanic vote. 2008, john mccain only manage 21%. the growing electorate is only helping democrats by wider and more -- wider and wider margins. republicans have to find a way

to talk to hispanics in ways that help them get out the republican message. unless they find a way to change that, they will have real problems in the future. host: this is from james talking about a conversation between newt and romney -- newt gingrich and ron paul. host: we also have this chart from "the new york times," today, talking about the conventions coming up. the 10th of march, super tuesday -- how many delegates are up? esther you have caught me. it is somewhere around 500 delegates. in the fourth quarter -- i cannot remember the exact number. the funny thing is, the number keeps changing.

texas was originally supposed to go on march 6, but because the redistricting process has been so chaotic, the district lines will not be drawn by that time. voting in the congressional and presidential primary, at the moment the day is june, depending on how they are able to do that. meanwhile, ohio has moved up to super tuesday. some states are still shuffling around. we have a concrete calendar now. just a few weeks ago, they were still moving around. host: let's go to todd in florida. good morning. >> -- caller: good morning. i am calling because i have a problem with the media kind of ignoring my guy.

i know that it is quite a problem for the media, because they really do not like him. i do not understand how it is that we can have a media that is supposed to be for people and able to do this to us. host: your guy is? caller: ron paul. but i feel like it is people like c-span -- i have been a lifelong republican supporter and i have never seen by some c- -- sen biasen bias by c-span, but suddenly you cannot see ron paul everywhere. i have been watching you to to -- youtube to try to get my news, because i cannot get it on the television anymore. i found out that florida has voter fraud problems. a man named pension had created a program to make voter fraud from the computers.

the former speaker of the house in florida hired him to make this program. what it does, this program it makes the boat come out 51-49 and they can pick the winner. through the years, i have always noticed that it was 51- 49. seems like the strangest thing. host: let's give reid wilson a chance. guest: i actually do want to talk about ron paul. his strategy is interesting. the reason he is not been seen anywhere in florida, ron paul has essentially skip florida. it is a winner-take-all state. he has moved on to other places. he has gone on to maine last week. some of the caucuses are already happening in maine.

later this month, today, he is in colorado. ron paul is pursuing this very strategic path to establishing a real contingent of delegates for the convention. i think that he is pursuing the smarter strategy for his own political say. this is the same way that president obama established a big lead over hillary clinton. understanding the rules of the game better than the other guys. if anyone understands the game better, it is mitt romney and ron paul. they know where the delegates come from, where to submit their signatures in every state. ron paul and mitt romney are the only two who have fielded a complete state of delegates in the state. ron paul is pretty smart here, in picking and choosing.

you are seeing him at three different stops in colorado. the other thing about ron paul is that it is hard to overstate the impact he had on the language of the republican party. one thing the you hear a lot when you go to various events, the only person that they do not want to vote for is ron paul. one of the first things that they will say is that the only person that they will not support as ron paul, because they disagree with him on this that or the other. take a listen to how some of these people sound. newt gingrich took a poll on going back to the gold standard. that is the ron paul message. that is the fundamental talking point. the republican candidates are talking about auditing the fed. talking about all of these things that, just four years ago, were crazy ideas that only ron paul had.

he has had as big of an impact on the way that his party speaks as someone like ronald reagan or barry goldwater. host: again, we are being joined by reid wilson, editor in chief at "a hot line." in 2008, he covered the cycle for the real clear politics blog. reid wilson, we want to go back down to the campaign bus in tampa, florida, this morning, at the university of tampa. it is a private university with seven students. -- 7000 students. one of those students has a question for us this morning. >> good morning. it is a pleasure to be talking with you this morning. a figure was put out by the new york fed that listed upwards of $550 billion in the united

states. for the student loan amount. the president's group lists a bailout recipient, along with current instability for the national economy. is this a feasible challenge for the president to undertake? what about an election year, where 72% of voters are in the primary? guest: it is absolutely smart for the president to do. he is talking about helping people with their debt. that is what americans want to hear right now. solutions from washington, d.c.. the problem is that it is not feasible from a legislative perspective. i saw a clip this morning that there were 984 roll call votes in congress, in the house last year. only 12 members voted on all of those. this year it is likely to be lower. there are not likely to be a

lot of legislative package is moving through congress, because it is election year. tensions are running high and that is how it works in washington, d.c.. the president can go out there and say -- look, this is what i want to do with student loans. host: are their estimates as to how big of a rule -- of a role the young vote is going to play in the upcoming election? guest: it is of course key to the president's campaign strategy. one of the things that he did best was change the face of the electorate. it was dramatically younger and more diverse than any electorate that has -- that has ever turned out.

thanks to his operation, he was able to get the voters out to the polls in levels that had not been done before. this is a key constituency for him and one that he has to make happy. host: back to the phones. john, vancouver, washington. good morning. caller: back stepping a little bit, talking about the states that are more populated -- i am a member of the church of jesus christ of latter-day saints. being a member does not necessarily mean i will vote for mitt romney. the official stance of the church is that we get involved as far as voting and running and that sort of thing, but the official stance of the church is that they do not have a particular person that we are supposed to vote for. i want to bring that up. he does not necessarily capture all of the mormon voters out there. i have friends who are voting for different candidates because they like what they hear. i wanted to bring that up. guest: a fair point.

by the way, you are in my home state and thank you for watching so early in the morning. it is a good and fair point, the church has been put in an awkward position by the mitt romney candidacy. they are not used to taking big political stands and they are doing their best to keep their distance. they do not want to be seen as overly influencing one side or the other. primarily because they do not want the church dragged into politics. the concern that many organized religions have. host: we have zachary peterson on the campaign 2012 bus this morning. good morning. caller: good -- >> good morning. in the past, unemployment has placed eight -- played a huge role in the election. and do you think it is slowly

decreasing? guest: the key challenge for president obama, as he seeks reelection, is to convince americans that the economy is going in the right direction. indicators may show it but people do not necessarily believe it. people still feel the pain of the economic recession. what are we at now, 8.4%? i am sure that that is better, but it is not as good as the 4% or 5% that most americans are used to. what the president has to do now, he has to feel the pain of the americans while still convincing them that he has done something about it and that things get better. that there is a silver lining to the dark cloud. we are seeing some indication in national surveys that his approval ratings are going up. that his job performance is

going up. especially amongst independent voters. his numbers are terrible right now. host: to abide and was talking about the states that he and the president was going to focus on. >> i have been given five states as a focus. pennsylvania ohio, michigan, iowa, a new hampshire i will spend the most of my time. that is a a -- where a lot of your targeted seats are. host: your thoughts on the campaign? guest: qhe said he will be

there. we are seeing that. he is headed to michigan later this week. he will spend some time and all of those states. he is going to be and record its presence. the prospects, one of the things he was talking about was how democrats are going to do. there are not all of a split ticket voters these days. there are a few. some democrats need those voters to keep their jobs. members like missouri montana both of whom are running in states that president obama is not going to win. they need those voters. that percentage of the population is getting smaller and smaller as we move toward a national political atmosphere or even a special action in organ becomes a focal point of the democrats or republicans.

host: we have about 15 minutes left. let's go to jennifer. caller: please give me a couple seconds to say what i have to say. first of all, i think the reason ok, our president could have done so much more if not for the republican party. everything he was for, they disagreed and the answer was always in now. they did not want him to come in for a second term. host: how big of an impact is that going to have? caller: so many people have said it. they have repeated the same thing. they do not like it. and we know what the congress,

democrats and republicans with their whatever you want to put it i think all of them will not come back. host: that was jennifer from louisville, ky. let's go back to the c-span 2012 bus at the university of tampa in tampa, florida. a question for you, reid wilson. caller: good morning. guest: good morning. caller: with the recent information that came out about the insider-trading legislation, how do you think that will affect the stances of either party going into their primaries and/or their conventions? guest: well, you are talking about the recent cbs piece on "60 minutes" the discussed insider trading among members of congress, or at least members of congress acting on information that they hear during the course of their daily lives. i'm not sure that will have a

big impact on the primary elections. what it will have a big impact on is the general election. we've already seen some candidates from around the country trying to claim credit for this idea, the stock act as it is called. scott brown in massachusetts the republican incumbent there has been trying to take credit for changing the way washington works. we are starting to see some clips in massachusetts newspapers giving him that credit. that is great for him, as he fights what could be an uphill battle for reelection. some other candidates around the country are using it as further proof that congress is broken and all the bonus -- the bums deserve to be kicked out. when congress has an approval rating between 8% and 15%, a lot of people agree that all the bums need to be kicked out. that will cost a lot of the incumbents their seats this year.

host: a comment on twitter from big gun. again, a comment from twitter. let's go back to tampa, florida. this time, on the line for independents, john is in tampa florida. good morning. caller: good morning. please give me a few minutes like our gal from kentucky. host: i do not know if we have a few minutes. go ahead. caller: i am an independent. i'm a veteran. i have an mba in international business. i've been doing consulting small businesses and mentoring people who want to start businesses. i look back of the great people who have served this country and have worked for what they want. now we have a lot of people that just want handouts from obama. again, i am an independent. i thank god every day the

republicans got in there and stop the obama, even with the democratic senate, house and obama in the white house it took them one year to pass obamacare. host: is there a republican you like in the race right now? caller: as an independent, when people ask me who i will vote for, basically, i will vote for any gop. my vote is to make sure we get obama out of there. it's a difference between socialist and a free society. host: that was john from tampa florida. a comment on twitter here. this refers back to one of our earlier callers. let's go back to the c-span 2012 bus. ashley is a student at the university of tampa. good morning. caller: good morning. how were you doing, reid? guest: doing fine. how are you? caller: i am doing well. thank you.

mitt romney [inaudible] support of hispanics. i think the major concern is how he will receive support of young adults. in 2008, obama was able to do this. in the state of the union address, he talked about giving $55 million in grants. what is mitt romney's response and what will this strategy have to be to compete with president obama? host: reid wilson, a question about overall strategy there. guest: one of the interesting things about the florida primary specifically, the electorate at large, the population that's over 65 is about 15% or 17%. in the republican primary, that

percentage will be almost 1/3. it was 1/3 in 2008. the electorate is largely older. they will not play as big a role in today's primary as older voters will. moving forward, republicans need to reach out to these younger voters and capture these feeble who already voted for obama once. the under an american is the more likely they were in 2008 to vote for president obama. it is going to be a big challenge for republicans to find a way to communicate with this new, younger generation. there will be no shortage of outrage -- of our reach. republicans realize they have this opportunity to reach out to a new generation. they just haven't figured out a way to do it it. with president obama on the ballot, i think democrats are likely to keep their advantage

among the younger voters. and the long run republicans need to find a way to communicate with those voters. host: about five or 10 minutes left with reid wilson, "hotline" editor in chief. let's go to pleasant grove utah. peter on the line for republicans. good morning. caller: good morning. i am a senior citizen and i'm concerned with the payroll tax cut last year. 2% was diverted from the social security funds. 2% on the employee side and 2% on the employer side. they diverted $166 billion from social security and ran at $65 million in the red. host: that will be a major issue in 2012? caller: yeah, i think that should be a concern. we need to know what candidates if they want to say the social security fund -- the

congressman and senators -- half of the funds going into the social security fund will be diverted. host: reid wilson, talking a little bit about social security as a campaign issue coming up. guest: both sides are going to try to use social security as a cudgel to beat the other side with. congressman paul ryan's budget has given them an opportunity to say republicans want to change all entitlement programs fundamentally and take away your rights. there's a lot of scare language on that side. on the other side, some republicans are saying the system really is broken and we have to figure out a way to fix social security and medicare going forward. otherwise, it's not going to be there. that is the warning about another incumbent -- you know, it in coming financial tsunami of red ink.

both sides will talk about these entitlement programs a lot. democrats will warned that republicans want to fundamentally change the system. republicans will want to warn the democrats are not doing anything to actually find the -- fund the system and that the system is broken. i think we will see a lot of hyperbole on both sides on this one. host: back in tampa, florida is joshua, a student at the university of tampa. caller: hi. cowrie doing today? -- how are you doing today? although ron paul does not have as much money as mitt romney and newt gingrich, is it safe to say that his lack of financial fortitude automatically excludes them from any chance of significant success in this race? guest: not at all. if you take a look at the reports that will be filed today with the federal election commission, you might find that ron paul has significantly more money than newt gingrich does. if there's one thing ron paul

knows how to do, it's raised a lot of money. he sort of pioneer to the idea of the money bomb and has been very successful at doing that. newt gingrich struggled with money in the early parts of his campaign. host: reid wilson, where does rick santorum fit in? does he still have a path to victory moving forward. guest: i hate to say it, but i think rick santorum days are numbered on the campaign trail fit as i mentioned earlier he is in missouri -- he was there yesterday. their primary next week does not actually allocate any delegates. it's sort of like competing in a contest that doesn't matter. none of the other candidates are campaigning here. it's curious that he decided to move there. at this moment, the big problem for all the not-romney candidates in february is they are living hand to mouth right now. absent a big win and a big influx of money, they will

essentially have to survive a month of losses without taking in the kind of money that they will need to be on the air in the super tuesday states for example. mitt romney has got that advantage. by the way, ron paul does, too. we've already seen ron paul advertising in places like colorado and thinking ahead. santorum and gingrich have not been present in those states. they've been focusing on the crisis at the moment, which is what every election is happening next, and then swinging wildly to the next eight. host: an article from foxnews.com. "will the geography of the primary zinc newt gingrich -- primary sink newt gingrich in february?"

host: we were talking about misery a second ago. let's go to -- we were talking about missouri a second ago. let's go to rex. caller: you talk about ron paul skipping florida. as a ron paul supporter, i agree with the winner take all. because they change the primary dates, they lost something like 30 delegates. guest: they lost 50 delegates. caller: ok, 50. the only thing i want to take issue with -- i do not buy into the concept that the media ignores ron paul because he is not in florida. it has been ignored since free much a one. -- pretty much day one. although we can talk about the candidate, what is really being translated, the supporters like myself who are marginalized by the media and the republican party. i can tell you i have worked pretty hard in this area and organized for ron paul.

most of the supporters agree on this. this is our message. people like romney -- we are not switching over. we are not going to vote gop for the lesser of two evils. that is what has caused all the problems. it's either obama and paul or nothing. at this point, the administration that we have is basically bush part two. host: reid wilson, i want to get one more students in from the university of tampa bus. caller: good morning. in this primary, we've seen an unprecedented escalation in negative campaigning. how do you think this mudslinging will affect voter turnout among the younger population? host: reid wilson, in about the one minute we have left. guest: i do not think this is an unprecedented level of negative campaigning at all. this is the same sort of campaigning that we see nonstop. the last three cycles in a row

2006, 2008, 2010 -- americans are used to voting against the guy in charge. another advertising works. what is different this year is the order of magnitude from different groups. a few years ago it was 501-c3's and now it is superpacs. this is not going away. this is not a trend that's going to slack off anytime soon. in fact, i think money will play a bigger role in politics. to say that there's more negative campaigning than ever before is not entirely accurate. this is just more negative campaigning that we are paying attention to. host: reid wilson, will have to end its there. thank you for joining us. >> we have a responsibility. for those of you, the creation

of literature, you have a responsibility. can you create anything you want and still comfortable with recreation or must you sent to yourself to decide i cannot offend anybody? >> this weekend william foster on the n word. also on american history tv, he changed the reading habits of americans. lookit hendry -- a look at henry luce. and sunday, the oil boom hits. a gusher makes texas leading oil-producing state. visit the infamous streets of beaumont, texas. this weekend on c-span 3. >> coming up, the head of the

congressional budget office releases the economic forecast. and in a little more than an hour, we will hear from mitt romney. the winner of the florida primary. you will also hear from newt gingrich who finished second. >> on "washington journal, we will be joined by tim ryan novo cayo, co-chair of the manufacturing caucus. the senator is from south carolina and the author of "now or never." you'll take your questions. and we'll talk about the anniversary with gideon rose. live every day at 7:00 a.m. eastern. >> next, douglas says he expects unemployment to remain 8.9% this

year. economic growth will remain slow. he also spoke about extending the payroll tax cuts set to expire in march. they released their new forecast on tuesday. this is an hour 15 minutes. >> thank you for coming. i'm the director of the congressional budget office. our mission is to provide congress with objectives of budget and economic issues. part of the way we fulfill that mission is to prepare outlooks, the latest of which we released to this morning. i will summarize the report and then my colleagues and i will be happy to take your questions. let me begin by noting our baseline projections are conditioned on current law.

not because we expect there will be no changes but because this approach provides a benchmark against which potential changes can be measured. we're presenting a benchmark not a forecast. that has an impact on the economic and budget projections. what is our assessment of the out what? the pace of the recovery has been slow since the recession ended. we project it will continue to be slow for the next two years, reflecting the lingering effects of the financial crisis and the fiscal restraint that will arise under current law. specifically, policy will reduce the growth in 2012 and 2013. three combination of increases and cuts. our projections incorporated upcoming expiration of the

payroll tax cut unemployment benefits. expiration of the tax cuts enacted in 2001, 2003 and 2009 as well as other provisions. the constraints on spending and the winding down of the budgetary effects of the 2009 recovery act. taken together, they will generate a sharp contraction in addition, the number of houses, the run-up in debt and other legacies of the downturn, are continuing to weigh on household spending. as a result, we project gdp will grow by only 2% this year and only 1% next year. we expect activity to quicken after 2013. gdp to remain below the economy's potential through 2017. according to our projections the economy is only halfway

through the a cumulative shortfall that will result from the recession. that that is immense. day and are borne -- they are borne disproportionately by people who lose their jobs. people who own businesses that fail. in particular, the labor market still has a tremendous amount of flak, mainly as a consequence of continued weakness of demand in goods and services. the unemployment rate remained above 8%. as economic growth picks up, the unemployment rate will decline. in our production, it remains above 7% until 2015. before dropping to 5.25%. while the economy continues to be weak, inflation and interest rates remain low.

let me turn to a budget projection. under current law, we expect this deficit will be about 1.1 trillion dollars. at 7% of gdp, that is two percentage points less than the deficit last year. it is still larger than any deficit between 1947 and 2008. over the next few years deficits in the baseline at narrow sharply as you can see in the picture, averaging 1.5% of gdp and totaling $3 trillion. deficit small relative to the size of the economy, it drops a little as share of gdp but remains high. much of the projected decline occurs because under current law, revenues will rise

considerably. between 2012 and 2014, revenues in our baseline shoot up by more than 30%. because of the expiration of tax provisions and new taxes and other collections that our struggle to go into affect. -- effect. federal spending declined modestly relative to gdp. as the economy expands and capps constrain discretionary appropriations. later in the decade, spending turns up again relative to gdp. increasing expenses generated by the aging of the population and the rising cost of health care and the accumulation of debt will cause a surge in interest costs. of course, these projections are heavily influenced by the changes and caps and spending policies that are embodied in current law. changes represent a significant departure from recent policies.

to illustrate the budgetary consequences that that been in effect, the cbo develop productions under an alternative scenario. that scenario and corporates the following assumption. first, all expiring tax provisions other than the payroll tax are extended. second, the alternative mitt the -- minimum tax is indexed for inflation after 2011. third, timid are held constant at the current level. fourth, automatic spending reductions required by the absence of legislation did not take affect. in this scenario, the original cap in that act will remain in place. under that alternative this

goal -- fiscal scenario, the deficit over the 2013, 2022. will be far higher than in the baseline. averaging 5.5% of gdp rather than 1.5%. totaling $11 trillion rather than $3 trillion. under this scenario, debt held by the public would climb on and a sustainable path, reaching 94% of gdp by 2020 to. -- 2022. under that scenario, the economy would be stronger during the next two years than under current law. it would be noticeably weaker later in the decade. the report presents estimates using branches of members to reflect the uncertainty involved.

the midpoint shows a scenario that is 2% higher. an unemployment rate that is lower. the mid-range 42022 shows more than 2% lower under this scenario. because of the crowding out of investment that will be caused by escalating debt. projections are difficult. many things can cause the economy to turn out better or worse than we project. however, there is no plausible income that would lead to a sustainable the outcome. a fundamental challenge for this decade and beyond remains the aging of the population and rising costs for health care. the number of people 65 or older

will increase by one-third in the coming decade. that will raise the cost of social security, medicare, and medicaid. the affordable care act will increase the number of non- elderly people receiving assistance. furthermore, the cost per enrollee for social security will continue to rise. because of these forces, the budget policies that were in effect cannot be maintained in the future. here's one way to think about the problem, using our projections. this represents the continuation of many recent and current policies. each pair of cars represents a component of the federal budget. with the left bar of the paris showing the average during the past 40 years and the right barr, a projection. under the scenario for social

security and the health care programs, the first set of bars would be much higher than it was in the past. all other federal programs put together, these set of bars are projected to be about 8% of gdp. below any year in the past 40 years. well below the 11% of gdp they have averaged over that period. the budget deficit is projected to be 6.1% of gdp in 2002. to keep the debt from rising, the deficit would need to be about three private by% of gdp or smaller. -- 3.5% of gdp or smaller. that is $900 billion of production, relative to this scenario. to put the budget on a

sustainable path, the policy makers will need to allow federal revenues to increase to a much higher percentage of gdp than the average of the past 40 years or make very large changes to social security and federal health-care programs or pursue some combination of those approaches. let me close by highlighting the consequential to voices that the policy facers -- policymakers face this year. if believe current law unchanged, the federal and government will recede to the size of the economy. this will happen because of a large increase in revenues and a sharp decrease on that spending. both of those changes from historic patterns of have significant economic and social effects. with the fiscal restraint, it will markedly slow the economic recovery. on the other hand, and changing

carl laws and letting current policies continue along the lines of the alternate scenario would boost the economy and allow people to pay less in taxes and benefit more from government programs, but would put the nation on and on sustainable fiscal course. bank policymakers want to achieve a short-term economic boost, they would need to enact policies that would be narrower than we project under this alternative scenario for later in the decade. in conclusion, how much and how quickly the deficit declines will depend in part on how well the economy does. probably more critical will be the choices made by lawmakers as they face the changes to tax and spending policies to take effect

within the next year. thank you. we are happy to take your questions. please identify yourself and your organization for which you report. yeah. >> the alternative fiscal scenario does not -- >> that is right. >> can you give your estimate as to what would happen if it were extended to the end of the year? >> we provide this in the report. if the payroll tax cut were extended it would add $75 billion to the fiscal year 2012 deficit and $25 billion to a 2013 triple .